jonathan: the buzz word is idiosyncratic. getting told every time i bring up emerging markets, the problem is idiosyncratic and the local.er will remain have things changed? >> today, you are seeing more of a broader risk off tone. that makes sense because what is happening is for those funds that have exposure to em, they're going to want to make sure they have enough liquidity. you go to the most liquid countries to raise that loop quiddity. -- that liquidity. selloff in local markets but i do not expect that to last. this is not the asian currency crisis. we have floating exchange rates. most countries have used external debt. you are seeing the weaker players selloff and that is where there will continue to be worries with the dollar rallying. isontinue to believe em idiosyncratic, not just an asset class at risk for further contagion. jonathan: kathy? time i hear something is idiosyncratic, it is not. it may not be of the same magnitude of other crises we have seen. , lesshard in smaller liquid markets to separate out an

>> this one is idiosyncratic. the junk market has performed well this year. we are neutral because spreads are tight. you've not had any trouble with absorbing big supply. i think this one is a one-off, just a very strange situation. jonathan: kathleen, the supply dynamic changed this week. we had triple c's come to market. we had record treasury issuance. to be clear, the market in the united states is doing fine, absorbing this, isn't it? >> it is, and the appetite reflects that reach for yield is still driving the markets. it is the technicals, and until we see rates move to the upside, the u.s. is looking attractive in terms of 10 year, 30 year, good demand, more attractive yield, and no one is worried about inflation. with triple c, reaching for yield no matter what the fundamentals are, i have yet to hear anyone talking about the importance of cash flow. that is a market being driven by technicals, not reality. jonathan: kathleen gaffney, joel levington, and kathy jones. i want to get a market check of where bonds have been, stable until today. the 10 y

first word of the week for me is idiosyncratic. theep being told him -- problems are idiosyncratic and the spillover will just remain local and condition. is today different? you are seeing more of a broader risk off tone. that makes sense. happening islikely for those funds that have exposure, they will want to make sure that they have enough liquidity. you go to the most liquid countries to raise that liquidity. we are seeing some selloff in the local markets. i don't expect that to last for long. this is not the asian currency crisis. we now have floating exchange rates. most countries have reduced their external debt. you are seeing the weaker players, argentina, south africa, russia selloff. that is where they will continue to be worries with the dollar rallying. i continue to believe that em is idiosyncratic. not just an asset class that is going to be at risk to further contagion. >> i will take the other side of that. every time i hear something is idiosyncratic, it isn't. this time is -- it may not be of the same magnitude

every time i hear something is idiosyncratic, it is not. it may not be of the same magnitude of other crises we have seen. but it is hard in smaller, less liquid markets to separate out and isolate when you are in the throes of a situation like this. later on, there will be some bargains. for the moment, it spreads from one to another and it is never different. jonathan: when you look at the situation and you have this many countries that need to raise short-term rates aggressively, do you choke earnings? before you know it, you've got a different kind of problem? >> i think so but when we are thinking about contagion, we should be looking at countries that look like turkey. i think the issue is that right now, it is not clear there is a country with the private credit tilde -- that it build up and external imbalance of that is on the same scale or magnitude. kathy's point, one thing that could make this less idiosyncratic is you have this big move in the dollar. if that happens, that would make problems more generalized. it is making probl

jon: is it still idiosyncratic? >> the fact that these are really large reasons within the em -- argentina was also in the news and brazil's elections coming up. idiosyncratic but really big blocks of the em space. however, the market does have a tendency to create this gap. it is also august. the think we have thrown baby out with the bathwater on some of these em names. jon: we have seen this when it was not august and liquidity was no longer there. it should be illiquid currency, but it is this wide this week. this is happening outside of august, too. >> true. but i think it exacerbates it. in the fall, we will get a true sense. look at overall market conditions, we are pretty much unchanged. currencies are pretty quiet. euro did touch a near-term low but it did bounce back. we are not seeing momentum in the big markets. vol is sitting there. it has not gone away. markets architecting more volatility. up, the auction block, united technologies firm $11 billion in one of the largest deals of the year. this is bloo

idiosyncratic. really big locks of space. of see onnd of peon it itself. have thrownhat we the baby out with the bathwater on some of these em names. >> we have seen this where it was not august. suddenly, liquidity rates was no longer there. with something like dollar lira, it should be a liquid currency. the spread was this wide through this week. this is happening outside of august. >> this is true. i think it exacerbates it. i think we will get a true sense of where evaluation should be falling toward. volatility should be higher. look at overall market conditions. pre-much unchanged. treasury does a lot of -- -- third euro deed -- did touching low. we are not seeing momentum in the big markets. it could evolve. it has not gone away. markets are expecting more volatility in the fourth quarter. >> george. alongside kevin. and luke. up, the auction block united states now borrowing $11 billion for mark well. one of the largest debt deals of the year. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ on jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield

jonathan: is it still idiosyncratic? >> the fact that these are really large reasons within the em, affecting other areas, argentina was also in the news and brazil's elections coming up. that will be a key focus. idiosyncratic but really big blocks of the em space. it does kind of feed on itself. however, the market does have a tendency to create this cap risk. it is also august. i do think we have thrown the baby out with the bathwater on some of these em names. jonathan: we have seen this with btp's when it wasn't august, where you expected liquidity and liquidity was no longer there. the lira, it should be a liquid currency, but it is this wide this week. this is happening outside of august, too. >> true. but i think it exacerbates it. once you get into the fall, i think we will get a true sense of where valuations should be. if you look at overall market conditions, we are pretty much unchanged. treasuries did not do much this week. major currencies are pretty quiet. euro did touch a near-term low but it did bounce

alix: usually what we talk about is how the turkish issue is idiosyncratic, but now it is, what is the contagion like? we can see it across assets. futures down by 11 points. u.s. faring better than europe, europe down over 1%. the euro-dollar really getting taken down, down 6/10 of 1%, there are technical levels being spoken about, the dollar being a safe haven. the means you are buying core bonds in europe, and the two 10 spread continues to flatten.

some idiosyncratic stories out think to be sure, but i they have been slowly differentiating. i think you are right. i feel there has been more contagion than i would have expected a few weeks ago, but i am still of the belief that we should be thinking about idiosyncrasies. you know, turkey's vulnerabilities are extremely well known areas they are well documented. they have been with us for a long time. new there.thing we can economic policies. nothing new about tensions with the u.s. and turkey or aired on.e -- or erdog and as you reporter was saying earlier, president macri inherited a very shackled economy, and he tried to put in place a policy of globalization while tying it to fiscal policies to not throw it into recession, and this adjustment was associated with borrowing and the current account deficit, the overvalued haze so the bank, the overvalued inflation, and then it can no longer be marriage, so he went to the imf. he went and frontloaded the fiscal adjustment. financing, and that seemed to steady conditions for recentntil the region -- turkish volatility happen

idiosyncratic. you have imbalances, current account deficits on both sides, short-term reserves on both sides, so it's a classic em financial crisis both countries are in a difficult position they both have things they can do it's not clear if they are willing and able to do those things with argentina, they've done monetary policy. they probably need to do more fiscal policy. the question is are they willing to do that in front of an election next year >> are you not concerned about the contagion risk as i was listing the other emerging markets, chances are if you're an investor who has rayed into argentina, you probably invested in other countries as well. >> that's true we saw the rand suffering from that contagion effect. turkey and argentina are in a class of their own in terms of imbalances south africa is not perfect, but it's nowhere near that, but it has a liquid currency. when an investment manager in new york or london is rebalancing their portfolio they will sell across the board and sel

earlier on, it was being viewed as more idiosyncratic. in a less month, the markets are saying, maybe the fed can't hike that much. the rates market is saying this is more than argentina or turkey, this is systemic. this has the chance of potentially slowing the fed hiking cycle. lisa: this is contagion, problematic. i want to get your thoughts. you said you see opportunities and need to dig in there. do fundamental research. what are you doing with your portfolio? are you buying mexican bonds and bonds of other places? if so, corporate debt, sovereigns, what are you doing? iain: we are looking for the areas we like, we like areas like mexico. we have been adding areas like that in the portfolio we have yields up high for the year. obviously it has rallied a lot since nafta talks. it seems to have stabilized. an attractive yield. if you look at the hungarian yield curve, it is very steep. those yields should be anchored somewhat to what the ecb is doing. as was mentioned, the ecb is going to take its time. they are not raising rates anyti

is making the point that it is an idiosyncratic story. most emerging markets find themselves in this. if you take mexico's policy and the risk of the government, what we have seen from president ,rdogan, he has cut governors combining finance and treasury. he gave that to his son-in-law. these are not the kinds of things that give markets comfort. really gets people worried that there is no anchor. mark: when you see declines in the lira at double digits, given resident erdogan was in a combative mood, not once but twice today, the obvious question is -- how much further can the lira and how much higher can turkish bond yields and how much can the market klein? john: -- decline? john: we need to find a market -- an anchor. it is the case of how quickly it unwinds. we cannot stay at these levels indefinitely. they need to borrow money from the rest of the world. the cost of borrowing money is going up. you can get a slow death followed by the intervention of the imf or get it forced by markets. to marketnot reacted pressure like in june. i

is this idiosyncratic? what do you think? mark: alix, they're obviously was a lot of anxiety around the this year, and it was not just the issue of nafta and trade, but it was the election, the border issue, and how the trump administration will sympathize those two and -- synthesize those t andw whethero we will even get a nafta deal. i do think there is a little bit of anxiety, because it is not just a one-to-one issue. n theow have to weigh i canadian discussion, because of canada does not work out, then it impacts the mexico deal. lopez,what about mr. because also from mexico's perspective, they have a new president with a very different economic approach? imposedd a 90-day deadline. that is a good question, david. views.t an expert on his alix: mark howard bnp paribas, thank you for joining us. david: for more on a trade negotiations, we are talking about the negotiations going on right now between robert lighthizer, meeting with canada's foreign minister as we speak to try to reach an agreement before friday's deadline.

yesterday, it was idiosyncratic. investors are concerned about a contagion. but we don't know exactly is to firms exposed to turkey. this is evidence the market will try to analyze over the next few weeks. our view is it's going to 112. i didn't think it would go below 115. it could hang around. there been several differentials. the outlook for risk is poor. that is bad for emerging markets. i don't think that's going to stop anytime soon. jason: we have some expected news in cbi. how do you look at the u.s. in the context of this world it seems to be a flame or unsettled. vincent: it is smoldering. that, itsee data like speaks to that positive differential. it makes our assets more attractive, especially with this kid situation. jane is right. idiosyncratic, now it's a contagion issue. it's at the forefront. alix: thank you so much. we really appreciate it. it is a risk off day. you have contained from turkey spreading. you want to the buying bonds in selling off these assets. night we went to bed last . . jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes to the star

now, em is more of an idiosyncratic story. our strong history is in asia. maybe north east asia does worse. rishaad: thank you very much. looking at why gold has lost its luster. why? this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: this is bloomberg markets and hong kong. at a time -- haidi: at a time when safe havens are wanted, still unwanted is gold. with turkey imploding, still no love for gold. >> exactly. that had been the case for the last year or so. any of these geopolitical events markets, theyed have continued to look to the yen, the dollar, the treasuries as a haven asset. they have continued to look past gold. there are a couple of factors at play. we are seeing equities in the u.s. rising. that has curbed demand for alternative assets. e have to lyons -- bully on -- they boosted the dollar. that is a key. growth, itbust u.s. is boosting the case for the federal reserve to continue to lift borrowing costs. that is a negative for gold because it is an interest-baring asset. interest-bearing asset. rishaad: what is the outlook from here? water analysts expecting

. >> what i hear is idiosyncratic, -- gone beyond idiosyncratic? >> yes. you see it going up across the board. we are in the midst of a contagion face. it is impacting both strong and vulnerable economies. that's going to provide opportunities. great, be saying this is the market is not distinguishing between strong and weak. we have gone beyond that. we are in the midst of contagion right now. >> you're watching "bloomberg best" chinese tech giant was one of many firms reporting quarterly results. >> the crackdown on online gaming in china -- the chinese internet giant suffering its first job in over a decade. to -- toruggled monetize some of its most popular online games. was this the reason the results disappointed? is it likely to weigh on results in the coming months and quarters? >> we are certainly seeing this -- sent shockwaves across the community. fore already expectations regulatory changes, what we are seeing is even worse. core, it is a gaming company. it has significant revenue and profits from gaming. the profit -- the fact that they cannot

tom: one theme today is how idiosyncratic it is. we had substantial turkish lira weakening. we've had kremlin headlines about the u.k. and such. or the we coalescing contagion or the correlations of the market, valid now? >> i think what we are underestimating is the brexit movement has moved on to the continent as well. we have many separatists movements. we still have issues in spain. we feel it in the denmark, netherlands. tom: will we feel brexit in the united states? is thee: the point sentiment of populism is saying we want a different kind of policy environment is everywhere, even in china. tom: how do you fold in the fiscal experiment now? we have a wave of austerity through europe. to look at u.s. auctions and the expansion of u.s. debt. will that be a driver of discussion in the autumn and next year? >> markets are always preoccupied with these epic there levels of debt, but is a return of inflation. every major institutional investors sank i have to get out of cash and something that can out run it. some wealth funds are coming into the equity markets, private equ

idiosyncratic events, that is the watchword of 2018. lisa is sticking with us. she will get -- we will get her perspectives on trading markets. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is "bloomberg markets." i'm taylor riggs. is back lisa shalett with us. we talked a lot about the u.s. stock market. let's widen this out. to a global conversation. china is a worry for investors. it could usher in a global correction. that is how influential it is. we saw in summer of 2015 how it had the ability to really unnerve investors and cause jitters that spread panic. can turkey, speaking of idiosyncratic events, cause the same unease and panic? lisa: i think all to metal he it could if we -- if it's really unwound and a much more dramatic way. obviously, turkey is not china. it all depends on what the interdependencies are and to what extent it touches the international banking system and flows and things of that nature. thus far, turkey has really been melting down all year. particularly through the currency market. you know, the globes absorbed it. i think it wou

. >> the word i keep hearing is idiosyncratic. have we gone beyond idiosyncratic for emerging markets? >> oh, yes, we have. we see correlations going up across the board in emerging markets. we are in the midst of a contagion phase that is impacting both strong and vulnerable economies. that is going to provide opportunities. if i were back in the game, i would be saying this is great, look at this, the market isn't distinguishing enough to create strong and weak names. we have gone beyond that. we are in the midst of a contagion right now. ♪ ♪ >> you are watching "bloomberg best." let's resume our roundup of the week's top stories with a focus on earnings. tencent was one of many firms around the world reporting quarterly results. ♪ >> the crackdown on online gaming in china is hurting tencent, the chinese internet giant suffering its first profit drop in over a decade. this is the messaging platform that has struggled to secure approval from chinese regulators to monetize some of its most popular online games. was this the

joyce, did we learn anything, is this idiosyncratic of retail or broad macro? we have u.s. growth in the third quarter at report 5% and we see u.s. growth taken up as other -- 3.5%. the u.s. story is very strong. the question is confidence going forward. you do have a trend that does look positive for the third quarter. in the fourth quarter, are you at a turning point? you get into the midterm elections. the key things investors are focused on, trade, strength of dollar, what the fed will do, the messaging, and u.s.-china trade talks. overall, whatwth about retail sales growth? 4.5%shows steady growth, year-over-year. do you expect that to continue? driver isunderlying how strong the consumer strength is in their level of confidence. if you look at those measures, the consumer is in a good place. tight labor market. modest growth in income. spending remains good and that is stable. overall, we think there is a good effort this for the consumer to hold up the economy and retail sales. alix: david has a chart on his terminal, a huge bit of retail sales was eating out at rest

alix: but the pricing power of certain businesses then become very idiosyncratic. overall, pricing pressures have decreased. are able toke 3m pass through versus something like walmart or dollar tree. how you -- do you does english that? -- is how do you distinguish that? >> those companies that are globalized have very little pricing power. trade suggesting where monopoly power and the u.s., more pricing to thingst speaks moving higher. david: we will find that out and about an hour in some numbers. seehose move up, will we that for pricing power? [indiscernible] there is a lot of time spent in 2 meeting asking, is 1.9% percent? if you go to the other side of 2%, the risks start to rise. it would be the first time in a decade, so finally sink inflation overshoot, and that would change the narrative in the long-range. alix: what is the trickle through to emerging markets? to me, argentina is the best case study. they are getting pressured by the u.s. dollar. they had their own rates and then had to ask for money. >> some say emerging markets are the innocent bystan

conditions had become political and innocence -- institutions such as the central bank has -- it's been an idiosyncratic case with regard to turkey. >> ha does turkey need to do to turn it around >> several things. give the central bank independence, improve relations with the united states i would say, although relations with u.s.have been politically quite frosty for a year or two now, that's not the main issue that's mainly symbolic what they primarily need to do is institute a goal target which they promise to raise rates again, they signal quietly an increase in rates. they need a back stop program for the banks in case of further weakening. >> i would say the central bank of turkey not tightening rates when the market expected them to a couple weeks ago, when the tightening did come, it was a little too late. that's an element of reasserting independence standing out as far as investors are concerned you see that anything -- imf -- >> it is a possibility they would like to avoid that. however, everything that the imf would recommend, the turkish government is aware of the effective rate is 19.25%

we have been using the word idiosyncratic way too often. today is not idiosyncratic. francine: it touched a record low. it is very difficult when you look at market participants of whether president erdogan can stop the rash. bloomberg first word news. here in london is sebastian civic. plunging even further. there are concerns of runaway inflation and worse relations with the u.s. meanwhile, the spanish bank and unicredit are falling today, possibly from exposure to turkey. there is concern turkish borrowers may default on foreign loans. directors at tesla are moving ahead with elon musk's old proposal to take the carmaker private. they have asked elon musk to recuse himself well they consider his plan. investment drove a strong rebound in japan's economy in the second quarter. an annual rate of 1.9% beat estimates. companies turned to technology to cope with the labor shortage. the u.s.s say maintained a steady pace in july. the new cpi figures released at 8:30, probably rose from 3.9% a year ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by

the not just about idiosyncratic stories. it's about the fact that central bank down sheets are now starting to contract in year over year terms. there's the overhang of trade tensions which clearly effect any small open economy is your typical emerging market. i think people who say it's just about idiosyncratic stories miss the point about positioning and these are global macrodrives that are are driving the underperformance of e.m. markets that have benefited a lot over of the past many years from the expansion of central bank balance sheets. haidi: is it time to be opportunistic in the sense that if there is a broad-based selloff, should you then be going in and rewarding specific e.m. that's do have better fundamentals? >> i think market evaluations are emerging. i think within asia, a good example would be indonesia. where obviously the currency's making new lows but the underlying fundamentals, particularly the fiscal fund menls, are a lot more positive compared to other nation markets. the problem is these pockets of

the end ofwere up at last week, everyone said this is an indio's -- idiosyncratic situation and it will not be contagion. week of people said this that the fx is affected. the turkish president said he will not hike rates. he will not take any needed steps to stem the tide of the lira. that makes investors nervous. now, investors are feeling vulnerable and nervous. ultimately, they are correct. there is not an economic contagion but at the moment, this is about market contagion and that will continue until turkey takes the concrete measures that are needed. talk to me about what trade is like right now. apparently volume is very light. in the early hours in asian trading we did see the lira go to 7.2%, a little more than that. 7.2e did see the lira go to , a little more than that. is anyone purchasing this currency? mark: the liquidity is broken. that is very worrying. worrying that we have broken this market. not only are there 80 billion people. banking sector that is relatively sophisticated. a sad situation is that the problem is quite fixable. overall, turkey should have good funda

you talk about an idiosyncratic risk. are we under pricing the fortitude of the ecb to raise rates? is the market underpricing the trajectory for the ecb? is the market underpricing the trajectory. i think this is a very important question. i do not know. -- my sense isch that when mario draghi's tenure comes to an end, it will probably come with one rate hike under the belt. that rate hike will not -- is not priced into the market now. it is not a hawkish scenario. it will allow president draghi the ability to manage the narrative at the beginning of the tightening cycle that will manage market expectations. it is above the slope of the yield curve. this is where the ecb power is. . yes manus: think you very much. managing director at g plus economics stays with anna and myself. it was the first public appearance since the summer recess. angela merkel has said in german television she expects faster adoption of electric vehicles, which could limit climate change. she added the eu would do better to meet existing emissions targets rather than set new ones. meanwhile, tesla faces pos

>> this is an idiosyncratic name i wouldn't characterize a specialty retailer where they basically operate at the pinnacle of their product sweep relative to everybody else so i look at this a little bit on its own. >> dan, last word. >> yeah, i mean, listen, we're getting a little complacent and the stock market is at the all-time high and some of the riskier names and you want to be cognizant about selling puts because in a stock like this, if you get it wrong you'll put it at a much higher level from where it's trading and that's all i'm trying to say. a little caution here. >> good advice from one hot group to another. the chip stocks have gone wild and the s and h leading the names and amd, nvidia surging 8% and taking a look at one chip stock that you think is about to join the party what is it >> well, listen, it's intel and i've been very cautious on the semis for a whole host of reason, but about a few weeks ago i detailed a bullish idea on amd and for some reason is why i think it makes sense to start to look at intel again as we start to think about what the back half of the yea

i agree if you look at argentina, turkey, they are idiosyncratic stories in their own rights. however, we are in an environment which is a bit more difficult than it has been in recent years for emerging markets because of the changes to the dollar. nejra: is this as simple as investors shying away from economies with current account deficits? because indonesia has that similar to turkey. kristine: it is a big part of the issue, because it is something we saw a few years ago during the taper tantrum era, where a lot of the countries that have a weaker account work rewarded. the ones who made vast improvements were rewarded eventually and managed to rebound. deficits are one of the aspects investors are looking at, but to henrietta's points, there are other factors investors might want to take into account. for instance, the political situation, the central bank looking at that altogether and making an assessment of who is in place to weather the storm. anna: and the turnaround in the dollar trajectory. henrietta, this seems key, even if we got rid of the idiosyncratic risks ar

if we start to see those moves being made, turkey goes from being a in idiosyncratic -- and idiosyncratic story to being a wider issue? contagion is limited. some banks in europe have some exposure in turkey but it is a small part of the european economy. when you look at previous crises in turkey, it never really affected europe or the broader economic outlook. europe is in a difficult position because of the migration deal with turkey and the issue of refugees, they cannot put the pressure that they could do in the past. they have tried to balance this and given the geopolitics, you cannot afford to allow the contagion becoming too bad. francine: thank you so much. greece's bailout program and today, it has transformed the country and its people. it is still the most indebted country, facing higher lender costs. the european commissioner for economic and financial affairs, pierre muscovici, joins us. thank you for giving us your time. talk to me about whether greece is a safe investment destination. why should investors go to greece? today is a historical day because greece can walk on

the former is idiosyncratic but the latter is not. there is this turkey specific thing running around. it has a current account deficit , high external debt that can flee quickly. phenomenon buty the dollar strengthening not only against the lira but against most emerging currencies. that will continue for the near-term so there is a dollar overlay. turkey's issues are made in turkey, not in the united states or with the dollar. look at what is happening around the world at story ist and the em negative. you have got what is happening with the chinese currency and that is insulated. elsewhere, there is a dollar in effect coming through. it is the tide going out and we see who is swimming without trump's on. trunks on. jay: i'm not saying they're not countries with high external debt loads. turkey is one of those. i would say is that the developing world today is better equipped to deal with this than they were 20 years ago. currencies have flexible exchange rate regimes which can act as a shock absorber so you do not have to have a ce

we have a strong run number two, we saw some weakness late this week from a lot of spaces this is an idiosyncratic name. i wouldn't characterize a specialty retailer where they beak operate at the pinnacle of their product sweep relative to everybody else i look at this a little bit on its own. >> dan, last word. >> yeah, listen, we're getting complacent the stork o stock market at all time highs some of the rickyer names you want to be cognizant about selling puts if you get it wrong, you'll put that stock in a much higher level than where it's trading after a potentially volatile event. a little caution here. >> from one hot group to another, the chip stocks have gone wild. the smh having its best week in four months. ahd up a whopping 21%. micron up 8% dan, you're looking at one chip stock you think is about to join the party. >> it's intel. one of the reasons i've been very cautious on the semis for a whole host of reasons. a few weeks ago, i detailed a bullish idea in amd. demeanor some of the reasons i was bullish is why it makes tense sense to look at intel again as we look at the back half

. ♪ ♪ tom: this morning, just me, it is idiosyncratic. we consider the correlated dysfunction of the lira, the rupee and the selected peso. incoming. the debt and the ever greater trillion dollar deficit. it was adams versus jefferson, this thursday, trump versus google. we consider the outlet that alphabet. i'm tom keene in new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance," ne jra, em currencies, quiet. here, here and here, weakening forever. you were ahead of the curve with bringing this up yesterday as well. aboute saw was jitters turkey and argentina feeding through to the rest of the space. we continue to see the lira weekend as well as the rand. tom: we will show the numbers. alex, i love that chart. nejra does, the way it. president trump is optimistic the u.s. and canada can reach a deal on the north american the trade agreement this week. the president is giving canada until friday. justin trudeau says his government is trying to reach an agreement with the u.s. but he says he will not sacrifice the goal of getting the right deal. it is

are we in the land of the idiosyncratic? jordan: we are more broadly macro in the dollar. it has been trading sideways if you look at the broad index. crosses like at euro-dollar, you have italy risking their. hole, once we get past jackson hole, say we get a middle-of-the-road outcome. dollar is not moving much on the back of it. we are moving to september, and it is all about italy. not, there will not be a further blow out from italy. we have cheap spreads versus general -- germany. in october, the european commission doesn't have much to to getyou find a way through on that process more smoothly than the market thanks. there is a reason to be long euro september into october. but for the time being, we saw the pmi's yesterday. the headline numbers are ok. if you look to the details, new orders have been declining in europe and when you look at business confidence, that is at a low. the european story has yet to turn. maybe italy in a month or so could turn that around. guy: i want to bring you pictures of an event right now in moscow. have the russian foreign minister

when you talk about the us in craddock risk, a lot of this is pretty -- about the idiosyncratic risk, a lot of this is percent dictated by the stronger dollar. a lot of investors are looking at all these factors in saying em does not look like the safest place to be. alix: the correlation between the lira and the em pick up as well. idiosyncratic at a point but people are starting to think this could be a broader issue and we could see more contagion in the sense folks do not want to be exposed to em. isx: a lot of the verbiage this is a turkey specific issue or a u.s. issue. mohamed el-erian raised a third point and senate also be about the fed. when it comes to global liquidity the world is in a transition away from a period of loose financial conditions engineered by central banks. affected asset classes especially emerging markets which has experienced considerable capital outflows. there are does good things to take away from that are to watch going forward. we have seen a lot of people focus on the european banks in relation to turkey who was exposed on the lending side and a lo

is a bigger global economic breakdown great whether there is contagion or not, there is still enough idiosyncratic problems in the country a few anelka something you have to worry about. julie: thank you so much. romaine bostick and marcus ashworth, thanks to you both. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. here is kailey leinz. kailey: the u.s. in china will resume their negotiations on trade. a representative to the u.s. for talks later this month. the chinese will meet with undersecretary david malpass. the president backed away from a deal in may. president trump believes his tariffs on imported steel will rescue the industry. the president told the wall street journal that people may complain steel prices are more expensive but they will eventually fall. he said the tariffs protect an industry that is essential to national security. the islamican, state as claimed responsibility for an attack that killed 34 students. it targeted a shiite muslim neighborhood. students were studying for an executive exam. has diedetha franklin in detroit after a career that lasted decades. she suffere