we do not invest enough in europe and our lost generation, it's not only a lost decade in europe, it's a lost generation we have. i mean, we need to do something for those people to have them believe in this europe again. peter: to pick up on a point you maybe short while ago, the time has come for angela merkel to dump wolfgang schaeuble. for her to decide, really, but one has to say -- peter: you are being very cautious. think itause i do not is the job of a journalist to advise the government to make this or that decision. peter: he stands for pulling the break. >> the idea that there has to be a limit to what a government can borrow is one of the most stupid ideas that has ever been introduced into policy. reader: prevailing poverty in the european union. the point of being a government is that you can are as much money as you need to save us from economic ruin and to decree from huron they you're not going to do that ever under any circumstances safely means that somewhere down the line, a politician is going to have to break his or her promise. i cannot even start to say how stup

in europe, you have northern europe and germany in good shape. they have somewhat tight labor markets. the rest of europe has overcapacity and supply. you will continue to the and a low inflation environment in europe. do you think we can do more than 10 best points on the bund 10-year? luke: we think you can. a lot of people are talking about the stronger growth in europe. that is not leading to inflation and not likely to lead to significant policy change in the ecb. we think they're going to buy everything and keep rates low. jonathan: would you be on the same side of that trade? luke: not quite. you think both germany and the u.s. on either side of 5% unemployment. has the wrong level of interest rates in their economy. ecb is starting to take note of that. this is happening in northern europe. there is capacity still to come out of the market. italy is a bit of a basket case. for me, it is not taking in enough of the risk that the ecb could change rhetoric in june and taper more aggressively in september. that means 40 basis points on the ge

willis not something which be moving quickly in europe. nothing ever moves quickly and europe. we have learned that over the last few years. paul, stick around. paul donovan joining us. let's get a recap. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. president-elect emanuel macron has been congratulated by world leaders, including donald trump. votes, he hasn almost 63% of the ballot. his victory over marine le pen will prove a relief for market. ts. in germany, angela merkel has successfully -- 34%.ggested the cdu took the spd took 26%. it is a disastrous results for merkel's challenger. she's regaining momentum. in china, the foreign-exchange raise. bank of china says cash piles climbed by 24 $.5 billion. -- $24.5 billion. the trump administration is weighing a cut of 95 percent to the budget for the white house office of national drug control policy. theoffice ordinates much of strategy including responses to trafficking. it could see several grant programs for drug prevention discontinued. this comes at a time the president has pledged to aggressively combat opioid addictio

in europe, it is politics. donald trump is unpopular in europe. it is good politics for her to say what she did over the weekend, which is that europe needs to go its own way. there is a deep substantive disagreement on trade, on climate change, on russia, where perceive president trump to be the weakest president since the second world war, not defending rush -- against russia. europeans perceive that president trump personally is not supportive of the european union. to a lesser extent, nato. is theopean union primary institution they have built since the second world war. as for the tweet this morning, president trump is describing germany as a competitor economically and not an ally. in american fork policy. david: he said we have a massive trade deficit with germany. plus they pay far less. very bad. president obama's of menstruation advocated larger countries as well. he is he? >> no. president trump is right that most europeans are not paying much. they're supposed a floor of 2% gross domestic product on defense spending. 20 of 28 countries

it was built to divide europe, to keep people in and ideas out. in face of the division, nato allies stood united, in the face of freedom, democracy and human dignity. in 1989, the wall was brought down by peaceful protests, by popular movements, and by the bravery of countless men and women across central and eastern europe. each day, all those who will enter this building will pass this memorial. they will understand that freedom will never be defeated and that nato will always defend the values on which our reliance is founded. so, chancellor merkel, you were in berlin the very night when the wall came down, and therefore, it's a great honor to welcome you here to brussels, to the new nato headquarters, and the floor is yours. peace. >> translator: your majesty, secretary-general, dear colleagues, nato's new headquarters will be the future point of reference of nato. the modern building like the building of this headquarters is a reference to the future. however, if we are to find convincing answers for the future, it is good to remind ourselve

louis was supposed to go back to europe with american passengers on the cruise to europe. but of course in the passengers are going back. you can imagine what the atmosphere is on board at this point. it is not the same atmosphere as the first journey to cuba and all the newspapers are very much afraid of a mutiny on board. this is not exactly what the captain is afraid of. there are suicides on board because a lot of people don't want to go back to germany. the ones that were already in concentration camps cannot go back to germany. point the negotiations in cuba have failed so it is completely over. the american jewish joint istribution committee represented. he has very little time to negotiate with some countries in europe. those four countries are france, belgium, the netherlands and the u.k. it is difficult for those countries. i'm not talking about the u.k. of the countries that border germany that are close to germany because they already received the letter refugees across the border both legal and , illegal refugees. they have already accepted a lot of them. at s

trump is striving out of europe. so europe needs to gain new strengths. and showing will to deal with russia on the major topics on the world's agenda. sarah: we will see that will indeed be possible with so many questions about possible shifting analysis -- shifting alliances. thank you so much. one week after the manchester arena bombing, british police are appealing to the public for clues about the suicide bomber who carried out the attack. they have released an image of salman abedi with a blue suitcase in an effort to re-create his movement in the days before the attack. police believe he had the suitcase with him at two locations in manchester. the suitcase was not used in the attack. 22 people were killed in that attack. 14 people are currently detained in connection. as the search for accomplices goes on, britain's mi-5 is probing why they fail to stop the alleged attacker. he was known to authorities in much the way that berlin's truck attacker was known to police here. have a look. reporter: a week after the terror attack in manchester, rates a

the second big theme put forward is the identity of europe. we have an identity of europe. we have an identity which cannot be compared with the rest of the world. we have experienced crisis and civil wars, we need to take a lesson in all of this to avoid war coming back and division, and keep the unity of this europe. when we see liberal democracies growing up in eastern europe, we see in northern europe also this. a feeling of fear for the future, as well as in the south part of europe. that is why he is putting forward the idea of a new method of having democratic convention, putting forward concrete projects. in order to better the people. it is a fantastic feeling, to see a young president being courageous enough to have been campaigning for months about an open europe. that was not something obvious. it was something that needed courage. facing marine le pen who was saying every day that europe is the problem for france. i think that is something which needs to be really put forward. secondly, he has been defending european values. 0ur republican values. 0n the theme

give us an idea ofjust how low this might put us—europe, uk—europe relations? think about back to 2002, when gerhard schroder was re—elected prime minister of germany in no small part because he ran against, at that point, the prospect of the us and un invading iraq. despite a lot of high tension and accusations by hte us about old europe and so on, no one ever questioned whether nato was going to continue as a viable alliance. what we are talking about now is clearly something, a much deeperfissure, in that sense. it might be papered over going forward. certainly there are elements of the trump administration that clearly want to indicate commitment to article five and want go forward in terms of nato, but the fact that president trump is clearly somewhat truculent on this issue and also the fact that he has demonstrated a clear reluctance to adhere to the paris climate change treaty, and has given pretty strong hints that he is going to pull out of that treaty this week, suggests that merkel is almost pre—empting trump's move away from sort of western lib

it seems populism has been rejected by in large in europe. >> we've been invested in europe for the past ten years. having a presence here is increasing local knowledge. it's important as we continue to grow. also increases exponentially the pool of talent that we can recruit in asset classes. and finally a lot of our peer or competitors are based here, either onhe continent or mostly here in london. it's not only a competitive advantage to have an office here, not to make sure that we're at a competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis our peers. >> when we talk about your investment allocation, you have a strong focus on infrastructure. 47% of your capital allocation in europe is on infrastructure and pe. something else we saw in pe is the industry sitting on a lot of dry powder, record dry powder. that's because there are not that many compelling assets to envest in. are you still finding that? >> i've been doing this for a long time now. i've heard this element of a lot of capital chasing too few deals. i think where it starts to be worrisome is when we see our partners in the private equity

growth is picking up in europe. let's say europe is recovering. it is better. there is a need. -- there is a need for funding. a bank needs to be in good shape to finance growth and job creation, much needed in europe. that is the reason why the discussion at the basal committee is so important. we understand there is a need for a judgment. i have no difficulty with this, but i hope to the conclusion we will be such that we will keep the capacity to finance the europe economy in a safeway. now you have a second question you have raised comparing to the u.s. in the u.s., they speak about deregulation. in europe, we do not speak about more regulation, but more stable regulation, not less. we do not know yet what is going to happen in the u.s. i think we need time to understand. now, there are a few sensitive points for which i think there is a need of specific monitoring. i will take an example for you. it is deregulation under new regulations on trading books, both in europe and the u.s. i hear different mindsets. in new york, i hear that maybe they will not mov

guy: more europe. is that a good thing? >> more europe but a redefined europe. we have a politician who clearly understands that as you were implying too much europe is an issue but redefining europe and getting more focus, what is good for europe is needed. otherwise, the alternative is that the anti-immigration voices, the inability to have europe stay together as one unit, but we are at all times under the pressure over the immigration. i think the deal we struck in europe is not strong enough to survive long-term. we need to find europe. not necessarily more europe but a better europe in terms over the able to navigate. guy: france what is a problem that needs to be dealt with. that was one of the major jobs. >> that's the labor market reform. we have to have a stronger labor market reform. what is interesting is that the french unions is lagging behind -- so in denmark we have what is perceived to be the best labor market. today we have the metals union, it has been the most progressive union. they are more progressive than the employees union because they

there are a lot of good reasons for the exit, because for the metals are improving in europe and -- europe. mezzo not moving a lot in that shot. met usually moves a little bit. to be honest, he may be a little frozen there. not matt, but the shot maybe frozen. the data is certainly improving, but as you point out, we are seeing this in the state as well, the pc ease remaining kind sideways, yet the implement this coming down sharply. certainly the delta on that is picking up. when we think about the danger of the ecb, is there a danger become or remain to focus on inflation? there are a bunch of other factors impacting inflation at the moment about what's going on in terms of other factors. is there a danger we look at the wrong thing? thehe ecb mandate, one of core principles, is to focus on inflation. that's not likely to change soon. let's not forget, policymakers can make changes quickly to policies changing incidence rates, asset purchases, etc.. but the economy is a slow-moving beast. whether it's inflation, growth, on appointment, it takes time. so there's an element of patients tha

this is bloomberg. ♪ 8 and in europe it is victory in europe day. whether it was winston churchill , the celebration in france, it was a day of huge commotion in 1945. guy: in some ways very meaningful in the way the language has been used, talking about europe and the restart of the european project. tom: we will touch more on this. we welcome all of you worldwide. for a quickly, final thoughts of pascale auclair. what will you be buying tomorrow morning? i believe you are closed today. where is your enthusiasm for the markets? pascale: markets are open today. it is probably not the exact good market timing to be very bullish on what has rallied so much in the recent days, but on the long-term view, our asset allocation is really focused on european equities, equities in general, european equities mainly, with diversification on emerging-market equities. bonds very cautious on generally. guy: people talking about europe now talk about the political risk being removed. do you buy france or do you buy elsewhere in europe? is the momentum better elsew

does that mean building more in europe? if trump goes down this tariff folly.t is a fixed of >> you mentioned one of the there is a threat of this, but the delivery is thething we will see and relationship between president trump and prime minister abe is going from strength to strength. the domestic gross accelerated. >> you see the animal spirits power and hee in and don't rely on the united states of america. there are all sorts of things that may or may not be happening. they will have to get the employment growth and the structure of reforms growing. they want to reinvest in europe and this is something you don't normally see. share yourlove to optimism. fear of brexit. that is the brink of bankruptcy out one country and it did not change their ways. >> you have put your finger on the polls here and merkel is playing her cards well. she says they will have to do and she saysir own that she is the pragmatist and not the populist. that is the leadership and means to invest. just recall that wisdom tree. up next, we will

what is happening in europe? for years, europe has had an open border policy, free to travel without a visa. add to that, and extremely liberal immigration policy. in germany alone, angela merkel is allowing a million syrian refugees into the country. check out the pictures and you seem mostly young men flooding into germany, potentially an army of jihadists, free to move throughout europe. that's an insane immigration policy. here at home, trump is trying to limit the potential terrorists from entering the united states. it's not a muslim ban. it's a ban on a country of origin, a moratorium, actually. after all, there is no doubt. many of them hate us. no doubt many of them may even want to kill us. wake up, america. wake up, liberals. and wake up, ninth circuit court judges while you fight trump over political correctness. you make us less safe in america. radical islamic terrorists are plotting ways to get to america and carry out their jihad. once they are here, they are here. we cannot let them in order terr

where do you place europe? >> not necessarily in the first place because of course, the main winners would be in asia. but europe is one of the big blocks in the world. clearly, the game is between europe and the u.s. if the u.s. keeps distance, europe will jump on this. rkets again, very quiet today. we will continue to look at them and their correlations. helping us will be carl weinberg. he has been nothing short of a miracle on japan. we will also discuss china and mr. trump with carl weinberg. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we have come to the conclusion that the agreement needs to be extended. we will not reach the desired inventory levels by the end of june. therefore, we also came to the -- itsion that ending by will be better at the end of the first quarter, 2018. francine: that is saudi arabia's energy minister, khalid al-falih . russia and saudi arabia favor through the end of the first quarter of 2018. kennedy, what does this actually mean? even if they cut production and extend the output

it certainly would it be to europe. it certainly would be the ireland because your livestock producers would be killed by that. so much of their trade is with the uk and if, as i understand it, you averted to a wto rules and ta riffs it, you averted to a wto rules and tariffs on meat exports ireland's industry would be decimated. and also looking beyond trading terms of politics. no deal in the event of there being nuclear withdrawalfrom there being nuclear withdrawalfrom the talks, what happens to uk citizens in their millions? what happens to be citizens in their hundreds of thousands enjoying life and the benefits of the uk? to my mind, a walk out is a difficulty that would not result in a settle m e nt that would not result in a settlement and that the worst of all options and that's why again i have just as the need of all parties to ensure that the process commences in an orderly way, with a set agenda. and from the irish perspective, one of our priorities must be that there is as close as possible relationship be

and europe. i asked her what is your objection and she said it would mean we would introduce unhygienic american products into europe. trade by definition means shifting cultures and this anxiety about unhygienic american products is very telling. that's the first one. the second plank is a feeling of collective grievance and desire for national recognition. trump -ism is defined by grievances against bankers, mexican, chinese and so on. ironically in europe it's the u.s. who is the bogie for these types of movements. folks who oppose the tip will say american products are on hygienic or we will have genetically modified american food and similar phobias. or take alexander to gai -- vladimir putin stop philosopher. for him liberalism is another form of invasive universalism that threatens russia and america is at its head. they described america as the kingdom of the antichrist that should be destroyed and will be destroyed. when i interviewed him he said liberalism is totalitarianism. with trump

peter, what is your expectation in europe? we have countries with differing expectations but first of all, are we measuring right? >> good question. probably not. given the data at our disposal, we have all sorts of questions on inflation. and we got the right prices? all of those kinds of things. i tend to take the numbers at face value because we don't have time to sit down and worry about measuring correctly. but i agree with the point that inflation across europe and across many parts of the world is likely to remain for the course of the next few years. i wonder at the extent to which technology has put downward pressure on inflation. we are buying more online. dynamics whenhe it came to looking at macroeconomics. francine: do you invest linked to inflation? >> we have to worry about real rates and returns. all of our forecast inflation and justice and we have to consider bonds and equities through the real return. i would make to a division's. -- make two observations. one is we had a way that can't make any sense of low

are you seeing a pick up in growth in europe? >> europe is growing. uk we seexceeded 2 million. germany 2 million. italy is coming up stronger, 1 million. france is picking up. they learn the value for money for cruising. spain as well. overall we have seen huge growth. it's becoming a global business. like i said, it's an alternative to any vacation. the biggest publicity is word of mouth. people coming back can say what a great experience what a great cruise that was. >> one of the biggest impediments to the cruise business is closed borders. under president trump we're potentially looking at that. how big of a problem has that been and will it be going forward? >> we distribute as msc basically globally. we have offices in 48 countries. we see people love to come to europe. they have issues with visas as well. there are issues with freedom of traveling already in the global world. but people find the comfort, the security, the exploration, visiting new continents by cruising. we think that america, to be exact, whatever trump is trying to achieve will not really affect cruisi

and europe is drifting apart. she said that europe must plot its own course. andrew barton said this is a watershed comment from the german chancellor. merkel's spokesman speaking to reporters in berlin. merkel considers it necessary to address the g7 differences. there clearly were differences, usually six versus one, the one being president trump. other comments are from the ecb's ewald nowotny. he is speaking to reporters in vienna. he says we are seeing positive news on growth and he says he expects more wage dynamics once the upswing is consolidated. it comes ahead of the ecb's meeting next thursday. he says we shouldn't speculate about the outcome of the june meeting. great things are expected next thursday. maybe a change in the rhetoric from the central bank. gold is holding near three-week highs, growing uncertainty over the looming u.k. election after a poll shows the conservative's lead narrowed. let's get back to michael purves. .nders corr michael, you won't be able to see this chart, but it is a wonderful chart by our wonderful queen of charts, h

europe's --in easing europe's migrant crisis will be one of the big challenges facing the new president. today, 200 people drowned as another boat sank on the way to europe from libya. they found a smuggler hiding among the refugees. reporter: exhausted, refugees are brought to shore after a dangerous journey. they're among 7500 people rescued in the mediterranean in the past five days. many others are feared dead. >> we're still trying to get more information. we will see if there are survivors of this incident. this tragedy brings the total number of people dead from the beginning of the year to more than 1150. libya's: separately, coast guard picked up survivors over the weekend. they said they had been on a boat packed with 150 people. babies, washedng up on the libyan beach. people fleeing war and poverty pay a high price and risk of their lives. >> so heavy. and materials. reporter: migrant arrivals to italy by cr up nearly 30% this -- by sea are up 30% this year. syrians are among the increase in refugees. making35 migrants dangerous european crossings doesn't come out alive from

a leading stock in europe. -- a laughingstock in europe. a rocky start to the week for president donald trump, dealing departure and questions over his son-in-law's connection to russian businesses. another shrugging off day today. euro area economic confidence falling for the first time this year. how the numbers will impact their next decision for these three presidents. mario draghi.

we have bankers and sales people all across europe. continuing to engage with europe is important for us. i think, just like having to set up holding companies and the united states, the european union is going to require us to set up structures across europe that make it more robust and more -- and reithin the fo of europe. erik: you know what i am getting at. does the hardness of brexit determine the impact of a bank like barclays? >> you know, there could be decisions taken that might not be in the best interest of the free flow of capital, but one of if tenants -- you know, there are a couple of things that came out of the financial crisis as a positive, one is the coronation of the g-20. one of the things the g-20 stuck to that we regulate the financial institution. --'s not put of the areas let's not put up barriers to free flow capital. london will remain a very important source of capital for continental europe. erik: relative to some of your peers on the subject, you are an optimist. at least you are constructed. what is the u

old europe. host: we can show our viewers the "washington times" shows the united states paying about 3.6% of g.d.p., greece 3.3,. u.k. 2.2. estonia 2.1. france 1.7. turkey, norway, lithuania, romania, latvia all below 2%. do the numbers need to go up and if so are they capable of doing it? is it realistic? guest: if greece can pay more than 2% i would certainly think italy, spain, and france can do it. we are protecting them. nato is protecting them. they owe the rest of the european nations and the united states an obligation to do their fair share. host: the president is also wanting to ask nato to step up in the fight against isis. is that the role of nato? guest: that's a little more complicated. that's up to the president to decide how he wants to try to move nato. i know nato was very successful in the breakdown of the former yugoslavia, bosnian-serbian war so maybe there is a role for them, but really in the middle east it's more important that the people over there provide the boots on t

saloon fort chance europe? >> i think the key is that europe and the euro have to work for the majority of the people. lost -- ite le pen has been clear to anyone is a far this that it from functional economic zone. and that major steps have to be taken in the right direction. in particular, the quid pro quo between france and germany will ability to macron's deliver reforms and on the german side, hopefully moving away from policies that are too austere. and on the european commission's side -- macron was quite critical of the eu saying it has been left in the hands of the technocrats and accountants for 20 years. and that the vision needs to be brought back to the project. hopefully, they will be able to deliver this. manus: the fact that the german alliance will be resolutely reinstated. merkel will be quite happy if she gets through in the autumn. the daily machinations. take us forward in a broader context. financials are desperate for a normalization or an indication of when normalization will comfort loo

is there a justification of putting money into europe -- in europe? charley: it is a residual. if you consider that the u.s. has been performing, therefore europe is underperforming. america is this the fat guy on a suit on a seesaw. you have emerging markets, japan altogether. when the guy gets offer on, it must happen. people forget the residual is quite important. the dollar has been softening, other crowd -- currencies have been doing quite well. that explains european outperformance. anyone who is high-margin and that sort of thing. you can group these companies together and europe has been strong on the high-end industrial side, less on the.com and software tech companies. that is how it is. the money is flowing back because the dollar is at a temporary peak. guy: this is another chart. the white line is the spread between bunds and treasuries. it willa rate trade, continue to be a rate trade. what happens if we start to see doesed story unwinding, the euro rocket higher? charley: it does. the same chart for the pound and you can take these things back very -- many years.

, and youngest population in europe. well, you know what you offer them, we all know what you offer them, a 12.5% corporate tax rate. donald trump is now saying he wants to cut corporate taxes in the us to 15%. your crucial competitive edge which has driven the irish economic recovery since the meltdown crash of 2008 and is being taken away from you. no. 0ur competitive edge on our eu colleagues and others is not exclusively or merely in the area of taxation. it is the adaptability of our workforce and the skills of the workforce. dublin is repeatedly voted among the top european... you may think that, minister, but look at... the record speaks for itself. the record could be looked at in different ways. look at the legal case in europe about apple and the way in which ireland taxed apple, one of the most successful corporations in the world. you know, you let apple put their profits in this country, and you taxed them at a rate that was less than 1%, much less than 1%. and the eu said this is not acceptable. the wind ha

it's europe investing in europe. that investment, i think, is effectively agnostic to what the ecb is doing from its easing perspective. >> talk to me about some sectors attracting most investment. you point at software and business services being strong? >> this is a fascinating area. if you look at technology, the silicon valley took the lead. where there's an opportunity in europe is the internet of things, the industrialization of businesses. with europe, on a mannering base, we're seeing a growth in investments into technology, into digitalization of europe's manufacturing area. that's a real opportunity for europe to take a leadership role. that sector, 25% of all fdi is in business and software technology. >> you say europe's workshop is the area. >> we're seeing the classic blue collar work is heading there. >> finally i'm just very curious about what will happen to china given all these regulations, the restrictions when it comes to fdi, outbound m&a, and those restrictions have been in place since the end o

that western europe and western europe is under a lot of pressure. allies from wars, fasci fascism -- and our allies are going to join the -- a lot of pressure. right, let's go to jim scroggins, texas, jim, good morning. good morning. my thoughts are rather kind of scattered, but what it really comes down to is we need the united nations. somebody doesn't pay their dues, do you kick them out of the union? talk to them. you kind of try to convince them that it is for their own benefit to be part of it. friends an't trump make with our friends and keep our enemies?ur what kind of psychology is this, make friends of your enemies and alienate your it is ridiculous. host: what about president tweet this morning bringing up germany and u.s.-nato alliances, he said, we massive trade deficit with germany, they paid less than should, bad for the united states, this will change, he romised in the tweet this morning. caller: am i still on? host: yes, sir. caller: okay. is just wonderful, worry that g is, i e aren't safe if we can't have -- ody else besides late

exodus: ourjourney to europe. this is the story about people who travelled for europe.|j is the story about people who travelled for europe. i survived schillings, isis, basharal—assad, the sea. i survived everything. —— shelling. the prosecutors. we are talking over half £1 million in cash. the difficulty here is that even though we have 20 sets of cctv, there is no way to identify anybody on that cctv footage. what we will say is that it was not me. —— what they will say is that was not me. to be honest, i see myself as a real boy, but they do want to be a real, real boy. i often go to london, where they go down with my situation. although i just where they go down with my situation. although ijust want it now. and the bafta goes to exodus: ourjourney to europe. that is great. i would just like to quickly thank bafta and he became we had making exodus: ourjourney to europe. and bbc for being so supportive during the process of this film. but i would like to mainly thank the courage of the contributors to share their stories. ido want contributors to share t

how will europe's biggest -- how are europe's biggest banks positioning themselves after the emmanuel macron win in france? find out why he says europe is still on a rocky road. we will look at india's new push for financial reform with the head of one of the nation's biggest states. -- be a bigggie opportunity for investors? we will have a look at where european equities are trading, right now. gmm is your function. equities are rising and the stoxx 600 gaining for a third day. all these currencies are falling against the dollar. the euro continuing its slide after mccrone -- macron won the election. eon droppingility 20% on rebounding power and gas costs in germany. a nuclear reactor that is off-line after halting in early february. shares are up 4% and you might ask why. underlying full-year earnings target. it has adjusted -- it's adjusted net income is on track after one-off factors dented earnings in the first. shares up by 4%. they world's biggest reinsurer, unit three shares down by 1.7%. first-quarter net income rose by 29%, missing estimates, surging stock markets, driv

is the fault of europe because europe can't handle the fact that turkey is a muslim country. we need to remember how the relationships collapsed, going back ten years. i do criticise the turkish government forfailing to fulfil eu criteria. we needed those reforms. primarily, in order to improve our immature and wobbly democracy. it was going to be good for turkey's future and for turkey's civil society as well, but i also criticised some of the politicians, particularly to make it more clear, populist politicians, within europe, continental europe, especially in france at the time of sarkozy, who used turkey at the time as the fear card in their own electoral campaigns. what they did was quite short—sighted and what we need to understand is ever since the eu became more distanced from turkey, this directly worked into the hands of isolationists in turkey, and who are those? they are the nationalists, they are the islamists, and they are the ones who want a more authoritarian regime. so turkey became more and more enclosed. it is very sad that years and years ago, public opi

what does that mean for europe? number one, it will bring europe closer together. the second thing, it means m will increase around the world. the u.s. media covering president trump's for trip abroad -- foreign trip abroad, the body language, what it could mean for europe and the rest of the world, is the media focusing on what mr. trump goes back home to? tom: they are completely focused on what he goes back to. lit yesterday afternoon. over the president's behavior at the nato meetings. underk this stuff is way played in europe. everyone is trying to do nice-nice. ofin cirilli is at the heart the matter. this is front and center in washington, and will be withssed when he gets home what we saw yesterday. we will continue with john fendi and his books on french and china. virginie maisonneuve will be with us as well. linkage of international relations and economics. this is bloomberg. stay with us. ♪ francine: "bloomberg surveillance" with francine lacqua from london and tom keene from new york. let's talk about the election campaigning resuming today after pau

europe is their first destination. caroline: snapchat did not have that much international presence. we have been talking about this country old day. carson block has said potentially this would be a short. they were 13% presence in europe, 8% rest of the world. they are outliers when they have werethey are outliers when they have less international presence that still can come to the market and ipo successfully? ilya: they fast followed with opening an office in london which i thought was a great move. overall has been a good story. lots of it in the news but still a very strong performance. so, i think you will see companies like that that have more potential to try to catch up quickly. caroline: what is interesting is you are saying, go to europe. this is where you are seeing the statistics weigh out, their dominant revenue stream comes from europe. why not asia? why not the growth oriented part of the world? ilya: asia is an amazing market. lots of big companies there. we think asia is a great destination. but what

he says together with germany, he will mold a new europe. who is more suitable? the cannot be any alliance between france and germany because the german economy is hitting the french economy very hard by our exports, and macron made very clear that he will address the issue of german export surpluses, and also the spd thinks having export surpluses is a very good idea, so macron will clash with any politician that comes from germany, no matter if it is schulz or merkel. anna: i think what we saw in the past days was actually quite hopeful. started to macron govern and even before we know who is going to govern germany after 2017, some of the most critical points were sort of swept off the table. charlotte -- charlotte -- schauble, the minister of finance in germany, said they want a minister with a known budget, which is something the french have in their program for the european union. on the other side, macron said while he does not insist on euro bonds or for the communal is asian of debt in europe, so i guess the tandem actually could work out, and i think it

for one person's increase in europe, it's increased to over 2.5% compared only 1% in europe. clearly, the political risk has been off. we're not seeing that as a big factor, but growth is the real story. as we look back to 1990, only numbers of 1.4%. bo growth has to come back. >> i'm just looking at bank of america merrill lynch numbers, they're saying allocations years on equity is the third highest on record. do you think, mannish, that europe can deliver this time? >> i would say for me, i'm more equal with europe. i think one has questions about what's coming down the line. in france, we still have the partial meant tear election remaining. and elections in austria. and there are signs elections going down the road in italy. and then the risk. but at no point under rating the past. >> how do you feel about the u.s.? with much. trump trade that was left in the market, now, we're seemingly back to square one. we're back to the levels we were at november before trump was elected president. what do you do with the markets now? do you still hope the inflation trade will come

we are continuing to engage with europe. it is born for us, it is important for europe. int like having to set up the united states, continuing investment banking in the u.s., the european union will require us to set up structures across more robustke it and more within the fold of europe. >> you know what i'm getting at. does e rdness of brexit determine how great the impact is? jes: there could be decisions taken that might not be in the best interest of the free flow of capital. but i think one of the tenants -- if there were a couple of things that came out of the financial crisis as a positive, one is the coordination of the g-20. one thing that the g-20 step two is that as we, let's not inhibit by putting up barriers, the free flow of capital. so long as those barriers are not put up, they will be worked around brexit so that london will remain an important source of capital for continental europe. erik: relative to some of the peers, on the subject, you're an optimist. at least you are constructive. what is the upside to be optimistic? what gives you that degree

we will also see stronger data out of europe. there's no problem for the rest of this year, but moving into the italian election next year, there is a very strong anti-european sentiment. there's more problems ahead. the british exit is a countdown that is happening now with problems that will only be solved in the 12th hour. there is mobile liquidity ahead over the next two years at least for europe. that is going to be a rocky road. reporter: you talked about the is muchity that brexit more than a risk to just the u.k., it's a risk to all of europe, potentially, that could hurt the economy and global markets. what is the chance of that and how would that have been? >> markets are really not good at pricing binary events. brexit.ld be a hard the british government wants to have influence over immigration. it's not part of the common market. they want trade agreements with the rest of the world. that is the definition of a hard brexit. there's very little on the continental europeans side that would be coming forward to accommoda

europe is going to be weaker. weaker diplomatically, in a military sense, it will be small, economically. will join the net contribution -- will lose the net contribution to the budget. how much do you think you will andy up paying -- end up paying? is there a figure? the 100ll i know is billion -- even the 50 billion or 60 billion, there is a whistle for that. we don't know if there will be continuing annual contribution. of aneeds to be traded off 60, a divorced amount. next up, we are going to discuss the impact of president trump's policies on europe. ♪ bloombergve from world headquarters, i am vonnie quinn. mark: let's turn our attention to the policies of donald trump. the with us, roger bootle. he did not lose his job in the last 20 minutes. apologies for that. trump. discuss. rather than throwing a question at you, i am going to say trump, discuss. proved to berk has worse than his bite. it shows the strength of the american system, how difficult it is for a president to get things through. it is his sty

>> as she noted before, the wave so far this year has crested in europe europe, in austria in, netherlands, now in france. the la pen type party, all of which have fallen short. and afd has lost a great deal of support in polling. but i think this election just underscores how politics across the west is being reoriented around a new fault line. you see in paris a coalition of transformation in which you have a co lalition of voters, white collar, who are essentially comfortable with a more globalized integrated diverse world. then you have on all fronts whether it was donald trump here in the u.s. or brexit in the uko la pen, you have a coalition that's mostly nonurban and that is uneasy about demographic, cultural and economic change. you feel that they're being left behind or slighted. this is is the fault line. in the first round of voting. la pen won less than 5% of the vote in paris. we'll see the final numbers, but i assume it's going to be very low again. this is where we are seeing our politics divide certainly here in the u.s. this was the fault line in this election. it is incre

you say globalisation is too hard for us, so is europe. let's shut our borders, leave the euro because others succeed, not us. the atmosphere got heated. "i treat the french like adults," mr macron told his opponent. "you lie all the time." then each was asked about terrorism. translation: the safety of our people, the fight against terror and islamist extremism, you don't want to take it on and i know why. against terrorism, we have to close our borders straightaway, immediately, and that's what i'll do the moment i take power. translation: closing borders achieves nothing. there are many countries outside the schengen area that have been hit as hard as this by terrorist attacks, and since 2015 we have put back border controls to fight terrorism. in this debate the french people have heard two very different visions. now they have to pick a side. let's have a quick look at some of the front pages. the i leads with theresa may accusing european politicians of making threats against britain to try to influence the general election result. t

how low could this put us — europe, uk— europe relations? think about back to 202, -- 2002, the europe relations? think about back to 202, —— 2002, the chancellor then was elected in part because he went against the us invading iraq. despite high tension and accusations, no one ever questioned whether nato was going to continue asa whether nato was going to continue as a viable alliance. what we are talking about now is clearly a deep fish in that sense. it might be papered over going forward, there are elements of the trump administration, who want to commit to article five and go forward with nato but the fact that president trump is truculent on this issue and the fact he has demonstrated that clear reluctance to adhere to the paris climate agreement and that he made pullout of the treaty this week, suggest that merkel is pre—empting this move away from western liberal internationalism. thank you very much. british airways passengers have suffered a second day of chaos and disruption, as the airline struggled to restore service foll

we need the closest possible collaboration in europe. the extent to which britain will continue to have access to it is rather dependent upon and depends upon the outcome of the negotiations. that sounds somewhat like to read the may when she presented that article 50 letter to her colleagues in europe saying this, "in security terms, a failure to reach an agreement will mean oui’ failure to reach an agreement will mean our ability to fight against crime and terror will be weakened." —— theresa may. many in europe thought that was a form of blackmail and you seem to be playing the same game. you‘re didn‘t read the letter that way and i‘m not sure most of those in britain and read it that way ——. those in britain and read it that way --. she was steeply stating the reality that co—operation in europe is growing because of cross—border threats —— she was simply stating. evenif threats —— she was simply stating. even if you couldn‘t get a trade agreement or anything else, why are you conflating and putting the