what's a better way to play the country? >> i think the etf is the worst way to play brazil. u a big slug of iron ore and oil. it's a great accumulation of cellular phone subscribers, great users of banking services. there's a lot of great ways to play brazil. the etf is the worst one you could choose. >> you see -- >> go ahead, jim. >> i've agreed with many things david said and let me tell you why the etf is a for way to play it, because you've got to think domestically now and think how our government is dead set on destroying the dollar, in which case, you want to be in commodities, you want to be outside the u.s. so, that's why i flocked to brazil in the first place and i think that trade is still intact, the commodity trade, the value other than the u.s. dollar. >> i couldn't agree more. >> your ball, okay. >> i think it's going down and going down hard, but you can buy commodities in a lot of ways, you don't have to buy them in brazil. >> but brazil -- >> in buying the commodity story in brazil, we read in the paper about the big oil finds there, and increasingly, they

the china etf. she was down 4%, tim. >> she was down and she'll be down and out till next friday because they're take the whole week off in that market. stock's down. >> pop for rio de janeiro. the brazilian city has won the vote to host the 2016 olympic games the first time the world's largest sporting event will be held in a south american country. after rio beat out brazil, chicago, and tokyo the city erupted in celebration as cross famous cope cabana beach. >> i speak portuguese. >> do you really? >> we can do a whole thing on my portuguese. >> dinero rapido? >> it's good stuff. >> cope ka bana. >> coming up next, some picks gone wrong. tell you what your next move should be. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. we're first in business worldwide. you know me. almost 30 years behind the sports desk has turned me into somebody larger than life, literally. but those days are back-back-back-back-back gone! i'm chris berman, and i lost 41 pounds with nutrisystem. just order nutrisystem for men today

the other thing i find intriguing about the etf business, if you as an individual investor decide you are very constructive on brazil, you can buy an etf whatever it costs you on the floor of the exchange, execute and have a diversified portfolio brazilian stocks. so the etf market is a market that's going to have tremendous growth. it's going to be a larger and larger component of the overall mutual fund platform. it's a business we think is complementary to our strong fundamental retail mutual fund platform. >> for a long time etfs were thought of as retail. now you are seeing institutional players. >> dennis stattman, too, as a mechanism to get exposure. etfs can provide institutions with exposure. i think i read recently that some of the large endowments invested in etfs as an asset allocation. so we are seeing about 50% of the market today is institutional. 50% retail. the market has really expanded. >> and there's tax efficiency and transparency also going along with that. let me bring in bob doll to talk about where he is investing right now to get a sense. bob, are you with us

start legging in into the decline on the diversified play, the iyr, the etf, and avoid the weakest reits. a will not advocating on this show. cismly not go up if i am right and most likely go down a heck of a lot more than the others if i am wrong. so don't mess with the statistically worst of breed. stephen in minnesota. stephen? >> caller: hi, jim. >> hi, stephen. how are you? >> caller: hey, a small town buea from minnesota. the host of the pga championship and one of the "money" magazine's best places to live in america. >> you know what i got a big boo-yah shout-out to your town. it's nice to hear a little optimism now and then. >> caller: hey! hey, here is my question, do you consider prolodgis under the commercial real estate label or would industrial real estate be a separate category? and within that context, given their financial position and their position in the global supply chain, how do you see their prospects for the long term. >> you know my old friend justin namis who i saw recent who is my premier chartist. i bumped into him when this stock was into the low and single

there's more put buying on the etf side? >> that's right. if you thought this earning cycle would play out the same as the last earning cycle, you would take advantage of elevated volatility, but we don't see that. that tells us that the option market is saying it's not going to play out the same way. plus as dan said, the story where the companies miss on the top line, beat on the bottom line, that's not going to work this time because that's just going to be seen as disappointing. >> i think you have to consider from a economic standpoint, we're seeing the put buyers. all of that is similar. few things that are different, we're just not moving as much as we were. since this rally started in mid july, looking at the s&p 500 intraday moves, we have seven that have been more than 2%. you look at that three months heading into last earnings quarter and 7 was a drop in the bucket. it was absolutely nothing. you look at those average moves, that month heading into earnings last quarter. last quarter was 1.5 times greater than the average move go

. >> what is troubling is the sell-off we're seeing in the etf. last quarter financials were the top performing sector for the third quarter, the best quarter in about 11 years. j j.j., you're seeing aggressive put buying. >> we talked about this last week. october 15th, 14th, and 13th puts. they haven't stopped for two weeks. very aggressive buyers. they're starting to buy the november 15 and 14 puts. when the market weakens, it will be the footballs thinancials th first chink in the armor. as john just talked about, that level is what every trader is looking at right now on the s&p. >> let's talk about private he can -- equity firm kkr. joe, is this interesting to you? they will be sitting on a whole bunch of cash, billions of dollars. they haven't done an lbo in about two years. >> absolutely. it is a little interesting right now. the entire space is interesting. clearly their entree now, if you're an investor and you're looking at a name like this, i think it is a name you could possibly own. >> we're going to leave it there for the halftime r

are etfs the way to go. we'll check this out when we come right back. >>> after the bell, we'll discuss how president obama can overcome the hurdles. his financial regulatory reform his financial regulatory reform schedule. >>> we've got great news today out of the fed. growth moderating. but manageable. inflation unanimously not an issue. housing koishts to be a little built of a problem, but we all know that. i think the market set up the rally further. >> i see equity markets just modestly higher from where they are now. i think the big concern is much higher interest rates, lower bond prices, and central bankers around the world have to raise interest rates to enhance inflationary expectations. >> we mark this two-year anniversary closing at the all-time highs on the dow and s&p. time for the "fast money" "final call." the dow at a 52-week high. and that important anniversary. let's look forward to where we might be trading, how the markets might look two years from now. can the rally continue. i'm joine

i think you've seen the real arrival and growth of the etf markets providing easy access, quick access to emerging markets, which are obviously doing well. there is no substitute of what you saw earlier with dennis stattman and the work he is doing, fundamental research, buying the best companies in the world we think will thrive again as the economy begins to recover. >> now that you have such an enormous amount of assets, i want to ask you about that when we come back about etfs and do you need that kind of research as it relates to etfs the way do you with equities? thank you so much. we appreciate you joining us today. we've got the closing countdown next and the closing bell after this break. after the bell, bob daal will downus gig us his take where we are in terms of the market action. ll will downus gig us his take where we are in terms of the market action. l will downus gig us his take where we are in terms of the market action. will downus gig us his take where we are in terms of the market action. will downus gig us his take where we are in terms of the market action. ol wi

coming up we take a closer look at the industrial etf. coming up on thursday investors are going to be plants close attention to the kind of focusing on a matter of fact and the i s m #that affect trade index which measures economic activity involving orders and production. even the manufacturers continue to be a smaller slice of all u.s. economy is still such a test ban on such a cornerstone psychologically speaking americans will think of their economy is making tangible things here. industrial sector is strong traded bonds once tried to crawl out of the sector but has there began the losses that we saw from when you go. x l i in your today it is up a little more than 12% since terreri still underperforming the s&p 500 but is up 17% and it is only made up about half wrong lost since september of 2008 when i see this tells me this is going to follow the basic overall economy and the second quarter of becoming a is vlasto% which is generally seen as the bend but nasa and the pick of the we saw an instant cash for clunkers continue and the

volatility is so cheap -- >> we've seen the put buying when it comes to etfs that track the financials. >> absolutely. the xlf you've seen a lot of put buying there. is it speculative to the down side i? think it's much more protective right now than anything. >> bullish refrms in gold today. commodity closes higher by 13 bucks above the $1,000 mark. joe, you made a pretty good move on gold in terms of buying it when you did a couple weeks ago. >> what was miss k this morning from a higher equities market was the participation of the commodities space but got that as we went further along in the day. right now the commodities tried trade, the gold trade, it is not about inflation, it is about liquidity. it is a liquidity-driven trade right now. gold looks like it wants to take out the 1033.90 high back from the bear stearns days. commodities, you had a nice reversal in oil, nice reversal in copper and when you look at the equities names themselves the coal names pete talks about, the steel names i talk about, they were on fire this morning. the entire commodity space i believe through

tele brasil is rallying right now. >> that must be the brazilian etf, wisdom tree. >> up half a percent. >>> let's leave brazil. we'll get back there sometime. we'll be talking to dick ebersol a little later. let's talk about today's jobs number, the state of the economy, the losing bid by chicago. i guess jared would want to address that as well. jared bernstein who is now chief economist for vice president biden. i joins us from outside the white house. we're always grateful for your time. thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> let's start with the olympic p bid. the president went, tried to use some star power, just didn't work out. >> that's true. every time you go out, you're not going to get a win, but this president is by far the greatest ambassador for our country's interest that i and i think most other americans can imagine. so you can't win if you don't try, and this president certainly made the effort. >> the jobs number, 263,000 jobs, certainly more than had been anticipated. does it signal a change in some of the progress that had been made in the recovery to this po

when it comes to the tech etf or buy protection at this point? >> well, you mentioned it at this top about brocade. obviously the fact they're putting themselves up for sale. one of the things i noticed was hewlett and oracle, two of the names mentioned as potentially acquirers, both had a fairly positive response. my take away is we may well hold because i don't see that much pessimism in that area right now. >> on the pencil discussion, i think if charts were so easy to read, we'd all be rich. the fundamentals in tech remain incredibly strong. these are catch-rich companies. i agree with jon about the buy on rimm. when it pulls back 20%, it's still selling double digit growth. there's a lot there to be in irrespective of whether or not you have a 200-day moving average that looks nice. >> have to talk about dr. j about brocade. is there still room to play that? >> you bet. but i'd be somewhat conservative about it because the stock has moved over $1 already today, but like mike said, it's interesting that oracle and hewlett both have upside cal

known as an etf. exchange-traded fund is the kind of gold you should buy. research this term -- gold etf fund. because gold etf allows you to own the underlying gold without you having to handle it, store it, or without you paying big fees to buy and sell it. but i would be careful taking too much of that low-earning cd money and throwing it into gold. because that would ultimately prove to be very risky. >>> michael is with us, hello, michael. >>. >> caller: hi, clark, how are you? >> great, thank you. i understand that you were ill recently. are you okay now? >> caller: much better, thanks for asking. last month i had to go to an emergency room locally for flu symptoms. and saw the doctor for a few moments, paid the bill, left, everything was fine. then i get about a month later, i receive another bill for doctor services. and i, is this normal? because i asked when i left the hospital -- what my total was. and they gave me a total amount, i paid it. and now i've received another bill. i didn't have any lab work or anything like that. it was basically jus

explain. >> well, we're seeing, you know, the eem, which is the emerging market etf, a lot of buying in the october 37 puts. lact week we saw a lot of the november puts. in brazil, as you just mentioned, they're celebrating right now, even though we in chicago are a bit sad today. >> so right now it's around 38. people are buying the right to buy it at 35, as far out as january. they think it's going to go down? >> to sell at 35. >> sell at 35, yes. >> they think it's going to go down. the interesting thing is, people just aren't playing the emerging markets on this. they're actually using it as a little synthetic for the financials. one of the things we've seen is the xlf and a lot of the financials, we've seen a lot of buying of puts there also. not only do they think the emerging markets might be a little bit weak, but what they're also saying is if there is some kind of pullback in the overall financial group, they won't be able to invest as much money as before. one thing the emerging markets need right now is a constant inflow of dollars to keep them going as they are. >> thank

there's also a small cap etf, ticker br frchlt. it's the market vertical small cap brazil etf. we think that's an easy way to play the small caps. trades about 10 million a day, so it's pretty liquid. that's another name we like to play, small caps for brazil. >> the other good news for brazil this year, the huge oil find off the coast. >> yeah, petrobras has discovered a lot of oil offshore on the pretty solid area. that's kind of a long-term investment theme for brazil but it's definitely a sizable find. so there is going to be investment needed to bring it out of the ground, but yes, it's definitely another positive for the investment case in brazil. >> what about security? do you remember the movie "city of god" which was all about the horrendous crime levels there and the gangs that could take over the city at some point? they're going to have to do that as well. >> yeah, crime is a problem in brazil. it is in most major cities around the world and also the major emerging markets. so they will have to host that issue. they're hosting the fifa world

for people playing that at home you can do that with the uup, which is an etf which is essentially that same basket. if we break through that on the up side i think the dollar's going to be tough to stop in the short run but i don't see anything here that tells me the dollar is going to go through that area and i think if you look at the dxy today it is the story of today's market. we were all over the place and i think the dollar's finding direction now. and the other place we saw the reaction very sharply and very quickly to the jobs report today was the bond market. we did see that yield on the 30 go below 4%, remain below 4%. the ten-year hitting 3.16. karen, your position on the tlt -- >> that's not what i want to happen. rather the tbt rallied. the tlt short started to go down. maybe overreaction -- this has been coming for the last few weeks. and the strengthening in the bond market. the long end of the bond market has actually obviously not worked for this trade. when the market started to come back, i am more optimistic this data we've had in the last few days is not indicative

there's an etf, uup, power shares dollar bull this is the ironic safe as is going to go up. >> i think it is interesting. because of the dollar, the dollar is so weak. >> that's the most interesting part. >> jonathan? >> the dollar is a safe haven. >> yeah. i do think the dollar is in a long term trend we've seen it do terribly certainly the last six, seven years. when the stock market falls the dollar trend rallies. >> i agree. >> speaking of the marques, jonas, next week are -- of the markets, jonas, next week are we in trouble? >> i think the economy is not going to recover as fast as people hoped. >> guys thank you, had a great time with all of you, as usual that is it for thanks for joining us. have a great weekend. real quick, trace, next week is going to be on? >> shakey, shakey. >> happy monday morning to you, october 5, 2009. we hope had you a great weekend. we have some serious news to turning to right off the top. eight soldiers ambushed and killed in afghanistan. why is the president's national security advisor down playing the need for more troops? we will take a closer lo

there's an etf, uup, power shares dollar bull this is the ironic safe as is going to go up. >> i think it is interesting. because of the dollar, the dollar is so weak. >> that's the most interesting part. >> jonathan? >> the dollar is a safe haven. >> yeah. i do think the dollar is in a long term trend we've seen it do terribly certainly the last six, seven years. when the stock market falls the dollar trend rallies. >> i agree. >> speaking of the marques, jonas, next week are -- of the markets, jonas, next week are we in trouble? >> i think the economy is not going to recover as fast as people hop.

we did see natural gas etf issuing shares for the first time since july. that also contributing to the rally in natural gas prices. rick santelli, to you in chicago. >> thank you, sharon. you know, this morning started out with some pretty interesting news. maybe it doesn't fix everything immediately. but to see it above 50 reads for the first time in a year on the biggest section of the economy in terms of the service sector, it was really good news. now, everything fell into place. the equities did better. but the dollar didn't. interest rates normally associated with moving higher on good data. well, they're virtually unchanged. if you look at a one-month chart of the dollar index, we're only 3/4 of a cent within striking distance of the one-year low, closing around 76 the 23rd of september. the beginning of fiscal 2010 for the u.s., there's going to be less bills, and this is important. now, if you look at interday 10s, not a big wild day. maybe tomorrow's three-year could be more wild, because if you're cutting off the road to t-bills at a time when p

some part to the ungetf and natural gas etf started issuing new shares today for the first time since july. this is a $4 billion fund. some traders note that natural gas futures prices started to take. we're looking at them doing so right now. they will be back by total return flop. rick santelli, to you in chicago. >> the dynamic continues, sharon, as the day progresses. yields which started out a little bit higher or close to unchanged, i should say, have moderated again. so we've gone from 320ish to 318 and the ten-year doesn't sound big but it is a large move considering, of course, that today kicks off this week's every other week supply scenario. at 11:00 eastern we get an announcement to drive by option tomorrow. 11:0030 eastern, total of $60 billion. and then at 1:00 eastern, the official coupon options begin. but in this case, it is a tips auction, treasury inflation protected securities, 7 billion of those ten-year tips. the you're look agent the dollar, clinging close to unchange after a slightly higher week. erin isn't in. it's mark, back to you. >> yeah, i came back from

known as a gold etf, exchange traded fund, where you will buy actual ownership of gold that will be stored for you off site, not in your possession, but you will have the value of that actual gold. and with that, what happens is that you buy gold and you buy it with just money. then you buy it from an outfit that stores it for you and when you want to sell your gold, they take your gold and they sell it to somebody else. i know it sounds like i'm talking about some kind of scam or something, but this is completely legit. and then you don't have to deal with the storing of the gold. you don't have to deal with the big rip off they charge you to buy the gold. you don't have to deal with the big rip off when you go to sell it. here's the neat thing. let's say you want to turn that gold back into money, you can do it like that. you can sit down at your computer and, in the blink of an eye, you can sell your shares and in a couple of days, you have your money in u.s. dollars. >>> do i have great bargain news for you for christmas shopping. if you go back over recent years, the toy market

that concern, would you then go into an oil etf, which could be impacted? >> absolutely. today the uso performed just as well on a percentage basis as oil futures themselves. >> karen, you've been concerned about the cftc proposed regulations, et cetera, limitations on futures holdings. so therefore, you know, does this geopolitical risk remove that sort of concern? does it outweigh it at is this point? >> i don't think it does. even if you take the cftc out and they make no changes at all to the ung or the uso or any of those, it is interesting the contango or backwardation could make the uso either underperform or outperform oil. we saw it underperform last year. you get a big rush to buy oil? i think, joe, you would know this better than i but i think uso would actually outperform. >> and the contango is beginning to come out of the marketplace right now. the spot contract is only 25 cents below the next month's contract. >> i think the cftc conversation, if you chart oil you could see once that conversation started oil really ran out of gas, pardon the

fiscal year earnings for calendar year '09 are probably going to be about $60 a share for etf. probably talking about $560 billion in net profits. i think what you want to look at is next year where you're probably going to see something on the order of $76 and close to $700 billion in net profit. i think one of the things that realm jumps out at me, carl, multiple expansion. >> i was going to ask about evaluation. >> i guess i'm the dummy out there. i should have been buying when we were trading next year's fourth quarter of '08. nobody did. everyone was running and hiding their money under a mattress. subsequently on the quarter went 14, 15, now trading 16 times next year's earnings. okay. love this expression. historically go back to the '50s over any decade the average multiple is about 15 times earnings. we're trading at 16. there's a lot of good news facing this number. >> if you look at the post-war experience with tough recessions, we've got two, '7, '75 and '81, '82. over subsequent years, what did earnings do? >> a big jump up when you go from negative to positive. yo