kathleen: i am kathleen hays. welcome to daybreak asia. rising food costs and -- china's leaders with a headache amid new doubts about a trade deal. the price seems right for alibaba, singles' day off to a scorching start as shoppers around the world look for bargains. election,s a fourth but early suggest -- results to gamble may not pay off. we are live in madrid. haidi: to gamble may not pay off. we are live in madrid. haidi: let's hear how the trading week has started with markets coming online. sydney starting trading. investors after a bad week of trading, looking for a new catalyst. so for the next step up with trade negotiations, not much has developed but it is a big event risk week when it comes to the asian data, not least of which , industrialles production. domestic activity out of china with the deeper numbers out of china recently. theey on the back foot as day begins, new zealand trading up 1.25%. we are seeing when it comes to trading in the u.s. session this week, mildly positive after the s&p cl

kathleen: i'm kathleen hays in new york. ceos -- nine that is one of the key findings from a new survey by china focused audit firm markham bernstein and pinto lake. they did this in combination with seem university. sue bernstein is the comanaging partner, joining us from beijing. it is a great survey. is this the first time you have done it? it is very comprehensive. was our initial survey. andre incredibly thankful grateful to the university for inviting us to participate. it has given us some very unique insight to the way chinese ceos think. where chinese leaders are focused on investing. we have a chart to put up to illustrate what you are saying. >> yes, the focus we found in -- isurvey is that the that it has really shifted. you can see the shifting to southeast asia, europe, africa. i would put the middle east in their too. what would be really interesting would be to see the competitiveness of chinese companies within these markets. is someone in africa going to be vying for alibaba or amazon? it is going to be int

kathleen: i am kathleen hays. requestmocrats have a witnessed by republicans to testify this week as impeachments begin. begin.achment hearings they will only include people with knowledge of president trump's actions and not joe biden's son or the anonymous whistleblower. is there a pattern to the names on the republican list? in such a way democrats are saying yes to some and no to others? >> there is. the republican list includes people from the 2016 election, involved in providing damaging about hillary clinton and donald trump. those people are a part of a group which explored ukraine prior to the phone call president trump had. what the republicans are saying is you have to understand what was happening in ukraine before that call was made to understand the president's state of mind as he was making the phone call. democrats are saying it is not the issue we are talking about. we are focused on his actions in the phone call, the quid pro quo holding up military aid in return for a promise of doing investigat

shery: kathleen hays, thank you. later we will have kathleen's exclusive interview with the anz governor after he defied cut and kept rates on hold. we turn now to a wall street expert, denise simon is cohead of debt at lazard asset management. you withreat having us. we talk about the fed being on hold as well as others central banks in new zealand, but we have still seen financial conditions being loose, the gdp chart on the bloomberg right now showing financial conditions remain accommodative. how is this for emerging markets? >> it is very supportive. we have seen manufacturing pmi's and emerging markets looking like they bottomed out during the summer. so for this to be sustained if there is a phase-one trade deal, you could see that sustained. and when we look at forecasts for emerging markets growth next year, it is focused to pick up relative to developed markets. so i think financial conditions have been supportive, along with many emerging market central banks think able to ease as well. you note interestin

kathleen: i'm kathleen hays in hong kong. u.s. and chinese authorities confirming any trade deal would concessions, and the news sparked a rally. to coo of theurn advisory firm international capital strategies. from whatgh the noise is significant here. markets are so nervous. any headline that says nothing is going to happen, everybody trades on it and there could headlines before suggesting they are methodically working. >> this is a particularly active newsday for trade-related issues, and i think part of it is the chinese are using the press as part of this negotiation now. i would not be surprised if we don't have a lot of twists and turns in this story as we lead up to whatever the date is that the leaders decide they are going to actually meet and agree to whatever the phase one deal is, and i do think there will be an agreement on a phase one deal . --hink trump has been president trump has been pressured and his commitment to move forward and the message out of the white house has been he wants to deal -- he wants to do a

rishaad: we have kathleen hays joining us. all these things are seeing signs of a slowdown in the rest of the world. the fed and fed officials -- they are upbeat, but are they being pollyanna can? >> the economy is in good place. that is what you hear from one official after another. admit, consumer spending surprised the latest quarter and continues to be the mainstay of the u.s. economy as the trade war has swirled around it. growing payrolls, rising wages. the yield curve was a big worry before the three rate cuts. no longer inverted now. the fed cut rates three times since july. so whyy policy works, would they not expect this to go through? big wakely remove the on sentiment on people who want to invest some money. as the president of the san francisco fed said yesterday, if waste material materialized -- if risk material materialized, to rethink and reassess, but they have to see how it goes. spoke to adrian to wait and ready see. what was the thinking? >> he basically said our recent rate cuts -- member the 50 basis cut

shery: kathleen hays, thank you so much with all the major monetary policy decisions this week. major uncertainty for the central banks around the world is what happens on the u.s.-china trade front? u.s. commerce secretary wilbur ross spoke exclusively to bloomberg in bangkok about the prospects of a phase one trade deal. will see i think you that there was a suggestion about alaska, there was a suggestion about hawaii. i'm sure the chinese will have some suggestions in china. that should be the easiest part of the whole thing to negotiate. >> the trade deal will be signed in november. you say: well, wonderfully definitively and i wish i could be as definitive. [laughter] mr. ross: i think we are in good shape. we are making good progress. there is no natural reason why it couldn't be. but whether it will slip a little bit, who knows. it is always possible. >> are there still obstacles? mr. ross: not so much obstacles, but making sure that each side has a very correct and clear detailed understanding of what each side has agreed to. trade deals are very, very complicated. this

. >> i'm kathleen hays. close welcome to daybreak asia. ♪ >> our top story this wednesday, the senate moves to support hong kong's protesters seeking annual reviews and sanctions for those undermining freedoms. alibaba is still betting on hong kong. investor demand is several times oversubscribed. >> sometimes people look at australia's market which has just opened what are you watching? slightly under pressure after the game we saw on tuesday. kiwi shares are gaining. the could see a softer open in seoul and tokyo. the nikkei stock average has more than doubled since shinzo abe took office. economic strategy still lacks traction. it is a busy week that session ahead with japanese trade and china's update on the docket this wednesday. as we are waiting on alibaba's final pricing on an ipo. here in hong kong as schools reopen and we await more protests, housing futures have snapped a -- today advance. volatility has slumped over the past two sessions. acrosse sliding further -- there is optimism we might se

she spoke exclusively to bloomberg's kathleen hays in san francisco. mary: the policy economy has put policy stance in a very good place to make that baseline come out where we needed to, which is slightly above trend growth, and continuing to move up in inflation to target, and for full employment. i do think of that as the economy being in a good place. nejra: jim mcdonald from northern trust is still with us. listen to what jerome powell was saying yesterday. did you get the sense that his comments on inflation was sending the message that, yes, the fed is on pause, but there is a bias to cutting because the three cuts were not just about insurance against global risk? jim: i think the odds of there being a cut are much higher than the odds of a hike. nejra: what about a hold? they could be on hold if the data continues to be solid. they are worried about the long-term outlook for inflation. we haven't outlook that is a view of technology bringing all kinds of new supply into the industries, which is preventing placing power from taking hold. we hav

rishaad: thank you, kathleen hays. let's bring back adrian. with the rba coming out, people thinking no change, but some predicting another cut in december. why not get it over with now? >> they already cut three times since june. let's try to let the monetary policy work a bit. we also get some news on the trade war side. so we think they will wait for now. as you also mentioned before, a lot of tax incentives have been used to pay back debt, which doesn't have to be a negative moving forward. the unemployment market is still solid, more driven by the public sector, less by the private sector. that could trigger another rate cut. but it is definitely possible they do it today. they don't have to wait, but we think they are more cautious. rishaad: how about malaysia? they seem to be caught in a bind. >> i've just come back from malaysia. i think it is moving in the right direction. have seen what would indicate a bit more spending. i think that is what the bank wants to see. we think they will be holding back. keep some of the ammunition. bank

kathleen hays, our global economics and policy editor. coming up next, the bank is set to price its shanghai operating later today. it could be the biggest mainland ipo this year. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: this is "daybreak asia." i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. shery: i am shery ahn in new york. china will price its shanghai listing today in what is widely expected to be the onshore markets biggest ipo since the stock bubble burst. us from beijing. how do the financial results stack up against peers/? somee bank of china has solid fundamentals, one of the whitest branch networks in the world. 40,000. it guarantees very low cost of itsing, and we have seen profits rise 16% for the first nine months but it is rarely seen among these banks, so it is performing quite well this year. about 24% onre up the hong kong exchange and it is one of the best-performing chinese banks this year. why has therei: been this eagerness recently? with theyes, so along reasons, we know that china's economy has slowed to the slowest in nearly two decades

kathleen: good evening from bloomberg global headquarters in new york. i'm kathleen hays. welcome to "daybreak asia." sophie: our top stories this friday -- the u.s. and china say they will remove tariffs as a trade deal approaches, but both sides say negotiations are making progress. investors are not so sure.

paul allen is in sydney and kathleen hays in new york. let's look at those stories. >> taylor: i will start with softbank. they plan to combine yahoo! japan internet business with messaging service. that will become a joint venture in a deal that will not close until next october. andcombination is driven global giants are increasing their hold on the tech industry. down.le ceo is stepping he will stay on the board. the move is a long planned transition. mike sievert has been the brains 'shind many of t-mobile popular initiatives. the board of has rejected the takeover from xerox. the bid is too low. hp says it is open to exploring a merger, but there are fundamental questions that need to be answered. today'se a look at global tech stories. chinese consumers are rediscovering their appetite for iphones. numbersg crunched the to see that apple has shipped 10 million iphones to china. with a 6% increase from a year earlier, that confirms the iphone 11 is selling more strongly than it's predecessor. what is driving the demand. >> that is a

. >> i'm kathleen hays. close welcome to daybreak asia. ♪ >> our top story this wednesday, the senate moves to support hong kong's protesters seeking annual reviews and sanctions for those undermining freedoms.

she explained why in an exclusive interview with bloomberg's kathleen hays. >> we calibrate policy to make the baseline growth be sustainable and promoting goals of employment. the policy accommodation we have taken, which has been three rate cuts this year, has put policy stances in a good place to make the baseline come out. slightly above trend growth. and continue to move up in inflation to target and further progress on full employment. i do think of that as the economy is in a good place. of course, we continue to be data-dependent and look at the risks and see if the baseline changes even with this accommodation. >> is this a pause in the fed rate cut path? or is the fed at a policy crossroads, where we say do we go this way, that way? what needs to happen next? >> can i give you a third option? my third option is where i am today. i see the level of the policy rate right now as appropriate for the economy we have. which is good consumer spending, good domestic momentum, but facing headwinds that hurt business investment and manufacturing. we are in a moderately accommodative s

kathleen: i'm kathleen hays. we are counting down to asia's major market open. haidi: here the top stories we are covering in the next hour. rising food costs and falling prices leave china's leaders with a headache as new doubts over a trade deal. a saudi aramco moves one step closer to the market with an ipo perspective that offers more questions than answers.

tom: our kathleen hays with mary daly. i strongly urge you to look at mary daly's path at the fed and the interviews she has given over the last number of months. citigroupting with and in berlin, stephanie flanders, in charge of bloomberg appropriate economics. it is the word du jour. describe appropriate economics. stephanie: it is appropriately data-driven. appropriate is the new data-driven. we have seen a pretty consistent theme out of fed policymakers over the last few weeks as we have a bit more optimism around the survey data on global manufacturing and the markets want to take that optimism and use it, but not necessarily leave people thinking everything is resolved. on the face of it, they have taken the december rate cut off the table but without suggesting that because they think necessarily the job is done. ed: and hyman was with us -- hyman was with us and he was direct that the united states needs a fiscal expansion. does the united states have fiscal space with $1 trillion deficits? stephanie: the definitio

. >> kathleen hays joining us, plenty more ahead including our stocks of the hour. it is a chemical company having a hard time on the market. this is bloomberg. ♪ here inoming live bangkok. processly kicked on its and regulators have approved the offering. now, stephen stapczynski. where would we expect the evaluation to land that? >> that is what everyone in the lowers is asking come up than what saudi arabia had been predicting or targeting of to try and dollars and our sources telling us that the kingdom is targeting $1.8 trillion ipo and at the same time, you have banks coming out giving their looks as well. sachs givingman so that is range and what we are at right now. not exactly sure where will be, but the general consensus is it will likely be below the target that prince mohammed had set for a number of years. the reason for this is not a surprise. a thought -- i think a lot of people were expecting it to be this year and because of that, that pushes down the value of saudi aramco. key for saudi arabia, is it not? >> that is absolutely correct. there woul

kathleen hays is here with more. asia and theff in u.s. especially with those strong services numbers. kathleen: even the french bond market, i think they are back up to the highest yields since july but think about it. if there is a trade deal come all the big forces buying the world together, the damage the trade war has done on manufacturing, exports. start moving away from that, that could mean big changes. you at this chart showing that since 2018, huge rally in bonds. they have popped back up again, came down but now you can see the last few days starting with the fed pause last week on rate cuts. now with more optimism on the trade deal, that was also starting last week. you can see that maybe this bond rally is not over or at the very least people are taking another look. today, adding more fuel to the fire, once it got to the u.s., by 10:00 in the morning, services pmi. that is a turquoise line. it had been down around 52. manufacturing is still below 50 so in contraction but of services is going up, maybe that gets better too. th

kathleen hays has been pouring over the documents. what is their disagreement? was there any surprise coming out of the minutes? kathleen: what is important about the minutes is we listened to jay powell's press conference, and he came out in the meeting and after making their third rate cut in a row made it pretty clear the economy is in a good place. we are going to wait and see what happens, basically. he never used the word pause, but that is exactly what everyone concluded. in the minutes, there were divergent views, there was a debate, but it looks like the majority came down on jay arell's side because "many" elevated downside risks underscoring the case for a rate cut. in other words, they have paused, but they are waiting to see what happens and if they need to move again. here is a very important sentence -- risk outlook associated with global growth and international trade were still seen as significant. the risk of a global slowdown remains prominent. at the end of last month, i think people were more confident about the trade deal getting done, phas

hays. did mary daly add anything new for you when it comes to the fed policy picture? reporter: she absolutely did. of course, she started it by carefully and repeatedly laying out all the reasons why the fed, after three rate cuts, has done enough for now. yes, there are downside risks, the fed's eyes are open, she is a data dependent fed official act the rest. economy is in a good place. for now, rates are where they should be. let's listen. hashe policy accommodation put policy stance in a very good place to make the baseline come out where we needed to, which is slightly above trend growth and continued move in inflation to target and further progress on full employment. i think of that as the economy in a good place. of course, we continue to be data-dependent and look at the risks to see if the baseline changes even with this accommodation. pause andso is this a the fed rate cut path, or is said policy -- cutting rates now, we would stop and see what happens, or is the fed at a policy

one part of that is the discussion of chairman powell before the joint it and then our kathleen hays, in conversation with the president of the san francisco fed, mary daly. that is always most interesting. then francine and i will put in our floaty's because we are going to venice. francine: the mayor of venice is saying that he would declare a state of emergency as the second highest tide ever recorded in the italian city, following heavy rains. looking at st. mark's basilica in venice, you see incredible pictures we have never seen before, the tide reaching 100 87 centimeters. the mayor saying it will have a lasting impact on the city. ♪ >> corporate profitability is not improving, and the rates are extending every day that the s&p goes up a little bit, you are moving further away from the trend. >> so what are you buying? >> nothing. cash and gold. good luck. tom: friday afternoon, get out of the market, get out of market, get out of the market. we will now rip up the script. we can do that with joyce p -- with joyce chang. and sharon bell. i want to get philosophical because th

similar view.s a she explained why in an exclusive interview with kathleen hays. we calibrate policy to make the race line, growth, be sustainable. haveolicy accommodation we taken, which has been rate cuts, have put policy stances in a good place to make the baseline come out. slightly above trend growth. a continued move up. i do think of that as the economy is in a good place. of course, we continue to be data-dependent and look at the risks. see if the baseline changes. is this a pause in the fed rate cut path? do we go this way, that way? option, it is where i am today. i see the level of the policy rate right now is appropriate for the economy we have. good consumer spending, domestic momentum, but facing headwinds. we are in a moderately accommodative stance. can stay in that stance for the time it takes to get inflation back up. >> i am hearing you have paused. what you are trying to figure out now, you are saying you probably don't have to do anything. should shiftg we policy in that direction. >> we look forward. even though i have characterized the econ