rick santelli's got it in chicago, rick? >> the university of michigan sentiment survey 80.0. 80 right on the nose. this is close to expectations. you could say a little light. our last read which was the preliminary for march at 79.9 was very close to this number obviously and this will be the weakest number since november last year when we were at 75.1. and just to put a final face on this, last july 85.1 was the highest read going all the way back to july of 2007. so, we have lost a bit but still holding an 80 handle. interest rates on the week are down a bit. carl, back to you. >> rick, thanks so much, rick santelli in chicago. >>> jim, what's coming up tonight? >> we've got finish line. the group has been under pressure, the footwear group, let's find out what is selling. the company had a good quarter plus six, but there's always a story here that perhaps retail is slowing down. that has been the theme. remember, retail is the one that looks like it's breaking down, you know, after biogens broke down they're trying to

carl, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. rick santelli. jim, "mad money" tonight, you've said markets trying to make a stand here. >> yeah. it's a little early. i like the fact that aerospace is finally going up. i see some bids, you know, being underneath in the drug stocks. i think there are people who will say, i want to take profits on the short side. other people say, listen, let's step aside and only buy companies that have a good domestic story. i've got a company on tonight. a spec company. and it's had in mind big data. big data, we see this, big data, cloud, these buzzwords mean a lot to the growth managers. take a look at that. the cloud group that is publicly traded right now has not been holding up well. >> castlight indicated 29 to 31. this will be a ripper today? >> well, there's three more cloud companies next week if you miss this one. three more coming public. i know we don't like to see that kind of heavy concentration especially when the workdays have been sluggish and salesforce.com the granddaddy. have a good weekend.

let's get to rick santelli in chicago. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. yes, this is a big topic considering i'm standing in the epicenter of chicago, i'd like to welcome moody's jack door, thanks, jack, for taking the time. >> my pleasure, rick. >> listen, as carl pointed out, you folks have chicago -- at least some of chicago's debt, we'll go over that in a minute, three notches above junk, s&p at a-plus, put out a report but didn't lower, doesn't have negative outlook. and there are about six levels above junk. so tell us what exactly you did at the end of last week and tell us why it's in your opinion a little bit higher rating than your counterpart. >> sure. well, we lowered our general obligation rating on chicago's debt to baa 1 from a3. and really the reason for that, rick, is -- >> what number do you peg on it? i get different numbers. i don't mean to interrupt, but what number do you peg? >> we adjust these figures basically to put everything on an apples-to-apples comparison by using a common discount rate. so the number that we have in terms o

rick santelli is amazing. he has a gazillion followers on twitter and to my knowledge you still haven't tweeted once, have you? >> no, no. i'm waiting for that definitive moment of ultra information. >> we will know something is important when rick santelli has tweeted. >> you know, bill, i have nothing against tweeting. i have nothing against social media. i think it's a great dynamic, a disruptive dynamic that's a lot of good within our economy. just not my cup of tea. but i'll tell what you is my cup of tea, watching these ten-year note yields. granted, the range is very compressed but we're coming down and we're about to ready to slip under yesterday's low yield which is about 2.76 1/2 for you fine tuners out there. we were talking about china. i like when you brought up copper and iron ore. not only are there dynamics with the weakening of the yuan and i have charts that show yuan versus dollar overlayed with copper prices, but when you start thinking back five years with all the rare earth and industrial

tim leach, marty patel, steve liesman is with us, so is rick santelli. we are ready to go here. steve liesman, i will start with you. we haven't mentioned janet yellen's speech today. she made it clear exactly how dovish she is, didn't she? >> which is a key issue for fed and fed policy and what she said is that there's an awful lot of slack in the labor market as far as she's concerned. she mentioned people working part time for economic reasons, people unemployed for longer than six months. she talked about five different metrics and if there was any doubt how dovish she was on the issue of labor. i think the thing that moved markets was her saying that this required the fed to remain easy for at least some time. didn't walk back the six-month comment, but in a subtle way suggested maybe it was longer than six months. also, bill, taking a very populist tact for a fed chair. she mentioned individual americans by name and their experiences in the job market and later in the day maybe we can bring you this after her speech, hopefully we'll be able to bring you this video later, s

back to you. >> rick, thanks so much. rick santelli in chicago this morning. we want to bring in art cashin, director of floor operations at ubs. we have had this conversation many times, art. >> yes, we have, going back to the flash crash and before. >> yes. but to what degree is he changing the conversation on the floor today if at all? >> no, i think there's a chatty fallout. i mean, it was an obvious effort to promote the book. so you want to say the most ear-catching phrase you can. and a rigged market is a prettier catching phrase. but many of the multidecade veterans like me around are not particularly fans of high frequency trading nor of the rebate system that's helped build them. in fact, well, you and i have had this discussion, i think that was primarily a reason for the flash crash is people began to send orders to venues that turned out to be vacant hoping that they would get a better rebate there. and, you know, i think some of the high frequency stuff is distorted. you hear numbers about them being 70% of the volume. that must mean they trip ov

and rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> well, we're going to be kind of dissecting some of the data points today. something important in a revision on construction spending. we're going to look at income and spending and natural gas problem and our own natural gas export/import infrastructure and differences between zell and buffett all at the bottom of the hour. scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. you can't always see them. but it's our job to find them. the answers. the solutions. the innovations. all waiting to help us build something better. something more amazing. a safer, cleaner, brighter future. at boeing, that's what building something b

let's go to rick santelli who is in chicago. i understand you're talking about the value of money. >> absolutely. i like to welcome my guest mike. mike, the interesting thing about you and your organization is, if something happened in 2006. what did the fed do? >> the fed discontinued reporting on m1, m2, and m3. one, they couldn't track some of the data, euro dollars and repurchase agreements. they're the fed. i think they saw things that they didn't want others to see. >> think helicopters. okay. now, what makes you think that you can reconstitute what they didn't want to continue to constitute because your group puts out the ms? >> we do. and we use their data. and then one other thing, and that is with the foreign bank deposits, that's double counted in m2 and m3. we track that and take that out. they don't do that. >> in the early '80s, 2:30 eastern when money supply came out that was the most active time on the trading floor back then. i still think it's important. so on a simple level, do you see a deficiency or an over-

tobias, thanks. >>> let's get to rick santelli in chicago with today's santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. you know, there are certain things that are easy to talk about. there are other things that just aren't. we all know that old adage, you know, at the thanksgiving table when you're with family you want to stay away from politics and religion. why? people get infuriated and you never really reach a good conclusion. as of late thursday, big topic that fall s under that same category. global warming/climate change. we've had the president to the secretary of state talk about it recently in terms of the science is settled. science is never settled. that's why it's science. maybe economics gets settled once in a while but never scien scien science. i would be nervous when anybody that isn't directly part of the scientific community tells you science is settled because, see, governments have a big vested interest in climate change. the reason i'm talk ak it today is in the context of what's going on with russia and germany and ukraine. it's all abo

>> first of all, let me say rick santelli's dreams are probably my nightmares. let's get that straight. no, i mean, i think she's going to come out and take another ten off the monthly asset buys. we're talking about a mere $55 billion a month now in quantitative easing and as maya suggested, perhaps a shift from less quantitative to more qualitative forward guidance. we'll see about that. but i think the important point and here i disagree with rick, i think what we'll hear from chairwoman yellen is that the economy still needs some help from monetary stimulus. it is not out of the woods. output gaps remain strong. inflationary precious remain very que he is sent. i think -- that by the way has been the message of previous meetings, so i expect consistency in that regard. >> maya, the one concern we tend to hear from people when they think about a stronger u.s. economy, what happens when rates go up and we have to do something to address the longer term entitlement issues and the u.s. government perhaps is paying a little more in interest? what's your main conc

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning. and as we go into the first day of a two-day fed meeting i've written or excuse me, i have read so many articles handicapping the u.s. economy. how the u.s. economy relative to other economies, you heard professor today. we're just traunching the advance to economies and we're keeping up with the advancing economies like china to developing economies and in the end, it really is all about the horsepower of an economy, whether it's relative to other economy or in the big picture if you need revenues and you need expansion and you need a bigger pie, it isn't just benchmarking against others. it's growing on your own. remember when your mom, you say, just because jimmy's walking over the edge of a cliff doesn't mean you have to follow him. sometimes you have to stand alone. and one stand alone area in this country really is energy. you know, yesterday "wall street journal" had a great piece. didn't have anything to do with energy. but it did have something to do with drones and governmen

how'd it do, rick santelli? >> it didn't do badly considering how many yields they've had of late. c-plus is the grade. the yield as auction, .469. the bid to cover a 3.20 was a little light on auction average. $3.30 normally instead of $3.20. we have one good number here since 2011 direct to 21.5, very average. 35% of this auction was taken by dealers. so c-plus. it priced pretty well. everything about it was fairly average. and tomorrow, of course, 35 billion five-year notes. and tomorrow is going to be a key auction. that's the part of the yield curve that really played havoc with the street after the fed statement. s sue, tyler, back to you. >> let's run back to a couple of numbers. the dow right now a little bit higher by about 78 points at 16355. nasdaq off just a smidge. s&p 500 higher by five, about a quarter percent. russell is down a bit. 1,176. the ten-year note at 2.72%. we'll get to him in just a moment, but first to sheila. this is the main atf that tracks the biotech sector. and as you probably know if you've been watching cnbc the past few days, stocks down 12% in t

tyler, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you very much. seema now with a market flash. >> take a look at cliff's natural resources, not participating in today's big rally. wells fargo downgraded the stock to underperform from market perform due to a challenging macro environment. down about 2.5%, sue? >>> also an activist investor in that, casablanca capital. the profit is back tonight. >> so i wanted to talk to you about what happened. normally, in a situation like this, when the numbers are wrong, completely wrong, i would normally just walk away. but there's too much history, there are too many employees. you guys have too much at risk. i'm not going to let the bank take it from you. >> thank you. >> i like you guys. and i like the people that work here. >> i know the devastation that it would cause to both you guys emotionally and financially if i walked out. so i'm willing to stay and help, not as an investor today but as a guy who is willing to help you get things right. there's 50 people that work here. we are weeks away from closin

going to chicago and rick santelli with breaking news with another auction. >> yeah. tell what you. gave it a b, just upgraded it to a b-plus as i got the directs. putting a cap on $96 billion including the two year and the five year. the grade b-plus. the yield, 2.258. the one issued market was offered at 27.26 .26. darn close, like yesterday. covering close to a 10 auction average. the 44.4 on the indirects. zooming, 32.6 pushing the dealer take on this auction to 26%. a b-plus caps the supply for the week, and everything else is just going to be left to the markets to-handicap, of course, the weekend and all the issues of the day. sue, tyler, back to you. >> all right, rick. i'll pick it up. thanks very much. >>> matt mcelwain, if this announcement includes the migration of microsoft office to ipad, what, if anything, does that imply about microsoft's belief and commit to the surface tablet? >> uh-huh. >> well, i think that it can be strong on the surface tablet, but what it's really imply is that their greater strengths today on onnare on the applicat today and what they're buil

rick santelli, calling them like he sees them. dominic chu? >> sinking, check out this chart, it's bad. this company really is falling after it received a sieve maciv investigative demand, cid from the bureau. the purpose, determine whether finance companies or unnamed persons have been or are engaging in unlawful acts or practices. investor are not accepting world acceptance now. the stock is down big. you can see down about 19%, 20% on the session overall. tile ir, back to you. >> something i said? the dow is now down 200 points. the nasdaq down 1.5% on the session so far. there you see the dow sliding here at mid-session. one of the fears on wall street recently has been china. we talked about it yesterday. and today steve liesman and michelle caruso-cabrera, doing more digging. more evidence of a wave of trouble sort of moving across the pacific and around the globe. michelle, first, you're going to tell me about why all of this concern about copper? >> right. we've been telling you all week. copper is selling off hard this week, because w

sorry. >> thank you, rick. rick santelli in chicago. with that we will toss it to scott wapner. >> thanks so much. big day shaping up on the street. i know you've been following. you guys have a great rest of the day. here's what we're following at this hour. moscow and your money as tensions ease slightly in ukraine, is it safe to buy stocks? one of our guests has three names he says are bargains amade the worry. >>> abercrombie gets an upgrade in our call of the day but is it really on the comeback trail? touchdown or turnover? former nfl player philip buchanan is here pitching his new business idea to the

rick santelli in chicago. >>> some people have almost doubled their money overnight. coupons.com has surged 90% from its issue price. the ceo will join us after the break. ♪ [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ she can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪ anbe a name and not a number?tor scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. ...return on investment wall isn't a street... isn't the only return i'm looking forward to... for some, every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from

rick santelli is tracking the action. what did it look like? >> reporter: it looked ultra-average. the grade is c and it was pretty much average in just about every way we measure on the demand side. the yield at the $30 billion three year note auction, .802 so a whisker above 80 basis points. the bid side, the bid side was 80 basis points so it tailed just a bit. 3.25, $3.25, chasing every dollar available, that's called the bid to cover. basically that's average. 29.9, below the 35% ten auction average of indirects, 15.5 in directs, little under the 16% ten auction average. dealers took 54.6%. we always like when investors take the lion's share. tomorrow, of course, we will be moving further down the curve to ten year notes and i see stocks make new lows right around the time of the auction. i can tell you this. i don't think it was the three year note auction that was the catalyst. back to you. >> i think you're probably right on that. we will talk about the market in a few minutes. thank you very much. >>> back now to that puerto rican bond offering. these are triple tax free.

we'll talk to him in just a few minutes. >>> first, rick santelli in chicago. what have you got your eye on this morning. >> well, i think i continually trying to update how comments on cnbc this morning may affect treasury trading. we're going to look at what he said. we're going to look at the yield curve. we're going to look at what's going on in europe with potential quauntd tative easing. and we're going to put all that in one easy package called fits of normalization. right after this break. to manage your money. that's not much, you think except it's 2 percent every year. go to e*trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. spoiler alert. it's low. it's guidance on your terms not ours. e*trade. less for us, more for you. i have a cold with this annoying runny nose. [ sniffles ] i better take something. [ male announcer ] dayquil cold and flu doesn't treat all that. it doesn't? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus fights your worst cold symptoms plus has a fast-acting antihistamine. oh, what a relief it is! >>> look at the health kcare secto

rick santelli is at the cme. what was demand like? >> reporter: if jackie gleason traded bonds he would go how strong it was! that was a strong auction. we gave it an "a" for apple. if you're in debt and want to sell paper, this is what you want your auction demand to look like. let's go through it. first, it is really a ten year note because we auctioned what was the true ten year note a month ago. this is a nine year, 11 month we added into an existing issue. the yield at the auction, 2.729. what was trading in the one issue market, around 2.74. what was the low yield in the one issue market? well, it was higher than where we price which means lower yield, higher price, one of the main reasons for such a strong rate. in addition, the dealers took less than 30% of this auction. why? because the directs were strong, the strongest since april of 2013. the indirect were right on average and the bid to cover the best since march of 2013 at 2.92, solid, solid auction. tomorrow, $13 billion reopened 30s to cap out the supply. back to you.

let's see what's going on in chicago, the bond pits and rick santelli. rick? >> i tell you what, judge, we have to factor in, of course, that this morning's data in the industrial production, capacity utilization and some extent, empire, all better than expected. so all things being equal in normal times that should push up yields and equities and that's the case. 2.67, up two basis point on tens. we were only up one basis point for the datdata. we had 15-basis point down week last week and we're coming back up with two basis points the russian scenario doesn't seem to be a big force taking away the safety bid. we can debate how large it was or why we haven't seen a reversal there. that's monitored most of the session. look how overseas ten-years responded. it up a basis point. if you open up a year-to-date chart, it has the similar look to it, there's momentum more to the downside in yields than upside in yield. foreign exchange, look at epicenter, how the russian ruble looks against the dollar. one-day chart, it has a bounce going. let's see for how long. op

shei sheila dharmarajan and rick santelli. >> we had good economic data. the industrial production numbers were good and there was some relief there wasn't any kind of more aggressive action taken in crimea and ukraine following that referendum. the sanctions from the u.s. as expected. good data. a lot of good news about spinoffs and ipos which is always a positive for this market, and then also the markets pushed through a key resistant level of 1850 at the s&p 500, and so that helped to drive the markets higher. some traders say some short covering was involved there. so all of this on a light volume day, you get 188-point gain on the dow. >> sheila, the strength we saw across all the bourses, so what about some of these parts of the nasdaq, for example, where we've seen the biotechs ramping of late and anything there that might be a tell for the rest of the week? >> we saw a couple good signs here at the nasdaq today. the first had to do with the chip makers. we saw nice strength there. qualcomm leading the way after bullishness from stern ag. biotech s

brian jacobson, david molnar and our own rick santelli monitoring all the safe haven plays. brian jacobson, you say you want to buy everything you can get your hands on on this dip. why are you not worried with the rest of the market on what's going on with ukraine? >> i think this is just an overreaction to what's going on in lad, you wrote about national security issues and the soviet union. do you agree with that? is it okay to step into the markets here? because ultimately this isn't going to have a systemic effect on the rest of the global economy? >> i think, yes, i do. i think in a tactical sense this was just one of the headlines that no trader could predict, but on the other hand the russians have been trying to keep control of the ukraine for lun hundreds of years going back to katherine the great. they will not tolerate an independent ukraine. i saw an interesting note this morning, there's energy in the ukraine that could supplant the russians as far as being a supplier to western europe. there's a lot of things going on here. we'll hear more about it. this isn't

you deal with it. >>> now let's deal with the cme group and rick santelli. rick? >> i almost feel like doing a santelli exchange on that large barge. okay. we won't. we're going to do the santelli exchange on another large issue and that is weather. everything we discuss is going to be anecdotal. everything that we hear both sides really is anecdotal in my opinion. a big issue, traders are talking about how many times steve liesman talked a it yesterday. the beige book mentioned weather. it was a lot more than the historical norms. i understand that these are historical times with regard to weather. but i also understand that anecdotal frefd people i talk to, my cameraman, for example, has relatives who live in florida. you can't get in a motel and the people from the colder part of the country keep going down there. all the wires that were down in georgia, for example, well, a lot of overtime hours, a lot of extra people hired. two-sided issues. in chicago -- listen, the people who plow driveways are having a good year. people who sell salt are having a good year

let's get to rick santelli for the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, simon. thank you. i'd like to welcome our special guest today, representative jim jordan. thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule, sir. >> good to be with you today, rick. >> you're on committees and subcommittees that deal in three areas, energy, reform, and health care. my questions are going to be in those three categories. >> okay. >> with regard to energy, do we even have an energy plan, congressman? >> the house republicans have a plan. i don't think the president does. he won't approve the keystone pipeline. he won't tend natural gas we have an abundance of in europe to help the situation in europe and ukraine and putin. i don't think the president does. we have a plan which is use the resources, the good lord has blessed us with, use it in a way to help our economy and help the allies and help the world situation. >> i agree with you. i'm in your camp 100 -- 1,000%. it certainly seems as though that we are being held hostage by some of the extremes with regard to clim

first, rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> well, we're going to continue to look a bit at the yield curve but we're going to see which parts of it has dipped in the negative territory for the year. might be surprised how few maturities and see if we can help the president come up with ideas on how we can supplement the need for energy in germany specifically, europe generically. where, oh where, can we find some energy for europe? all coming up after the break. p. with all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. hi, are we still on for tomorrow? tomorrow. quick look at the weather. nice day, beautiful tomorrow. tomorrow is ful

david, back to you. >> all right, thank you very much, rick santelli. talking a lot about telecom, of course, given the interview the other day with masa son. but let's turn to a couple of bigger players in that arena, vodafone and at&t. the developing story if you will there. for quite some time it appeared that those two carriers' forechubs might be moving this way. but now they seem to be moving that way. like the hand signals? sometimes it -- it's tv but you can still do. why? well, let's take a look at recent history and, in fact, some comments that took place last week from the ceo of at&t and this morning as well at another investment conference from the company's cfo john stevens. all of it seems to be pointing to the idea that an at&t/vodafone deal is probably not in the cards anytime soon. of course, you may recall that there was so much speculation about it the two companies were forced to comment and enter a six-month coolingoff period for at&t where it wasn't going to do anything about it. but in recent weeks the signaling from at&t which,

let's head over to the bond pits with rick santelli at the cme group in chicago, morning, rick. >> good morning, kelly. well, as i look at intraday of tens, 268. i guess the only important thing is if you're not above kind of 270, '71 pivot or taking out 276 resistance anything above the low close of 2014, which is 258, is kind of in a range. it's heavily traded. now, if you often the chart a bit towards february, you can see all the consolidation right around that 270 and slightly higher yield level. if we consider the spreads, yield curve spreads as indicative fives to tens is the one to look at, year to date, it's kind of flat. and if we look at what's going on with the dollar/yen intraday, it's somewhat flat. open that chart up year to date at least of late somewhat flat. why do i bring this up? because both of those issues, the curve in the end auger we'll probably not have wild range, but we'll have to look after 2:00 p.m. eastern maybe there's something we don't expect. although many traders on this floor aren't looking for that. and the euro continues to be on a tear. this chart

steve moore and cnbc contributor rick santelli. rick, how did you read yellen today? >> i don't think think she said that much different than we heard from her before. the markets read a lot more into her than i did and they went down on something that they might as well have gone up on. if you say you might normalize sooner than people thought, that means the economy is improving. the market should haveom applaud that. >> rick, i saw this quote from leon cooperman. i think it was via doug cast but cooperman says if people don't believe oron don't understand tn interest rates have to go up, they shouldn't be in this stock market at all. i don't think a one percent interest rate is any big deal. i'm going get your take. was the impression that janet yellen was hawkish in your view? >> no, definitely not, larry. what we saw today in action was some of the nworld's biggest bod funds and their positions being long, threes being long, fives. they like to be long the heart of the yield curve around that five-year sector. if you look at threes or fives, they came out like a

the man who has the trader's ears, rick santelli and last but certainly not least, steve liesman. welcome, everybody and let's play. steve. >> 135. >> 135. ding, ding, ding. ben white? what are you thinking? >> 115. no change in the unemployment rate. >> jared bernstein, your predictions? >> 138 on the payrolls, unemployment ticks up a tenth to 6.7%. >> rebecca patterson, how about you. >> 130 on the payrolls, unchanged inemployment rate at 6.6. >> rick santelli, your guess? >> 120,000 on jobs and i'll take the fifth on the unemployment rate. i definitely don't want to be viewed as acknowledging it has any significance. >> steve liesman, your thoughts? >> 84. >> one more time. 84? >> 84. i have a crazy motto about the private sector. i don't think they'll add much to it. >> without going over? >> the price is right rules. it's got to be "price is right" rules. >> one job. that's my prediction. >> i will wonder, half of your brought down your numbers given the numbers we've seen this week. steve, 84,000, you adjusted that. >> manufacturing employment, other employment was really we

that is rick santelli. rick, we spoke yesterday about whether or not that sort of coiled spring was enforced. because everybody was so far on one side of the yield curve, what's the reaction one day later? >> i'm sorry. if somebody's really objective and they look at a 30-year bond, that's at exactly the same 365 it was before the statement yesterday. we look at a 277 ten-year on march 7th. it closed a basis point higher than that intraday on the 7th of march. it traded 282. so, to me, if everything was sound with the economy, in a traditional sense, the 10s and 30s should have felt that selling pressure as well. it was all on the short end. and i think it means that, you know, when somebody's irrational, emotional, you slap them. we saw the fed, in essence, slap the markets in may. not because they said anything shocking, because everybody knows, sooner or later, we have to normalize. i think it was one of those may moments yesterday, that the people holding the steepners just got nervous of what they thou

. >>> out to chicago, where rick santelli is tracks the interest raid and currency action. ricky? >> thanks, sue. aisle city trying to understand what tyler and steve were talking about with the fed. it's really important, but it's not really important. i don't know, i can't wait for the press conference on wednesday. if you look at a chart of tens, i can see things more clearly. we're up a couple basis appointments after the crimea referendum after our high yields on friday. if you look at a two-month chart, the treasury market is pretty much committed to a pattern. momentum is to yields to the down side. there have been corrections, but we still sit about 35 basis points lower than where we settled last year. if i look at the euro versus the dollar, it answers all questions. does this look like a currency where there's aggress in the backyard? it didn't so toe m the etf for munis, it's about to break out to the best levels -- we had the mayor of san jose. nobody really care being that anymore. steady as she goes. >> no, but that was a great interview. thanks. >>> you want 165 po

mark tepper, and our own rick santelli. and, folks, i begin our conversation quoting from today's edition of ""the financial times" which quotes seth coll sethklarman. he says any time in which the s&p 500 jumps 32% while corporate earnings barely increase should be cause for concern, not further exuberance. he says eventually buy the dips will be replaced with what was i thinking? ron mullencamp, i feel the need to go to you. you're a value investor like seth klarman. >> what seth is saying will be true eventually, but the assumption that the market going up 30% when the economy didn't do all that much assumes it was fairly priced a year ago. frankly, we think a year ago it was discounting a bit higher inflation. inflation has come in. it's about 1.7%. frankly, we think it's fairly priced for about a 2% to 2.25% inflation. there's all kinds of things out there that can hit it. you know the litany as well as i do, and the bears always have better specific arguments, but the ultimate bull argument is that this country and th

let's check in with rick santelli up in chicago at the cme. rick? >> well, judge, it's a fascinating day because here we are virtually on the highs on the dow and we've gone from 275 to 272 on a ten-year which leads any rational person to believe that a lot of these selling we've seen in the last several days is washing out some positions that were long, whether it was due to the ukraine or due to different views on the impact of weather into the statistics. now, if you look at an intraday chart you can see that, of course, 8:30 eastern the drop in jobless claims played into the dynamic of higher rates and fuel that reversal. here's the chart i like the best. everybody here is talking about we didn't have 3d printing in '09, we didn't have, i guess, cb printing on the same level we have, either, because if you look back to march 9th of 2000 the ten-year note yield was a dozen basis points higher than it is right now. so basically 386. we're hovering at 272. i find it fascinating that that's the way things have run up. it's very difficult to make muc

of course, rick santelli is in chicago. warren myers, what about this choppy market action we've seen recently? somebody said yesterday that to them it signifies an uncertain market, a confused market is also how somebody put it. what do you think? >> that's usually an indication of a choppy market. you get two very distinct opinions. because of that, you get a lot of up and down. we've been seeing quite a bit of that. not surprising given the run-up we've had in this marketplace and where we are economically with the u.s. economic data being marginally improved but some of the european issues creating uncertainty. it's not uncommon to have this choppy market. very nonunexpected is the way to put it. >> rick santelli, i'm out here in dayton getting a first-hand look at some of the excess capacity in this country. still, i can't understand why the 30-year bond went below 3.5% today. maybe you can help illustrate what's going on. what does that tell us? >> i think it tells me that, you know, at some point we're going to have

carl and the gang back to you. >> all right, rick thank you very much for that. rick santelli. that is a four-year low in nonmanufacturing ism. let's get to steve liesman for some analysis, steve? >> you want the good news carl? >> yeah, i want the good news first. >> the good news is the weak services sector report here goes along with the weak adp report so i'll get to that in just a second. but i went back to look at the last time we had an employment component in ism that was this low and i go back to may 2013. and in that same month we did 222,000 on jobs so a little bit hard to know how much to take from it. but it's clear that's weakness in the service sector as a result of this number. this number's very steady. it's the service sector of the economy. manufacturing goes up and down with the weather, with demand and inven other and service sector is haircuts and lawyers and all sorts of stuff like that doctors' appointments, it's not that volatile when it goes down it's something to take note of but maybe it's also a weather aberration i think what we're hearing. that's

. >> rick santelli up in chicago. nobody watches treasuries closer than rick. rick, what do you make of the move today? it was dramatic. we highlighted it at midday. and the yields kept dropping as the day went on. >> they did. we stood on a close of 264, 265. we're down about nine basis points. and i would go so far as to say half of the basis point drop had to do with crimea. i agree with the panel. crimea is going to be an issue, if you live there, who is going to be your boss? but geopolitically, natural gas is going to make it all work out. that's the factor to pay attention. as far as yields, look no further than guy adami, quoting the yields from february 3rd. low yield was 144. tens was 257. eight basis points away. 30s was six basis points away. this year for treasury's been an easy trade. the momentum for the most part has been all to the downside in yields. up side in price. when you look at all the issues globally, and i wouldn't dismiss any of them, europe, look at deutsche bank stock. china, look at recent data. average it out because of the lunar

rick santelli, always good to see you. >>> it's tweet time. air ball for samsung courtesy of lebron james. late yesterday the stupor star and spokesman for the company tweeted this. quote, my phone just erased everything it had in it and rebooted. one of the sickest feelings i've had in my life. james quickly deleted the tweet and trieded to down play with it additional tweets but the damage was done. so we're asking now, how should samsung exact revenge on lebron for his tweet? tweet us @squawkstreet. your answer on the show next. ♪ geico motorcycle. see how much you could save. for tapping into a wealth of experience. ♪ for access to one of the top wealth management firms in the country. ♪ for a team of financial professionals who provide customized solutions. for all of your wealth management and retirement goals, discover how pnc wealth management can help you achieve. visit pnc.com/wealthsolutions to find out more. >>> squawk on the tweet. lebron james, a spokesman for samsung tweeted displeasure with his mobile device yesterday. he

i'm between rick santelli and david stockman but i just don't understand with what i just heard over the last hour how any of this can end well. >> okay. sara, you want to respond. >> i have a question for you, guy. why is it so hard to believe that the fed couldn't engineer some sort of soft landing here for this recovery and for normalization of interest rates? >> maybe they can. maybe -- i'm confident that they're immensely smarter than me. i'm also confident they're academic wonks and they're not in the real world. i think everything they do and say works in the textbook. i don't think it necessarily works in real life. it's -- >> but this is real life. everything that's happened over the last four or five years has -- if anything -- >> the fed has never been good at making a forecast anyway. >> they have no idea what the exit strategy is, and i think if you slapped a lie detector on them, they have no idea how this things is going to end. >> that's an interesting point. >> a lot of folks want to know where does that leave me as an individual investor, as someone who has a large

. >> let's go to rick santelli at the cme. i had mentioned how the stock market and the markets have recovered post-fed bond yields have barely budged off their highest levels. >> absolutely. it is all about the yield curve but the funny part we all know it is about the flattening yield curve which has been the huge surprise but there is no surprise the debate as to why will it continue and is it a leading indicator, those are all under scrutiny. i'll give you one statistic that says it all. 364 on 30s. we're up four basis points on the week on 30s. we're up 20 basis points on the week on fives. that pretty much says it all. let's look at a two-day chart of tens. we're at 277. and open it up to one week chart, okay? 277s are wild. are we settled on fed wednesday, it is where we settled yesterday and trading today. and even though the yields are up on the week, it really does auger for the following charts to be so important. let's look at a one year chart of tens minus twos, that's had bouts of steepening but it's flattening a

quincy crosby, todd verchet, rod morgan, and our own steve liesman and rick santelli. steve, i will start with you. i mean, i know rick always gives treasury auctions a grade. what grade would you give this jobs report today? >> i'd say give it like a "b" considering that it had a tough time getting to school because of the weather and taking the test. i think amid what was clearly a tough climatic month, that at the end of the day you're going to -- 175,000 is a good number to have. there were some other signs of strength, bringing people back into the workforce and higher wages was a good one, too. >> rick, if you want to look at how this is being interpreted, look to the ten-year. 2.8%. do we start having the conversation about 3% next? >> well, i think so. you know, being a technician first, any kind of a close today for the week above 2.76% probably augusters you're supposed to have more of a short presence looking for resistant at 2.85% and 3%. it isn't only the economy and isn't only what's going on with the equity markets and how much they have surged. i also t

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let's get to rick santelli at the cme with a check on the bond market. rick? >> hi. i tell you, what a fascinating couple of days it's been since the fed statement and press conference on wednesday. we see that equities, of course, have rebound. yesterday we negated all the downside of wednesday. and today we're getting a bit more. but, it's a tale of two treasury markets. the flattening that was caused by short maturities like 2, 3, and 5-year, their interest rates moved higher. then they've pretty much died at that higher level. the long end, never really saw big spike in rates and it's actually moderating. we're about ready to slip under 2 3/4 in tens. so what does it all mean? many traders and this is the big talking point, think that the curve has just had a re-set, re-adjustment. if you want to know the direction of interest rates it's hard for them to envision rising rates if the 10 and 30 don't contribute to that. ongoing trying to handicap via trade. i would urge all technicians and viewers in the trading game to see which side of 275 the tens close on and m

tom carsten and our own rick santelli. ji gemma, your markets were very strong this morning. but you say the damage has been done. what are you talking about? >> it's a chance to buckle up because we're hin for a bumpy ride. the political tension has eased but the damage has been done and most importantly across the world the stocks are still trading on the news. it's looking more likely tit's going to be a difficulty want diplomatic struggle. the ukraine is still approaching bankruptcy and the most important thing we're seeing is the stocks that sold off the most yesterday that are rallying today are in the financial sector and in the tech sector and that's an overcrowded area where stocks -- there are great opportunities there, but they have been overcrowded and expensive, and, therefore, these momentum driven stocks are the ones that are actually trading off this news showing sentiment and political risk is still driving markets. >> it's so interesting, dick, we're probably going to have this kind of uncertainty along the europe/russia line, if you will, for some time. i m

santelli. abigail, what about this herky-jerky intraday kind of market we've had lately? that's been the pattern we've seen for the last few weeks. what do you make of that? >> you have really nailed it on the head there, bill. there are two things that stand out to me right now, and that is one of them. the intraday volatility. it reflects increasing uncertainty on the part of investors around the fundamentals and frankly it feels like the wheels are coming off a little bit. we have the high flyers falling, biotech, some of the technology names. we also have copper breaching long-term multiyear support. let's not forget europe. the dax is down almost 10% from its recent highs. all of this volatility, i think it's about to become unhinged. i think we're about to see a pullback similar to the beginning of the year, 6% to 10%, and something else stands out, the ten-year yield. we have bonds rallying in the face of a fed committed to the tape earned also with the fed chairwoman giving a time line

rick santelli in chicago watches them closer than anybody. rick, this has been a dramatic turn today, and it seems to me to be pretty swift, pretty severe in half of a session. >> absolutely. i'll tell you what, judge, the big story i've been speaking of for most of of 2014 is if you want to know what bonds and interest rates are going to do, think about there is no alternative the stocks. when stocks look dicey look for yields to move lower. today is an exception. after extensive calls to people all over the globe that trade fixed income in a variety of areas, including treasuries, here's what i've come up with. about 70% to 75% of the drop in yields after the retail sales data, they believe was crimea and they believe the remaining 30% is due to china, and that many, including myself, watch it second by second, this move was actually led by the interest rate sector with rates moving lower, unlike much of the move that we had in january which was completely led by the equity markets. >> rick, your know, 274, i think is where this day started

i'm going to start with rick santelli. because of the lack of consensus, mr. market, on what's causing this selloff today, you know, what do you make of that when nobody can agree on why people are selling equities today? >> oh, i don't agree with that at all. just because you have six different aisles at a supermarket being crowded, it's no reason to say you don't understand why they all want to get into the store. they do. so you have one aisle that's nervous about how the german stock market is trading. one aisle is nervous about the trend in china. both on their data, what they have to back their loans. all that has affected the yuan. we have another aisle looking at the stock market versus the treasury market in terms of where do you want to have your money. i think it all makes perfect sense. the thing that's different today, two things actually. the first is interest rates were leading stocks today. it was a close call, but that's what i've garnered. and i think the second issue is that all those things are proactive on the same session. >> amy, how muc

rick santelli tracks the action in all of that and is at the cme. hey, rick. >> reporter: hi. to pick up on mr. reader's topic if you look at an intraday of tens, we are down a basis point settling at 2.79. if you look at the range from the beginning of the year, the key level on 38% was 1.75. we are three basis points above it. if you do the same thing for the belly of the curve that mr. reader is referring to to the five years, that number was 1.55. we are 2.62, seven basis points. the curve continues to flatten because the street was long fives that they are now selling. open the chart up, you can see where at six and a half week high yields on the ten, and if you look at the currency markets, the euro/dollar seems to be the one people are paying attention to today, hovering at a 28-month high on the dollar. if you look at how many points the dax has shed, now overlay from february, the dax with the euro versus the dollar, you can see not only did they flip but they die verged. this is important. the higher the euro goes, the more talk you about hear about things like quant

bill smith, jason pride and our own rick santelli. and, kenny, does anybody want to be long this market going in? the big referendum on crimea possibly joining russia is on sunday, and washington says they will stand ready, whatever that means, should this referendum pass. what does that mean for the stock market? >> here is what i think. i think that's what's baked into the stock market. i think people expect crimea is going to go. i think they expect the u.s. and eu will stand up and impose sanctions. as long as russia doesn't move into ukraine, i actually think that the market is expecting that. you might see the market attempt to rally on monday as a result. >> jason, what do you think and how does it play into the decisions people are making? >> sure. this year we've been saying that investors need to be constructively positioned. that means hague a littving a l of overweight to equities. economics are relatively decent. you might be pushing higher generally. what we haven't been recommending is we've been telling investors be ca

larry mcdonald, adam and rick santelli. jack, what do you make of this market these days? kind of hanging in there. >> it is hanging in there. bill, you have to be really impressed with what's been happening, especially after the year we had last year. the real question is how many portfolio managers that were chasing returns at the end of last year will be doing exactly the same thing going into the end of the quarter. i think over the course of the next two weeks it will be a question that's answered. >> all the same, adam, we got to talk about what's happening in china right now. and the extent to which we've been talking about the losses in copper and iron ore and some of these areas. we've been talking about the credit growth in that economy and what happens as it starts to slow. of what should investors here be focused on, be worried about, if anything, when it comes to the developments there in china specifically. >> well, it's interesting because the chinese economic rebalance, which will take them from about a 45% to 50% investment-led economy to more consumption