roy moore beat bob vance 52-48, which is close, actually. so i want to watch the biggest counties in the state, the most populous counties in the state to compare doug jones' performance tonight with this other democrat from 2012 who came close to beating roy moore that night. in 2012 running against roy moore, bob vance won all four of the most populous counties of the state. jefferson county, madison county where huntsville is, mobile county, montgomery. bob vance won them all against roy moore in 2012 with anywhere between 52 and 71% of the vote. so in each of the counties tonight we'll be looking to see in those places is doug jones able to improve in those big populous counties, is he able to improve on that margin that that democrat got against roy moore five years ago when he almost beat roy moore? i'll tell you one lucky part of approaching this election that way is that we're told that madson county where huntsville is, that's sometimes relativelierly reporter sometimes able to turn the vote around quickly, in which case madison cou

look at the race with bob vance. down here in mobile, actually went democratic. that's why the president was down here in pensacola, florida, speaking to the mobile media market trying to get republicans to stick with roy moore in this race. let's watch. if this is blue tonight, late into the night, doug jones has a chance. also up here, madison county, up here in huntsville area. look at this, bob vance won it in the chief justice race in 2012 at a time mitt romney was winning it quite handily in the presidential race. roy moore has been vulnerable, but let's look back. that's how doug jones would have to do it. african-american turnout way up. suburban republicans outside here, shelby county, outside of birmingham, suburban republicans saying i can't vote for roy moore and coming over to the democratic side. for roy moore, i want to go back to this race down here. look here in the southeast corner of the state. houston county. you see 64%. right here, this is where you have the christian conservative rural base of the republican party in alabama. down here in t

bob vance joins me from a little ways north in a snowier birmingham. judge vance, thanks for coming out. >> my pleasure, chuck. >> let me start with that 2012 race. you did an interview earlier today with politico and talked about the importance of president obama's presence on the ballot, enthusiasm from the african-american community. i just spent time talking to state senator henry sanders and admitted he was a littles did appointed he didn't see the former president down here. so, you know, how can that be duplicated in a race like this? >> chuck, i'm not sure it can. that was a luxury i had in 2012. i got in the race late. the former democratic nominee was removed and i didn't get into the race until august but i recognized i had the luxury, recognizing that the democratic turnout would be there, because it was a presidential year with president obama at the top of the ticket. so i was able to focus all of my campaign efforts on trying to peel away moderate republicans with the assumption that the democratic base would show up on election day. dou

i want to bring in bob vance, alabama circuit judge to our full panel. everyone with a good reason for being here and you as well. and the kids use the term loser. we don't think of you as a loser. >> thank you. >> you came so close in what was a traditional environment, you outperformed what democrats typically do against roy moore so you have a real insight on what's happening. first tell us what's happening and then, second, speak to the other piece of this. the idea that there is an allegation not only that roy moore was a predator but an allegation that he was abusing his power as d.a. >> right. what's happening now in the election is what happened in my race against roy moore in 2012. and that is based on the central truth that roy moore is a very divisive person even among republicans. there are many republicans in the suburbs of birmingham and huntsville and mobile, for example, traditional establishment type republicans who just cannot stomach the social conservatism, the hot button issues that roy moore keeps campaigning on. so, i knew that get

judge bob vance, thank you so much for your time. appreciate it, sir. >> my pleasure. >> let's continue the conversation with my panel. margaret, what are you going to be looking for tomorrow in terms of the race, in terms of whether or not doug jones or roy moore will be victorious? >> well, turnout is that a cheap and easy answer? look, it's turnout on both sides, right? it is republicans who are saying they're going to vote for roy moore actually show up at the polls or will some stay home? and then are african-american voters, youth voters and that small percentage, that one-third estimated white voter who's might be willing to cross party lines and vote democrat in alabama, are they going to turn out? if there is anything that the 2016 taught us, polling is not that reliable and turnout matters. we'll see this play out in a completely alabama way tomorrow. >> three numbers to look for. 35, 25, 4. 35%, that's what doug jones needs to get among white voters in a traditional alabama election. it's a high bar. but he's executive awf

in his 2012 race for state chief justice, roy moore lost the county to democrat bob vance even though mitt romney beat president obama there for a 17-point margin. it could be a good sign for roy moore. joining me now is john merrill. sir, thank you for joining us this evening. really appreciate it. i want to ask you -- >> thank you for allowing many he to be your guest. >> thank you. and i want to ask you about your own vote. you say you cast an absentee ballot for roy moore. do you find the accusations against him to not be credible? >> no. my vote has nothing to do with the allegations made by these ladies. and i think it's very important to know, kasie, this election is not about me. it's about judge moore, about doug jones and, more importantly, it's all about the people of the great state of alabama. and on tuesday, the people of alabama will have their voice heard but not just the people of alabama but the people who choose to participate in the whole process. >> you say that these allegations have nothing to do with your vote. why do these allegations not matter? >> well, beca

bob vance lost with 48%, but imagine doug jones is using this map. where kaylie is is in montgomery. democrats have to not only run it up, but doug jones needs to not only do that. it's the math. do people turn out near presidential turn out. college students and other democratic voters near montgomery and birmingham. it is critical that doug jones run up huge margins. we expect him to win in the northern and the southern belt of the state. what about the suburbs? shelby county and south of birmingham, this is a place where luther strange did well against roy moore. moderate republican voters. do they stay home and vote for roy jones? that's what we will be looking for. no business that pensacola is in florida. nobody who lives here can vote in this election. that's where the president went because he wanted to influence voters in the mobile area. the democrats won one county and performed well in the other. this will be key here. more moderate mainstream republicans. do they stick with the president and go to doug jones? very difficult math for doug

bob vance, 63% of the vote in jefferson county in 2012. this has to be the foundation for the democrats right now. doug jones significantly overperforming that, that says he's competitive and he's in play. let's go back historically to 2012 are in this particular race r. i mentioned a minute ago this was blue. this is roy moore, 64% in this race in 2012. at the moment doug jones is ahead here. it's 11% of the vote. you compare it to the last excessive race for moore and you come to the current race. let's go back and take a look at how much that mattered. 64, that's about even to the performance in the close race in 2012. you take the 2012 race, which was very close are, you come up to 2017 at 15%. both headquarters, this is nail biting in the sense you can find places on the map where you say, great, that's what we need, and others where you can't answer yet are jefferson county, tuscaloosa county, montgomery county at 8%. and then up here in huntsville we're up to 23%. in those bigger urban areas and then the suburbs. does the democratic

what do you see in the race with moore versus vance in 2012, when moore ran against bob vance, what does doug jones have to do to win this race in alabama? >> well, the first thing he has to do is reverse or overturn the dominant trend in modern senate elections, which is to reverse what john said. they are increasingly about party, not person. alabama is one of 13 states that have voted republican in every presidential election since 1992. right now, democrats have one of the 26 senate seats in those 13 states. 15 states have voted democratic in every presidential election since 1992. republicans now have one of those 30. we're talking about an overwhelming trend to align presidential and senate results. voters are essentially voting on which party they want to see in control and less on the individuals. and this will test how far that has gone. i think the model really is virginia 2017 where you saw a surprisingly strong turnout among millennials and minorities and big margins for democrats. the movement you saw among voters were in the white college educate educated women. you didn't

reminder when roy moore ran for chief justice that year he beat the democrat bob vance in that race by just three percentage points. the second point i just got off the phone with the montgomery elections manager who she told me for hoyer county, compared to the schedule election, nine times the numbers of requests for absentee ballets. expect at least a 25% turnout come tuesday. significant, because democrat doug jones needs a high voter turnout among democrats and crossover republicans who will back him on tuesday. >> a very high voter turnout to make it work for him. hallie jackson, dina powell leaving the white house. what's that about? >> reporter: leaving early next year. something that the white house says had been long planned. before she does leave, she is going to travel with the vice president to the middle east when he leaves late next week, for that trip to israel, to meet with both netanyahu and abbas. also heading to egypt, essentially -- i don't want to call it damage control but having these conversations days after the very controversial jerusalem announcement. dina p

52-48, roy moore wins, bob vance losings but gets 63% in jefferson county. tonight in the early results, doug jones is up at 88%. he is overperforming early on the democrat. i can show you other counties where that is consistent. doug jones is overperforming the candidate that just lost to roy moore in 2012. if you're in roy moore headquarters, these counties right across the northern part of the state right here, evangelical christians, rural republican voters, roy moore voters, trump voters, absolutely critical to roy moore tonight to offset the urban arabias, morgan county, 2.5%. this is so far tonight. 3%. 51% to 47%. let's go back to 2012 and that race. 51% now. so roy moore is underperforming roy moore in that very competitive 1992 race. i want to, again, it's very early on as you watch this -- as you watch this fill in, but if you're in the two headquarters, you are now calling into these places. most of this is absentee ballots and you are trying to get any intelligence you can about whether these numbers are going to stand up. another key area for d

when he barely won that seat on the supreme court in 2012 against bob vance, he got 65% of the vote in baldwin county. he is now getting 61% of the vote in baldwin county. and that is the sort of thing that might be rounding error in a typical election. >> right. >> just like those 18,000 votes for random write-in might be a rounding error in a regular election. but if it's going to be this close, that's absolutely what could be the difference. >> steve, that's what you've been looking for all night. the spots where roy moore is underperforming? >> yeah. and there is two types of underperforming here. if you're roy moore, one is if you're just not running at the level of republicans. i'll give you a classic example of that. i think one of the worst counties we've seen, there is two. collegiate theme here. number one, sorry, it's supposed to be -- there we go. lee county. the home of auburn university. donald trump got 59% here. roy moore almost lost five years for chief justice, he still won this county. he got 53% of the vote. tonight he only got 41% of the vote. so, again, that theme

brian, what could bob mueller get from flynn? >> well, that's the $64,000 question, ari. what he can get for the first time is all of your guests sui singly said is -- owe succinctally said inside a view on air force one, bob mueller made his bones prosecuting mob cases when the president was se duesing marla maples. he recognizes that you build a case like this from the grounds up not from the top down. what he can get from mike flynn for the first time, he's got one of the copos, we're not chuck talking a chucklehead like george papadopoulos, we're talking a key player, a non-family member. remember, all talk about the c-word the collusion, the important mind on the people in the white house, ari, conspiracy, what it is that mike flynn can tell them about the other players in this ongoing legal drama about russia. >> brian, just generally, if you do flip, does it work if you tell on people who work for you, your assistant or who do you have to tell on? >> generally the rule of thumb from anyone that has seen the godfather trilogy, you have to trade up, frankie five ange

mueller. >> our great thanks to joyce vance and sam stein for tonight's conversation. coming at a critical time in this case. we appreciate it. >>> coming up for us, the republican senators who have gone soft about the republican tax bill. in a new report about the speaker of the house and plans he might have to hang it up and move home to wisconsin when the 11th hour continues. >>> unless they figure out a way to increase the refundable part higher than $1100 and figured out a way to give corporations an extra year of cuts, the way they figured out a way to lower the top rate to someone -- family making a million dollars, unless they can figure out a way to add to the 1100 figure, i won't support the bill. >> some said today that was the sound of a senator naming his price. republican senator marco rubio of florida adding more uncertainty to the gop tax plan. you heard him there say what he needed to support it. announcing he won't vote for the bill unless it expands that child tax credit to millions of lower income families. spokesman for utah republican senator mike

mueller. >> our great thanks to joyce vance and sam stein for tonight's conversation. coming at a critical time in this case. we appreciate it. >>> coming up for us, the republican senators who have gone soft about the republican tax bill. in a new report about the speaker of the house and plans he might have to hang it up and move home to wisconsin when the 11th hour continues. david. what's going on? oh hey! ♪ that's it? yeah. ♪ everybody two seconds! ♪ "dear sebastian, after careful consideration of your application, it is with great pleasure that we offer our congratulations on your acceptance..." through the tuition assistance program, every day mcdonald's helps more people go to college. it's part of our commitment to being america's best first job. ♪ when you have a cold, stuff happens. ♪ { sneezing ] shut down cold symptoms fast [ coughing ] with maximum strength alka seltzer plus liquid gels. ♪ when you have doctors working as a team for your health, you get the care you need to help you thrive. ♪ visit kp.org to learn more. kaiser permanente. th

. >> you said it, though, bob mueller doesn't care, he's got his head down going his job. >> joyce vance will be on the show later today still ahead on "morning joe," republicans are moving full speed ahead with the tax cut bill despite calls from democrats to wait until the new democrat from alabama is seated. >> that ain't happening. >> plus, as we have been mentioni mentioning, republicans trying to undermine robert mueller and the russian investigation. we will look into that and play the heated deputy of the attorney general as he stands his grounds. you are watching "morning joe". we'll be right back. when you're clocking out. i'm the one clocking in... sensing your every move and automatically adjusting to help you stay effortlessly comfortable. i can even help with a silent night. does your bed do that? i don't actually talk, but i can tell you how you slept. i'm the new sleep number 360 smart bed. let's meet at a sleep number store. we cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. fidelity, where smarter investors

attorney, joyce vance. >> hold on a second. so it appears, willie, that mika's movies is trending on twitter now. here we go. let's see what we have. "the producers". "the family stone" "love actually". >> whenever you try to show me that one, you cry like a baby. "pretty woman". "smokey and the bandit". >> i would put in "minority report"? >> great book and movie. >> "imitation game". >> if you don't start with "coming to america" i'll be so disappointed? >> mika, have you seen "top gun" yet? >> no. is that with little tom cruise? >> oh, come on. don't pull out the donald trump stuff. >> i thought that was how we normally talked about people these days. we learn everything from the great president of the united states. >> when he buzzes the tower, and negative ghost rider, the pattern is full, and he still buzzes the tower. >> we'll be right back. my dad's. grandma's. aunt stacy's. what are the reasons you care for your heart? qunol coq10 with 3x better absorption has the #1 cardiologist recommended form of coq10 to support he