jay powell indicating there is no policy change. robust. economy remains we have our guest in hong kong and local head of east asia. we also welcome the principal global investor of chief global economist. with you.start off we did not see a great delivery action in u.s. equity markets as the fed chair was speaking. do you expect to see much of an impact in asian markets? >> not really. as he said, it has been well priced. -- as you said, it has been well priced. policy will give time and space for asian central banks to reengage and recalibrate their policies. i expect a number of them will want to ease. but into 2020, it will mean weaker asian currencies. bob, i want to bring you into this point. -- in at this point. to what degree is the fed's decision going to ease pressure on some of asia's central banks to take action? bob: i think that is exactly what has happened. cutsu look at the three the fed has had so far this year , it certainly allowed in india and some other countries, it allowed them to be much more accommodating. and i thi

and instead jay powell capitulated and went along with what the bond market said and now the bond market is in sync with the fed you have fed funds rate the same as the two year treasury which means that the fed is now comfortably on hold but what jay powell has done is he raised rates four times in 2018 and cut rates three times in 2019. basically we've gone nowhere just put ourselves on a wild ride which i believe was unnecessary. >> are you against the concept and the idea of an insurance policy because that is what it was. it was taking out an insurance policy unless things got bad because of trade war bee it geopolitical or otherwise and throw brexit into the stew and the uncertainty of knowing how that would play out, what is wrong with an insurance policy. >> why would you raise rates four times in the first play there is nothing wrong with adjusting insurance policy or call it mid cycle adjustment but it doesn't seem to me there is much kans of the fed following through on the mid cycle adjustment because that could mean we're going to raise rates again but he said in october to

does what jay powell said yesterday change in any way how you see today? >> no. he was wonderfully boring yesterday. we've been waiting for a boring jay powell for the better part of a year and a half the fed has been remarkable. the market thought we were headed to a recession and we needed rate cuts to zero the fed was able to pivot and state that it doesn't need anymore. the market may be stabilizing. >> how are you positioning then for a fed in a wait and watch mode for 2020? >> we've taken them off the table. that is the key thing. rather than worrying about the fed being overly aggressive, we are focused on the fact that earnings growth looks like it is going to re5:0 seaccelerate >> instead, you are worried about trade? >> i don't know if we are worried. we are hopeful on trade that it doesn't get worse. >> what would worse look like to you? >> if we wake up on monday and it turns out we've gone forward with these tariffs and the rhetoric has heated up, that represents a risk to next year's earnings numbers if it works out, we may get a temporary delay in

jay powell indicates little chance of a move in the coming year. sterling will be in the spotlight is the u.k. heads to the polls. source -- sores -- soars. australian markets have just open for trade. let's turn to sophie for what to watch. sophie: it's hitting the snooze button with markets little changed to the downside. aussie dollar just retreating a touch. we are also keeping an eye on what is happening with the u.k. election taking place thursday and india very much focused as we get health checks on the economy. we are also waiting on japanese machine orders. we have singapore on the docket as well. paul: thanks very much. let's check in on first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: the u.k. vote later thursday in an election that will define its relationship with the eu for years to come. brexit has been the central issue in the campaign with prime minister boris johnson insisting the contingency board will only happen quickly if the conservatives turn a strong victory. uncertainty surrounding brexit has led to eu leaders hoping for a john

one other thing jay powell is going to get asked about, and this is going to be important, i went to show this chart here.

that i shouldn't be here fed chair jay powell set to speak later today. we'll tell you what that means

the pressure is on with jay powell in the limelight. $1.8 trillion and beyond the world's largest ipo surging past expectations on the first day of trading we have a live report from saudi arabia coming up >> delay to a deal investors hopeful. the u.s. will kick the canon the tariff hike in december on china. >> facebook falling. a new report says the social media giant is no longer one of the best places to work. >> and a strike again. yankees inking the largest contract again for a major league pitcher all of this as "worldwide exchange" begins right now ♪ good morning and welcome to the show i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan trying to snap a two-day losing streak all remain negative so far the dow would open up just about four points, the s&p about one point and the nasdaq about seven points pointing to the big fed decision later today. we are seeing some signs here, movement there to the down side 1.86%. 10-year note deals, two-year note deals ahead there you can see the major board says hang seng up, shanghai compositity up and the kospi about flat for japan in european tra

obviously if the economy changes, jay powell will have to react. mark: early indications from asia are people see this as an asymmetrical policy. the fed has sent a very high bar for raising interest rates. they are willing to let inflation run a little hot if necessary. on the downside, should the economy deteriorate, they certainly should be ready for lower interest rates again. people are interpreting this as a goldilocks scenario. the fed is telling you rates are certainly on hold through the end of next year, and that's not surprising considering it is an election year, but should the need arise, we will be ready to put our foot on the pedal and lower rates a bit as well. but in terms of hiking interest rates, the bar is very high, almost uneventful for 2020. this is a good scenario. asian equities are off to a good start today. that may be true for the rest of the world once the ecb meeting is out-of-the-way. for now, people like what they are hearing from jerome powell and the fed. nejra: i want to know whether a lot of the reaction from asi

what would be your question for jay powell today, looking ahead to 2020? jan: it is hard to come up with new insights. my expectation is that the fed does not want to send a new signal. they are comfortably on hold. there pretty far away from positional cuts, at least under our expectation for how the economy does. tableare also off the still below 4%. getting a sense of how wide that interval is is probably the most interesting issue. i think it is pretty wide. my expectation would be the answers to most of these questions are not going to be hugely surprising. that is the broad strategy. there are more detailed questions around what happens to t, what has happened to the divisions within the committee, how is the view of the sustainable unemployment of 4.2% in the projections, even though the end rate is 3.5%. alix: a nice way of saying it will be a boring presser. jan: there is always something, but this does not seem like one of the major events, especially when we look at meetings with new projections. alix: thanks. jan hatzius of goldman sachs. comin

because jay powell just said rates will probably stand pat for all of 2020. never mind that the market is pricing in some type of rate move in september, this coming september. correct? >> yeah. well, i think he's wrong again. i think the fed is going to be cutting rates again, much sooner -- liz: really. >> -- than powell thinks. powell said a lot of foolish things today. it was ironic that he began the press conference by praising paul volcker and now he's going to resurrect the high inflation that paul volcker buried. inflation was never created by economic growth or employment or wages. the fed creates inflation. what's different now is there's been a lag between the inflation that the fed creates and the impact that it has on consumer prices, which year over year is still up better than 2%. but a lot of that inflation is in the stock market, in the real estate market, in the bond market. the lag is what's longer. but that's what's going to change. we are going to be hit with a tsunami of inflation in this country. we are going to have an inflationary dep

there's sort of analogy between christine lagarde and jay powell. they are not the top shelf economists that they replaced, but they have more of the strategic political skills that she is going to need in this job. it will be interesting to see how she handles that band of european reporters. alix: absolutely, especially with fed powell's unanimous yesterday, right? julia: that was a smooth performance for once at the end of the year. alix: looking at the ecb rates decision, it was totally unchanged, but the surprise is the ecb says low or lower rates for an extended time. with us is tony despirito, fund minotnvestment active equity director. you're going to to get the growth beta next year in europe. that might be a better trade. tony: i still like the u.s. market quite a bit. yes, valuations are higher, but you have to look sector by sector and quality adjust. the u.s. market just has a higher growth rate, and i think it is a higher-quality market. given where rates are, we are still very much pro-u.s. finding pockets of opportunity, certainly, a

scarlet: what is the message jay powell wants to deliver? does he want this to be the most boring press conference as possible? david: i hope so. for his sake and for all the tweets that will come blistering out no matter what he says. i think there will be a little message in the dot plot if it suggests interest rates goes up in the future. you will have a former feddy on soon. romaine: things for promoting that. david: that is a good question, do you expect the dot plots to reveal anything we would not expect? otherwise, there is no reason for them to have a meeting. romaine: a lot of the action we see in the market comes when jay powell starts to speak. i year ago, there was criticism about how he was communicating -- commuteriticism getting the fed's strategy toward the market. david: i think he is doing a good job. byis hammered all the time the white house, by trump. andwhile, he lets it roll he does not get into contact. the repoconcern about rate spike. gsib is concern about the scoring of the big banks. there are issues. whether tho

jay powell is focusing also on the question of what would make you cut rates more? he was asked about this and he said we put it right in the statement paired we are looking at global development. watching the trade war, but there's a point where they do not see global to veltman pushing in that direction. and it comes to hiking rates, he said he would have to see a persistent rise in inflation. he talked about how hard it will be for the fed to get there. so he does not expect that coming. one of my favorite on the bloomberg numeral showing you 2019, there were some dots in september that said they were not get this low, but they have cut them three times and everyone is on board with what has happened it is the next call that is so important. the bottom row, the total i should say, 13 out of 17 see the exact ending rate in 2020, where we are right now. only four c one hike which is not that much and the former president of the federal reserve bank of atlanta agrees, they are not going to do anything for a while. the economy overall is in a very good place. the gro

courtney: jay powell is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged. some of his colleagues may be looking ahead to when they should raise rates again. the fed will release statements and update quarterly forecasts at 2:00 new york times. afterwards, jay powell holds a news conference. in the u.k., it is election eve. boris johnson and jeremy corbyn begin a whistle stop tour of key districts. theugov poll shows conservatively has narrowed substantially but puts boris johnson on track to win a majority of seats. energy increasing at the volcano off the coast of new zealand and that has kept crews from recovering the bodies that remain there. six people are known to have died. another eight are missing and presumed dead. 30 people have been hospitalized. most are in critical condition. in india, the parliament is set to approve a controversial citizenship bill that prevents illegal muslim migrants from becoming citizens. hindus, christians, sheets, and others -- hindus, christians, and others are eligible. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quick

when i heard jay powell talk about inflation a couple of weeks ago, he sounded look a man frustrated that he couldn't control inflation. not to the level of james bullard, he sounds like he's very frustrated. when they say they want to see it, that made it seem like they're going to be dovish for a little longer. a lot of people say the low rates are what is fueling the stock market i think it is a two thing. low rates, coupled with the belief that rates are probably lower than where they should be. in the past, for the last three months, that's because there is unknown of the china thing going. as that is becoming more known, it is less of a crutch for the fed to stay dovish i still -- i'm still bullish if i'm -- i'm nervous right now, we have come far fast, if you're not nervous, you're not paying attention. i think for me personally it was a time to rebalance, put in more put protection to me, the fact that jay powell wants to see inflation, he's willing to let things run is very bullish. >> i was surprised to see the ten-year at 1.877% given everything that the market seems to th

i think jay powell is very smart. he learned on the job but i think it's a lesson this can the state learn. >> he loves taking credit. thank you very much and have a great weekend. it's not just investors who are cheering this rally. so is your 401(k) is everything from tech, to retail, all have huge gains this year. i want to bring in heather's cigarette aga along with cody sanchez. heather i've got to start with you a lot of people say like great love affair is this really can't last and they've been wrong. >> offered incident have pushed the stock market to new highs every day. "the wall street journal" having an article this morning saying that wages for blue-collar workers is hitting new highs here at some of the highest levels that we've seen in almost a decade. remember when speaker pelosi said these tax cuts would destroy and kill the middle-class, that is simply not the case. >> we know in the market there are fundamental reasons for the market working sometimes. sometimes it's behavioral analysis. the new hi

jay: i think it is great we asked jay powell that question, not jay pelosky, because he knows a lot more about it. i think it is not something we should be overly concerned about. september was a surprise so a caused upheaval. markets are on it, the fed is on it. i think it illustrates a key point from my perspective which is that it is a real example of policymakers providing support to the financial markets, ensuring there is liquidity, ensuring easily -- easy financial conditions. investors can focus on other things. and the opportunity to position in a market broadening out beyond simply big tech into other parts of the world, in terms of ex-u.s. other sectors like cyclical and defensive and value as opposed to growth. this repo issue is not something we need to focus on. shery: but we do have treasury settlements and corporate tax payments. should we be concerned that year-end funding could again be squeezed? jay: i don't think so. my concern is i am i jay powell, i have other things to think about. i think maybe it causes a day or two of uncertainty and rates go up a little bit, bu

powell as. doug just shared. on the level of interest rates doesn't that reduce the sense of independence of the u.s. dollar and what's going to do to have a kind of china mimicry where the central government is pounding on economic authorities to get economic results here any risk in donald trump's behavior well yes of course he wants to be an autocrat and so he behaves like an autocrat including those that he criticizes but i think the effect will still be that the dollar will be will remain strong only because it's the best house in the neighborhood but i think part of the the exorbitant privilege the fact that the u.s. can print dollars is also still considered a safe haven because of the institutions which while he has tried to undermine them and he has arguably weakened checks and balances it still compared to other countries relatively secure and i love this analogy best house in the neighborhood where it's wrong that this is the best house in the neighborhood or just every other house ju

eastern, followed by fed chair jay powell's news conference, his last of the year. 2:30 p.m. you know it spills over. the best stuff is the q & a that starts at 3:00 p.m. eastern. you cannot miss it, because the markets, we have seen this before, start to toil and roil so we will have all the reaction and the greatest analysis of any business network right here on "the claman countdown." as soon as jay powell's presser comes to an end. "the claman countdown" is coming right back. what i love most about being a scientist at 3m is that i'm part of a community of problem solvers. we make ideas grow. from an everyday solution... to one that can take on a bigger challenge. we are solving problems that improve lives. but you don't feel good. with polycythemia vera, pv, symptoms can change so slowly over time you might not notice. but new or changing symptoms can mean your pv is changing. let's change the way we see pv. you track and discuss blood counts with your doctor. but it's just as vital to discuss changing symptoms as well. take notice and take action. discuss counts and sym

jackie: we're having more on fed in a moment as we await jay powell's press conference but also today saudi acamaro surging joint nears two trillion dollar valuation goal lateralismet carbon dioxide producer finding success. >> it was certainly a strong ipo for saudi acamaro good a lot of people watching it, biggest ipo of all time as soon as that opening bell rang this morning, aramco largest valuable publicly traded company ever beating out microsoft, apple surged even more as stocks started trading background more valuable you jumped 0% from 853 to 939 u.s. dollars on saudi exchange american investors are still wary aramco for one thing refineries vulnerable to attack you remember the drone strikes in september of this year, aramco got it back on line quickly, but still, investors worry susceptible to gee political turmoil in future run by saudi government people won if they can trust government you mentioned shift to renewable energy has investors worried too dependent on oil prices doesn't have enough diversity in its revenue generating streams, la. i mentioned, microsoft and app

jay powell is not going to step back from what he is doing. he is going to be much more aggressive if need be. he will grow the balance sheet. we can call it real qe in 2020. whatever we want, jay powell will deliver. >> he has a job to do. connell: whatever it is. that's the debate right or wrong, it is what it is. we'll come back to it. come back to the market as well. close up for christmas in an hour. welcome to both of you. thanks for coming on. >> merry christmas. connell: talk a little retail. it is christmas eve after all. last minute delivery dash is certainly on. same day deliveries are proving to be, kind of a new problem for some companies that's developed. kristina partsinevelos is covering that for us today. >> it is not too late. are you a last minute shopper? according to national retail federation survey of roughly 75,000, 6% like myself plan to do all holiday shopping today. this comes after the single biggest retail day in u.s. history according to customer growth partners. consumers on super saturday or we can call it panic

what would you ask fed chair jay powell today? where thei look at u.s. economy is, i think there's pretty decent resilience, but still a lot of resiliency in terms of business confidence and consumer. but on the margin, i think the global economy is a lot weaker. i think that is a sort of needle the fed has to weave between u.s. resilience, but much weaker conditions globally, and then the resulting risk to asset markets and that liquidity shock. don't think there's a repeat at all of december 2018. i think there's some of the bears and skeptics thinking that because of what happened in repo, that could happen, but that is not our base case. earlier on, u.s. cpi came in pretty much as anticipated. fed cut for inflation? tom: i think the fed can cut and -- can let inflation run a little hot because i don't think expectations around consumer have changed yet. i think the time to worry about inflation is when individual wage expectations start to get inflated because that changes behavior and really anchors inflation bias. if it runs hot one or two months,

we want to hear what chairman jay powell those say at 2:00 this afternoon. futures are mixed, dow down 30, s&p up 1, nasdaq up 10 and-a-half. yesterday the dow, nasdaq and s&p 500 had their second day of losses following a day full of headlines from trade to impeachment. dow industrials were down 27, s&p was down 3, nasdaq lower by 5. global markets look like this. we are all focused on brexit and the drama around that. it is the final day of campaigning in the u.k. before the prime minister election. the vote in the u.k. happening tomorrow. the fq100 is down 4 points going into that. the cac in paris is up a fraction, not even a point, the dax in germany is higher by 50. asian markets up, slightly on hopes that we could see some kind of truce between the u.s. and china. we're getting back and forth headlines on whether or not the u.s. will delay the tariffs that are set to take effect on sunday. also ahead, the person of the year. president trump and speaker nancy pelosi on the short list along with the whistleblower according to time. we'll tell you who ta

i think jay powell just intends to try to be fairly invisible in 2020. when i was in grad school, if i didn't want to answer -- if i didn't know the answer, i would sit in the back, not make eye contact. i think jay powell may not be doing that with all of the political pressures this year. vonnie: you like industrials, health care, and energy. why industrials, first? burns: one of the things that has been weighing on corporate capital spending that typically would drive the industrials has been the uncertainty. ceo confidence hasn't been high because of, again, really just getting back to the u.s.-china trade relations. now that we have at least reached a point where we haven't removed a lot of the tariffs, but it seems they have reached a point where the u.s. and china have both reached a pain threshold, and although the tariffs might not be removed, it at least seems that the trajectory is starting to improve, with that, you have industrial capacity utilization that is very high. that basically means whether companies like it or not, they are going to

>> jay powell telling us what we already know, the fed is on hold for an indefinite period as long as the information from the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook. same old, same old. what he emphasized as new is keeping the expansion going as benefits beyond trading floors. low rates spread the benefits of the expansion to the economy more broadly. getting more marginally attached to americans in the labor force, benefiting from jobs, including minorities, the handicapped, and the less educated. the one area he did emphasize where there might be some problems -- inflation. not that it is too high, not that it is too low. they are keeping an eye on that. he did suggest the fed wants to make sure inflation continues to rise and he thinks rate cuts are going to do that. here's an interesting statement. look at the conclusion of his speech. he said, monetary policy is now well-positioned to support a strong labor market and returned inflation decisively to the 2% objective. jay powell with a little bit stronger view of how inflation is going to develop over the next year.

she, like jay powell, is not a phd economist. she told us in the beginning of the press conference she was going to speak plainly and communicate with more people than just the hyper financially minded journalists in the room, but even with regular people. she said, don't try to over interpret what i say. if i change my wording slightly, she doesn't want that to move the markets the way it would or bend mario draghi bernanke change their words slightly. that is one thing i thought was interesting. also, she talked a lot about the review that they are going to do, this strategic review. she said it is about time. they've had 16 years since the last one. she knows they were very busy previously, but now is about time to do it. she says it is not going to take that long. she wants to start in january at some point and be done by the end of 2020. hopefully we will be getting more news on that at each press conference that we go to. then, as you say, she was optimistic. she said there is still risk to the downside, but they have lesse

jay powell has been instrumental, i would say jay powell has been more instrumental in driving the stock market rally, that trump likes to call his own than any other of his three predecessors. there is certain irony there i'm not so sure that you find somebody that the senate confirms that's going to stand up and willingly say as an american i'm willing to take rates into negative territory to satisfy my president. so you know, there is always, there is always a better candidate in the minds of politicians but again, jay powell has done a great, a great favor to president trump. neil: we'll see what happens, danielle. getting a little ahead of ourselves there. i am the one who forced that on you. appreciate your insight. >> not a problem. neil: steve moore looking for a job on the federal reserve. ultimately took himself out of the running but a lot of people still want to see him there, maybe who knows in chairman role. former trump senior economic advisor joins us now. good to see you, steve. >> neil, good to see you. mary -- merry christmas. i saw the president yesterday at the oval

. >> mike, thank >>> well, president trump has just sent out a tweet blaming fed chairman jay powell for the weak ism data. he tweeted, manufacturers are being held back by the strong dollar, which is being propped but up by the ridiculous policies of the federal reserve, which has called interest rates and quantitative tightening wrong from the first days of jay powell >> interesting appoint, of course, on the dollar. 97.8 on the dollar index, down 0.4% today and not at the highs of the year, mike it's not been a weak period, of course, for the dollar, but still not the highs. and some comments earlier in terms of the new steel tariffs on argentina of course, their currency's a hell of a lot weaker it's not intentional when it comes with all sorts of aggressive negative baggage. but it's a theme we've seen of some time. and the important point we'd make is whether the fed has been influenced by this type of tweeting or not. the fed has pivoted significantly? and even more recently, jay powell emphasizing the undershoot of the fed's inflation target as a reason to stay more easing th

jay powell always talks about expectations, in other words, he seems to be tettered to what consumers anticipate, does this make it harder for him to raise rates in the future? >> most definitely does, why do inflation expectations matter? if consumers expect low price inflation, then if companies don't heed these expectations and rise -- raise prices sharply, consumers cut back on spending and, of course, that brings prices lower once again, incredible by important, i think consumers have gotten accustomed to underlying inflation roughly 2%, if that's the case, there's no need for a rate hike any time soon. charles: john, appreciate it. >> my pleasure. charles: reaction from the white house and booming economy, council of economic adviser thomas philipson. >> thanks for having me. charles: no one on wall street said 266,000, all of the experts missed this number, why do you think it was so strong? >> it's pretty clear what's going on, new labor market under the president since he started. i will give you 3 facts that basically tells you this is a totally different labor market, one i

jay powell with a little bit stronger view of how inflation is going to develop over the next year. david: this morning, we got a rush of economic data. the u.s. economy expanding 2.1% in the third quarter, better than initially reported 1.9%, while demand for u.s. business equipment unexpectedly increased by the most this year. where do we stand? >> ok, so all this means is slower growth going into the fourth quarter. personal income and spending report indicated decelerated trajectory of personal income growth. david: a little disappointing. yelena: disappointing, absolutely. if growth in personal spending continues at the same pace, it would imply significant deceleration from 2.9% growth in the third quarter to something like 1.6% in the final quarter of the year, which also implies gdp is not going to be that great in the final quarter of the year. alix: german unemployment dropped unexpectedly amid a slump in manufacturing that seems to be stabilizing and trade tensions easing. a lot of european data this morning. >> generally speaking, good news. the economy remains fairly we

at the press conference after the meeting last week, jay powell said he would have to see persistently rising inflation to get on board with a rate hike. what is your position? we have been in a situation where we have been able to run a very tight labor takingithout inflation off. we've had muted inflation. this is what's great about the fomc. we all have a bit of a different take on this. i will be looking at what potential growth does. i will be looking at what the trends are in the labor market, and in addition, i will be looking at where we versus our target. i will also be looking at financial stability issues in weighing whether some actions are appropriate. , universelonger-term of michigan inflation expectations, the recent survey matched the record low of the survey, which has been going along for a decade. so, 2.3%. does this concern you? robert: in my view, and i've been talking about this the last few years, we've had a substantial structural change in the u.s. economy, from disruption, the fact that everyone has in the palm of his or her hand or computing power then busin

that i shouldn't be here fed chair jay powell set to speak later today. we'll tell you what that means for investors. pat toomey that might be your interview rob portman about potential for trade deal with china. we might ask how they are going to vote on some other issues the new agreement with canada and mexico, toomey opposed that. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ ♪ yes i'm stuck in the middle with you, ♪ no one likes to feel stuck, boxed in, or held back. especially by something like your cloud. it's a problem. but the ibm cloud is different. it's open and flexible enough to manage all your apps and data securely, anywhere, across all your clouds. so it can help take on anything from rebooking flights on the fly, to restocking shelves on demand, without getting in your way. ♪ ♪ >>> the fed is going to announce the latest decision. expected to hold rates steady and value key markets. we've been watching the news conference for any comments on improved economy, lower employment after the big job's number we had on friday for the november job

powell once it -- jay powell wants it. alix: michael mckee, thanks very much. coming up, we are going to have more on your morning trade and analysis on the markets in today's first take. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: time for bloomberg first take. we are going to give you the news. you get the trade and analysis of the markets. sassower,e is damian vincent cignarella, and also with us is maria vassalou of vassalou capital management. vincent, i set up the whole show on what is going to win. is it going to be central banks or trade? vincent: i think it's trade. i think we are going to see the usmca developed, and how nancy pelosi wants to put a stamp on that. this is a republican bill. this is the president's deal. the talk from washington is the house wants to try to get their fingerprints on the stomach it looked like we were a part of it so they won't give the president a total win. they can't stand in front of it if the president takes it to mexico and canada and it is on his desk, waiting for it to sign. the second

the best news is you've got jay powell printing away trillions. markets of love that for millions of years. is can i do that until april. were going to have bumps along the road i can tell you sentimental right now is wildly bullish, which means were probably going to pull back in january. i have to tell you came right out of range today for huge volume. >> amazon on number 1% is again or in the s&p 500. it's a large market. >> melissa, jeff, gary. thank you all very much. his bernie sanders rising from the ashes ready to make a charge of the 2020? some key democrats think so but will still debate next. president trump has some tips to get you through contention through the holidays. get a pen, we will be right back. she wanted to move someplace warm. but he wanted snow for the holidays. so we built a snow globe. i'll get that later. dylan! but the one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with homeowners insurance. what? switching and saving was really easy! i love you! what? sweetie! hands off the glass. ugh!! call geico and see

nothing worries more about the economy or market than jay powell and then the 2019, 2018 version of jay powell. >> the fed is the fountain of youth for expansion. as long as rates stay low and don't go higher -- exactly we can expect expansion to continue. we have one difference. i think share prices climb higher next year too. i don't think they surge. we're expecting lower returns next year. that is what we're telling our clients. more volatility. you will see the headlines and markets respond to that. charles: my model, jeff, 3% gdp, 4% wage growth, 15% s&p growth. at that is what i'm looking at, my prediction for 2020. >> i agree with that. charles: that's why you're on the show. let's get back to real quick, the whole notion of the trade situation. you know, i think people, i always remind people we've made a remarkable move in this market and economy with tariffs and position already, 360 billion. this is not smoot-hawley. it is not 1930. that was promised by a lot of market observers. worst-case scenario din play out. where are you looking at from here, jeff? what should happen?

kathy: i think as jay powell said, they would need to see a material change in the outlook to make a change good the interpretation is we would have to see a worse economy to start cutting again and we are not considering raising rates. but if we are right that we see more upward pressure on inflation, that sort of expectation might shift in the second half of the year. jonathan: jim, do you share that view? that the fed is not going anywhere through 2020? do you have an understanding of the threshold that would bring the fed back to the table? jim: no, and i don't know if any of us do. remember they did a fed listens tour in 2019 and they will do it in the first half of next year, roll out a new policy directive. it is expected to be an average inflation targeting policy, which means even if we get the uptick of inflation expectations, the fed will allow it to happen without even considering raising rates. i think that raising rates, unless something dramatic happens, is off the table. lowering rates, a lot of things could happen to make rates go lower. the uncertainty around more t

powell. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg "real yield." time for the final spread. coming up over the next week, what a week we have coming up. saudi aramco starts trading wednesday. u.s. cpi and an fomc rate decision. thursday, the ecb and the swiss national bank making their own decisions. and the u.k. heading for its general election. friday, the consumer back in focus with u.s. retail sales. final round of thoughts with priya misra, krishna memani, gershon distenfeld. within the space of 24 hours, the federal reserve and the ecb, and a big consensus forming 2020, the rest of the world outperforms the u.s. where do you stand on that debate? priya: the rest of the world probably muddles along. we think the u.s. underperforms. we struggle to see, where is the growth engine for the rest of the world? the extent of this deceleration will slow down, so you can flatline. this has big implications for the dollar. if you get

interestingly too, of course, jay powell, the fed is saying that is not a concern right now. he wants -- overall inflation by their measure to really go above the target before they get worried about it so that's been something the markets have said, fine, that is a statement you want to keep rates probably lower than the markets and perhaps the economy warrant. >> david, i see you shaking your head. >> not a lot of red on my screen not that it is necessarily a bad thing, just amazing when you look at the stocks i watch and this is a random grouping of 100 or so whatever it may be so few users for the year. i guess there is a reason we come back to viacom so -- it is down 2.5%. you mentioned pfizer, of course, down about 9.5% this year. mylan deal, that deal where they were spinning off their deal to create that new company not particularly well received very hard to find -- to find names that really ended the year or going to end the year down at all. >> no, not the year. this -- this 52-week period is definitely flattering performance. there are a fair number of stocks belo

scarlet: we have been -- carol: we were talking about 2018 when jay powell said things that really disturbed the market. scott: i think he has gotten better since then. he is better at communicating. the thing i think will be very interesting is when he makes his statement, i think he is going to focus a lot on the funding markets. the conversation today is going to be dominated by what's going on with repo, can the fed really fix this, and a lot of technical stuff that only people like us can really enjoy. scarlet: did the vis report change anyone's thinking? it may have changed some people's thinking. a lot of us knew how much there was in the marketers of leverage. let's make it interest -- jeff: let's make it interesting, scott. the meeting is not that interesting, i'll disagree. [laughter] scott: powell doesn't want to make us about the repo market and the more he addresses it in a mild -- monetary policy press conference, the more he conflates the issues. people want to ask, but he is going to trimming -- clearly try to make a separation. >> you may be right, he may want to avoid it al

we have not seen it yet but gundlach said jay powell, the head of the federal reserve, he is really committed to boosting inflation and investors are underpricing that. amanda: always good to have you. katie greifeld, thank you for that. bloomberg users can interact with the charts easy on the network. the function is gtv go. from toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ [ dramatic music ] this holiday... ahhhhh!!! -ahhhhh!!! a distant friend returns... elliott. you came back! and while lots of things have changed... wooooah! -woah! it's called the internet. some things haven't. get ready for a reunion 3 million light years in the making. woohoo! -yeah! mark: i am mark crumpton was "first word" news. on capitol hill, the house has officially scheduled votes for wednesday on the impeachment of president trump. adoption would make him only the third president in u.s. history to be impeached. ranking democrat steny hoyer says the two articles will be voted on separately. democratic leaders are not urging members to vote for the measures, he said, adding that each member will have to make the

i am hearing this more and more from jay powell and others. what do you make of that argument? edward: it is true wages are up at all levels. lower, 25% wages are up even more, the latest statistics up 4%, so it is true in this case that a rising tide has been lifting all boats, that is translated into increases in employment rates and also with wage rates. in terms of the federal reserve specifically being able to and differentuals income levels, i think it is way too blunt of a tool they don't really have that precision. i don't really buy into the argument that the federal reserve can be targeting different income levels. guy: we are going to carry on the situation, stay with us. up next, a senior diplomat urging the u.s. to honor the 1 china policy has beijing's ambassador to the united states says beijing will honor its commitment as part of the phase 1 deal. we will talk about trade, we will talk about hong kong, that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: i am guy johnson info tom keene and francine lacqua both off today. a senior chinese diplomat suggested the u.s. should

jay powell the chairman has pretty much messaged there is not another cut unless there is some event that would require it how would that change under a democratic administration or new president? i mean, look, the fed really wants to be data dependent it did get a little bullied by the market not so much trump but by the market growth in the united states -- this year, it will be 2.1% next year, 1.8 is the consensus. in the first half, it is expected to be lower than that that is the argument the fed would more likely be cut as opposed to be pushing the rate up >> we'll leave it there for now and come back to you neil wilson is the co-ceo of ejf capital. the conference will be kicking off soon reuters has reported that a deeper supply cut is the main scenario up for discussion that would represent up to 400,000 barrels a day. some comments from the nigeria minister saying his country has hit 100% compliance to these cuts he's saying he will meet with his saudi counter part to discuss further cuts we'll go to vienna where that meeting will take place today 0. dan, the fact that niger