kailey leinz alongside lisa abramowicz, futures up about a third of 1%. it is all about the fed this week. lisa: do they go 50 basis points. do they signal a forward look. how far they willing to go and what are they looking at in terms of inflation projections. jonathan: how data-dependent is this for the next several months. do you think anything comes through in the next couple of months makes it different to the trajectory of fed hikes? lisa: i don't know if that comes from the payrolls report, perhaps in the inflation side. when it comes to supply chain disruption, when it comes to china and perhaps higher oil and gas prices should there be some sort of embargo on russian energy products, could that shift the narrative more than the tightening labor market. >> last month was brutal. >> the worst want to be seen for equities going back. for the nasdaq, the worst month since 2008 and that was even in the face of earnings that by and large have been ok. you the vast majority of companies beating to the upside. you're seeing 3% earnings growth and get th

jon ferro, lisa abramowicz and dom -- tom keene. they two in davos. interesting meetings more different than anything i've seen in 18 or 19 years in may. i was speaking to w ef officials today and they don't want to say yes formally we are on for january. lisa: there's a difference between very nice weather that people don't want to miss and the fact that people are enjoying the fact that it's not snowing and icy to the fact that in january people are getting the agenda done. people are coming together amid a sea of uncertainty for off the record conversations about how things really are because they cannot say it in public. tom: markets stable up and down fractionally. can you imagine what these meetings would be like if what we have seen the last few weeks had continued? lisa: a lot of people look at this as a short-term reprieve. that's what we were hearing from tony dwyer we have baked in a lot of fed tightening. suddenly people are reassessing to figure out where we go from here. tom: there is some adjustment here. lisa: christine lagarde has ass

for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up .8%. there is a bounce. will it stick? tom: with a little bit of hope and prayers. maybe it is a shift on the fed guessing game, but as lisa mentioned, earnings are better than good and strategists readjust. jonathan: we look forward to cpi tomorrow. that is the major one for this market. tom: i agree. it is going to be interesting to see. i know you already know the numbers. i'm still not used to an eight-figure. jonathan: we are looking for another one tomorrow. wall street will look for one thing, and the newspapers will go with something else. lisa, the front pages -- and i would argue this administration too -- will look for deceleration. wall street will be looking month on month. tom: they -- lisa: they are also going to be looking at the components. what is driving ongoing inflation? i'm wondering how much of the new search is due to supply chain disruptions. whether that changes the story for a federal reserve which is trying to fight demand-side inflation. cannot

, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i am jonathan ferro. futures are down .2%. we have to start with the carnage of the last 24 hours. tom: this is an incredibly important report. mike mckee will join us in the early california morning. it is extraordinary. i'm going to say this is clear as i can. the difference is a previous pandemic correction that was had, they were short and sharp. it has taken a long time for the peaks to get to a 10% correction, a drought down -- a drawdown. it is lengthen and prolonged. jonathan: we have to pick over the destruction. 49% of the nasdaq, and 52 week highs. the index is already in a bear market. tom: this is the case. a distribution that you see among any given index. i take your point here. the 500 is more ticket if -- indicative than the dow jones. what happened yesterday? was it governor bailey or something else? to me, it was the x access of inflation guest forward. it shifted, and equities took it on the chain. jonathan: what happened on wednesday? let's talk about that. lisa:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is cpi wednesday. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures up 1%. the big one at 8:30. tom: the last time we were at this inflation level olivia newton john and "let's get physical, physical." we will find if we actually get physical on lower inflation. jonathan: if only you could see bramo's face right now. what are we hoping for? hopefully peak inflation is behind us. core hopefully coming in, that is not the expectation. tom: we are down to the micro rollover of inflation. looking month over month. must watch, must listen for global wall street, culminated by william dudley later in the show. jonathan: bill dudley coming up. his view on how high do rates need to go on the federal reserve, probably higher. lisa: if that is the view how do we explain the rally we are seeing in treasuries, in equities? there are number of different expectations inflation will not come in as hot and i do not know if i buy that. i do not know if this is any sort o

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is "berg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, on the nasdaq we are down 1%. we are off session lows. tom: it continues on air and it is a massive recalibration across what we do economics, finance, and investment. the chitchat as we had with claudia sahm will start with economics. what does any central bank do given the cards dealt? jonathan: chairman powell says keep on hiking and i imagine there's a relationship with the market. which a bank is saying we are at the recession crossroads for this -- deutsche bank is saying we are at the recession crossroads for this economy. tom: i sound like a broken record, if that is the thing that spins around and you put a needle on it. the bond market is leaning away, real carnage, and i'm sorry, the central banks in some way face -- save -- face-saving form. what is important here as they are going to adjust and adapt. jonathan: that's what you think but in this market the

from london, lisa abramowicz and tom keene, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date from news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. a boris johnson pulled no punches when bloomberg asked about the prospect of negotiating with vladimir putin, the british prime minister responding how can you deal with a crocodile when in the middle -- when it is in the middle of eating your left leg. he says the russian president is do not be trusted. profits the chinese industrial firms decline last month. profits fell 8.5% on april from a year ago. covid outbreaks and lockdowns disrupted factory production, and transport logistics. for american workers saying companies are becoming more cautious after handing out hefty salary increases over the last year. economists expect data to show annual wage growth this month as 5.2% down from 5.5% in april. the fed sees wage growth as a because of inflation. governor greg abbott has reportedly dropped plans to address the national rifle association's meeting today. the nra is meeting in houston days after the

along with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i am jonathan ferro. tom: a historic day. we are going to provide some leadership here. it is that overlay across all of the american economy. when the new is down and lift -- lisa: coming coming at 240 to 270. the higher in as far as the estimate. how much are they trying to distinguish themselves and say that lives disappointment with a live story, uber is a separate case. jonathan: there is an issue in the labor market for the likes of lyft. they are not alone. all these job openings in america, millions and people struggling to fill those vacancies. if you want to fill them, you have to pull wages up. tom: it is almost an advantage to have this lyft, uber -- because a distinction we hear from market economists is simple, the job economy is the heart of the matter, it is on fire. jonathan: later this year, do we solve it? lisa: what are we supposed to be solving at this point. how do we have job openings still hiring? companies do not plan a hiring but you are seeing all -- going up. i wonder what the fed is going to do wi

surveillance with john keenan, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: we are all moving forward to the presumable economic shutdown. jonathan: what are the odds to that question? tom: what i am looking at is the data. front and center for me today is diesel. from the last meeting to this meeting is surging. that number was just published moments ago. diesel is 16% of america's energy consumption. it matters. jonathan: a lot has changed in the price of fuel, a lot has changed in this market. the s&p and the nasdaq, for that matters well. lisa: there has been a lot of adjustments ahead of this fed reason -- this fed meeting was raise a lot of questions for me. for june, are they going to raise rates 570 percent there? why don't they do something bold in this meeting? are they going to signal something in the balance sheets sooner than june? everybody is talking about dependency. john, you have pointed out again and again what data are they looking at because it is coming in hot. jonathan: how he answers that question in the news conference today will

tom: jon ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene from davos. jon is on assignment, lisa and i are here in a changed davos. the shock of may instead of january and other ideas. you know how there is a token driver. i am the token rest are. i went to bed. you are up partying all night. lisa: the davos mood is a lot more quiet sent. this is my first year here. everyone talks about the weather being former and fewer people are here. there is also a more serious tone. not only with the backdrop of ukraine, but also markets. yesterday we saw a pop. today we are giving it up. people are concerned what they're not seeing around corners with the china slow down. tom: the way we are in this bear market -- jamie dimon salvaged the market yesterday. i think that is true. we need somebody else to come out and get growthy on us. lisa: the fact that one company or one co can move the market so much -- today people will blame snap -- they came out with a letter saying the backdrop is deteriorating faster than expected. the fact that things are moving so quickl

lisa: is that the effort of wind? we have a windstorm from tom keene. lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro on assignment. this fog really sets the moment for the mom -- early sets the mood for the moment we are in. tom: it really works this year. there's a some furnace. i will -- there's a somberness. charles schwab wrote a note this year that i have never seen in 51 years. there was a somber tone of this war in ukraine. lisa: not only that, but the supply-chain disruptions and how you re-create the spirit of globalization that is being rejected by so many different populations. i've got to say, the backdrop of markets yesterday, quiescent. but today a little less so. there's another downward tilt, and it comes after snap, and i know you wonder what kind of company it is, a lot of people call it social media, but abercrombie and fitch also coming out with some potentially negative headwinds, basically talking about some of the supply chain disruptions that have been greater than expected. tom: i had a conversation yesterday, and i don't think it has been played enough here.

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jon ferro is on assignment. do we see him on monday? lisa: tuesday. we are off on monday, we just went over that. it is a holiday. tom: we will have jon ferro with us on tuesday. that is a beautiful thing. we will talk about the equity market. if you are in any form of equity investments, what we will do is, right now in new york, a look at the markets with kailey leinz. kailey: futures have been fluctuating between losses. nasdaq futures are lagging behind due to a few individual names appeared in the bond market, 10 year yield, to basis points lower. the russian ruble catches my eye after the russian central bank cut rates for the third time in just over a month from 13% to 11%. trying to rein in the strength of the ruble that has gone from strength to strength during the course of the war in ukraine. the ruble right around 62.74. as far a few of the individuals i was talking about creating a drag on the broader market, apple is one. down 1.4%. they will keep production flat this year for iphones, they are dealing with supply-side challenges. a chip

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. thrilled you are with us from the world a comic forum meetings -- the world economic forum meetings in a very different davos, switzerland. a great set of guests coming up. we will tell you about that. but we need to set the stage in may of what always occurs in january. i'm stunned how jarring it is. i did not expect it to be so odd this year. lisa: not only is it not snowing at it is not freezing, but definitely the meetings. tom: somber. lisa: and i think that is appropriate. we are coming off the worst rout , the longest stretch of declines on the nasdaq and the s&p going back to 2001, and the dow going back to 1973, although no one looks at it, if jon were here. tom: jonathan on assignment, capri, where there's no wind. we're going to put up with the wind and also look at the winds of change in this economy. the front page of the world a comic forum, by far the most serious, somewhere i have ever seen. lisa: how can they project optimism when we are facing a downturn? the head of

lisa abramowicz, it was a dissent not seen yesterday at the fed. lisa: this is been a very difficult path for the bank of england and they have a very different trajectory than at the federal reserve because they cannot count on saying there will be growth next year, seeing actually a contraction, even amid hiking rates. tom: is appropriate to end this hour with marc chandler. his book "political economy of tomorrow" looks at the astrology of the foreign-exchange system. he is chief market strategist at bannockburn. i want to go back to 1992. i believe john major and the modern collapse of the british financial system, yes, there were a few other moments along the way. compare and contrast what is coming for governor bailey and what john major dealt with in 1992 with the sterling collapse. marc: in 1992 the u.k. was part of the exchange rate that limited how much the sterling could move. now the u.k. has been limited by that band and sterling has collapsed. yesterday chairman powell talk about channing -- channeling paul volcker but i think it is g

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. he's back, tk, alongside lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. the fed's today meeting begin. tom:tom: huge close yesterday. what a moonshot up. i don't know if it sets us up for tomorrow, but i guess preordained to a half a point rate increase, which in itself is history making, and the markets adapt and adjust. where will be friday? where will we be in the jobs report coming up? jonathan: let's look at the battle on the sale side between jp morgan and morgan stanley. they want, get clear this bear market is far from complete. jp morgan and the team saying we continue to find too much negativity in equity and credit markets. tom: it is a battle. i don't have a strong opinion either way. i'm looking at the correlations of the market. it is great that can rogoff will be with us today with -- that can rogoff -- that ken rogoff will be with us today. jonathan: bef

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures of the .8% after the pain of yesterday. tom: the pain of yesterday and 2022, as we mentioned, jon, you are looking for the hope and prayer of bloom to script bloom destruction. jonathan: hsbc not buying it. they are firmly risk-off. they think it is coming in the next three to six months. tom: i get a bunch of notes yesterday tearing the strategists apart. when the facts change, i change. that is what is going on right now. people are readjusting. i would suggest the first step is to wait for the catharsis, and a lot of people saying we really have not seen the agony yet. jonathan: i have been surprised by how few on the south side have adjusted. lisa abramowicz putting out the note, we stay pro-risk and underweight in bonds and cash. have been wrong over the last 12 months. lisa: can you be surprised? he is sort of a separate category of wall street will end going to come out and reaffirm what angle you are going to take? the story is becoming nuanced, and i think goldman sac

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. from the world economic forum in davos, a very different davos this year in may, not in january. i have been stunned at the changes. i did not expect the difference in energy, the ballet of beautiful may morning. lisa: it's very different from tripping over the ice and dealing with snow and freezing. it's a very different moment in wall street. on the heels of the pandemic, a quieter davos one that is also more serious and focused. tom: you brought it up earlier. it's not a davos of catharsis out there or emotion. it's the slog in interest rates and the worries about recession. lisa: and a changed geopolitical landscape to highlight the fact that russia is not here and all that entails. what does it mean to be globalized in a world where people are trying to find how to get things quickly and reliably despite some of the disruptions? tom: -- was walking by the and he was deglobalized. we will take a quick look at markets. lisa: christine lagarde came out in a note and basically was sa

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. futures down more than .1% on the s&p. it is all about the squeeze on this consumer. kailey: the squeeze on consumer. 9% in the united kingdom. it is a squeeze across all. you cannot parse out energy. it is about core cpi and let's call it a double of what we have seen pre-covid. jonathan: one of the most important notes on wall street came from j.p. morgan. cruel summer: white u.s. gasoline prices could break above six dollars later this year. that is a bit -- that is a big deal. kailey: just got invited to the morgan call in london on oil. they walk through the why we are going to $150 a barrel. the answer is jp morgan and others see oil prices higher because of conventional analysis. jonathan: how much does this fed need to squeeze? lisa: and how much they willing to? jay powell said fight for for credibility. he came out saying we will not take a nuanced view of inflation. that is the bedr

lisa abramowicz and tom keene, and back to you. guy: an umbrella definitely require. i hope they packed those bloomberg umbrellas, because it sounds like they're going to be needed. as mr. moran handset, snow is definitely quieter than rain. let's talk about what he said on the consumer. it was my real take away from that conversation. it is a take away i've heard from bank ceo after bank ceo that have traveled to davos. the consumer is in great shape, and that is going to make the fed's job difficult. alix: they said nothing is going to slow the consumer right now. and saying that actually deposits are up. maybe people have not spent all of that stem -- stimmy money. is it just a shift really from the pandemic winners who have reopening trade, in essence? guy: it's interesting to see the slowdown and services, but it comes down to what we have been talking about the last few days. it started with walmart, it went into target. i think you are seeing it in snap as well. the topline is ok. i keep reiterating that. that speaks to the solid consumer. the consumer is spend

tom:tom: let's go narrow here, value add with lisa abramowicz. to your wheelhouse away from full faith and credit, what did mere mortals in the bomber could say? -- in the bond market say? lisa: they were starting to move away from riskier credit any more significant way based on the price action. kathy jones was spot on when she was talking about the fear right now amongst so many credit investors, which is that this next phase of rate hiking is going to lead to the growth scare's, is going to lead to more of a problem with credit which is often a canary for the rest of the risk complex. tom: the imagery of a busy day for all of us in economics, finance, investment. the international relations recovering. mr. draghi, mr. biden in some form of meetings here, and they have to focus on mr. putin. jonathan: i wonder who's got the harder job right now. would mario draghi rather be the ecb president? i think that ecb job is much harder now. much harder than it was when he was there. when he was there it was just one move. let's seize. let's let's ease

i'm jonathan ferro, together with the brilliant lisa abramowicz. "bloomberg surveillance this is -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." kailey: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, here's the first word. victor says hungry will never support extending sanctions to -- viktor orban says hungry will never support extending sanctions to russia. a russian billionaire reportedly in hiding after could sizing the war in ukraine. he told "the new york times" the day after his instagram post on the war, vladimir putin threatened to nationalize his bank. he ended up selling his 35% stake to another russian billionaire in what he called a fire sale. a warning from the imf, inflation may turn out to be even faster than global central bankers anticipate. the deputy managing director tells bloomberg the risk is rising that inflation excitations drift away from central-bank targets. he says the most important priority is to end the war in ukraine. coronavirus lockdowns and china are taking a significant toll on the country's economy. over the week

lisa abramowicz and tom keene with you on radio, on television. and now, to get out front of a sacred oath, mark esper. you know him as a secretary of defense of modest controversy for president trump. but far more, the most coveted award at west point. there is a statuette west point, and far more the heritage you have seen of one douglas macarthur. when you won the leadership award at west point, and honor of douglas macarthur, is a big deal. mark esper joins us. tell me about what general macarthur would do today with all of his controversy within the republican party the middle 20th century, isolationism and that. what would general macarthur do with his modern defense department that we have? william: it is a great question, and thank you for the introduction. macarthur, we would consider him today to be a combatant commander. but for west pointers and others in the military, we must recall his famous saying about duty, honor, and country. that is the west point motto. he said those three hallowed words dictate what you want to become a what

lisa abramowicz and tom keene, we thank you for being with us. yours of 36. creta group to with a chart to stagger to the weekend. ritika: we have to talk about president biden going to asia. one of the reasons he is doing that is to look into the issues and supply chains at the core of it or crux of it is the semiconductors and that brings me to my chart of the day where we look at the philadelphia semiconductor index, stocks index and we keep it simple. a two-year chart shows the powerful rally you've seen in chip stocks and goes higher, higher, higher, and a lot of it is driven -- driven by the chip shortage, the ability to pass on more costs to consumers and if you look year today, you see a pullback. some of this will be the macro risk off sentiment and the other part is how many companies will not be able to keep up with terms of capacity and are facing perhaps the fears of some of the demand. tom: shifts the heart of all of it as well. thank you so much. ben evans is a managing director of medley global advisors and person i had the most in the racket.

kailey leinz alongside lisa abramowicz, futures up about a third of 1%. it is all about the fed this week. lisa: do they go 50 basis points. do they signal a forward look.

jonathan: lisa abramowicz just told me she had an extra hour in bed. lisa: it did not work. i tried to hide under my covers. jonathan: it was a 20 basis point move on the s&p. absolutely brutal. lisa: the intraday moves were dramatic. this volatility is something people were not used to. people can attribute it to the fed but it is not the fed. this is the realization they are tied between a rock in a hard place. increasingly concerned about recession and tied to what is going on geopolitically, whether having to do with ukraine or china lockdown. jonathan: looking ahead to cpi on wednesday and hoping we see more deceleration. lisa: but does it matter if we just saw peak inflation? if we end the year at 4% inflation will we feel good? will the fed say we are done? i don't think so. jonathan: i am with lisa. the mechanical peak is not the story. how much longer does this persist, that is the secret sauce for the future. tom: what is the fed going to do? we just got over the last fed meeting. june 15. along the way we will have inflation. the inflation battle over the weekend

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: important conversations at a highly uncertain time. from the world a comic forum in davos, switzerland, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on radio, on television. we are here debating some of the top issues of the moment amid a pallor of incredible sadness, both with respect to what is going on in ukraine, and then in america with the shooting in a school that was one of the deadliest in american history. tom: we need to frame the bloomberg reporting now because these are fast-moving stories. the somber nest across america is equaled by what i think has been underreported. there is severe fighting in what i am going to call far and southeastern ukraine. it is beneath the headlines in america, but there is some real tension into crane right now. -- in ukraine right now. lisa: there's been a constant drumbeat of terror and incredible sadness to the new slope. how much that is affecting the conversation here is tremendous. people are

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> from new york city, good morning. live on tv and radio. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. on the s&p, we are down 1%. nasdaq down 1.7%. lisa: not a lot of conviction about anything. you can see by some of the haven bids. you have concern about the fed hiking. people still talking about momentum in the u.s. economy. jonathan: the growth concerns in the bond market front and center. lisa: very much so. this is a shift. we have seen bonds and stocks sell off. rate fears seem to have peaked. what comes next? what is the consequence of a tighter financial policy with inflationary pressures that crimp consumer spending? jonathan: euro-dollar with a 1.03 handle. >> tough spot for the euro bank to be in. in theory, that means you hike rates, you could get a stronger currency. those same pressures are causing growth scare on the continent. what is a central bank to do? what is an fx trader to do? do you want to buy the euro? jonathan: does the fed do? what has been taking place in

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: equities rallying hard this morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 1.8% on the s&p. retail sales just around the corner. tom: i look at s&p 500, and off that low, under 4000 on spx, we are nowhere near the midpoint. that is how depressed we have been. but we are working our way back, and you really wonder within a bear market, and of bear market, whichever it will be, is there something in the wind about china and the end of a lockdown? jonathan: looking ahead to the data as well stateside. we know how the consumer feels, dreadful. sentiment a decade low. what are they doing? we are going to find out at about 8:30 eastern. tom: retails will be a huge deal. it is not only the control group where they take out the variables that the pros do not look at, but i love that we have they nicole sy before we get to the econom

-- lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on course for a sixth straight week of losses. tom: there is a bid but i'm going to call it fragile. i focus on the vicks, still above 30, 30.66, a bounce. jonathan: have we see the worst and the capitulation? we have heard so many people trying to answer that. tom: they got me going yesterday coming back from tottenham arsenal. i can't said enough, you can measure catharsis, we are nowhere near there. i measure it above 35 on vicks into the 41-40 two level, we are miles away. jonathan: you are desperate to get that match review. tom: completely inappropriate. the musk and twitter news has pushed tottenham arsenal beside. i don't want to get into it now, but i think to see it was to believe it. jonathan: i'm happy we are on the same page, totally inappropriate. 15 or 16% in early trading. lisa: basically elon musk with one tweet wiping off billions of market value for this company that ended the day yesterday at 35, $6 billion in value. how much does he back away from this because of

joining us next on this program with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, in ritika gupta. there is a sign that beijing is strengthening its energy ties with moscow as europe turns towards banning exports. china wants to replenish stockpiles with cheap crude from russia. president biden will meet today with the leaders of finland and sweden to discuss the bid to join nato. president erdogan as opposed because of the two countries housing those they -- he says are terrorists. in london, police wrapped up their investigation -- more than 126 fines have been issued to downing street. iag has agreed to buy 747 max jets and concludes a widely watched commitment that was reached three years ago. the 50 planes have a price of about $60 billion that iga says it is negotiating. 7.8 billion dollar hedge fund melvin financial management, more than a month ago it was in a game shot -- gamestop short squeeze. it never recovered. a comeback showed promise but never -- global news 24 ho

jonathan ferro, tom keene lisa abramowicz. we are down another 8/10 of 1%. look out below. yields are coming up about five basis points. 3.0908. just to get you ready for the day ahead, the number comes out in about an hour and 12 minutes. next week, may 11, the estimate so far, very few estimates coming in, what our survey is slowly coming together here. the median is 8.1 percent revenue, down from 8.5%. then you have to work out what is happening at the corporate we are stripping out food and energy. i don't use this for a lot of your home, but that is what central bankers do. 6.1% down from 6.5. we are slowly coming together. tom: moving targets coming together, and it is staggering what the ecb will do off of the bank of england. this is a jobs day, an important job stay, the news lowest -- news flow is externally. we spoke to emily in washington about intelligence and the sinking i should say of a very large and important russian ship. and maria is in salzburg. the wonderful kimberly martin of barnard and the herring institute of her expertise, which is the 800 mile bo

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a week, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio alongside with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures posited by 1%. tom: a bear market and by the measurements and the draw down, we will get it up in a moment. you look at the events yesterday and into the weekend and it is just about reaffirming where are we and where are the central banks. a great lineup to give us perspective into the weekend. jonathan: we are on course for a six straight week of losses. a lot of notes on the south side asking one big question, have we seen capitulation? tom: i was watching the game and i think tottenham did well against arsenal and i missed a lot of the movement yesterday, but the fact is a bid today, but what is the confidence in the bid? i would suggest the changes is that the havens have clicked in a little bit. jonathan: we are super excited for the match review. we will stick to the markets right now. this market heading south. big move, one whisker within

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jon ferro in treatment for his next property. joining us right now with the clearest note of the morning is tom tzitzouris, head of fi research at strategas. i love the clarity of your note biden, powell, and yellen has a easy lifting down to a 5% inflation rate, but then. is that really going to be the topic today on the couches in the oval office? thomas: i think so. the biden administration has a real problem here. they've got to get inflation down to a more comfortable 3%, but the problem with that is giving it down to 5% is pretty easy. it is seasonality, base effects. tightening will get us down about 4%, but getting down to 3% is probably going to into the recession -- probably going to engineer a recession. tom: are the phd's at the eccles building looking at reaction functions of differential calculus of the how to go from 5% to 3% inflation? thomas: i think they are come up with the question is do they over tighten along the way. if you look at the past history, eventually something broke for they actually got to their

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is not getting better. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.4% on the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down 0.75%. lisa: so why is nobody buying the step? we heard that -- this dip? we heard that people were coming in. it feels like people are waiting for another shoe to drop. what is going to give them conviction one way or another? jonathan: psychology has shifted in a massive way. the buy the dip mentality has been retired alongside the fed put. equities were up off the back of the inflation report. it lasted about five minutes. i think that is representative of so many people. we're looking at the moves, we see the nasdaq down 27%. we have seen these big tech stocks down by monster amounts and they are still nervous. that is when the psychology starts to shift another way and we are really gripped by what is happening in the bond market. lisa: we have seen a bubble b

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. on radio and evolution -- and television, from the world economic forum in davos, switzerland, they've announced january meetings in the dead of winter. we will see it in seven months. lisa: despite all the people to cry and they will be slipping on the ice, that seems perhaps to be a better time. it is an eventful moment. we have a slew of corporate news amid this executive gathering as people meet with policymakers. it really paints a bifurcated picture for the u.s. economy and frankly, for the world tom: macy's doing -- for the world. tom: macy's doing really well. a lot of pros saying you can't guess a recession. lisa: frankly come of the data is not supporting it. perhaps a little bit more pessimistic when it comes to europe and other regions, but still we are seeing people spending, and that is what we saw was macy's. i think this is a really big deal. they came out and boosted their expectation for the year. and why? basically people are charging thi

lisa abramowicz and tom keene here. right now, someone with a greater breadth of scope and scale, business intelligent president at group. i don't want you to give me buy, hold, cell, but i want you to talk about the revenue hopes that mr. musk would have if he looks at twitter private as a three-year exercise to go public. what is the kind of revenue or the revenue strategy he would take? >> i don't really know. it all reminds me of the south park episode on the underpants gnomes. phase a is make profit, phase be, we don't know. we don't know how he is going to multiply the user base. there has always been some willful optimism is what i would use to describe it. tom: does twitter have scale with or without musk? you have always been great about having that immovable force called scale. does twitter that you perceive have scale? >> scale for a niche platform. this has been a critique of a lot of companies. they thought they could be facebook, they thought they could be something universal. they were never more than a n

tom: we will get back to winnie cisar, who is really quite good, as is lisa abramowicz come away from full faith and credit. quickly here, there seems to be a three-part bond market. do i have that right? lisa: yeah, but the scenario that the bank of england is something that is very scary to the ecb, but also here in the u.s., people are watching with a wary eye. what does stagflation mean in terms of all of the corporate debt that has been raised? what if the fed keeps hiking rates and you get we is in the economy? i think that is what is keeping a lot of people up at night and what you are seeing in some of the spreads starting to widen out, basically a gauge of how much credit risk is start to increase. i've got to say, this bank of england decision is absolutely amazing. jonathan: it is nuts. i think we've got to be careful with the line which because they are not forecasting a recession per se. the definition, two consecutive quarters of negative growth. they are essentially forecasting stagnation and a small contraction next year, but i think the bottom line here is this is eve

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: countdown to the latest read of the u.s. labor market in davos, switzerland. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on television come on radio. jon ferro is off. we are broadcasting live as people empty out. the gloom is lifting and we are about to get a read on the labor market that is presenting a real conundrum for people looking for gloom. tom: you are dead on. there's been a lot of crosscurrents here. all of it comes back to the labor market and the weekly data of claims is critical. lisa: i think it is what people are looking at a time when they are trying to figure out if people are exuding the labor market, whether it still has a tightness that it once did, and we are getting a series of possibly brighter forecasts from retailers like macy's where people are still spending. how do you cross tale that into all of the negativity here in davos and beyond? tom: could you talk? my throat is gone because of the fondue last night. it was just too much. lisa: what was it again

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: a moment of calm in markets. the world's elite joining us at the world economic forum, where we are broadcasting live in davos, switzerland. good morning to all of you back in new york, to london, to those of you in switzerland. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg television and radio. jon ferro on assignment in capri. we will perhaps be heading there next. i digress for a moment. we reassessed the landscape we are in after crisis after crisis. tom: we are reassessing the green behind us. it is gorgeous here in switzerland. that is not news, but really a first for the world economic forum. 51 years. with the pandemic and all, they are trying to get it going again from january 2020. what stuns me is how this is such a different davos, even from 2008 and the shock of 2009. lisa: it is not cold, for one. but besides that, there is a recapitulation of what it means to solve problems at a time when you have food prices that are spiraling. you have conflict in ukraine

when you get ready for the next set, you listen to lisa abramowicz talk about boys. it is painful because you come over here and you don't leave behind america. lisa: i have no idea what's going to come out of your mouth. we are talking about our children, not some boy crazy discussion. tom: the surveillance world wants to know if they will survive till you get home? lisa: they will but it speaks to the blurring of lines between work and home. tom: joining us now is nila richardson. the trends are international but the speaking of recession and brian moynihan of bank of america making it clear. what is the official call of your group? >> i think the fundamentals in the u.s. are still ready strong. whenever the fed starts raising interest rates, the specter of inflation goes from the back burner to the front burner. i also think 10 years of economic expansion has told our senses. -- has dolled ever senses. it doesn't employ -- it doesn't imply that recession will be with us for long. there are some countries that have serious challenges and the purpose of davos is to

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thank you for joining on radio, on television. 8:31 friday morning. what will be the state of play? jonathan: 390,000, the estimate on payrolls. the previous, 341,000. unemployment may be at 3.5%. the data pretty decent. the earnings, so far, so good. fears about the future and this federal reserve. whether they have to respond to this fears about the future and the next few months. most people assume they won't through the summer. tom: we are getting ahead of the story. tomorrow, that fed meeting. i'm sorry, jerome powell is looking at a fully employed america, according to too many voices. jonathan: and that is why he's set to hike rates 50 basis points, and then maybe 50 again, and then let's see what happens. things get interesting towards the back have of the year. he believes this economy is resilient. he can hike rates may be 50 basis points tomorrow. does he had that view further down the road, and will he be faced with the ultimate dilemma, growth

lisa abramowicz caught up with the ceo. >> intel has been an incredible company as they built the pc, but qualcomm is different. qualcomm was always focused on building communication and creating the processing technology that will allow you to have a computer in your hands. tom: you love going need. is there -- nich ise there a risk. to moving away? haslind: -- cristiano: the technology scale is incredible. with the smart phone, it is an advanced conversational device that is connected. when we looked at digital transformation across every enterprise, wheat see demand for technology in other industries. the company continues to drive innovation, but the automobile is becoming a computer on wheels. we going to automobiles and every other industry transforms. lisa: you got an acquisition pitch from broadcom this morning it is reported that broadcom is going to acquire vmware. do you expect this to be the future that in order to have scale and substance, you need to consolidate? cristiano: broadcom has become a software company. with some of the acquisitions in the past, and i think vmw

it was quite a different davos it is somber but not lisa abramowicz. lisa: it is not like america where we are looking at a shooting, the worst since sandy hook in 2012 at a school with 22 now confirmed dead. how does this keep happening. as a mother and a human and american, how does this keep happening? tom: it is about an america divided less by peculiarities but about the united states senate that seems to be the focal point for democrats and republicans. we will continue the conversation with real markets upset yesterday. the markets more stable today and yields are stable. the turkish lira is a difficult story for mr. erdogan. i think we carry forward the conversation. lisa: there isn't issue where you are dealing with dueling tragedies. we are talking about the tragedy in america dominating the davos conversation and the tragedy in ukraine. that's how much of an existential question. tom: the turkish lira is up to 16.33 step that will be one of our themes this morning on the war in ukraine. for the president of the united states, it was most dif

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: can we avoid a seventh straight week of losses. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance live -- "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. tom: a churning to a monday. the currency market is there, the equity markets just can't get a bid and there's the drawdown on radio, standard & poor's -16%, maybe that's expected in the nasdaq in particular the nonprofit making nasdaq crushed. jonathan: mike wilson exceeded crushed even more. this could pass 3400 on the s&p. valuation and technical support live. tom: everybody was adjusting a not to criticize this extremely difficult to do the point of where you're going and the timing of verio going and a lot of adjustment over the weekend. i'm just an essay everybody is data-dependent including equity market strategist. jonathan: last week the fed president gave the game up for a lot of people. again and again, i expect financial condition to tighten even more. i would like to see continued ti

live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down another 1.9%. tom: what we can say across three hours over the preshow preparation and starting surveillance this morning, it is a situation that deteriorates. we will get out 34 vix in a moment. bitcoin under 33,000 joining the party. jonathan: big moves there and in the equity market and foreign-exchange as well. dollar index the strongest since 2002. tom: we are very dollar centric, and by that i mean foreign-exchange centric. turkish lira blowing through 15. the immovable force is the 10 year yield, 3.18%. did we get to 3% of a cup of coffee ago? jonathan: 3.20% now. the five-year the highest since 2008. we are pushing ahead to the big one this week, cpi this wednesday. lisa: looking forward, is that going to be something we see decelerate, this idea perhaps the fed will get a reprieve from that? we are talking about the idea of risk not stemming from the fed, stemming from supply chains out of china, stemming from oil prices that are searching having to do wit

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: a fed day on radio and television. we continue our coverage. paul romer, dealing with technology in this most unusual cycle. jonathan: what a difficult time for them. some might argue they got themselves into it. this is what we are looking forward to today, a 50 basis point move. from there, things get more complex. that is why people think today it will be difficult for the fed to outhawk expectations, because expectations are very frontloaded right now. what could be interesting about the market is any assessment of the future. tom: moments ago, talking about yes it is a store but also uneventful. i'm not so sure. the last time i was humbled, a lot went on. jonathan: a lot of people want to know the answer to the 75 basis point meeting for the next few meetings. i'm not suggesting he will do that, but how he answers that, a lot of people will look for the hints that lie in it about what it could mean for the future path. tom: you mentioned it earlier, lisa, what a different ec

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. bob: we think we are in a monetary inflation, which is a very different animal. we sing inflation has a 6 -- cyclical inflation is when you get a pop, pushes up against capacity constraints, inflation goes up. money and credit are under control. this is a monetary inflation like the 70's. it was triggered at the national -- the massive injection of credit by policy, which has created a self-reinforcing process. very high levels of nominal spending. 10% nominal gdp growth. i mean, it is a long time since we have seen i nominal gdp growth, right? so there is things happening other people are not used to, because we have not seen these dynamics for some time. the result of a monetary inflation is high nominal gdp growth, and then that gets absorbed by prices, so you get low real growth. that produces stagflation, which creates a very difficult policy choice. lisa: do you think the u.s. is facing stagflation? bob: we are headed toward it. lisa: in the next 12 months? bob: we are headed to

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. hon radio come on television, an important date :00 our wall street time. retail sales, it is simple. i can get the full english breakfast at walmart for six dollars 54 cents. let's link walmart into what we are going to see in 29 minutes. jonathan: did you just confuse a full english breakfast with breakfast tea? looking forward to it. a: 30 eastern time, retail sales. then the reaction from chairman powell little bit later this afternoon. we have said repeatedly on this show we know how consumers feel. they tell is in the surveys. they don't feel great. consumer sentiment numbers decade lows. what are they doing? we will get a snippet of that this morning. tom: we will review what we talked about two hours ago with the backdrop we got a guest coming up that says calm down about inflation, but there's no calm in the bank of america fund managers survey. jonathan: absolutely not. growth expeditions are at record lows. you've got an allocation to equities a

dudley, who was also a bloomberg opinion columnist, was speaking to tom keene and lisa abramowicz. >> the fed has not been forceful in enough in stating their goals with the means to achieve that goal. chair powell last week did not want to talk about why monetary policy might just have to go to neutral, but tight. a tight monetary policy is what is going to be required to get inflation under control. >> why are they timid? >> it is not clear to me. certainly they are not timid about talking about what the end goal is. but 2% inflation, you have to describe how you're going to get there. if you start to sugarcoat it, then financial conditions do not tighten as much and you run the risk that people will lose confidence in the federal reserve. one thing in the fed's favor is people are confident they will do their job. under promising what is required, then there is a risk to the fed's credibility down the road. >> do you think this is really sugarcoating or do you think jay powell just does not believe you're going to get a more persistent level of inflation that many people including

lisa: let's move on before this goes south. [laughter] tom: lisa abramowicz, thank you so much. this is the conversation of the week, to say the least, or maybe the month. losses in the bond market. brooke masters over at "the ft" has done a tour de force on the new pimco, and a big part of that, is jerome should -- and a big part of that is jerome schneider, their head of portfolio short-term. jerome schneider says the bond math does not work, and joins us today. let's cut right to the math, whether it is off bill gross's munro trader were off of your four bloomberg screens. why does the math not work? jerome: when you look at where we are today, the market needs to look at the calibration we have seen predominantly in the front end of the market. we have seen a tremendous part of that come from the market place with regards to tightening financial conditions, which markets have really adapted to. more importantly, i think you have to rationalize where front end rates have come. the tightening policy process has come from the expectation of higher rates, but that has also put u