jonathan: i knew that would wind you up. the commitment to growth is startling, 22% of the total s&p 500 and r&d and supported growth investment ratio of 64% for the typical stock. premium valuation. the handful of names that make up the bulk of the s&p 500 and it's the low rate components we start to question. that's what this conversation is about. does it test the fed resolve and does it undervalue the premium valuation. tom: we've been dying for inflation, every economist is begging we get above a 2% level. i get it. we may be wrong and may be a redux of the 1960's, but that has happened time after time as it worked out. to go back to the brilliant note which is not of the revenue frenzy. cash flow, a near quarter of a trillion dollars of investment by five tech leaders in 12 months. the key phrase there is not quarter of a trillion dollars, of the key phrases 12 months. jonathan: i love how fired up you are. i'm with you. too much attention paid to the equity market. not enough credit from amazon. that issue from amazon

jonathan: tom asked that last week. lisa: he ran away, by the way. jonathan: yes. lisa: we are pulling the transitory game with me coming back and he piecing out. jonathan: i am sure he is drinking somewhere. -- is inflation accelerating or growth decelerating later this year? >> i think it is a little bit of both. we do think the transitory word is overused. the right or days we do not know. it is noisy. growth will definitely decelerate. in the second quarter, it comes down. the better question is, when we get through the noise, when we get through this apply-demand imbalance, will the price stay sticky? no. jonathan: talk to you about your value base case with the incoming data we have seen. brian: the cpi print, and i know it is one print, so we will look through it a bit, but i've been in inflation markets for a long time, and that was the biggest surprise i've seen, the fact that the 10-year note did not really move. our base case is the 10-year note stays in this 6 to 8 range, which is boring. but we do not think the fed will overreact. maybe in jackson hole

so you jonathan: jonathan: get a week -- jonathan: so you get a week's vacation, it translates into a day's bullishness. lisa: pretty much. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. bloomberg. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. ♪ jonathan: 7:30 in new york city. good morning to you. bitcoin, session lowe's. we are

if tom jonathan: jonathan: was here this morning -- will be having. jonathan: if tom was here this morning, he would be pushing back against the word synergies because it often means job cuts. lisa: where would they be cutting jobs? because there isn't that much overlap, theoretically. jonathan: here's some other headlines elsewhere. from hong kong, hong kong and singapore have been trying to put together some kind of travel bubble for a long time now. hong kong's requires -- hong kong to require quarantine for singapore arrivals, classifying singapore as a high risk destination. it is worth pointing out and reemphasizing, as you have done through the whole pandemic, the tolerance levels of places like singapore and hong kong are markedly different than places like young -- like london, new york, the u.k., and the united states. lisa: how are you going to reopen internationally at a time when covid-19 is being treated increasingly like the common cold or the flu, and it is not going anywhere? what will it take to move beyond that? frankly, it is hard

jonathan: i love dogs. tom: unreal. jonathan: i love dogs. babies come at the moment, i'm not sure about. let's move on. [laughter] the s&p down by 46. in the bond market, unchanged. euro-dollar $1.2071. wti crude coming into .5%. tom: -- coming in 2.5%. tom: going back to the yield, 1.74% is what we need. jonathan: that was the high at the end of march. . it's quite a turnaround, isn't it? tom: bring in mr. co-talk -- mr. kotok. jonathan: david kotak joins us now, cumberland advisors cio. have you adjusted your strategy based on the data we have seen? david: we did. we've raised some cash. we are redeploying that cash. we think this selloff creates an entry opportunity, and we are doing it. that's number one. number two, you have a great interview with mohamed, and then he followed it with the best advice on the vaccine, and that is get, and 1/3 of the world is not doing so, so there is no herd immunity. that means the health care sector, our weight in the health care sector is 28% of portfolios deployed broadly against a 13% market weight b

jonathan: antony blinken. good morning stub i am jonathan ferro. -- good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. after the treasury market just shrugged in a subtle involution of the language in vice chair clarida, talking about tapering maybe. a load of hedges around that. still come to see yields lower on the day, i think was quite remarkable. tom: one of the great services we have at "surveillance" is to translate the king's english. what in god sanders crackers mean? jonathan: replace crackers with nuts. tom:. crackers. jonathan: dominic cummings in hearing today saying it is crackers --nuts went --wrong. not surprising this is the tone, the comments the prime minister is making. tom: crackers moving from loud braggart to the northern realm over to nuts. we digressed to the crackers of washington. emily wilkins joins us in washington. i want to get away from the news flow today to a leading story as they look at where this federal reserve is heading. it is may. we get to the summer. we move on an year. it may be a new fan. how the

jonathan: yes, i'm very family arejonathan:. -- jonathan: yes, i am very familiar. did they tighten that up? tom: they tightened it up to one hour. [laughter] jonathan: are they giving you anything for this particular plug? do you get a bottle of wine from kby? tom: a bottle of champagne, that's what it is. we've got to do retail sales, i'm sorry. everyone is worn out from the data. jonathan: it's five minutes away , and then reaction from the federal reserve. loretta mester, the federal reserve bank of cleveland president, sitting down with michael mckee for a conversation just moments after we get retail sales in america. going into it, up 28 on the s&p. we advanced 0.7%. yields come in to basis points to 1.63 69%. the dollar is weaker going into this one. wti, $64.43. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can

jonathan: i have to run. i will catch up with krishna memani later and then subadra rajappa as well in about 15 minutes. tom: that dialogue will continue through the morning. if you're joining us, a shock in inflation. because of this report, we had eight or nine things to speak with jason furman about, always interesting, but we have to stay on price change. jason furman, let's do a history lesson of the shop. i went back to 1990. neil dutta talks about the biggest one-month gain since june of 2009. take us back to the 1960's and robert samuelson at the washington post has written about this, the time of walter haller. what did they do in the 1960's about the nation shock and should we use that as a template? jason: first of all, they did a lot of emphasizing on one-time factors and micro stories. this segment is doing this, that segment is doing that. they missed the bigger macro forces, what was going on with fiscal and monetary policy. the number one is look at the macro. do not try to explain away each o

jonathan: bob chapek, the disney ceo. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz will be back with us monday. on the s&p 500, we advanced 0.7%. in the bond market, yields lower to 1.6386%. euro-dollar, $1.2121. wti, $64.64, up 1.28%. we get to the walt disney company. we trade lower in the premarket, down a little more than 4% off the back of the streaming business. subscriptions coming in just a little bit lighter than expected. tom: we are thrilled to bring you craig moffett and igo nathanson, -- and michael nathanson, moffettnathanson. they are distinguished in what they do. michael nathanson, let's get to you first. how much did disney and mr. chapek miss baby grogu? [laughter] michael: they missed by about five to 6 million subs, and that really matters. unfortunately, that is what happened in stock trades the way it does. tom: it is a battle out there. craig, you have but doing this for years, particularly the cabling of it, the routing of it. what is the theme for you right now into the summer in the streaming wars? craig: as much as the str

jonathan: thank you. two-your nose come tomorrow from the treasury, five-year notes shortly after, a day later -- two-year notes come tomorrow. there seems to be some weakness, which we have seen again and again over the last several months. not sure why. lisa: not sure anyone totally understands why. it has to do with a bunch of issues, but it has been a key marker of just how much pushback there can be. vigilantes, something like that. jonathan: back in the bond market. our vigilantes making a comeback? tom: the iron ore vigilantes are out in force. jonathan: matt horn bok with us -- matthew hornbach with us now. morgan stanley's head of global microstrategy. good to catch up with you, sir. can you start every day with the same story in a becomes boring -- is there information in that as a market participant? >> thanks for having me. i have been speaking with bond market vigilantes since the start of my career in tokyo, japan. i think the same news story has been filtering through my feed since june of

jonathan: and demand is coming back. tom: well said. jonathan: thanks, tom. where is that coming from, well said? do you want me to validate your work? well said. lisa, you should be dr. phil. i don't know how you do it. [laughter] two year yields unchanged. i think we got to reflect on yesterday just a little bit more. a rate scare, but no movement in rates, really? i saw a nasdaq scare for a moment going into the comments from ticket terry yellen -- from secretary yellen. that is going to be the test. if you really think rates are going to go up, if there's a real concern about rates, if you want to see a sign of that, a credible sign of that in the market, don't go to the nasdaq. go to the front end of the curve in america. 0.1625%. that is where the prospect of higher yields will show up. that is where you will see it in the bond market, and that is where we did not see it yesterday. lisa, i can see the face you are pulling out of the corner of my eye. just saying. say what you want and we can move on. [laughter] lisa: if that is the case, is it about tap

jonathan: basically a retirement. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden stunned european allies and the drug making industry with his support for waiving patent protection for coronavirus vaccines, a reversal of long-standing u.s. policy that it's companies' intellect ual property is sacrosanct. but there are signs that the president is interested in a more modest compromise. germany has said it opposes a waiver. a warning from the fed. it says the rising appetite for risk is stretching valuations and creating vulnerabilities in the u.s. financial system. the central banks as prices could be vulnerable to significant declines if that appetite falls. fed governor lael brainard also cited the implosion of archegos capital and called for more hedge fund disclosures. british prime minister boris johnson has dealt a major blow to his chief political rival. johnson's ruling conservative party won a crushing victory in the palm entry dixit -- in the parliamentar

jonathan: jack, thank you. tom: mention house dinner, i do not understand -- jonathan: did not know the square-mile? from new york city, this is "bloomberg." ♪ ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. or visit and xfinity store to learn how our switch squad makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. we know how much you count on us... ...and that's why we're here 24/7... ...and on the road maintaining a fast and reliable network. we're always working to ensure the internet meets your needs... ...by making access easier for all... ...with comcast lift zones and our internet essentials program. we're invested in making our apps easy... ...t

jonathan: no. we have had almost an eight minute conversation on the market, and we have not talked about the fed! does the fed play into how you think about the equity market going into summer? eric: it does. your point that people like leo brainard, these are stories we will keep paying attention to because there seems to be modest cracks in the foundation that we are not even thinking about talking about rates. as we see conversations increase about inflationary pressure, we cannot bypass the fact that the fed may lose patience. tom: i want to go right to fear 101. this is the reality -- people feel they have not participated in this bull market. they do not own big tech. where do you place fresh capital now if you have missed out and you know you want to get on board but you're scared stiff? eric: two places -- one would be domestic mid-caps, that sit in that middle place between momentum small as well as large cap, which has done very well. for those who want to scale into pieces within the fi

with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up a third of 1% on the s&p 500. adp data in focus. can we start with secretary yellen? tom: i thought abramowitz would start yelling. this is a bunch of baloney. the secretary of treasury came out, i said something wrong, jerome got her on the phone and said clarify. she clarified. tom: there's no wrote -- jonathan: there's no reporting he got her on the phone. i saw nothing in rates. nothing whatsoever. it was all equities, it was all the nasdaq and we were already down quite a bit. tom: i am upset now. we've got to get serious. we have three days of jobs data here. lisa is fired up because -- because of the recovery. it is cinco de mayo. lisa: brilliant. jonathan: that was wonderful. should i save this? we go into this payrolls report and everybody is talking about how big the number will be paid how big does it need to be to recalibrate expectations? we 2 million plus april jobs to see the fed changes. goi

jonathan: i know. tom: 0.1429% is in itsy-bitsy move on the two-year, but that is a huge signal to jerome powell. jonathan: and chair powell is with you. why? you will like this. switch up the board. it is a chart, for those of you on radio. get back to 61.5. that's the goal. that doesn't get it done. there's more work to be done. tom: i thought there were some really good social economics over the weekend on women struggling to get back to the workforce. childcare is not the dominant issue, but childcare is a real issue to what we saw on friday. jonathan: it is clearly a factor in the participation rate. you saw that friday. right now, your five-year chart of the employment to population ratio, i will tweak that out for you if you can't see it. it reads, 59.7. doesn't this work beautifully, this relationship? it is just wonderful, isn't it? when is lisa back, next monday? tom: why are we hermetically sealed? jonathan: i have no idea. you are fully vaccinated, i am, too. i think they know if we are in

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. good to have you all back together in the same room, almost. a window separating us. certainly differentiated. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. is now adding pressure to both sides to end the conflict in gaza. president biden has shifted his approach. he told benjamin netanyahu he would support a cease-fire between israel and hamas. the president has not publicly back to an end of the fighting days. at least 222 people have been killed, most of them in gaza. hamas has fired rockets come israel has inspired air rates and artillery. the senate has voted to move ahead with the bill aimed at cutting china's rise in technology. it would jumpstart research and development with a cash infusion of more than $100 billion. the bill could be passed by the end of the month. the son of rudy giuliani is running for governor of new york. he tells the new york post he is confident he can win next year's republican priority and defeat andre

jonathan: secretary blinken. good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. agreed futures down 22. -- equity futures down 22. jobless claims this morning. we want to see a continued drop in claims. bond yields lower. foreign-exchange, meted on euro-dollar. stronger euro, euro-dollar. tom: a good litmus paper is the vix. midway between the 27 angst we saw a number of days ago and the nirvana under 20. that is sort of where we are at 23 level. what is the angst in washington? jeff is patrick joins us now. -- jack fitzpatrick joins us now. i am fascinated by the symbolism up 35 republicans on this commission on generally six. not so much about january 6, but the symbolism of 35 republicans crossing the aisle to join the democrats? or did they just join the democrats and not cross the aisle? what is the nuance there? jack: it is interesting it was a substantial number of house republicans who did end up joining the democrats in supporting this bill at a time when it's in leader mitch mcconnell said he is against this. this is going to go to the senate and now th

jonathan: 620,000 is the estimate. from that big downside surprise in the previous month at 266,000. lisa: the question i have is which data point is going to be the most relevant. a lot of data comes out, it beats, it misses, people shrug. however, we will get personal spending and personal income data. i am curious about that. i feel like that is where it matters, how much people are spending in real time. i wonder how much more weight that has than the jobs number. jonathan: how much savings come down, that's got to be the key variable for economists. lisa: they had this incredible cash glut in their savings accounts. tom, you'd keep -- tom, you keep talking about it. tom: you guys have touched upon, to me, the biggest issue out there. the quality, the behavioral makeup of all that cash that is out there. how much of it is going to be spent? how much is going to go into various forms of markets? how much is just a lead weight that will never move? jonathan: we don't know. payrolls, the low estimate, 355,000. your av

jonathan: will we get by? tom: i think doge. ♪ ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. ♪ >>

jonathan: 3, 4? jonathan: i have at least -- lisa a: i have at least that. jonathan: i know i'm in the same boat as a lot of people thinking about the same thing after last year, and it is notable that netflix, a big miss on subs. from the, big miss again. in a call with moffe ttnathanson, they said that is payback for a pull forward last year. lisa a: but the idea that you are not getting punished for taking bold moves, you are being rewarded indicates where we will are -- where we are in the economic cycle right now given how much cash these companies have on their books. rob qfii sick -- rob profuse -- rob profusek to an s -- profusek joining us later. yields unchanged at 1.6318%. as lisa tells me, it is not boring. it took you two hours and about 11 minutes. lisa a: to interrupt you? jonathan: no, just to be a little bit bearish. [laughter] lisa a: oh, i've got bearish views. jonathan: i give you another 10 minutes. the old lisa will be coming back. [laughter] from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. huge deal

jonathan: sometimes. [laughter] tom: i really think going over 125 years of the dow, dow jones, "the wall street journal" don't own it anymore, but the good of the change of amazon. will amazon split so they can enter the dow? that is a huge debate now among those in the know. but seriously, there were not one, but two seven your periods where the dow didn't change its makeup. jonathan: the conversation i have another phone daily, will amazon split to get into the dow jones. tom: why do you say the dow doesn't matter? jonathan: i'm joking. lisa: that's sarcasm. [laughter] jonathan: steve shive around -- steve sharon -- steve chiat around -- steve chiavarone joins now, federated hermes portfolio manager. you can speak for me, maybe not tk. steve: the problem is now i know i have a more difficult interview coming up with tom. [laughter] jonathan: the market cap waited with a heavy tilt give you more of a cyclical waiting. how difficult is it to look at things differently this year? steve: i think it is real

jonathan: i agree. tom: early in the morning, we are doing copper, francisco blanch and bill dudley, but sarah is in the trenches of what do you do. her message to me was she is not worried. jonathan: commodities higher. breakevens breaking out. i get all of that. but yesterday, that big draw we saw in the big names in big tech, the nasdaq 100 this morning, and we are looking for price action first, narrative second. we are always doing that. most people are doing that. it is an inflation story this morning, though. do you see that in yields? tom: i see dow futures at -277. jonathan: and nasdaq futures off by 1.95%. is that driven by inflationary concerns, or some thing else? is it just a correction? tom: first of all, we are nowhere near a correction on a standard deviation basis, sort of like. but there's worries out there, and the set of worries is what you got to glean. jonathan: jan hatzius joining us next. what a couple of hours we had on "bloomberg surveillance." tom: our team is just killing it.

jonathan: coming up. good morning. with equity futures higher, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> president biden says he is open to compromise on raising the corporate tax rate. he is called on congress to boost the rate from 21% to 28% now says he doesn't have to be exactly what he said. democratic senator joe manchin has said he could support a 25% rate. the u.s. will support a proposal to with intellectual property protection for coronavirus vaccine. u.s. trade representative told bloomberg the u.s. better access more manufacturing and more shots any arms. drugmakers are opposing same few countries have the capacity to make the vaccine even if they knew the formulas. moderna coronavirus booster shock get positive results against strains of the virus that have emerged in south africa and brazil according to early results. the boosters have some side effects comparable to those seen after the second dose of moderna's existing vaccine. jeff bezos, 2.5 but in dollars -- dumped $2.5 billion of stock. he signaled m

jonathan: but not too big. let's get to jim paulsen, standing by patiently, leuthold weeden chief investment strategist. we had the market in some places absolutely ripping. you can have huge price gains but still have a valuation, a multiple that comes in because profit and profit expectations are up even more, and the profit numbers have been incredible. the earnings through q1 quite fantastic. jim: i agree. the numbers in the first quarter for the s&p 500 have come in at the $200 annualized rate. i think the full year numbers on expectations right now are 1.85% for the year. so wall street is way behind what corporations are already coining in the first quarter. we are going to be way above $200 for the year. so it is very hard, i think. 100 $85 is a huge improvement. i just recently looked back, coming from the lows of earnings all the way back to 1950 and saying how long, if you look at one year from the lowest in the s&p 500, how much was that relative to the previous cycle peak earnings. most of those ar

jonathan: the one on 3rd avenue? tom: everything is up. jonathan: what is it? tom: i crossed the park because i was talking to elong on the phone -- to elon on the phone. jonathan: the one on the upper eastside? but lisa lives near there, you don't. that doesn't make sense. tom: i know. jonathan: tell us about those e-commerce numbers. [laughter] tom: i don't go downstairs, jon. jonathan: give me a break. from new york city this morning, good morning. lisa abramowicz, tom keene. i'm jonathan ferro. i had your cooking. he's actually not bad. lisa: he's really good. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feel

with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. our attention this morning very much on europe with a 10 year in germany inching back towards zero and an italian 10 year climbing to a tent -- for a tenth straight date. tom: the yield space is tangible and you see it within germany. i did this 14, 15 months ago and got yelled at. they did not want me to have a mask on tv so i am going to put the mask on right now. everyone in new york city is dealing with, when do you take this thing off? i put it on. jonathan: just to demonstrate. super helpful. tom: i just put the mask on at radio. look at the headline, european union finds agreement for fully vaccinated travelers. that's linked directly to the markets. jonathan: that's according to afp this morning. we still have to work out what the vaccination certification looks like to get into europe, and whether the united states will reciprocate. because for the big airlines are now, what they want t

jonathan: thank you. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ♪ jonathan: 60 minutes away from a cpi report in the united states of america. live on tv and radio, here's the price action going into that. the sb down 17. we did plant -- the s&p 500 down 17. small caps underperforming. bmo upgrading things on the s&p to 40 have hundred from 4200 -- to 4500 from 4200. jonathan golub looking for 4600 on the s&p. with that, an upgrade to energy and a downgrade to staples. others are bullish staples. they believe that is where the pricing power is. he suggests that the higher commodity prices come along energy, the higher input costs for staples, that is going to weigh on things. switch up the board. yesterday was fascinating. when equities moved badly, there were inflation fears. energy down 2.5%. banks down 1.3%. if i showed you that yesterday morning, i think we would have been talking about inflation fears. why was the nasdaq whipping back? tom: i think there's a bull component pushing back.

jonathan: and wages. we have to talk about wages and whether wages will be useful for the next several months. how much longer will we have to look at the labor market? bruce: when you look at the big gains, you are seeing the rotation back to the service sector. as terms -- as far as inflation, two very different stories. how much pressure are we getting as we get this growth and normalize? i think if you look at what is happening in the wage measures that are not distorted, we are still pretty low. as the fed has been doing, you want to look through some of the near term dynamics, which i think are going to be powerful. lisa: near-term dynamic is difficult to say when you talk about the intel ceo coming out and saying over the weekend that the chip shortage will go on for years. how do we decide this is transitory? bruce: i do not think it is going to be easy. quite frankly, i think what we are going to see is not going to be very indicative of the trend. i do think if we are right and we can carry stro

jonathan: yes, together. tom: it becomes abler. jonathan: this is -- a blur. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: palestinians poured into the streets of the gaza strip today to celebrate a cease-fire with israel. the hamas militant group and is really forces announced a truth that ends 11 days of conflict. more than 200 were killed by israeli airstrikes and artillery fire on gaza. i doesn't died during hamas rocket attacks on israel. the u.s. is now calling for a global minimum corporate tax of at least 15%. that is less than the 21% it had proposed for overseas earnings and u.s. businesses. some nations called that rate excessive area international negotiators are trying to come up with an agreement the summer. the european union is offering the tourist industry a chance to salvage itself. they have agreed on the introduction of certificates that would allow travelers to offer proof they have been vaccinated, recovered from the illness, or have a recent negative test. deere has lifted its profit forecast for the full year. surging prices have boost to consum

jonathan: i'm with you. i am trying to tell you with that what is happening in the equity market -- tom: i am just trying to boost ratings. jonathan: keep going. [laughter] financials, energy, that's where the outperformance was yesterday. i can't reconcile that with what is happening in real yields. real yields were headed the other way. inflation expectations were building. real yields were headed south. tom: we've got a good guest coming up on this, but it is a soup we've got right now. it is a bouillabaisse. [laughter] jonathan: you are killing me this morning, never mind the french language. lisa, your take on the market. lisa: the real yield issue is very interesting because it seems like the bond market has more faith the fed will come in and suppress yields or keep rates low for a long time, even as investors say they are not buying it. they are looking more towards the tapering. there's a dissonance here. i wonder how much this has to do with international flows. we have seen more international inve

jonathan: fantastic. the bigger challenge at the end of the year is probably not so much the inflation debate. it is the deceleration conversation for growth. the reason i say that is because we talk about the former far more than the latter, which make me wonder whether the latter is more underappreciated. lisa: especially because stocks have been an inflation hedge. increasingly, people have looked at stocks as alden turned -- as an alternative to bonds because they could benefit from an alternating cycle. what happens if my pound back -- if matt horne bach is right -- if matt hornbach is right? jonathan: to be fair, i think we are only 10 points away from the bull case on tens. the big bullish call i think is mr. steve mager over at hsbc, who i believe is still looking for a move towards 1% by year end. tom: there is still a case within all the gloom out there and a pendulum of higher yields where wise people are saying the certitude is going to kill you. you mentioned mr. major writing for hsbc. i wou

jonathan: very much so. this is a headline we have seen before, but it is interesting that off the back at that headline, you might get a boost this time around. a little bit of nervousness around a couple of issues. once again, not my job to say what markets should or shouldn't do. that is not what we do. here's the headline. tom: we are near a correction. jonathan: there we go. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. ighand asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't addres

jonathan: tom keene and jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz taking a week off. tom: i thought she was coming back monday. jonathan: next monday. this is bloomberg. tom: it was transitory. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. crude oil and gasoline prices rose after cyberattack of the largest oil pipeline in the u.s.. clonal pipeline has not come up with -- colonial pipeline has not come up with a timeline for restarting operations. concerned there could be a shortage of gasoline and diesel across the u.s. president biden is preparing for his first face-to-face meeting with mitch mcconnell and kevin mccarthy. wednesday meeting comes as republicans are ramping up their opposition to the president dr. trillion dollar economic land. there is not much expectation for a breakthrough. last week mcconnell said he is 100% focused on blocking joe biden's agenda. in jerusalem weeks of violence threatened to escalate on the day israel celebrates control over the contested city. palestinians clashed with israeli police, and at least 50 palestinians were hospit

jonathan: in the middle. hold. neutral. coming up, matt one back. >> economists and everyone, companies, are having a really difficult time keeping up with how fast fundamentals are improving. >> in the u.s., we are seeing a rapid rebound in demand, and supply is taking time to adjust. >> if the economy stays this strong, fueled by the stimulus, we get inflation. >> a decent amount of risk for inflation to keep rising and staying higher for longer. >> have to focus on ambiguity. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city and to our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we advanced 20 points on the s&p 500. we begin with the most bizarre story,

jonathan g: yes and no. we actually think that boring old economists -- look, i've been a gross guy for a long time, and every stock has its moment in the sun. i don't know if this is the moment in the sun for tech. i thick this is the time for old economy stocks because these are companies with big fixed overhead, that tend to respond to the kind of stimulus we are seeing proposed by the biden adminstration and the general overview we are seeing in the economy. lisa: can we get to 4600 on the s&p without a commensurate rise in yields, without a readthrough to the bond market? how much is there a feedback loop air? -- loop here? jonathan g: first of all, my expectation is that we see interest rates rise a little bit from here. if you look at how stocks respond, they want higher interest rates because what we are seeing right now with the 10 year bond yield at 1.6% and fed funds at zero, it is a sign the economy is not yet on stable footing. so the market once to see the demand for capital as signs that thing

jonathan: good morning. alongside tom keene this morning, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa will be back with us next monday. equity futures down 0.75% on the s&p, -74 on the nasdaq, and moving deeper into negative territory, off by over 1%. unchanged on the tenure year at 1.6039%. in the -- the 10 year at 1.6039%. in the fx market, the euro-dollar unchanged. tom: it is a wonderful time to move on from the jobs report and catch up with jared bernstein, member of the white house counsel on economic advisors. dr. bernstein has been definitive with his work at the center on budget and policy priorities before that. an advisor to vice president biden, now holding court at the white house. inc. you so much for joining us today. i want to go back to the archconservative fear that has been there since the time of david ricardo and john stuart mill. we were not grow -- we will not grow our way out of our challenges. everyone in the middle has battled this for years, including solo at m.i.t. 1957. describe right now this fear that we can't grow our way out of our challenges. dr.

jonathan k: i do. -- jonathan: i do. can these companies continue to keep these big margins by doing just that? they did it in q1. for the economics profession, i think they did a wonderful job in the last 24 hours explaining way what was driving high prices. a lot of this came from reopening. the components central to that, thing about used cars. those prices are flying. hotels, lodging, all of the above. we get it, ok. but for the market, you have to reassess the balance of risks around your central view. i've repeated that through the last two hours. that's why you see a move in the market, in the price action. tom: that important meeting, we are getting there. i really want to emphasize before we go to retail sales tomorrow, the claims chart is exceptionally well behaved. from february 12, it is the claims data that indicates a better lower statistic. jonathan: i am going to leave this for mr. sweeney of credit suisse to explain in about 30 minutes, but economists have struggled by looking at claims, which have reall

jonathan: i think so. what we have seen is pretty much every central bank except australia and the u.s. within the g10 begin a tapering process. the u.s., as we know, extraordinarily dovish. he bore getting excited about the minutes, but i don't read too much into it. as long as the fed is intentionally putting itself behind the curve, that should put weakening pressure on the dollar. other countries that are seeing more of an acceleration in the growth pickup earlier cycle, and then regions that have begun tapering, interest rate differentials between the u.s. and much of the rest of the world should continue to compress. tom: i want to go nerd-o on your right now. it is math thursday. there's a bond-stock correlation which is most unique right now. liz and schwab -- liz ann sonders of schwab has really featured this in her work. the interest rate strategy does not work when correlations flip like this. what is going on in that space right now? evan: what we are actually seeing with the bond correlation t

jonathan: ken leon, thank you. hsbc could not get the scale, and it's couldn't -- and they just couldn't invest in the quality either. not good. tom: i think you've got a really unique perspective on this. to me, it is across the causeway from our offices. how is the hsbc perception? jonathan: the product in the u.s. is not good enough. in the u.k., it is pretty decent. i know a number of people who have hsbc bank accounts. if you select to fill out the form, it is very cumbersome. just not good. tom: i can't say enough about what we are learning coming out of this pandemic about corporate culture and its importance over strategy. jonathan: on what front? tom: like at&t, down in flames with warner bros.. whether that goes down to discovery, amazon buying mgm and all of that, this cultural overlay among all of the finance, the investment, all of the mckenzie talk, as you call it. i think the cultural overlay like cathay bank in l.a. is a huge deal, and i should point out citizen bank of providence. jonathan: enjoy t

jonathan: me and my $140 billion. [laughter] tom: i look at the partition here, and hugo was great two hours ago or so on the digital differentiation that is out there right now. it is the same thing in inflation, where there is an inflation differentiation of goods and services. jonathan: you said the markdown of the media. can we stay on that for a second? $5 billion. can you imagine the conversation around these companies years ago? let's not let the moment go. $5 billion. what happened to those companies? tom: thank you for stopping on this. this is really important. i look at the late pete peterson , who i thought was wonderful and extremely generous, someone who is incredibly shrewd. tim armstrong is the shrewdest guy on the block. tim armstrong's exit from this train wreck is going to be canonized in business programs in the coming decade. lisa: there's are larger -- there's a larger point here. do you, for when everyone used to have yahoo! accounts -- do you remember when everyone used to have yahoo! accounts?

jonathan: have you given them an account? lisa: not yet. jonathan: down 13% on bitcoin. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden appears to be boxed in when it comes to the fighting in the gaza strip. right now he is able to only urge a cease fire rather than taking stronger steps. the problem, the president is wary of applying too much pressure on israel and has a lack of influence on hamas. he is looking to build on it denuclearization agreement president trump reached with north korea. the 2018 agreement between the former president and north korea's kim jong-un was a bare-bones declaration that called for the two sides to work towards complete denuclearization of the korean peninsula. in china tesla sales growth slowed down sharply last month, little under 12,000. that is almost two thirds last then in march, when almost 35,000 were registered. the embarrassing protests against tesla at the shanghai auto show and a run of accidents. the ceo of deutsche bank says the firm must be ready for possible acquisi

jonathan: here we go. are you telling me you're talking about how to get allocation exposure to the dow? greg: we have been. in the last 30 years, i thing it is the first time i have talked about it. there's an argument that the dow is a little bit anachronistic in terms of how it is constructed. but when we screen through the global indices and look for the indices that have positive exposure to value, which has very negative exposure to quality, the very negative exposure to value, but something like the dow fits quite nicely in between. it has positive exposure relative to the other indices for quality and value. lisa: i think about the idea that the dow is really pegged to the old economy, and the old economy has gotten a boost from some of the infrastructure spending, higher commodity costs, and the new bid a headline that ford plans to boost electrification spending by 36% to $30 billion, hoping to really ramp up how much of its fleet really is electric. how much could this bet in the old economy be

no adjustments being made economic forecast based on that jonathan: jonathan:. how do you make that adjustment? how do you think about what is happening in d.c. and plug that into your outlook? julia: a lot of what we are seeing is the political theater around the structure bill. we are not adjusting our forecast because we do think it will get past. the question is how big is it and how much is paid for through higher taxes. that still seems to be in a state of flux. overall we think the bulk of the infrastructure proposal goes through. the question is is it bipartisan or a partyline vote? lisa: there's a question of how much this higher inflationary regime hinges on the presumption you talked about, that infrastructure will get past, something resembling what it is right now in the proposal. julia: i think it is an important contributor to the outlook, although remember infrastructure is something that gets spread over 10 years. it is not a replacement for a fading fiscal impulse. we will see a fading fiscal impulse. we have had a tremendous recovery push that

jonathan: it is unique and unusual. we mentioned this a couple times in the last few weeks, this time last year in the june forecast from the federal reserve, they were projecting unemployment to drop 5.5% at the end of 2022. that was june 2020, looking up to the end of 2022 a 5.5%. we could see something close to that this friday, april 21. lisa: it speaks to the lack of billability -- the visibility across wall street that are in depending a lot of the consensus bets out there. what happens if we are wrong this time around, i've we have been so wrong. jonathan: are you ok? lisa: honestly, i wasn't expecting things to move that fast. jonathan: everybody has been wrong on this one. it is an absence of humility that some are pushing back against right now, pointing the finger at the federal reserve the moment for the lack of militant about how quickly we might bounce back. the estimate north of one million for the april payrolls report. median estimate, $9.95 million. where -0.2%. -- we are -0.2%. alongside tom keene and

jonathan: nope. alongside tom keene at lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is challenging to manufacture vaccines. to start from scratch with a voluntary license to someone who has not done it before or is using a new formulation takes time. it is very risky and it is hard to do. the approach being taken right now is to engage as much of the world a vaccine manufacturers that people gained -- that people can get their hands on and involve experienced people in the process. tom: julie of merch and their heritage -- of merck and their heritage of pharmacology. we drive forward the conversation. a good number on jobs day tomorrow. the markets, it is about this pandemic. we were advantaged with sam fazeli of bloomberg intelligence, our director of research and an expert in pharmacology out of the university of london. sam fazeli, there is a course at london, lwm 23 on intellectual property and medicine. many of our viewers do not understand the copyright law. what did the drug companies actually own? sam: i think moderna has over 200

jonathan: i have -- sen. daines: i have chaired the national park subcommittee for the last couple of congress as. i am a big fan of our national parks. we spent a big time with her family in the wilderness area of our national parks. we passed the great america outdoors at under president trump with a strong bipartisan vote that was targeting the infrastructure for our national parks as well as the land and water conservation fund. we have a down payment on infrastructure badly needed to restore the frayed edges of our national parks. stepping back on the infrastructure question, we need to define what infrastructure is. it is roads, highways, bridges, waterways, broadband, airports, wastewater systems. there is room for a bipartisan compromise. not some of the social programs, free community college, that the bided program is saying is part of infrastructure. lisa: we have heard a headline number $800 billion. sen. daines: i think there is a range, and the $500 billion to $800 billion range that is still a

jonathan: do you want a secondhand car? tom: i got in 1954 nash. jonathan: tom keene is driven. this is bloomberg. ♪ jacob: with your first word news, i am ritika gupta. president biden stunned allies with his support for waving protection for the coronavirus vaccine, a reversal of luck standing u.s. policy that long-standing u.s. policy. but there are signs that the president is interested in modest compromise. meanwhile, germany says it opposes a waiver. a warning from the fed, it says that the rising appetite for risk is creating vulnerability in the u.s. financial system. the central bank says prices could be vulnerable to significant declines in that appetite follows. fed governor lael brainard also cited archegos capital as a cause for more hedge fund disclosures. jp morgan chief executive officer jimmie once congress to spell out targets for creating jobs if lawmakers approve president biden's massive spending measures. in a interview, dimon said, quote, , "just throwing money does not work." he said if taxes are raised, there should be an itemized estimate of how the m

pushback, jonathan, push back. there is a difference between saying there is limited upside in the equity market, and limited upside in the credit market. in high-yield, some of those markets in fixed income are constrained, which does limit the upside of particular markets within credit. there is a limit to that because of the embedded call in some of those securities. tom: the correlation between bonds and equities are different. what is interesting is that axis of that study, jon, where there is a tradition that the bond market is out front of the equity market. i think tony dwyer is very good at this. as lisa mentioned, with high-yield, clearly there is a signal right now that the good times are ahead. jonathan: speaking of a peak, here is one for you, lisa, hsbc. this year could mark a peak in bonn supply with the deficit projected to reduce. a meaningful reduction in a long-term auctions. e 1%n -- 1% end 2021 and 2022 is the call. we have a lot of time this tuesday morning. lisa: a lot of nuance this morning.

jonathan: i want to jump in. i'm trying to understand how you can warn about these issues and reduce your cash balance to the treasury and reduce your options size. if you're worried about the debt ceiling, why would you be reducing your cash balance? michael: the problem for the treasury is the losses they have to. when they suspended the debt ceiling, they said the treasury had to have their cash balance down to $150 billion. the biden administration lawyers have looked at that and say it could be higher. we are at 1.2 trillion now. that is one of the reasons we have a lot of upset and the very short paper market because treasury is spending down this money and has reduced sales. it will get complicated project managers between now and july 31. tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. this is a flashback to hear people talking about the debt ceiling. very busy in the next three days, michael mckee. now joining us for a four hour conversation is michael feroli, he has a brilliant essay out on friday on goods and s