seven republican seats. the democrats must pick up seven republican seats. if they do that -- and it's looking like they can because they're ahead in so many of these republican districts right now -- they will be the majority in the house of representatives. big nights for the democrats in the house, not so much in the senate. but very big in the house. >> no question. as harry enten said, now the question seems to be we've got to get them to the magic number of 23. they still need seven. on the map now with washington state, oregon, and more importantly california still to come in, in terms of targets of opportunity for the democrats. on the map now, more than enough to get to the magic number, the ultimate number of 23. then the question is how much can the democrats build from there once they get there. you look at the map, and the thing that's striking about this, jake made the point earlier. there's no blue wave when it comes to the senate. there's a lot of blue progress when it comes to governors. there is a blue wave when it comes to the house. witho

north carolina, a republican-leaning state. it's a republican-leaning state. let's check on a couple of these to see where we are. republican incumbent, 10,000 votes. this held right about there for a while. you need the vote percentage to get you up higher here. the republican incumbent here, very close, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. it does tell you you have a number of districts some of which were on our list to watch. couple were not where the democrats are in play and being competitive. if the goal is is to get to 23,w 22 because of the called race in virginia, there are places on the map. there are also, i want to clebe clear, there are missed opportunities or disappointments at least on the second tier. democrats have their first list, let's do that. we talked earlier about virginia, talked about the dave brat district here. he's now pulled ahead. democrats were hoping to get two, maybe three, but they were hoping to get two out of virginia. they have one. at 68%, dave brat. that's a narrow lead. still doable. dave brat inching ahead there.

yes, i voted republican, my whole family voted republican and the only thing we need to do is get rid of the democratic governor in louisiana and we may not be last and everything. host: thank you for the call. joining us from columbia, maryland, you have a senate race and a governor's race, what will happen tomorrow? is solidly aand democratic state but i still believe in the power of my vote and i have already voted for governor hogan again because he tolls to go visit my grandchildren who live six to five miles away from me and it used to cost me $16 in tolls to go and visit them. and now it only costs me 12. i am glad of that but the one thing i want to say is i just listened to everything the former president obama had said air,you just played on the and you know what? i agree with everything he said, but you know what else to my he had eight years to make it happen and he never did. and donald trump has been in office for two years and he has made so many of those things happen. i don't think that the democrats want anything wrong to happen to this country. i just think they don

go republican. there is one that has defied expectations, staten island in new york, the republican has won that seat several times now. it looks like he may lose to max rose, that's a surprise, people thought he would hang in, staten island a trump friendly area of york. that is a bit ofa friendly area of york. that is a bit of a shock in the house of representatives so far. and new jersey 11 they are saying, that has beenin jersey 11 they are saying, that has been in republican hands for a long time. right, although people thought that would be spinning. this one, donovan, he is a survivor, people had a target on his back into a 16 and he managed to prevail. not a lot has been truly shocking, if that holds up, it would be one of them. thank you anthony. we will check backin thank you anthony. we will check back in with you in another hours. it is nearly 11pm on the east coast of the united states, that means it is again in the evening in california. polls are starting to ) across the country. what

paul: kemp is running as a trump republican. >> very much running as a trump republican. the voters there have a true, true contrast. paul: dan, what are you looking at? >> looking at florida which is twin with georgia. down in florida, tallahassee mayor andrew gillum, running against republican congressman ron desantis because he was endorsed by donald trump. andrew gillum is up ashamed running as the second coming of bernie sanders. raising minimum wage to $15. raising corporate raise. spending billion dollars for school choice program, medicaid for all, abolishing the u.s. immigration service, giving licenses to illegal immigrants. this guy is in a dead-heat with desantis in florida! paul: desantis has not been a very good candidate, be honest of that. >> desantis is running against the second coming of donald trump. he has rallies gillum, lock him up. lock him up. paul: allegations of influence-peddling. >> this has national significance, paul. desantis is trump's candidate. if andrew gillum wins in florida, that means florida is at risk for donald trump in 2020. paul

republicans, republicans at a 26 seats. >> just republicans did okay in the senate, republicans do have to do some soul-searching. i heard the president say look at his tone, the understatement of the year. if the president wants to win in 2020 and republicans want to future in this country we have to look at how to communicate to suburban women and young people and those democrats republicans got crushed. >> let's talk about key house races democrats did flip, florida 26, florida 27 as well as another one, the new york, 19. >> in all three of those, talking about suburban areas, running on good local issues and on immigration doesn't necessarily work in these types of places, there was the closing message for republicans, wasn't on the economy or transportation. you don't run a local issues that resonate. there are pick ups the president can be happy with, if republicans don't learn their lesson, if you look where the country is growing that is where it happens in cities and suburbs and if we don't figure out how to win. >> that will allow the president to control judicial nominations.

that race is now leaning republican. this would be a republican pickup in the senate there. joe donnelly is the democratic incumbent there. and so the republicans feeling good. that means in indiana he failed to turn out the vote in indianapolis. but it's still early. in the state of mississippi, this would be a historic election, mike espy could be the first african american since reconstruction elected to the senate from mississippi. that is a toss-up in the state of mississippi there. and let's take a look at that house race we were talking about. kentucky 6. this is the race that will be a harbinger of whether the democrats are going to have a wave or smaller race there. amy mcgrath, a special recruit, because she's a former marine corps pilot, naval academy graduate, flew 89 missions in afghanistan and iraq. we'll talk measure about that race in just a second. real quickly, jeff pegues as well, he spent some time at the dement of homeland security looking for any signs of foreign interference in the election. jeff, we heard so much about this concern about the russians

taking over from republicans any maps that are drawn by republicans. it could look a lot different in the coming years. >> katie tur in atlanta. thank you for that. reminder to viewers. elections are successful because of people like the woman we just met. >> vallvalerie. my heart goes out to you. >> crazy. problems, no. >> that's the determination. >> i love it. >> when we come back, joined bid steve schmit. joined by chuck todd. ask them to weigh in on what we're witnesses this midterm election night 2018. let's be honest. every insurance company tells you they can save you money. save up to 10% when you bundle with esurance. including me, esurance spokesperson dennis quaid. he's a pretty good spokesperson. ehhh. so when i say, "drivers who switched from geico to esurance saved an average of $412," you probably won't believe me. hey, actor lady whose scene was cut. hi. but you can believe this esurance employee, nancy abraham. seriously, send her an email and ask her yourself. no emails... no emails. when insurance is affordable, it's surprisingly pa

that's a very good sign for republicans. two good signs for republicans. one is the economy. the economic numbers last week were excellent. unemployment at historic lows. wages starting to go up. you would think it would be an election fought on that ground. it has not been because of president's own desire to talk more about immigration. there are some signs that republicans could some some heart in it, but it's true this generic ballot is one thing we look at closely, and presidential approval, which is tied to how the party in power fares in a midterm election, those are just disquieting for the white house. >> rob, cnn political commentator, also member of the 2020 trump re-election advisory council. why isn't the president screaming economic numbers from the rooftop at every moment given the numbers and instead going for the message of the barbarians att the gate? >> first, the economy is terrific. most people realize that. it plays to his strength, and he should be leading with that in everything he does. >> but he's not. >> he's not, and i think that's a mistake. he is

he talked to his republican leadership about the election of the republican leaders following the 2018 midterm election. [inaudible conversation] >> well, hello everyone. we just had our leadership elections and i have behind me our new leadership team for next congress. and we're excited about maintaining our majority and growing our majority. we're confident we're going to have 53 republican senators to set the agenda next year, to continue obviously with our top priority, which is the confirmation of lifetime appointments to the judiciary, and, you know, we have divided government often in this country. we've had divided government more often than not, since world war ii. so i will be talking to speaker pelosi and house democrats about what we can do together. there are a lot of things that we do together already that i know are not terribly newsworthy to most of you, but we think it is important for the country, and we'll be looking for ways now that we have divided government again to make some progress for the country. so let me turn it over to our new majority whip john thune. >

republican mike kaufman. republicans are pulling money out of this district. they're giving up on kaufman. that is the story for a lot of these districts around the country. the polling favorable to democrats. the money suggesting the parties are seeing it too. basically if the democrats take care of business where they're favored that magic number would come all wait down to single digits. they would just need to flip a single digit number of seats to get control of the house. and that's where you really get to this -- check this out right here. these are the districts that just look competitive. republican-held districts where the democrats have made it competitive. and remember, if they took care of business in the ones where they're favored now, that would lead them, their magic number, to about eight. what you've got here are about 50 districts around the country, republican-held. democrats are in some way or another in the game in these districts. some of them like montana might be a little bit more of a stretch. but i'll give you another example. if i c

a state or district that liens republican and should lean republican tonight. if luria picks it off for the dems, neil that could be a sign the blue wave is in effect an early side for that. that is the way the night will play out. other races we're watching closely. you see odds are in favor of democrats, but certainly republicans do have a chance of holding on in the house. one of the ways to look at it, in terms of probability. remember on election night 2016 we were all saying here that a win for president trump was an unlikely event, but it wasn't an impossible event. most of the models say he has 30% chance or so. most of the models say republicans have 30% chance of keeping the house, something like that. neil: the consensus has often been quite wrong. connell is joining us on the all-night coverage tonight here. we should preface here. connell touched on it. we could get early incations how the night could go, i stress could go, 6:00 p.m. out of indiana as polls close, this battle everyone is focusing on, for example, in kentucky, later on in indiana, v

we had liberal republicans and conservative republicans. it was the conservative democrats and the liberal republicans who could always get together and figure out a way to do something. now, compromise, frankly, has become a dirty word. you know, everybody is talking about unity. i don't see any sign that there's going to be any unity. i think we're in a -- i hate to sound like scrooge here before christmas, but i don't think the two sides are going to come together. i think we're in for a lot of gridlock. >> isn't it up to the president, though, bob, to set the tone for that? he's sent a tweet out this morning basically saying game on to the democrats who want to challenge him. >> well -- >> or investigate him. >> this was the first midterm i can remember when a president didn't seem to want to expand his support, but motivate the people who voted for him in 2016. i don't see that changing very much. >> we have the greatest country in the world, but democracy is messy. >> it is. >> the founders knew that when they established democracy ph

there are big republicans and little republicans. the little republicans have been buffaloed into believing the republican party is for them. the republican party is for the elite. host: what did you like about your new governor? caller: i particularly did not like her but i voted for her. i think she is a little too liberal. we will see how she works with the other side. our state representatives have gone democrat, i believe. maybe they will be able to work together now and get something done. i hope the whole country can get thisher and get rid of all vitriol and work together to do things like health care and things that affect the working man. host: diane in kansas, republican line. caller: good morning. everybody i voted for lost. when i listened to this gentleman from massachusetts, i think that we have to come together as a country. lost,hough my candidates i want to explain a couple things. first of all, laura kelly, i did not vote for her. i'm not worried about it. i think she is pragmatic. i can live with that. number two,

andy barr says, hey, republicans cut taxes. amy mcgrath says, the republicans are messing with i your health care. >> this is a booming economy, people have greater confidence, there's more jobs, wages are growing, paychecks are growing. our communities are safer. our communities are healthier. our nation is stronger. >> i believe health care is a right. not a privilege. not something only the wealthiest 1% or the wealthiest folks that can afford it can have. it is absolutely a right and we need to make sure all americans can have access to affordable and accessible health care. >> a couple of things on the final sunday. number one, it is remarkable how nationalized the climate is. you can go across the country and it's very hard to find races that aren't broken down like that, especially in the house. republicans say, hey, economy's doing great. the democrats say, some people are still working two or three jobs in that economy you're talking about and the republicans are trying to take away your health care. the other thing, s

georgia is more republican. it has a republican lean to it. it's not surprising that a gubernatorial candidate in georgia would run a little behind a dubin -- a democratic candidate in florida. host: with about 50 minutes left, we go to mary in potomac, maryland, independent. caller: yes, i live in maryland but about 10 of us from maryland spannburgerlps outside richmond and i knocked on about 33 doors and out of those 33, only one said that he wwas was not going to vote for brats. . said they were all republicans and now they have switched to democrats because of the lies that they hear. one is that the democrats want open borders and they don't mind gang members coming in. the second one that bothered them was that 18 times, the theblicans tried to repeal three existing condition and health care and now that they won the votes, they are doing a real 180. that's what bothered them the most. host: take us to that virginia house map. guest: that was initially drawn as a republican gerrymander. republicans thought they would hold onto the second

not monolithic there's a big minority is republican and they're strong republicans. in our national survey of a lot, we found there's of satisfaction with the current lot more people were saying they were worried about latinos worsened compared to last year. mirrors thegs only same feelings that they had in the middle of the recession. hardos are really having a time right now. the possibly led into greater engagement that we saw midterm.is however, they intend to vote and remain mostly the same and when exit polls among 70% of themlmost voted democratic but almost 30% voted republican. very similar to the vote that we saw in the last election, now broke. it's actually very consistent. feel that they are not in a good situation. they are more enthusiastic about voting. partisan lineshe are truck. both -- enthusiastic. both sides are engaged and campaign out and voted almost in partisan lines they have. >> this may be a question that answer given your research has. sayeems to me, let me just it, the republicans say at least one republicans, including in the white hous

he said two years, republican house, republican senate, he's gone chunks of money. what does he do next, now that nancy pelosi doesn't want to build the wall? >> this is where the battle is. the republicans, one of the big failures especially under paul ryan's leadership, was not to advance the issue, not only the issues around border security, the wall, but a complete package around visa reform, immigration system, visa over his days, this is all going to stall on the american people. it's not going to get through with the democrats, there is no doubt about that, and the big lie here is the lie being told to the "illegal aliens" who come to the country that democrats are going to give them something, because when they have other super majorities, they've given them nothing. it's a wedge issue they like to have ended will continue to affect many lower income americans when it comes to wage depression. we are talking about politicians, but i got to tell you, americans pay the price for this. >> julie: judith come i want to take each of the board paired arizona come a

seven republicans leading in districts now held by republicans. one of the things we're seeing tonight is the remaking of the american political map. in the houston suburbs in texas, democrats are leading in congressional races. republicans leading in rural minnesota. white, rural areas that used to be the backbone of the democratic labor party in minnesota, we're not saying these republicans are going to win, but they're leading. this is donald trump's republican party. it's a different republican party. it was happening before donald trump, it's accelerating under him. now the democrats, 19 more they need. as we start to get results in new york and new jersey this is where you see more targets of opportunity. three democrats leading right now. early votes coming in. here's one of them here. the republican incumbent, 52 to 48. again, low vote count. very early. strap in. this is one of the democrat's targets right here. this one, wolf, close to home. buffalo, can chris collins, he is under indictment for insider trading. they were trying to get h

there are currently nine toss-up, four held nine held by republicans and four by republicans. i've been saying that republicans are probably pick up couple senate seats. your thoughts. >> it seems likely. >> because of the red state advantage. >> right. the map for democrats is about as any map a party has had in a very, very long time, maybe in history. the three states i'm looking at right now are north dakota, tennessee, and texas. those have broken in favor of republicans in recent weeks. >> people are coming home. >> people are coming home. if republicans can hold on there, democrats have no path to the senate majority. the single biggest question of the midterms may be whether trump's brand of splax net wpol net winner or a net loser. in previous elections like the pennsylvania house special, that turned out to be the opposite. it ended up mobilizing more democrat voters. that materialize and potentially save democrats in some solve these. >> let's talk about personalities. everybody is good at numbers these day, but personality. somebody like tester with a crew cut who

the republicans did nothing about it. they just kept going ahead. >> hopefully the new leader takes charge. lou: jim jordan comes to mind. >> we'll have a fight real soon. the most important thing is get him out right now. lame-duck session. the president needs a couple things to get done before they all go home. lou: the president, this is nothing new facing opposition from the democrats. nothing new for him facing opposition in the house of representatives. the dems have to work hard to do as much damage as paul ryan did. >> equally as important, if pelosi is the leader, which i assume she is, has got a very, very diverse element behind her and try to get all the cats in the same direction is not easy, and she's not going to get much room. her idea she wants to run impeachments and the rest of it, my sense is have at it. you'll get nowhere and lead yourself to minority status in two years. lou: i don't know if it was my inference or her projection, as she was asserting herself as leader of the dems she was trying to cal

republican held house seat in the virginia suburbs of washington d.c. has gone decisively to the democrats jennifer has defeated two time congresswoman barbara comstock fifty four point four percent to forty five point six percent. so what makes these polls so important well republican party is bracing for like the loss of seats in the house of representatives rivals the democrats need to going to into three seats as a correspondence of to take control of the chamber of commerce and if this happens it could allow the democrats to launch several committee investigations of the troubled ministration and possibly even impeach the president himself as for the senate several democrats are fighting to keep their seats in states the trouble in twenty sixteen so the republicans believe they can retain control of this chamber thirty six of the fifty us states are electing governments some of which are considered tossups republicans control twenty nine governorships the democrats have twenty one just the sage which is assistant professor in residence at northwest

republicans rallying. they still looked gone for republicans. those are the ones that came right back into the picture post kavanaugh. we had a positive, the sudden son valley of new york, trump won the district, but by only a couple of points in 2016. and the poll urster said they saw a number of people maybe not winning, but not getting blown out with. and i'm wondering, if you see that in a district, you have a uniform shift across the board, there's this whole vast mushy middle right there. on a additional day, democrats are getting 50 plus. and a swing of two to three points is a swing of the pendulum. >> so you have races that are one or two-point races. if it's a wave, they all tilt uniformly in one direction. and it's hard. you can see how republicans may mitigate the damage in the house. but if there is a wave, it only goes democratic. that's disk to see, right? that was the question of whether trump had an opportunity to mitigate that damage. >> so steve brings us these polls that are reflective of something bigger in the country. a mo

nancy pelosi outsmarted house republicans leadership and she knew republicans would not do well if the elections were nationalize. locald them run hyper campaigns on local issues. was advisingsi them to run hyper local campaigns, isn't that a good sign that republicans should be running a nationalize campaign the failure to fight the deep state, rather than join the president to janet -- to , specially inp the area of border security and immigration reform. the permanent government, others call it the deep state. working toere it is undermine the president's ability to an act his agenda, the agenda that won him the presidency. this opposition strikes at the core idea of a valid republic. it is anti-democratic. it is -- it refuses to knowledge at the system of government and choices are supposed to be made by the winners. the words of the declaration of independence say that to secure these rights government amendments, deriving their powers from the consent of the governed. the government is supposed to work for the governed. it is supposed to be directed by the government. we do that

or continuing with republicans. the house of democrats. i think there is a chance that so many people are energized or turned off. the fact of the matter is when you're at 38% or 39% job approval and you're energizing everyone, those numbers don't work for you. >> that also begs the question, if democrats don't take back the house, when you look at where the enthusiasm is among democrats and now kind of narrowing, what the heck does that tell you? >> it tells you that the trump formula is much longer lasting and much more fundamental to change than the country. i don't believe that's the case, but if the democrats don't retake the house, i think you're looking at a realignment of our politics in this country for a long time to come. >> i'm going to play the sound bietd from president trump. this happened on friday but it's just too good not to play again. his inner monologue once again coming out about what is or isn't exciting to talk about on the campaign trail. >> they all say, speak about the economy. speak abou

i mean, the republican party is a joke. >> i'm a long time republican and i think they do a good job. >>> an historic turnout in early voting foreshadows a potential record wave on tuesday but will it be blue or red? will the outcome make a difference to the president? >> i'm a much happier person than you would believe. >> but will he be on wednesday morning. that's the question. a very good day to all of you. i'm alex witt at hamas nbc world headquarters in new york. the vote on america's future rolls on now. less than than 4-1 hours than the polls officially open. can surrogates zigzag. today the "wall street journal" poll, democrats are preferred. meanwhile, as historic early voting keeps growing. one expert calling it uncharted territory with nearly 35 million ballots cast, more than the entire 2014 midterm election. and in the crucial race for governor in florida, democrat andrew gillum is attracting hollywood star power but he's in a statistical tie against democrat ron desantis. >> florida with me as governor will continue to be a success story so as we're going into 2020, tha

i was once a republican, but republicans left constitutional law, rule of law, and high moral standing. i could no longer vote for them. they left me. i did not leave them. ,ow i hope that the congress that they stand strong and stand firm, but they do it within constitutional law, rule of law, and high moral standard. we do not have that today because the republicans in the house and senate decided that they would go a long with trump and his tactics whatever they were. when trump came out and said he grabbed women by the body part and not one republican outside , the greatich governor of the great state of ohio, not one republican stood up for his wife, mother, daughter, granddaughter, nice, aunt, cousin, next-door neighbor, or his constituent, not one. they have left all of that behind for a -- and i will tell you what i call him -- a reprobate. timothy,cond book of the apostle paul said he is a reprobate. they left all of that for that man. i can understand leaving it for a good man, but they left it for a terrible man. host: kathryn, was that the moment you say the republican part

there are three big, big problems for republicans. the first is that trump's approval rating among women with college degrees is 27% in the most recent nbc/"wall street journal" poll. 70% disapprove. of course, 64% of men without college degrees approve of trump, so we don't just have a gender gap, but a gender canyon, but the problem for republicans are the people most likely to vote in a midterm, women with college degrees. we also have a record number of republican retirements. if they flip 12, that would be more than what they need for majority. and we're seeing bonkers democratic fund-raising. the democrat raised more money, that's almost half of republican seats in the house. and so that has the potential to create some election night surprises. >> speaking of money, there is a money problem on the republican side in senate races, too, and one place where they're missing an opportunity, i'm hearing complaints from republican consultants all over. minnesota. last minute the they're throwing money into it. i'm hearing if republica

and i am part of the republican tribe so i have to go through republican leader an i was like what -- this is a guy with a ph.d. this is not a dope okay. this is somebody very smart and yet -- he was essentially admitting that tribal nature of the republican rallying around trump. which i found appalling abhorrent because reason i supported republican party in the past was because i thought that mistakenly, obviously, i thought that republican party is the ideal that i believed in. there wasn't just like root for sports team and you continue the rooting even if players and jersey change. but obviously, i have a very naive view of politics because people view it in tribal terms. >> how much do you think that -- fear of trump played it among republicans given -- the amount of the -- girve the forces that he can unleash with a mere tweet. do you think that a lot of folks who you -- spoke with in 2015, 16, were concerned about the impact on them? with forces he could unleash? >> i think there's different motivation for republican support. with a lot of the republican base they support him

i will start with you. >> as a republican, i can't say from the republican side of it helped or hurt. generally what we have seen in the past, very little impact with the one exception, oprah going back to 2008, oprah has a substantial impact on the rise of barack obama. >> she said vote for hillary clinton and hillary clinton lost. >> let's be clear, she won the popular vote. she did lose the election. what a difficult landscape in 2016, we had democrats in office for years, i agree they don't make a significant difference but if they make a 1% or 2% difference in an area, a state or congressional election where the difference may carry the day, it could help. let's not forget, not necessarily vote for my candidate but get out to vote. if they can get their people out to vote it could make a difference. heather: she is standing at the podium behind huge campaign sign, it is obvious -- >> no question about it. heather: majority of americans oppose stars getting involved in politics, 60% say they oppose it compared to 40% who support it. >> not that surprised. even 1% or 2% change from

you go out and vote for a republican house and republican senate, republicans at every level of government. >> who we are is on the line. we can't take this lightly. we've got to fight for this. don't vote republican. >> martha: president trump and former president obama out on the campaign trail. of course it remains to be seen which side is more fired up at this point. let's bring in the rest of our panel, host of "the ingram angle," and a political analyst, juan williams. anchor of "the daily briefing," dana perino. and marie harf. welcome to all of you. great to have you here. at laura, let me start with you. in the early going, you are assessment of the information that we have and how it looks tonight. >> laura: i think there are two camps in america, one that feels really battered and abused by the mainstream media. not everybody, but some on the left who are still referring to a lot of americans as a deplorable's, stupid. they are voting against their interest, women voting 4. and they have kind of silenced folks out there who don't much like to talk to pollsters and are not all th

there are some big minorities that a are republican and theye strong republicans. in our latest survey, , national survey of latinos can we found there was a lot of dissatisfaction with the current situation. a lot more people were saying they were worried about the situation of latinos and the fear worsened compared to last year. actually those feelings only mirrored the same feelings that they had an 2008 in the middle of the recession. latinos are really, really having a hard time right now, and that possibly lead into the greater engagement that we saw before this midterm. however, they intend to vote remained remains mostly the same. limassol the exit polls among hispanics, we saw almost 70% voted democratic but almost 30% voted republican. this is very similar to the vote that we saw in the last presidential election, how it broke. it's actually very consistent. they feel that they are not any good situation and they are more enthusiastic about voting, but both sides on the partisan lines are enthusiastic. both sides are engaged in came out and voted almost a

particularly for support of republicans? guest: i could not put a specific number on it but it is significant. the philadelphia media market is a really expensive market to begin with. you have the fitzpatrick race over in south jersey -- you have the fitzpatrick race. there is another race in south jersey. those markets are just not as expensive and a little bit more of a reach for democrats. is a lot of national attention on the state. host: for the telltale signs for you? guest: we will look for what goes on in the first district. that will give us a sign. if brian fitzpatrick loses, that's a good sign the democrats will be able to win a majority. that is a tough race. he is a strong incumbent. if he loses, a lot of incumbents could be in trouble in the nationalized race. your local profile does not count as much as democrats' desire to vote against republicans and put a check on president trump. i will be watching the 10th and 16th. if they pull the upset, is not just a majority. in might really be a big wave for them. i

these are seats once held by republicans. republicans picked up a couple of democratic seats but certainly not enough to offset the losses. we are down to eight races in the house of representatives, seven of them could be democratic pickups. if that is the case, we are going to see the house democratic lead increase. one interesting race we can show is this republican. this is mia love. she is a republican african-american woman in the house of representatives. looks like she is going to lose right now. that was an interesting race that we have seen one of many across the country in the past 24 hours. >> on the house side at the higher end of projections in terms of democratic pickups, on the senate side, on the higher end projections on the republican pickups. >> you are absolutely right. republicans started at 51. they are up now to 55. they have picked up three democratic seats. let's see what we did there with the house. let's see what happened. these races are very, very important. claire mccaskill in missouri. she lose

george is more republican, has the republican link to it. it's not surprising again that individual candidate in georgia would run a little bit behind a gubernatorial democratic candidate in florida. >> host: with about 15 minutes left, we can to marry in potomac, maryland, independent. >> caller: yes. i live in maryland but about ten of us from maryland went to help a suburb outside of richmond. i had to knock on about $33, and out of those 33, only one said that he was not going to vote for brett. the reason was that the 33, the other 32 said that they were all republicans and now they switched to democrats. lies that trump is talking about. the main one is the democrats want open borders and they don't want any members coming in. the second one that bother them was that 18 times the republicans try to repeal the pre-existing condition in healthcare, and now they want the votes, they are making, doing a real 180. that is what bothers them the most. >> host: that is mary in maryland. sean trende take it to the virginia house map. >> guest:

can you talk to me about republicans? recruiting efforts the cycle, to get women, and what it says about the party when there is a lack of women running and who are nominees? >> a number of things. we have the most republican women running for congress we have ever had. coming offng, we are majority thet republicans had since the 1920's. there are not a lot of competitive seats for us to recruit in. since there are fewer seats, there are fewer options for us to recruit other folks. we have great female candidates, diverse candidates. the 39th congressional therict, she is going to be first asian -- korean republican elected to congress. florida, authern cuban-american. amazing candidate. delegationber of the and will be a rising star. >> we have heard a lot about the post kavanaugh bump for republicans. -- what is one race that has been help? >> either side would agree there was a balance that help all of the races. there is onethe that stood out. that had to do with the fact the republicans chose to run. from what we hav

it would be small, and now it will be smaller than the republican majority that republicans have right now. and they have had a hard times getting things through. it would be a small majority. what we are talking about is the ability to control the senate floor schedule and having a gavel being able to call hearings and things like that. not really moving serious policy, and it was extremely likely, and now certain that republicans would have a majority in the u.s. senate, and majority will be at the other end of pennsylvania avenue. -- and president trump was going to be at the other end of pennsylvania avenue with a veto pen. from a policy perspective, there was not much of a prospect for change. for me, it was in the states where there was, and still is a potential for real change, because as everybody in this room knows, over the last 20 or 30 years, washington has been unable or unwilling to deal with a lot of problems facing the country. as a result, it created a vacuum and the states have stepped in. and then you throw in the big gains that republicans had in the 2010 midterm el

a previous republican caller implied. it has gone to a point -- got into a point where they use this out --o get their face base out. there is an extreme side of the republican party that lacks compassion. he tells them i'm going to fix all of these things. said heemember, trump could fix the immigration issue, work with democrats and republicans, he could fix the health care issues. work with democrats and work with republicans. he could help our economy. the economy looks great. month, we had $120 billion -- we had a $120 billion debt, which is on track to be a 1.4 chili delegate for the year. we are not paying for anything. for the4 trillion debt year. we are not paying anything. the republican party has not asked the american people to pay for anything. we just borrow the money from china and all these other countries. where the children and grandchildren will have to pay back. host: military spending is the ground for a discussion later in the program. we will talk about military discussion -- military spending at 9:

can you talk to me about republicans? toruiting efforts this cycle get women, and what it says about the party when there is a lack of women running and who are nominees? john: a number of things. we have the most republican women running for congress that we have ever had. another thing -- we are coming off of the largest majority the republicans have had since the with -- since the 1920's. with that, there are not a lot of competitive seats for us to recruit in. since there are fewer seats to recruit in, there are fewer options for us to recruit other folks. we have great female candidates, diverse candidates. in the 39th congressional district, she is going to be the first asian american -- first korean female republican elected to congress. salazar, in southern florida. a cuban-american. an amazing candidate and will be an amazing member of the delegation and will be a rising star. alexi: we have heard a lot about the post-kavanaugh bump for republicans. whether it is in enthusiasm or donations. you have seen how the

for republicans. he will be joined by some top missouri republican officials, including the governor, mike parson, and just trying to get out that republican energy. this is a very republican state and yet the race between holley and mccaskill is neck and neck. we're hearing from hawley that claire mccaskill is too on the other side, claire mccaskill's closing argument is that she's a moderate who can work across the aisle to get things done, that she's not going to washington to fight president trump but fight for missourians. we'll see if that closing argument holds. we'll be here on the ground the next two days through tomorrow watching for any new developments and we'll keep you updated, poppy. >> she's running that ad talking about crazy democrats, clearly trying to hang on to this thing. thank you so much. to georgia, where the governor's race has made national headlines, especially when it comes down to voting rights and national security. it is shaking up once again. republican candidate also

, in fact, i saw republicans in two national surveys which generic ballots republicans did much better than women than they had throughout the entire cycle and in fact, with independent women it was dead heat which is the first time i had seen that this cycle. democrats had to pick up 23 seats and can see scenario they can get 19 or 20 but not get the last 2 or 3, having said that, it's equally likely they pick up 40 to 50 seats, it's jump ball, understatement. heather: what about -- can i ask you, what about the late-breaking numbers you were talking about, the difference in enthusiasm and this uptick, support from women, what difference will this make late in the game? >> early votes so far which i monitor closely on behalf of clients that i have seen, even though you see democratic enthusiasm be up, the two groups have control, one on democratic side i have seen lower enthusiasm in minority groups, democrats bring president obama to motivate them. the other side of that and this is what president trump is doing with his rallies, rural voters are up, if 2016 rural voters that elected

republican senate leadership quickly blocked the bill. senator flake then announced that his fellow republicans can't count on his vote for any more judges or anything else until they pass the protect mueller bill. >> i would like to take this opportunity to say a few words about what special counsel mueller and his team have been investigating and why. as the point of this vital investigation seems to have been purposely confused and maligned by the white house in a rather alarming way. this bill was designed to do one thing, protect the integrity of the special counsel's investigation and spare it of any influence and interference from the executive branch, including from those who may themselves be the subjects of that investigation. this special counsel was appointed to thoroughly investigate the attacks on our electoral system by elements of the russian government during the lead-up to our 2016 general election. one would think there would be unanimous national resolve to get to the bottom of such aggression from an enemy foreign pow

what appears poised to be another republican to democratic flip in the house. and this is a weird one. just check this out. just in the last hour the new mexico secretary of state adjusted the vote count in a race we had previously thought was decided. now, this was the second district of new mexico, a seat left open when republican steve pierce left it to run for governor of new mexico last night. he lost. the reason i say this is weird one because last night the republican in this race yvette herrell she was the projected winner in this. the democrat in the race, she didn't concede. she said she was waiting on votes that hadn't yet been counted. well, sure enough of the right now the local station kob is reporting the votes have been turned. apparently there's still another 100 ballots that need to be hand counted plus another 1,000 provisional ballots to be tallied. but as it stands right now with the addition of those 8,000 ballots nobody knew about last night it kind of looks like a republican hasn't won in new mexico at all. that in fact small as a 3,000

get, or republicans have now. so they get the power to schedule the house floor, they get the gavels, the ability to call oversight hearings, the ability to it issue subpoenas, things like that. but from a policy standpoint not so much particularly within spoiler alert, republicans are very, very likely to get have a majority in the u.s. senate and president trump is still going to be in the white house with a veto pen. now that's the house. there's a wall, the wall mitigates the democratic wave to a point but probably not enough. democrats probably feel it. in the senate that republican seawall i was talking about, it is a lot taller, and we talked about this. it is a lot taller than it is in the house, and the wall looks taller than the wave. and so that's why if you allowed me a ridiculously wide range of outcomes, it's anywhere from democrats picking up two which is what they need to get a majority all the way to republicans picking up four, but the most likely bell curve would be republicans pick up a seat or

republican congresswoman martha mcsally conceded a seat previously held by republicans. now all eyes are on florida, the state that made recounts infamous is reviewing votes around the clock, across the state, because of the thin margins in some pivotal races. florida's high-profile u.s. senate race is hanging in the balance. democratic incumbent bill nelson has been trailing republican rick scott by about 13,000 votes. ballots are also be recounted in the florida governor's race. democrat andrew gillum, who withdrew his concession, is running about 34,000 votes behind republican congressman ron desantis. also undecided tonight the mississippi senate special election. democrat mike espy and republican cindy hyde-smith are set for a runoff two weeks from now. and in the georgia governor's race democrat stacey abrams is fighting on, hoping to close the gap with republican brian kemp. a judge has ordered thousands of provisional ballots to be reviewed. we're tracking all the uncalled races and what hans next. let's go to wolf, who's with john king at the magic wall. wolf. >

only three republican senators voted against that bill and now the president and other republicans up and down the ticket across the country claim to be the party helping people with preexisting health conditions. senator mazie hirono joins me from hawaii. you came back from the midst of cancer treatment to cast that vote. and what must it be like for you to watch republicans attempt to tell people that they're the party that will protect people with preexisting conditions? >> i think the people of this country will not be fooled by the party that has been, for years, trying to repeal the affordable care act which, of course, protects people with preexisting conditions, one out of four, in our country. i do not think that people of our country will believe that the same people who have been trying to do them in on health care have suddenly seen the light and will protect their health care. so let's get real, people. you know, they're not going to be fooled. they will have a chance in the election to make sure that all these people who are lying through their teeth will not be elected.

jillian: abc washington poll, trust to handle health care and democrats 50% republicans, republicans 34% right now, so what does that tell you, capr sni. >> i mean, that it shows that the democratic party, one area where they've had significant amount of credibility over the years obviously there have been a lot of des cushions and concerns in the wake of the affordable care act otherwise known as obamacare, more difficult to take something away from someone once they have it and i think that as time has past and the republicans were incapable of doing what they said they were going to do even with the fully-controlled congress and the presidency to repeal and replace obamacare and part of that frankly due to concerns surrounding preexisting conditions which was part of the bill that they also presented that failed by just one vote in the united states senate. so i think that those republicans as well as that we are expecting repeal and replace to happen, also disappointed in republicans for not pulling that off as well. democrats have always had, you know, strength here with medicar

that is true of republicans too. he could not have gotten through the two supreme court appointments without help from the republicans and the tax cut without republicans' help. the democrats are going to introduce him to how miserable it can be when the other team in town has power. francine: do you believe the democrats will actually go after president trump with fresh investigations or just pushing current investigations on russia and the president and if yes, does that change the president's foreign policyy? >> i think he is still going to have a lot of latitude on trade policies and foreign affairs. the presidency is designed that way and there is probably little that the house can do to disrupt the things that trump is pursuing on those fronts. it is going to be more on domestic policy issues that they are going to make his life hard. i think you'll see a wave of subpoenas from this house targeting trump an other members of the cabinet on things like potential conflict of interest. francine: when does it end? o

and that is what republicans do. thank you. when weat are we seeing put up these hypothetical democratic candidates against president trump? how are they doing in your generic polls? guest: our same-day poll, as i was saying before, independent of who we put, whether it is biden or someone generic, they outperformed trump about 10%. i want to emphasize, that is indicative of today, the electorate that showed up on election day who is much more democratic leaning. the high turnout helped them. we have to be slightly different. we know an incumbent has a built-in advantage. what we saw with this higher turnout was much more democratic profile and about a 10 point on average lead of any hypothetical or real democratic candidate. host: we would like to >>>> the white house did not release an address this week. connecticut senator chris murphy deliver the democratic weekly address. he talked about the midterm elections and health care. senator murphy: i'm chris murphy, senator from connecticut. president trump could not even wait 24