the lewin group, a health care consulting firm estimates this number to be higher. they estimate up to 70% of all americans who have private insurance today, 120 million americans will lose their health insurance and be forced on to the government payrolls. that stands in stark contrast to the president's repeated assertions that if you like your health care, you can keep it. and further yet, analysis by h.s.i. network, an economics firm, found to get all americans covered under the democrats' bill it would cost a staggering $4 trillion and result in 79 million americans who currently have private insurance having to obtain coverage from the government plan. what i've just described is known as the -- quote -- "crowd-out phenomenon" it's the substitution effect that occurs when a massive government insurance plan crowds out private insurance as the expansions of publicly subsidized programs encourage or force people from private arrangements to public ones. this is a real issue and one we must pay attention to. on monday the president said -- quote -- "i know that t

the lewin group showed a study if enacted the president's option would displace 119 million happily insured americans. their companies could take the easy route and sign a fine and tell employees to sign up for the washington-run health care even they don't want it. how does that square with the assurance that's people can keep what they have. a may 14th rasmussen poll shows that 70% of americans rated their coverages as excellent. another 23% rated it as fair. so most folks are happy with their current insurance and would not appreciate being pushed into washington's health care bureaucracy with all of its complex rules and hours of waiting on hold and webs of bureaucracy. and then there's the matter of cost. how much will it cost to add 47 million to the health care rolls? who will pay? to not know the answers to these questions is to be fiscally irresponsible. we don't have precise estimates from the congressional budget office whose responsibility it is to tell how much the legislation will cost the tax paimples the congressional budget office preliminary estimate shows that only a part

but what lewin and associates, a consulting group says, unfortunately because private employers are likely to dump their employees into the government run system, about two-thirds of the people that have insurance today, 119 million people, would end up with the government run plan rather than the private insurance they have today. when the president says, if you like your insurance coverage you get to keep it, i hope what he means is that we won't do anything in our legislation to make that more difficult for you. but, if in fact the predictions of consulting groups like lewin come true, what will happen is that employers faced with this situation where it is much cheaper for them to insure their employees through this government ran plan, will take 119 million people, transfer them from private insurance to government insurance. wet that point you don't have any option, said the government run plan is not like it is an option for you unless you want to change jobs to an employer who is willing to maintain the coverage. those are going to be few and far between. and the same thing is true

but if in fact the predictions of consulting groups like lewin come true, what will happen is that employers, faced with a situation where it's much cheaper for them to insure their employees through this government-run plan, will take 119 million people, transfer them from private insurance to government insurance. at that point you don't have any option, so the government-run plan is not like it's an option for you, unless you want to change jobs to an employer who's willing to maintain the coverage. and those are going to be few and far between. and the same thing is true with the individual health care market. so the bottom line is that when people say to you, well, if you like your coverage, you're going to be able to keep it that's not really true. and incidentally, under the bill that's being written by the finance committee, that's splice thely not true either. that's why we're concerned about this, because even though you may like the insurance you have today, the federal government can't tell me what care i can get, it won't be too much longer before that may not be true. you will