tom: good question. come on, barry. [laughter] lisa: really, tom? barry: i think it would be great if you can implement it. there's just a lot of challenges with it. i think in the u.s., given the vaccine is really already knocking down the hospitalizations, i don't know how necessary it is going to be. when you are traveling between countries that maybe one or the other has still a lot of infection, i think it makes sense. tom: i've got to go to the pride of gainesville, texas. are you happy with the opening up of your texas? can you support the governor, or do you need to see a different strategy in your texas? barry: if you look at the facts, i know they got rid of the mask mandate, and last week their cases hadn't changed materially versus some other states. so there is something else going on. i'm from texas and i will always be proud of being from texas. jonathan: don't expect that to change. good to catch up. did we say frontier or front air ? tom: we say british airways. ryanair. frontier. jonathan: 90 minutes left. neil dutta, renaissance m

tom: maybe i should try crocs. jonathan: i would love that too, tom. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we just can't catch up after going through a depression-era bust with this health crisis to suddenly having a runaway bull market. >> this is all reopening, fiscal stimulus. how much does behavior change? we are all becoming behavioral scientists. >> are we heading into a period of peak data? peak data historically has been met with corrections. >> all eyes are on what constitutes substantial progress for now. >> it has a long record of controlling

tom: never. jonathan: i think apple is one of those big tech companies that needs to de-risk the supply chain a little bit because china is at the epicenter of it. i don't think that is part of the story this morning, but i think you will see more of this in the years to come. do you have to sacrifice some margin to de-risk the supply away from china little bit? that is something they've got to think about in the next couple of years, given the direction of travel at the moment. tom: much more on this through the week. we will give you. all of the perspective romaine bostock -- all of that perspective coming up. axa is the big insurance combine out of paris, and david page holds court there. they have written a brilliant, nuanced note on your biggest word, which is inflation. david page joins us this morning. why do you not fear a greater inflation? david: i think if you look at the pc, very little of it -- at the pce, very little of it is actually cyclical. as we look a little further along, you

tom: no hope right now. when we speak with richard clarida to, it is going to be about the reality of the boom economy. the coffee is good this morning. jonathan: i was with you. we are on the same page. tom: there's another exclusive. how where is that? -- how rare is that? i'm looking at levels, and they tell me boom economy. jonathan: that rotation flipped to the other way. i think that is interesting, too . is that just a pause from what we have seen in the last six months, or are we snapping back the other way? tom: i am going to wait until earnings and those expectations out. how brave are corporate officers going to be to get out to q3, q4? i think they will really say we don't know, and then you get an idea of margin sustainability, but critically, what is the revenue line doing in a boom economy? jonathan: jp morgan kicking things off next week with earnings. we get in inflation print, then the debate really picks up. on the equity market, a little bit of a lift on the s&p 500. futures had a sneak p

tom: what was that about? jonathan: retail sales a couple of hours away. tom: bank of america out a little bit early. we will get to it in a moment. retail sales is front and center and that 70% of our american economy and a boom economy. how much did retail sales boom? i will go to control group when we see those numbers. jonathan: big expectations. brian moynihan has something to say. consumers flush with cash. businesses flush with cash. that is the headline story in america. tom: go right back to asset size. the two banks together, jp morgan and bank of america are $6.5 trillion in assets. granted, there's a lot of noise but that is indicative of the amount of money, the amount of stuff that is out there for this american economy to drive forward. jonathan: city earnings in couple of hours. lisa, retail sales. lisa: that is paired with all of the cash on the sidelines, these cash deposit of counts. -- icons. people are spending it now. after the stimulus checks, a big pickup in credit

tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television across this nation, and in north carolina as well. this week, the fed. this week, the present. this week -- the president. this week, earnings out. jonathan: a press willie from apple, the amount of investment we will see in the country from apple, but the headline is taxes and the press release. apple pointing out they are the largest taxpayer in the united states. there's a big reason for that statement in that press release. tom: it is a precursor to what we will see from earnings. huge revenue gains and a dominance over other sectors of the market. an open question on a tumultuous week, with your reading over the weekend. what are you observing through this week? jonathan: the conversation has changed. at the start of the year we are talking about pure deficit spending. now we are talking about capital gains. it is a very different conversation, and when the emphasis shifts, the change of emphasis, you got to bad attention. there'

tom: dxy 91.94. right now on monday, as we look at sport -- the sport of economics is led by michael spence from stanford university. professor spence, thrilled to have you with us. we see a white house looking for wage lift and one of the great thinkings, including what we saw from jamie dimon's letter was the ability to get wage growth in america. how do you get wage growth given technology and how you get wage growth given the concentration of wages like amazon and others? prof. spence: it is a complicated challenge. there are a number of things that are important. the tax system that is affect income. second, you need to strengthen the institution that supports unions and change the bargaining power. that is especially part and when you have buying power. third, you have to deal with the skills challenge that we face. wages will reflect the value of various labor in the marketplace regardless of these changes and bargaining power. we know that as our economy transforms digitally, we need a new se

tom: very good, jon. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television worldwide, to the very un-retired-mark carne -- the veryun-retired mark carney -- the very un-retired mark carney of canada, out of the bank of england and now the u.n. with his work on many areas. we now have xi meeting with biden over zoom or whatever, and they are going to talk climate. what kind of agreement can we get from biden/xi on climate? mark: thanks for having me on. we have 40 world leaders coming to this summit that the president has called for the next few days. we are going to see some big announcements from some of the g7 economies. that's the first point. the second, it is encouraging that president xi is part of this summit. it is also encouraging that the private sector is leading the way. part of what is coming out of this is a big announcement from the core of the financial sector. tom: you were born in the north-northwest of the northwest territories. i am going to suggest none of our authorities

tom: absolutely. george osborne emails in and suggests the collection of decorative prints and velvet embroideries offers a modern take on the quintessential english country house. nothing says 10 downing street like osborne and little. jonathan: prime minister's questions over and westminster, london at the moment, i'm getting reports that he appears a little bit rattled over all of this. lisa: i'm sure this is not the narrative he really wants right now. he's got to drag this economy out of a really bad recession. he wants to celebrate the vaccination efforts, and instead he is talking about the curtains. jonathan: the curtains and the flat, and unfortunately, so already come on a day where the president addresses congress a little later. [laughter] the federal reserve chairman delivers a news conference and we get earnings from one of the most important listed companies on the planet, apple. lisa: but the flat. jonathan: we will talk more on that a little bit later. tom: remember the color code? jo

jonathan: is there anyone left, tom? tom: i'm asking you. [laughter] jonathan: the miscalculation of some of the leaders of global flood all has been -- global suitable has been astounding. tom: what is the embarrassment to the italian elite here? jonathan: i think it is an embarrassment to everyone involved. it is embarrassing for everybody involved, and it is not a lack of understanding of the game of football. i've had more of that narrative come out of english football, that somehow the force owners don't understand. the owners, can you get any more italian than the -- family? this is about losing money, and these big clubs want to consolidate their power to try to make more money. they've made a serious miss calculation. six english teams pulled out, one after another. what is interesting now, the ft reporting that these are binding contracts that will take money to exit. one key point, the ft also reports that that money and that exit fee was conditional on the league starting. the league didn't start. so i have no idea what the legal

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. lisa abramowicz off today. you and i with the vice chair of the federal reserve in moments. these markets signal a boom economy. jonathan: they have been comfortable with high yields, consistent the briar -- the brighter outlook. inflation in america, tuesday the cpi print, we will start to see that build. is it just a head fake? is it transitory? how will we know? tom: we go up 900,000 jobs, and then you look at james dimon's letter, and it folds into 6%, 7%, a percent or more gdp. you wonder if this is original federal reserve odyssey for the rest of the year. jonathan: it is, but something has changed. we have gone from a forecast based federal reserve to an outcome based federal reserve, and that is a switch. only just now in the last couple of months has that really started to resonate with people, just how much has changed at the federal reserve under chair powell and vice chair clarida. tom: that is my first question to the vi

lisa: how are you doing, tom? tom: i'm doing great. the great jocasta lyons -- the great jocasta leone. kevin cirilli joining us now, our chief washington correspondent. he knows phillies 3-0, red sox 0-3. how do they get the infrastructure bill to a philadelphia phillies-like bang up job? kevin: good morning, tom. appreciate that introduction. what an amazing intro. kidding aside, it is going to be a tough haul for democrats. they are going to be targeting mayors, targeting governors in red states to try to get the roads in the bridges portion of this stimulus bill. beyond that, candidly it is a nonstarter to have tax hikes and whatnot, and republicans aren't going to go for that. tom: do they have the power to ram it through? kevin: no. they can do a piecemeal approach that would be targeted, and i think they will get some bipartisan support on this. there are areas of this that i think ultimately will be tacked onto defense reauthorization bills. others will be tacked onto some legislative vehicles pertaining to foreign policy. the

tom: dr. walensky, the center for disease and control prevention director putting out a very responsible message over the last couple of days. as he spoke with hans vestberg -- as we spoke with hans vestberg and lisa sherman, we look at the medicine of this pandemic. dr. adalja has been such a good friend of the show. i look at where we are as brazil is failing and maybe india is failing as well. should america be worry about the transfer of their pandemic over to us? dr. adalja: if the pandemic is raging in one part of the globe, other parts have to take notice. we will do well in the united states with our rollout and put the pandemic behind us, but it will be going on in other countries and that will be disruptive because it will have restrictions on travel, trade and the goal is to get this pandemic behind for the whole world. we have to take issue with what is going on in brazil and india and trying to make sure that they can get access to vaccine because that is the solution. it is going

tom: romaine would go to both. jonathan: we will get to romaine in a second. 10 year, three year a little bit later today. your yield right now on 30's unchanged. i would like to think r omaine would begin the pub with me, and not in the carlisle. i think he's that kind of guy. romaine: don't make me choose between you two. lisa: well done. [laughter] romaine: a big week for markets. you have a earnings that you just alluded to. anchor earnings, economic work -- bank earnings, economic reports. microsoft said to be preparing a deal for nuance. people might remember this company had that dragon voice recognition software where you can speak into your graph on -- your microphone and it would allow you to dictate. that company has since really gone a lot deeper into ai and voice recognition. microsoft apparently wants this as part of a broader health network it is trying to build. this would be a $16 billion deal. neither company has confirmed this is in the works, but bloomberg reporting that it could be announced la

tom showed it on his phone. you can trade in and out so easily. tom: let me try. mike: there you go. i look at it every day. lisa: i am so sorry. just keep going. he will be looking at coinbase for the rest of the show. tom: i want to catch up with matt miller. lisa: it is interesting when you do your taxes they say how many traits and digital currencies, it is new categorization some of your state and federal taxes there is a question going forward about regulation, about being able to pay your taxes in bitcoin. how is coinbase getting ahead of that as they are one of the dominant platforms for the crypto asset? mike: the question i like to ask when i hear that question is can you pay your taxes in gold? no. you monetize it and put it in dollars. dollars are the best vehicle on the planet for transactions. we are seeing the digitization of money. cryptocurrencies, all of them are speculative assets but the taxes are profits. that is a good problem, having to pay taxes on profits. a good thing to remember is what happened in this space. the most widely traded cryp

tom: thank you so much. the most important letter of an annual report and let me make clear, annual report letters, was the late robert dash of m and t bank in buffalo new york. everybody in the financial world read every year every word that he said. james dimon has extended the purview to something new and original. it is a 66 page letter released moments ago by his jp morgan and it is extraordinary. it was essentially a brief that could be made for secretary yellen and most fellow shareholders, a brief and the key to this pandemic for his jp morgan shareholders. i want to bring up one board. i want to bring up one board here which just touches upon the emotion that we see here and it's very simply we will do the curiosity later, he talks about -- do we have that board up. let's get that up right now. the board is simple. it's about how you manage in a pandemic and how you move on from a pandemic. the problem with the american public's impression of shareholder value is too many people interpret short-term

tom: let's talk about this. jon and i feel strongly about not gaming people when they are wrong or right because market economics are brutal. it is even more brutal now. lewis alexander joins us with nomura. someone who delves micro with macro like no one on the street. what does this retail boom due to your guesstimate on the duration of a boom economy? lewis: one month data does not tell you a lot about that. i would very much agree with ira's point. an important factor is the duration of the fiscal stimulus. i would point out on the 1.9 trillion jobs plan that was just past, ceos estimate they will spend 1.2 trillion of that before september. that is extremely frontloaded. this problem, we have this surge now, but how long it will last is very important. we have the peak in growth on the cycle for us. i think that is going to be increasingly the discussion we will have. lisa: how much are you looking at supply chain constraints. you know people -- that is the aggravated number. how much can people buy at a ti

tom: thank you so much. terry haines of pangaea with us today as we drive forward the discussion. i am pleased to inform you, i'm told, the infrastructure discussion will last well into 2028 or something. [laughter] lisa: well beyond that. we've been having it for more than 10 years. tom: i don't mean to make light of it, but it has been emergency legislation. we are getting addicted to three months, four months, let's go. we don't have that here. this is like, nine months, let's go. lisa: but we are still talking trillions of dollars. we are getting used to that. how about those trillions you would like to see to get the red sox a winning streak? tom: they really need that. now futures up to 28. what is your market observation this morning? lisa: the idea of a blowout jobs report being fuel, giving fuel to this optimism we are getting to the end of the pandemic, at least in the united states, and the divergence with the rest of the world reigning supreme. tom: we will see. futures up 22. the vix, 17.73. it

tom: will u.s. banks be allowed to participate in russian debt transactions at the initial offering of them, or down the road? jonathan: there will be suspicion at this point. the answer to that could be no, but we need to find out from the administration officially, a little bit later perhaps today. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities are up nicely, up 0.4%. retail sales in america 15 minutes away -- in america 15 minutes away -- in america 50 minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in a phone call with vladimir putin, president biden warned he would defend u.s. interests. the next move could come as early as today. the biden adminstration is expected to impose sanctions on russia for alleged misconduct, including efforts to disrupt. . the u.s. presence will election a number of russian -- to disrupt the u.s. presidential election. a number of russian entities and indivi

tom: this is true. lisa: tom is like, the first true thing you said. [laughter] tom: i was out mowing the lawn the other day. lisa: and central park? tom: yeah. [laughter] the mayor gave me 1/3 of an acre . jonathan: the rental market is picking up, too. coming up, henrietta treyz, veda partners director of economic policy. tom: have you and lisa made up? jonathan: just getting into it a little bit, having a chat, talking about credit. futures, 4200. tom: i'm shocked. that is an exclusive. [laughter] jonathan: lisa is one of us. she says what she thinks. that's not passive-aggressive. you know? just say what you think. in new york, everyone gives you a hug. it's so good to see you. it's been so long. it's been so long for a reason. [laughter] lisa: oh my god. jonathan: don't you experience that, guys? it's been so long. from new york, this is bloomberg. tom: have a beverage. it's transitory. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is betting he can sell the american public on sweeping change. in a speech before congress, the

tom: thank you, peter. thanks, leah. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2021] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government. >> broadband is a force for empowerment. that's why trevor has invested billions building infrastructure, updating technology, and powering opportunity in communities big and small. charter is connecting us. >> charter communications supports c-span as a public service. along with these other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> white house chief of staff ron klain spoke about president biden's agenda with politico playbook chief washington correspondent ryan lizza. this conversation is 20 minutes.

would love your take on this, tom. barclays was the lead underwriter on a deal to build two prisons in alabama. after pressure from advocacy groups, they have pulled out of that deal. tom: there is a clear understanding -- and we are not experts on this. experts say there is a desperate need to improve the prisons across any number of states, including alabama. the question is how you go about it. through a public direct advocacy or a private company. that seems to be the point. what is really going on, we have seen over the last number of weeks, a new social issue for investors. jonathan: the approach has to change, you have no choice. lisa: it's interesting to see the bifurcation between a number of different politicians who are perhaps on the sidelines on issues and corporate executives taking a stand, turning on its head the common theme of the way things work. i have to say, the political activism of c suite executives since the pandemic has only been escalating. jonathan: it has to be the bottom line. if you were

tom: sure. jonathan: got to stay cut for summer, tom. tom: that's our new logo -- that's their new logo. domino's, stay cut for summer. jonathan: that's going to work out, isn't it? later, pierre ferragu from new street research on a chip shortage that has hit ford, apple, and now caterpillar warning about it. tom: maybe if domino's splits they can join the dow. [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is proclaiming that america has turned the corner on the pandemic and is on the move again. he promised tax hikes on the wealthy to pay for ambitious plans to spend trillions on infrastructure, health care, and other priorities. president ayden also called on congress pass tricked her president biden also called on congress -- president biden also called on congress to pass strict gun measures. the president pushed for a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. the carlyle group brought in more money from investors that posted gains across its business in the fir

tom: i don't care. jonathan: explict -- tom: explained to me why we have a $3000 stocks -- stock price. this is part of the american fabric. they are to bring it down to a dow equivalency so they can join the index that matters. jonathan: it's 2021 you don't have to be in the dow. there is such thing as fractional share ownership. do you want to be -- do you need a stock split in 2021? tom: amazon should be in the dow. jonathan: i'm not a bite back. too much energy for later on today. i'm just knocking to do it. tom: jerome powell quotes the dow. jonathan: when they look at financial conditions they look at the dow? tom: no they do not. this goes back to my mother. she used to sit there with a martini in her hands screaming about the dow. jonathan: jonathan: coming up, julian emanuel l. -- julian emanuel. the family ate plan down in d.c.. no interest in arguing about the dow this morning. here we go, s&p 500, futures up three. tom: jonathan ferro faces formal probe over apartment refurbishment. jonathan

tom: it is the way we are up, but it is the way we have been at the last couple of days. there has been a seismic shift to the nasdaq leadership. the key for using the bloomberg terminal every afternoon to some that up. if you look at the ratios, it is simple. we are back to mastec leadership. jonathan: nasdaq looking good right now. apple up almost 10% from the lows of a month ago. i just wonder, how connected that is to the stability we have seen in the treasury market. your 10 year in and around 65. tom: underreported, and gabriella santos will address this, the u.s. getting the imf outlook. china with an 8% statistic. is it a boom economy in china? maybe not, but it is a very good economy and that is where you get the tech thing going. jonathan: looking forward to that conversation. also talking about the politics of the u.s.-china relationship and the lack of the ability to unite the parties in d.c. with china a focal point around the infrastructure plan. lisa: the question is, how mu

tom: mr. biden providing decade-long multiple president leadership two-state -- to state the obvious of 1915. what does president biden and the secretary of state signal with this decision? richard: this administration has placed human rights high on the agenda. it is a real sign just how far relations with turkey have deteriorated. over decades, we were reluctant to take this step. i was involved in these conversations at the state department. this relationship is not that valuable. there is not a lot of downside. lisa: richard, to some up -- sum up, which hotspot should be we be paying attention to right now? it seems to have faded a bit. is that wrong or has the focus moved onward? richard: if you asked me that last week, i would have said something with russia, ukraine. i think china and the u.s. is strategically the biggest hotspot. there are many other places that can be problematic. the single biggest fault line is the united states and china and possibly over taiwan. can these two coun

tom: mike was difficult. jonathan: i always like the bowls when you call them up and say, what do you think? jonathan: does lionel messi want a super league? these stars --do they want a super league? jonathan: i'm not trying to get into the business of telling you what i think people are thinking. what is interesting, the big players have not come out to make any big statement on this yet. that could be interesting if the likes of fifa and uefa standby and don't let them play in international football. there is a certain amount of pride, they want to play for their countries. i wonder what that would mean if they go ahead with this breakaway league and they are not allowed to participate in these leaks and represent their country. tom: it is not fair but i will go there anywhere. do you think that this will get solved quickly? jonathan: no idea, we've been talking about this for 20 years. jp morgan is apparently the bank underwriting this effort. tom: are they pushing it or just underwriting it? jonathan: yo

alongside tom keene li

tom: it is fascinating. we don't have time for this, but i am fascinated how jp morgan comes out of this debacle. jonathan: many people are. tom: amazing. jonathan: just for you, so you can have another drink -- lisa: just drink anyway. jonathan: transitory. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden will pledge to cut u.s. greenhouse omissions in half by 2030. that nearly doubles a commitment made under former president obama that was later scrapped by former president trump. president biden will convene 41 leaders in a virtual climate summit that begins today. more fallout from credit suisse. the swiss bank expects a $654 million second-quarter hit. a swiss regulator has asked credit suisse to add more than $2 billion of capital. >> we are all responsible for what happened. it is not our job -- now our job to take credit suisse to the next level. we have a lot of good elements in his first quarter we can build on. together with the board of directors, we are doing this investigation and we will build o

jon: tom keene, earnings. tom: absolutely. we end the week with a blowout. joe feldman reaffirms 4000 on amazon. earnings season is starting with a bang, within a boom economy. jon: let's talk about that and bring in the global head of currency strategy. dollar delayed and not derailed, why? >> first of all, thank you for having me. the drivers that powered the dollar in q1 [indiscernible] you mentioned the tax hikes. we have two fiscal packages in the pipeline. one is funded by corporate tax hikes and one by personal tax hikes. huge stimulus coming down the pipeline greater than any other prospect on january 1. the virus numbers, the vaccination numbers continue to improve. when we are looking at 7% a percent growth in the u.s. and the next few quarters, it is hard to get beyond the headline numbers. aged outshines the rest -- it outshines the rest of the world. i continue to think the dollar remains. tom: give me an update on emerging markets. we have been deficient in our e.m. coverage. you are expert with this with your heritage, and miramar, and with th

can i start again, tom? tom: you're a little rattled. it is hard to focus given the football in europe. you've been off your game for three days. jonathan: i appreciate that. i don't know if that is an insult or support. yields up on the 10 year to 1.5 680% -- on the 10 year to 1.5680%. what happens to yield? will it be consistent with the outlook, or will the ecb stop that move higher? tom: i thought you were talking about the super league in germany. germany largely avoided that, right? jonathan: they did. i'm not talking about that. i'm talking about bunds. tom: i lost my head. jonathan: clearly. deutsche bank talking about the quarter for europe. this is what goldman was talking about. rate differentials in europe's favor. flows in europe's favor. the euro-dollar, a move towards $1.25 perhaps. you can hear the bulls, starting to sound a little bit louder around a stronger euro. tom: i agree, but when did they start arguing about $1.25 euro is being damaging to the business might of europe? jonathan: that's the issue. at what point do

tom: he got slammed. jonathan: they played elevator music over the top of him and chairman powell did not respond. tom: that is accurate. what is fascinating as everybody is calling for higher inflation. jonathan: you see the research and you hear it on the corporate calls as well. this earnings season, microsoft later, apple tomorrow, amazon after that. the federal reserve with the decision. captivating coverage on tv and radio. tom keene and caroline hyde and scarlet fu making an appearance. looking forward to the coverage tomorrow afternoon. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. president biden will propose a large-scale tax increase tomorrow and also call for giving millions more to the irs to make sure the rich people and large corporations pay all they owe. bloomberg has learned the proposal will raise the top tax rate to 39.6% for those making at least $400,000. that is a key element in the american famil

i would take a guinness right now, tom. tom: ferro needs a guinness. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. the story of the month is the nasdaq comeback. the story of the session something a little bit different. nasdaq futures coming in about a quarter of 1%. the russell outperforming on a relative basis. we switch up the board, is the story of the month. the nasdaq with massive outperformance over the last month. this over the last 30 days. you will see the nasdaq outperformance, up by 5.8%. tom: nice board. nice board. jonathan: you take it to the march 8 low, we ripped about 100 percentage points. here's the story for me. switch up the board again. 2's, 10's, and 30's. we rallied and sold off in the bond market on anticipation of better economic data. as we start to realize that data, we start to stall a little bit. it is interesting just to see what is happening right now. 10 year yields up by the five basis points. on the bottom of the average of the last 30 days or so on the 10 year. on the

tom: that's right. phil: it is the drop in 10 year treasury rates. all we heard in february and march was this is going to be inflationary. what the bond market is telling you right now is not so fast. the fed has the upper hand, and it is just another indication for us to be overweight stocks versus bonds because 10 year rates are going nowhere right now, even with all of this incredible data we have seen. jonathan: do like that, tom? that is the pr school over at j.p. morgan. they spend five seconds on it and go somewhere else. phil: but jon, that is the bigger story. that at the signal through all of this noise right now. everyone who is worried about inflationary conditions tightening, that is just not showing up. tom: the general counsel is an easier, saying it is part of a carefully balanced portfolio. you know i love your research note where you say this is not a year of beta. it is not a year of summary indexes. it is active management, and that means securities selection. which ones do i want t

tom: i thought timing yesterday was really something looking at the granular data. part of that is claims this morning and into this jobs report. can you imagine the underemployment rate coming down? we will talk about that. jonathan: some things we need to work on. you know what outperformed the s&p 500? the stoxx 600. the european equity markets. tom: you were great on this yesterday. europe has got a huge bottom to come off of. you wonder in q2 if that is a surprise. where is your euro-dollar right now? that is a surprise for q1. lisa: the idea here of this diverging global fate. the irony that the dax outperforms u.s. stocks at a time when europe is outperforming. one of the biggest take backs of the first quarter, one of the biggest takeaways was the u.s. exceptionalism. that was the dominant theme. that is what was the presiding trade. question is, will it continue given the ongoing consensus for a hotter, but shorter cycle? jonathan: let me get to the price action. i'm going to leav

tom: well taken. but over the weekend, i believe i saw the difference is like five seats in the house. that is nothing. jonathan: skinny margins looking to do really big things. ultimately, what is important is how this plays out in d.c. how does the electorate feel about it? tom: david westin is not as cynical as we are. jonathan: looking for to the coverage later. tom, you are so fired up this week. very agitated about capital gains. tom: i am. [laughter] (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving fl

possibly, tom. tom: right now on streaming, on netflix, paul sweeney is the founder of bloomberg intelligence. i work with him every day on bloomberg radio. really quite good at the measurement of securities analysis, and particularly on the nexus of content is king and our distribution as well. what do you expect from netflix? paul: i expect pretty good numbers. this is going to be a tough quarter for them with really tough comparisons, when you think about where we were a year ago at the beginning of the lockdown. that is actually good news for netflix because people were stuck at home, all binge watching anything we could get our hands on. they had a huge growth in subscribers the first and second quarters of last year. but the long-term story remains very much intact, which is for better or worse, we are all viewing more and more content via streaming sources. tom: in oscar season, are we counting the beans, or do we have the ability to count the beans? i look at "mank," and ethics product, a bl

tom: you have to. kevin: when he comes out and he talks that he is against corporate tax rates and says the corporate tax rate increase that president biden is proposing, he is picking a fight with the left flank of his party, and that is a remarkable is a remarkable, re divide that has emerged. lisa: how this year the amazon letter yesterday when he said he supported higher taxation to pay for the infrastructure bill? kevin: there have been several ceos, billionaires, who said they wouldn't mind paying additional money in tax allocations. it is a -- senator manchin is not talking about how much taxes he will pay, he is talking about how much it would mean for companies as a result of this, right, wrong, or indifferent, to move offshore or relocate. lisa: how is joe biden going to bridge the gap today in his 1:45 speech on infrastructure? kevin: he has to sell it. he has to sell it to the centrist of his party. if senator joe manchin, and there is some speculation that manchin could get on board with a

tom: thank you so much. we will have much more on this, particularly bloomberg technology this evening. nuance technology picked up by microsoft. huge equity gains and also huge cash on the balance sheet. this is a conversation we wanted to have for days. with the passing of robert mondale. you've heard me say that the lineage of our international economics goes back through's chicago of long ago and jacob frenkel. we are thrilled he could join us this morning. he is the group of 30 chairman of the board of trustees. jacob, we had a wonderful friday with ken rogoff, richard clarida, and angus deaton talking about the 20th century are national economic spirit when you were writing at chicago , what did you learn at columbia from mundell? jacob: to begin with, when i came to chicago, 1968, mondale was a superstar. we were students together -- mundell was a superstar. we were all hypnotized by the way he changed completely the way in which the economic profession looked at the economy. at that point the world w

tom: are you calling for that? brian: no, we think 2% is a reasonable level, and i think a benign level for other markets. reddit markets have been completely unbothered by the backup and that in year unbothered -- unbothered by the backup in that. i think it is part of the volatility we saw on the first quarter. if the fed changes communication around the dots and the eventual lift off and the pace of rate hikes, my sense is they are not going to do that. they are much more interested in seeing inflation above 2% and seeing unemployment perhaps below 3%, sometimes for the next couple of years. which means the runaway -- which means the runway for most of the assets is long. lisa: investors like the u.s. over the rest of the world. do you disagree with that? do you prioritize europe and the emerging markets based on hope versus reality? there's more potential for upside surprise. brian: the valuation gap continues to attract us somewhat to those non-us parts of the market. i think mainly, emerging markets at this p

tom: this is really critical. this is a critical distinction, and this is why we love sam's that is ellie -- love sam fazeli. you are making the distinction that a single event of a blood clot is an odd occurrence given a vaccine? sam: yes because this is not any old blood clot. this is a blood clot that also involves another disorder. they are very rarely seen together, or perhaps never. why can also tell you is don't forget that the 7 million doses haven't probably been all followed up for four to 10 days or so, so there's probably going to be more of these rare events. therefore, the number goes higher than one per million. jonathan: from what you have heard so far, how similar is this news to what we heard from astrazeneca across europe and the last month as well? sam: astrazeneca's numbers are much higher, dealing with one and 100,000. but as i set -- one in 100,000. but as i said, we have different equations to solve here. america has lots of pfizer, lots of butter in a doses -- lots of moderna doses that ha

tom: that is true. i happen to be steve when they unloaded that dog and it stayed a dog and is a dog. just the back of the envelope. another current 4.9 billion -- what do you want to call it a loss? write down whatever from verizon. this has been a trained wax from day one -- rec from day one and i do not think we have the final accounting. jonathon: they are not for sale, they are exploring a sale. tom: maybe they will do the sale in bitcoin. jonathon: at least, this has not worked out. lisa: it has been a tricky combination and there is a question about big cable companies and big tech companies becoming involved in the media space. it has not worked so well. this is an ongoing theme. tom: major shout out to tim on strong who got in -- armstrong when it was happy and got out at the top. lisa: objectors. tom: we just heard from the cdc, cautiously optimistic. we are always optimistic to speak to jennifer. good morning. i want to know the distinction that you are looking at into the weekend. we have th

tom: dr. bernstein, not a medical doctor, and economist assisting president biden's council of economic advisors. right now a joy. peter hotez joins us, dean of national school of tropical measured -- tropical medicine. he has been such a support unclear thinking through this pandemic. peter, somewhere buried in your distinguished cv is hematology. it is ignored by so many in virology, in bacteriology. it is the effect of all of this on our blood. give us a synopsis of the hematology of blood clots to these vaccines. dr. hotez: we do not know the full story yet, but there is an emerging story coming out in papers like the new england journal of medicine and others and it has to do with the fact that the two major adenovirus-based vaccines, that is astrazeneca and johnson & johnson, not the mrna vaccines, not the other technologies, the two major adenovirus vaccines seem to be inducing an immune response in some mechanism we do not fully understand that is activating an antibody response to pla

tom: anything to do with a cash. jon: jp morgan is very much in focused, one of the biggest overweight's right now. he saw that out of bank of america, too. lisa: the biggest overweight since back in may of 2018. if you take a look at the markets, they have been sleepy. we have been joking about that, but trading volumes have been down dramatically. it is the dealmakers. that will be driving earnings. jon: i will talk about that, the stalling out in some of the cyclical trades. copper stalling out, the crew traded, stalling out. small caps trade, stalling out, treasury yields moves, stalling out. we have just seen those moves lose a little steam in the last several months. tom: but what about the equity market? it is all focused on the equity market. jon: in the s&p, we are doing ok, artery? lisa: to be clear to our audience, we all had different launch pads, the data that lisa looks at or john looks at, and when i look at. what i see is one quarter blinking red and green, and the rest is asleep. jon: cpi is coming u

tom: what color imac are you going to get? lisa: minor going to -- tom: continue please. jonathan: lisa, thank you. netflix down by around 8% in the premarket. pull forward is the theme. the acceleration through last year. pull forward some of the demand this year. competition is something there pushing back. competition is going to be a thing this year that's for sure. tom: to our wonderful guests you are going to bring in, these are such unusual times and you see that in the very beginning. jonathan: let's set the stage briefly. the commodity market story topped out late february early march. treasury yields topped out at the end of march. the cyclical trade has stalled a little bit. city global head of fx analysis. the conversation and debate is pretty simple. had we -- have we just paused or are we set to reverse? >> great to be back on the show. our view is we are pausing and that we are in this exhaustion phase were a number of more challenging trends have exhausted just as much as may be the stabilizing force as we've seen over the last two weeks or so with rates p

tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. i want to digress here and go to housing. absolutely stunning, the haves frenzy and real estate. it seems to be everywhere that if you have got money, you are buying a house. lisa: there was a story in the journal yesterday about how big institutions are increasingly investing in real estate. how does a young couple afford a home if they are competing -- if there competing buyers a private equity firm or some sort of foundation? this is a real issue especially as people contemplate how far this housing boom can potentially go. tom: and what is fascinating to me is this idea of an asset bubble. the idea of all that money out there. i don't want to oversell this, but i am sorry, we are observing 2006 movement. lisa: although it is not driven by the same kind of leverage. there is leverage, to be clear, and plenty of it, but it is driven by ultra low rate, which raises the question, how can the modern world normalized with the debt load we have? more people are thi

tom: oh, with a bowtie today for radio. romaine: i'm wearing the tom keene memorial bowtie. lisa: memorial? [laughter] romaine: we are getting american express. they did miss on revenues, though they did beat on the bottom line. that was largely because of a pull forward of some of those loss reserves they set aside previously, about $1 billion there. the story today really about the chip sector. we get to intel earnings. those shares moving lower in the premarket by about 2%. it is really all about that datacenter business. year-over-year revenue dropped about 20%. it is like a castle out there really getting but parted on all sides. you've got taiwan semi, nvidia, amd all chipping away at intel's business. they continue to lose share. give them a little bit of time to try to turn the ship around. tom: what else do you have? romaine: skyworks solutions, huge apple supplier. about 70% of their revenue comes from apple. investors say they were too tied to apple, they needed to diversify. this gets them there, a lot of ai stuff that will go into cars, smart refrigerators. snap

tom: thank you. there is one banner i want to talk about, which is united parcel service not providing 2021 revenue and earnings guidance. that is a little bit of a surprise and maybe is a little bit of a tone of the american uncertainty on q3, q4. jonathan: just how good, that is where the uncertainty lies. thank you, tom. here is some news for you, president biden will require contractors to pay workers at least $16 an hour in an executive order to leverage purchasing power to boost working conditions for low earners. ahead of that executive order. this is the moment where we start to talk about unit costs, etc. bank of america played out some nice research. the number of inflation on earnings called year on year have tripled, the biggest jump going back to 2004 when they started tracking the data. raw materials, transportation, labor, major drivers of inflation. they already have raised prices to pass through. that has to be the number one issue in the coming quarter. tom: what is so important is

tom: mr. pagliuca of boston and the celtics and the disaster as seen why the fenway group and the rest. wall street week with stephen pagliuca, look for that coming up. this is really important. david rich was at mount sinai and his leadership was out fright in the pandemic with the sirens on the upper eastside with the agony of their staff getting through the last 14 months. now the celebration we are beginning to see. things are better -- things are "almost over." what is the almost overt measurement as we go into a wonderful spring weekend. can you call the pandemic ending soon? dr. reich: i am not that optimistic, but we are moving in a great direction. the peak we saw in the new york region has gradually come down. it is coming down at a much slower rate than what we see previously. what we are seeing in our health system is now there are between 200 and 250 patients. the number varies day by day. the peak was somewhat over 500 in january. it is a slow decline but we are learning to manag