jonathan: morgan stanley slightly negative. if i keep doing this, it is going to be like a horse race. i am just going to stop. romaine is going to pick up in a moment. james gorman saying the firm is very well-positioned for growth. sonali, we had every big bank on wall street so far. it has been a big quarter for many of them, in terms of year-to-date, equity gains, stock price gains. these numbers have been absolutely stellar. sonali: it is still a long year ahead, jon. goldman said that prime brokerage was consolidating. what becomes of that archegos hit and their future in prime brokerage? any tightening moving forward? relationships with clients changing? wall street will be watching very closely. jonathan: and we will be catching up with you on this story. morgan stanley comes out with some decent numbers, widely expected, and talking up a better outlook as well. ceo james gorman saying the firm as well -- the firm is very well-positioned for growth. a $911 million loss tied to archegos capital. that single-family office

morgan stanley, that your big story this morning. spurred by a 911 a million-dollar hit on the archegos blowup -- a 911 million-dollar hit on the archegos blowup. that's what we are talking about, yet on the other side of the story, record numbers. let's bring in sonali wasik. they post these -- sonali basak. they post these record numbers and nobody talks about them because we are so used to seeing these numbers. sonali: just amazing results in terms of trading and investment banking. when it comes to morgan stanley, we are still trying to absorb what $911 million means in terms of a loss tied to a civil client. to what extent will james gorman say what goldman sachs said, that these kind of events can happen the future? are we still concerned about excessive leverage and risk taking? morgan stanley, that kind of commentary matters more because they are big in equities and prime brokerage. but this quarter, i am already cutting text messages from their clients, and what they are saying is $911 million is larger than what was expecte

from october low morgan stanley up 85% verse the s&p up 25%. it's trading 40 plus above his moving day average only happened one or two other time in history so it's pretty hot and options approach is smart. this is tragic, the stock is still below its peek from 2000 imagine that, 20 years and you still haven't made any money in morgan stanley. >> wow that puts it into perspective to say the least all right, tony, we're back to you. >> well, when you look at this really from my perspective the trading revenue this particular quarter may not be as strong especially with equity volatility coming down that's my concern here again, the template from last couple quarters every time this stock has blown earnings outside of the water stocks down 10%, i expect you will see a similar template next week. >> okay. inside multi million dollar volatility play that signals one big market player thinks the rally is running a little too hot. remember for everything "options action" check out our website and sign up for our neleerwstt back after this. ♪ ♪ â

morgan stanley reporting earnings next week along with the other banks. tony jang saying this stock might be ready for a breather. >> after almost a 55% move since the election, i do think it's time for perhaps some of these banks to take a bit of a pause, especially as interest rates also take a bit of a pause here. if we look at the chart here, the stock looks fairly strong. it recent broke out above its $77 resistance level, came back to hold that as support, but momentum is starting to slow down here. and more importantly, if you look at more insanely relatives of the financial sector, it's starting to lose that relative strength here on the last move higher here. when you see this type of slowdown on momentum and relative strength going into an earnings event, that's a concern for me so, when i'm looking at the earnings here, over the past two quarters, you've had some very strong beats on both revenue and earnings yet the stock declined almost 10%, roughly two weeks post those events i'm looking at that similar template, especially with trading reve

good for morgan stanley. good for goldman sachs they have risk management in place. people at very high levels at these banks, something that we talked about value at risk, every single day those numbers were looked at at goldman sachs and morgan stanley and i'm sure they look at today and i'm going to get mad at a lot of people and there is a reason it is called second tier banks and it is playing out right before your very eyes and $4.7 billion loss and the world has changed a loss and that was the aggregate loss that element took the banking system down in the day. and bill wang, and i don't think i'm speaking out of turn, he pled guilty nine years ago and they paid fines between $45 and $60 million and here we are back in business, it speaks volumes as the amount of liquidity and people keep going back to the well that is a the bigger problem and i'm sure sheila could speak on that. >> let's bring her in now. sheila bear is former fdic chair and now director of the culver alliance >> thanks for having me. >> so does this say to you that the u.s. banking system is

andrew sheets to join us of morgan stanley. in this hour we are joined by the president of the united states. jonathan: andy president of the ecb as well. the president -- and the president of the ecb. the president of the united states set to speak. we will take those comments from the president. press release from the adminstration this morning on new greenhouse gas emission targets. this is a big domestic push, not just an international one. tom: and also the reaffirmation of emissions. it seems to me this is a reaffirmation of pre-trump climate change in america. how do they do that without making it obvious? jonathan: reaffirming that and re-upping it, and trying to reclaim some credibility on an issue they lost on khamenei be a lot more than others, in the previous four years -- they lost on, maybe a lot more than others, in the previous four years. lisa: we have been talking all mornings about how there are two prongs to this. the domestic story, that this will bring investment back to the u.s. and create better jobs and

we are morgan stanley. esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. >>> at this time of the week, we like to go over the landscape for spacs. which of course we've spent so much time talking about this year, given their importance in the capital markets, and the importance they've had to any number of investment banking firm, and morgan stanley and goldman sachs and goldman says 15%, as i recall, but they have been an important component but slowing down dramatically in terms of issuance and this week is less than last week, and last week less than the week prior to that you can take a look. still looking for deals, 431, filed not yet public,

i love stanley tucci but it's stanley driving around italy going to these incredible places and eating wherever he goes. they get into the world best italian food. the whole thing, every episode is stanley going all my god. i could do that. i could go over there, eat that food. i would weigh 800 pounds. but i can do that. >> this is the dream job. he is living the dream. i want that. i want that job. >> i don't know whether to be envious and enjoy it or hate him and not want to watch. i'm sitting here eating doritos out of theback . >> i haven't been able to bring myself to watch. >> if you want, everybody who watches immediately order pizza or goes into the refrigerator. you get hungry. you're watching stanley, you go all my god because he's eating some cheese and your eating papa john'sor whatever . >> this is a question for you, when did you guysrealize you were funny ? >> you take that one first. >> that's all i had. i had no skill. i was not a good athlete. i was as they call it a bloomer . in order to keep the larger carrier boys from sticking me into the toilet in junior high sc

morgan stanley coming along for the ride. morgan stanley up $1.20. i do not want to make a big deal of the price action on the likes of wells fargo and jp morgan. let sit on jp morgan just a moment. down .6%. not a dramatic move. a big conversation about loan demand. they are so cashed up on a consumer basis on the aggregate level, and at the business level as well. that is why the demand is not there. the economy is so healthy and fiscal stimulus has done so much heavy lifting, particularly on the consumer side. if you cannot make it up in volume, what you have to do westmark -- what you have to do? this will be the key going forward. these banks got a tremendous pop off the back of what is happened in the yield curve. steeper profitability. that is one yield of profitability. it is far more nuanced than that. this is tv and radio. i have 30 seconds left. yields up on the 10 year to 1.63. if you cannot make up in volume, can you get a helping hand from the bond market westmark that will be interesting -- can you get a helping hand from the bond mark

i've been out of those names, holding serve on morgan stanley. if conditions for treasury yields as they are, morgan stanley i will add. >> you are telling me jp morgan needs to look at it as investors or our viewers so differently than the other big banks you mentioned? that's what you're saying. >> yes, you do it is true. >> but that's not how the sector trades though. >> you always look -- >> that's not how the sector trades though. >> no. >> i'm looking at the returns here i'm looking at the returns i mean, all right, year-to-date, jp morgan may be up slightly less than bank of america, 54% to 60% respectively. over a year the gains are not that far apart either, but you are suggesting that you need to look at this one different than you look at all of the others. >> so over the course of a year, the gains are not going to be different because the move in yields didn't begin until the end of 2020. at the beginning of that one-year time frame, i owned jp morgan i talked with you about owning it why? you wanted that higher quality, lower beta e

stanley arrived with a dozen europeans we met at the consul's and he told me. we wish you to accept to become governor in the name of belgium and your voice the belgian flag and the districts are under your rule. i hosted wanted stanley falls when i arrived and my men did the same wherever we came. former slaves were enlisted in the conquering armies weapons in hand the french the belgian and the british went deeper and deeper into the equitorial forest. europeans placed peasant communities under military control and forced them to produce palm oil rubber cocoa coffee and of course. it's very clear every single state used forced labor all of them. in some cases this labor strongly resemble slavery or they would take people from their villages and pay them almost nothing especially for so-called public works yeah. they had to provide for their own food and were later sent back home or some no longer fit in. really to be treated you feel. in this forced labor system missionary's became witnesses to the farmers abuses armies bankrolled by the belgians terrorized v

wells fargo up 8% whereas the likes of morgan stanley down 2.5% for the week. there goes the close, sara at the close, a record close for the s&p 500 up 0.3%, dow up half a percent. nasdaq just positive at the close. all of those averages up more than a percent for the week. >>> a strong finish capping off a very strong week for stocks. welcome back, everyone, to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen along with wilfred frost and mike santoli double record close. the dow closing up 166 points, half a percent, and at a new record high. closed above 34,000 yesterday for the first time ever. solidly above there as well. you had a shift into the value in cyclical names which helped some of the larger cap stocks and the s&p 500, which closed at its own record high up 0.4 of 1% materials the best sector. the only two losing sectors were technology and energy. but for the week every single sector closed higher utilities came up on top along with materials the nasdaq finished up about a tengt of 1%. it's not too far off from its own record high. also closed higher for the week.

mike wilson will build us of morgan stanley -- will join us of morgan stanley in a moment. tom orlik at global economics for bloomberg has got a boom global economy off of a boom american economy. jonathan: i will let the market talk for me. the dollar index last month, best month since november 2016. why? because growth in america is looking so much better to what we see out of, say, europe. how does that change for q2, q3? that is the big unknown. the bar is pretty high. tom: lisa, you have had the courage to get out before the immediate year to q3, q4, even into 2022, into this q2. it is a mystery, isn't it? lisa: the idea that we are going to see growth rates that we have not seen in the united states since the 1970's, but what does that mean for the longer-term? there is a growing feeling that there's a conviction -- jonathan: someone sounds like morgan stanley. lisa: i thing it's working. tom: let's do one more thought here before we get to mr. wilson of morgan stanley. we will look at the data as well. you mentioned earlier this good news is continued good news from

say it is stanley all now but why do these firms even have brokerage. i wonder sometimes does nam ra really need to have it when they lose $2 billion and there is county party risk for the hedge funds that do business with them too remember leanmen when they do the swaps. so even may be hesitant to do business with some of them in the future. >> if you are trying to crack into the business maybe you offer prime brokerage or give a rebate something that attracts them i totally agree david. one of the things you learn at one of these firms is that if someone can't pay, you better get rid of it so fast whatever you own. it is never i remember there was a cline client i had and i went to the person in charge of my division. i said i don't know. i think the stock is too low i think we ought to hold it. and the guy said absolutely. picked up the phone and sold it. i thought you agreed he goes only idiots hold stock what are you trying to do? play the market what do you know about these -- >> i don't know where they got their culture. everyone i've ever dealt

stanley arrived with a dozen europeans we met at the consul's and he told me. we wish you to accept to become governor in the name of belgium and that your voice the belgium flying in the districts are under your rule i hosted wanted stanley falls when i arrived on my amended the same wherever we came. former slaves were enlisted in the conquering armies weapons in hand the french the belgian and the british went deeper and deeper into the equitorial forest. europeans placed peasant communities under military control and forced them to produce palm oil rubber cocoa coffee and of course. it's very clear every single state used forced labor all of them. in some cases this labor strongly resemble slavery or they would take people from their villages and pay them almost nothing especially for so-called public works yet. they had to provide for their own food and were later sent back home where some no longer fit in. if you do feel. in this forced labor system missionary's became witnesses to the farmer's abuses armies bankrolled by the belgians terrorized villagers

i genuinely believe this, if we got morgan stanley -- if we at morgan stanley do our job, it will be covered by our tech or software team because that will be the model, and they can come it versus those types of stocks instead of looking at a legacy auto company and saying tesla looks expensive, and then dropping the mic. alix: that's one way to look at that, but to the tech companies become car companies? adam: yes. alix: how do you see the apple card playing out? adam: we think -- the apple car playing out? adam: we think you could say elon might be annoyed or a little distracted by volkswagen, but what we think he's really focused on are the apples and that genre. those are the ones that could really get a big chunk of the market globally and in the u.s.. we think those risks at tesla are mega tech, getting into transportation, and being able to do things that tesla does and even more, considering the capacity of the ecosystem. the other concern, and it is not really to single out china or even tesla, but we think as the automobile becomes a transport utility like telecom and ele

he's from japan. >> bona sera. >> bona sera. >> stanley. nice to meet you. >> nice to meet you. >> kotura noda was lured her by his obsession with italian cuisine. noda's food has won praise for its creativity. but tonight he's making one of the classics. one of the more famous classics. literally "cheese and pepper." there are just three main ingredients. but it takes great skill to make this roman favorite perfect. of course, another italian kitchen secret. >> could take awhile . >> i know you may be thinking this is ludicrously simple food. but believe me, it's extraordinary. and don't just take my word for it. >> where's karen? karen? come here. okay. this is karen, who works with us. one of the producers. she's from rome. so you tell us what you think, karen. >> okay. >> all right, go ahead. no, no pressure, no pressure. >> okay. >> he's not nervous at all. he doesn't care about our opinion. >> it's divine. yes. it's so good. it's perfectly creamy. it's not too intense. it's not overloaded with flavor. >> yeah. >> the best pepper. he r

morgan stanley wasn't quite first. but was early. and we thought early enough not to have the big losses it does have a $900 million loss i'll be interested to see if we get more information because they were the front-runner and lead on that secondary pacing was a factor. >> okay. appreciate very much great to see you have a great weekend when we come back, we've been talking a lot about infrastructure that infrastructure plan coming out of washington. but there are also some ambitious construction projects happening in china right now they could have major implications for the global markets. we have a live report on the ground there when "squawk box" comes back right after this. the rx crafted by lexus. get 0.9% apr financing on the 2021 rx 350 experience amazing at your lexus dealer. this is wealth. get 0.9% apr financing on the 2021 rx 350 ♪ ♪ this is worth. that takes wealth. but this is worth. and that - that's actually worth more than you think. don't open that. wealth is important, and we can help you build it. but it's

morgan stanley was the underwriter on the secondary. i'm not saying they did anything wrong but you can see where the sec might look at that and it's a great piece of bloomberg which talked about how morgan stanley was counting on mr. wong to be a buyer and he cannot because he was losing money and the others in getting margin calls from the other banks. that tells you how crazy the situation was. just so we know it gives the market some inside of risk-taking it can lead to big losses. it would be nice if the sec does that pre-will see what happens. liz: i'm not going to compare bill wong to bernie made off but when 70 present themselves that i worked in tiger management on this and that and i'm friends with everybody and wall street closes his eyes and says here's some money. it's a problem and they should learn. >> before we start making comparisons like that we have no evidence of bill wong wide, no one is saying that he lied. liz: exactly that's why i said they just handed over because they think they know him. thank you very much,

morgan stanley pricing seven eight $5 billion that. junk rated u.s. company casting a 12 month, the sheer volume already close to 100 19 billion, 40 4% of 2020. jeff, i talk about a little bit. you're not have gone back and forth on that and helpings of change, i think what has happened with yields over the last six months, many people have thought about bringing in -- you made the point that people have reduced their rate's closure, but increase their effective equity dashed equity exposure. >> a simple way of thinking about it is that high-yield bonds are not bonds, they are stocks in bond loathing. another way of saying that high-yield bonds are -- higher risk. because of that higher risk component, you have a higher we. that you recognize that the blonde portfolios not behaving way lies should have to. more nuisance of i deals that high-yield. we went up with is a portfolio that increases the income and yield, but it just so why shake more exposure and wish closer you lost some of that what role you if you are going to rain from, most meeting sour

stanley. grazie. hidden behind this 400-year-old door is a world i've never encountered. i have been invited to dinner by a real life princess. >> stanley. >> princess stefania di raffadali is one of the last surviving members of a sicilian royal family. >> nice to see you. >> thank you very much. >> i'm very happy to be here. the princess became a royal through marriage to a direct descendant of the norman conquest. this palace has been in her husband's family since the 16th century and is preserved like a living museum. >> how long were you married? >> we were married in '57. >> when did he pass away? >> ten years ago. he loved this house very much so the only thing i can do is to keep it, to maintain it. >> it's absolutely beautiful. >> but as thrilled as i am to meet the princess, that's not the only reason i wanted to come here. i am on the hunt for the perfect timballo. look at that, so pretty. a baked mold of pasta or rice with rich ingredients. it's a dish i'm obsessed with. oh, wow. >> every family has a different way of making it? >> yes. >> and have i heard tha

i'm stanley tucci. i'm italian on both sides, and i'm traveling across italy to discover how the food in each of this country's 20 regions is as unique as the people and their past. that's delicious. here in milan, the menu is nothing like you expect. up here in the north, forget about pasta and pizza. >> oh, my god, that's so beautiful. >> this is the land of rice and polenta. >> polenta in the ancient time, it was like the bread. >> people from south of italy call us polentoni. >> there isn't even a tomato in sight. >> this is amazing. >> and olive oil plays second fiddle to butter. jesus, whoa, jesus. >> warning, irresponsible amounts of butter were used in the making of this program. >> i hate to say it, but you need more butter. ♪ >> milan is the second biggest city in italy. it's the capital of lom barry, a region in the north of the peninsulaing the gateway to northern europe and all of the trade and money that that brings. sophisticated, elegant, and rich. milan is the epicenter of design, fas

jonathan: morgan stanley coming up later. we will be talking about a massive quarter for the investment bake over at -- investment bank over at goldman-s thinks -- over at goldman sachs. i think bank of america was early this week so look for those numbers this morning. i want to show you the price action. shaping up as follows on the equity market, higher on the s&p 500. we advance 1/10 of 1%. heading for a fourth straight week of gains. yields are unchanged, 157. the fx market, the euro-dollar a push higher. euro-dollar 119.78. lisa: as well as the weaker bond market, the higher yield the lower the price. has that gotten worked out? that is one of the questions underpinning the market moves. we expect morgan stanley first-quarter earnings, they could come perhaps at 6:30. the expectation will be for a blowout capital markets quarter. the key question will be how did their acquisitions of e-trade play into their acquisitions play into -- their acquisitions play into profitability? we get some housing data in respect to build

morgan stanley, goldman sachs, going to be fascinating. >> hopefully yes, we'll get more color in terms of the outlook in terms of the capital markets activity and net interest can continue through the rest of the year. >> we look forward to that that does it for cloegt. h "closing bell" have a great weekend. "fast money" begins now. >> i'm in for melissa lee, this is "fast money." tonight's trader lineup guy adami, steve grasso, mcdonald and barbara ceo of win crest tonight on fast apple seeing its best week since january. names like facebook, al apple hit highs. is a buy now plus boeing taking max 737 out of commission on the heels of another production product we'll talk about what it means for the embattled planemaker and another bonus hour tonight the countdown of the trades of the week, tweet them to us as cnbc "fast money. let's start on wall street s&p with another record close, fourth of the week, that's the kinds of week it's been, leading the way, pvh, coach, tapestry, the rally coming in spite of higher than expected inflation data this morning. as we get ready for the start

so those are the numbers crossing on morgan stanley. we have made it through the week , maria and all of the big banks and the stock is heading higher. back to you. maria: all right, really good performance for a number of these companies with these capital markets the way they are , cheryl thank you so much. meanwhile, rising tensions in east asia. we are zeroing in on taiwan right now, after it reported an increased chinese military presence near taiwan, in taiwan air space. 25 war planes entering the country's air defense identification zone earlier this week. that's days after a warning from the united states. joining us right now is hudson institute senior fellow, rebeccah heinrichs. thanks very much for being here. the navy has already said the chief admiral is that he's worried that china may, in fact, invade taiwan sooner rather than later. your thoughts on what the united states' response should be, should that take place? >> good morning, maria thanks for having me on. so right now, as you mentioned, china has been acting much

in some ways, the loss made sense at morgan stanley relative to some of their peers because morgan stanley was the biggest prime broker to archegos. as we know from our own reporting, goldman had gotten in later on, so it makes sense that their exposure would have been less than morgan stanley's to begin with. he also called the sales of the stocks that contributed to more than $200 million of those losses is money well spent. alix: i'm sure, to get out of that and move on.aughter] sonali basak, things a lot for joining us -- sonali bassett, thanks a lot for joining us -- sonali basak, thanks a lot for joining us. joining us is chris difficult task -- christopher kotowski, oppenheimer senior analyst. christopher: if you look at the earnings season, it was pretty much as expected. i think this time last year, we were all acting a big wave of loan losses from the fallout -- we were all expecting a big wave of loan losses from the fallout of covid. that never happened. instead, you have these three countervailing impacts on the banks overall. one, you had rates plunge, and that put big pressu

jonathan: morgan stanley. that was a morgan stanley quote. i want to talk about ubs right now. what is material these days? lisa: and why did they not reveal the fact that they did have losses and that is why their shares are suffering. what are people missing in terms of risk management? jonathan: what is your take on that? credit suisse, a combined hit of $5.5 billion. ubs, $774 million, not material. it is in the context of what the earnings profile was for that quarter relative to what your competitors lost. i don't get it anymore. tom: you do leverage and you are successful, so you do it again and you leverage up further, and you do it again. i would suggest that the leverage up by these firms, their exposure to a family office, it is a hedge fund, their exposure was once successful, twice successful, 3, 4, 5 times, and then you are not. you see that constantly when you study failed hedges. jonathan: don't you think it is rich if a bank says we were not required to disclose until we reported the earnings this morning? at the same time, follow-up by saying we need more disc

morgan morgan stanley and asked jb morgan -- jp morgan , morgan stanley, and goldman sachs, is this a time when they tried to come in and take shares? lisa: on one hand, you've got to hit to credit suisse due to the archegos debacle. you've got the reputational damage. but you mentioned something else . this raises a question about the risk-taking ability, which is a key part of their income, especially now in such a low rate period of time. can you talk about how this raises potential risks for other banks, or is this idiosyncratic for its weeks? alison: i would say nothing is idiosyncratic, or it is hard to imagine something that is. i'm sure that desks across the street are looking at the risk, looking at the specifics of what's happened here. it is not just a postmortem for credit suisse, but for everyone else. i think the fact that there were some things the regulators are asking about shows that perhaps there are some risks in terms of monitoring new situations that might be better addressed more broadly. tom: would the swiss government allow morgan stanley to acquire credit sui

. >> i am stanley tucci. i am italian on both sides and i am traveling across italy to discover how the food in each of this country's 20 regions is as unique as the people and their past. >> anger, religion and death. it has everything in it. i am here to discover why this is home to the gastric superstars of the nation's food. >> this is made with love. >> and how people here really know how to wait for the best things in life. >> slow, slowly, slowly arrive at the point of excellence. >> right. >> and because we've waited -- >> 25 years. >> wow, really is good. oh, my god. i don't have to. so good. it's just one of the most delicious things on earth. for a greedy man, this place is the gigantic deli of my dreams. but don't fret, i have the metabolism of a teenager. the capitol of bologna, it's a wealthy region that straddles italy and is cocooned between the adrianic sea. it's a lush land of fertile valleys stuffed with livestock and billowing soft wheat. no wonder, it's also bred one of the world's best c

jonathan: do you want another big number from morgan stanley? you brought up payrolls a little bit earlier. payrolls, 1.2 5 million dollars is their estimate. right now, the median, $900,000. tom: this is so important. we are going out to michael feroli, we will find 7 million employed over the summer. lisa: does this count for jay powell? bully address that? -- will he address that? jonathan: we will figure that out later today. equity futures unchanged on the s&p. he is so upset now. [laughter] have you got a late afternoon, tom? looking forward to the show. tom: what about the "surveillance" nap? jonathan: you can take it in the pantry. isaac boltansky coming up next. this is bloomberg. ritika: tonight, president biden will unveil a $1.8 trillion plan to expand education opportunities and childcare for families. it will be paid for in part by the largest tax hikes on wealthy americans in decades. amongst the legislation provisions, pre-k and community college will be free, and the child tax credit would be extended. meanwhile, fund managers w

represents one side and tom represents the other side my name is stanley tom i'm the trouble minister for a newcomer to this and comes recently i was selected to be a missionary ward in your will it's schoolteaching new entity there was a election dispute. in october on day 12. the new cars from council. somebody who works there. said we've never had to. hide a while. and it's an accident yes you were being accused of not having it use 8 to 9 years of election when we moved in we had election and all these i know it was coming up. and some of the smarter words began following the money and realizing some of the money's not accounted for while they actually suspended the elections. well once they suspended the elections though there was a there was a feeling that the community was being left out of the process yeah they were scheduled to leave in 2012. but through the division and the infighting and some of the you know bureaucratic issues the stalled as it stands now the federal government cannot. contract with either group so what they did was they basically took the contract out of

let's bring in michael zezas, morgan stanley head of u.s. policy research and chief municipal strategist as well. those numbers at morgan stanley, how on earth do you come up with them? joe: fair enough -- michael: fair enough. you mentioned about $4 trillion of spending. when we break down the components of that, we try to count the votes that are out there in the senate and the house of representatives. almost all of that spending is pretty viable. it is really the taxes that we think aren't viable, at least all of the taxes. by our estimate, there's probably about $1.8 trillion or so of tax increases that are viable, including some corporate taxes, some personal income taxes. so your left with a deficit, which we don't think is particularly problematic, or is probably what is ultimately going to bridge the gap here. ultimately i think next year, you would be looking at a year one deficit hit of around $500 billion. that continues the fiscal expansion we had, continues to underwrite the v-shaped economic recovery, and increase the demand i

let's get to morgan stanley. most people don't believe that this is one of those events like you had during the football crisis that was -- financial crisis that was the canary in the coal mine. morgan stanley had a huge financial trading loss in the early days of the financial crisis, and it was the canary in the coal mine that more problems were ahead and eventually the firm needed a bailout to survive. that's not what we have here. we have what a lot of people believe, analysts believe is a one-off. it's going to -- it affected today's earnings call, this quarter's earnings call. the stock off today, but that's about it. morgan stan arely had a pretty good quarter other than this loss. where i think people, meaning lawyer, securities lawyers and analysts are worried is, you know, this type of loss at major u.s. bank, does that, you know, foreshadow regulation from gary gensler, and i think that's where this thing is getting very interesting according to my sources, that they think you can see a crackdown on ce

sonali: i still always compare goldman sachs and morgan stanley. morgan stanley is rising a bit above and beyond goldman sachs in terms of its market value, and also i believe it is price-to-book, so you want to see that goldman sachs catch up story in regards to morgan stanley, which is also going to be integrating major businesses this year. that to me is my question. goldman is bigger and it comes to pure numbers and some of these businesses, but what does morgan stanley look like in some of these core businesses on friday? jonathan: let's go through some of these numbers. i will do it a little more slowly this time so we can process the situs of -- the size of them. these are huge relative to expectations. investment banking revenue at $3.57 billion. the estimate was $2.68 billion. we can do it again with fic trading revenue. sonali, what did we miss in the first quarter to miss these numbers by this much? sonali: how much money trading is actually going to make you, i think is what perhaps analysts were not really understanding. there was a sa

rishaad: we have also got news morgan stanley did act swiftly and managed to eliminate exposure to the losses. huge contrast here. >> yeah, it is not clear if credit suisse waited, but those firms that acted quickly managed to escape virtually unscathed as the tally of losses and non-losses reveals. notably, morgan stanley, goldman, deutsche bank, virtually no losses or impacts, and bloomberg has learned from a person with knowledge of the matter that morgan stanley actually pulled a $5 billion basket of shares the day before. we also know goldman acted swiftly. go to the bloomberg and you will see credit suisse did not unload its two-point $10 billion in holdings until this week. the losses taken virtually wiped out a year's worth of profits, and looking at a series of what analysts say were missteps and poor management decisions climaxing in the march debacle, it appears that, as jp morgan analysts say, it will take some time for credit suisse to recover from this. they plan to update on greenfield losses yet to come. back to you. rishaad: a lot more on the way. just a reminder of wh

wait for sellers to dissipate with that and starbucks and buy the stock with stanley back and decker tomorrow morning. how could so many investors be wrong about stocks is going on? well, it happens all the time when union pacific reported last week, the numbers they looked incredibly disappointing but then ceo lance fritz explained there were a lot of one-time issues. without them, the quarter would have been fantastic. uh-uh. didn't matter at all why? because the stock dropped six points immediately and continues to fall which convinced people hey, union pacific must be in bad shape but the sellers were dead wrong and since then the stock has come roaring back at an all time high today you had to use the weakness to do buying and run from the -- you didn't run from the fire you went into it because it wasn't a fire at all. this is a george michael market. you got to have faith. i have fifth in you and lance fritz because of his bankable track record but know his record i have faith in daniel for spotify because time and again he's proven the doubters wrong including those people in

a shanghai film company is being downgraded by morgan stanley as we see a struggle coming in the theater market. they are saying the chinese film market will remain in recovery mode in 2021 amid amid -- amid constraint content and holiday demand. rishaad: coming up, credit suisse's summit facing the fire from a tough crowd. his own bankers. the details from the late night conference over the archegos debacle, ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> almost 27% of the group's revenue. this group is counting on the growth. >> we see corporates committing to net zero. pretty much across the board there is an enthusiasm for putting capital to work to get us to a better future. >> we have obviously strong positions in singapore and hong kong, our two main hubs. rishaad: now let's get to the latest on the archegos aftermath. bloomberg learning the ceo is facing tough questions from his own staff and investors about loss tied to a big implosion. there was a lot of anger, a lot of venting during this year's conference with dozens of his managing directors. su: absolutely. bloomberg has learned the globa

. >> i'm stanley tucci. i'm fascinated by my italian heritage. so i'm traveling across italy to discover how the food in each of these 20 regions is as unique as the people and their past. the creations of famous tuscans are known the world over. >> mick anglo, i think if he were to walk around today, he would be able to walk around florence. it hasn't changed. >> but it's the hands of the ordinary people that have crafted the incredible food here. >> it's like christmas in your mouth. >> yeah. >> this is a place built on human ingenuity, mind-boggling riches, and an insane amount of bread. i really don't know how they eat this much bread. >> it's delicious, but it's so hot. ♪ all great love affairs start somewhere. [ speaking italian ] >> and for me, my love of italy started right here in florence when i was just 12 years old. >> that's delicious. you have to taste that. >> like this tartlet filled with rice pudding. i mean, come on. there is always something wonderful to discover in florence. the city is the capital of tuscany. 500 years ago,

michael kushma is with morgan stanley. somebody with perspective. over the weekend, i saw a massive we rationalization worry. what is the outcome when you see so many people worrying about our collective set of worries? michael: it is quite interesting. globally, the number of positive cases are rising, india has problems. turkey has issues. the united states has had the largest vaccine rollout outside a few small countries. that is one reason why the u.s. is doing better now. things are looking up and up, except for bonds, which are looking down. jonathan: equity markets is one of our focus is, but you work in fixed income. we have seen this yield a lower move, price up, you'll down. is it treatable? michael: we still think longer term the trend yield is higher, i'm not sure how much higher. we were talking to percent longer-term rate for 10 year treasuries. in the short-term, we had positive news on the economy. a surge of positivity in terms of the data in march, and the market got ahead of itself in terms of predicting when the fed would move. a

nice life jacket >> morgan stanley. the head winds of last year will be tail winds with the asset management business. >> good stuff. good to see everybody. the exchange starts now. >>> indeed it does, scott. thanks very much here is what's ahead for this hour used to be the reopening trade or stay at home trade. these days both are getting love we'll look at where you should put your money right now americans flock to the great out doors. looks like that trend isn't going anywhere we're calling it the fresh air trade. from yjurassic world, we'll spea with the producer behind all of these films about the success of

then they realize goldman and morgan stanley be having a problem. that was about 20 september so they literally made goldman into morgan stanley. bank holding company which allow them to borrow billions of dollars so they had all the liquiditythey needed . three days later, treasury we know this if you talk to the people at the federal phome loan back in seattle . and in san francisco, back in the is the they call the home loan said you liquidity. >> so what did you want to do or what you think they have to have kept washington mutual last. >> they were in your. there is no plan all your support for goldman sachs and morgan stanley, why couldn't they three days later that same liquidity and support to washington mutual and several days after that why not give it to wachovia. why not give the same liquidity to wachovia . >> why didn't they i guess? >> because paulson wanted to consolidate banking in wall street which is what he said in his march 15 rent for a new financial system. >> so are both of you arguing that basically washington mutual got cau

it joins morgan stanley in surprising investors over the extent of the impact from the u.s. hedge fund's implosion. we have manus' interview with ralph hamers coming up at 7:00 a.m. here on bloomberg tv. we want to get deeper into these ubs results with the dani burger. we have to start with archegos' hit. many were expecting it to be very minimal. why was it so much bigger? i am sure there will be a lot of questions on why it was not disclosed sooner. you have been digging through wealth management results. dan wealthi: -- dani: wealth management is key for ubs. it's a big driver of profit. the idea that loan growth among the really wealthy was really strong. it grew a lot. this contrasts what we are seeing from wall street banks. loan growth is just not there. it is happening amongst the richest. perhaps that's a good sign for the economy, may be a good sign for banking overall. i was talking to patrick winters about this, who said it's a very strategic from ubs to target loan growth from billionaires. it makes more money than money sitting in deposits with negative net in

what is the morgan stanley estimate on payrolls? tom: north of 42 million and a lot of others catching up. 900,000 is common. there is a real shift in the last number of days. emails say let's lose the jargon. to be clear to you and our international audience, labor day is a holiday at the end of august into september. a great tradition. the tradition of labor day. jonathan: i have lived here for five or six years and tom talks to me like i've just arrived off the boat. you called me a foreigner and now you're telling me what labor day is. i appreciate that. super helpful. lisa: i will say this is going to be the question. this is completely ignoring that and moving forward. the idea of the supply demand dynamics and can we ramp up supplies too much? should i keep going? jonathan: you can. lisa: you think it will take years before people get into the studio with us? jonathan: what do i know? lisa: wait to put it out there. jonathan: coming up, the man who know something about apple, the big bull on wall street. looking for a 185 on

that is what morgan stanley is getting at. switch of the boarded get to the bond market. dues, tends, 30's. -- twos, tens, 30's. the pride of the treasury that caused a problem -- your tenure -- your 10 year -- want to finish on euro-dollar. 1.21 handle friday. tuesday, 1.28. totally unchanged. totally unchanged. really muted going into the fed tomorrow. tom: stronger turkish lira this morning. our conversation of the day on economics. peter hooper joins us of deutsche bank. his deck on economics fully expected on wall street. i want to go to the heart and soul of your must-read. you go to the heart and soul of gdp ended unemployment rate that drives us down to a fully employed america. balance that for us right now. will that occur within market stability and national stability? peter: that could be a tall order. there is a lot of driving growth at this point. we have the normalization of demand out of covid. people getting vaccinated. we have tremendous fiscal support. behind us and ahead of us, we probably have half a percentage point on gdp out of what is still to com

lisa shalett of morgan stanley wealth management, thank you very much, indeed. a bit of news out of jetblue. jetblue is saying it will soon announce its inaugural flight to london. we still don't actually know where they are going to land or take off from, which airport they are going to be picking. but maybe we will get that announcement soon. certainly the news of the eu's decision on transatlantic news yesterday, the "new york times" article we got, certainly seems to be accelerating the process here. alix: i feel like i am inching towards going to a pub. coming up, -- guy: i thought you said a pun. alix: we could do that, too. alix: coppers record run, we will break it down next. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg markets ." the copper run to $10,000, that is what we are watching in the commodity market. a quick check at this chart shows the ferocious rally recently. the yellow line is brent crude. it also held up particularly well after that low back in november. the blue line is lme copper, and the purple line is shanghai copper. you can see t

. >> i was going to say on that point, before moving on to privacy, morgan stanley tried to take stock of this in a surray and ended up raising pc forecast to 16.5 because of what they see as a tailwind to commercial pc demand on exactly what you're describing that is companies trying to figure out who's going to work where and re-inventing i.t. budgets as a result. making more spending, they think. >> the huge savings coming from companies reducing their office footprint. some of those will go into things like software and hardware, improve worker productivity as an investor i'm betting heavily they'll go into software improving employee communication and culture morale at companies. seen huge winners snap, slack and zoom around productivity, but another software sweep growing around helping coordination hardware, same thing clearly companies saying, if we're going to save $50 million with less office space surely turn around and spend $2,000, $3,000 per employee, knowledgeable employees helping them be more productive at home or in a hybrid environment that's for sure. >> spencer, i

we are morgan stanley. hey frank, our worker's comp insurance is expiring, should we just renew it? yeah, sure. hey there, small business owner. pie insurance here with some sweet advice to stop you from overpaying on worker's comp. try pie instead and save up to 30%. thirty percent? really? get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com. wow, that is easy. so, need another reminder? no, no no, i'm good. uh, yes please. oh. ho ho ho, yeah! need worker's comp insurance? get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com. i really hope that this vaccine can get me one step closer to him. to a huge wedding. to give high fives to our patients. to hug my students. with every vaccine, cvs is working to bring you one step closer to a better tomorrow. >>> welcome back to "techcheck." i'm jon fortt. a check on major indices touching new record highs today. s&p, dow and nasdaq up about a percent. dell popping high er sat the sam time spinning out vmware and a cash dividend for 81% stake of dell. dell shareholders getting 4.4 of vmware dell technology continuing to hold shares. might clear