yellen, warsh, cohen, or powell. oksana: warsh. george: warsh. george: warsh. luke: kevin warsh. jonathan: i'm surprised at the consensus around kevin warsh here. ok guys, final question. this one will be fun and difficult, because you have to pick one of these. catalonia or spain with a similar maturity. i'm going to pick out 2020. i could tell you the spread is about 300 basis points. which one do you hold through 2020? catalonia or spain? oksana: not touching that one. [laughter] george: i'm off-line on that one, too. jonathan: luke, you have to give me one. luke: you would have to go with spain. jonathan: there we go, we really appreciate your time. oksana staying out of trouble alongside george and luke hickmore at aberdeen standard investments. from new york, that does it for us. we will see you next friday at 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. until next time, have a great weekend. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ .. .. so we need tablets installed... with the menu app ready to roll. in 12 weeks. yeah. ♪ ♪ the world of fast food is being changed by faster net

i'll give you the positive for warsh which i just did. a family connection, a friendship connection. warsh is pretty much of a hard -- not a hard-liner on monetary policy but clearly not a dove. trump likes janet yellen, the current fed chairwoman. he likes the fact she's for easy money, and that's something that donald trump has said for a long time, i like easy money. he apparently likes the policies of jerome powell who's also for easy money, also for less regulation. remember yellen likes dodd-frank which trump vowed to dismember or reform dramatically. so the thinking was up until now, even the i mentioned warsh as a leading candidate a couple of days ago that trump has been saying nice things about yellen lately and nice things about powell and from a policy standpoint seems more simpatico. here's the thing with donald trump. you don't know. the only thing i knew back for a while here is that it wasn't going to going to going to going to be cohn, wants to focus on tax reform. once tax reform is done nor the done, does cohn stay with

warsh has made no secret. he is not happy with current fed policy. >> changes are in order in how the fed organizes itself, conducts its business, deliberates policy choices and makes its decisions. the existing governance structure reinforces a group think. it places the fed at considerable institutional risk when the next crisis strikes and it makes the next crisis more likely to be harmful. >> digging into his record here, here's just some of thing it's called it warsh versus the fed. he thinks the fed should have exited low rates and focuses too much on decimal points and not whole numbers when it comes to things like inflation targets. moves too much by the latest economic data and too concerned with market reactions. warsh is fond of blasting the fed in how it would with alter or fix current policy. he's been blasted summers called an article in the "the wall street journal," quote the single most confusing analysis of policy i have ever read this year, guys. >> a sting. >> summer's is not alone in criti

oksana: warsh. george: warsh. luke: kevin warsh. jonathan: i am surprised at the consensus. this one will be fine and difficult. pick one of these. with aia for spain similar maturity. i will pick up 2020. the spread is about 300 basis points. which one do you hold through 2020? catalonia or spain? oksana: not touching that one. george: i'm off-line on that one. jonathan: give me one. luke: you would have to go with spain. jonathan: we really appreciate your time. staying out of trouble alongside george and luke hickmore. from new york, that doesn't for us. we will see you next friday at 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. have a great weekend. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ is this a phone? or a little internet machine? it makes you wonder: shouldn't we get our phones and internet from the same company? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. ca

kevin warsh whose star is said to have faded. my reporting was that his star was never that high. 21%. and gary cohn, once the shoe-in for the job, down at single digits, 6% these odds reflect the latest media headlines. i think they're kind of worthless and not adding a lot of new information it's harder, but maybe a more informative way to do it is puzzle through who wants what and who is whispering in the president's ear. president trump would appear to want low rates and high stocks those are pro yellen and powell ideas. pro deregulation which is leg yellen and maybe powell, taylor and warsh are the candidates for that the gop congress, they would be not yellen, though powell, taylor and warsh would come in and they want a rules-based monetary policy that would favor taylor democrats in congress would want dodd-frank, they want yellen in that regard. and they favor current policy framework. they said the key point concerning the turnover in fed personnel is not whether the new board members are hawks or dovs but rather they'l

president trump meeting with two candidates last week, including cnbc survey front-runner kevin warsh, senior economics reporter steve liesman has been doing some digging and finds mr. warsh would bring controversial opinions to the fed. >> food to the fed, you guys are really on top of it. >> people talking about kevin warsh would be to the fed what betsy devos is to the department of education or scott pruitt to the epa, an agency head in direct contradiction with the administration warsh reported as being a top candidate. >> changes are in order in how the fed organizes itself, conducts its business and deliberates policy choices the existing governing structure enforces a group think and places the fed at considerable institutional risk when the next crisis strikes and makes the next crisis more likely to be harmful. >> here's an encapsulation of some of the thoughts from kevin warsh. one is the fed should have exited low rates and the big balance sheets long ago. he focuses too much on decimal points when it comes to inflation ranges and he wants the fed to focus on whole numbers

oksana: warsh. george: warsh. luke: kevin warsh. jonathan: i am surprised at the consensus. this one will be fine and difficult. pick one of these. catalonia for spain with a similar maturity. i will pick up 2020. the spread is about 300 basis points. which one do you hold through 2020? catalonia or spain? oksana: not touching that one. george: i'm off-line on that one. jonathan: give me one. luke: you would have to go with spain. jonathan: we really appreciate your time. oksana staying out of trouble alongside george and luke hickmore. from new york, that doesn't for us. we will see you next friday at 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. have a great weekend. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ >>, hello. they don't fly much higher than if bush are sick, the cofounder of -- they don't fly much higher the ceo -- founder of lecharcyzyk,an b today's highflyer. ♪ nathan always knew he wanted to be something. 2008ompany he started in is now valued at more than $36 billion. achieve strategy officer at airbnb, from the company's san francisco headquarters, the company t

and kevin warsh was not really high on the list. it turns out kevin met with mike pence on the same day that trump met with yellen, thursday of last week. betting,also apparently and we have been getting an idea that john taylor is favored by conservative republicans that change direction. kevin warsh is also in that can't as someone who would change direction. furthermore, the wall street journal story points out that back in 2012 when j powell was first nominated for board of governors, 21 republicans voted against him, and in 2014 when he got his own turn to be on the board, 24 voted against him. more of a race to the extent that donald trump will listen to his own vice president and listen to other conservative republicans. one thing we know for sure is he said he would make this pic by november 3 because that's when he's leaving for asia. on high alert waiting to see what happens. like we're like that every single day. there is so much debate about john taylor and how hawkish of the fed chairman he could be. that situationin as

, it's warsh, i'll get it before he will, he's a pretty vocal hawk. the president talks about liked low interest rates now when he was candidate trump, it was a whole different story. >> of all the reversals, he was so critical of the fed, he was so critical of the approach to the fed. if anything, this is all about having continuity. >> there's a difference between r a candidate -- >> because taylor would be -- >> taylor is a regimented guy, may be a good thing, but not the guy -- >> doesn't matter. >> you saw the market react when powell was rumored to be announced. the market spiked up immediately. the market would welcome it. it has to be powell. >> it doesn't have to be anybody. the market will care for seven minutes. anybody who is on that list knows that he wants low interest rates. he's telegraphed it. the world knows, they know i don't care how hawkish they are right now or they think they are. >> it's about the pace of the way they -- >> do you think the pace -- it doesn't matter who he picks. it doesn't matter. >> there are also a lot of ot

like warsh, powell is a lawyer and not an economist. david: perceived generally to be on the hawkish side. one of the questions, the six people who were mentioned, are any of them likely to be doves? jonathan: janet yellen has the reputation. powell has said most recently that with inflation low and growth at a moderate pace, they can afford to be patient. he doesn't define that, but he doesn't seem to be suggesting the fed is behind the kmb or eeds to ramp up their efforts. david: vincent with j.p. morgan, as you look at this, as the markets look at this right now, are they pricing anything with respect to the change in the leadership of the federal reserve? incent: at the moment, no. the future policy, janet yellen, it's quite fresh in the newsroom. you mentioned the name, you mentioned at the end of last week, but it would be very important, maybe more important to a person than to see whether indeed they're dovish. and i wouldn't say that i consider janet yellen as so dovish. so it would mean that she's somehow kind of behind the cu

kevin warsh a respectable fourth on both. gary cohn once thought as the front-runner below 5% on both of those. how will all this change monetary policy? what does it mean for interest rate we asked who would be more hawkish or dovish relative to existing policy. see over here this would be the more hawkish john taylor thought to be the most hawkish kevin warsh a little more. powell and cohn considered to be right around what existing policy would be. question is why does the market want yellen? three reasons, one, she has more experience than all the other combined on the fed. markets generally just don't like change. time l finally over on this side, it ain't broke. as far as most in the market are concerned, policy on a pace the way they like it they don't see a need for change, change agents represented by taylor and warsh. bill >> steve liesman there we got 26 minutes left in the trading session here on the floor the new york stock exchange with charles with rosenblatt securities. what do you guys talk about here regardi

he said he and warsh may disagree on some things but it was a good thing and stated he believed the fed would operate effectively in the future. tomorrow steve liesman will speak to boston fed president eric rosengren you can catch that interview tomorrow from 9:00 p.m. cet. >>> back to our fx discussion with john hardy. before the break you were talking about who will be the next fed chair that will be a huge driver for the u.s. dollar. what's your best bet at this point? we still read articles that janet yellen might stay in her chair. that wouldn't move the dollar too much >> like everyone else, we've been throwing around ideas on who it might be. to my mind, i don't see how yellen is reappointed. i don't think it sends a strong enough signal about change, especially the weak parting commentary commentary, if it does prove to be commentary, that the models are broken there's warsh, powell or cohn. among those i don't have a favorite i will wait and see. we have built in expectations if we're to believe what has been said about these three candidates on how the market reacts from doll

it looks like kevin warsh is the most likely contender. yelena: when you hear about it in the news, some names are floated and it increases the chances when somebody is mentioned in the news. i would say that the preference for low interest rates actually disqualifies some of those ,andidates such as kevin warsh because his preference, and he has been talking a lot about financial stability. i natural stability concerns would almost automatically mean higher interest rates, and this is not something president trump achievet if he wants to surface end growth in gdp. vonnie: stf financial came out with a note that said only fed governor powell has a -- tradable. is that true? yelena: i think he is next on the list after chair yellen. if she is disqualified because of her opposition to deregulation, which she clearly stated at jackson hole, i think jerome powell has probably the most qualifications to get the job. shery: how about pushback from republicans? conventional republicans like john taylor. how is he doing? yelena: i think low intere

much ae is not so potential republican insider as someone like kevin warsh. all the names are there. it is very interesting. we will know pretty soon who the next fed chair might be. this wild card twice as well. i have a funny feeling you will be talking about. it would be really out of left field. another hint would be financial crisis and bailout. he is a very much a newcomer to this position. neil has made it clear and has done lots of town halls. he would another essay saying the fed should not raise rates until they have gotten clearly to their target. until then, the fed should go cautiously. again, i think it might be one of the raps against him is that he is new to the fed and is one of the younger candidates. is this someone who will inspire the markets? importantvery consideration as well. that is who he thinks donald trump will pick. thank you so much for that. today, tom keene has a conversation with us and outgoing stanley fischer. see if markets are acting up. let's get a new york and join remy. is a getting translated to the asia-pacific marke

the question is whether or not warsh being the fed chair would mean higher rates. trump is also considering john taylor, really seen as a leading light in m. he has strongly advocated for the fed to follow rules for setting fed policy. fed officials oppose him, saying it takes away discretion during financial crises. the president says he likes and respects current fed chair janet yellen and she remains among the top five. but most believe the president wants his own person in the job. the president could face opposition from republicans who have been critical of the fed. still, yellen has more experience at the fed, as you can see here, than all of the other candidates combined. gary cohn, director of the national economic council, a top economic adviser to the president, was once a leading candidate but his odds fell almost to nothing after he criticized the president's response to the violence surrounding the charlottesville protest. the futures market gives him less than a 2% chance of being named fed chair. the markets rate the possibilities and try to price t

mark: adverse market reaction, if it is taylor versus warsh. let's say they are the candidates that can provide the most interesting market reaction, what market reaction are we talking about? david: warsh is a critical pick because he was critical of qe given that $4.5 trillion of liquidity into the system, people are as worried about that as they are the level of interest rates. the tinkering of interest rates, the market will accept more than if there was a view that we will unwind the balance sheet more significantly. one of the smartest things janet yellen has done is set the path with the caps for drawing down the quantitative easing program. that is presented as a fait chair,i to the next fed if it is not miss yellen. i would be more worried about warsh because the balance sheet has potential shock value more than just the level of the overnight interest rate. vonnie: where are you putting your money? under management, shifting it around? david: not enormous shifts. the asset allocator today has a real dilemma that the world offer some p

just over the past few weeks we talked about kevin warsh and those predicted markets. >> that would have been a bigger uncertainty. >> right all of that playing into the discussion as we talk about, we do see asian equities now closing on this friday. you can see they're green across the board. the nikkei in japan, up for a 14th straight day. this is the longest winning streak for the nikkei since 1961 it's an amazing run. we have elections, we'll talk about that later on. the hang seng up bay percent the shanghai up bay quarty a qu percent. we're seeing a bit of positivity on the heels of yesterday's big day for the u.s. markets the dax is up bay quarty a quara percent. the cac up fractionally. >> dollar moving higher. we saw, if we look at the intraday chart of the dollar, a move up on that vote that bodes well for the u.s. economy, for the dollar trade. dollar stronger against the yen, up three quarters of a percent nice move there. also firmer against the euro at 1.18 oil prices, there is the intraday chart that's what i was talking about. you got that vote, you saw a spike up you al

gary cohn and kevin warsh. gary cohn is probably more useful on the fiscal efforts so by process of elimination i would say kevin warsh. alix: it was an interesting intraday move yesterday. the white line is that 2-10 curve, got a lot steeper on the headlines from politico -- sorry, that is the white line. the blue line is the s&p financials, moving in tandem with that steeper curve. is this the correct response to a potential dove at the head of the fed? ben: one of the book ends on the outcomes here, the most dovish possible is a continuation of current policy. j powell is probably the most emblematic of that stance. what is the current policy? .or gradual tightening if anything, markets seem underpriced for what the fed will be doing over the next year or so. we have had this conjecture that they will resume rate right -- rate hikes. i would not be surprised if they got in two or three next year. carl: banks like steeper yield curves, so i think that was the appropriate response for financials, and you will

kevin warsh, i doubt for some. in part says he has a long running feud with someone appointed by trump as the fed board governor. has been lobbying against kevin warsh. steve mnuchin has been listening, because he is not on side, he favors jay powell. let's look at g #btv 3203. a bettingill see, website. red line is powell. janet yellen in the yellow line, moore strength. -- more strength. kevin warsh not convincing anybody. said john taylor is far and away the strongest candidate. there is no way he would take the job is number two, he would not take the vice chair of -- fed. betty: he does not want to be the wing man? [laughter] kathleen: monetary wing man -- wingman. betty: -- thing going have a on with the markets, we like the markets. he give another interview this week to fox business news and here is what he said when asked about re-nominating janet yellen. you would like to make your own mark, which is one of the things he -- she has against her. that i think she is terrific, we had a great talk. we are doi

kevin warsh rises to that level. jay powell also rises to that level. janet yellen perhaps less so i think there's a concern here, scott, that a positive or an approval of some of these tax cuts and policies for the economy could cause an opposite reaction at the fed, and i think the president wants somebody to give him a little bit of a leash on this when it comes to let's get the tax cuts in place. let the economy run and don't preempt -- not just the deficit is one thing and worry about the inflationary impacts later on and don't be so reflexive and one of the conversations we've been having is kevin warsh would be also reflexive. the economy is strong and ergo inflation. >> if this concept that says let us do the tax cut, let us do $1 trillion worth of stimulus and give that a couple of years to work through the system before any more tightening which would blunt the edge of that stimulus, this is going to be a free for all for risk assets. >> you're not supposed to trade that way, josh, you know that. >> hold on. >> also discount -- >> that's at th

warsh in second place, cohn higher than before, and yellen and taylor now at the bottom sara >> seems like a politically palatable choice, as well, pleasing the democrats as a yellen ally, pleasing the republicans because he's republican, has private sector experience we'll see what happens, steve. the intrigue is building >> watching and reporting closely. >> of course, as always. >>> and when we come back, sacramento kings owner vivek ranadive brings his plea to bring amazon hq2 to his city "squawk alley" back in a moment. well, it's earnings season once again. >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions.

and then there's kevin warsh. he's been on the fed board for more than a decade, so he is experienced, but he may want to see too fast a rise in interest rates. i'm joined by simon french, chief economist at the investment bank panmure gordon. good morning. so ben talking through the various candidates, no sign of janet yellen among them. no, the markets have responded well to the four years of janet yellen, if you see the challenge she had on hands, the us economy recovering from its biggest financial crisis in 70 yea rs, biggest financial crisis in 70 years, she started the normalisation of monetary policy, bringing up interest rates, and this month is of monetary policy, bringing up interest the ;, and this month is of monetary policy, bringing up interest the balanceiis month is of monetary policy, bringing up interest the balance sheet, th is of monetary policy, bringing up interest the balance sheet, the $4 reducing the balance sheet, the $4 trillion held by the federal a skilful reserve. so that is a skilfu

mark: the betting markets are favoring powell after favoring warsh. we should stop worrying about the volatility. isre is a strong likelihood dovish. he likes leverage and he cannot afford tight monetary policy given he is struggling to get fiscal stimulus past. with trump there is always the thing. some tail risk we cannot predict that. there is no point getting too excited about a meeting with john taylor or whatever anyone thinks about kevin warsh. it is likely powell or yellen. there is a risk in might be someone completely random like john k -- taylor. i do not think that will be the base case. matt: thank you. you can follow his log for market insights on mliv . a many revolution. revolution. looking to produce this tiny car in china with the chinese automaker. we will bring you the story, important because you might see this on your shores. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: let's get a bloomberg business flash. people with knowledge of the plan say that would be on top of the annual rate the bank lands to hand some clients. the charges almost twi

warsh, 20% chance for powell, 20% chance for janet yellen, and 10% chance for gary cohn what what do you think? >> it's hard to put probabilities on that. >> they had nothing over 50% >> 10% other nobody over 50%. >> nobody as a favorite? that's tuned >> 40% >> that means it's more likely he's not going to be than he is going to be. >> okay. but this is not a tiger woods field scenario >> that's a 60% chance of something else >> they're putting leading odds on kevin warsh >> give me a 51% >> what's interesting, they give janet yellen as much of a chain as powell. >> i'm convinced he will want somebody dovish. >> that's yellen or powell not warsh. >> that's why i was surprised to see that's their take and there'salysts who have different versions of this. >> let me ask you why you think janet yellen is a dovish central banker it's the common theme but a different version is look where the inflation rate is now. the fed is on a hiking path. inflation is -- >> she continued emergency policies eight years into a recovery from the event. it took her two years before she decided to -- >> w

said kevin warsh has been "wrong about everything." explained why he could still get the job. >> politically correct from the republican point of view, has some family connections with trump. might still be appointed. vonnie: joining us now is chairman andnd, ceo of holland & co. kevin warsh has a chance of getting it and pull krugman is coming from a particular place when he says he's wrong about everything. what would he be like as a fed chair? michael: i think he will be just fine. from whence he speaks because he's been wrong about lots of things, himself. worth has been worried about inflation and overspending on securities. overall, he was the honest fed governor ever appointed -- the youngest fed governor ever appointed. the market will take it all right, bonds will trade off because the bond market believes he's going to accelerate the unwinding of the portfolio. powell was that, mr. the author winner last night, is one who will probably get a thumbs up from the markets. mr. taylor is the only one -- he's the third name in the

i think warsh is i don't know where powell stands on this. as a republican, remember, he was a compromise candidate he would be in that camp conventional economics. >> want pulling the trigger before you see it? >> and let the idea of supply side i do want to make one point, chgs little known about jay powell look at predicting, guys he is way up 72% probability now. i thought that was the chart in the back there it is. yesterday it was, like, 44, and i went to check it before i wrote a story, and it had jumped up because of the political story saying that the presiden was leaning towards jay powell, the fed governor, and what we learned there was, you know, what i have been able to -- is he being seriously considered? yellen, i don't think, is being all that seriously considered from what i can tell there is warsh one thing worth thinking about, when powell was nominated or renominated in 2014, he was opposed by 23 republican senators >> really? >> including all the big names that you know. >> wait a second >> crepo >> is this because these

so warsh was at 28%, and then yellen 22%, and powell at 21%. if i wassed ethe editor -- as w guy, do you think that's a good headline. >> i would say warsh in the lead >> that's different than the predictive markets and -- >> let's say there's four people in the running and they each get 25%. >> race too close to call, you're saying? >> they talk three here. one got 28, one 22, they're really that good at the difference between 28 and 22 just shooting -- just speculating -- i just think it's -- >> headlines are often -- >> stupid. >> right and made to fit a small space. >> if i was just scanning and i read that, then i went somewhere for lunch, i would say warsh is likely the pick. >> you can't just read headlines. >> but it's not really the story. >> we run headlines all day. i won't throw stones >> ours are much more -- >> nuanced >> we have numbers and stuff here then again it is all economics i talk about the economics >> ours is jerome powell seen as the favorite >> there you go 48 is better if there's four people running and they're in th

scarlet: the president had a great conversation with john taylor and kevin warsh, two other contenders. do you think janet yellen's interview was just a courtesy? >> i don't think that was the case. she has a strong track record, there are some headlines suggesting there's a conservative campaign against her. not particularly surprising, given the partisanship in washington and that she's a democrat. she has a very solid track record behind her, that significantly improves her odds in the standing. julia: the conversation at some point is going to arrive with an announcement of who actually is going to be the next chair. >> what we will be watching are the potential tweets coming from president trump, certainly the press conferences over the next few days. as well as chair yellen, who's giving a speech on monetary policy since the financial crisis tomorrow evening in washington, d.c. 7:30 p.m. tomorrow. in terms of when the announcement comes, watch for the market reaction. it's not just the stock market, i think particularly, i will be watching the shape of the treasury curve. that wi

who's a favorite at this point >> i think it's kevin warsh. i'm not really sure. his star had fallen in the predicted numbers, but he's the one who keeps coming up in terms of the surveys that are done look, here's what is definitely clear. no one outside the white house knows who the president's going to pick and no one inside the white house knows who the president's going to pick. i talked to a few of them on and off. it depends a little bit on the flavor of the day, flavor of the week that's how it goes back and forth. and it depends on who was in there last. >> all right so yellen's going to be in there last. >> she may shoot up. >> through your reporting what do you think what are her chances, put a percentage on it from what you know now. >> i think they're below 50% i have two reasons for that. one is that the recent opposition in the gop. remember the gop complained for a long time about low interest rates and they talked about runaway inflation, the inability to sell bonds and all this stuff. and distortion of the market they criticize her and i think th

talk about kevin warsh and what we know of him. its president trump's choice. it's up to him whether he wants to choose the person based on the personality or the politics. we simply think he would to somebody who would be a low interest rate person. warsh.uld not be kevin he would be more hawkish. that is our view. he had interesting views about changeon and he wants to certain things. i think you would be more .awkish than chair yellen powell would be another interesting choice. shery: we have already talked about kashkari. what about powell? be a change into policy from the current policy. it would be a continuation of the current kind of policy. chair yellen explicitly said that she would be very much against any deregulation. that could be to adam for the current administration and in this case governor powell becomes the second choice. me ask you about the meetings getting underway. how much of the focus is going to be on the u.s. economy? the imf looking at the growth outlook. it seems on the bright side. they revised it up a little bit. we had it much i

can you warm up to someone like kevin warsh? juncker --can you warm up to soe kevin japp: he will bring up the interest rates much more quickly than anticipated. the two years will move. the 10 years may not move as quickly as some has anticipated. flatten from where we sit now. yousef: what about the ecb's plans to start looking at its balance sheet. one must quote as soon as possible exit from unconventional policies, they are not in a rush, are they? jaap: the program is ending in december so we expect another 40 billion a month for the next six months. yousef: what happens after that? what kind of impact is that go have? jaap: not materially. interest rates will still below for at least into next year. critically the ecb is concerned about the very low core inflation. inflation is still 1.5%. the euro has been stronger recently through importation will reduce inflationary pressures that are there. we are not going to see any change. we start to see some asset bubbles as well. yousef: we are going to get back to you shortly.

and then there is kevin warsh. he has been on the board for a decade but may want to see interest rates go up faster and he was wrong about the risks of high inflation would have fared's accommodative monetary policy. whoever gets tapped will have a toughjob whoever gets tapped will have a tough job ahead, steering the american economy of historic low interest rates without sinking the recovery. shares of kobe steel have pushed higher, the third—largest steelmaker injapan undera higher, the third—largest steelmaker in japan under a cloud higher, the third—largest steelmaker injapan under a cloud of controversy after admitting to falsifying dart on a range of products. will these earnings be affected by the scandal? we are expecting the first half result in about five hours from now but they have said they can't what have said they can't determine what impact this scandal will have on the bottomline. kobe steel forecast a profit for the year ending march 2018 after two successive years of major losses. that mi

and then there is kevin warsh. he has been on the fed bought for more than a decade, so knows the gig- for more than a decade, so knows the gig. but he may want interest rates go. and he was warned about inflation. whoever rodez will have a ahead steering away difficultjob ahead steering away from historically low interest rates. with me is nandini ramakrishnan, global market strategist atjp morgan asset management. good morning. good to see you. so is samir hussein was talking to some of the candidates. there are few fair, powell, the continuity candidate, then taylor, who could be a little bit more unpredictable. yes, there isa bit more unpredictable. yes, there is a difference between powell having experience and working with the taylor for several years, and taylor, who is eight professor who invented the taylor rule, and according to that rule, they should be higher than where they are now. this is a continuity candidate versus somebody who is a little bit mawkish. it is important to remember that whoever is p

powell is in the lead, warsh and yellen have gone down. taylor is down, as well. i can't help but think that after trump has mentioned, when we get the latest results from the betting websites, we will see he has moved up a bit. taylor is sparking a bigger bond selloff in howell. it would be saying a 10 point drop in yields if taylor gets chosen rather than jay powell. haidi: we talked about john taylor widely perceived as the most hawkish candidate, is this a good enough reason to not give him the job? kathleen: that's what everybody is suggesting. there was a terrific story about this on the bloomberg this weekend, look at it. they pointed out that given he has talked about fed policy, he might have to make a hard pivot. you, 917.er chart for it is the taylor rule that makes people say this. at unemployment and inflation, he says the fun rate should be at 3.75. slightly different coefficients brings you to 2.5%. he is also been a vocal critic of said policies. i think maybe the biggest question for his potential to be fed chair is the question, has he been snare

>> my name is kevin warsh. i don't want powell, not anything particular against him it would be continuation of the yellen years. they have been fantastic inflating asset prices, increasing in being inequality, been terrible for most of america producing growth, we can not continue with the central planning of the yellen years and powell represents that. trish: ned ryun, gary cohn out of the running because what happened with charlottesville? this is guy definitely understands debt markets. he ran fixed income when i was at goldman sachs way back when. this is a guy who gets debt markets but politically? >> you stole my point. i think his comments on charlottesville, i think he is on this list out of certain amount of politeness. i have a hard time believing gary cohn will be the next chairman of the federal reserve because of his public break with donald trump over charlottesville. anybody but gary cohn. anybody but janet yellen. let's look at the other three. trish: good to see you both. thanks so much, steve

you have kevin warsh, jerome powell. they seem to be front-runners. i would not say anyone is sticking out. and gary cohn are the connect as the least likely to be next fed chair. does that seem consistent with what you are seeing or believe? what about john taylor, who seems like a wildcard? michael: i do not have any inside information. i do not know what the white house is thinking. where the pic, it would represent continuity. deputy for a loyal both young and bernanke over the years. would be a change as far as how policy is conducted. shot in termsnger of where we go from here. betty: stay with us, we will talk more about this. michael feroli from jpmorgan. do not miss our conversation with lawrence ho. yvonne: looking ahead the u.s. jobs, we will have the first reaction from white house national economic director gary cohn at 9:30 eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ yvonne: this is "daybreak asia," i am yvonne man in hong kong. betty: i am betty liu here in new york. a bevy of the fed speakers talk about rate hike ahead. here.en hays is we just

whereas kevin warsh criticized the federal reserve. and he's much more rules-based whereas yellen and powell would be more the status quo candidate. my pick? i don't have one i've got to cover these guys it would be sort of stupid for me to pick maybe we should ask michelle girard michelle >> you know, steve, i still think kevin warsh is the front-runner he brings a lot of things to the table that trump probably likes. first of all, i think he is someone that the president probably feels very comfortable with there is sort of a family connection there he's got the -- he's got fed experience, but, of course, he's got business experience, as well and i think, you know, while he's expressed views about monetary policy that are more hawkish than the current fed chair, i honestly think warsh sees the world as his economic advisers do, in the sense there are supply, free market individuals. i think there is a lot ideacally that aligns well >> but, michelle, he's a guy that criticized low rates and argued that it's led to lack of capital inve

gary cohn, keven warsh, janet yellen, and noticeably absent is glenn hobart and richard davis. >> i think chair yellen is still better than even odds for the fed chair. she would reflect a continuity of the policy that has been in place. president trump has said he does like her and admires her track record. i would say yellen, powell, and further down the list, maybe warsh, but he might be too hawkish for president trump. >> i think what is most interesting is that there are some dovish republicans being proposed and what i mean by that is potential governors who would be dovish on interest rates, would pullback qe and get the curve to widen out a little bit, which i think would be good for the markets. and probably the ones that trump, when he starts interviewing these guys, he will go with one who is more anti-regulation. >> the house passed their budget resolution for the fiscal year, taking their first concrete step to enacting tax reform. it allows the republican tax bill to be passed with a simple majority and reconciliation protecting the legislation from a democratic filibuster.

seen as more hawkish followed by kevin warsh. cohn and powell seen as supporting the status quo. 8 of 9 categories yellen was the best for stocks, growth, best for managing the financial crisis and best for unemployment taylor was judged best for keeping inflation stable president trump has said he'll make his choice before he heads overseas november 3rd. steve liesman, cnbc news >> let's talk to the expert. kevin geddis is with us. the street wants a continuation of the status quo, janet yellen. will they get it >> i think so. i participated in steve's -- >> you did >> it's interesting as i see as it plays out most of the participants are in agreement, jay powell would be the likely choice. it's an interesting thing going on why do you need a hawk currently? you may need over time, but currently running the fed worried about inflation, that's about the last thing the u.s. is worried about. it appears that the president wants to take out anything that had to do with the former administration which is why janet yellen is falling a

and interviewees that the president and steven mnuchin have been talking to kevin powell and steve warsh >> that's my must read today >> good. asian equities overnight, some action out of japan. strong again didn't close up much, but that's a to-ye a two-year high for the nikkei hang seng closed up. australia was lower. europe did manage to close higher yesterday and it's mixed this morning. the dax is stronger. but we're seai inseeing weakness the continent, particularly in spain as the political problem of catalonia heats up. they had that illegal referendum over the weekend, there was violence a crackdown from the government and thousa government and now they'll have to figure out what to do next. the catalonian leaders are plowing forward with this referendum >> their rhetoric yesterday more pronounced about pushing forward. we had softer eurozone retail sales this morning and headlines coming out which we'll come to the competition commission speaking about -- >> waiting on that amazon back tax. >> 250 million euros seems to be the headline also taking i'd to court over their small

kevin warsh, jay powell, jay powell would be one of those guys who would be like -- >> well, politico argues it's between warsh and powell. >> powell's cool. >> don't know powell. >> i've known him for a long time kne >> i mean, if i were invited t "vanity fair" -- i'm more like "mad" magazine but i would say warsh and -- warsh and powell would move the market kne the bonds will roll off. >> you're kind of alone on the cohn thing, that love for cohn you're alone out there. >> you know what i'm an outlier like creditkari. >> can we come back to the broad market ne commodities have been moving up. >> but freeport a critical note about problems with the grassberg notions that will hurt them but alcoa can no longer weigh in so somewhere out there watching us, marveling that it will all come together but too late for claus. he's still among the living. >> you're talking about him as though he's no longer with us. he wrote an unfortunate letter probably late one night and it's unfortunate he lost his job. >> there's not a plaque, not a sign post, nothing. >> do you think there will be multi

yes. >> he's been considered more dovish than kevin warsh. that's why we saw market reaction to the emergence of jerome powell, that's last week or the week before we'll see what happens we should know more in the next couple weeks let's talk about the start of the earnings season in the u.s., kicking off with jp morgan and citi. >>> the big banks kick off their report card season that's in two minutes. zar: one of our investors was in his late 50s right in the heart of the financial crisis, and saw his portfolio drop by double digits. it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client. he's now on track to retire when he's 65. having someone coach you through it is really the value of a financial advisor. you myour joints...thing for your heart... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for

kevin warsh or powell? >> i think they're both excellent. the question is will we see the new fed chair being dressed down on twitter the way rex tillerson is that would be problematic. >> so far we have not seen it even though he campaigned against yellen >> maybe when he puts his person in, maybe that will change the dynamic like i own you, i gave you this job >> loyalty >> absolutely. >> ken rogoff, thank you for being here this morning. wilfred, back over to you. >> thank you very much >>> still to come on "worldwide exchange," we're live on the front lines of the deadly wildfires tearing through the heart of california's wine country. back in a upcole minutes it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get you up to speed on the mar

kevin warsh of sanford has met with the president. what do we know about his stance on financial regulation? jeanna: we know he should be one of the more comfortable of the group and rolling back financial regulation. -- he definitely has a conservative job. president trump could nominate five governors out of the seven person. what sort of impact will this have on the fed? jeanna: trump will be able to trump will be able to reshape the federal reserve during his administration. it is for governors unless yellen leaves in which case he has a fifth. out of seven people, that is a substantial portion. it is important to remember that these are the people with permanent votes on monetary policy. while there are -- they all wrote on a rotating basis where government is on a permanent list. have written about this for bloomberg markets. we have seen the balance where those fed presidents have more power. but is not a permanent thing. it seems like the situation we have now. what are the effects of that as the fed ways and how it normalizes

is chairman warshe, chairman taylor, chairman hubbard, can they be an exogenous shock to the certitude of the floating-rate market? mark: i think they can. i think under bernanke and yellen we have had a robust environment. for financial assets. you have seen not only bonds do well, but equities do well. the challenge is going to the because the global economy is doing decently and because it is likely you will see inflation in developed markets gradually pick up, the ability of central banks to provide that tailwind for financial markets, i don't think it is going to be as robust as it has in the past. and by the way, that is independent of the new chair. but the new chair is going to create a potential volatility for markets. so it is something i think that is going to be a headwind for asset prices going forward. tom: jim, i want to go to you with the last question. the non-sophisticates out there say yield higher, price lower. is anyone looking for an almost bear market in bonds? is there anybody out there talking about price down where it is painful? jim: i'm sure there are some p