tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. we bounce back by 4/10 of 1% on the s&p. 80 euro-dollar -2/10 of 1%. tom: 1% move. [laughter] jonathan: i cannot take you seriously with your red socks. tom: this is bigger than the socks. a global audience says, what is the big deal? peter gamin's talking about the calvinism there from stockbridge to boston. let's look at red sox baseball. this is in the time of ted williams. for those on radio it is calvin in bed after the homerun in 1978. and the problem we have is yankee fans shopping for a fancy yankee paraphernalia. jonathan: goodness sake. is that an official new york yankees ralph lauren? tom: you can be sure the gentleman from brooklyn is a yankees fan as well. john, spirit of the moment and fun for everyone. jonathan: it is. there is a reason annmarie has not come back. she feels like she has been trolled by you. [laughter] tom: get a detroit tigers fan acting nice today. jonathan: president biden is blaming republicans. others are saying he is right. frame us what is going

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in an effort to help american workers and businesses. one u.s. official says china may not change its trade practices, and the u.s. needs a strategy that takes that into account. here in the u.k., chancellor richey soon at said he will spend $678 million to help people find jobs. household budgets are coming under strain after a cap on energy prices rose 12%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> we are going down from 6 trillion to 3 trillion, now one trillion. we have these conservatives that their baseline is zero. the agreement several months ago to proceed on that one bipartisan bill was that it was tied with our larger build back better agenda. both of these bills need to pass. both will not pass if people try to separate them. jonathan: congresswoman ocasio-cortez speaking there. yo

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. from new york city this morning, good morning. >> with the first word news, toyota plans to invest $3.4 million in the united states through 2030 to establish a new company and build its first u.s. factory plant. it will become the first automaker to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles through a factory push. the company says production will start in 2025. toyota does not disclose the location. facebook says it will create 10,000 new high skilled positions in europe within the next five years. that is part of the social media giants push -- the so called internet frontier the u.k. will miss out on. >> the e.u. is a fantastic way to be able to do business, considering the consumer market and the talent as well. it builds on the investments we have been making over the years, whether it is the research development we have on artificial intelligence in paris . >> facebook says target markets for hiring include ireland, germany, france, spain, poland and the netherlands. bitcoi

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, donovan ferro. futures up 15 on the s&p advancing a third of 1%. from new york city this morning, good morning. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. facebook lends a global power service outage. facebook, instagram and whatsapp were blind for hours. more than 2.7 billion people rely on them to communicate, do business. a facebook whistleblower is set to share what she calls the frightening truth with the senate committee today. the plants testify the social network misled the public and shareholders about the harmful effect of its platform. democrats may have to live with a less generous expansion then they wanted. they may have to scale back the cost of the economic agenda from $3.5 trillion to $2 trillion. that's cutting the cost of every program including the ones to state and local taxes known as salt. vladimir putin has public goods miss climate change for years and is now prodding officials to take the threats the country's economy more serious

jonathan ferro was describing the debt ceiling. how do we prosecute whatever foreign policy with our domestic front in such disarray. >> the short answer is can do it well. we are not predictable, we are not reliable. those were dependent upon security, they look at us and there is a wise choice. you mention some of my previous books. the book i'm writing now is on america's domestic turmoil, on the threats to american democracy. i think the greatest threat to our standing in the world to our standing at home is not china or north korea or iran or russia, it's ourselves. it begins here. tom: how do the moderates take the high ground. looking at the zany us of what it's done every day. how do we rediscover the middleground of american politics. >> by the answer to that i put it out there. we talk about redoing civics education, americans understand why democracy is valuable. we also need some profiles in courage. the republican performance on the debt ceiling is --. why are these centrist republicans following in a responsible path?

from new york city this morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. we are up 12 points going into numbers for jp morgan. the cpi in america, 8:30 a.m. eastern time. yields in. the curse of been flatter. we had 1.60. now we are back on 1.5629 on a 10-year yield, tom. crude holding onto that $80 handle, -.6%. tom: did we get to 1.62? i think so. so we are at five solid basis points. jonathan: some real curve flattening in yesterday's session. tom: i don't make light of it. it is usually important. right now, we're going to talk about the move down in washington, pelosi is 82 years old, and the republican from kentucky, john yarmuth, wait, he was a republican, then he switched to the democratic party. he became very lonely, more lonely tomorrow at 73 essie announces his retirement. annmarie hordern is here on a democratic party that is falling apart. we have seen this script before. annmarie: as you say, he was the lone democrat in the kentucky congressional representation, so this is a very important seat. we should say,, louisville, as well, though, b

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. >> with first word news, brinkmanship is on capitol hill bringing the united states closer to a catastrophic default. democrats and republicans must decide in the next day or two how far to take their deadlock over the debt limit. senate republicans plan to bulk another, credit effort to raise limit. the former united nations ambassador nikki haley is setting the tone for a possible presidential race in a speech at the reagan library in california. she urged republicans to return to their roots. at the same time, haley defended president trump and promised to consult with him on the 2024 race. in hong kong, there were plans to develop the border with china. more than 900,000 homes will be built to ease a housing crisis that has led to social unrest. they want to develop the area with intelligence and technology. tesco plans to buy back shares to boost his pop debts profit ability. his lackluster stock performance -- tesco's price has trailed private equity firms as

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. congressional democrats have made headway in breaking the stalemate over president biden's economic agenda by getting rid of or trimming parts of the multitrillion dollar tax and spending package. progress came after the president met with various lawmakers yesterday. expected targets for cuts include tuition free community college and a shortening of the expanded child tax care reddit stench of -- tax care credit extension. able kino -- a volcano in southern japan erupted. the bundesbank president stepping down from his post at the end of the year. a statement from the central bank says he submitted his resignation to the german president for personal reasons. the 53-year-old has been germany's central bank chief for more than a decade and is considered one of the more hawkish members of the european governing council. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than

jonathan: johns hopkins professor and virologist there. tom keene, jonathan ferro. kailey leinz. lisa back with us tomorrow. -.5% on the s&p. yields higher in germany by four basis points to -11. we start to have that conversation about the road back to zero. u.s. bond market closed. the fx market euro-dollar 1.1565. up almost 3%, 81 point $66 on wti. the highest since the back end of 2014. tom: oil front and center. the metrics i use is aaa unleaded. it's set at a rather low 3.18. i would calculate 3.58 a gallon is where the pain sits in. on to covid, where i sit things are getting better. where i sit is not the rest of america. it is a world of vaccine protest, whether in rome this weekend, in australia again, and others around the world. the oddity in america of possible vaccine protest by businesses and by their employees. joshua sharfstein joins us from johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. are you surprised by vaccine protest? joshua: i am not surprised given how polarized the pandemic has been over last year and a half. i think we have to realize that when there

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. the beginning of the end of easy money. >> squarely on track for the fed to taper. >> close to peking. >> the field has been tilted too long to borrowers. >> inflation will run hotter and for longer. >>

and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures bouncing back .4% on the s&p. bond yields higher by one basis point. we keep going back to this group move, the highest since late 2014. up another 1%. summing things up is kit jukes at socgen. markets are moody, depressed, and sensitive to the shortening amount of daylight in the northern hemisphere. tom, does that resonate with you? tom: i thought it had a real red sox tinge to it. jonathan: moody, depressed, sensitive to the shortening men of daylight. i get sensitive to the shortening men of daylight. i'm a sensitive kind of guy. tom: i can feel that. jonathan: darker and darker. record trade deficit. lisa wants to get serious. lisa: sorry to jump in. this is fascinating because the tray discussions are ramping up between the u.s. and china. the u.s. wants goods and people are not getting them fast enough. we are importing more than we are exporting. this has a lot to do with china. jonathan: ahead of talks with china on several levels. can they achieve something th

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." coming up, inflation warnings. american economic data sending conflicting signals and markets pricing and early fed move. we begin with wall street heavyweights pushing back. >> the idea of transitory -- >> transitory-- persistent transitory. >> inflation is running at a must -- much higher pace. >> it is not temporary. >> that is why the fed is starting to indicate it is time to move. >> the rise in wages -- >> not transitory -- >> the longer they wait, the greater the risk. jonathan: joining us now is krishna memani, marilyn watson, and matt brill. it is with the economic data, i have been scratching my head or try to reconcile this. near record highs, consumer sentiment highest since 2011 pick and make sense of that? marilyn: it is very complex. when you look at the labor market and the rate, it is below for break 2020. however, i do think we will start to see easing in the labor market, when you think on appointment insurance is running off we are seeing more people able to reente

jonathan: you watch it for us. lisa: i will. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. housing data just around the corner. mike mckee to break that down. this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards. so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go

it was someone named jonathan ferro. a dramatic central bank taking out by who was chairman with a massive french education. from where you sit in your decade of watching the ecb, how cultural is this? jonathan: there's been a massive shift. in early 2011, the then chair of the bundesbank was a leading candidate to take over the ecb. there were some -- there was a real pushback that started to build up. he resigned, it was unexpected. the idea being that the president spot was open for someone and then all of a sudden you introduce president draghi and from that point to totally changed and the ecb was no longer just a reflection of the bundesbank, became something much bigger. it went way past that and here we are today. tom: research of deutsche bank led by david, of the originality of negative interest rates. let's dive into this right now. julia coronado, she is truly an academic of the fed working in market economics with the knowledge of -- as well. would you suspect he left because of the transition to something n

jonathan: lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. equity market up 0.3%. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) if you've struggled to lose weight, you might think you were born with a slow metabolism, but what you may have is insulin resistance. fat becomes trapped inside your body and it becomes very difficult to lose weight. now there's golo. golo works to reverse the effects of insulin resistance, increase metabolic efficiency, and targets stubborn belly fat. join over two million people who have found a smarter way to lose weight and get healthier. go to golo.com and change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jonathan: live from new york city on radio and tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. here is price action for you. equity market up 19. nasdaq, up by 0.3%.four days of gains on the s&p. within 1% of all-time highs. here is a single name -- danone. their stock is down. this from the cfo, we expect 2020 to on the same level as -- we expect 2022 on the same level as 2021. stock trading -- that stock trading negative in france. let us quickly finish on the bond

jonathan ferro is briefing me on the united kingdom. are we ready for another global set of lockdowns? jens: we look at cases, hospitalizations, fatalities. we have to look at the whole picture. we are at a part of cycle where just the cases will give a different picture about how severe this is. this does not translate to hospitalizations in the same degree. if you look at what's going on now, you are right that there are spikes in eastern europe. i will give you an antidote. romania stalled their backs -- sold their vaccines to denmark a couple months ago because they did not want to use them themselves. in some countries where the vaccination rates are very low they will have issues in the winter. and a different group of countries where we have very high vaccination rates and hospital pressure will be very much lower than previous cycles. we will have pockets of winter waves where they are behind on vaccinations. you will find that this wave that we are facing now is going to be having much less of an impact. jonathan: we hope so. t

jonathan: i am in for jonathan ferro, and this is real yield. we are going to take things off. $133 billion in short notes, and investors demand has improved on the seven-year sale this week. let is been an onslaught of degradation slowing, but we are seeing this fueled the biggest october in four years. there is a little bit of a sour ending to a busy month and jump on sales. with an additional $4 billion in sales, it is the slowest week in february since february. great, let me start with you. some of the losses you've seen in credit, is that a function of rising rates, or is there something sinister going on with this fundamental? >> i don't think it is sinister. taylor: i said that for halloween. >> i think things are quite good, and this is not a story where fundamentals are deteriorating. it is not a negative fundamental story. i think it is quite frankly, volatility happening around the seams of treasury. it is causing investors to take a step back. i would not read too much into it. at the same time, the value proposition of credit elsew

kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro. he -- we will get to the equity story in a moment. lisa, i'm thrilled to speak with you about this standard deviation move flattening curve. the real yield on most a jumping condition to a new negative statistic and what absolutely stuns me here is it's a hawkish dawn. >> i look at canada setting the tone for the market yesterday surprisingly ending the quantitative easing purchases bringing forward the rate hike expectations paid are they a harbinger of what's to come at other central banks or are they independent. this is one of the key questions on the precipice of next week's fed meeting. >> george says the macro analysis, we will do the ecb today, out the window, this is about risk. what that means is positioning. how would a filter is this. >> over the last three days we've seen volatility in the short-term rates of the developed markets globally. shocking move talking about standard deviation. how much of this is a complete inability for wall street houses to gauge central-bank reaction function. a time of faster inflation and

jonathan: tom keene and jonathan ferro with kaylee. your equity market is at an all-time high into friday. seven-day gains into friday. they are of three .1%. a couple of basis points, but it is a two-year hike to get your attention. the i -- market is implying a maturity of inflation. from new york, this is bloomberg. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience on tv and radio, this is jonathan ferro alongside tom keene, and lisa will be back with us on monday. this morning, we are with kaylee. the market is up 1/10 of 1%. the bond market is getting all of the attention. yields are down even with all-time highs, and the bond strategist on the front end of the yield curve, higher inflation expectations, as well. it is a sharp break even. we are breaking back max into thousand two. this is the breakeven, and what it is is tracking the real yield curve from the closest nominal treasury maturity, so let's take fives on fives, and you come up with just short of three. we had three earlier. that is the implied rate of inflation on ma

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz

jonathan: alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equities just a little bit softer. record highs again at the close on tuesday. into the bond market, yields are lower by couple of basis points, 1.5887. and crude, a lot of weakness in the commodity complex this morning, crude 83.54, negative 1.3%. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. democrats are trying a new and risky approach to get jeff bezos to pay for president biden's agenda. those with at least $1 billion in assets and those who earn at least $100 million three years in a row. meanwhile, a separate tax would require companies that report more than $1 billion in profit to pay at least a 15% tax rate. president biden is zeroing in on whether to renominate jerome powell for another term as chair of the federal reserve. the president has started to meet with top white house and treasury aids to review candidates. he has not settled on a choice, and it is unclear whether he is leaning toward reappointing powell or replacing him. bloomberg has learned that the maker

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: sperry thought for an equity market bear. -- spare a thought for an equity market bear. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up 22, up another 0.5% on the s&p. it is a four-day winning streak, within one present from all-time highs. tom: the way we do it this way is an impulse. must watch, must listen in minutes, gina martin adams will discuss and link this into earnings like netflix this afternoon. jonathan: we've had that big churn beneath the surface. a lot going on. at the index level, is it fair to say this is one resilient equity market, tom? tom: the gloom crew has been crushing it. we heard this morning about sluggish growth in inflation, and maybe you can indoor from that. this idea of slug-flation. jonathan: we are staring down all-time highs on the s&p 500. the least bullish survey from the bank of america fund managers survey in a year. nixon's of that. lisa: if you tamp -- make sense of that. lisa: if you tamp down inflation, it pushes do

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this hour, morgan stanley. next hour, citi. tom: the gloom crew gets a pause this morning. it's been a really good tape for two and a half days. to walk into the washington studios and see the vix under 18 is a big deal. jonathan: the doom crew gets a challenge. the transitory crew increasingly has a bigger challenge on their hands, too, going into year end. tom: lagarde making headlines, the president of the european central bank. the second round is a really distressing thing. when they take a second round at the university of cambridge, e 0 -- of cambridge, el-erian goes nuts. what is second round? are we substituting second-round for the even squishier transitory? jonathan: that's the story for inflation at the moment. yesterday i think the cpi, you can't get away from that number. lisa: if you look at the fed meeting minutes, federal reserve officials are planning to potentially end their purchases by the middle of next year. i question this morning, how much is the market endorsing the idea of sooner rate

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive 0.1% on the s&p. earnings coming tomorrow. tom: i am going to say it is a modest pullback over the last number of days. i did the chart for francine earlier this morning. we are basically at a july 21 level, and we have to reset. it begins tomorrow. jonathan: the market worried about higher interest rates and supply chain issues. a haven so far over the last couple of months. the banks have been rallying hard going into numbers tomorrow morning and through the rest of this week. tom: the banks talk about recovery and use of cash. that will be a huge part of the discussion, not only the banks, but everybody else. what i see more and more is there simply two camps looking at the same narratives and saying we are going to get over this fear. others saying they have a persistency that is unmeasurable. jonathan: up 10% on the kbw banks index since september 22. that is quite a run. lisa: how much is it predicated on a steeper yield curve, and what happens if we

tom: coming off a vault -- jonathan: coming off all-time highs, from new york, i'm jonathan ferro, equity futures heading lower, yields on the basis point around 22 and so far, so good. mcdonald's, coca-cola, general motors, we will catch up with mary barra a little bit later. heading to westminster briefly, you think we are doing this for me? we are not. we do this for tom. chancellor sumac delivering what is traditionally called the autumn statement. what you get from them twice a year, tom, is the updated forecast from the office of budget responsibility and an upgrade to the forecast. upgrade to the forecast of 21, looking for 4% growth, now 6.5%. the economy could grow in 2022 and here's what's original about this moment in the u.k. compared to other places, better growth ahead is find, but this is the commentary from sumac, we need to strengthen the public finances. underlying net debt must be falling as a percentage of gdp. that, tom, is where the focus already is for this chancellor. i have to say there is a bit of daylight here, a fiscal hawk compared to this prime minister. tom:

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we are down about one third of 1% on the s&p 500. claims dropped nicely. the estimate, 2.97. so good to see these numbers south of 300. the estimate, 297 the previous three, 293. if you are interested in the fed outlook, the estimate 25, the previous number 30.47 -- 34.7. claims coming down. the slow grind, you talked about the slow, persistent grind lower in that basis point. tom: the persistence was back to february and it was a point of tension, and down we go. what is important in this high frequency data, we've had very constructive weeks trending down, trying to get down. i'm going to say normal, long ago and far away, with something under 2.20 or 2.10 with a shock of under 2.00 but 2.90 is not far from the nirvana of where we are. jonathan: the market looks like this, down 10 on the s&p, -2/10 of 1%. the dow jones, yields higher by a basis point on the 10, 1.67. in the fx market, euro just a touch weaker, euro-dollar 1.1 640. it is always onto the fed speak. tom: november 5 i b

jonathan ferro is off and kailey leinz is in. i wonder, as we talk about the geopolitics, how inflation really is the backdrop as we get higher than expected inflationary expectations. tom: we have been a little bit off the market coverage today, we will try to get back on track now. to your point on inflation, lisa, what i suggest for the world leaders in rome, and onto the 30,000 people in glasgow, what i would suggest is inflation is different in many different areas. not just american inflation. lisa: well said. tom: did i do ok? lisa: honestly, with the euro region, what we have seen with the ecb is they are dealing with imports. and the inflationary print is more disinflationary than in the u.s. quite but how does that factor into discussions about supply chain disruptions, about how to alleviate this at a time when there are other issues present. tom: and we are setting up for that year and dash -- end dash, i love what michael purves said, the beta chase. lisa: it is meta, ask mark zuckerberg. i think it raises a question

10:00 a.m., labor secretary marty walsh speaking with our very own jonathan ferro. he's going to be speaking about what to expect with how sticky wage pressures are, how to create a virtual wage increase spiral because it takes more than one, two, three years of increases in wages before we get that. at 11:30 am, we hear from president biden, busy on absolutely everything right now. he wants to talk about how great the labor market is, but that it still needs work. he will try to push forward his agenda and give us a sense of how much of a reprieve we got with the geeking of the can to december -- the kicking of the can to december. tom: i think this is underrated. we have had a vix go from near 25 down onto 20 in the last number of days -- down under 20 in the last number of days. it is a pre-payroll draw up. and by the politics. jonathan: kicking the can to december 3 helped that as well. tom: we are all being fed analysts instead of looking at the markets, which are very constructive. jonathan: can we get to the queen of rates? priya misra joining us now, td secu

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this wednesday, futures -53, down on the s&p 1.2 percent. on the nasdaq, down 1.4%. tom: it is moving out there. you go to the currency dynamics as well. what about the thundering silence of the weak dollar crew? it is stunning how that has stopped. jonathan: strong dollar this morning. you by the greenback, you by the u.s. dollar -- you buy the greenback, you buy the u.s. dollar. some indicators showing the tension. it folds into washington as well. our guest coming up has really pushed against weak dollar for months and months. mark mccormack looks like a genius. jonathan: is it fair to say the epicenter of all of this is energy? lisa: natural gas in particular. when you take a look at the united kingdom, prices absolutely surging. but there's a bigger story here, and that is the transition of the economy at a time of a perfect storm. how many times have we talked about supply chain disruptions, a pandemic, and a transition to greener energy? jonathan: what happened to september? li

trading, this is bloomberg: deal been with jonathan ferro -- bloomberg: the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york we begin with a big issue -- wall street heavyweights pushing back. >> unless you embrace the analytically meaningless phrase of " transitory." >> worker shortages. >> this inflation round is not transitory. >>

i'm jonathan ferro. or equity markets are unchanged on the s&p 500. tom: it's a big deal. i shifted. as you know, you frame it from that statistic. it's just a number. what if we come in a little bit below it? jonathan: for that question, what does it take the greenline on? tom: or to move the markets. jonathan: i've heard 200 k is the number. thereabouts. tom: 1.5 nine, yields of ramped up since the last time you and i were together. jonathan: that was creepy. tom: it's friday. stay with us. lisa: if you look at the 10 year, that's interesting. the two-year is the highest since march 2020. the idea here is people are bringing forward the expectation for a taper because of what you said. 200,000 is the threshold for them to change tactics. do we get a flattening it? jonathan: i've got no idea. you are troubled today. let's start with the equity markets. 159 .95 is the session high. yields are up a couple of basis points. they are just off session highs at the moment. the euro-dollar, one hunt 15.68. wti crude, staring down 80. lisa: i would love to talk about that, the u.s

good morning, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and i am jonathan ferro. tom keene put it in a headline, the week begins on wednesday. tom: it begins tomorrow. the inflation picture with all its complexities. jonathan: it is a test for the big story we have discussed for week, the upside risks for inflation. the upside risk for inflation. tom: the conversation we had yesterday was important. he implied we need to be very careful. you can get back to a 4%, nominal gdp. that is a topline gdp. i don't think anybody is mentally prepared for that. jonathan: we can pretend it is a monday and welcome back in lisa and brahma wits. -- risa abramowitz. -- lisa abramowicz. lisa: the idea that consumer sentiment is declining and this, white is confidence in the reflation story picking up and we are seeing small is this optimism, disappointing. people's optimism seems to be waning on a consumer level. what gives? jonathan: look out for the fed speak. lisa will give you the day ahead. the s&p 500, totally unchanged, advancing a single point. outside of that, yields in o

with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with cracks in the transitory narrative. >> we know we have inflation. >> inflation is rising. >> ratcheting iron every day. >> as we start to see numbers take hold. >> it is no

i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market is up. yields on the basis point -- earnings from 3m, from ge, and the numbers from them and ups so far so good. that is the equity market story. foreign-exchange -- euro-dollar is unchanged, 0.05%. 8421 -- tom keene in nebraska, 330 on saturday. ask management if we can expense the trip. it will be less than your daily uber's. that is the official response. i thought that was kind. lisa: [laughter] yeah. tom: i like that, jon. we were remiss on earnings and we like to cover globally. i count five different kinds of people that watch and come in future is come party of italy. -- is compari of italy, they are up each year for the last decade. i am sorry, the gloom and worried that is out there -- and worry that is out there, some brands just grind it out. revenue is up over the year, just another work -- another example of people getting it done. lisa: is this really the same story? the alcohol companies have crushed it during the pandemic. right? that has been the story in general. carry-on.

this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. mcwhorter, same issue. -- same issue. >> the trajectory of growth. >> growing anxiety. >> historically, september, october and november have been volatile months. >> the story is the same. >>

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. time to go to the auction block. in europe, raising 34 billion euros this week, a green sovereign offering in the u.k. and worst ever twenty-year auction in the u.s. this week, missing the mark. and carnival returning to the junk bond market, upsizing its offer and pushing weaker supply close to $8 million. my colleagues include zach, still with us, and mike collins. bank of america coming out with this data the week, turkey cutting rates, it is the 1000th rate cut, a cut once every three trading days. all we have seen is hikes. can you tell me what is happening in the emerging markets? mike: china will be joining the rate cut story. china is always the big story in emerging markets. and they are, unfortunately, slowing really quickly. it's not just the property sector, some of it is secular, tighter regulations, but certainly they are outsized relative to other their measure of economic activity. and as the air comes out of that, the rates are at 3%, they will have to come down. but

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. earnings season is underway. >> earnings. >> earnings. >> earnings season. >> but start with what is happening. >> supply chain disruption. >> are companies going to eat these costs or will they be able to pass it along in terms of higher prices? >> which companies have pricing power. >>

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. onto the jobs report tomorrow, we do it with a better market. it is a draw up. jonathan: we are trading on verbal intervention, not trading on resolutions. tom: very nice. jonathan: that is really important to draw a distinction between what is happening here. we are kicking the can in washington, d.c. a bit of verbal intervention. right now, i don't see any resolutions. so sentiments better, yes, but there's a lot still to address. tom: we've had the correction, which was a non-correction, down whatever number you want to use, 6%, 7%, 8%. the back story is there is still a wall of money looking for a warm spot. jonathan: do we need things to get better or stop getting worse? the shipping bottleneck problems are officially going mainstream. as usual, that probably means the worst is behind, even if it means it will take some time to resolve. tom: tea leaves for the morning, liz ann sonders does it with her team and a great set of charts. finally, shanghai to l.a. cargo rose over -- ca

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro prayed all-time high for the equity market. up another four tents of 1%, up 20 points on the session in the earning this morning are looking ok. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with the 98% success rate and the more affordable weight loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. how can golo offer all of that? because it's not like any of those diets you've already tried. it's the new way to lose weight. no stimulants, no starving, just results. results you'll keep for life. no more sacrificing to lose weight only to put it back on. no more sacrificing, period. it improves your lifestyle and delivers incredible results. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. this is the only program i have ever done that i have never deprived myself of anything. (announcer) if what you're currently doing to lose weight isn't working, or you feel like diets don't work, you're righ

. ♪ jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield. it is time for the auction block, with thermo fisher leading the way. sales of u.s. investment rates topping forecast this week. and junk-bond sales getting a big boost from energy companies this week, rushing to market, capitalizing on surging crude prices and robust demands. back with us, bob michele, bob miller, and winnie, straight to you. walk me through when you think the story hits the market. bob miller saying maybe we neutralized the impact of the treasury market. what is your thought on that? >> i think it is important, but you have to take a step back and think, what else is available in the broader universe of fixed income? because despite the fact that there might be a little give and take of neutralization in the treasury market, i do think we will continue to see robust corporate credit issuance and issuance across the board of fixed income, so it can still go up a bit and be a compelling place for issuers to be borrowing capital. as we start to see more of these moving

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. gas prices fueling inflation jitters. >> inflation is more persistent. >> going from transitory to being here for a while. >> oil and natural gas prices. >> gas prices pushing extremely high. >> gas prices skyrocketing. >> inflation is hot. >> you will see inflation rise. >> inflation is not going down. >> we have persisted inflation. >> this is

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. supply-side fears. >> this mindset has to move decisively away from thinking that our problem is sufficient aggregate demand. >> the real question will be on the supply side. >> the vent -- the demand will be there. >> supply is falling faster than demand. >> there is no quick catch up in terms of revenue. >> there are questions about third-quarter earnings. >>

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: i am alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we had down .25%. we are trying to set up for the season. tom: we need the earnings. it really gets by. as you say, we get to a most unusual earnings season. it is compared to the caution of morgan stanley. jonathan: will they take a bite out of profit? we saw it in fedex as well. tom: and what will happen to revenues versus the pricing of the revenue point? enormous mystery there. jonathan: powerful stuff. the big question for the fed, will pay rules pay for it? lisa: higher prices are bleeding into confidence. you do wonder how they deal with these competing issues. jonathan: we shape up as follows. we had down about one third of 1%. yields are higher. .2%, a stronger euro. lisa: we are climbing to new highs in oil. i'm really watching factory orders that we will be getting for the month of august and durable goods orders. this comes as companies are trying to stock up before christmas. how much i you going to see those lag tim

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is not the earnings season the bears were hoping for. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up another 0.4%. the earnings so far, so good. tom: the vix under 15. there's a reaffirmation today that is very different than five days ago, 10 days ago. more earnings coming in. tina martin adams and the others we have talked to have said, you know what? the sum total of the earnings and revenues up. jonathan: the big tech players after the bell. microsoft, google. then onto apple. apple was in the news because of the supply chain story, a struggle to meet demand. we thought that would really define this quarter. so far, it hasn't. margins have held up. that has been the story of the year so far. tom: i think the powerpoint, buried in it, you see the reality of ge aviation. their fleet is down 18%. that is their calcul

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive five on the s&p, up a little more than 0.1%. jp morgan first out of the gate. tom: i think it is being underplayed. everyone looks at the stock price and says so what. they are doing fine. i thought dames diamond -- i thought james dimon's opening salvo, forget the gloom. jonathan: if you had a headline, things are improving. lisa: however, there is another headline underneath some of the numbers, and that is lending. average lending going up, being driven by the corporations, not consumers. you are still not skin consumer loan growth. to me, that indicates this question mark around how much resilience there will be. jonathan: the equity market not doing much of the back of this. equity futures on the s&p advancing five points, up a little more than 0.1%. 8:30 eastern time with cpi in america. going into that, yields lower by a basis point or two to 1.56 12%. let's check in with bloomberg's sonali basak. year-over-year, the comps really quite tough. just ru

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: just pulling back from all-time highs. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. your equity markets after by 13, down 0.3%. this run has been pretty tidy. we've had a series of execution after execution in earnings season. does it validate where we are priced or inspire further gains? tom: against the gloom crew, it has been a tidy set of days. i would suggest the news flow this morning incredibly nuanced around the waiting for earnings season. jonathan: we are waiting for a few more earnings later this week. we have been doing this in the face of conversations about higher rates, slower china. if you told me in august that some timber would not develop into the september we hoped it would be, that supply chain issues would start to heal, that did not happen. maybe it is next september. here we are staring down the barrel of all-time highs again. i would not have guessed that in the summer. tom: i am afraid to go back and look at the tapes of ho

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. agnostic, right. coming up on the open, monica dicenso. looking forward to that conversation later this morning. equity futures up a little more than a 10th of 1% on the s&p. nasdaq 100 futures advanced 131%. yields unchanged. a turnaround in the commodity market -- nasdaq 100 futures advanced one third of 1%. euro-dollar negative for little more than a 10th of 1%. the week begins tomorrow with j.p. morgan earnings kicking off earnings season. retail sales coming up on friday as we work our way through earnings on wall street. from new york on radio and on tv, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: general motors says south korea's electronics has agreed to pay for the recall of chevy volt electric vehicles due to manufacturing defects in the battery modules and lg was the battery supplier. gm says the agreement will offset $2 billion in charges. in washington is that up to the house to avert the immediate threat of a catastrophic default . lawmakers are scheduled to vote on a short-term increase to the govern

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after five days of gains. we are almost there. tom: jacob kirkegaard this hour, the interview of the day. i'm looking at the earnings come in. i will defer to gina martin adams, david wilson, and our great equity strategists who come on the show, but to me, it is earnings glass half-full. jonathan: another developer hitting the wall. chinese home prices falling for the first time in six years. there's a real slowdown developing their. tom: i want to listen to leland miller and others about the real pulse of the chinese economy. i will be honest, i am simply confused. jonathan: tom is not the only one. we are all confused at the moment. lisa: not just on the slowdown in the housing market, but the ripple effects for the broader economy globally. consider the fact that the housing market in china counts for about 1/3 of the overall economy. it shows a deceleration in one of the hottest spots in china's economy for many years. jonathan: whe

jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with a big issue, democrats looking to wrap up a deal. >> it does not excite me that much. >> it is going to be lower than $3.5 trillion. 50% of that. >> we are in that ballpark. >> the trick is how to pay for it. >> corporate taxes may be off the table. >> how are they going to pay for this? >> other tax possibilities. >> it concerns me. >>

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this hour, morgan stanley.