invest in europe. he says if u.s. infection rates slow down from here, europe is set for-- europe's outperformance may actually be question. david: the data is telling me the u.s. had less of a lockdown in the second quarter, and u.s. gdp fell less in the second quarter then in the euro zone, not annualized. lower phase of the euro zone, it is highly likely that in the third order, the increase in the euro zone will be higher than that in the u.s.. is basically all in all with the u.s. likely to get even bigger fiscal stimulus then europe, probably subtracting from the issues i mentioned area the u.s. will maintain a slight advantage over the eurozone is the u.s. is lightly to discontinue spending even more than europe. the heros that mean dollar rally we have seen is overdone? david: it has gone a little farther on trend. europe does have significant good fundamentals. the euro is undervalued relative to the u.s. dollar. in currencyhe euro markets may have been a little overdone in july the trend is .

than europe, policy measures is much lower in europe and it's exactly what we're seeing at the moment >> that's important to bear in mind for investors moving forward. as we move forward, as we head into the colder months, initially that was the expectation among the medical and epidemeology communities that this would have a seasonal element to it. what is the latest thinking around the seasonality and europe has been much better at containing the virus than most parts of the world but what about when we head into the winter >> what i can say is that it's very interesting with just early success in controlling the pandemic, they are very likely to remain and it's very high and also that the rate of cases is high and the other countries like australia which still manage to control the initial ones see renewed increase in cases. >> all right cedric, thank you so much for joining us this morning. cedric gehmel. >> thank you very much. >> follow us on twitter at street signs cnbc and you can tweet me directly if you want to weigh into any conversations we're having today. >> coming up on

and in europe german armies had invaded the soviet union. winston searchal, the prime minister of england, america's strongest ally travelered to washington to meet with roosevelt. together they planned a strategy to combat the axis powers. it began to pay off in june 1942 as the allies slowly stopped the expansion of the axis allied powers. the battle of midway june 1942 was a major turning point. the u.s. navy destroyed four japanese aircraft carriers and ended japan's dominance in the central pacific. this was the first step in a strategy that came to be called island hopping, an island by island advance towards the japanese homeland. in europe the situation also improved. british forces defeated the german, african corp in egypt. an anglo-american invasion force landed to clear the continent of axis forces and german advance was stopped in a series of hard fought battles. in 1943 the tide of the battle continued to turn in the favor of the allies as they gained greater and greater control of the fighting in both europe and pacific. the s

on a collision course with russia moscow has warned europe not to intervene europe says the future of bella ruse should be decided by the people not by the military of lead a mere putin i'm burnt off in berlin this is the day. we stand by the people of a lot of stuff desireless and we don't accept impunity there's been huge infringements against election rules these elections were not free and they were not fair we have all sung all those responsible for violence the pressure and full sophistication of the results of the election we do not recognize the results of these elections. also coming up tonight last week u.s. president donald trump announced a peace deal between israel and the united arab emirates he predicted other arab states would follow he apparently did not mean saudi arabia peace must be achieved between the palestinians and israelis based on the internationally recognized parameters and one you know once that is achieved all things up us all. to our viewers on p.b.s. of the united states and all the round the world welcome we begin the day with the european union stand

or later congress is in europe. and they thought that what they would do is they would meet briefly in paris. in january 1919. it was cold, they actually called it a preliminary peace conference until they realize that they had slipped over into the real thing. and they had come up with some agreed terms which had then offered germany and germany had negotiated and they would all sit down and as they've done in vienna and hammer out a settlement. it took them from january to may to get agreements on their peace terms. there were so many issues and so many difficulties and so many moments when the peace conference looked like breaking up. at one point, the italians walked out because they weren't getting everything they wanted. the chinese were threatening not to sign the treaty and in the end, didn't. the japanese were complaining and threatening to walk out. the belgians were saying that they would might walk out. and so by the time the allies actually agreed on the peace terms to be offered germany. they didn't da

was europe not africa the actual cradle of humanity. athens capital of greece and ancient birthplace of democracy. for years now the german paleontologist madeleine buena has been researching the natural history of this region. what she discovered could radically change our understanding of human evolution. the saudi doesn't agree climate today is mediterranean hot dry summers and cool when winters for the 7000000 years ago things were very different the landscape covered today by athens used to be grass on a savanna softening us. and the animals that lived here at that time were differ. to greece was home to several species of elephant. there were also rhinos. giraffes. and ostriches animals that today live in africa as the m. it was 4 or 5 degrees warmer than now and whether to a lost world just. at that time 7000000 years ago a mysterious creature lived in southeastern europe. only a few traces of it remained. it may have been our very earliest ancestor. the search for traces of this creature brought madelaine burma to investigate a

coming to europe as well and we can expect more and ther are a number of major industries where europe has lead the way in the past to what extent could that help those industries now working to improve their processes and reclaim their position as pioneers of their industries to what extent could that help the european software companies and other digital companies gain clout themselves >> that's a really interesting point. we're seeing that on one hand the improvement and indeed the traditional industrial settings as well as the strong r and d expertise that you have stemming from any other european universities sprinkled across the continent. and they're working very closely and we're seeing more and more of these marriages between traditional ones that tried to work more closely with starbucks to optimize the business and, in-turn, enable these young companies to get fuel and grow. >> i noticed in your notes that you made note of how moving to a fully remote working environment over the bulk of the pandemic is in europe and the u.s. >> basically, and you cannot really afford ignori

but they're ignoring eastern europe and they've been ignoring eastern europe for years and his crane poland lithuania latvia these countries that know russia well and said don't do this but germany just went ahead and did it anyway i mean that surprises me is that i think there was a certain misreading going in there lynn at that the failure point and i think the misreading was that germany itself the self perception was that germany was clearly pursuing a dual strategy of containment the study of russia plus cooperation so basically the old pattern of the cold war and containment is just it's clear because germany in that kind has been instrumented to keep up the consensus on e.u. sanctions so this was kind of. being in the background and why thought the others would accept within the package of culpa ration the snot stream to a pipeline which was also giving germany a certain leverage the said the kremlin and i think the other misreading than was the dynamics inside. you go for an energy union and to really drive this and to a certain extent you know it all the. rhetoric from berli

how does europe come out of this? when we come out of this pandemic, when we come out of the generational change of leadership signaled by chancellor merkel, where will europe be on the other side of this bridge? tom. good morning, i think europe at the moment in somewhat better shape than in other parts of the world. it has a better control of the virus dynamic. response also seems to come together more than in other places, and there is more visibility about the fiscal availablehat has been . that looks fine, and then if you look at the number of long-term trends that will be accelerated pandemic,k of the notably a clear shift toward , addressingty things such as inequality, i think there is reason to argue that europe essentially is in a decent position. to benefit from these trends. tom: is it a decent position of actual improved labor productivity, or is it an overlay of maybe good policy like europe? can europe jumpstart labor productivity over the next five years? elga: in terms of the productivity trends in eu

money in the states or europe? bhanu: for the next three months, europe. scarlet gave a good round up. to main factor if you want understand country allocations is to understand sector allocations and one step further, factor allocations, do we want to be in growth or low-volume,entum, or quality? the market has been more and more priced in, will price in jackson hole and the vaccine. these are already in the price but there is room to run, and as we move away from growth to value which is difficult because of how strong it has been, but if you want to start on a clean sheet of paper, value stocks will do slightly better and that should be a reallocation towards europe. that is a tactical call, i emphasize that. longer term, the amount of stimulus the u.s. economy has, there will be a much bigger recovery in the u.s. next year. tech, from a short-term perspective, is the future. allocationsset portfolio, it will be tough to diversify, given china, given the hopes on vaccines. it will be tactical asset allocation. europes a trade value on and investment gro

we talked about europe and the fact europe is potentially heading in the right direction. it has a social security system that is working. it is managing the covid crisis much more effectively and is starting to invest in technology , i.e. environmental technology. since we have had that conversation, european stocks have gone down in u.s. stocks have gone up. when is the right moment to invest in europe the long-term trade? steen: thank you for putting me on for that one, guy. obviously the game is you believe there is better cohesion going into the u.s. election year that will at best be will beus and at worst a starting point for further social unrest in the u.s.. up, but i do not think overall the s&p 500 is recovering as well. for me europe remains at a changing point. the budget we have in place shows a commitment from your. is that enough long-term, but in the short term you created -- the euro rally to 1.19, coming back down to 1.17. people increasingly want to invest money at home, and personally, not because i'm european, but for me europe is a better place to be

been such a good century for europe. europe has known terrible wars in its history. most centuries have been marked by dreadful wars in europe. and the 19th century was actually one of the most peaceful and prosperous and progressive centuries in history. there had been a number of very short wars in the 19th century after the napoleonic wars ended. but those wars were short and usually fought between two countries. and they usually resulted in a clear result and then peace was re-established. and so europeans had come to think by the beginning of the 20th century that they had somehow changed and their world had changed and that they happen going to go on living in a peaceful world, and they were going to go on building peaceful and progressive and pragueporous societies. this peace and prosperity and progress was going to spread around the world. we look back and say how foolish that was, but this is something many people eneurope were thinking before 1914, which made the shock of the first world war all the graduator.

as the virus groups europe. cases continue to climb as leaders by going from shutdowns and a brexit bust. willsay it is likely they reach a no deal. european stocks down by .2. the overall market helped buy a better than expected u.s. pmi, given that the european pmi came in weaker than estimated, particularly in france. the euro loses steam against the dollar and you are seeing selling and peripheral bonds, most significant in italy with yields up three basis points. crude down by almost .2. let's break down the two tales with u.s. activity hitting an 18 month high and europe a different story. the economy lost momentum unexpectedly. michael is here for the breakdown. michael: the narrative in europe playing out as europeans forecasted. they are now seeing a covid come back and slowing economic data. indexes, thetiment pmi's, is this month better than last month or worse? the consensus is it was not as good or worse. you can see all of us the euro zone in france, germany, they saw declines in the manufacturing

into europe. just simply because we talked about in the session before, where actually a consent since expectation for europe -- consensus expectations for europe are extremely high, whether that's regard to political risk, whether that's in regards to the eu's recovery fund, the handling of the virus, whether that's also for example relative to growth compared to the u.s.. baked into expectations and the price already. i doubt that there will be this huge rotation. one thing we have not talked about, if you look at eps revisions and put them together with annual change of euro-dollar outlook against eurozone against u.s. earnings revisions, you can already see that u.s. earnings revisions are highly benefiting from this weaker dollar. anna: ok. max, thanks very much. max kettner, hsbc multi-asset strategist, joining us here on "bloomberg surveillance." the conversation around inflation will be very topical at jackson hole. that is coming up thursday this week. stay with the bloomberg for our full

even in europe, you are seeing flareups here and there. i think we will be on a roller coaster for quite a while until it get a vaccine. matter, we need some treatment.cine when you read these terrible news items where people are still getting billed -- unfortunately, some people not making it through their illnesses, it scares people. people want to feel safe. you go on holiday, you don't want to feel nervous. alix: all that needs to cash burn, etc.. you did not have to raise any cash so far. you are cutting some of the workforce. how many lovers left the you have to make it through until vaccine?a glenn: i think we actually did raise over $4 billion. we felt pretty good about the $4 billion raise. we are feeling comfortable in terms of our balance sheet. we have no problem getting through this crisis. that being said, what will the other side look like? what is going to change in terms of the industry? you were mentioning business travel, business travel looks like -- it absolutely revenue. what is going to happen? to be goingot going on

falls after europe gains, you say europe -- see europe and down to match them -- go up to catch them. you see european stocks that are still higher after a week or close yesterday. we see stronger futures in the u.s.. dow futures are up almost 1%, s&p 500 futures and nasdaq futures are up .75%. you do see, it does look risk on. coming up on bloomberg television, with covid crushing the tourism industry, what is it going to take to get people traveling again. we will hear from the ceo of booking holdings and the world travel and tourism council ceo, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open, 30 minutes into wednesday's session in europe and we are managing to eek out gains for equities, up .25%. u.s. futures pointing higher, helping us get over disappointment after the confusion yesterday where we saw weakness. the grr tells us the sector perspective. a focus on travel and leisure coming through in the program this morning. in the nextguests 20 minutes to talk about that. travel and leisure is the biggest losing sector. interesting in passing because w

it's kept here at this secret location in western europe. william wiley used to work for the united nations investigating human rights abuses for human courts in former yugoslavia and in rwanda he heads the commission for international justice and accountability and gathers evidence against assad's regime. basically. what you have in this room are materials generated by the security intelligence structures of sure the military structures of syria and the party or political structures of syria at the top level and the government level. records and files of the syrian regime cleaned examined and archived especially for the investigating authorities and courts in europe. wiley and other investigators are financially supported by european governments when the war in yugoslavia ended in the 9. the international tribunal was missing many important files to prevent this from happening again the commission secured and smuggled over 800000 documents out of the case of the syrian civil war. is convinced that it will be enough to prove the syrian leade

and into europe? >> it is probably one of the most crucial point to be made about beer gardens in your -- munich. perspective, i think the europe story has been a bit overblown. i can't see it outperforming massively over the u.s. in the next couple of weeks and months. we do know that really positioning and sentiment toward europe has become stretched. when i wrote a note on the end of u.s. exceptionalism, i don't think we are there yet. sentiment has become bearish around the u.s. recovery, the dollar, the trajectory of the virus. that has been almost exactly the opposite for europe. at the end of the day, what you are buying in the eurozone is a load of financials and they are not in that good of a state. in multi-asset, we still stick equities.ght in it's going to be tricky to see that going to 120 or 125. almost like old prices where you see more and people coming out with even more exuberant dollar targets. the levels where we are right now, that should be the best is,ntum because my issue from

nejra: welcome to "daybreak europe." really interesting moves yesterday, we saw a pullback in the s&p 500, snapping the best winning streak since 2017. you saw treasury yields jumped the most since june. supply coming on the market. the ppi numbers, as well. that beat down gold, too. interesting that we saw a little bit of divergence and treasuries and a pullback in the stay-at-home trade at the same time. manus: absolutely. the curve steepen's. when these move comes, they come in lumps and size. at the beginning of a size move. we have to begin with abn, amro. the loan losses were better than had been expected, but it is the wholesale change that is coming. they are going to split the corporate and investment banking into core, non-core activities. they are looking to extricate themselves from finance outside europe, focus the attention of the business. you are looking at commodity finance operations being dropped . the probability of 800 jobs are at risk as we look at about 45% of their client loans in those divisions

europe has known terrible wars in its history, most centuries have been marked by dreadful wars in europe and the 19th century was one of the most peaceful and prosperous and progressive centuries in european history, perhaps the most peaceful, prosperous and progressive that europe had ever known. there had been a number of short wars after the napoleonic wars ended in 1915, but those wars were short and usually fought between two countries like the franco-prussian war and europeans had begun to think by the beginning of the 20th century that they had somehow changed and their world had changed and that they would go on living in a peaceful world and they would go on living peaceful on and progressive and societies and this was going to spread around the world. we look back and see how foolish that was and this is something that many people in europe, the thinking before 1914 which made the shock of the first world war all the greater. european, after four years of war, a war which they had hoped would be short and decisive and after four years of a dreadful war they looked back and look

europe had few and europe was doing great. u.s. was doing terribly and at that time i thought the narrative had gone too far and we would see a normalization which is to say a slowing of infection in the pace in the u.s. and increase in europe and that's what we're seeing now >> on that point we're seeing rising numbers in europe and according to some indicators, improvement in the united states why hasn't this translated into renewed dollar strength? >> that's a very good question i have been wrong on the dollar now because i have been bullish and the market has tried to embrace the decline narrative but one of the reasons it's so difficult is because it by definition means the rest of the worlds currencies excluding the dollar will be stronger. most don't tend to react well. certainly not at a time facing their own economic challenges. so for me it's difficult to get that without it being in a global economic upswing that's being lead by the rest of the world. i think all other environments tend to be okay for the dollar if not v

was europe not africa the actual cradle of humanity. athens capital of greece and ancient birthplace of democracy. for years now the german paleontologist madeleine buena has been researching the natural history of this region. what she discovered could radically change our understanding of human evolution. the saudi doesn't it great climate today is mediterranean hot dry summers and cool when winters for the 7000000 years ago things were very different the landscape covered today by athens used to be grass on the savannah 7 of us and the animals that lived here at that time were diff. into greece was home to several species of elephant. there were also rhinos. giraffes. and ostriches animals that today live in africa it's not the enemy it was 4 or 5 degrees warmer than now and whether to a last war or just. at that time 7000000 years ago a mysterious creature lived in southeastern europe. only a few traces of it remain. it may have been our very earliest ancestor. the search for traces of this creature brought madeleine burma to invest

we are not europe's police because for the. of what we see along the mediterranean to signal to migrants they have no chance of reaching europe. and then they won't even come to libya to begin with. the. migrants who are turned back to land a sent to prison many end up song to traffickers migrants from the mediterranean take enormous risks to avoid being intercepted by the libyan coast guard. or in european aid organizations come to help shipwrecked people our rescue work becomes even more difficult but when migrants see the foreign ships they do everything they can to reach them. and the people for them. one such encounter took place in november 27th tain. a rubber boat carrying an estimated $140.00 people started sinking in international waters off the libyan coast leaving crosscut and a vessel operation by the german enjoy. see watch both arrived at the same. as the n.g.o.s rescue boats approached some why those who could not swim was struggling to stay afloat the levy improve made no move to help. thank god he thanked he. t

and ultimately the entire continent of europe. underline leads to our allies alone, the services of supply shipped approximately 25 billion dollars worth of war material. general these included approximately 850,000 pieces of heavy equipment, tanks. locomotives, trucks. free french forces in north africa were supplied enough arms and materials to a 12 combat divisions. millions of dollars worth of supplies went to china. flown there from india. to russia alone over the summary troops of murmansk, almost a half million pieces of heavy equipment. or last stores of munitions and equipment went to england and the commonwealth. all of this wall we were supplying our own widely deployed forces and building up mountains of supplies for the massive invasion of europe yet to come. the miracle of supply achieved by the united states army in world war ii was historic. it represented the outpouring of a great nations energies and resources not for conquest but to win freedom for man who would be free everywhere. mighty america had come forwar

in europe and that means that you know europe is lacking leverage somewhat in this global decision making process and it's also likely that this will accelerate though process towards a more localized into that here in europe as well. more and more governments and citizens are aware how valuable data is and who gets to exploit it all right conrad booze and with us from frankfurt thank you over asia now we're chinese exports have seen another unexpected jump the government says customs data showed exports rising 7.5 percent in july compared to a year earlier that's another positive sign for the world's 2nd largest economy following june's 3 percent gain sales in the u.s. rose despite the terrible with washington chinese exports have been rebounding from the coronavirus faster than the global total suggesting that is manufacturers are taking market share from from competitors in country still under restrictions. over lebanon were times were already tough food prices on the rise power outages becoming more frequent and coronavirus case numbers climbing now the need to rebuild the country's l

here and in many parts of europe. even though the arrivals, the numbers arriving on greece's a la sea shores are smaller, but the numbers are growing, as we found out when we went to northern gree. the first rays of day, the first stirrings beneath the burnt out carriages in this railyard in northern greece. these young men are mostly from afghanistan, waiting to jump on a tatin, jum a chance to move further north into europe, aat chance, they hope better life. >> we do not know which one is go, but we are ready for when. lyse: but so are the police. >>es police com. lyse: a game of cat and mouse at this stop. this morning, the police win. they often do. the 17-year-old is from pakistan. homany times have you tried to jump on a train? >> six times, seven times. each and every one of them, they try to hang on them, because the problem of police and immigration,he people leave is area. lyse: their next destination, greece's border with north macedonia. ve years ago, thousands took this route through a tiny border villag

and in europe. i think really going forward what is going to be crucial is whether we do see a vaccine. i think a vaccine is going to be needed to kind of propel this upward lift in yield. i think ultimately, though, given the fact that we are seeing just this economic uncertainty, the fact that we are seeing central banks kind of wanting to maintain these easy financial conditions that we are going to see really range-rebound treasuries going forward without kind of that catalyst on the up side to kind of break them out of that on a sustained basis. >> laura, thank you very much. she was joining us with a look at the markets there. from one laura to another. let's get a news update. we stay here in london with laura wright. >> thanks. israel and the united arab emrate have agreed to begin normalizing relations. the u.s. hailed it as a key step toward peace in the region. at one time sides will hold a range of talks in coming reams. israel has adreed to suspend its efforts to and ex-the west bask. p

do you see that in europe? i do see that in europe and i sympathise with mark, my teenage daughter has also suffered tremendously from the lack of socialisation, because of lockdown. we need to sympathise and understand that the lives that young people are experiencing at the moment are a far cry from what young people expected to live in their past. in europe, i think we see the rising spike, in france, in spain, to a certain extent in portugal, is associated with movements of young people. the opening of nightclubs, the socialisation in beaches, parties and so on, it will mean that there's a much higher transmission rate. and the big worry is, this will continue once schools will open and some universities will open. so it is quite a bit concerning. do you have a sense of where this fits into the global picture? because if this joie de vivre language applies, presumably, to young people in the developed world, in the developing world, the picture is extremely critical for young people economically, as well as

europe and china. in many ways, what exists in europe with regards to china, transparency, around doing business or technology transfers, all of those issues -- the u.s. and europe share those concerns, the approach they take tends to be much slower collateral and slower moving in europe as opposed to the u.s., with president trump. interestingthe most things i find, stephanie, is one of the few bipartisan issues in america, the general anti-china tone. do you perceive that a president biden would be that much different in final outcome from a president trump? stephanie: i think if we split it into the kind of ways it is playing out with politics, the politics of it, there are the tariffs and the non-tariff that we are seeing. the nontariff action we have seen has not primarily been republicans, but it has been bipartisan. i think that doesn't change, and those pressures, that kind of gradually across the u.s. and china come it pushes it apart regards to capital flows. i think that will continue wherev

so let's start with this offer of medical assistance what sign is europe sending with these offers but sending a sign that 1st of all wants to help alexander and of on the kremlin critic at the same time this is something that putin the russian president might see taking sides we know that there have been conversations in connection with bella verse between. malcourt and putin recent days and now we suddenly have this case of alexander in our valley which raises more questions marks about what is going on in russia but also about relations the european union the system mind ourselves i mean when you say we saw europe take a very firm stance and that was repeated during this process press conference today when it comes to bellow verse with leaders speaking also to vatican who sees this clearly as his spear of influence let's just take a listen to what i'm going to matthew had to say about that. we are showing that we see dialogue with russia and if want to with beller us to president lukashenko has so far not spoken with anyone on the phone but we will of course insist on certain condit

etf iq europe up next. journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. ♪ ♪ businesses are starting to bounce back. but what if you could do better than that? like adapt. discover. deliver. in new ways. to new customers. what if you could come back stronger? faster. better. at comcast business, we want to help you not just bounce back. but bounce forward. that's why we're helping you stay ahead and adapt with a network you can count on, 24/7 support and flexible solutions that work wherever you are. call or go online today. francine: welcome to bloomberg etf iq europe. over the next 30 minutes we will be your guide to the market and exchange traded funds. where you need to know everything about the funds and the flows. francine: still shining, eight of the 10 were focused on gold. we will ask of gold -- bullion can keep on climbing. european etf assets top of the $1 trillion mark. equity and flows have underperformed. fixed income. we will ask why. after a slow start, exchange traded funds are takin

in europe, a resurgence of the virus. france reported almost 4009 hundred new cases over a 24 hour jumpd, the largest one-day since the previous peak in mid april. maria tadeo joins us from brussels. what is the picture looking like across europe? >> the number of cases climbed to levels we have not seen since april, may. yesterday the french put out that data that shows a big one-day increase. when you look at pain, now very much the epicenter in europe, cases have just rocketed in places like madrid. the government is under huge pressure to declare the state of emergency once again. the idea of a second wave is now openly talked about in spain. the numbers have not changed across europe and that is creating a lot of worry that perhaps we are going to see more cases climb up as we get to the flu season. also questions as to what does it mean for the recovery? with theoing to happen school year? this is a crucial question for europe. schools open in two weeks time. it is key for parents to go back to normal work hours. ar

versus europe or asia? alexandra: most of them are domestically focused and we are seeing a lot of inflow as a result of fx having come down. in terms of diversification there are issuers in europe that are benefiting as economies pick up. and there are issuers within the u.s. that are outperforming. it is really about picking and choosing your spot. alix: would you touch travel with a 10 foot pole? alexandra: absolutely. we are seeing a lot of retail earnings that have come in through the week and we use them to look at the overall health of the consumer because we are long-term investors and focused on what the consumer is saying about the health of the economy, and you are seeing that either through retail sales or earnings that the consumer is doing well and in part we are cognizant of what is happening with stimulus. on top of that, you are seeing some of the marginal wallet share from millennials go to home-improvement, but we do think that is something that is happening currently when it is not being

what saw and do we have europe sending with that it is certainly is sending a sign that europe wants to help you've got to. offer and to help if it was requested but of course that also runs a risk of perhaps russian president vladimir putin interpret in that as europe taking sides that said we do now know that. it is actually planning to go and collect this evening and that's going to be with a team that specialize in tree interest specializes in treating close patients and that's actually being arranged by the foundation cinema for peace foundation which also previously arranged for a kremlin critic who had been poisoned. also come to bell and say what we know so far is that no bonnie is expected to then be treated at the sheraton hospital here in berlin in the german capital. we have we have somebody with merkel is that correct yes. we are showing that we seek dialogue with russia and if want to with beller us to president bush has so far not spoken with anyone on the phone we will of course insist on certain conditions the release of prisoners no violence free speech the right to

that is probably when you want europe over the u.s.. europe is a lot heavier in the classic value sets because of cyclicals. the stimulus globally helps. it had to the pile. you are right. germany is not a country that would have thought for a minute about fiscal stimulus 12 months ago and seems to be embracing it wholeheartedly at the moment. it helps. alix: so, a recovery versus rebound is what i was talking about and i think it is what you are alluding to as well. do you have to wait to buy europe before -- until there is a recovery, and in the meantime, what is the rebound trade? chris: you have to have conviction there will be a recovery to buy it. you might take the view that there are four or five that seems in a serious stage in phase three trials and looks like one or two in the u.k., the u.s., and so on -- one of them might come through quite meaningfully. you could take a view on that or take a view that you are cautious about that and we know vaccines don't always work and you get to stage three and things could be difficult

and europe. you relative call coming you could see some of that underperformance potentially catching up. strategist reading a referencing pmi data and suggesting there might be, a move in pmi. allied moving european stocks. that relationship between pmi indicators and stocks, does that still hold? to verybe subject different influences in the covid-19 period. nick: that's right. when you look back over time, a lot of the analysis we use -- [inaudible] greathave always been indicators for a turn in the equity market. turned inmi's december. a couple of months before the market low in march. foras a good indicator investors to start moving back into equities. look at europe. pmi's at a low around q1. they were down to 13. they are up over 50. that's giving you some confidence that things are getting better. one word of caution on this. the pmi's are referring to the change and economic activity, not necessarily the level. 50, the most recent numbers are improving compared to the month before. give

what -- of europe. what do you think? carsten: to meet, it still means -the market is looking for items. the market still believes in the v-shaped rebound. but the next couple of weeks will show the hard data coming in for the month of july, whether this v-shaped rebound would actually also be the v-shaped recovery. and i have my doubts there because we will have so many second round effects. look at the labor market. we've got businesses going bust. i think that this v-shaped will become something like a j shape recovery going to the last quarter of the year. matt: how much of a concern is the second wave of the coronavirus? it does seem that most governments have rejected the idea of future lockdowns. but clearly the populace is worried about it. i mean, there were at least 100-200,000 people on the weekend,let's a over the protesting masks. how much of a concern is this? carsten: the economic outlook, obviously there is a concern. if you that now as governments try to keep it local and regional. we've had a couple loca