tom was broke. he had gone into several different business ventures, including going over into kentucky and doing some mining work for andrew carnegie. several other things. and he and another gentleman who tom trusted had gone into business together and opened a store in southwest virginia mercantile. that was doing very well. and this business partner turned out to be a crook during the wee hours of night. he went in and he had several people with him, obviously. they stole all the inventory out of the store. they took all the money out of cash register. they even stole the cash register. so tom lost every penny that he had invested. he was absolutely broke. so he and ana liza and all eight of the children moved to south carolina and went to work in this textile mill that you're looking at. from 1897 to the latter part of 1899, the entire family worked in this building six days a week from sun up to sun down. and tom writes in great detail about what life was like. how tough it was. and they had s

tom loved to travel. when he came back to washington county, that is when he really started writing extensively, and he loved to travel. if you had turned the clock back a few years, you probably would've not seen tom kollie at reunions, because one of the symptoms of ptsd which is still valid today with our service men and women, when they come back from iraq or afghanistan or wherever, the last thing they want to do is be around people they served with. and early on, tom probably would have not been seen in a photograph like this, but he went to several of the united confederate veteran reunions. this happens to be a reunion of the first virginia cavalry. they had a reunion everywhere somewhere different in virginia. this one happened to be and addington, so tom did not offer to travel for this one. i think this was in 1902. this is tom's grave site, and i know it is hard to see from where you are sitting. the stones weathered a little bit, it was clean, you should've seen it before they cleaned, you co

tom: looks like the san jose sharks on a bad day. [laughter] it has been a week of four fridays p that is how long this week has been. lisa: i know. it says more about how we are feeling this summer -- is it over yet? the pandemic is sort of coming back to the psychological hit, in addition to some of the pressures on the travel and leisure sector sending a new tone. this is what i take away. tom: off the gloom yesterday -- we were doing the gloom show, the markets catching a bid. and a real sustained level. lisa: if you look under the surface, yes, it was -- it has been fascinating. i've been shares that have absolutely gotten crushed. amazon, which is interesting. other shares have held in nicely and have done, back to this sort of stay home economy in big tech, dominance. it raises the question are we seeing a correction in a nuanced way sector by sector that we do not even notice? tom: an extraordinary story in kabul and in washington. we are all watching what we see in this horrific, ongoing story. kailey: we of course are. i am

tom: it is. and what is important here is with robinhood, you've got to ask the obligatory cfa level two question. romaine, you've got to dive into the fundamental details of robinhood if you passed the level two cfa exam, if you've done that. romaine: thank you for that segue. it is a huge milestone for me. it means it is about 30% -- it means i am about 30% closer to being as smart as taylor riggs. this is notable because this was a fundamental story for amd. the stock had been a huge laggard for most of the year, despite being the star of the show back in 2018, 2019. stocks rallied about 20% over the last three weeks, on a five-day winning streak. if it closes in the green today, that will be six straight consecutive highs. we got lyft earnings last night. they were surprisingly good. they turned a profit. the street was looking for a loss. the president was on bloomberg television. he said this isn't going to be a one-off thing. this will be consistent profitability. uber is going to report a

tom: says who? jon: a lot of investors are looking at it that way. tom: tom: ok. i am going -- tom: ok. i will go with that. i'm looking at the bond market telling me otherwise. jon: yields have come in for three straight sessions and equities have been -- for five straight. lisa: we have seen the delta variant reduce economic activity. president biden coming out supporting a booster shot, this coming out in about a month, saying most people will need a booster shot or should get one, which raises the question, talking about international relations of how much the united states will export some of these vaccines to try to get the rest of the world up to speed. also, how do you unroll the policy of booster shots that has had such a difficult time just getting people with the first two inoculations. jon: so this is eight months after the second? lisa: correct. jon: good morning to you all. here's your equity market, down 19 on the s&p, -.4%, a five day winning streak and grinding down record after record, all-time high after all-time high. as tom points out, yields

tom: good

tom: good morning, everyone. it's monday, "always interesting and more so this monday, lisa, as we set up your jobs day on friday. lisa: it may be more important than jackson hole. last friday, how much will it affect the federal and how much will it frankly be a more tradable event? tom: the estimate was down to 5.2 percent unemployment, 750,000. lisa, five .2% is nicely on the way to a ater american economy. >> though still much russian as to what for employment means. some say it's tighter and others say that we still have a lot of slack labor market uncertainty that is very much not weird up on friday and very much unclear with some of the jobless data and filings that seem to be coming down at a time when there are still millions out of work. tom: interesting news flow, taylor, is this where strategist tweak upwards? am i reading this correctly without my glasses? 4509? taylor: 4500 if you like round numbers, northward to 5000 you have really seen the bulls come out. though i would sort of mentioned that it

it tom: was a good signal tom: -- tom: it was a good signal of this global slowdown fear. i would mention swiss franc has recovered a little. to me, it is all noise, don't you agree? jonathan: total noise until get to the payrolls report. even i told you right now, would you be able to dell me how the market responds? tom: i would fake it like i do every day. let's go to someone with absolute certainty on what is going on in washington. emily wilkins joins us. almost heaven, west virginia. mr. manchin set off a comment on chairman powell, but more importantly is what the senator from west virginia is facing at home, which is constituents and inflation. explain that tone in washington of all of these different fancy people in suits and ties and their constituents saying here's the non-transitory here and now. emily: there are two narratives right now in d.c. one of them is that inflation is a huge problem, that the biden administration needs to get in gear addressing it. the other narrative is yes, inflation isn't looking good right now, but it is just the economy coming ba

tom: a massive change. i would suggest some of those worries can impart a disinflationary tendency on the inflation worries in the united states. i'm not sure how that math works out. i do not share the gloom from the united states from what we see that's tangible. jonathan: hasn't that been the change for china was a source of disinflation and now it's a source potentially. that seems to be the change. lower prices and commodity. we catch up in the next hour. down 4%. the man from delmont a makes a comeback. i feel like this is something to do -- are you in support? tom: beige suits are worn in the summer. you would style in beige. paul stewart or whatever fancy euro trash you buy. jonathan: are you done? tom: and with your british accent. jonathan: from new york we will leave it all there. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> new report from climate china -- scientist see no end to rising temperatures before 2050. the assessment comes from the un's intergovernmental panel on climate change for the planet will ke

kailey: tom -- lisa: tom asked a question earlier today. given that chair powell is likely to remain at the helm, what inflation is he looking for ? william: i think they have focused on the notion of is this transitory or is this going to be more persistent. to have persistent inflation, you have to have labor and pressure on wages, and you have to have a rise in inflation expectations. so far it looks like there is still some slack in the liver market, and inflation expeditions have risen a little bit, really two levels more consistent with what the fed wants, so at this point, the fed view is that the inflation pressures we are having our transitory. probably they are going to be more persistent than one would like for transitory pressures. the inflation rate will probably stay above 2% for a while. as long as those things are ok, the federal reserve will be pretty comfortable with where inflation is right now. tom: as did secretary yellen, can you tell us this morning you would support the renomination, the reappointment of chairman pow

tom: jonathan: absolute tom: tom: -- absolute relative analysis is important here. . jonathan: in about 40 minutes, the adp report in america. michael mckee will join us to break that down. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. researchers say vaccines targeting the highly transmissible delta variant main dow be needed. a study looked at recent numbers in england. they found the antibodies raised by current shots are less effective. in china, the widest outbreak since the start of the pandemic is hampering tourism and spending during what is the peak summer holiday. that has analysts reviewing their economic growth projections. it has spread to almost all of china's 32 provinces. the british navy says a potential hijacking of a ship off iran has ended. unidentified people were said to have boarded the ship yesterday. those boaters were said to leave today. the incident took place days after a possible current strike hit an israeli operated ship in the region. two sailors were killed, and the u.k. says iran was probably behind the a

tom: well said. lisa: in fairness, i think what he was saying was the innate -- the inflation allowed people to do well by going into other sectors. you have seen decline. it is a nuanced market. you can see the bears expressing themselves in the stock market. where are they in the bond market? tom: the bear expressing himself is lonely at the jackson hole lodge. lisa and i, we are on medication. i am missing the acclaimed snake river lager swiss burger at the pioneer grill. francine: i will send one over. i was looking at the story which blew my mind. you need trading has not been this low since the start of the century. think about that, down 34%. tom: which century? lisa: this one. tom: it's a long century. yes, folks. lisa has a kimchi burger. this is boomer, good morning. oomer, good morning. >> it was approximately 1000 and we leave the number of americans actively seeking to leave afghanistan is lower significantly. it is hard to overstate the complexity and danger of this effort. we are opera

tom: good morning everyone. simulcast on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. 832 thousand jobs created in the last three months in america. we reconsider things after that bang up jobs report. jonathan: we are back to 1.28 on tens. your view of china right now. we keep going back to this. it's so important. the number one issue has not been demand. demand has been rock solid. it's been supply and our ability to get that supply to meet the demand. do you have to delay your call of that full-service sector recovery? >> fractionally weaker over the last couple of days. relatively vaccinated areas versus china and what i see are houses reacting. we saw citigroup go up to 2% yield and now jp morgan goes the other way. jonathan: 20 basis point cuts on tens and 30's. we are seeing some upgrades to the equity market. i think we saw 4700 ron goldman. michael purves said 4800. they believe rates can remain stable and low and earnings can remain tremendous. tom: we see the combined study on wall street, but the parti

is that enough for you, tom? the fed jobs report, that upside surprise unlocking high treasury yields. 1.3050, right now down to numb. tom: is that two-year a big deal? jonathan: it becomes a bigger deal into next year, i think, when we start to have this real conversation about higher interest rates with the federal reserve. the tapering story -- it is not about when or if, it is about whether they can aggressively delink any decision on tapering. but when you start to talk about higher interest rates, when you start to think about a stronger dollar, as we make more progress towards substantial progress the federal reserve, that is a nasty recipe -- a big gap lower overnight. when it is a big gap lower overnight and you have no idea what you are talking about, you tall -- call it technical, liquidity. there are other big issues around for gold. the fact of the matter is we had the biggest conversation about inflation in about a generation, and this has -- one we have a conversation about inflation fading, gold s

tom: thank you. chinese president xi jinping urging government officials to hit their growth targets this year as researcher shows the impact of beijing's regulatory overhaul. . that is next this is. -- that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back, this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." xi jinping says beijing is determined to hit major economic and social development targets set for this year. it linked to those are the regulatory crackdowns and they have been insisting. creating a more prosperous society. the data tells us a different story so far. sylvain broyer is still with us. it seems like we are getting the regulatory crackdown, not just targeting the sector. that is one part of the store. the other part is the pboc. they are remaining in support, the need for more credit. how is it playing out? what kind of delicacy is around this balancing act and how concerned are you about the economic growth prospects of this country? >> under the economic growth prospects, we saw q2 gdp flowing

tom: i agree. to be the major message for the markets, this is still an ongoing story, even as annmarie mentions washington is in a look back study mode. jonathan: for last couple of months every morning we've had the same discussion in washington, what is happening with fiscal, with infrastructure spending. we have not discussed that now. that is what you're bringing up, whether that has faded into the background. tom: i go back to the politics of it. specie blows he is under siege from her moderates -- speaker pelosi is under siege from her moderates. her moderates are in districts that care about afghanistan. jonathan: and the bond market, yields unchanged. crude, a bounce up a four day losing streak. we are firmer by .5%. from new york city this morning, this is bloomberg. ♪ comcast nbcuniversal is investing in entrepreneurs to bring what's next for sports technology to athletes, teams, and fans. that's why we created the sportstech accelerator, to invest in and develop the next generation of

tom: very good, jon. jonathan: is that why you're upset this morning? tom: yeah. the only one that talks to me is mckee. jonathan: what is with mohamed? he's a mets fan, and they are doing well. lisa: yes they are, but don't talk about it or else they won't be. jonathan: this is quite a market check, isn't it, going from financial markets to baseball teams, mets are on top, and apparently i'm not meant to talk about it? ok. [laughter] let's get you some stocks. romaine: let's start in the m&a space this morning. a big deal for square, buying the australian company after pay. this is a big installment loan company. square now trying to push into a space that has already become popular. they are paying about $29 billion u.s. for this company. some folks say that is not necessarily enough, so there's some concern that this might not get through. that is why you are seeing shares down about 4.5%. this is basically been -- in this installment phase. the stock had actually been underperforming since the ipo back in january, but it is getting a bit of a pop here, up in t

tom: two questions. one of durable good and then i have to sell forward on all of your hard work on jackson hole. the idea of durable goods -- in a service sector world like a passively use elation, -- capacity utilization, do we care anymore about durable goods? michael: the problem with the durable goods orders is they are very volatile. it is hard to separate out. tom: even if -- even in a pandemic you have to take a three month moving average. michael: and their -- and there are always problems with the data. tom: you start strong. your chaps, your cowboy hat, talking to esther george. wyoming is in the kansas city district. you speak to her tomorrow. who is she and why should we lean forward when we talk to this most original president? michael: she is the president of the kansas city federal reserve, normally the host of the jackson hole gathering. she is cautious and has been something of an inflation hawk. interesting to see what her latest view is, especially in the covid world. i want to point

tom: very important, certainly on the liquidity. i am tom keene. we will be joined in a moment, but we want to frame where these equity markets are and where they will go with david wilson, bloomberg stocks editor, starting out as hot wash coordinator 15, 20 years ago. david: assuming stocks don't fall out of bed today, you are looking at the seventh straight monthly gain. there were 14 earlier instances going back to the 1950's where you saw streaks that long or longer, so what i did, jumping off from their data, was say, ok, how does the s&p 500 perform after you get past the seventh month? and there are three scenarios that may play out. one is the streak ends, the index falls. second, you get a relatively small gain, 3% or less. the other is you make it a gain of 10% or more. tom: a lot of predictive force. >> it is all over the place clearly. you have a relatively even distribution among those three scenarios. given where the market is now, it is hard to figure out where it goes next going back. if you assume stocks will fall, maybe not. tom:

tom: i am sorry. lisa bought 5000 square feet on the upper west side because she got the pool right three months in a row. jonathan: and cute. do you want to continue? -- thank you. do you want to continue? tom: our job is to put into perspective how important this jobs report is. jonathan: we had 50 k at the low end. -- 350 k at the low end. tom: i was in a cab in new york city yesterday and the cabdriver was adamant that the reason you don't see more cabs on the street in new york as they are home on unemployment. jonathan: plenty of demand. lisa: just to do a brief fact check, i did not buy 5000 square feet on the upper west side. going forward, the question is why there hasn't been a faster flow into the labor market. people blame the advanced unemployment -- the enhanced unemployment. but those who dropped out early have not seen an uptick of people into the workforce. jonathan: you take a break. equity futures up a single point on the s&p. yields up to basis points on a 10 year. going into payro

tom: take it back. if the yield is telling us something and the bid up in bonds is telling us something, you flip the reciprocal and that is how you get to dow 40,000. jonathan: what is it telling us? can we agree on what it tells us? does it tell us the federal reserve is having a massive presence in this market. does it tell us that the hope for better growth for you -- growth through q1 have been diminished by fears of decelerating growth in the year ahead? i have no idea. you get five different strategists, i will get five different reads as to what is going on. tom: lisa abramowicz, your thoughts on all of this? bring it away from full faith and credit in bonds into what you are observing in ign high-yield. lisa: basically, the fed put that has been ongoing, and bill dudley even said the dominant factor in yields being as low as they are, is trickling over to the credit side. companies refinancing at the fastest pace ever. i think we were framing the debate well earlier today, when you were talking

is that the lecture pepsico, tom? -- is that the like with pepsico, tom? tom: this is important for the surveillance team. i mean, there was a period, john, in the 1970's, where you had to choose every morning cuppa cannot or tang. jonathan: this sounds really personal. we can talk something more personal with the federal reserve, chairman waller. i think he could be ready to do an announcement by september. that depends on the next two jobs reports. if they come in stronger than the last one, then i think you have the progress that you need. payrolls friday, this coming friday, is a little bit more important than it would be for the likes of governor brainard. john: the question -- lisa: the question just is, and you have repeated this again and again, what is the market response? if we get a strong jobs number, is that positive or negative her bonds, even the fact that a sooner hike, a sooner taper might crimp growth in the long run? jonathan: no idea is the answer to that. that is a moving target going into payrolls friday. our current meeting estimate,

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. we welcome all of you on radio and television. another hour of bloomberg surveillance. thanks for the responses on twitter. by email. by carrier prince george's pidgeon. we appreciate it. ferro love. taylor rigs in to save the day. i look at where we are and i go back to all the academics you have done. none of it links together. taylor, to be blunt, our act is not textbooks, is it? taylor: it is not. certainly not in level threefment it is a fully invested bears in this market. that is the phrase, tom, i keep hearing. there are no bears in the equity market and no bears in the bond market despite yields calling to climb higher. tom: the sur vealness of this. mexico g.d.p. for q 2 a bit dated, up 19%. rounded up to 20%. lisa, the heart of the matter, you have been really good on this, we are going from a boom economy to what we don't know. lisa: the idea of how quickly we slow. how much is based on fact. how much will this roll into a new normal that looks different from the old norma

tom: are you kidding me? jonathan: are you that upset about it? tom: i thing it is nuts. lisa: i think it is the idea of why should there be a bank that is the intermediary between the government and individuals. why not have a central depositary? this has been a very controversial issue for financial institutions. jonathan: are you two in an argument right now? i can't tell. tom: it's a marriage, jon. what can i say? [laughter] jonathan: approaching $1.40 on the pound against the u.s. dollar, $1.3944. the bank of england sees modest tightening over the forecast period is likely necessary. we will hear from governor bailey in about 55 minutes or so. we want to bring you gene tannuzzo, the columbia threadneedle global head of fixed income. let's work through this bond market. real yields were negative through 1.20% yesterday. can you get your head around that? gene: looking at where the fed has placed interest rates at this point in time, but we have seen in the last month is that. i have started to disappoint relative to expectations the first time really since may of las

tom: tom is a jerk, tom is this. lisa: how many air pots you have? jonathan: nadia lovell will join me later. we count down to the opening bell. futures down .4%. tom: you are leaving us? jonathan: you betcha. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro for now. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it has become one of the biggest crises in joe biden's presidency. the president offered a defiant defense of his decision to pull u.s. troops out of afghanistan. he acknowledge the situation was far from perfect. allies and opponents suggested the president disregarded concerns the taliban was advancing quickly and that is what led to a humanitarian disaster. the u.s. government is preparing to offer coronavirus booster shots as soon as next month. biden administration officials are expected to recommend the shot eight months after people received their second vaccine dose. the u.s. is facing a new wave of infections fueled by the delta variant. california wildfires about born -- have now burned more than a record one mill

tom: it will be an important speech. i suggest it is in the overlay on what we see with the delta variant. the indonesia headline we saw 10 minutes ago with the deaths on indonesia, the combination of claritin and the delta variant, it gives you more negative yield. jonathan: let's do the tom keene victory lap. $1000 per employee going to get the vaccine. [laughter] tom: it took you forever to get to this. lisa: carry-on. tom: i want to say this again and this is not an original idea, this is monopoly money. what is so silly here is the billions of dollars and trillions of dollars we cannot contribute to who are rental grieved and all of that. get the money, get them vaccinated. the key thing with the vanguard announcement is the vaccinated get the money. jonathan: they have until october to get vaccinated. lisa, the response in a corporate america is getting face. lisa: it protects you, it protects us from disruption and it raises the bar in terms of how much freedom they have when they g

tom: that you. -- the e and the p. tom: the e and the p. out of afghanistan, we will see how that unfolds through the morning. the yield, 1.3536. i will call it quiet and. -- quiet end. yields have done nothing. it crude, $72 per barrel. the dollar is at the beach as well. lisa, at the wall, what do you got? lisa: [laughter] the dollar is at the beach pretty much sums up market for the past couple days. to add onto what you are talking about with markets, crude posting its best week going back to october. this highlights the shift in sentiment under the surface here that people are getting less concerned about the delta variants prolonging the pandemic indefinitely. today, i hear there is an event happening in four hours that we have been expecting someone, jay powell, will be speaking. 10 a clock a.m., he is outlining his philosophy and tends to make news on the jackson hole symposium speeches. we are looking for some shift in the framework of thinking. perhaps the balance of risks with inflation and acting too soon. this is the conference

tom: oh, come on. i was sitting with afterthought at dinner last night, and afterthought is talking to me like anastasia about libor plus 300. come on. libor plus 500? lisa: very frequent conversation about the increase in allowance. there's a question about what dental consequent is there are for maintaining these policies for a prolonged time, with some of the easiest financial conditions and history during a boom economy. i wonder, moving away from the technicals and 500 over libor, the idea of the use of proceeds, what you're seeing in the private credit world, the public high-yield debt markets, is there starting to appear a sign of froth in terms of why companies are borrowing and how they are using the money? anastasia: just definitely been a record amount of fundraising, a record amount of liquidity, whether you look at the private equity market powder, but this is an economy that is on very solid footing, and this is an economy where innovation is coming. so there's dry powder that is chasing

tom: i agree. here is the mark. i put these out two weeks ago in celebration of our great epidemiologists, virologists. we all have these back on our face. on radio, i'm hold -- holding up a mask. jon: lisa and line with the goldman forecast, in the past 24 hours, downgrade q3 gdp in america, an up to q4, and did i mention the fed? they're talking about delta. lisa: this is the right focus. i think it is important you talk about how this is not about the fed and tapering, it is about supply chain, about inflation reducing consumer sentiment. we have seen that across the board as well as production. interesting to see people are coming out and seeing the potential ramifications for this. the big question in my mind, how long do these disruptions go on at a time of zero tolerance for covid cases and the likes of china? jon: china front and center. a conversation about 12 redistribution in china, look at the move in europe, that is where the big move is right now. look at the move in the luxury players. they are gettin

i remember tom telling me stories. i'm driving my rented ford fiesta 80 miles on a dirt road so i can eyeball the site of the battle of crazy woman's fork. and tom is in these societies that some of the diaries they're bringing out you can't touch with your hands. they were on some kind of vellum where the oil on your hands, they bring them out in a plexiglass box, and tom is -- he's telling me -- he's turning the pages with like tweezers. and that almost -- several of our books we've actually interviewed the soldiers who were involved. but other times when we're going back to the 19th and 18th century, when tom can find diaries where a 12-year-old girl is writing, she made it across the oregon trail in utah and writing back to st. louis, well, paul got killed in wyoming and the next wagon train through said that wolves or indians had dug up his grave so we're going to have to go back and rebury him, that's almost like you're interviewing somebody. >> that's amazing. that would be the fun of it, too. it's like -- i mea

tom: thank you. coming up, germany's election race tightens with a new poll putting the social democrats ahead of chancellor angela merkel's coalition. we get the latest from berlin next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe and i'm tom mackenzie. the bavarian premier heads the key faction in chancellor unger merkel's conservative block has conceded that the alliance may fail to hit the goal of comfortably winning next month's election. this comes as a pull put the social democrats in the lead for the first time. maria tadeo joins us from berlin. how is the election shaping up? a lot of twists and turns in the last few days. >> yes. we were heading into the selection thinking, it is german politics, it will be a boring election. when you look at polls now, they point to an election that is much more open and volatile than we initially thought. we had a pull yesterday which is being presented as a shock pull. the cdu now gets overtaken by the spd and the social democrats

this is for tom. the past late of the final levels of the cfa analyst exam plunged to a historic low. only 42% of applicants past in may and june. the cfa institute says changes to test schedules to the to the pandemic and resulting disruptions to study habits hurt the pass rate. messy as a new team -- he has agreed to join paris saint ge rmain. he is considered one of soccer's all-time great and spent the entire year with barcelona. salary requirements prevent a new deal with the team. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> there are ways to address wealth inequality, and the fed does not have them. there is taxes, there are transfers. the fed cannot go this alone. the idea that raising interest rates a couple of basis points is going to fix a long-standing problem in the u.s. economy is ludicrous. tom: the always interesting claudia sahm. one of our g

tom: i get that. i take your point this is about private enterprise doing what they need to do in the pandemic given the national and international chaos, and they have to move their business forward and we heard from three gables that the corporate -- three great bulls that corporations will succeed. lisa: -- jonathan: is continuity, going into year end, that is the big effort. coming up, jerome schneider on short rates. very little fed speak this morning. welcome break from that. we'll pick that up on "the open." tom keene, lisa abramowicz jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is delivering on donald trump's pledge to bring u.s. troops home from afghanistan. he is also getting criticism at the taliban roles. the insurgents have been capturing capitals and imposing their fundament list ways. it is predicted insurgents could capture couple in 19 days. janet yellen is considering a chip to china -- a trip to china. it comes as the biden a

tom, let's continue. in football, you don't make substitutions when you are defending the set piece. that is rookie manager stuff. most people that follow the game understand that. a really important turn in policy, doesn't make sense to change the chairman of the federal reserve, considering where we might be in the next 12 months? tom: most including let's say liberal economists would say you are 100% correct, but so important with chairman powell is the change factor over 5, 10, 20 meanings and everyone agrees he has improved in conveying the message announced by clarity yesterday. not only do you have what you are talking about what you have a guy who has the wind behind him and seems to be doing better. jon: it depends who replaces him. i think most people would agree -- is the brains behind the market. i don't know many people who would bat an eyelid if chairman powell became chair brainard. to make change at this point the cycle is important. this is a cycle so finely balanced that opinions are mil

tom: i agree. we are getting a little bit of good news, maybe china supply can ease up or the margin can ease up. lisa, i take your point on the margin of this pandemic. goldman sachs did in their gdp marked down a couple of days ago. they started with the delta variant. lisa: this has become suddenly a new theme to marcus. i think we have been talking all week and this has more to do with tapering than the potential for shutdowns affecting supply chains and growth for longer. we are seeing that consistently. we also saw the downward surprise of retail sales following last friday's survey that came in at the lowest level since 2011. tom: the shift from 170 in may, to 112-ish and then that rollover through august has been extraordinary. next support year at 123. kailey leinz, the dollar is correlated. kailey: absolutely. the dollar is stronger for the fifth day in a row. this is versus the highs we saw last november. we were around these highs earlier in march where we saw yield speaking. now it is

and tom: we are grinding higher as well -- tom: and we are grinding higher as well. this is an important 25 minutes, and we want you briefed for what we will see at 8:30. it is wonderful to have him here from minnesota today. is there inflation in minneapolis, jim paulsen? jim: absolutely. it is cranking up come all the things you guys are talking about. if you go to the grocery store, my tea i drink every day -- tom: oh no, there is two tea drinkers on the show now? [laughter] jim: there's definitely inflation. gas, when i fill up, as back to close to $50 here again. i think bond markets probably started to pick up that up as well. jonathan: they have provided to the upside. do you think they remain insulated into the next year? jim: i still lean towards the transitory side of this, think transitory is going to prove longer than we expected, and even what the fed expected, and the result of that could be we are going to get pretty worried about inflation i think, and that could bring what finally gives him stock market reaction. the underlying cause of this is the r

tom: thank you so much. wonderful to begin a remembrance of september 11 with you on a tuesday in august. foreign affairs, who won the war on terror? cannot say enough about it. controversial essays to give perspective. particularly with all that is going on in afghanistan. futures of 54. lisa, which essay are you going to read first? lisa: i find it interesting the different nature of terrorism. there is domestic terrorism, cyber terrorism versus the physical brick and mortar, explosive terrorism that we experienced in 2001. all of these changing natures amid a world where the u.s. wants to pull back its international role. tom: brent crude almost to $70 a barrel. a huge move in the last two days. the equity market, there is a bid. wells fargo goes from cautious to upper single-digit optimism. that is of interest. futures up 8. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the british admit it is a longshot, but today they and other leaders will try to talk and president biden into leaving u.s. troops in afghanistan after

kailey: i do, tom. i have a wedding next weekend, and we already had some people saying it isn't the best time for me to be getting on with a big group of people, which i think is a concern. tom: kailey, that was ferro making it up. he is actually writing his meditation book. kailey: potentially, but i do think people have concerns about the variant, given how many breakthrough cases. even people activated are less confident. three senators tested positive after being fully vaccinated. tom: is the weekend still on to play your wedding? kailey: with no "e" at the end weekend? to be confirmed. tom: to be confirmed. we will see. kailey: we will miss miss kailey leinz next week at some point. lisa: at some point. kailey: potentially. lisa: [laughter] ♪ laura: with first word news, i am laura wright. in afghanistan, growing urgency to evacuate thousands who work for the u.s., western countries, and news organizations because of evidence that taliban is carrying out reprisals even after the leadership promi

tom: really? lisa: we were talking earlier, steve ricchiuto said he could say 10 year yield going below 1% if kids were not allowed to go back to school. at a certain point you have to get life back up and running. tom: along this line, moderna out moments ago, the third dose may be needed in the northern hemisphere this winter. lisa: interesting. tom: an on debate we will see. for somebody who grew up on booster shots, i'm like ok, you will need a booster shot. lisa: one thing we glossed over because of jobless claims data and that is very much front and center, the trade deficit fell to a record depending on how you look at it in the united states. this idea we have so much demand we have been imported more than more and we have not been exporting as much. that is significant in light of some of the trade issues that have come up that do not seem to be in effect in any way. tom: i think you are correct is how i would put it. i will look at the twin deficits, the trade deficit, the fiscal deficit

tom: but at 3:00 p.m. yesterday, i think the news was still flowing, and frankly, the news is flowing this morning. i believe it is eight not half hours -- eight and a half hours, somewhere towards the vicinity of 4:00 in the afternoon in kabul. jack fitzpatrick knows the time zones correctly. here is our bloomberg government reporter. an all in 9/11 cost of $6.4 trillion. are we going to have to budget for this debacle, or is there a debacle budget already in place? jack: there's more or less a debacle budget in place, at least with the early stages of this. there is sort of an outstanding question as to how many refugees are going to be coming to the u.s. the president mentioned pretty vaguely yesterday that he would be looking to help afghans at risk. there's not a number he provided . so the executive branch announced another $5 million to help refugees. the often is if they're going to be more than that, and if congress is going to have to act, and if this is going to get tied into the legislative age

tom: you see it in the quit rate. that was frankly what really caught my eye yesterday, the dynamics of the quit rate. but this is new terrain. we are really not used to this after 10 or 15 years. jonathan: the spread between demand and supply is wide. to close the gap is going to take a higher price. for the federal reserve, it's going to be some had scratches if that 4% figure rolls over into next year in a way that maybe that indent despite. let's get to your movers this morning. here's romaine. romaine: a lot of this is in the health-care space, specifically the covid vaccine space. biontech, moderna, pfizer, all of those closed at highs yesterday. a lot of this has to do with the forecast saying it would have about $16 billion in euros worth of covid vaccine sales this year . that is higher than what the company had been guiding for. they are basically saying the covid-19 vaccine is on pace to be there most successful medicine ever on a financial basis. we are still in the middle of a pandemic, but there is oppor

tom: there is real economic uncertainty about gdp. we will get some clarity on friday with the jobs report. lisa: and uncertainty when it comes to the equity markets. taylor, when, i am looking at the fact that we were poised for a 50 for the record high on the s&p 500 at what point does momentum beget momentum? taylor: you could argue both sides of that. we have got it,-down from the lift-off in the equity markets, but we could pull in some of the negatives. we just heard from marcus ashworth, right? where else are you supposed to go? bonds could be close to zero in your portfolio, after inflation basis, you are losing money. that back the question if that wall of money is flooding into equity markets. lisa: meantime, what has taken hold of this morning has been the potential of a sooner discussion on tapering. falling faster than expected in germany. an official saying that it has created a seachange when you look at bond yields. they are creeping higher on the back of that. you wonder, is this going to be some sort of tipping point

tom: smoke signals. lisa: i'm trying to imagine the two of you being camouflaged anywhere and i am finding it hilarious. there is no chance. jonathon: i have been shooting with matt miller before. never tom keene. i have a great patient with some shotguns. very matt miller. i don't know if it was very me, but it was very matt miller. tom: i am still getting over your realization of john denver lyrics. jonathon: i don't have the lyrics on the screen now so i cannot pretend. your equity market looks like this, we are unchanged this tuesday morning. 31.36 on 10. it is a no drama tuesday morning. tomorrow, things get more interesting with inflation data. lisa: there is more going on. i have to highlight some things that sarah house said. people are not going to see their kids going to school in full in september and that is going to keep these labor market pressures going. what does this mean for margin pressures? i know it is not a monolith, tom. each company has a different story. on the margins, this is g

tom: you know what? it is just not the same as sitting in the lodge and wondering out on the lawn to wave at the moose. i think they are most. maybe they are elk -- i think they are moose. maybe they are elk. i can't remember. the important thing is it is all going to hinge on the chairman's speech. i'm going to go where brian belski of bmo capital markets says taper is well overdone. taper could be good for the markets. futures up six come the vix, 17.29. turkish lira in. i've got to throw in audible here. what are you looking at an fx icu euro -- at in fx? i see euro. kailey: i was looking at the thai baht this morning because there's the idea that we are seeing peak covid cases in thailand. that was reading through to the optimism in the asian fx session. i wonder if we are starting to have a conversation about covid cases here in the u.s., what that would through -- what that readthrough will be to these markets. tom: it is amazing. she can mention thai baht, and i can bring it up for because that is

tom: let's get right to it. if you look at the standard deviations, of this equity market, two days in a row, we break out. lisa: a jump condition and production as analysts trying to increase all of their projections. the interesting thing to me is the yawning gap between some of the predictions. a 27% differential between the bears and the bulls for s&p protections. -- s&p projections. to give you a sense of how much uncertainty there is on wall street. tom: normally abramowitz wouldn't do that, but she does it for taylor riggs. taylor, how do you link the bar markets -- link the bond markets with the great bull market? taylor: i keep hearing calls that the yields have to go higher and then you have auctions like the 10 year option and it seemed like there is no alternative, not only when you talk about the equity market but them on market as well. it is foreign buyers as well that are keeping these yields low. yields feel pretty anchored despite the calls of yields to climb higher. tom: i'm looking forward to

tom: watch "ted lasso." jonathan: on radio come on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> the economy is recovering very strongly. fastest quarterly growth in the g7 group of countries, and evidence that our plan for jobs is working. but i am not complacent. the shocks that our economy and public finances have experienced is significant, and it will take us time to fully recover. jonathan: that was rishi sunak, the u.k. chancellor for the exchequer. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market this thursday morning shaping up as follows. record highs into thursday. your s&p 500 positive by 0.05%. next up for this market, 42 minutes away, the jobless claims in america. yields higher going into that, 1.3536%. yields up by a little more than two basis points today. tom: 30 year bond just over 2%. this is joy. part of david wilson's expertise in his book is a huge respect for at least studying what was canon and the old days, going back to richard russell and a guy named joseph gran

tom: thank you so much. peter trubowitz from the london school of economics, professor of international relations there. these are really difficult conversations. lisa: the idea he was illuminating, that we are looking at a president who wants to shift the focus back to the domestic agenda and withdraw focus from the international agenda did the last -- exact opposite over the last two weeks, and this will be a political misstep a lot of people will be talking about -- to what degree could have been avoided? tom: we have it on the "bloomberg surveillance" twitter feed. taylor, we got a bid to the markets. i do not know what else to say about it. maybe it is europeans this morning. taylor: we can always find blame where blame is due, but indeed we can call it a migrate northward if we want, really coming off strong buying off the end of last week. we know if the fed tapers, there is a big disconnect between that and lift off. you are seeing decent bidding to the market. 53, record highs if today holds. it is

everybody was a team player tom: tom:. stay healthy. david kotok, surely the street experts on collating and coalescing and all of the research on these medical issues. i do not know where to begin with the date as we summarize at 9:00. one thing we are doing i do not think we knew at 6:00 a.m., waiting to hear from the president. lisa: and next couple of days. david: can he go out -- tom: can he go out a couple of days? i don't think so. lisa: that is the report from the ministration. i think the china data overnight was significant. we saw something similar out of the empire manufacturing. what does jerome powell say in response to this? really important issues at a pivotal time of uncertainty. tom: futures -16, dow futures -124. the vix, 17.19. stay with us with our reporting from washington through the day. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ >> this is a special update from tennis channel. the sport superstars and back in cincinnati for one of the most popular spots on the pro tour. the russian took out djokovic on his way to the

it came as a bit of a shock to tom and i and i think tom is much more erudite at explaining why that is than i am so if you don't mind tom you want to tell him one of they probably don't know what i'm talking about. so i'm leaving it up to you to clean up my mess. i'll do what i can. yes something that you you referred to bob about the daniel boone is as our main character, but this is not a biography of him. maybe i can invite the viewers behind the curtain a little bit to to what writers and certainly us to as writers experienced. daniel boone was not our first thought by any means to be a main cat a main character. they main character in this book we had you know one of one of our books perhaps the book that we have gotten over the years the most feedback about is called the heart of everything that is and i know over the years it's been for sale there. what are more books? and the main character there is the sioux leader red cloud and the only indian leader to win a war against the us government not just a battle but a war. and for the most part just to sum up very quickly. the t