why is gary hart way behind? i' m going to mention a name. michael bloomberg, if he decides to run, how does it realign the fight, especially if it' s trump and sanders? david: i will tell you in about a week because we are actually fielding a poll with usa today and that is the one valid question i insisted on testing which is bernie sanders, donald trump, and michael bloomberg as an independent. i want to know who he is drawing votes from and what the democratic -- demographic breakdown is. janet: bernie sanders says that if he runs it would hurt him more. record turnouts in iowa and new hampshire. to continue this trend, voters have to believe they have a voice. when do you see either party having an obvious frontrunner? do you think it will take the end of march? april? will it move into closer to the summer rather than quickly? david: looking at super tuesday, hits the road. if hillary clinton has not taken back the momentum, if she carries super tuesday, she has a good chance of doing that unless she falters in the next week or two in t

andrew jackson, rudy giuliani, and gary hart. 60 seconds on the clock. kate he blimed his wife's death on critics who attacked their marriage during his presidential campaign. >> jackson. >> correct. >> he declared an invitation to try out for the green bay packers because he intended to go into politics. >> hart. >> incorrect. kennedy. >> he graduated from the university of oxford. >> gary hart. >> correct. >> a man attempting to kill this man shot him twice -- >> jackson. >> correct. he attended a prep school at which he founded an opera club. >> kennedy. >> incorrect, rudy giuliani. >> he intended international law school at the the hague in the netherlands. >> hart. >> incorrect. kennedy. >> he served as the campaign manager for mcgovern's presidential run. >> hart. >> correct. >> he was a prisoner of war who had -- >> jackson. >> correct zblext authored a book for children about the political process that was narrated by his dog. >> rudy giuliani. >> incorrect. kennedy. barry goldwater said of this man, you can disagree with him -- >> kennedy. >> in

hart barack obama coalition. he did really well in blue-collar communities. he beat her convincingly this week. not at all, bernie won all of those communities. one of her best communities was hanover, a couple of miles from the vermont border. she lost that by 24 points. towns. we have to figure out this information. there are unexpected results that led to bernie with a whirlwind of momentum. josh: i' m not buying that necessarily. john: the establishment' s last best hope was that people wouldn' t show up and these great seeds that they questioned, trumpet bernie sanders, actually had ground game' s to bring people out. the establishment of both sides was embarrassed. on both sides that didn' t happen and people turned out for donald trump. obviously people turned out for bernie sanders. >> strength against all demographics. independence, trump one, young people trump one. the strength is surprising and still baffling. the same thing happened. >> trunk, talking about the run for president -- is there anything

my girlfriend said to me, that reminds me of gary hart. what's he all about? all of a sudden, it clicked. >> this is not polling, just a comment from a girlfriend. >> that's right. >> you probably liked her too much. >> no, no. i didn't actually. that triggered in my mind something that made some sense, we could put on the next poll. we put it on a poll, it tested well. >> so mondale used it in a debate. >> where's the beef? >> wendy's spent a hundred millions dollars on an ad campaign to give me an opening for a line. i want to thank them very much. >> that made a difference? >> it changed the race overnight. it confirmed in people's minds something that had been on their minds, which was is this guy really up to it? does he have the experience to do it? and hart, who had been on such an offensive all of a sudden has to be on the defensive, and he doesn't handle it very well. >> there were several things that hart didn't handle well, but that's another story. >> he was reeling. we came right back in with another punch, which was the red phone. >> the most awe

. >> some biggest surprises would include gary hart in 1984. defeating former vice president wall it moon dail. and for the new hampshire democratic primary. there. 2008. hillary clinton, come back versus barack obama after logs the iowa caucuses, new hampshire primary took place several days later. and lot of observe including myself thought barack obama had all of the momentum going into the new hampshire primary. but it was hillary clinton who emergeded win dmer that evening. and, extended the competition for months. >> leading up to new hampshire primary giving up close and personaling. >> we see the candidate sides. >> and, we see them stumble. >> outcome, tough to predict. >> john mcscan a good example in 2000, john mccain won the new hampshire republican primary against george bush. >> i remember bush saying that evening, so-call victory part that new hampshire was a bump in road and that's ebb exactly what turned out to be that year. bush went on to win south carolina. and win the nomination. this year, as always, it is any one's get. >

. >> no gary hart's campaign slogan. [ laughter ] [ applause ] >> this one i wouldn't have known, plop plop fizz fizz. >> alka-seltzer. >> no a recruiting slogan for the libyan air force. [ applause ] >> so good you'll want a second cup. >> that's yuban coffee. >> no, not originally. in that was the cross your heart bra originally had that. [ laughter ] >> how about no more tears. >> johnson's baby shampoo. >> no, that's the new jim and tammy show. [ laughter ] [ applause ] >> they are back on. did you know they are back on? >> yeah. >> they are back on broadcasting from some friend's house. how about cleans like a white tornado. >> ajax cleaners. >> metamucil. [ laughter ] >> we're everywhere you want to be. >> eastern airlines. >> close. [ laughter ] >> oh. >> why fool around with anyone else? now think of that. that's rather new. >> that's -- wait a minute now. federal express. >> no the jimmy swagart ministries. [ laughter ] >> what was that, fred? >> i think ed is stupid, he hasn't gotten one of them right. [ laughter ] >> here is one, takes the worry out of being close. >> ban de

he was a 1984 in part because he got beat up by gary hart in new hampshire. clinton, dogs by accusations of womanizing, of using drugs, of dodging the draft. but, he runs in new hampshire, he does not win, loses by 33%-20 4% to a senator from massachusetts. he famously claims that he did a hold up better than anyone anticipated, calls himself the comeback kid, and goes on from there to win. so, he is able to take advantage of his expectations. the other important thing about 1996 is this the first time that a candidate gets elected president without winning new hampshire's primary. in the modern primary cycle. always first, always right. after 1996.he armor side, patublican buchanan. pat buchanan ran in 1992 against george bush and lost in new hampshire, bush one. but he wounded bush and arguably caused him not to be reelected in 1992. he comes back in 1996 running against bob dole. bob dole is not the best liked guy. and all the times that his run for president. but, pat buchanan be bob dole by 1%. bob dole.wounded the campaign plays out all the way to the c

up next, the marco rubio as gary hart scenario. hart trailed mondale badly in new hampshire in democratic polling but gary hart, despite crushed in iowa, still exceeded, quote, expectations. and he became the big national story line. sound familiar, senator rubio? it worked. hart went on to a big victory in new hampshire the following week and became the chief competitor to mondale for the rest of the season. that's what rubio hopes to be. finally, donald trump. he wants to be the george h.w. bush in history. look at the 1988 republican race. bush was ahead in the new hampshire poll, he was up over bob dole by ten point but was like trump on monday, bush had a disappointing showing in iowa. he finished third to dole. a lot of bush campaign hand wringing with bush slipping in the polls. what happened in new hampshire? he hung on in the end, quite nicely. he won new hampshire en route to winning the entire republican nomination and of course, the presidency itself. three front-runners have some version of history on their side. which

gary hart made up 20 odd points on walter mondale in a week. do you think hillary clinton can make up a 30 point deficit in six days? >> i think hillary clinton is working very hard. she's going all over new hampshire and only the voters will know on election day if she can make that up. but the important thing is people are excited about hillary. i talked to my husband who was at two events earlier today. he's headed to the derry town hall. he said people were at the door. they couldn't get in. they didn't have enough room to accommodate them. i was in nashua, the second largest city on monday, visiting with people who were there to go door to door to be on the phones. we had a crowd of 60 people in nashua ready to go out and work for hillary because they were excited. and i think that's one of the things that people are missing in this campaign, that people are excited about hillary clinton. that's why she won in iowa. bernie sanders got every vote he was talking about and yet he still couldn't win in iowa. >> all right. well, we'll be watchi

listen, that's nothing on 1984, gary hart lost iowa by 33 points to walter mondale and they said gary hart had basically won iowa and he rolled into new hampshire and pulled off one of the great upsets in new hampshire primary history. i guess rubio is hoping that history can repeat itself. katy tur, thank you for that. the republican with all the momentum is marco rubio. he surged to second place in the latest nbc news new hampshire poll. as tonight's debate nears, voters will see if rubio can handle his first night in the hot seat. gabe gutierrez is in manchester outside the debate hall. we've been seeing him for this flashout but here he is again. gabe, from the rubio standpoint, this is a new place that he's in, a new position that he's in. he's going to get a lot more scrutiny than i think he's used to in these debates. >> yeah, that's right, steve. the rubio campaign keeps using the phrase marcomentum over and over and over again. yes, i've been standing here the last few minutes listening to katy tur talk about the expectations game. >> i didn't realize you were there. >> the e

there is a little senator from colorado named gary hart who decides to run against him. he does second place in iowa. he claims he did much better than anticipated, so he comes to new hampshire where he had been campaigning and he thought he had a more favorable electorate and he wins new hampshire primary by 37%-28%. this really weakens walter mondale. the primary played out, mondale had to fight against the money from his own party for a long time. it gave the reagan campaign more ammunition. it is already better to take ammunition when someone in your party is shooting at you then somebody outside the party. it is more believable that way. mondale loses in in part because 1984, he got beat up by gary hart in new hampshire. 1992, bill clinton is dogged by accusations of womanizing, of using drugs, of dodging the draft. but, he runs in new hampshire, he does not win, loses by 33%-24% to a senator from massachusetts. he famously claims that he did a whole lot better than anyone anticipated calls himself the , comeback kid, and goes on from there to win. so, he is able to

look what it did to gary hart. look what it did to john mccain. it has an impact. >> it does in part because it is first. and everyone takes it seriously here. it's small, it's manageable, we pour in here. so it is, as i said, it's manageable. people can kind of get a fix on it. as i think the rest of the country looks at these voters in new hampshire, they're civic-minded people. >> they'll have 70% turnout. we can criticize iowa all we want. the best criticism is, not everybody's participating. you can't make that criticism here. >> even in the snowstorm. they're going to have 60% to 70% turnout and it's going to be legit. >> it's not just finishes one-two tomorrow, it's who doesn't win well tom. that's the story, from the bottom up, who is going to have to go to the sidelines and say, i'm going to suspend my campaign. that's going to be critically important in new hampshire. >> hey, i keep coming back, i have a feeling maybe -- let's say the polls are right. it's 7:00 p.m., we may say bernie sanders and donald trump won the primary. >> donald t

hart, mondale won iowa but hart was the surprise second-place finisher and in eight days gary hart went from 30 points plus down in new hampshire to a 12-point win and then he was off and running, he almost caught mondale for the entire nomination. so i look at rubio right now, we see him down 13 points in the new poll today but he got a little bit of the momentum coming out of iowa. the big mo george bush, sr., used to call it. let's see if he can replicate gary hart. >> steve kornacki, jon meacham, thank you very much. >> and in four minutes we're going to have the latest tracking poll so we can see the day by day by day tracking to see how quickly rubio is on the rise in yesterday and if trump is bleeding. >>> still ahead on "morning joe," the presidential candidates taking a lot of ground in new hampshire. jeb bush and governor john kasich both join us. >>> up next, republican strategist steve schmidt on the new polling out of new hampshire. >>> and nbc news political director chuck todd who will take us inside the heated democratic debate that he co-moderated between hillary clinto

i mean, walter mondale back in 1984 beat gary hart by about 35 points, and coming out of there you'd have thought hart had won because, look, the media does want a race. and they'd love to have a, say, trump/rubio race. and maybe they'll get one. lou: yeah. i think they've got a trump/rubio/cruz race, and maybe more will be in the party coming out of new hampshire. that would be a delight for all of us. >> i doubt it. lou: well, that's why you're here. [laughter] who's going to come out of there the winner? >> well, bernie sanders on the democratic side, for sure. lou: all right. and on the republican? >> well, i think trump will win, rubio second and maybe little old john kasich third. he's spent a lot of time there. lou: all right. there we got it, and i hope we're saluting your prognostication powers next week. sarah, your thoughts? who wins on the republican side and the democrat? >> i agree donald trump, he's going to pull it out. i don't think by as big a margin as everyone is predicting though, and bernie sanders, i think, is definitely going to win new hampshire. lou: all rig

gary hart still exceeded, quote, expectations, and became the big national story line. well, it worked. hart went onto a big victory in new hampshire the following week and became the chief competitor to mondale for the rest of the season. finally, we have donald trump chlts he . he wants to be the george h.w. bush in history. 1988 bush was ahead up over bop bob dole by ten points. like bush on monday he had a disappointing showing in iowa. dole. there was a lot of bush campaign hand wringing with bush slipping in the poll. what happened in new hampshire? he hung on in the end quite nicely. he won new hampshire and onto winning the entire republican nomination and of course the presidency itself. so three front-runners each have some version of history on their side, but which version will play out tuesday night? who knows at this point. i smell a jumble coming. anyway, coming up, with larry david hosting and bernie sanders running, how could "saturday night live" resist? >> enough is enough. we need to unite and work together if we're all going to get through this. >>

gary hart still exceeded, quote, expectations, and became the big national story line. sound familiar, senator rubio? well, it worked. hart went onto a big victory in new hampshire the following week and became the chief competitor season. finally, we have donald trump chlts he. he wants to be the george h.w. bush in history. 1988 bush was ahead up over bop bob dole by ten points. like bush on monday he had a disappointing showing in iowa. he actually finished third to dole. there was a lot of bush campaign hand wringing with bush slipping in the poll. what happened in new hampshire? he hung on in the end quite nicely. he won new hampshire and onto winning the entire republican nomination and of course the get through this. that is cyber-crime and it affects each and every one of us. microsoft created the digital crimes unit to fight cyber-crime. we use the microsoft cloud to visualize information so we can track down the criminals. when it comes to the cloud, trust and security are paramount. we're building what we learn back into the cloud to make people and organizat

. >> some of the biggest surprises would include gary hart in 1984, defeating former vice-president new hampshire democratic primary >> reporter: its surprises don't trend this. >> 2008, hillary clinton comeback versus barack obama after losing the iowa caucuses, the new hampshire primary took place several days later and a lot of observers including myself thought barack obama had all the momentum going into the new hampshire primary, but it was hillary clinton who emerged the winner that evening, and extended the competition for months. >> reporter: with every candidate at dinners, buses, town hall meetings leading up to the new hampshire primary getting upclose and personal. we see the candidates shy. >> would you turn that microphone on for me? i am paying for this microphone. >> reporter: and we see them stumble. the outcome, tough to predict. >> john mccain is a good example in 2000, john mccain won the new hampshire republican as i remember bush saying that evening at his so called victory party, which turned out to be a losing party, that new hampshire was a bump in the road, an

it happened with gary hart, a corrective against walter mondale. it happened with pat buchanan. john mccain with george w. bush. >> it does happen. but how far up in new hampshire is trump already is. it's hard to tell people in a primary, where the shape of the electorate is not as important in a caucus, mobilization is not as important, turnout's not as important. to have that giant reversal, you have to have a whole bunch of people who all like trump to pick one other person. last i checked, ted cruz was in second place in new hampshire. all of these so-called establishment candidates, they're all basically tied for third and they're all getting high single digits, low double digits. that is not a mass movement. >> that's true. but there is a precedence for a huge swing in iowa. i think bush came out of iowa with a slight lead. >> right. >> there's precedent for over 20, you know, coming quickly. >> both political parties, there's part of me that wonders, are they facing a near-death experience tonight. two victories tonight. that is a way to just -- one is not a registered m