the treasury. >> right. and, jimmy krks to jared's point, i mean, the stock market at least has been responding to the promise of all of this as jared alludes, but when it gets to the finer points and the blow-up of special interests in washington, is this going to get a lot more difficult? >> listen, you know, there's -- we've all been talking about tax reform for a while, and there seems to be a general broad consensus jared mentioned. people across the bank spectrum certainly agree we need corporate tax reform. but it hasn't happened. one reason our traditional sort of partisan differences, obama administration wanted it to be not necessarily be revenue-neutral, but there's also lobbying groups, interest groups, getting rid of these deductions. that's all really hard stuff, and, again, there's a reason we haven't seen this reform. to immediately start just plugging in the numbers thinking, great, we're going to have a 15% tax rate or a 33% income tax rate. there's going to be a very messy road getting the

treasury department , as well asialogue treasuries and many years of experience. firmly establishing the sustainable and successful response. improved engagement" a nations. and third effective mobilize a shins. close collaboration with the film. since the partnership's launch 18 months ago, regularly incorporating policy dialogue. most recently at the imf world bank in october. several partner countries that assess and diagnosis. have also held discussions with our country teams. global funds and other implementing partners. the partnership is entering its next end most exciting phase. they were unable to partnership and billing foundations. uganda's ministry of finance and terms ofsury find reference to the partnership -- it aims to bolster uganda, hiv-aids and greater coordination and public financial management system. among the ministry of finance, and the full program. optimized programming decisions and helped with cap data availability, building an understanding of the support and address other gaps to prevent uganda from maximizing the impact. the treasur

donald trump's treasury. former goldman sachs partner is said to be the top choice to serve as treasury secretary. waiting for the decision from the president-elect. market fallout from trump's win eases off. emerging market stocks and currencies are gaining for the first time in a week. sales rose more than forecast. vice chairman stanley fischer will be at brookings at 1:30 p.m. eastern time. we will have coverage. abigail: we have u.s. equity futures modestly higher this morning. after that better-than-expected retail print for the month of october. the real strength for the nasdaq really being helped by a recovery in the big internet names. facebook and alphabet. we are looking at copper and iron both down sharply. copper is on pace for its best .onth iron just recently hit a record high. it will be interesting to see whether or not that proves consolidation. u.s. steel and clips natural, all of these stocks have been on a monster rally up more than 25% each from last monday through yesterday's close. a b

treasury and the 10 year. we expect to see the fed rising interest rates next month and continue in 2017. we are going to stay in the same environment in europe. we have a different situation between the short and the long. with at 207 -- with italy at 207, is there value to be had in ecb? guest: the value we expect to between the u.s. treasury, we expect to 50 and 3% by the end of next year. we have i would say local considerations. it's that explains the currency in the index. host: would you buy them? guest: considering we expect the price on the referendum, there is an attempt to buy. the -- willnty will be the magnitude. we prefer to stay away for the time being. i know you have a short bias on treasuries. i want to bring you back to what is happening on the 10 year and the chart showing treasuries are extremely oversold if you look at the relative strength index. a number of indicators suggesting the route has gone to our too fast. i'm wondering how much higher you expect that 10 year yield to go before

italian yields have risen about as much as treasuries. .ecently although they are lower than treasuries in the european complex some of they offer spread relative to the bund. coming back to the united states, use a high-yield has not gone away, something that would attract you for the potential return of bond funds. robert: the market is probably still in a bull market. within that treasuries are one of the least attractive. a range of nongovernments look attractive. they are high-yield with instructor product, evenr-quality clo's or subprime, as well as some emerging markets. whole range of spread products that will outperform treasuries. vonnie: an emerging market or two that you find attractive? robert: the currencies, local markets, hard currencies. the hard currency emerging markets are probably the most attractive for that kind of a strategy. the latin american countries have been beat up with the trump election, but funds on investment grade, the triple b universe, are the most attractive. names like mexico, do some extent brazil, and close eye arernments like amex attractive. v

road map begins with treasury

we know now that the treasury job is going to steve mnuchin. charlie gasp arena is here on what it may be. >> we knew yesterday that was can be steve mnuchin. foxbusiness beat the times and the journal. it's as family. we beat the whole thing onto a very big economic appointments. and wilbur ross as commerce secretary. he's cannot fill out his cabinet and the other interesting thing this is where the irony of draining the swamp is starting to look very bizarre. another guy the number two guy was actually the first supporters of president obama is now on the list to be when you have to balance the books. he worked with gary over the years. this is interesting. two guys potentially. it's unclear if gary will be in or not. we do know this. a decent guy. and very smart. he's been bristling for years. he wants to run the place. he's recovering from cancer. it doesn't look like he's can step down anytime soon. my guess is there will be a conversation about whether or not he will step down soon if he gets the nod here. whether they become the ceo in t

said to be the pick for treasury secretary. nuecen.e miniatur of supplyverall cut of 1.4 million barrels a day for opec. many ministers weighing in over the last 24 hours. >> i'm optimistic. i cannot speak about a cut. we should wait some hours and receive the final resolution. >> we are just discussing the details of how to set those volumes. we go into this meeting hoping and relatively optimistic. >> we are optimistic. there have been a few gray areas , but i believe we will also video. >> to reach an agreement around the edge area and dust we are optimistic -- around the , we are optimistic. see the mechanism of how we cut. we will agree to the mechanism of doing that. >> if it goes towards 60, a big huge amount of u.s. shale oil will be profitable. i should also think the next two , iran will make a decision. on the basis of their own member thatries -- i'm also sure they will consider the heads of the global economic growth. viennaoining us now from is annmarie hordern. it has been a wild roller coaster ride. are we close

there are aspects that are in commerce and acts in treasury. so if we determine that we need to label them as a currency manipulator, that's something the treasury would do. and -- >> are you a fan of janet yellen, steven? >> you know, look. i think she's done a good job at the fed. >> she should continue and serve out her term? >> i'm not going to comment if she should or shouldn't. >> you a fan? >> i think that she dealt with a very difficult situation and did a reasonably good job. >> will she be renominate snd. >> that's a question for her and the president. not a question for us. >> but i will say we do have two governor spots to fill and that will be high on the list. >> are you both going to get active twitter accounts? >> the answer is i do now have an active twitter account only because there was a fake twitter account so i had to have a real one. i used to have a pseudonym for twitter and i'm trying to get my check to verify me. hopefully now they will give it to me. >> congrats on the appointments and good luck. >> good luck. >> i do

will be -- the treasury secretary will be. there are a number of names out there. learned, former goldman sachs, the guy who ran the fundraising for the trump campaign. he is being seen as one potential candidate. donald trump said he would make a great secretary of the treasury. he is a little bit more cautious than the president-elect on dodd-frank. the wall street journal is talking about a guy called jeb hensarling. he's incredibly close to wall street. he has talked about dodd-frank in the past and has talked about watering down that legislation. he is being seen as a serious contender for this role. he was a big credit of the expert-import bank -- critic of the export-import bank. he is well known to wall street. very close relationship with wall street. the jamie dimon that was knocking around yesterday caused a few smiles around wall street. many people -- it was listening to -- it was interesting to listen to lloyd blankfein talk about this yesterday. lloyd was joking. that caused a ripple of laughter. it will be inte

treasuries yield spread, dollar climbing with that. the dollar has risen above its 200-day moving average. every major developed currency except the new zealand dollar also poised for its best month since 2009 versus the end. -- y en. vonnie: thank you. lots going on in the markets and the weather politics. more from the newsroom. >> president-elect donald trump has chosen former goldman sachs banker steve mnuchin as treasury secretary. he was well known in hollywood, bankrolling "the x-men" franchise. >> we need to make sure our infrastructure is set for the 21st century, that we have roads and power grids and infrastructure that support this country. that is going to be a big focus. >> trump also selected billionaire investor wilbur ross to be secretary of commerce. 'sss was an advocate for trump economic program went trump was still a long shot. rush has been in conflict with president-elect trump's economic program went trump's tm about the conflict in syria. he added that moscow was hoping for better relations with washington over

. >> the ten-year treasury note yield, some selling in treasuries pushing yields higher again. 2.32 is where we are on the ten-year. got that 3.2% growth for the third quarter. how does that bode for the current quarter? looks like yields are stronger. the dollar has been stronger all month long. doll dollar/yen has been a big mover, above 1.13. a stronger dollar, a weaker yen. as for the euro, it's weaker. dollar strength there as well. just back above 1.06. the pound also sort of flattish, 1.2485. gold suffered heavily this month on the back of that stronger u.s. dollar. worst month in years for gold. it's weaker again by a quarter percentage point. 1,118.30. the dow this month up 5.4%. s&p up 3.7. nasdaq 3.7. the russell 2000 up 11.5%. that's been the story of the month as has been a stronger dollar and rising yields. you would say the last week or so has seen the momentum of those moves come off a bit. also some sector rotation. banks come back after a strong run. clearly huge gains. the election has been a positive factor for risk assets. but we are just in momentum. >> there's tw

blankfein says he would be a great treasury sector -- treasury secretary. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy: thank you. let us pick up on that last story. sweeping pay limits on wall street. trying to do so by january. we know what happens in january. the government agencies are making last-minute adjustments to the measure to complete it within the next two months. the rule by the finance industry is that it is the last major unfinished piece of the dodd-frank act. we await further updates from the donald trump transition site. find outiting also to who will be the next treasury secretary. the wall street journal is talking about a republican from texas. he is the chairman of the house financial services committee. he is not a great fan of dodd-frank. is dodd-frank dead, what would replace it? good morning. the banks have had quite a week on the idea that maybe we are going to see the regulatory burden lifted, rolled back, and we have a steeper yield curve. how much further to the banks have to run? >> it depends on how much further we think the y

treasury secretary. we are going to talk emerging markets and the economies that stand to lose the most under president elect trump. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. i am jonathan ferro. a four-day winning streak on the stoxx 600, the longest in over a month. utility selloff, banks gain, yields higher. treasuries aggressively lower yesterday, yields up 10 basis points on the 10 year and up another three today. crude rolls over but a big rally in base metals. david: when of the things that donald trump was international trade and the need he sees the night dates to get tough with trading partners such as china and mexico. what is it he can do to make good on his promises when it comes to trade, and what might be the consequences? joining us is robert kyl of hogan mobile, specializing in international trade measures. thank you very much for joining us. hobart -- hogan and hearts and. elect trumpresident do on the first day of august -- office without congressional support when it comes

anna: drums treasury. tomer goldman sachs is said be the top pick for treasury secretary in the new administration. a week on from election day, the bond selloff slows. emerging market stocks and currencies have their first gains in a week. the may doctrine. the u.k. prime minister says u.k. companies have a responsibility to show capitalism can work for everyone and soften resentment of those who feel left behind by globalization. --are they pressing on to boost the capacity? we speak with the group ceo at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time after the airport -- after the airline report. ♪ anna: very warm welcome to the program everybody. this is bloomberg daybreak. our flagship show. we are getting some breaking numbers this morning. merck pharmaceuticals. yousef: let us break down those numbers as they begin trickling in. we are currently looking at third quarter coming in at 600 -- 676 million euros. for 1.563.e here was that is a beat on the adjusted eps brunch. we are still waiting for additional details. this is

also, one big ring is the treasury sector. -- one big thing goes treasury sector. we had reports of that ina minute now we are not so sure. that is another big one coming next week. david: we started the week whoing like we knew it was. marty: we knew that was the recommendation and we are trying to find out just what that says. david: thank you, rd shanker, bloomberg senior executive editor for politics. jonathan: we wrap up the trade with 25 minutes. this is the shape of the session so far. we tread water on equities in the united states, breaking few levels in the bond market, highest yield on the 10 year and the dollar back on top. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ york,: 10:00 a.m. in new 3:00 p.m. in london, 11:00 p.m. in hong kong. i am vonnie quinn in new york. mark: the london, i am mark barton. welcome to "bloomberg markets." vonnie: we will take you from new york frankfurt, the united kingdom and here's what we watching. president-elect's selects jennifer sessions for attorney general. the odds of when he will get confirmed by the senate. mark: in fr

treasury was $76.6 billion in september. the selling of u.s. treasury's globally is continuing. tracy: thank you so much, stephen engle. ising up, we look at what casting new doubt over iran's booming oil industry. lots to talk about their as industry representatives meet in qatar and vienna later this month. this is bloomberg. ♪ juliette: ms. the first word headlines from around the world. is sellingr prince stakes in companies such as citigroup -- citigroup and twitter. has heldtment firm city shares since 1991. it took a plunge during the financial crisis, and a rise in the years since. a key member of trump's team says incoming administration wants to fix roads and bridges. -- they talked of an infrastructure bank to pay for the work, something the top -- trump team says is controlled by and funded by a tax increase on businesses. is regulatory changes, looking at the creation of infrastructure bank and infrastructure investments. clearly priorities are important. also trade and infrastructure. we want to be in a position in the first 100 days we can execute a number of go

treasuries, for their worst month going back to 2009. we have a chart on the bloomberg that shows that. here's the monthly move on the bloomberg barclays treasury index. drop in thisother month as a result of this bond rout. a lot of movement, that's for sure. time now to check in on the bloomberg first word news with courtney donohoe in the newsroom. donaldy: president-elect trump says he will leave his business in total to focus running the country. he will hold a news conference with his children on december 15 to discuss the details. he says he's not legally obligated to hand off his businesses but that it is important to have no conflicts of interest. meanwhile, trump has chosen steve mnuchin to be secretary of treasury. he's a well-known hollywood financier and was bankrolling hits like "avatar." he spoke earlier at trump tower. >> we need to make sure our infrastructure is built for that when he first century, that we have roads and bridges and power grids and infrastructure that support this country and that's going to be the foc

scarlet: whether it is equities or treasuries. a quick look at one stock moving in late trading, these are shares of guess tumbling. the missed -- the retailer missed earnings estimates. the ceo says the retail environment in america remains challenging. joe: what'd you miss? marketse in emerging may turn into more of a panic. our next guest says despite this emerging market external balances are much healthier. thank you is pablo, for coming on. worst intro noted, the month for emerging markets. how much of the story is about simply what is going on in u.s. rates, and how much are other factors of perceptions of trade? pablo: both things are coming into play. there has been a duration shock that affects all markets. it is not a question of emerging markets. it happens across the physical space. then we have this, generating money back into the u.s., the dollar's strength. that is away from the e.m. and back into the u.s. scarlet: is there any way a stronger dollar may be better for the e.m. in any way? positive iscan be what may

we do not have a good handle on treasury yet. francine: you wrote trump nation so you know about him, where does mitt romney fit? we have a picture of him having dinner with donald trump, first at trump tower and they are still talking. >> that romney to me is emblematic -- mitt romney to me emblematic on -- the balance between people wanting to serve and turning their backs on past criticisms. they have had of donald trump. clearly wants the job and people inside the donald trump team that do not want him around. he is not considered a good soldier. the dinner last night, david petraeus was sitting there, they were not alone. donald trump likes to get attention. there is one. that this thing is being done to embarrass mitt romney. it is hard to say. ,rancine: going back to mnuchin he was the youngest partner ever to have a partner at goldman sachs. doesn't mean that donald trump with disappointment loses a little bit of credibility with his base? it is not wall street bashing him it is deregulating, favoring wall street? massive

the treasury landing team has been in touch with the treasury department, as has been the case at state, defense, the national security council. again, i don't think they'll be more warmly received anywhere in government than at treasury. and by the way, that was the same welcome that we extended to the obama team when it came in in december of 2008. >> finally, you know, the press is obsessed with these tweets about snl and the hamilton cast. today it's this madness about whether or not he's going to meet with "the new york times." how do you synthesize that when there's obviously important decisions to be made right now? >> i know there's a lot of focus on those tweets. by the way, national security is my area of expertise. what i would say is what he has said in the national security area, some of the appointments he's has made, particularly the very strong appointment of congressman mike pompeo to the cia to me are what we should be focusing on. i understand in today's world, particularly in the social media, that there is going to be a lot of focus on these other issues. i think th

the treasury story -- treasury yields spiking higher. you can capture it on the bloomberg chart -- treasuries is the blue line rolling over -- the equity market that keeps on pushing higher. at some point, you would think yields higher, stronger dollar is going to eat into this risk rally in a big way. i guess the question is when? guy: yeah, i think we will wake up one morning and go enough is enough. we're not there yet. that assistance coming through most of the analysts. the other thing to bear in mind -- you have been buying -- this is been so counterintuitive of light -- you bought equities for yields, and that story is changing. that is something the market will have to think about as we see the return that we buy bonds for yields, not capital gain. that is something the markets will have to get their heads around. guy: how traditional -- jonathan: how traditional of you, guy. we bring in chad morganlander, and still with us, oliver lerach -- oliver renick. we have been talking about the high yields, a resilient equity market. how

the lee towards the top of yield range for 10 year treasuries. scarlet: we are not just looking at the u.s. but around the globe. it is a global phenomenon. even if we have reason to push yield higher in the u.s. are those reasons justified elsewhere? ira: in some cases. like europe, maybe it is. very stable growth, inflation is known to be modestly higher than what expectations were six months ago. but that does not mean it will necessarily be high. should you have negative 10 year rates in germany, probably not. japan is a different story. there you have a central bank that is saying if you'll gets much above zero week will get -- if yield gets above zero -- it is not meaningfully away from zero enough to act. but if that threat is realized and they come in and buy 7 -- by several hundred thousand yen -- having risingp bond yields in a lot of the developed world. the emerging world is much more idiosyncratic. get this fiscal stimulus in theory and then we get higher rates, higher inflation expectation. let's talk about the fed. do, how does a c

looking at the ten-year treasury note, above 2%. having touched 1.7% yesterday during that yo-yoing of markets we saw as people decided whether trump was risk off or risk on event. joining us is paul donovan. thank you very much for joining us. do you agree with the market's conclusion by the close yesterday that a trump presidency is a risk-on event? >> up to a point. i think it's very clear that president-elect trump has got an agenda around infrastructure spending and around tax cuts, which is likely to get through a republican congress. to that extent you get immediate fiscal still plus that favors certain sectors in the economy, around construction, maybe issues around healthcare and maybe finance. at the same time this is also an inflationary program. let's be clear, u.s. inflation was running in line with averages along those measures, and now you're adding a relatively full time of employment. this will add to inflation. that's being reflected in the bond markets. >> so bond yields rise and surprising to see the dollar stren

scarlet: the selloff in treasuries continues. we have higher yields and the dollar strength is another story that just keeps going. u.s. dollar index right now up to 101.49, up by half a 1%, and crude oil. oliver: energy stocks up 5%. scarlet: brent crude at $50.45 a barrel as opec agrees to a production cut, against market expectations. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. i'm scarlet fu. oliver: and i'm oliver renick. steven mnuchin and wilbur ross have both been nominated for the government, treasury secretary and commerce secretary both. mnuchin's comments today already moved markets. he told reporters mortgage lenders fannie mae and freddie mac should exit government's grip, sending shares to the highest since august of 2016. the we now talk about that and more. pretty big move there. so now markets just hanging on all these picks and what they say? >> yeah, fanie and freddie shares are up over 100% since the election. if you go back earlier this year to some of their lows recently, it's even more -- i

mnuchin is treasury secretary, ross for commerce secretary. also, trump is making this huge promise this morning, he says he will break ties with his businesses so he can focus on running the country. trump making that announcement in a series of early morning tweets. he says he will unveil the exact details during a december 15th news conference with his children by his side. all of this after mitt romney, who is under consideration for secretary of state, puts his differences aside and breaks bread with mr. trump at a posh new york city restaurant, inside trump international hotel. we have a lot to talk about this morning. let's begin with cnn's sara murray. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, carol. well, donald trump and his transition team are making some of these top level positions official this morning. they put out a release making it clear they are choosing steve mnuchin to be donald trump's treasury secretary. mnuchin has been very loyal to donald trump. he is one of the top economic advisers with his campaign finance chairman.

in that fund used to be nominal treasuries, and all of our treasuries in that fund today are tips. our core fixed income fund all of our treasuries two months ago were nominals. now one-third of our treasuries are tips, and the financials i like for the obvious reasons, a real simple thesis. -- i've heard it on cnbc over and over again. i agree with it. it's steepening and positive for financials, and, of course, the trump win around the edges means less pressure. the moves this week are very big, but they're justified, but for the long-term, you know, not so much for the short-term. these moves are really, really overdone. >> so then you would be an obvious fader of any yield play, so-called yield play, a utility, a telecom, a staple, a reet, is that what you are hearing? >> it's interesting you mention reets and utility. when i spoke at the hedge fund conference back on may 4th, my recommendation was to go long rem, which is the etf for mortgage reets and go short xlu, which is the etf for utilities. that trade has already worked -- i recommended it on a one-time leverage. it's a

. -- secretaryhree of state, secretary defense and treasury. mitt romney's name has been floated for state while billionaire investment banker steve mnuchin is expected to be secretary treasury. billionaires,are watches the insides or both, contradicting his call to shake up washington. a fierce critic of donald trump, mitt romney has changed his tone as he angles to be the diplomat in chief. the two men dined at one of the st hotels.- ritzie mitt romney: i do wonderful evening with president-elect dump truck. we had another discussion about affairs. -- president-elect dump truck. it was enlightening. -- president-elect donald trump. giuliani isdolph also in contention for the top spot. the spot,man clenches yet another washington insider appointed to trump's cabinet. treasury --n named transportation administrator. she served in both bush administrations. jeff sessions is the choice for attorney general. the alabama center has spent the last 20 years in washington. is nominating republicans with close ties to wall street like billionaire phila

treasuries now in focus with the ten year still above 2.1%. in europe mixed session right now with france holding on to a grain of .3 of 1%. >> eurozone gdp plus 0.3% plus 1.6% year-on-year. that's online. germany coming in softer. italy stronger. overall no big misses or hits but the german one getting attention. the uk is out performing today in a relative sense. that comes in light of a softer pound. the pound down about 0.8%. allowing the ftse 100 to rally. >>> let's take a look at asia to see how markets are responding to the data we got out across the eurozone. the trump rally wearing off a bit, the japanese nikkei now at 17,668. basically hanging on to the flat line whereas in hong kong gains there of around half of a percent. china down fractionally on the day. stocks and bonds suffered about a 2.5 billion in outflows due to trump as policies. >> let's look at broad maerkts. oil prices are rallying. yesterday broadly ended the day flat. today up 2.5%. opec will deliver its production cut. of course that's one of the big events we're lo

this is gilts versus treasuries. treasuries are back to zero. gilts are underwater. they have suffered a little more in the last few days. what is the trade? >> one of the reasons they have suffered is the rise in inflation. currently, i think, we see a rebound of sterling. i think this is also going to help the inflation expectations of it. i think there is a good chance to get involved because mark carney is not going to raise rates even if inflation stays above the average. matt: when do you think we will ecb start tor the get pushed around by the markets? when do you think we will see the bond vigilantes, and force the central banks hand in europe? >> if we stay in the continent of europe, i think it is going to be very tough. it us face it, inflation, even if it calms, is going to be years behind where the u.s. and where the u.k. is. i think the ecb as unlikely to change their policy in terms of rates. qe, the ecb has to stay the course for the time being. i think that is going to be very tough. when you look the bank of england, we are already there. the market

treasuries partnership. this is a collaboration that was launched in may 2015 to support finance ministries in low and middle-income countries to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of health resources to fight hiv aids. my remarks will outline the motivations and objectives of the partnership ship and the path forward. first of let me address the issue of why this partnership. achieving an aids regeneration by 2030 will require dedicated efforts today, first to improve the coordination, efficiency, coordination, efficiency, and effectiveness of resources devoted to combating hiv aids and to strengthen the long-term sustainability efforts. we are aware of the need for more recess resources. by some estimates annual spending will need to increase by a most 40% from $19 billion to $26 billion by 2020. donors and partner countries must do their part to fund this effort. in an abatement of plateauing donor resources partnering countries will have to take on an increased share. given realities is more import

>> i would say steve mnuchin is the perfect pick for treasury. he was one of the architects and one of the folks who worked tirelessly with the president-elect to put together this tax plan, helping to take the economic populism message to all americans. as we talk about lowering the tax code -- lowering tax rates, how do we make sure we free up more money for hard-working americans. so really, steve was the one who got in there and helped develop the plan. it's really -- it takes someone like steve, who understands how the system works, how we can go make it more fair and help american workers to get in there and actually change it. the other thing i would say, too, is that it's been well over a decade since steve mnuchin was with goldman sachs. i would say steve has been a winner at everything he's done in life. he has been a successful financier, banker, he has even been a successful movie producer and financer. this is someone who has really been a success with the economy, and he is someone we think could help get our growth going. it hasn't

the key position of treasury secretary. know, if anything about the likely candidates and the timing? >> the timing is something we expect to go quickly. chairman has been tipped for the job. had the chairman of the house financial services committee. we will see this appointment soon. is being closely watched by the markets up turned in the wake of equities. it is the position everyone has their ion. says all of this is important for the tone of the market. matt e in joins us now -- matt egan joins us now. that is belief and hope donald trump will do fiscal spending and hope we don't see campaignho ran the trail. how important are these elections for you? we are reaching a paradigm shift. before the election, we saw inflation starting to pick up. policies ares inflationary at a time when the slack in the economy is tightening and we have aggressive monetary policy. jon: how long can yields spike without risk rally taking a big hit? what are you looking at that gives you a line in the sand in the bond market? >> historicall

how does the treasury of secretary -- how does the treasury secretary fit in on monetary policy? martin: it must depend very much on who the man is and his background. the treasury secretary when i was there likes to say that he was the president's chief economic spokesperson. so his job was not to design policies but to sell them. tom: but to your point. totally different than a guy who works within massachusetts politics. each treasury secretary is different. absolutely. and they take on a different kind of role depending on the president and their own strengths. you have covered this more than anyone else in the newsroom. do you need a white house that is working together? -- thet good to have cousins is so different, is it good to have divided opinions in the white house to get the most out of people? if donald trump puts a lot of guys and girls who don't see eye to eye? managemente is a philosophy of cats in a bag where you throw everybody in and see who comes out. of having people you people he really trusts and knows well around him. the key thing here is that donald trump

topld trump has interviewed executives for the role of treasury secretary. three candidates have wall street experience. including the billionaire investor wilbur ross and jonathan gray, the global head of real estate at blackstone group. president barack obama says he intends to give donald trump space to lead the u.s. and set his own agenda but he is reserving the right to reinsert himself into the public debate if he thinks core american values are at stake. if obama remains involved, it would mark a departure from his recent predecessor bush and clinton. japanese exports fell further than expected in october. shipments dropped 10.3% from a year earlier against a .5% fall. imports plunged 16.5% leaving a trade surplus. exports to china were down over 9% all u.s. shipments fell more than 11%. may prime minister theresa will today urge businesses to work with the government to ensure the benefits of capitalism are shared more equally. confederation the for british industry's annual conference, she will underline her place that a vote for brexit was the peop

five-year treasury yields. you can see that jumped to over 100 basis points over the last few days as the short end starts to price in the fed rate hike. the deeper question is what happens when the neutral rate? do we see in neutral -- re-rating of the neutral rate? yes, a fed hike will be part of it, but the neutral rate could move higher, as well. this blue line is the neutral rate. the lower it is, the less the fed has to do to tighten monetary policy. the hire it moves, the more can -- the fed can hike to tighten monetary policy. this will be pivotal to just how fast the fed will really go in their rate hike cycle. deutsche bank says this good re-rate 10 basis points higher through 2017. the white line that i wanted to focus on is the natural range. minusthe fed rate inflation. if inflation goes off the real rate actually goes down, so policy could be looser than what we thought. policy looser than you think implies the fed could hike more and faster to make policy tighter. there are a lot of nuances happe

so this is why the treasury initiative can really help. but beyond that, we've also got to ensure that a greater share of resources are al call ited to ealth. and it might be rational the short term to pull out of health but it's very hard to reallocate an entire budget if international funding goes down. and i think to do that, advocacy has to change because our sense of the world bank is finance ministries are against single issue arguments. it's really hard to find a good argument for focusing on one disease or teaching algebra as opposed to trigonometry. it's not the question that ministry finance is going to but beyond that, our since that ministry finance tends to think of the social sectors. which include health education nd social welfare. the efficiency argument becomes central. i will close by saying i think this initiative is a really important opportunity to move from an emergency to a long-term response and we can get this right but we can't afford a lot of mishaps. >> thank you, david. let's see. where are we? we have about h

liz: but not treasury secretary? >> so far he is telling them the job of treasury secretary is not, quote, unquote, suitable for him. but i will say this. and this is coming from some people i know within the trump transition team, they believe he is certainly leaving the door open for possible appointment. this notion of advisor him saying i may be wooed. we should point out when hank paulson was the ceo of goldman sachs, i can tell you in the days before that before he became treasury secretary for george bush, you know, i had many, many conversations with his senior staff who said, no way he is going to take it, no way. then guess what? at some point he was on a plane going to washington. source of mine saw him. source of mine says he is going to washington. he will take it. no they tell me is not going to take it. he took it. i played this last week. last week trump people saying no way it is going to happen. jpmorgan people saying no way it's going to happen. here is what i'm telling you viewer right now, they'r

tonie: there are mandates have a certain not of a you and in treasuries, u.s. treasuries. what is the typical amount they would hold? brian: i'm not exactly sure. ideally they would want to have a huge allocation of bonds. in a perfect world they would buy bonds, immunize themselves from any sort of price swings in the market and have enough assets to meet their liabilities long-term. that is their ultimate goal. it's because of these ultralow rates are altra depressed rates they have had to readjust their asset allocation and potentially take more risk. mark: great story. big winners emerge. one of the great stories on the bloomberg this morning. to the ceowill talk of a public wedding company about the what hundred billion dollar business of weddings. this is bloomberg. . . seeing is believing, and that's why we're opening more xfinity stores closer to you. visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. we'll put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, m

treasuries have been absolutely paltry. both by historical standards and versus what would be safe dividend-paying stocks. in general for the last two years even when the stock market has been getting absolutely pounded, bonds simply haven't represented very good values versus equities, that's why i've so often castigated you about the idea that excessive prudence can be the most reckless strategy of all. because if you invest too much of your money in safe virtually risk-free u.s. treasury bonds you've basically been ensuring you'll get a very low return on your investment for many years to come. all in all, if you want to grow supposed to be about then like i've said before, stocks are still really the only game in town even after, what can i say, so many years. however, i don't want to make it sound like i'm pooh-poohing bonds altogether. there's absolutely a place for bonds in your portfolio. it's an essential place. especially as you get older. here's the crux of the issue, though. even though i believe stocks are the

the most important appointment is treasury secretary. in the running is steve mnuchin and we're told that jamie dimon. they are still talking about this name. unclear how serious that is. you know, he is a banker. >> potentially very controversy. >> that is really interesting. a lot of people who own the stock of the company. one day the stock fell a bit. we are watching closely. in 2008, obama was 20 days in to the transition process before he choose his treasury secretary. we are told after thanksgiving most likely for the treasury secretary. >>> another issue is defense candidate james mattis. the two met for a little over an hour on saturday. the president-elect characterized the four-star general as the real deal and true general's general. a source tells cnn that no decision is made, but he is leaning in that direction. >>> melania and barron will remain behind in manhattan temporarily and donald trump will take the oval office after he oath of office. >>> now as president-elect trump, is trump going to lead in a way that differs f

stranger treasuries. straight to treasuries. no big moves on the back of this. it could be appropriate relatively soon to announce rate hikes. appears to be scope for more labor market days. david: it is striking there is not that big of a change. carl is the u.s. economic chief economist. i got it. i am not sure that looking at these headlines, it would have been any different befor donald trump was elected. >> we are hearing they are increasing expectations for fiscal stimulus but cannot change that outlook for the economy or monetary policy until they actually see what the plans are because we do not know if they will arrive in 2017 or 2018. the near to medium term outlook does not shift. david: in case people are getting too excited about this, there is still room in the labor market. she does not feel too much weight pressure. some people are very concerned with fiscal stimulus to get overheated. >> this is a bit overheated in terms of her economic outlook. we have seen expectations for the fed not only in december but over the course of next year looking f

mnuchin is treasury secretary, ross for commerce secretary. also, trump is making this huge promise this morning, he says he will break ties with his businesses so he can focus on running the country. trump making that announcement in a series of early morning tweets. he says he will unveil the exact details during a december 15

we are seeing treasury yields at an all time high. how far have they prized in that sical spending. -- how far have they priced in that fiscal spending? >> with this 50 basis point repricing, when you look at the .5%.ear note 2 in the longer term, he could get up to 3%. 3.5% by 2018, is that when it will occur? >> know, much sooner than that. people are fighting this selloff in bond yields and it keeps going. manus: what does that do to the dollar? the dollar marches higher on the wrist radar. the analysts are catching up on the dollar-dollar. big strong dollar, what does that do to your yen? >> when you look at dollar-yen, 1.20 is a realistic target. when we look at euro-dollar, it goes straight through those. you are sticking around and there is still plenty to get through. statements of intent. philip hammond prepares to deliver his first statement this week. a top business lobby group had the message of its own. we get into that discussion. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. looking at, you are the imperial palace. higher andyen is th

we expect a good partnership with treasury. domestic --ience, responset the [indiscernible] the partnership between these ministries has been fairly typical. havee civil society groups played an important role in getting governments to do the right thing. this is very important in the context of a long-term financial agreement. our own programs are about information and financing an increase [indiscernible] a country that is only raising a percentage of gdp of national revenue. if countries are only spending , what needs tore be done to support better domestic tired visitation of budgeting? they need external resources. many countries are not putting in the necessary domestic resources to help. right combination of pressure and controlling dust could drilling. ng.cajolihn negotiations that , itmpany large agreements needs to be bolstered. there are initiatives among various countries. support for national health financing strategies. providing additional funds who are making domestic efforts. a better focus on high-level negoti

now in other transition news, cabinet selections, including a big one, treasury. trump's campaign finance chair steve minuchin is the pick for treasury secretary. minuchin is a former partner at like "avatar." a pick for transportation, secretary elaine chow, former labor secretary under president george bush. of senator majority leader mitch mcconnell. georgia veteran tom price and is trump's pick for health and human services secretary. in the meantime, trump tower here in new york has become quite the place to see the once and future leaders of american politics and the republican today they included former vice president dan quayle who paused to speak with reporters. this morning, a few minutes after a fox news segment on flag burning, donald trump tweeted about flag burning. allowed to burn the american flag. consequences, perhaps loss of citizenship or a year in jail. more on this topic later, but for the record, that will be unconstitutional and revoking citizenship for descent would be the stuff of fascism. nobody in the united states can citizenship. carr

just moments ago, we learned he has selected a treasury secretary nominee. according to two sources. he is steve mnuchin, banker, fund raiser, movie producer. this comes on top of couple other major hires today. the biggest, of course, coming out with word of this treasure are ry secretary nominee. correspondent peter doocy is live outside trump tower in new york. busy day, peter. >> reporter: very busy day here in rainy midtown, manhattan, bret, mnuuchin, announcement about his nomination expected to come at some point tomorrow. he has no government experience. almost his entire career was spent in wall street. helped bankroll movies like "x men" and "avatar" and "the new york times" first reported he was going to be the pick as treasury secretary. we just confirmed that as you just said with two other sources. mnuchin's experience with the campaign was as national finance director and the transition team saw him fit to serve as the transition secretary. that's where we are. now, here in new york, it is suppertime. the other big headline of the day is about

we are watching treasuries very carefully. there's not only thing calculation of people trying to handicap what the fed is doing in december. there is also what donald trump will do in terms of fiscal stimulus. will there be new spending programs? will there be tax cuts? we are seeing a bump up in yields. quite an extraordinary one. we are also seeing a widening of the yield curve. you see this dramatic move. this reflects on the one hand those decreased expectations that there will be a rate increase to some extent in december. the spending plans and tax cuts being reflected in trade on the 30 year. this morning. not as much as it was at the highs of the session. up by 2%. also an inflation hedge. thed: for more on historical election last night we bring in michael mckee, bloombergs economics and politics editor. connect them. we had a stunning turnaround. how are the markets reacting? >> the markets are reacting as you would expect. they are down because there's a lot of uncertainty. nobody knows what's going to happen. we d

my bill, h.r. 5711, would prohibit the secretary of treasury from authorizing u.s. financing through american banks in connection with the export of commercial aircraft to iran, just as the administration claimed was u.s. policy to begin with. this bill would keep americans' deposits away from a country where the president's own state department calls, quote, the foremost state sponsor of terrorism, and treasury called it a primary money laundering concern. let me repeat that. the state department itself says this is the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism. and the treasury department has designated a jurisdiction of primary money laundering concern. how many more red flags need to go up? under this bill, americans would not have to fear for that their savings are being channeled to iran air which was sanctioned by treasury in 2011 by selling weapons of war to syria, which has claimed half a million lives and displaced millions more. a u.n. report concluded shared ballistic technology to north korea and the safe revolutionary guard corps whose deputy command

because under clinton, you had a treasury secretary that -- under bush, you had a treasury secretary that was a goldman sachs alum. under obama, you had a treasury secretary that was a goldman sachs alum but under trump, under trump, there is going to be change because we're going to have a treasury secretary this time who is from goldman sachs. >> but a president not beholden to -- >> is there only one country in america capable of producing -- >> that seems to be the case. policy is personnel. we're beginning to see that the candidate that was supposed to be the candidate of change seems at least by appearances to be business as usual on the economic front and this is where david's op-ed was spot on. spot on. >> i want to circle back to you. during the campaign you were so frustrated. you had hillary clinton who you thought was -- >> people were not nice to you. >> hillary clinton by wall street. republicans owned by wall street and for progressive americans, this is just one more piece of evidence that the more things change, the more they stay the same. wall street runs washingto