treasuries. guessing tremendous amounts of overseas buying, 45% of the u.s. corporate market today is overseas versus 25% 10 years ago. distortions are coming through risk assets more so at this point that through rate markets. >> i think it is a great point that she is making, it is the best trade in the sovereign marketplace for a while now, buying treasuries. will that trade still be good now that italy is facing inflationary pressures? does it make it a value back to other sovereign debt? that is something we will watch closely, but it is the best strategy on the board. we talked about the boj before and the are capping the yield -- one of our favorite trades is shorting the 30 year part of the curve -- they don't control in a free market part of the japanese bond market curve. >> is that the widow maker? is different it because as you said before, the yield control policy is suppressing yields throughout the curve up to 10 years effectively. that park is more freely floating, but the economy

treasuries. guessing tremendous amounts of overseas buying, 45% of the u.s. corporate market today is overseas versus 25% 10 years ago. we have seen -- the distortions are coming through risk assets i think more so at this point than three rate markets -- through rates markets. kevin: i think it is a great point that she is making. it has been the best trade in the sovereign marketplace for a while now, buying treasuries. will that trade still be good now that italy is starting to see some inflationary pressures? some of these other european countries are seeing inflationary pressures. does it make it a value back in other sovereign debt versus the u.s.? that is something we will watch closely but it has been the best strategy on the board. jonathan: eric, what are your thoughts? eric: we talked about the boj before and they are capping the 10 year at 10 basis points. one of our favorite trades is shorting the 30 year part of the jgb curve, basically where they don't control in a free market part

treasuries. based on u.s. treasuries. still a good chance you earn your coupon and have risk if it is a risk off deflationary environment, or risk if it is a higher rate inflationary environment. based on u.s. treasuries. still a good chance you earn your coupon and have risk if it is a risk off deflationary environment, or risk if it is a higher rate inflationary environment. right now, it is a higher rate repricing leading to some stress in the credit market. i would put it as a bigger risk than a deflationary risk off, so i think there is a good chance you can earn your coupon but not as much value left in the credit this is it a market that is materially mispriced. jonathan: mispriced by how much? the reason i ask this question also, is what is the time arising for this trade? is this something that is going to have more sustainable upside? yields higher and yields higher again. lisa: i cannot make a promise. i think it is a structural yields higher and yields higher trade. if you look at the dependency ratios in ital

jonathan: do you like the treasuries i 280? kevin: i do. >> i think there is a better for you here then they had a few weeks back. i think there is a bigger distortion and cyber yields. germany's basis points weld 5%. three rate hikes priced in for the next three years in europe, that seems modest given the data. jonathan: let's talk about that. the boj had a limited amount of bonds at a fixed rate. cappingys are not yields at 50 basis points. at 58.1is capping percent. this is craziness isn't it? >> you could not say it any better than that. jonathan: how much higher if the bank of japan is going to keep a lid on everything that happens there? >> i think that is a fair point. but one of the biggest distortions of the ecb is markets.in credit about 45% of the u.s. corporate today is over saying for about 25% 10 years ago. we've seen that distortion more so at this point. great point she is making. it has been the best trade in the sovereign marketplace for a treasuries.uying will that trade still be good now that you are seeing

jonathan: colleague, treasuries looking exciting? matt i am on board with mark on : this one, that is unusual. i'm looking at the yields we have on the market. i'm looking at two and a -- the two-year, and it's almost 2.25%. it is getting more difficult to short that. we still are very short the front and. there are still less than three price hikes priced in for this year in the very front end. but it is getting more priced in. our view is they will hike three or four times. there is a little more value you can squeeze but it is getting more difficult to short. kathy: i think exciting is not really the word i would use. i would agree that the two years looks pretty attractive. we actually think three to seven years, you still pick up a little bit of yield in there. it is not a bad place to be. jonathan i want to bring up : this, the market and the federal reserve hand in hand for 2018 -- what the market projects the fed projects. we get out to 2019, and a spread starts to open up the twin the market and the fed, and open up a whole

we begin with a big issue, a big week of treasury supply. this blowout in the deficit in the u.s., from 3% to 5% by the end of this year, is completely unprecedented. >> for 30 years, the theory hasn't worked. borrowing, interest rates, there is a zero correlation with it. right now, rates are going up because of the fear inflation bankreturn and the central will have to exit a lot faster than people think. >> i agree it is not the deficit, it is growth with reflation attack. -- attached. treasury has more to finance a wider deficit, but also to -- the unwind of the balance sheet. investors this is returning back where they came from. the yields overseas are grinding higher, but the hedging cost is where the challenges have been. if you look at the differences between hedging as a european investor coming into the human at ash u.s. markets, it is no longer a track to. -- once you factor the hedging costs in. >> joining me around the table, jones and back, kathy mike. matt, it went well. 258 billion and the world is still rotating. >> fancy t

jonathan: hypothetical treasury, let's pretend, an anonymous country has a treasury secretary building up a budget deficit, how big of a mistake is it to talk down the currency by this treasury secretary? jeffrey: [laughter] it can be an issue, but the problem is the u.s. has great reservoirs of benefits that short-term discussion may not be able to fully drain. how about that? jonathan: you handled that very well. nick, let's bring it into the conversation. take me into the book a little bit at jpmorgan asset management. how are you guys thinking about it? what are you doing? nick: what is mispriced is the ecb. when you look at policy setting in europe, it is at absurd levels. it is that emergency levels, and you are clearly not in an emergency. so the risk is that we see that ecb raise rates and that will have a dramatic impact on the currency and will lead further to a weakening of the dollar. by year-end, 135 is not unreasonable for the euro-dollar exchange rate. jonathan: are you advising moving away from dollar rated assets? nick: we like the dollar assets in places like high yie

on treasury -- by the selloff or keep on running? >> buy. >> buy. >> keep on running. >> buy it. >> david? >> i think credit is still a good place to be, i think what it will hang in for a couple more years. >> david? >> not yet. >> we had a yellen perp and i am wondering if this time is different. will we have a chairman powell part will we had a chairman? powell put? matt: no. katy: yes. >> yes. david: it will have a much higher strike price. jonathan: it has been great to catch up with you. that does it for us from new york city. we will see you next friday at 12:30 p.m. new york time. 5:30 p.m. in london. we will bring you those comments and reaction with a full round table we finally hear from chairman powell in his semiannual testimony. this was a bloomberg "real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ . ♪ david: you now have had to follow bill gates and steve ballmer, two legendary figures. satya: look, the clear message was don't try to be like us. david: did steve say if you do this well, we will be happy? satya: look, if you do

they don't just focus on treasuries. when you look at the investment grade index in the u.s., you are 375 or something like that, so that is a big pickup both in terms of yield and credit spread if you are coming out of europe or japan. and remember, globally they are still printing money until the end of the earth. jonathan: kathleen, your thoughts on that? kathleen: i think you can watch that near-term movement, that you will get more inflation data coming out of other areas in the world and europe. but the bigger picture i think is a story that was drawing money into the dollar was it was just the u.s. alone. growth everywhere i think caps the potential for money to keep coming in. now the 10-year did hit 295 and came back. so there are going to be levels that are going to be tested. but i think the bigger picture is, rates are going to rise and the influence on currencies, your point about hedging is a good one. jonathan: jeff, you have done a lot of work on this. it is about how you balance a way from dollar-denomin

we know the treasury had more to issue. to finance the unwind of the fed's balance sheet. >> some of this is international investors stepping up from the markets and returning from where they came from. the hedge and causes were some of the challenges will be. if you look at some of the differences such as hedging being and get a european investor, you can't get a real yield pickup getting into the tenure on a relative basis. full house in new york city today, joining me is met one back. kathy jonesback, and mike. matt, it went well. matt: we knew about the supply from a year ago. market is, the treasury did a really nice job handling the supply. when you're talking about supplying impact on the market, in the grand scheme of things, the flow impact is very small. there is a cottage industry of hedge funds that try to monetize these will impact and their so microscopic that it takes a lot of people to try to pick up just a few ticks in the market. >> numbers have been significant. some of these issues have been unprecedente

-- up week for treasuries. on a basis point move, 50 basis points, half a percent. and the prospect of inflation, repricing of risk and rates lower today on the day, helping stocks. s&p 500 on the day, session highs. all day it is higher, up 9/10 of 1%. the question is whether the buyers can hang on to control, especially into the weekend? looking at some of the big movers, looking at the chip sector. philadelphia semiconductor index outperforming with a strong week, up well more than 1% and outperforming the major averages , especially the dow and s&p 500. intel is trading higher. butclear what is the reason macron is also higher. speculation that if qualcomm rejects the broadcom bid then --ron could be a -- macron could the -- micron could be a replacement. thank you for that update. the fed is presenting an overall upbeat view of the economy in its monetary policy report out a couple of hours ago. the report says the u.s. labor market is near or beyond full employment. it finds pockets of elevated assets by

you have treasury. i don't know if you have your group, but each of these regulatory firms are now converging and coming up with how to regulate this industry. now, when you have three or four different regulators out there beginning to pounce, you're going to have over regulation. you're going to quite possibly suffocate this new emerging industry. so, i want to ask you, how do you see that? and is treasury moving? and as the leader of fsoc, will you take leadership in making sure that fentec companies are not suffering? >> a very brief answer, mr. secretary. i'd remind all members to pay attention carefully to the clock. a brief answer, mr. secretary. >> yes. thank you, we will address fsoc. we address your concerns. >> the time of the gentleman has expired. the chairman recognizes the gentleman from maine. >> thank you, mr. chairman, very much. thank you, mr. mnuchin, appreciate the great work you're doing. i want to in particular thank you for your leadership in providing tax relief for families and

weekend was, there was $258 billion of cells from the treasury, the option showing massive treasuries but investors requiring higher yields, and in some cases reaching levels we haven't seen in a decade, spread with eight your notes -- eight your notes commit and investors still craving african bonds, this would there were $14 billion of kenya's offering of $2 billion and securities, proving african debt still has plenty of buyers, still with me now, met for morgan stanley, sayy, and i am pleased to we welcome from london, head of credit strategy at bloomberg asset-management. is the move starting to compete with capital elsewhere into credit and investment growth in high-yield. that is the big question we are debating as credit investors, we do think that yields will move higher than the fed and it is underpriced. , bute a big move of late we think ultimately we're going to get to 3.5 and above for the tenure and the fed is going to byanother four or five hikes the end of next year, and in the question becomes when you have at two or 2.5%, is 5.5 or 6% enough in u.s. high-yield credi

, but they don't focus just on treasuries. when you look at the investment-grade index, you are 375 or something like that, so that is a big pickup of in terms of yield and credit spread if you are europe or japan. remember, globally they are printed money until the end of the year. jonathan: kathleen, your thoughts? kathleen: you will get more inflation data coming out of other areas in the world in europe, but the bigger picture is the story of dried money into the dollar is just the u.s. alone. cap's therywhere potential for money coming in. so there isit debt, going to be levels tested, but i think the bigger picture is rates are going to rise and the impact of inflation on currencies -- your point about hedging is a good one. jonathan: jeff, you have done good work on this, and through the week i have heard arguments as to why loose fiscal actually ends up with a weaker currency and one of the arguments is, forget the insurance debate about loose fiscal and struck monetary policy, the argument now is that the fx channel i

hypothetical treasury. anonymous country has a treasury secretary that the link up a big budget deficit. how much mistake is it for them to go around talking down the currency? can be an issue. the problem is, the u.s. has great reservoirs of benefits that short-term discussion may not be able to fully drain. jonathan: you handle that really well. awant to bring you into conversation. conversation about rebalancing away from dollar denomination assets. take me through the book at jp morning -- jpmorgan asset management. is thehe very clear risk mist price is the easy beat. when you look at the policy section in europe, it is at fairly absurd levels. it is set at emergency levels and europe is not an an emergency. the ecb raise see rates. i will have a dramatic impact on the currency and would lead the dollar. by year and, 135 is not unreasonable for that euro dollar exchange rate. jonathan: your thoughts pivot away from dollar denominated assets? nick: we like the dollar denominated assets in places , fairl

treasury? puerto rico does. yet because of its treatment as a foreign country, the new tax law imposes a 12.5% tax on the income companies received from intellectual property. what a way to kill the manufacturing sector and puerto rico. another example is the community disaster loans. loans instead of grants. another insult. don't you greet me? it is outrageous. it's cruel. . . >> in missouri's second congressional district, of 5,000 employees that represent 5,000 hardworking missouri families they have recently volunteered to pay everyone of their employees at least $15 an hour. hour and in addition increased the investment of the broadband network. the absolute benefit to working families, small businesses with progrowth promises with our constituents. and so to make sure all americans can seem to grow this economy. last week the subcommittee on oversight which i chair had a hearing called following the money of human traffickers to exploit the market. we talked a lot about the emergence of crypto currencies a

today all eyes are on the treasury markets. we had the three-month and six-month bill treasury auction. we are still waiting for that option for the two-year notes. we are seeing yields at their highest since 2008. volatility on the 10-year note is also rising after three sessions of declines. the dollar is recovering and than above --s gains above last year's -- last week's three year low. >> the trump administration is taking another shot at obamacare, clearing the way for -- doing away with comprehensive medical plans under the affordable care act. insurers could sell policies that last up to 12 months and would not have to meet obamacare coverage requirements. the european border agency is warning the number of migrants trying to reach europe through the mediterranean will remain high as your. they are expecting more to arrive through spain. were told today that overall numbers have decreased since 2015, when 1.8 million people entered europe. but migrants are finding new ways to cross borders and forged documents are a maj

in treasury -- in the treasury report on fsoc's designation process, treasury recommended that the fsoc implement an activities-based or industry-wide approach to evaluating systemic risk. similarly, in 2017, the international association of insurance supervisors announced the development of an activities-based process to -- how would an activities-based approach to addressing systemic risk work and why is it more effective than the current entities-based approach? >> i think it's more effective because to the extent that we look at risky activities across an industry or within a sector, we can look at proper regulation that deals with those issues and eliminates systemic risk. >> moving to cyber security. cyber security is one of the most pressing issues. you mentioned that again in your testimony. that faces companies, consumers and governments. the fsoc annual report identified cyber attacks on financial services companies as a potential vulnerability to u.s. financial stability due to the increasing frequency and sophistication of such attacks. where does the fsoc see gaps or shortf

we saw a comeback in treasuries earlier, and a 30 year treasury option. now yields are again gaining ground. will this cycle continue? think i amdon't comfortable in saying yes or no. but it has been enough to push the safe haven trade. they are blowing up the deficit at the same time central banks are pulling back -- we are blowing up the deficit at the same time central banks are pulling back the stimulus. david: michael regan, thank you for being here. shery: the healthy correction, making you sick to your stomach. thank you. let's get a check on markets. the dow continues to fall. the s&p 500 index down one for 7%. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: breaking news. markets falling again today across the board. let's get the latest from abigail doolittle. abigail: we are looking at a selloff for the major averages. we have the dow, s&p 500, and nasdaq down sharply. and 2% or more. the three major averages negative on the year. this is a continuation of what we have seen more recently. a bigst week, we did have selloff. the worst since early in 2016. if we ta

the treasury spokesman has put out a statement to say that both treasury ministers and officials are working hard to deliver the best braves at possible for britain. we will be leaving, but the single market and the customs union and any suggestions to the country is false. it is worth remembering, this week is a big week for brags that. we have several key ministerial meetings. the prime minister has ruled out staying in the customs union. the european research group, they are vehemently against this. this would be putting pressure. he is an increasingly prominent figure. considering he is only a backbencher and a relatively new one. with that in any way explain what happened yesterday night when he was addressing stu d e nts night when he was addressing students question mark yes, a group of 300 and bristol. there was a lively interjection. it was a bit rough and temple. —— rough—and—tumble. it underlines what a divisive figure he can be. just speaking ina a divisive figure he can be. just speaking in a debate can get a crowd who want to stop him. thank you very much. small

so we have a lot of resources at treasury. i think as you know, one of the things we look at is restrictions. we have very prescribed formula of what we can do and what we can't do. but as i said, i'm aware of the problem that exists. >> and you would acknowledge that it's a significant problem for those that have those pensions? >> i would say it is a significant problem. i don't know what -- it's not one with a clear, simple solution. >> yes. >> but we will look forward to working with the committee. >> all right, thank you, mr. secretary. the small business jobs act of 2010 was created to support a lot of local small businesses and to help accelerate growth. that was an important initiative for alabama. i think we created a number of jobs. we got $31 million. but that has now -- that round one has effectively run out. would you support a reauthorization of the sbci? >> not necessarily, but i wouldn't rule it out. again, it's something that i would work with congress and we need to look at more carefully. >> all right. i was

treasury has imposed sanctions on a number of entities. have you seen the secondary sanctions have been effective as a deterrent in regards to north korea? sec. mnuchin: yes, very much so. >> when you look at this, does china have a basic understanding of where and how north korea is using china's banks and economy? sec. mnuchin: i do. >> does that activity occur at the largest chinese banks, including state owned banks, fortis north korea intentionally funnel primarily to the smaller chinese banks that are less susceptible to u.s. pressure? sec. mnuchin: i don't want to go through specifics in this setting, but i would be happy to talk to you about it. we are having very specific ongoing dialogue with the chinese banks. i just sent my undersecretary over there. she met with a large group of people and regulators. we are having very good dialogue with the banks over there. >> we will continue to have sanctions where appropriate. i appreciate that and i would like that meeting to be sooner rather than later in in light of the significantly

you make a good point about treasury yields. treasury yields are picking up. that creates demand for the bond and the currency. it does provide a point for people to get in. the concern is inflation. rishaad: what about interest rates? this is key to where the bond market goes. but it a we've had all pointing toward the possibility we are going to have higher interest rates. that surely blows a hole in most people's forecasts. patrick: real yields are what we need to look at. the market saying, are wages higher, are picking up, is inflation picking up elsewhere, does the central bank have to move faster -- that is what we fear. inflation will undermine your assets. that is why we continue to view a bearish story. haidi: you spoke about this relationship between the dollar, which has come under relentless pressure, almost the credibility of the u.s. dollar coming under threat. take a look at this. i'm wondering, obviously early days -- we had the bounceback when it comes to the shorter end month,se two- three-month yields, but also the dollar recovering. is thi

we heard treasury. they will need to borrow a trillion dollars next three years, off of 600 billion last year. how will we get our struck built? how will we spend on military. how will we build the wall? it will be very tough to reach a deal. david: let me correct one thing. that is what the cbo says how much money will be coming into the economy. really a stat, a static analysis. not taking into account the fact we may have huge economic growth that would actually create more revenues. it might not have to borrow a trillion dollars. i take your point. i want to get back to the feeling itself on the floor among traders. do they feel, i know it is very subjective, but this is the beginning or the end of a correction? >> i do think that we are in a long-term bull market. i think most traders feel that way. however, i think we're in obviously in a rough spot. obviously you saw this little "flash crash" we had when the s&p hit 2700. that was algorithmic by the way. they have to reempower these guys so they

by treasury so i think the latter and smarter strategy is actually to divest and i would also suggest that these parties who have been identified get in front of the treasury department and provide evidence to them as to why they are not they should not be considered as potential sanctions designation. now it's interesting you say that because regardless of how tense the relationship between our two countries has been i think up until recently there was a strong belief at least here in russia dead in the united states businessmen regardless of their country of origin are protected by the rule of law from base kind of political arbitrary in this. i wonder if you can still confidently say that it is the case that the american justice can protect companies that are connected to russia russia as a country rather than the kremlin. can still be protected from politically driven whether it is prosecution of even discrimination yes so there's an old saying here in america the justice is blind and i think that's true and it cuts both ways though it can both be a good thing and in certain circu

more onet's get treasury options and what they mean for fed policy. gina and brianis who cover the bond market, brian, let's start with you. what is your take compared to what we have seen in the two-year option and shorter treasuries? get the immediate results, it is sort of the same, decent demand and nothing that stood out as being really great or really bad as you saw with the one issued those the exact same as the yield that it price that. decent demand, kind of what you would expect for a market that is healthy but absorbing a lot of supply this week. shery: we see treasury yields continued to show up causing some uncertainty in the stock market as well. , and see a hawkish fed without the statement coming this afternoon, what could it mean for the bond market? >> i think it is going to be an interesting thing to watch after a relatively difficult auction. i think one thing we are keeping a laser focused on is what the fed says about inflation. the last meeting was a non-press conference meeting, and we saw the addition of the word further coupl

heels, -- benchmark yields, treasury yields. steven mnuchin is saying he doesn't have anything to do with the fact of whom u.s. is going to be increasing the amount of debt they are selling to finance the deficit. other people say that does is something to do with it. who is going to be buying that? that story is not gone away and that is a plan to stop the credit. david: on one end, you have risk off, certainly less risk than there was in those are very liquid markets and then you have credit markets that are less liquid and that you don't have a signal saying is a lot of risk on. of the might be part reason people are unwilling to sell into a falling market and try to figure out what these things are worth. say, just looking at supply dynamics the treasury market versus looking other markets, ig corporate, we are not supposed to a lot of issuance this year unless there's an m&a boom, so maybe this is a case where a lot of supply of u.s. treasuries, a lot of supply of corporate debt coming online, maybe that is the supply deman

dollar so the dollar is going to lose value no matter what anybody says here's the treasury secretary really trying to make it look like oh that's our balls are for a lower dollar really matter what he says the dollar is going lower as we've been saying for a number of years because the u.s. dollar is a currency that other countries recognize as funding wars and the weapons on the property that they're trying to escape. the program israel the spin described as a beacon of light on hope in the middle east by the u.k. defense secretary gotten williamson also stressed that israel has a friend for life in britain and has been asking people in london if they agree. if you were the u.k.'s defense secretary which country would you call it because of light in the middle east jordan beautiful light on the whole. definitely not the us . put it this way i suppose i would think of lebanon where christians would. appear to work. away living together and sharing political power you're right perhaps he was talking about israel always now i don't agree because of the palestinian troubles i don't subs

is it a risk to treasuries -- is at risk to equities? equities can still rise but i think its to what extent. the three-month yield is yielding 1.6% and they are up three and a half basis points for the six-month bills. is that a major move, anything to be concerned about? john: i missed the first part of the question. vonnie: we are talking about three-month bills and six-month bills moving a handful of basis points. is that an indication of anything or a little sweetener for investors? john: i think there is bound to be some pressure on very short-term rates, partly because the fed are in the process of raising interest rates. but in particular, the u.s. has chosen to focus a lot of its supply in bills and short-dated bonds. upthat requires some give for the market to absorb it. and there is a lot of paper coming so its not surprising of built yields are rising to some extent. vonnie: what is your biggest concern for fixed income right now? usn: the biggest issue for is the extent of fiscal incontinence at this stage in the cycle. as u

in my misspent youth i was a treasury economist at one point i confess a treasury economist at one point i co nfess a nd a treasury economist at one point i confess and they are complex models and it is like cooking, you do to a certain amount getting what you put in. —— get out what you put in. it colours the picture somewhat but on the other hand and you know this as a public service broadcaster have to be in partial and so the civil servants. they are accustomed to it, they understand what is going on and i think it is firm language, i'm not sure it is entirely an accurate picture of what is going on but ultimately what you were saying, the problem really is we have a prime minister who doesn't seem to be engaging in there for everyone seems to be second guessing and not getting in the right way. and the problem is it is all taking a long time and 24—hour news business means people are impatient, they want stuff now. there has been the sort of gap while the prime minister has beenin of gap while the prime minister has been in china and it is, you know, where i'll be going, what

to #btv, treasuries and equities. this is interesting in the market because it underscores as we slice through the 50 day moving average. capitulation, but tomorrow is going to be key when we open because there is a lack of clarity here and what investors are doing to protect themselves at this point. as you say, this is a sentiment driven selloff. banks, wellsout fargo, morgan stanley, and crypto plunging as well. why did we see that the klein? -- decline? >> this has a lot to do with their accounting scandal last year. it triggered this, a fear of god penalty. downgrades from analysts, wall street, analyst after analyst trashing the bank and the stock taking a huge hit as you can see in the bigger picture. meanwhile morgan stanley will be are the blue- they chart, they have been outpacing goldmanggest rival -- got to, all the banks under pressure. let's talk about bitcoin, it was a very bad day for bitcoin. a big drop as all rival corns what one as well, and big coin enthusiasts says it has , it is notolic rise a fu

other asset that's having an impact on treasury, people getting into treasuries, and the yield coming down. other commodities and bitcoin, which are the other asset classes on your radar? mark: certainly, commodities have been holding up quite well. looking at wti crude futures, for example, they have been in a pretty tight range. they are getting to the bottom of the trading range. crude inventories. they are usually considered to be the smart money. crude oil could be the next want to take a tumble. there is a whole commodity complex. over the next couple of days, people are watching what happens in the oil market pretty closely. manus: thank you very much. our strategist looking at some of these. oil down there, talking about the inventories. over 1%. 6348. 6694. let's bring in our guest post. -- host. we can go through anyone of these markets. volatility is alive and raging. if any central bank has the most to lose, the japanese -- these markets are looking perilously close to disorderly. how would you describe the past 24 hours? >> markets are prone to major swings in sentiment.

if, the 10 year treasury will hit 3% of -- will hit 3%? we are determining whether the three decade bond bull market will continue. if it really all about the 3%? there is positioning around the 3% level. 2.95% we hit yesterday. that is the level to watch. the psychological 3% is what is going to be focused on next. when it comes to fixed income, having run numbers means a lot. two-year.25% on a auction earlier this week, which had a buzz on twitter. we have been waiting for that for years. we are seeing some other crucial levels passing 3%, around the high marks from 2011. what are the parts when you look -- puts when you look at the open interest on the two-year yield? >> we are probably headed to 3% next. at the close yesterday, it would likely might get there in the asian session, that we bounced back. once we get to 3%, it is an open question where we go from there. what would it take for someone to say the 30 year bond bull market is over? brian: it depends on how you define it. heard people saying negative returns on your bond portf