without a u.k. that is guiding the european union in a positive direction together with angela merkel, an e.u. dealing with multiple particular exit $after a brexit is not going to be a good partner for the u.s. >>> is this going to take on defense as well as parade? are there real security repercussions? >> we're talking about very integrated defense industries and, of course, again the u.k. will have to renegotiate its relationship with the e.u. if it decides to exit. right now switzerland has over 120 bilateral agreements with the european union. the u.k. will have no negotiate at least that many >>> i want to thank you, my guests. that's the inside story. join us for a look at how japan has recovered five years after the earthquake tsuna mi and the destruction of the power plant in fukushima. i'm ray suarez. that's the goodnight. >>> >>> rescue off the coast of greece where thousands of refugees are stranded after borders are closed. this is what many are running from, violence continues on the

the u.k. is left to make it up as it goes along. probably greater for the u.k. from an economic point of view, and quite challenging for europe on the political front. currency look at the market and look at euro-sterling, it does look like the book is priced into the sterling. ewen: we have had a decline over the last six months. with the opinion polls saying the outcome is going to be a of ato remain, the chances surprise would be to the downside. guy: how much of the regulatory impact do we understand? someone told me the other day the eu negotiates for the whole of the eu but on a country by country basis, the deals on global trade are something the eu could walk away with. ewen: i don't agree with that. umbrellae deals are deals. the other thing is, it is not just about the trade deals. it is about the regulatory barriers beyond the border. imagine a situation where capital markets union presses forward in an eu that does not have the u.k. in it. it would have a material effect on financial services. guy: let's talk more about that. what would be the impact

given the u.k. is such a big market, what would be the point of introducing a friction into that relationship? it is not make any sense economically unless you're willing to say we will punish our manufacturers and consumers something as abstract to be members of the european union. this whole involvement in trying to threaten the british public or what is perceived as threats by the british public is not received well. we would ship tears of britain left, they said. we were told it would be unknown consequences if we left. we were told we would be ruthlessly targeted economically. we went from being best friends to protection within several days. if we do not pay a certain amount every year, bad things would happen to us. i am not sure it is a great thing to be in an organization of promises you a punishing beating unless you give them money. same thing from the u.s. perspective trying to tell the british people that they have to do something when it is their own national free will that is being te

looking at how the u.k. first phase the eu -- for sees the eu -- francine: you think i have kids, i have family, i need to make sure i can pay my sovereignties. david: exactly. it all comes down to economics. if you think you can do better outside the eu, you can leave. francine: you really think there is a 30% chance, a 40% chance of the u.k. leaving? david: it is such an emotional subject, and nobody knows for sure. all we know is it will be very messy for least two years. over the ten-year, the u.k. will do ok, so that is the rise i'm looking out for, for my family. -- at thenderstand end of the day, i think people will vote to stay. francine: so we have four months of uncertainty, four months of the sacrament is fight within the cabinet. doesn't mean that productivity will fall -- does it mean that productivity will fall? probably see low growth in the second quarter. going into the brexit itself, most senior people will put it on hold. institutions,jor you have to deal with contingents. francine: what i

and the u.k. so as british voters go on the 23rd and drop their ballots in the box, we would like them to be able to consider what their cousins across the ocean have to say. we are not planning on telling people how to vote. my question for you is can you give me examples of how it would be in the best interest of the united states of america for the u.k. to leave the eu? thanks very much. heather: i think we will let you have at it. dr. fox: first of all, there is an emotional attachment to the commonwealth in the u.k., but our external relations will have to be based on our national interests. that will be economics and trade driven. we will want to be able to exploit markets as best we can. we want to free ourselves from as much european regulation as possible to give ourselves the maximum freedom to operate in a global market with huge opportunities. if you look at britain's trading performance at the countries where our trade is growing, the countries you see, obviously china and india, as w

francine: what of the u.k.? what does the u.k. look like june 24, if the u.k. decides to leave the eu? -- do thels clash guild's clash? carsten: financial markets will look different on the 24th of june. goes will look the same this would only be the start of a lot of negotiation between the u.k. and eu. on,rt: the world will move there will be bilateral trade agreements put in place. europe worked well when it was fragmented before the eu pulled editing together. there could be some short-term dislocation. if we get to the point where there is a brexit, they will price into the market before the 24th -- before the 23rd. francine: i wonder if it is the shock or whether it is the polls that let people down. do you even think the london as a financial center can exist? actually as an investor you would not be buying into the they have to-- draw every single contract again. at one point, it seems as though frankfurt would be the financial center of europe, going back to 2000 and 2001. for whatever reason, london attracted all of the investment and became the prima

when i look at the u.k., how easy is it to tease apart u.k. specific assets from the global the fact that these assets are domiciled in london. and the index0 are not linked to the u.k. economy. it is very positive and telling. in december, our u.k. equities and our european allocation. theind a lot of value in u.k. equity market which is trading at very low price to book, 1.6. very low compared to average and high in terms of dividend yields. the second thing is that you have a lot of commodities. the differentre entities across the world, the ftse 100 is one of the most exposed to commodities with 19% of the index exposed to oil and gas. reasons, theese coalition between the u.k. economy and the ftse 100 is not so clear. we are more positive on the u.k. stocks. saying, youu were need to be looking for stocks. if i am looking for long sure strategy, i am looking or socks that are sensitive and insensitive to what sterling is doing. favor the exporters and particularly -- is putting pressure on the euro. go for some industry. this is the strat

u.k. holds a referendum on whether to leave the european union. conservative mp liam fox on his support for leaving the eu. it is an hour. >> good morning, everyone at welcome to the center for strategic and international studies. i am vice president here, and i have the great privilege of directing our europe program. what a delight to welcome honorable dr. liam fox here today to discuss a very important upcoming referendum and the united kingdom, about its continued membership in a reformed eu, loaded words, as i am sure dr. fox will help us more clearly understand. dr. fox was elected to parliament in 1992. he has served in a number of distinguished leadership positions, including cochairman of the conservative party in 2003. perhaps we know dr. fox best here in washington when he served as secretary for defense from 2010 to 2011. dr. fox is a doctor, and he is in the house to help us understand british politics, the implication of a potential brexit. one word before i invite you forwar

the u.k. chancellor will tell the bcc that those who want britain to leave have not been able to offer the most -- answer aboutst basic questions how businesses would maintain access to a single market and the jobs and benefits it brings. ryan chilcote is at the conference. where does the business community stand? a nutshell,ow, in the business community is divided. if you look at the survey the british chambers of commerce - aelf did a monthly go - month ago, 60% favor staying within, 10% don't know, 30% against. as the director said all the business groups in britain only represent 25% of businesses here. small businesses make up a huge part of the business community. they are underrepresented. many of them do not think britain should remain within the european union. actuallytimation, it's pretty close to 50-50 within the business community. really torn. one example of that is we're going to have the business secretary speaking in a while. he's going to make the opening remarks well ahead o

we are approaching the june 23 referendum in the u.k.. -- in the u.k. josh would increase those bearish bets. it might increase the risk of a brexit. i want to talk to you about the risk of -- the volatility as well. look at three-month volatility it we will get into that referendum in less than three months time. seeing this big spike here in the wake of those brussels attacks. francine: nejra cehic with some of the volatility we saw linked to those brexit concerns. the best and worst movers in the last three months. let's ring in derek halpenny. derek, when you look at quarter one. it was ugly for europe. the biggest market move, volatility is more present on currency markets could is it that -- markets here it is that right? -- markets. is that right? derek: the low and turning points were only 11% for february. it was risk off. yellen'sthe day after testimony to congress. the first indication that the march rate hike might not happen. she did not telegraph it. the markets went back into risk on. we have seen the reversal in sentiment. it is been bor

. >>> and u.k. prime minister david cameron chairs a crisis meeting after tata's deal puts its british business up for sale. but the government says nationalization is not the answer. >>> good morning. the last trading day for march. the last day of the quarter. what a quarter it has been. volatile to say the least, although we have seen some renewed risk appetite for the month of march. this is the picture today. we have the stoxx europe 600 ending the quarter as it began, in the red. the index off by about 1.2%. we've seen that post-federally fade despite the gains we saw on wall street overnight. concerns again turning to the commodities picture. here's the trading view on the markets one by one. the ftse 100 off just about 0.8%. we've seen paring back in basic resources firms in the main u.k. market. the xetra dax off by a similar amount. the french cac 40 off by 1.4%. clearly the underperformer here the italian banks. we want to give you a better picture of how european markets have fared on th

both the u.k. and france fear [indiscernible] so, this project is partly to be able to maintain that capability within your -- europe. catherine n.: we are told that this is going to be 2 billion euros, but it will only be operational 14 years from now. that's an awful lot of money to spend on one weapon that won't be in use until 2030. isn't there some scope for this to be shot down, if you will excuse the pun? >> it is certainly a lot of money up front. on the other hand, i would caution that any military aircraft program, your looking at -- you are looking at [indiscernible] and probably longer. longer than a decade from signing agreements [indiscernible] dominatert market [indiscernible] the timescale itself isn't necessarily outside of the norm, given that it will require a and given that it will be flown unmanned and potentially very autonomously. there may be someone telling the aircraft what to do before a mission, then it goes up by itself. catherine n.: we will have to wait and see. londo

germany and the u.k. have been traditionally aligned as more free market forces and europe he comes more southern european if the u.k. chooses to exit. veer into the political sphere and i think draghi is going to be quite cautious about commenting on that particular, -- topic. francine: you believe he cannot do much for the economy. can he put a blanket of safety over europe if they brexit happens? capablecentral bank is of dealing with liquidity consequences. credit to the ecb, this is what they did in 2008, 2009 with other central banks so he can fight fires when fires come up. the problem we have with the idea of a u.k. exit, nobody knows what it looks like and this is one of the big issues. negotiation,rs of politics, and talking, how depressing is that? not as much as reading your research because it is intimidating how outfront you are on the debate. one of the things mario draghi has to look at is capital flows and you wrote a piece on the war for capital. it is becoming parochial, not global. cen

the u.k. domiciles and the u.k.. can you think of many international bankers specifically somebody who is a member of an international tank like cool goldman, deutsche bank, and a number of banks which agrees with the fact that you would be better off outside of europe? >> i can certainly say that there have been plenty of people i've spoken to from this type of institution it was felt to get back to where we began this conversation the boundless argument is much more equivocal than is commonly believed. london has the right language. >> bed does not concur with what i find. i have to say i am getting a different message. >> perhaps that's true but respectfully i will direct you back to what some of them were saying at the time of the euro debate. goldman sachs is very clear who that would be a terrible mistake for britain not to go in. we have the same from the cpi from lord mandelson and all sorts of people and from colleagues of ours. i had back in 1991 and interesting -- suggesting a singl

u.k. chancellor george osborne is set to speak at the british chamber of commerce conference. we are there, live. manus: china's ruling party elites prepared to discuss the latest five-year plan, fresh pmi show economic slowdown. crash oneg in a car day after the charge with rigging bids for oil and gas leases. ♪ manus: welcome to countdown. anna: very warm welcome everybody. 6:00 in the morning here in london. let us talk about the markets, once again, the equity market. we are seeing a trend in asian session, money going into emerging markets and foreign exchange. the biggest three-day rally in asian stocks pacific since august. manus: we have the msci world, and we drew a comparison from that moment -- mid february. a .38% three number of different things going into this, which are the beige book coming out. the job numbers were not bad. inple were batting off this china, because you would get more stimulus. if you look behind the hood here, as in p trimmed losses. and canada, go cana

manus: coming up, the u.k. treasury committee questions boris johnson. ♪ security forces hunt the perpetrators of the brussels terrorist attack. 31 people dead and more than 230 injured. on easy markets, ages stocks slump following u.s. weakness. boris johnson, talks brexit. etc. the cost savings plan. they will lose an additional amount of jobs. hillary clinton and donald trump both take arizona the democratic and republican primaries, but there are victories for ted cruz, and bernie sanders elsewhere. ♪ manus: you are welcome to "countdown." you'ret is 8:00 if watching in brussels. the development in brussels so very much front and center for us here in europe. with that in mind, european equity markets made up for all of those losses during the session. what does today have in store? at 81% come yesterday that was that a vicious reaction in the travel, we're seeing that. the destruction of valley very quickly, limited in the emerging market stocks. have learnedts from previous episodes that macroeconomic

and u.k. have begun negotiations that would allow the british government to subpoena american companies for data relevant to investigations there. even if the individuals involved are not american or that the crime happened on u.s. soil. so how would the u.s. benefit from that? >> american companies do business all over the world as they should. they're in a situation where there are vulnerabilities there. we're talking to the u.k. and we are. this is a case where, this case would be a situation where the u.k. was investigating a crime in the u.k. involving its own citizens, but because electronic evidence is such a part of every case, whether it's here or overseas, the data if an american company was involved, would be stored here. what we're talking to the u.k. about, is trying to find a way to come up with a solution to help u.s. companies comply with the british order, right now, american law says they cannot send that data overseas. because they operate in the u.k., they're subject to u.k

u.k. time, we have the final reading of the italian fourth quarter gdp and then it is over to the u.s.. everyone is waiting for those payrolls. >> at the same time we have u.s. trade balance figures. up next, china balancing growth and reform soon as another key tasks. talk about that when we return. we will be live in beijing. anybody going up to anna: welcome back, this is countdown. goldman sachs and bank of america are planning job cuts to rein in returns. it will rain in more than 5%. meanwhile, bank of america will dismiss about 150 trading investment banking employees next week according to people familiar with the decision. samsonite, the world's largest branded luxury maker has agreed to buy cumene. it's the biggest ever acquisition. they plan to retain the design team to ensure that the quality .f the design remains intact with the various segments. below is an want to have to win. china's richest man is pretty the largest cinema chain. movie theaterest chains. -- deal combines a

the u.k. chancellor george osborne has set the stage for a number of budget cuts in the face of what he calls great economic uncertainty. speaking on sunday, he said that the government must be proactive and prepare the u.k. economy for future shocks. budget isage in this that the world is a more on certain plays than any time since the financial crisis, and we need to act now so we don't pay later. that is why i need to find additional savings by the end of the decade, because we have it within our means to get back here and that is how we make britain fit for the future. anna: also speaking, the shadow chancellor john mcdonald. he said there needs to be more money invested by the government instead of pursuing austerity. we don't have that sound, unfortunately, but we will bring it to you later. let's bring in the founder of capital economics, who joins us on set to talk about the looming budget. then we will talk about brexit. first, let's deal with the budget. todayid in an article that yo

is this similar to the situation in the u.k.? david: absolutely. u.k."the "leave the campaign was defeated, it was used as a foundation to build the party and presented as almost as a victory. willnk the brexit vote very much want to continue to withthe issue around -- cameron scheduled to step down before 2020, the conservative activist base would elect the next leader of the conservative party. they will choose somebody almost certainly. hans: does it get bloodier i the june 24 election in the conservative party? am i going to have to cancel my seats in wimbledon? david: i think it could be a little bit more delayed than that. it might take a little bit of time to wind down. or no, it is a yes, there will be a lot of movement one way or the other. guy: but if we look at the u.k., they have a huge deficit. it needs this kind of political instability to not be a permanent feature. is what you're are saying, it is going to be a political feature? david: i think the best case scenario at the moment for the post-referendum world with regards to the u.k. and

the conditions strengthen in the u.k. overall, but we expect house price growth to pick up in the rest of the u.k.. that is not going to be true to the same extent in london because affordability is so much more constrained. even the labor market conditions will continue to improve, you can't get enough people that are able to buy into the market to get the rate of house price growth be maintained. i think we would expect to see house price growth outside of london southeast staying where it is, or picking up in london. guy: can i ask you about the bank of england and mark carney? he says the property market place is one of the biggest threats to the economy. he says it has the potential -- if everyone decides to go for the exit at the same time, there are significant risks there. would you echo some of those risks? has been very clear that it does not see a problem at this point, but it is considering what tools it might need should the needs arise. i think that is the correct approach to take. you look at the market ove

nonfarm payrolls are out at 1:30 u.k. time. -- will it take brazil rallied more than 5% overnight entering bull market territory. we'll discuss what that rally means and whether it can last. in china's political elite gather in beijing to approve the latest plan. how will they deal with the latest currency volatility? hans, good morning. two stories, one is china and one is the payroll data. it depends what you think is more important. china has way, signaled what they want. they want more currency stability. if we get a big impressive number today we could see more fed hikes in twice 16 than previously expected which brings us closer to dollar-euro parity. which means in my case with more relatives visiting. we will not even talk but how rich i would feel when i come visit you and stay with the johnsons. >> it depends whether it is post or pre-brexit. i think that trade will work for you. that's where the money will be made. >> 30 minutes until the european open. but cyclic it where the terminal is because what we can se

facebook does not break out its u.k. sales in its u.k. subsidiary or where it was booking them before, ireland. we don't know with the level of sales they have to the u.k. advertisers is. it will be interesting when they file their accounts for next year. for the first time, they will tell us how much advertising them sold to these customers in the u.k. we will get a better sense of is the amount of tax they are paying fair. they told us they will be paying millions more in tax. compared to 4000 pounds, that is a mark: big deal. how does the double irish tax structure work? andmy: google, facebook, other tech structures book most of their international revenue through an irish subsidiary. that irish subsidiary pays royalties for intellectual property for another irish of city very that is located in the cayman islands. facebook has several of these located in the caymans and bermuda. google puts it on bermuda. that is where there is no corporate tax. they do this to avoid most of the corporate tax. in island it is low, 12.5%. in the u.k.,

number one, barclays u.k., which will be our u.k. credit card business and small business activities. it will be solid financially and well-capitalized, very profitable. then we have barclays corporate and international. we will focus on our investment bank, our corporate business in the u.k. and around the world, and our credit card business in europe and the u.s. also have solid investment-grade ratings and be very well-capitalized. those are the two divisions that will make up barclays going forward. it is a very complicated operational process. we will take our time and do it in a methodical fashion so that we deliver a barclays u.k. and barclays corporate international in a couple of years from now that everyone will be very comfortable with. the other discussion in the marketplace, i am sure you have read these comments as well, is capital relative to .our peers my question to you is, is there any merit or have you thought about forgoing the dividend to bolster the capital story. have you considered that? did you look at that?

and instead would book u.k. sales in great britain. this comes after the social begin giant was criticized for u.k. tax bills that were less than my own. a tax bill that was less than any other average worker in the u.s. -- in the u.k. would tend to pay. they are paying the equivalent of $6,000. the tax situation has been a growing theme. with google agreeing to pay $184 million in back taxes. although it is mainly served to stir up more controversy. as yet, it is unknown the exact amount facebook would have to boost its payments within the next tax year. smaller business sales without staff intervention, that would continue to be rooted. the immediate reaction is positive as it seeks to introduce new rules for what it seeks to be aggressive tax planning. other companies that have previously been in the microscope are starbucks, amazon. back to you. emily: bloomberg's carolyn hyde in london. how google engineers are working with unicef to map out where the zika virus may hit next. this newly developed mapping technology later in the sh

neil: i'm not so bearish the u.k. will fall apart. there will be much more investment into the u.k. after -- it could develop safe haven spaces. i'm very much contrary into the majority of analysts. ofcontrarian the majority analysts. the economy can make decision s under its own guidance, that could be an attractive haven for a currency rather than the selloff. vonnie: there's money to be made in currency markets. what is your favorite? high sterling against the japanese yen. a structural play that started the year. we are risk on for the moment. we are in that frame of mind, that mentality. prices are moving higher. commodity prices are moving higher. one needs to be flexible in the risk on risk off play. for the moment, we are going that direction. the world is not position for higher risk. the market is short sterling and is cutting back. the yen is cutting back. we get currencies that respond well to hire asset prices, such as the pound will outperform the funding currencies such as the end. -- the yen. let it run its course and next week and beyond. the ecb does move into deep

the latest budget for the u.k.. the country -- lowering the this yearorecast for and warning that economic union will the wood even more. -- lower it even more. alix: two hours away from the fed announcement on interest rates. it would be a major surprise if rates go up, but will the fed lay the groundwork or action in the months ahead? mepresident obama nominated rrick garland to serve on the supreme court. we will tell you who he is. well into the trading day in the u.s. going to the markets desk were julie hyman has the latest. julie: we are not seeing much market action. people are waiting to see what that officials are going to say, what janet yellen will say. even if no interest rate change is expected, the commentary could be key in terms of market direction. if you take a look at groups on the move or not moving, the biggest moves we see today is the decline of nearly half a percent in the utilities. even within the groups on the move, you are not seeing much direction. seeing a pretty even split between gai

those numbers from the u.k. are strong today. >> back to your asia point, you are seeing extraordinary growth there. the ceo i noted on squawk earlier was talking about how you have to recall they're doing business primarily with middle class consumers in asia, that there are still people who have money who are coming on board and using prudential. he described it like a risk-off trade. do you think it's a risk-off trade for the longer term? >> i think in longer term, the opportunity in asia is huge. we have to remember it's fundamentally different to the west. there's various reasons for that. of course, the economies in asia are set to grow faster than they have in the west. the penetration of insurance products is simply lower. also, you've got to remember customers over there have -- consumers have a gap. it's a social security net that doesn't exist in asia. prudential with its health and protection products can fill that gap for consumers. although there's been some headwinds with the currency and whatnot,

you look at the u.k. stock market and you think, if there were to be a boat to leave the eu, that could be quite damaging, and that you think about -- well actually, a lot of about 70% come from other companies, so would it be that damaging? it is a fine line we are trying to tread. vonnie: there is a difference here between small business, media business and then big, large business conglomerates. small businesses may not be as enthusiastic as some of the larger businesses. >> i'm not sure i caught that question. the more domestic country -- companies, the ones that trade with europe. >> if you look at what smaller businesses are saying, it is by no means unanimous. some think it will be damaging, there are others who think it will be fairly neutral. i don't think you can make a statement and say it is going to be positive or negative. for each i think company, you need to think about it on a case-by-case basis. i might look to this in some detail, almost every argument that you hear for staying in or fo

brexit is a real concern for the u.k. economy and it has the potential and uncertainty it causes that is challenging. it puts a big clown -- big cloud over the bank of england forecasts. maker tod as a policy forecast a year or two in advance when you have such an uncertain brexit referendum in june looming. i think will be difficult for the bank of england to come down on one side or another. alix: and the market, alexander, is really reflecting that. take a look at the work function in bloomberg for the u.k. it is truly an believable what we have seen. a 6% chance of a rate hate -- rate hike at the end of 2016. it is so dovish, the market, very pessimistic. do you think the pessimism is justified? alexander: i think that's what it -- that sort of pessimism could disappear if the u.k. electorate votes tuesday. my now the market has pushed out the opportunity or potential for our u.k. bank of england rate hike until the middle of next year. if you vote to stake him a lot of the political clout lifts, and that could give t

our main business, the u.k. life business, we have one in fourpensions in the u.k. -- one in four pensions in the u.k. we have a target of 225 million in savings. we are three quarters of the way there. we've also said we are going to take out an extra billion from that over the next three years, over and above what we would normally do. that deal has been everything we would hope it could be and more. anna: on the subject of brexit, which is very topical, your chairman was one who signed the letter in support of staying in the eu. explain your enthusiasm for staying in. is it to do with market volatility, or is it to do with strategy and business opportunity? think -- i think the chairman made our position clear. what we have said is that we think the u.k. is better in the -- we think the eu was better with the u.k. anna: ok. and we sit here today -- i know you are in london and i'm in london -- the ecb meets today. mark any message for mario draghi -- do you want to see an end to the negative interest rate pol

the u.k. bid. patrik: i think excluding the u.k. bid is quite crucial. the european and dax at the moment, it is very hard to determine an opinion because the conflict between the u.k. and continental europe are so different. the u.k. is heavy in everything and i'm pretty sure we are looking for earnings to fall again this year, whereas the closer you get to the core eurozone, earnings are not looking too bad. we suspect there is some upside risk to what analysts have at the moment. it is not a fantastic absolute outlook but for what it is worth, analysts look pessimistic. ,f you look on a global level earnings expectations are the lowest they have been in decades. mark: the ftse is one of the better performing european bosses. yes, it is down but it is pretty much flat on the year. the rebound has been led by those mining and energy stocks. does that tell us that you do not think this rebound in those sectors has legs? patrik: to be honest, we are fairly lukewarm on the outlook for commodity

we are going to discuss the u.k.'s european decision -- the brexit next. >> what would germany do if the u.k. voted to leave the e.u.? would cry. [laughter] [applause] guy: would jim rogers actually cry about this? that is the question we need to debate. we will do that in a moment. ♪ there will be consequences if the united kingdom leaves the european union. there will be constitutions a and lots ofequences fields. on the common market, in the financial centers, for the economic development between our countries. i am not suggesting it is all going to collapse. i do not want to be catastrophic that there will be consequences. guy: "there will be consequences." the french president speaking yesterday with a bilateral meeting with david cameron. let's gets to consequences and ideas about brexit. good, bad. jim rogers still with us. if you had to vote, would you leave or stay? jim: for great britain, i would vote to stay definitely. to trade with europe without being in the common market is not going to be good or hel

happeningt what is with the u.k. and that is getting a lot of focus as we get closer to the actual date. my concern there is certainly to fuel thishelps right-wing nationalistic movement, given that we do have that migrant crisis going on in europe, and certainly a situation for the last two years or so. andoes undermine the euro the eurozone project, but i think right now markets have a very short attention span. what is ahead of us is brexit, and i think that still topical and certainly does suggest that we could see some ripple effects into the euro more generally. take onve seen the euro a safety trade with the yen versus the dollar. we did not see that reaction today. >> that's a good point. when you think about that? what is the safe haven currency here? , a scenario euro where you have terrorist attacks and the threat of more? , thereegards to the yen are domestic idiosyncrasies in japan that favor it as a currency that is a safe haven. i would throw the swiss into that scenario as well, but in the coming quar

the u.s., u.k., there is a status quo of extremely accommodative monetary policy. the move decisively in one -- ction francine: because it is an experiment? i am not trying to blame center bankers. they are experimenting -- blame essential bankers, but they are -- blame central bankers, but they are experimenting. simon: the kind of metrics you could's consistently work with and forecasting models. this is the case for investors, central bankers and this is why there remains a sentiment on global risk markets, because they cannot understand is a different this time? it looks different when you look at nominal measures. francine: simon french. up next, the starwood bid battle. we will bring you the details next. ♪ francine: let's get to bloomberg's first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: a hijacker who claims he was wearing explosive belts flight to- and egypt land in cyprus. the passengers and crew have been released. -- the u.s. has dropped its privacy case against apple after successfully hacking into the iphone used by one of the san bernardino terrorists. th

sectore u.k. energy seems to be in a colossal mess right now. the fresh are having problems with the nuclear industry. the germans are having problems with pretty much everything. what is this down to? is this the u.k. government? is this problems with the way the market is set up? what is going on? >> the bottom line is, we need a lot of investment to meet our carbon targets. it is tough to get people to pay. , whichcific issue of eds politically, they want for different reasons. financially, it makes less and less sense. it is hard to make money in england, given all of the constant political pressure from these companies. it is a tough marketplace to be in. hans: what is the bigger headache for them? is it the regulatory environment in the u.k., or is it angela shift?s energy >> the energy shift is the big problem for them. they have been hit harder than any other company. they were a giant of the german industrial world. they are having to close nuclear power stations, which were a real cash cow. powered plants don't make any money. they are

tom: but the u.k. is. luke: i think some of the regulations and restrictions that we suffer under the eu would be lifted. would have a resurgence of belief in democracy. i think the eu has in a way damaged the people's faith in politics and political leadership. i think that is, across europe. francine: unlike the u.s.. luke: i think if there were votes, it would be closer than you think. the dutch and the danish and the germans are looking at us, saying how come they get to vote? there are many other challenges of making the eu work. tom: you are a fossil in this business. where do the young kids want to be? i know they want to be in berlin. we have cool people like hans nichols, they want to be in berlin. everybody wants to be in london? london is thriving thanks to bright younger people and older people as well. they are starting businesses. they are generating investment. growth and job creation are at the top of the tree in terms of the eu. we have pretty good demographics compared to other members of

for u.k. viewers, we will bring you osborne's appearance before the treasury committee live at 10:30 a.m. the treasuryt of select committee. the mayor of london. osborne to go there today. let's not leave the politics aside, but we try to understand risk. what we have got is the mayor warning -- i want your opinion, that the city of london would flourish, that stirring would be strong and robust outside of the eu. do you agree or disagree? >> i think the first point to note is that sterling seems to be the main financial vehicle by which markets are racing in the brexit risk. we have seen a massive spike in sterling volatility. manus: this is volatility. three-month volatility. we have written a couple of stories this week. financial crisis of recession fears, back at the height of the crisis. the green. is euro area crisis. scottish referendum. that is practically perpendicular in terms of momentum. $16 billion worth of debt. but the market only thinks that cable was dropped to 135. that is n

the u.k. energy policy and new employment numbers. he also spoke about education and crime reduction. >> order. questions to the prime minister. lovely. >> thank you, mr. speaker, this morning i had meetings with military colleagues and others. i shall have other such meetings later today. >> crime has fallen over 60%, i am holding my third job fair in the next two weeks with 25 companies. agree,rable friends may we have made a good start. it's not get complacent. we will continue to get good quality jobs. >> i very much agree. if we look at the west midlands and take today's unemployment figures we can see that the claimant count has come down since 2010 by 91,000. i am sure the house would welcome another update on the unemployment figures. employment at our country a new record high, 31.4 billion -- 31 point -- 31.49 people. compared to 2010, there are now 2 million more people in work then when i became prime minister. account any last month,000 figures welcome across the house. the last m

allocated to not u.k. assets. they are allocated to funds. they are expecting the fund manager to deal with the internal consequences of this. so i think it is a curiosity for a lot of people around the world. for asset allocation decisions, no. manus: it is on the radar, but not the highest thing on the radar. fund managers are underweight u.k. equities, making it the least favorite. if you look at this in terms of the actual protection, investors are beginning to pay on the equity story. it is almost a mirror image. is it time to buy protection? people are paying more premium to protect themselves on sterling than they are on other currencies. david: you can do that if you have a european portfolio. you can protect the sterling part of your assets. ofhink there are a lot reasons to look at potentially overweighting u.k. stocks. it is relatively cheap and the dividend yield is in excess of 4.4%. this is a market that has been plagued by commodity weakness, mining weakness. we are near the end of that train wreck. we may not be right there at

the u.k. has more favorable demographics than a lot of the european countries and is likely to be the largest european economy in the years ahead. wheren see a scenario sterling goes up with the euro on a brexit. sterling-dollar at 1.30. we are going to bring you full coverage of mark carney's testimony later today. asian stocks have dropped the most in about three weeks since data showed japan's economy and chinese exports are shrinking. on whatet more details has been happening in the overnight session. nejra: i had the chart here of the asia-pacific index. they are heading for the biggest drop in three weeks. this is coming after china's exports slump deepening. the exports dropping more than 25%. so much focus on china with the national people's congress on going. i want to show you brent crude. yesterday, this rallied above $40 a barrel. it has halted, the rally there, -- 40.35.l above 40 yesterday, brent rose on the speculation that we might see producers agreed to an output freeze but w

and u.k. when france lose the most in case of a brexit -- would france lose the most inn the case of a brexit? will beny and france partly compensated by the fact they can operate their more easily. the main issue is the uncertainty, what we call the option value. i wouldn't be surprised if the initial phase is one in which you see investment come down, you see maybe an appreciation of a pound in that case. issue.that is the main in 1950, we did not have an option value. the rest of them had to combine europe. to advance francine's question, what is the fear that germany and france have of a brexit? does it go back to the tensions of 1950 or is it just a more modern discussion? >> i don't know what is in the mind of policymakers. a number of people think of europe as a big project, just not an economic union. has is something the u.k. excepted. -- accepted. it as a stepsee backwards. does it go further than that? i don't know. it is an appealing way of thinking and many policymakers still beli

>> the u.k. is more than 100 employees here. u.k. is a great market for us. london is kind of the hub to allow us to look other parts of europe. markets we're looking at and germany will probably be next on the list. you look at a level of venture capital. it's very consistent what you seen in the u.k. you can look at innovation joseph all. very-- overall. >> what is the geographical trend coming out of china. i'm interested to know you did the source and gathered data on china. what differentiate the start-up coming out of china? what's the growth trajectory? >> what we find interesting in the survey, china, u.k. and u.s. some of the metrics are consistent. challenging raising capital. those are the sort of things kind of in a consistent way. one big difference you see between china and u.k. and u.s., what their expectations are for exit. what you see in china, very high portion of companies expect to go public. part of it is, there hasn't been for a lot of m&a transactions happening in china. philosophy why we want to acquire something we can hire developer

u.k. market has rallied 11%. as in the rallied 8% since the middle of february. it is a real shift, having passed through the needle. , there counting the msci asian market lagging. you have that downgraded by moody's on that view of china. the yuan is stabilizing. the manufacturing data really caught the zeitgeist. anna: anything positive around that, to put it in context with that comment from the bank calling from a rate hike from the u.s. in march. still only a 22% chance. a nice line, manus. let us check in on some of the ofk assets, get a gauge where people are putting their money in the overnight session into australia. 0.72 on the aussie dollar, on the back of that gdp number, the dollar rising for a third day. gdp at 0.6%, better than the estimate. and the q3 number, also up. that helps. man is going up to 1.1%. the reserve bank of australia on pause. but dollar-yen, let's be fair. we dropped to 1.2% yesterday. the reason why i put euros sterling on there, there is a new feature o

just remind us what the u.k. polls are telling us about where people stand on the issue. >> if you look at the polls they are pretty much still all over the place at the moment. there is one batch of polls that has a narrow lead for the leeds camp but other batches show there is actually a very strong lead for the camp that says that the u.k. should stay in. when we're looking at this poll, this also applies i guess in the u.s. as well. there is a big difference between internet polling and phone polling. the phone polls tend to track less commitmented voters. they tend to show a lead that the u.k. should stay in the european union. the internet polling which tends to capture more committed voters, people more committed to their respective causes, that tends to show a lead for the leave camp. francine: looking at the polls and what people are worried about, it should probably be what the u.k. economically would look like outside of the e.u. it looks like a lot of the talk is on snchity. >> the london chattering c

with theit a problem u.k. and many others don't want to take in the refugees. the u.k. is planning on taking on 20,000 over the next five years. opinion is now accepted this is a collective problem. it is everybody's problem. it needs collective funding, and a collective effort. there is money being made available. 3 billion euros have already been assigned in february. there is no more money contingent upon turkey meeting certain requirements. ryan: i puritanical heritage makes difficult for me to discuss this -- explain, was the british prime minister discussing the tampon tax? of the: that tax is part single market. if you're going to have a single market on a level playing field you have to understand that it has to be a level taxation right across the european union. currently, in fairness to the treasury, the united kingdom has an arrangement whereby the tax level is the lowest possible. i expect people will say that is too high. i rather hope that the chancellor will put pressure on the european union colleagues to say we want that. skeptics will say it is the ti

so it have created thousands of job in the u.k. -- thousands of jobs in u.k., and we would like to do more of that. looking at all of the other options, everybody has thought over this. i have thought over it. i have talked to a lot of people . there is no better model that huge us as usual -- as advantage. is that what we've got at the moment? got an: we've just conversation, talking about things. talking about things which are unachievable. it trade agreements that have not been -- trade agreements that have not been de in two years. doing trade and preventing migration from the eu which is not possible. the cornerstone of free trade -- conversations. manus: thank you so much for joining me. guy: welcome to "on the move." we are counting you down to the european open. i'm guy johnson alongside hans nichols. he is back in germany here here is what we are watching. the dollar, will yellen put the whole back in her cage which he speaks in new york guy: that is the question -- new york? that is the question. react?l the yen modi on the offensive. the prime minister hits back at critics