tom: it's amazing. [over talk] jon: ray dalio coming up with tom keene little later. tom: we will open up bridgewater. jon: a representative from ubs coming up shortly. stay on top of the markets right here on bloomberg. ♪ here on bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (an

jonathan: you will have tom keene singing dancing queen in no time. tom: i never got abba. jonathan: i didn't either. what was the movie they did recently? mama mia. weren't people fired up about that? tom: kaylee sought 14 times. kailey: twice. broadway is back. jonathan: i don't like broadway either. tom: this is more important. abba couldn't tie "pitch perfect's" shoelaces. jonathan: you were back -- you reckon sebastian still on the line? he woke up this morning and the first thing he heard was tom keene singing abba. >> i'm on my way to work and i turned bloomberg on and it's tom keene singing abba. it was unexpected to say the least. jonathan: can we talk about markets sir. china, the fed, of the debt ceiling, take your pick. is it uncomfortable being long equity markets now? >> it is uncomfortable but over time you have to stay invested in diversified. right now we have under weighted our portfolio slightly on equities by about 1%. you were talking earlier about the wall of worries, i will give you three 3 -- big bricks. i don't think evergrande is a big brick on the

once again with my partner in crime, tom keene. welcome back. the ecb decision just around the corner. tom: i don't know if it is a big deal or if they will do anything. i have to admit, this is where lagarde gets tested at the press conference. does she want to be assertive? i have not observed that. jonathan: the risk today, a reduction in the pace of

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. prepare for wednesday. tom: i am going to listen to the weekend. it is my book of the year. we spoke to a professor. all of the debt that is out there, i am starting the book. jon: you are fired up. tom: jon they are doing an exclusive deal. i am fired up. jon: it really is operation get to the weekend. lisa: literally, we were just making our weekend plans. what is going to change right now? jon: you are taking the day off, clearly you do not think it is. the projections from the federal reserve. tom: what do you think? jon: we caught up with, he said all it would take would be a change in the probabilities. pretty much everyone is forecasting no change with the ecb. tom: i look at three moving average studies and when the three averages come to a point, that describes stasis. we are not there yet, jon, but give it a week or two. jon: it is the story of the bond market. good morning to you all. we will try to make it a little more exciting as the show progresses. yields pretty much w

lisa: tom keene was camping out under any capacity. i will just say that image will not fade today, throughout the day. today, i am looking at a lot of economic data, and particular 8:15 a.m., we get a preview of what to expect on friday. we get the u.s. adp private employment. actually come again, exceeding 600,000, twice as much as the previous reach. again, the theme of the day is how much has momentum been dampened by the delta variant, by the worries about higher inflation? also today, at 10:00 a.m., i am particularly interested in the ism manufacturing data coming out of the united states, after we saw input prices climb yet again, unfilled orders rise to a record in europe overnight. how much of that is what we are seeing in the united states? how much is it crimping the ability of people to go out there and buy stuff. toilet paper, evidently, back in supply. why are we talking about toilet paper? a virtual meeting to discuss those october supply increases, production increases. they brought about 45% of all idled output back on

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. going into saturday, sunday, monday, tuesday, wednesday, said decision day. tom: stop at sunday. tottenham-chelsea is what i'm looking at. i will say tuesday, maybe the markets liven up. jon: and then straight onto november 3. 2/3 of economists surveyed expect that to be the time when the federal reserve makes that call. tom: before i get to andrew at a smart conversation, jon, is this about the lack of shift of service sector growth? is it about another thing? a third thing? a fourth thing? jon: all of the above. tom: imf the halfway line drowning. -- i am at the halfway line drowning. jon: people are pushing that to the back end of the year. that might give people a little more comfort to wait, just a bit more time. that is the view from a lot of people on the street. tom: what about commodities? jon: crude, energy prices. what is happening in the u.k. right now? the winds stopped blowing. tom: that is idiosyncratic. what i am paying for fancy pickles. jon: i am with you. we turned

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are -0.3% on the s&p. four days of losses on the cards. tom: i love that we had ben laidler optimistic. douglas cast watching. he's very cautious on the market. he looks for a market hurricane. jonathan: i don't know if the sarcasm translates or not over bloomberg radio. they have been really marginal moves into thursday. in about 45 minutes, the ecb joins in. tom: everybody is going to hang on every word of the press conference. you are expert on it. but the press conference may have some real value. she's got to change the dialogue in what way? jonathan: we should get some understanding about the pace of purchases. 30 minutes past the next hour, it is the news conference. at the start of the news conference, you will get some forecasts just in terms of what they do with their outlook for inflation. tom: we just heard from johns hopkins university. the pandemic is no different over there. she's got to be pandemic affected. jonathan: that is the story for the pandemic emerges the p

tom keene, do you want to comment on this one. the irony? tom: the mayor was there as well and carol maroney. she wore a fire department coat a few years ago and came out last night with a statement on e.r.a.. to me it was an important celebration given the pandemic. it was trying to get out, trying to get back to normal. i drove by the tents coming down this morning. i ran into ben platt at duane reade on madison avenue. jonathan: in all denim? tom: yes, he was all in life blue. jonathan: you're being very diplomatic this morning. tom: i set i love your shoes, they are like what jonathan ferro wears. jonathan: both talk about fairness. everyone agrees we want to make it fair, so let's talk about what is fair. i know it is politically incorrect to have a conversation about this but we mentioned a statistic, the top 1% pay 40% of federal income taxes. the tax systems is one of the most progressive tax systems on the planet. when more progressive than what you see from elsewhere. if you asked a lot of people in america, particular people who v

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market bouncing back 29 on the s&p, up 0.7%. it is a bounce back. the nasdaq up 0.9%. tom: all we are talking about our winter they asked about is when are they going to raise just rates. there's a fair number of people saying you got it wrong. they are not going to raise rates in 2022. everybody calm down. jonathan: sabre malik of nuveen nailing -- saira malik of nuveen really nailing it. at the long end, i'm not sure. i think we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. we need to discuss that a little bit more. tom: the dynamics of the long end into the short end are important. the first thing i'll that when i walked in today was a yield -- first thing i looked at when i walked in today was the yield. i know michael dard is a big believera in it, the scope of the curve. it is not inflammatory yet. lisa: i don't really understand it either. i don't understand what is behind this move because we heard from fed chair jay powell, a little more hawkish, a little more of a time

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down six after yesterday's rally. we are down a little more than 0.1% on the s&p 500. it is about claims. it is about retail sales. tom: of course, all of this to the fed meeting and what it means for the stock market. if you are getting out of your

tom keene, one more day of rest. it has been a mild move lower in the equity market and the feds are starting to make a little more noise. lisa: let's not call them true bears. increasing number of banks are coming up with underperform on u.s. equities. this is not a worldwide collapse. the idea is that people are so bullish sleep position, we will get -- bullish sleep -- bullishly positioned. >> there are a number of risk factors throughout the next six days. he also talked about policy risk and legislative risk. what is happening down at capitol hill, or what is not happening. now was not the time to be heavily advocated -- allocated. jonathan: the next two months carry an outside risk. lisa: i feel like i should start growling, the bears making some noise. you want me to make -- get worked up about a bearish downtrend. i do not know what will trigger it. what economic outlook will send stocks down? you can see the tech stocks do even better. the question really is around taxes, corporate taxes, as well as an unexp

once again with my partner in crime, tom keene. welcome back. the ecb decision just around the corner. tom: i don't know if it is a big deal or if they will do anything. i have to admit, this is where lagarde gets tested at the press conference. does she want to be assertive? i have not observed that. jonathan: the risk today, a reduction in the pace of purchases in the program with any sale about the degree of support that goes beyond next year. you can call it tape or if you want to, but you have to be clear that a tapered from the ecb could be different from a taper from the federal reserve. tom: i will go with that as well. with the pandemic and the uncertainty out there, every central bank wins by delay. i don't think the ecb is any different. jonathan: every line in that news conference will be interrogated by everybody. lisa: christine lagarde does not always delivered in that type of circumstance. i love the idea that we are talking about a dovish taper. that is the new code. exactly. ubs talking about the doorway she ecb taper. jonathan

tom keene taking a long weekend. futures down 17. off the back of the biggest one-day pop in the s&p 500 going back to july. lisa: you know he is screaming at his tv now. trying to interject as much as he can. is there an entry point? yesterday's move was notable -- notable because it was a move. is this a sustainable reassertion of the reflation trade? that is yet to be determined. jonathan: let's get to bitcoin, down 5.5% off the back of headlines suggesting china will call every crypto transaction illegal. kailey: this is your entry point, tom. down 5.5%. there is a question of china's continued crackdown on cryptocurrencies, not anything new, but this more firm hardline on transactions comes at an interesting time for xi jinping. jonathan: concerns about capital flight, on top of the news we had earlier this morning. a suggestion that regulators and officials in china are trying to take control over the funds of evergrande to make sure the houses that did not get built will get built. lisa: the wall street journal report that chi

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up four on the s&p, advancing 0.1%. the data 90 minutes away. tom: we are going to talk gold in this first block of the show. please stay with us on radio and tv. i've got to admit, this inflation is a different look on the screen. 5%-ish, that is a new level for america. jonathan: mohamed el-erian this morning, "deficient aggregate demand has given way to frustrating supply rigidities. they are not going away anytime soon." that is the conversation in the world of economics right now. tom: it is really important. he goes back to macroeconomics and the dynamics of demand and supply. everybody has an opinion on this. i'm technology to the rescue. we need to buy a new iphone. jonathan: or maybe two or three or four, or maybe five for christmas. i'm looking forward to how much you've got to spend a little later this year. on the policy front, we have to ask how much more of this can they tolerate before they have to turn around and say the message needs to change. lisa

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. waking up on monday to some risk aversion. on the. s&p, -1.3%. some payment data coming up today for some bank loans. yields come in on treasuries, down to 1.33%. down 2% and change on wti. through g10, some dollar strength out there. tom: i think it is right to watch euro, one dollar 17's and -- $1.1713. with us is annmarie hordern. we don't have a clue what is going to happen in washington this week. an open question. how is the debt ceiling linked to the migration from $3.5 trillion to a lower? annmarie: these are two separate things -- a lower statistic? annmarie: these are two separate things. the debt ceiling, what we are potentially going to get a vote on this week, these are actually two different plans we have to watch through congress. this is election of the debt ceiling and an appropriations bill to make sure we can keep the government open. that would only last until early december, and would also be a for the likes of afghanistan -- would also be aid for the likes of afg

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market bouncing back again. we've seen this movie before. up to 12 on the s&p, advancing 0.3%. we've got to get things off this morning with another downside surprise out of china. tom: the news flow is extraordinary this morning. we are going to cram it into three hours of radio and television. i believe ferro will move it forward in clock hour. china is truly front and center. this is about tough economic data, and my litmus papers, the 30 year u.s. bond coming in nicely under 1.3%. jonathan: 2.5% against an estimate of 7%. tom: leland miller will say, can we trust the data? i think it is the trend of the data, and the trend is below 6% gdp, and that is a new china, never mind the overlay of everg rand and all of it. jonathan: we certainly taken some heat of this federal reserve going into next week. lisa: you are talking about cpi yesterday. i think one aspect that equity investors are focused on is the fact that ppi, prices of the inputs a lot of companies are using, a

tom keene sitting down with him in greenwich, connecticut. then we've got a fed decision on wednesday. futures up 33, up zero point 75%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: new data suggest of johnson & johnson's vaccine increases the potency of the one-time shot. the booster was 100% effective against disease when given two months after the first inoculation. a second study found that the additional shot lead to a 12 fold increase in the production of antibodies when it was given six months after the first one. won in canada, prime minister justin trudeau -- in canada, prime minister justin trudeau won a third term in parliament, but failed to secure a parliamentary geordie -- parliament three majority. boris johnson meets president biden washington today. johnson says he would rather have a good deal than a quick one. uber posted a corporate loss, now saying it may be about to post its first profit. the company said adjusted earnings in the fourth quarter could range from flat to $100 million global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg q

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. equity futures down 37. yields are higher by five basis points to 1.54%. crude is positive, stronger to $76.26. euro-dollar -0.1%. a cyclical twist to this market in the last several days. tom: i like that phrase. i think that is very accurate. nasdaq 1.54% of the negative as well. you wonder where it will settle. jon, 1.5 4% is unimaginable months ago. the bulls are sort of like, whatever. jonathan: i think price sets narrative. last monday, what were we talking about? we are staring down the barrel of $76 crude. tom: for all you that are not part of global wall street, this has been hugely anticipated, what will happen with global research at jp morgan. jonathan: not a surprise to most people, tom. tom: there it is, the ever-changing tone. making substantial further progress in washington is annmarie hordern. she joins us right now. it is tuesday. i guess thursday matters. maybe friday matters more. what is speaker pelosi's most important meeting this tuesday? annmarie: it's going to be meeting with the pr

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17 on the s&p, up 0.4%. we are on course for six straight quarters of gains. tom:

tom keene meditating. tom: i've been listening to ed shearon. jonathan: what did you call it, warmed up coldplay? lisa: oh boy. jonathan: in the fx market, the euro showing a little bit of wood. euro-dollar -0.3%, $1.1775. lisa: i've been particularly interested in what is going on in the crude market. we have this dissonance between stockpiles going up in the united states, while we have lower demand evidence result -- lower demand as a result of the delta variant. we are bidding the opec monthly report released anytime now. how do they view the drawdowns and inventories in the united states, that are now the lowest since 2019? it is the first day of public school in new york. i'm watching how we people actually return and what it is like. just 65% of new york city 12 to 17-year-olds have been vaccinated. the first hedge fund conference to be held in new york city versus where it is normally held, and las vegas. the discussion will be going forward, what is the future of hedge funds that now have more than $4 trillion of assets under management

john: tom keene and lisa as well as myself. the market is up .7%. it is a long week. tom: yes. it is a five day week this week. can we do more geology? we need more canary islands. john: from new york, this is bloomberg. >> congressional democrats are at an impasse. they are attempting to deal with three crucial issues. they are trying to prevent that default and push bidens 4.3 trillion dollar deal. they want to raise the debt ceiling. meanwhile, democrats, progressives and moderates, cannot agree on the package. the latest rocket launch involved a hypersonic missile. that will help kim jong-un put nuclear warheads and the high seas. united states is on the defensive. there are 125 mile ranges which are difficult for experts to verify. at the canary islands, the volcano has erected nine days ago and is flowing into the ocean. it will be seen drifting into the air. it was 1800 degrees fahrenheit. there is a risk of toxic gas. in china, the government is promising to let house prices change. there is a supply crunch, and the government has been considering raising prices on indu

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a thursday, feels like a friday. huge idiosyncratic news flow, but it all centers on the central banker of the world, jerome powell. moved markets yesterday. the chairman moves markets this morning. jonathan: this equity market is taking it well. i think it was more than just a baby step towards tapering. he was queuing up what to expect in 2022 as well. i was surprised by that. tom: the real yield nicely under -1%, -0.59%. there are some dynamics there, but particularly in the spread market. jonathan: the spread between fives and 30's has narrowed. we are south of 100 basis points there. the focus not just on the federal reserve. it is on china and a company called evergreen. there's an interest payment due today on a dollar bond, $83.5 billion worth, and we haven't dealt with that yet. tom: what will we see from the chinese tomorrow morning? they are linked. lisa: the idea that it is less of a market specific story and a potential contagion from th

tom keene mostly back in a couple of days. it is a snooze on the equity market, unchanged on the s&p and similar on the nasdaq. i know tom is watching. in the bond market, that is with the headlines are, yields higher again and this curve is steeper. the sicko and perhaps because the fed said it is going to begin tapering sooner, and other people are saying it has to do with the chain issues and others saying maybe it's higher wages. the answer really will determine the path of the rest of the economy and friendly markets because these outcomes are not the same. jonathan: what he think that may be the window is closing for the fed? lisa: the question is tapering or tightening. tapering they were going -- they are going to do, a lot of people say it will not make a big difference whether it is january or february. if it is to the point where we see a turn in the economic cycle, what will be the incentive to raise rates? they got to taper fully before they can raise rates according to their own communications. jonathan: your tak

good morning tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. your market up 22 on the s&p 500, advancing .5%. we pair the gains to this morning. let's get to the intraday picture. futures coming in just a little bit. we take a little dip, positive 24 but off of session highs off of the back of this story from the wall street journal. "china making preparations forever -- for evergrande 's demise." there looking to bail out the property developer asking local officials to prepare for a possible storm. this can a share the lead paragraph with our audience. chinese authorities ask local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of the evergrande group according to officials familiar with the discussion, signaling a reluctance to bail out the debt settled property developer while bracing for any economic social fallout from the company. that is the lead paragraph the mobile -- paragraph are from the wall street journal. two interest payments due on two bonds, one local currency, one dollar bond. we kind of dealt with the local currency issu

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this week is getting interesting. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. "bloomberg surveillance this is, -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." this is your bounce back, up by 0.9% of the back of yesterday's slide. this week is far from over. tom: big recovery at the very end yesterday. as you mentioned in the last hour, the correlations here are really absolutely critical. the idea of what bonds will do, what curves will do, and particularly watching the real yield, now under -1.00%, a negative lesser statistic. it will be interesting to see how that performs in a better stockmarket. tom: i'm looking -- jonathan: i am looking forward to hearing you frame the debate in greenwich, connecticut. tom: the lineup here is very good. i've got the governor of connecticut, front and center on tax policy. but what i am really interested in is the interdependency given the credit markets we are in. then ray dalio, catherine burton has done phenomenal reporting of

tom keene taking a long weekend. futures

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. i wonder if mr. solomon at goldman sachs, the idea of the politics behind the move. it is just a cfo change at goldman sachs. lisa: goldman sachs named dennis coleman as the new financial officer as of yet -- as of next year. as you said really well, basically banks are rethinking the way they look in the years to come. the pandemic was a tipping point for a technological shift and trying to bring up some of the younger banks in a way it had not been in the past. tom: mr. coleman very much associated with united kingdom as well. also associated with us is barry ritholtz, bloomberg opinion columnist. thank you so much for joining us. housing. we needed a dishwasher. the sump pump had been used in hurricane ida. i love homeownership. is it worth it? barry: you have to live somewhere and as someone who has lived in rentals and my own house, it is nice not to live in an off-white no change to any of the living circumstances. the old joke is no one watches a rented car. nobody improves a rented apartment.

jonathan: tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramovitz. yield keep on climbing come up for basis points to 152. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: senate republicans have blocked a bill that would suspend the debt ceiling and would have kept the government operating past the end of the fiscal year later this week. that increases the pressure on democrats to find a way to raise the debt ceiling. they may have to use a budget procedure that could take nearly two weeks. treasury secretary janet yellen refused to return calls from the head of the imf. withholding support is beyond its public statement. -- accused of properly intervening in a report in her prior job. a new number one in the ratings, -- at the top of the survey. norway fell when it had the worst outbreak in the world period delta variant has left the u.s. reeling to number 28. ford making the biggest investment in its history. the automator will spend $11.4 billion to build factories in tennessee and kentucky. the project will create sites to produce electric f-150 pi

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 27, bouncing back 0.6%. it week for economic data

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down six after yesterday's rally. we are down a little more than 0.1% on the s&p 500. it is about claims. it is about retail sales. tom: of course, all of this to the fed meeting and what it means for the stock market. if you are getting out of your car on bloomberg radio, stay in your car. if you are in the living room and going into the kitchen to get a glass of tang, don't, because anna han is coming up with the sharpest note wrapped around that economic data. it is the way they get there. they have the acuity that is really unique. jonathan: lisa, one of the big bulls on the street right now going into year end. lisa: everybody is sort of expecting maybe a little softness, and even the people who had previously been a little more bearish are getting more bullish. even the bears are buller bears then they were before. the narrative is not changing for people depending on the data. it is really just what your view is going forward. jonathan: tom is having a great time, lisa.

tom keene needed extra were asked -- extra rest. he will be off today and tomorrow. on the s&p, we are unchanged. the big question as we kick off this morning, have we already had an early downgrade to september? lisa: because we are going to get the delta variant slowing the return to work, how much does that prolong the shift of people back into jobs and the jobs data tomorrow will be interesting to that point. jonathan: goldman sachs out yesterday with a downgrade for this year. your read on that this morning? lisa: it follows what morgan stanley did. the slowdown has been more significant than people have thought in the month of august, and yet they are not seeing sufficient rebound in the fourth quarter to make up for that. i think it is serious. academy securities came out with a note showing that if people remain out of these jobs long enough, what is to stop them from getting automated? for those positions to disappear? that seems to be a concern. jonathan: a good point. this is meant to be the road to september 22. it feels like we are deemphasizing the fede

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro this monday morning. your price action slightly negative, off by 0.25%. it is worse on the nasdaq. the nasdaq 100 negative i 0.75 percent. yields are breaking out again, higher by three or four basis points. off the highs of the session, still close to 1.49%. euro-dollar might get your attention, a break of $1.17, down 0.2%. we are trying to put together some kind of coalition in germany following inconclusive elections over the weekend. in the commodity market once again, we add some weight to the crude price. five weeks of gains, and we had some. we are back through $75. tom: a move to $80 on brent crude. not there yet, but up to new highs moments ago as well. right now, joining us on the political moment and what it means for economics, finance, and investment, greg valliere joins us. always astute on the moment at hand. i am dumbfounded by democrats taking a victory now like it was 1964, 1965, with lbj. how much of a majority does a president have to ram through his set of legislative? -- of legislati

alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro together with kailey leinz. s&p futures up 26. yields higher by about a basis point. as can he and i have talked about this morning, where you were on the last friday of august when you heard from chairman powell at that jackson hole meeting, we have not moved since then. tom: i use as a proxy to fix. rounded up to 23. getting over 20 is a big deal, but we are nowhere near 20 five fourth 30. jonathan: looking forward to talking about airlines this morning after the decision to reopen travel you wonder if we can get -- if we can actually refuel. tom: the guidance on airlines is a movable feast. where also plugged -- all plugged into google flights trying to figure it out. it really plays up the idea of how quickly they will come back. there is a real optimism that planes will be loaded. jonathan: guy johnson is going to have an important interview with airbus. i would love to see how much more loaded planes are given the books we've seen. tom: greg vale yet nailed this this morning. annmarie hordern is going to give us perspective.

the fed decides with tom keene, jonathan ferro and kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today.

good morning alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. six days out of seven down on the s&p. equity futures are up a little bit, advancing by almost 1/10 of 1%. cpi gets your attention will yields lower. the euro is stronger. crude 71.50. a lift there and i think it's still the call of the week to hear from bank of america on this. talk about the risk, the potential that could come six months sooner if we get a cold winter in the united states. tom: i think it's important. 30 people guessing on whatever the topic is, there is a tendency and when people who are typically in a center tendency moved to an outlier, that gets our attention. jonathan: everyone is woolwich. the next year, q2, the south. is pretty bullish tom: what is the terminal function? jonathan: dpsc. when you look at the south side, they are pretty bullish. when you look at the median forecast, they are still below where we are now so we haven't seen the capitulation on that call. out of china, two point 5% retail sales in china, a huge downside to price and we were lookin

. >> bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance alongside lisa abramowitz. the equity market is down 23. live on tv and radio, putting itself together as the week progresses. lisa: it's the idea we are getting some inflection. why is there suddenly conviction reflation. jonathan: yields were lower wednesday and aggressively higher on thursday. kailey: we were talking about how any back of central banks would be bad for risk assets. jonathan: the good news is the chairman of the federal reserve held everyone's hand and guided them toward the decision and they recognized what will happen in november. lisa: which they said they were ready to do. he gave the market plenty of notice and going into that fed decision, everyone expected the fed was going to do exactly what it did. jonathan: just a note on this, the chinese saying it's illegal to trade crypto so is this a broader part of the crypto story? lisa: this all goes to this question of how they conta

from new york city, on radio, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. the deutsche bank center it is. no one will know where you made. tom: it looks good on radio. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. congressional democrats are at an impasse. they have hit a wall in an attempt to do with three crucial issues at once. avert a government shutdown, prevent a debt default come and move forward on president biden's for trillion dollar agenda. republicans are blocking an attempt to raise the debt ceiling -- north korea said its latest rocket launch was a successful test of a hypersonic missile. that suggests kim jong-un's regime has come closer at putting nuclear warheads and high-speed gliders that can evade u.s. missile defenses. it was difficult for experts to verify the claim. france has warned the u.k. is in violation of the brexit deal. france says britain denied several small european sheen boat access to its territorial what it's -- small european fishing boats. france attempted to prevent u.k. financial do

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an interesting day. lagarde in this hour with her comments on paper, non-taper -- on taper, non-taper, and the rest of it. what matters to me is we heard in the opening there, the guests are the quality of what we do at "bloomberg surveillance." ben laidler outlines the fundamentals of the market, and savita subramanian is focused on the bond market. jonathan: it's an upgrade from 3800, but nowhere near some of the price targets out there. into next year, we've heard calls of 5k. so vita -- savita looking for 4600. look at the labor market. i can give you some data that shows you this labor market is tight. i can give you some data that shows this labor market is loose. that debate is going nowhere anytime soon. tom: the distinction on ecb is simple. u.s., maximum stimulus. ecb, far less stimulus. jonathan: capital economics, their line came out a couple of minutes ago that sums up things perfectly. the ecb slows purchases, but will keep policy ultra-loose

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a week. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your market advancing 0.5%. we are taking a couple of things very well, the federal reserve and the story out of china. tom: you've got the moonshot of the norwegian thing, the bank of england moments ago. turkey with a bombshell, and the lira weakening dramatically. all of these distractions around the central banker to the world, and what he said yesterday is we've got to plan, and markets said no. jonathan: and we just got a surprise rate cut, 100 basis points over in turkey. this chairman has no interest whatsoever in taking anyone by surprise. tom: exactly. jonathan: that was handholding through to tapering in november. tom: you should tune in on our breaks. it is really interesting. on radio and tv, jon mentioned brazil which is really important. there's only one book that matter

jonathan: jonathan ferro, katie, tom keene tomorrow. not doing much at all today. unchanged on the s&p, unchanged on the nasdaq. bond market yields lower by a couple basis points. morgan stanley talking up policy. we can talk about monetary policy all day. let's talk about fiscal policy now down in dacey. jack, the battle over the taxes, what does it look like right now down in washington? >> it is looking pretty tough. obviously, you heard senator manchin's comments recently about being skeptical about the $3.5 trillion top line. yesterday we got a sign of how difficult it can be to add up these numbers for democrats. the ways and means committee put out basically the spending half of their part of this bill that is the expansion of medicare, 12 weeks universal paid leave. they actually are bumping back the beginning of some of those benefits because if congress measures the cost in a windows, it would artificially minimize the cost that they would have to balance out the tax increases. they wouldn't even start benefits for the extension of medicare until 2028. th

tom keene is a way for a couple of days. i'm going to enjoy this. the s&p 500 totally unchanged, and the nasdaq is unchanged. in around and move higher by almost a 10th of 1% but the equity market, we have talked about the story, we are downgrading the month of september, the importance of this month, just met to be the month that supply constraints are starting to heal. are they going to? we are talking about 2022 and maybe 2023, so inflation could persist come and growth starts to decelerate, something we need to get our heads around. what does it mean for the bond rockets? yields are higher friday, and yachts -- yields are high this morning also. what does this equal? it equals a steeper curve. we topped out at 157 on march 31 and now 115, 63 on tens, and that gap starting to spread a little wider. what does that mean for the market? >> it will be interesting to see how this shapes out. as for what is moving this morning, your biggest mover at least in terms of the large caps , that is match group come up about 13%, about 12% in the free market.

tom keene playing politics again. tom: there was a debt ceiling, but i will go back. i grew up in a house where there was complete panic every time the debt ceiling got up. i am more interested in the dynamics of 3.5 trillion down and what it means for tax increases, real and perceived by voters. my working number, you ready? none hundred billion. jonathan: what gets you there? tom: history. i read every word of a report. i cannot cite it here. the indiana redistricting and the re-peopling of the hard left of west lafayette and the two-minute drill is redistricting. lisa: if you are on radio, you are missing jonathan ferro's face as he is processing this. jonathan: usually when he brings up indiana, it is because he is in trouble with our manager. tom: it is the new madison, wisconsin. a liberal oasis in the midwest. jonathan: can we get back to this market? what does it mean? i have no idea. this is bloomberg. jonathan: what a mess he started for the trading week. this is bloomberg surveillance. here is the action. spilling over to europe. down by 1.46%. we are down

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17 on the s&p, up 0.4%. we are on course for six straight quarters of gains. tom: it's been choppy. what i would note, even with the equity recovery of the last number of days, the vix still near a 22 level. there is still that choppy tension as we go towards the new quarter. jonathan: euro-dollar, a break of $1.16. the weakest euro we have seen going back to july 2020. strongest dollar we have seen all year. what underpins that move? tom: i'm going to suggest i don't know. finally, what is underlining this quarter is how quiet this has been. jonathan: how well anchored is this move? how durable will it be? lisa: i'm going to provide a potential narrative at my absolute peril. i think it is fascinating to see you move up the stronger dollar, higher yields in the 10 year, and weaker equity performance . how much is this a quantitative easing unwind trade? this to me as one of the questions as we watch real yields rise to the highest since june. jonathan: equities

tom keene, forgive me, i am about to use the most overused line, a change in tone. can we call that a shift in tone? tom: a shift in tone is based on the great divide of vaccinated in the unvaccinated. jonathan: it is a change of substance. equity market up 20 on the s&p. tom: is the market up because of biden's speech? jonathan: how are we changing course is what we have to consider. what did the airlines do, the airlines rallied. we talked about this a lot on this program and we do it on radio. it is not just the headlines but how the market responds to it here the airlines looked tidy on the back of that. tom: joining us is mario parker, head of our coverage in washington. i look at where we are and the math is simple. a gallup poll has 18% over their dead body are they going to get vaccinated. you get out to 24% are basically against biden. 24% are unvaccinated. is the nation behind the president? mario: you are right. you mentioned the president's tone shifting her he was using a caret to incentivize americans to get vaccinated and that has turned into a stick.

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. it is a fed day on radio and radio. kailey leinz is in for lisa abramowicz. we said good morning to all. this is about what will be set at the press conference, or will it be about what will be left? jonathan: we won't hear anything on china, i think it's too early to drop illusions. we won't hear much on the history of the future. we will hear questions on what has been happening with the federal reserve and fed precedents -- presidents, and investment decisions. as you pointed out, it will be difficult for this chairman to say anything substantial today before we get through the process of working out what's gone wrong. tom: not only in policy investment, but on our fiscal policy. what is so different from the last fed meeting is that we have dovetailed into a president with plunging poll ratings and a president with a true fiscal mess on his hand. jonathan: do we get 2.5 trillion? tom: we have to be below that. jonathan: it's hard to come up with a forecast, the

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. tom: an extraordinary monday. we need to dive into the data check. forget about the theory of contagion, the 30 year bond plunges sharply down to 1.8431. jonathan: futures coming at -32. you have to start the morning off with china. tom: it is a contagion from ever grant and shenzhen. we talked about watching beijing. jonathan: interest you on bank loans, interest on dollar bonds due thursday. so far until today, it was incredibly concise property developers out of china. see that in the hong kong session today. does that start to spread? what does the contagion look like? tom: the real yield at negative 1.3%. lisa, idiosyncratic does not work this morning, does it? lisa: how much will this have a real economic effect? the idea that this goes beyond a financial pickup that people can overwhelm with cash. the fact that you are seeing the flattening yield curve in the u.s., there seems to be a bleed over into slower growth and inflation for the path ahead. what does that mean for the fe

jonathan: the associate professor of johns hopkins, good morning alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. zero .1% on the snp. bond market yields are in almost one basis point. euro-dollar is positive. we will get jobless claims within the hour. it's payrolls friday. tom: some real interesting nuances on wages and the unemployment rate of fully employed america. on the pandemic, johns hopkins, we spent a large amount of time yesterday on the booster shots. let's move on to the battle of the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated. where will that battle be in 30 days? >> i think you are increasingly seeing employers require vaccinations for their use. i think that will have a huge impact in terms of uptick. i can understand why employers are doing that because they want to get back to work and make sure they are safe and as the pandemic drags out, it's clear that vaccinations are the only way to do that stuff i hope in my heart that people can see the inherent value and benefits of these vaccines and they don't need to be coerced in order to get them. the fact of the matter is, this is what w

i'm jonathan ferro alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. tom, the rally continues. tom: i think when you left it was a number of difficult days. a little bit of sweat out there. the characterization of the last number of days, for whatever the news flow is has been john, the bids there and the bid sustains. we saw it yesterday and with a vengeance we see it this morning. jonathan: we will get the view of the status on buying in a moment. tom: i will go with that but i see a vix that is normalizing. it was like headlining 18, 19, up to 23, lower numbers in a better market with a 15 handle 16.15 and is this market prepared for a vix of 14? i don't think so. jonathan: week leap -- we keep climbing a wall of worry. tom: they are seeing people going up and hedging so the people looking for further gains to justify with -- why this is not frothy, at a certain point you wonder if it is just market reasoning. jonathan: is the fed obsession a worthy conversation in this market? even with withdrawal, we know that the fed can start hiking the equity market and it goes up. you

lisa abramowicz and tom keene on a historic day for new york city. we will not waste time with the statistics, but to be very serious, eight deaths reported by the new york times. historic rain. with that note we get to the chief executive officer of the mta. where is your biggest headache at this time? >> the subway system is coming back. it is extremely resilient. we have operating service in most areas of the city. we are putting humpty dumpty back together. bravo to the crews that worked throughout the night to do it. there is a key area where the pumping is still going on for us to restore service to that important line. we think by midafternoon we will have most of the lines back to full functioning for an evening commute. that is exciting. tom: you're telling me we will see an evening commute? janno: a lot of people elected to work remotely or stay at home today, so a little lighter than usual. we will move people on the subways and on the bus system, which performed heroically. great bus drivers rescued people. p meter railroads are little sp

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. end of the quarter. on radio, on television, a one-hour briefing here on the step forward for q4. we've got a set of guests to give us the clarity on what i don't know of the next 90 days. jonathan: looking forward to catching up with geoff yu from bny mellon. with this fx market putting up some big numbers now, euro-dollar a breakdown for the dollar. -- a breakout for the dollar. tom: it is a litmus paper for the global system. we can look at this pair, that pair. we will do that any moment. but how does that you over -- how does that move over to a stock market that has cratered? it is an annual yield over 90 days of 7.4%. i thought that is what we were supposed to do. jonathan: it is the sixth straight quarterly gain on the s&p. we are doing ok. but let's be clear, q4 could really be choppy. we got some issues to resolve, washington being one of them. the federal reserve another. we got to get through earnings season. tom: one of the best things about t