economics reporter steve liesman is there in wyoming. with us ron insana, senior analyst and commentator and adviser to schroeder and a. help us make ceps to the new numbers first. what does it say about where we stand in tackling inflation? >> the inflation data contained within the gdp report was still a little bit on the stiff side relative to what fed wants. the core rate of inflation they look at within this report was still about, i think it was over 4.5%, and the fed wants to bring that down rather substantially. having said that, the argument for a recession is also been kind of poo-pooed and steve can speak to them, analysts that do not believe we are in recession despite two quarters of back-to-back contractions. the economy is too strong for that to be the case and it's putting, given the low unemployment rate, additional pressure on the fed to keep raising rates. >> steve to you and what you're hearing on the ground there? >> well, you know, recession question is a big one here, and most fed officials that we have spoken to d

steve liesman joins us after a sleepless night that happens on the first thursday of every month. >> yeah, always on the edge of my seat and the edge of my bed all night, on this jobs report wall street expecting slower payroll growth, we have a series of headwinds and tail winds hitting this jobs market st sharp increases in inflation here are the number wes we're looking for 258,000 the unemployment rate remains unchanged. average hourly earnings up a modest .3% pandemic is unwinding some hiring that's out there that industries overhired you industrial a pandemic rebound going on a host of industries remain below this march 2020 or pre-pandemic levels. nursing care off by a quarter million, local education still down by 300,000. leisure and hospitality off by 1.3 million. a lot of hiring. some industries surged during the pandemic like internet retailing or trucking. they could have too many workers. the overall payroll level remains below the pre-pandemic level even while economic activity exceed it is. we could see hiring strength almost despite what happens in the economy as emp

liesman now. gas prices are down but food and rent are up. how are we supposed to see this? >> so the headline and the core inflation numbers on food and energy were better than exec, but they're both too high still. and both are the results of a combination of head winds and tail winds hitting the economy some are easier to complain. you've got gas prices falling at the pump because oil prices and gas prices are down and commodity markets is an easy one. some prices are falling because consumers are having sticker shock. take airline prices they've fallen for two straight months but that's after they were up 80% year over year so some americans could be thinking twice about taking that trip because of high fares and the sticker shock affording essentials gas prices down but remaining high housing and medical care inflation are both elevated as well so americans have to be careful with their disposable dollars. took a while, shep, to get into this inflationary message and going to take some doing,

we'll be in wyoming where the chair will be set to speak steve liesman will be all over it >>> let's turn to the markets now, where my next guest warns kind of like we heard from annetteta, that inflation could stay high longer than expected, which is also what we're hearing out of certain fed members these days which fed actions will prove most supportive for the heart attacks. let's ask charlie bribrinskoi at aerial investments i guess the question is, there's often perceived to be this trade-off, right the fed can be a little more dovish in the near-term, maybe where do you see it as them having the greatest bang for the buck for the markets and what's the right course they should take for investors who want to see positive, you know, returns on risk assets for the next several years here? >> well, there's the right course, that i think that they should take, and then there's the course that i expect them to take and unfortunately, those aren't the same right now the fed got embarrassed. the fed officials who said there was no inflation and then when there clearly was inflation, s

steve liesman joins us with the economic view from the c-suite hey, steve. >> full of reasons for concern even in some cases it's a bit more upbeat. there are marquee warnings about consumers from walmart and best buy. the outlook is more mixed by company and by industry. >> we're seeing good activity across both the consumer and commercial portfolios, and i think that really bodes well for the environmental we're in right now. >> overall, i think the consumer is not doing bad my view at the moment, things are not so bad. >> the summer has been a blockbuster. we see steady recovery in business sfloovl we expect continued growth in the second half and are planning an increase on consumer demand for the holiday season. >> i've seen a lot of stress i see the same numbers that you see, and we know there are trade-offs it's mostly hitting those in lower socioeconomic tiers. >> we're getting pinched by all this inflation. >> demand continues to be strong as you know, we've got a very strong labor market consumer balance sheets are generally strong things are very good no recession. >> there's a

wti's at 89, down by 2.75% let's get to steve liesman >> 132,000, adp using new methodology. 132,000 new jobs krcreated, les than 268,000 from july goods sector, we are able to get some of the same calculations from the prior survey as well. so small business, 25,000. and can you see double that for both medium and large-sized businesses looking at it again, the leisure and hospitality sector does trend. interestingly, education health services were down by 15,000 i can't tell for sure if that's a seasonal adjustment issue. manufacturing unchanged, prerhas picking up some of the weakness. a new aigsddition. for those in the same job year-over-year, up 7.6%. but look at that per job changes. this is picking up something we've seen in other data as well up 16% if you change jobs. so melissa and joe, i don't know if that's something you guys have been thinking about but if you did, you'd be in the double digits. that job stayers number is also higher than the government numbers. i don't know, we can talk to our guest. nila, are you there? >> i am here >> investors aren't really here to

liesman from jackson hole for more on powell's speech. wall street's reaction, steve. what strikes you most here five hours later? >> you know, it's the market what they were anticipating, mike it looks like they were thinking the fed would come forward and get a more dovish speech from the fed chair. instead jay powell in his much-anticipated speech here at jackson hole taking pains, taking strides to say the fed is going to be resolute in its fight against inflation, even warning, and something i've not heard from a fed chair before, the possibility that it could cause some pain to businesses and households. >> restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a stricter stance for some time. this cautions strongly about prematurely loosening policy. >> powell making a specific point about warning investors about making too much in the recent decline in inflation saying it's not enough to change the fed's course, at least not early on. >> while the lower inflation readings for july are certainly welcome, a single month's improve

liesman with more. what do you think, steve >> you know, andrew, the market reaction was pretty swift and pretty negative. more jobs meant more fed, according to most people in the market surging above 70% from 40% the terminal rate going from 340 to 367 as the market decided more job creation meant more inflation which meant more rate hikes. but hold on. it's a bit of a quandary for the fed. what if jobs are an important issue to the inflation problem what if one reason for higher prices is lack of supply of workers, and a putting workers back to work could be part of the solution the u.s. economy in july only just now recovered the $22 million lost during the pandemic that's a great thing except look at it. that explains the tight labor market businesses throughout the economy are scrambling to find wor workers, some because of growth industries, and some just to get back to where they were before the pandemic here's the result. an economy operating with too few workers reduces the supply and gives pr

. >>> senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us with more on the story steve? >> yeah, david, richmond fed president tom barkin in just the past hour, adding to the stream of fed-speak, saying he found the july inflation report an improvement, but a return to the 2% target would not happen immediately. he said the fed would do what it takes to bring inflation down s the fed officials have a more optimistic outlook jim bullard says rate cut speculation was premature, and mary daly in san francisco, says the marketshave a lot of understanding rates won't go down as -- and the fed may need to do more he doesn't know if recession can be avoided and esther george, once the biggest hawk on the board, now maybe more dovish, saying not a time for a victory lap the markets and fed are in line with where the rates been going to 3.5%. next year is in contention markets priced in 3.25 first is the amount, the other is the direction the fed would have to hike and begin cutting rapidly for the market to get this right but fed officials seem intent on convincing markets the m

who better to does what that means than our senior economics reporter, steve liesman. good morning. >> another better than expected report this people, it makes it 2 for 2 for the week, and there may be better news for investors. ppi falling half a point against the forecast for a 0.2 increase. it marks the first time the measure has been out of the double digits since december 2021 the year over year right now running at 8%. still high, but headed for the right direction for the third month in a row that suggests continued pressure on margins, but the ppi is falling faster, that says some relief for corporate profits could be in the off if the trend continues. a big part of the decline, but even when you take it out, you see lessening pressure up the pipeline the further you go, the less inflation. final demand, ex-energy, it was up 0.2%. intermediate goods fall, and crude goods declining by 3.2%. larry summered want yesterday, don't put too much in one month of good numbers. that's probably good advice. if the fed needs several months in a row to ease back, it's poss

liesman has a look at that gap in thinking today, steve >> carl, investors as they say in britain, to mind of gap several fed officials insisting the market has it wrong. bullard saying he expects the fed to be higher for longer, and cash k-- kashkari saying yesterday -- some financial markets are indicating they need to cut interest rates next years. i don't want to say that's imbalance, but i would say that's a unlikely scenario here's the issue right here. both markets and the fed are pretty much in line for this year with 100 basis points, but next year, the market has cuts priced in. obviously the economy and especially inflation will determine who's got this right a full-blown recession could create those -- and then again a recession with still high inflation that's a quandary for the fed. it means rates might not come down since the -- it's tended to overestimate rates in the first year, it projected 2016 rates at 140, and ended at 0.24 the past two years, they have a better track records record. this time could be different no one really cared back then that inflation came in

steve liesman is in washington, and has more for us on what we can expect and what it may signal for the fed's next move. >> there's a widespread opinion that the minutes will be hawkish, leaning against the market view there was some kind of pivot at the last meeting citi in a different note writing that the minutes should confirm that powell's comments were foreshadowing a dovish pivot rather, the fed remains committed to tightening financial conditions, meaning they minutes bear hawkish risk stocks have kept on rallying even after federal official have insisted the market was wrong to price in cuts next year. not only does the market have to risk, but i'm wondering is this the u.s. is headed as the uk there's also u.s. retail sales that came in lower than expected the results, anyway, somewhat higher for fed rate hikes, that puts the market closer in line, this time next year. the question is how much confidence does the equity market have in its own forecast. a forecast that is underpinned this powerful rally off the bottom, bus which federal officials have leaned against. a 50%

. >>> the federal reserve is about to ratchet up kwquantitative tightening steve liesman is here with a little-known reason why this may not create the trouble that it has in the past. steve? >> yeah. it's complicated but i think it's important story what is that complicated cbi the federal reserve is two and a half months into quantitative easing it should put upward pressure on interest rates, but hang on a second rates on the long end have been remarkably stable. the ten-year is even down a little bit since the announcement of the fed's plans in early may it may well be fear of recession, a policy pivot, but there's something else going on that isn't widely known. the treasury has actually been reducing the size of its quarterly issuance partially offsetting the qt. treasury net new issuance has declined every quarter it's estimated it will drop again. they are estimates based on projections from the treasury. so why is this happening first, treasury issued a lot of debt preemptively during the pandemic, not all of which it ended up needing debt is still going up, just not as fast