tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. we bounce back by 4/10 of 1% on the s&p. 80 euro-dollar -2/10 of 1%. tom: 1% move. [laughter] jonathan: i cannot take you seriously with your red socks. tom: this is bigger than the socks. a global audience says, what is the big deal? peter gamin's talking about the calvinism there from stockbridge to boston. let's look at red sox baseball. this is in the time of ted williams. for those on radio it is calvin in bed after the homerun in 1978. and the problem we have is yankee fans shopping for a fancy yankee paraphernalia. jonathan: goodness sake. is that an official new york yankees ralph lauren? tom: you can be sure the gentleman from brooklyn is a yankees fan as well. john, spirit of the moment and fun for everyone. jonathan: it is. there is a reason annmarie has not come back. she feels like she has been trolled by you. [laughter] tom: get a detroit tigers fan acting nice today. jonathan: president biden is blaming republicans. others are saying he is right. frame us what is going

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. from new york city this morning, good morning. >> with the first word news, toyota plans to invest $3.4 million in the united states through 2030 to establish a new company and build its first u.s. factory plant. it will become the first automaker to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles through a factory push. the company says production will start in 2025. toyota does not disclose the location. facebook says it will create 10,000 new high skilled positions in europe within the next five years. that is part of the social media giants push -- the so called internet frontier the u.k. will miss out on. >> the e.u. is a fantastic way to be able to do business, considering the consumer market and the talent as well. it builds on the investments we have been making over the years, whether it is the research development we have on artificial intelligence in paris . >> facebook says target markets for hiring include ireland, germany, france, spain, poland and the netherlands. bitcoi

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. coming off the back of the biggest weekly loss since february. investors worldwide gearing up for earnings season. tom: i'm going to take that over payrolls. payrolls will be important. i like what john stauffer said this morning. moments ago, he said we get a sense of what lies ahead with selective late reporters this week. those names will get us in the big banks october 13. jonathan: capturing the argument of the debate almost perfectly. the risk is supply chain disruption persists, and these expected earnings that you could recoup in future quarters will not happen. is this a story of recovery delayed or derailed? tom: i don't know. i think it will go sector to sector and company to company. which sectors will get hammered by supply issues and which will not? jonathan: 400 70 k, just eight 500 k spread. -- 470k, just a 500k spread. lisa: when we talk about earnings, i wonder what the pressure is at the federal reserve. do they raise rates or pare purchases as the economy slows? to

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. here's the price action. 16 points on the s&p, up by 4/10 of 1%. a little bounce on the s&p 500. we are down from your previous high on the s&p. it's a draw down it's ugly out there. up a basis point per the fx market euro weaker 116 -- 1.1601. he did not care about this market today. he cares about one thing. it is red sox yankees. tom: this is all there is to it. we've already had a surveillance correction this morning. al from new jersey called in and said -- i have no idea lisa: have you ever worn that hat before? jonathan: are you implying it does not fit? lisa: carry on. tom: your standard red sox hat. we go to annmarie hordern. let's go to the board and explain what matters today. this is bill white on wpi yaks. the older will not get it, it's a home run. a three run home run. the yankees now lead it by a score of 3-2. when you see tonight? >> i think it's at the edge for the pictures. i cannot take it seriously with his hat on. i will be wearing my yankees collaborate jacket.

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> live from new york city, on radio and tv, this is berg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan euro and lisa abramowicz, and the s&p is really making a statement around these levels for the last year and year-and-a-half areas we are going nowhere this morning. it is a bomb market. 160 2.67. jonathan: is this a big deal? tom: i think it is. exit london. they are taking the traders to milan. was clarify the exit. i think you're right when out the tray. it is most luncheon traders are headed towards milan. early planning is to move most london traders to milan. jonathan: we have the details. of a chat with them and reach out to them in with them. tom: were going to set up with matthew was steady. deutsche bank is doing good. good luck with that. but it is important to talk about the changes in the dynamics of the fed policy and economic growth. you have a comment. jonathan: here's a quote. with the committee sensitive to higher-than-expected inflation data from ea

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. equity market up 16. four date winning streak on the s&p and we add to it. in the bond market, we reverse things a bit. yields lower. lisa, how much fed speak is there today? lisa: it is ridiculous. jonathan: chairman powell is a bit later. lisa: i was going to go down the list and then i realized it sounded bad. jonathan: on crude, 1.52%. tom: t commodity story is there. he other metals in a moment. the equity market -- the bears have been humbled. a bit going on in washington as people we gauge and adjust. joe mathieu joins us this morning. joe, i look at catherine wrangell in the washington post talking about the actual realities of something is a sick and simple as childcare -- of something as basic and simple as childcare. how do people in suits and ties actually write a bill about childcare? that underscores how distant america is to a social contract we see in europe. what does leadership do about that? joe: they would love to know. it might come to fruition today at the white house, as president b

from new york city this morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. we are up 12 points going into numbers for jp morgan. the cpi in america, 8:30 a.m. eastern time. yields in. the curse of been flatter. we had 1.60. now we are back on 1.5629 on a 10-year yield, tom. crude holding onto that $80 handle, -.6%. tom: did we get to 1.62? i think so. so we are at five solid basis points. jonathan: some real curve flattening in yesterday's session. tom: i don't make light of it. it is usually important. right now, we're going to talk about the move down in washington, pelosi is 82 years old, and the republican from kentucky, john yarmuth, wait, he was a republican, then he switched to the democratic party. he became very lonely, more lonely tomorrow at 73 essie announces his retirement. annmarie hordern is here on a democratic party that is falling apart. we have seen this script before. annmarie: as you say, he was the lone democrat in the kentucky congressional representation, so this is a very important seat. we should say,, louisville, as well, though, b

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. >> with first word news, brinkmanship is on capitol hill bringing the united states closer to a catastrophic default. democrats and republicans must decide in the next day or two how far to take their deadlock over the debt limit. senate republicans plan to bulk another, credit effort to raise limit. the former united nations ambassador nikki haley is setting the tone for a possible presidential race in a speech at the reagan library in california. she urged republicans to return to their roots. at the same time, haley defended president trump and promised to consult with him on the 2024 race. in hong kong, there were plans to develop the border with china. more than 900,000 homes will be built to ease a housing crisis that has led to social unrest. they want to develop the area with intelligence and technology. tesco plans to buy back shares to boost his pop debts profit ability. his lackluster stock performance -- tesco's price has trailed private equity firms as

lisa abramowicz is with us. michael mckee, as we roll out economic data, am i right that this is more important than the gdp look yesterday? michael: it gives us the latest spending numbers. at this point, what we can see his personal income was down by 1%. i'm going to look at the numbers, but i bet can tell you where that is, that will come from government transfer payments. personal spending was up 6/10 of 1%. the headline number, we are up 3/10 of 1% for the month. this is the number that is in the fed's mandate, their target, that is the topline number. but the core stays at 3.6% after a 2/10 percent increase, with expectations, although we thought we would get to 3.7%. so, basically, we have plateaued with the inflation numbers that the fed watches. tom: lisa committed to you have any understanding of what might -- lisa, do you have any understanding of what michael just said? lisa: people are earning less. but what caught my attention is the employment index, how much of the wages are going up or how much

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive zero point 8%. we advanced 36 points. a can kick set up downing d.c. -- set up down in

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. your equity markets slightly negative, down 5 on the s&p, down .1%. big tech doing what big tech does. tom: big tech delivers, absolutely, jon. i sat with my beverage of my choice, and i said i'm going to look at the bloomberg analysis. we will not slow down the show, but jon, the year-end of 2022 of big tech is $1.404 trillion in revenue where is the digital place in the future, it is join or mess -- ginormous. jonathan: it is a deflationary force in an inflationary economy. tom: it is incredibly true and cuts that way. jon, 31% ebita margins, everyone raising the price targets, i think google, piper jaffray one up as well. john, -- jon, it is a shift. jonathan: lisa, price hikes at jaffrey, alphabet. people see it as a disappointment, stocks up 60% year-to-date. lisa: in revenue almost doubled, just to really drive the point home here. the cloud revenue lower than expected, the idea of whether they are actually competing in the same kind of way that people had expected. these are bl

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. barry ritholtz joins with bloomberg at pinon about the time and freshman cap -- with bloomberg opinion about the time and freshman college when you realize you can have a line and then you have the rate of change in the second derivative, the rate of change of the rate of change shows you gradually then suddenly. that is the heartbeat of physics in physics is linked to investment. you write about gradually then suddenly. barry: that is right. pulling a line from hemingway the sun also rises, how did you go broke, gradually and suddenly. that is how the world changes. lots of things that are beneath our notice until suddenly there is no escaping them. that is as true for finance as it is for technology. things change slowly and all of the sudden it is a new world, it is a different experience. tom: i remember the winds of war, he so calculated, 1939 was gradually and suddenly. what does 2022 look like for investors to move gradually and then suddenly? barry: what normally happens durin

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive 0.1% on the s&p. earnings coming tomorrow. tom: i am going to say it is a modest pullback over the last number of days. i did the chart for francine earlier this morning. we are basically at a july 21 level, and we have to reset. it begins tomorrow. jonathan: the market worried about higher interest rates and supply chain issues. a haven so far over the last couple of months. the banks have been rallying hard going into numbers tomorrow morning and through the rest of this week. tom: the banks talk about recovery and use of cash. that will be a huge part of the discussion, not only the banks, but everybody else. what i see more and more is there simply two camps looking at the same narratives and saying we are going to get over this fear. others saying they have a persistency that is unmeasurable. jonathan: up 10% on the kbw banks index since september 22. that is quite a run. lisa: how much is it predicated on a steeper yield curve, and what happens if we

tom: that is a good reason to go to lisa abramowicz. lisa: if profits are good at these companies, does that mean the economy is doing well or we are still in the zone of slow growth and disproportionate corporate profits at a time when the labor market still hasn't fully recovered? david: that will be the question that gets answered as we go through third-quarter results. we know these kinds of companies have been at the forefront in terms of growth, and that is why, at least in part, the market has held up the way it has. but really at this point, it is just a matter of highlighting these five stocks as a way to make the bigger point about greater pessimism than is warranted on the part of analysts, and we see that really ever since the stock market started coming out from under that bear market last year. lisa: the reason why i bring this up, taking a bigger step back, there is this conundrum as we talk about corporate profits, that it hinges on not that high of a wage hike, smaller footprints of the ploy meant when we talk about big

jonathan: i am alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we had down .25%. we are trying to set up for the season. tom: we need the earnings. it really gets by. as you say, we get to a most unusual earnings season. it is compared to the caution of morgan stanley. jonathan: will they take a bite out of profit? we saw it in fedex as well. tom: and what will happen to revenues versus the pricing of the revenue point? enormous mystery there. jonathan: powerful stuff. the big question for the fed, will pay rules pay for it? lisa: higher prices are bleeding into confidence. you do wonder how they deal with these competing issues. jonathan: we shape up as follows. we had down about one third of 1%. yields are higher. .2%, a stronger euro. lisa: we are climbing to new highs in oil. i'm really watching factory orders that we will be getting for the month of august and durable goods orders. this comes as companies are trying to stock up before christmas. how much i you going to see those lag times increasing as they try to not lose sales? we will be sharing about the

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz

from new york city, alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. yields are up on two with a curve that is flatter for chairman powell next wednesday on radio and tv. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> don't miss out on the bigger picture here. fundamentals are good. >> it's possible to go faster and things are wrong and therefore it goes higher. >> inflation is going to get worse before it gets better. but we are going to see these supply chain issues easing. >> we are a long way from stagflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: we are on radio and television and it's a different hour of sla

lisa: i will. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. housing data just around the corner. mike mckee to break that down. this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards. so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: sperry thought for an equity market bear. -- spare a thought for an equity market bear. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up 22, up another 0.5% on the s&p. it is a four-day winning streak, within one present from all-time highs. tom: the way we do it this way is an impulse. must watch, must listen in minutes, gina martin adams will discuss and link this into earnings like netflix this afternoon. jonathan: we've had that big churn beneath the surface. a lot going on. at the index level, is it fair to say this is one resilient equity market, tom? tom: the gloom crew has been crushing it. we heard this morning about sluggish growth in inflation, and maybe you can indoor from that. this idea of slug-flation. jonathan: we are staring down all-time highs on the s&p 500. the least bullish survey from the bank of america fund managers survey in a year. nixon's of that. lisa: if you tamp -- make sense of that. lisa: if you tamp down inflation, it pushes do

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: just pulling back from all-time highs. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. your equity markets after by 13, down 0.3%. this run has been pretty tidy. we've had a series of execution after execution in earnings season. does it validate where we are priced or inspire further gains? tom: against the gloom crew, it has been a tidy set of days. i would suggest the news flow this morning incredibly nuanced around the waiting for earnings season. jonathan: we are waiting for a few more earnings later this week. we have been doing this in the face of conversations about higher rates, slower china. if you told me in august that some timber would not develop into the september we hoped it would be, that supply chain issues would start to heal, that did not happen. maybe it is next september. here we are staring down the barrel of all-time highs again. i would not have guessed that in the summer. tom: i am afraid to go back and look at the tapes of ho

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this wednesday, futures -53, down on the s&p 1.2 percent. on the nasdaq, down 1.4%. tom: it is moving out there. you go to the currency dynamics as well. what about the thundering silence of the weak dollar crew? it is stunning how that has stopped. jonathan: strong dollar this morning. you by the greenback, you by the u.s. dollar -- you buy the greenback, you buy the u.s. dollar. some indicators showing the tension. it folds into washington as well. our guest coming up has really pushed against weak dollar for months and months. mark mccormack looks like a genius. jonathan: is it fair to say the epicenter of all of this is energy? lisa: natural gas in particular. when you take a look at the united kingdom, prices absolutely surging. but there's a bigger story here, and that is the transition of the economy at a time of a perfect storm. how many times have we talked about supply chain disruptions, a pandemic, and a transition to greener energy? jonathan: what happened to september? li

-- lisa abramowicz. lisa: the idea that consumer sentiment is declining and this, white is confidence in the reflation story picking up and we are seeing small is this optimism, disappointing. people's optimism seems to be waning on a consumer level. what gives? jonathan: look out for the fed speak. lisa will give you the day ahead. the s&p 500, totally unchanged, advancing a single point. outside of that, yields in on tens, reopening the bond market, three basis points. the two year yield 34 basis points. we keep inching higher. tom: i am surprised at 160 on a 10 year yield. i thought on it close we would get 162 and stay there. jonathan: lisa, we keep climbing, crude, 80.70. wti up 1%. lisa: crude and 10 year yields climbing in tandem. how does this make sense when people talk about stagflation, shorter term increases in prices will dampen demand? this is something that will be an ongoing theme. u.s. august job openings, expectations to climb toward the 11 million mark. this is the big labor market que

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after five days of gains. we are almost there. tom: jacob kirkegaard this hour, the interview of the day. i'm looking at the earnings come in.

good morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jon ferro. it is a round-trip in the equity market, deeply negative to positive. -19 to positive 19. yields unchanged, up maybe half a basis point. euro-dollar slightly stronger euro, 1.16 -- 1.1597. the stoxx 600 was down by almost 1.6% thereabouts. now negative just 0.6%. the team at bloomberg doing a lot to get -- publishing happening on the south side, turning negative on european equities in the stoxx 600, cutting from neutral. they are shifting from a goldilocks to an anti-goldilocks scenario, that's been the discussion this morning. if those notes are piling up, this sounds like a capitulation. what do you want to do with that? just what it feels like. tom: they relaunched for the fourth quarter and we will sear -- we will see what happens on that in november. ira jersey with us, bloomberg intelligence chief strategist and football prognosticator. what do you glean from the spread market and which spread matters? ira: i'm right now looking at the five year versus the 30 year curve, becaus

i'm alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom we are getting deeper into earnings season, 80 4% -- tom, we are getting deeper into earnings season. so far so good. jonathan: i read -- tom: i really want to emphasize that this is not a quiet day. there's a terrific slow on economics, finance investment, and off of it as well. jonathan: we do have two commissions with some research written for you. is the dow jones stupid? what's that about? tom: laidler made an observation and i completely missed this. in the flaunted dow, everybody -- the flawed down. everybody looks in the investment world, it is growthier. he nailed that it's not copper anymore. jonathan: hardly anybody has allocated to the dow jones index. do you listen to what they say or watch what they do? tom: i watch what they watch. which according to google trends is four times the dow. jonathan: and then pay money to the other index. tom: we have to do both. lisa: i'm gonna let you guys decide the important developments of the dow jones but i do want to pick up on

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro prayed all-time high for the equity market. up another four tents of 1%, up 20 points on the session in the earning this morning are looking ok. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with the 98% success rate and the more affordable weight loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. how can golo offer all of that? because it's not like any of those diets you've already tried. it's the new way to lose weight. no stimulants, no starving, just results. results you'll keep for life. no more sacrificing to lose weight only to put it back on. no more sacrificing, period. it improves your lifestyle and delivers incredible results. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. this is the only program i have ever done that i have never deprived myself of anything. (announcer) if what you're currently doing to lose weight isn't working, or you feel like diets don't work, you're righ

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning to all of you to get lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz info jonathan ferro, and i'm tom keene. we have a catholic president visiting the vatican. we will go there now as president biden begins his trip in rome. the g20 meetings, and then on to glasgow. we have seen and -- seen him come into seen peter square, seeing the vatican gardens, and no awaiting the visit with his pope, pope francis. really extraordinary to see these images after what we saw in the early 1960's with john fitzgerald kennedy. now, president biden visits the vatican. kailey: this is a president who has not been shy about his faith. he has made it very clear throughout his service as a public servant that his faith is very important to him. of course, he is arriving at the vatican in the context of a very important g20 meeting in rome prior to him heading to glasgow. climate is going to be really front and center on the agenda. there's a few key players present. tom: what is so important about this, h

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. last month, federal reserve officials agreed they could start removing emergency support for the economy in mid-november or december. minutes from the meeting showed there was increasing concern over inflation. most participants thought inflation risks were weighted to the upside. they also discussed whether labor supply would oz back to 2019 levels. in china, factory inflation grew at the fastest rate last month in almost 26 years. the producer price index rose 10.7% from a year earlier. other commodity costs soared on inflation pressure as local businesses start passing of higher costs to customers. according to the international energy agency, shortages of natural gas in europe and asia are boosting demand for crude. the iea says that could add about 500,000 barrels a day to oil use over the coming six months. mixed results from domino's in the third quarter. the pizza chain reported revenues that mi

it was me in new york -- here with me in new york, lisa abramowicz. in the bond market, treasury yields lower by a basis point on tens to about 1.566 4%. euro-dollar, $1.1559. in the commodity market, -0.6 percent. mike mckee is ready to break down cpi data in just a moment. after that, neil dutta of renaissance macro, the head of u.s. iconic research. all of that is next -- u.s. economic research. all of that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: cbi in america is seconds away. from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market update points. we advance .2%. with your data, here is mike mckee. michael: these are not the inflation numbers jerome powell was looking for. cpi up .3% -- up more than .3%. at this point it is a .4% gain. .3% in august. over the last 12 months the all items index is up 5.4% before seasonal adjustment. food and shelter rose, contributing more than half of the all items index, the decks for food at home up 1.2% on the month. as for the cpi core, we are coming in at .2% gain,

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: let's get this trading week started. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on bloomberg tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro to gather this morning with -- together this morning with kailey leinz. tom keene, the beginning of the end of easy money. tom: the beginning of the end of easy money. jonathan has no clue. it is a different day. after the jobs report, this gives us a great day to set up the economics moving. also i'm seeing inflation front and center. jonathan: i'm seeing crude front and center. hikes in norway, brazil, south korea, new zealand, will the bank of england join in? tom: this goes off of the jobs report, full employed america, fully employed united kingdom. central bankers are under pressure not to be legislators. the backdrop is there going into this with the fiscal impulse that is drifting away. tom: let's talk about the growth import -- jonathan: i have more people downgrade growth expectations that upgrade. goldman joins in. kailey: yes they did for 2021

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. onto the jobs report tomorrow, we do it with a better market. it is a draw up. jonathan: we are trading on verbal intervention, not trading on resolutions. tom: very nice. jonathan: that is really important to draw a distinction between what is happening here. we are kicking the can in washington, d.c. a bit of verbal intervention. right now, i don't see any resolutions. so sentiments better, yes, but there's a lot still to address. tom: we've had the correction, which was a non-correction, down whatever number you want to use, 6%, 7%, 8%. the back story is there is still a wall of money looking for a warm spot. jonathan: do we need things to get better or stop getting worse? the shipping bottleneck problems are officially going mainstream. as usual, that probably means the worst is behind, even if it means it will take some time to resolve. tom: tea leaves for the morning, liz ann sonders does it with her team and a great set of charts. finally, shanghai to l.a. cargo rose over -- ca

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this hour, morgan stanley. next hour, citi. tom: the gloom crew gets a pause this morning. it's been a really good tape for two and a half days. to walk into the washington studios and see the vix under 18 is a big deal. jonathan: the doom crew gets a challenge. the transitory crew increasingly has a bigger challenge on their hands, too, going into year end. tom: lagarde making headlines, the president of the european central bank. the second round is a really distressing thing. when they take a second round at the university of cambridge, e 0 -- of cambridge, el-erian goes nuts. what is second round? are we substituting second-round for the even squishier transitory? jonathan: that's the story for inflation at the moment. yesterday i think the cpi, you can't get away from that number. lisa: if you look at the fed meeting minutes, federal reserve officials are planning to potentially end their purchases by the middle of next year. i question this morning, how much is the market endorsing the idea of sooner rate

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is not the earnings season the bears were hoping for. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up another 0.4%. the earnings so far, so good. tom: the vix under 15. there's a reaffirmation today that is very different than five days ago, 10 days ago. more earnings coming in. tina martin adams and the others we have talked to have said, you know what? the sum total of the earnings and revenues up. jonathan: the big tech players after the bell. microsoft, google. then onto apple. apple was in the news because of the supply chain story, a struggle to meet demand. we thought that would really define this quarter. so far, it hasn't. margins have held up. that has been the story of the year so far. tom: i think the powerpoint, buried in it, you see the reality of ge aviation. their fleet is down 18%. that is their calcul

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. we are down .8%. yields higher by a basis point to 1.5345, up a single basis point. in the fx market, dollar strength, euro weakness. if we can rally in get to natural gas prices again, the turnaround in europe has been remarkable. we have gone from positive 38% to negative. if europe had a central bank, the government or the chairman would be vladimir putin. the mere prudent saying russia is ready to help stabilize energy markets -- vladimir putin saying russia is ready to help stabilize energy markets. tom: doug kass, and we always protect the copyright of our guests, doug kass has been important guest. i just got a note. this is about china is the red swan. that is an overarching theme. i would give you credit. you've been out in front of this before me as china being the red swan. jonathan: lisa has been clear how this has been building through the year, not just the last few months. lisa: i wonder the idea that the kremlin will come out in support of the natural gas market, what is their incentiv

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after five days of gains. we are almost there. tom: jacob kirkegaard this hour, the interview of the day. i'm looking at the earnings come in. i will defer to gina martin adams, david wilson, and our great equity strategists who come on the show, but to me, it is earnings glass half-full. jonathan: another developer hitting the wall. chinese home prices falling for the first time in six years. there's a real slowdown developing their. tom: i want to listen to leland miller and others about the real pulse of the chinese economy. i will be honest, i am simply confused. jonathan: tom is not the only one. we are all confused at the moment. lisa: not just on the slowdown in the housing market, but the ripple effects for the broader economy globally. consider the fact that the housing market in china counts for about 1/3 of the overall economy. it shows a deceleration in one of the hottest spots in china's economy for many years. jonathan: whe

right now, for lisa and from of its and i -- for lisa abramowicz and i, it is a joy to bring in carol brown at bank of america. very much like tobias levkovich of citigroup, her strength is she started out in the trenches. if you are 17 years in a row the airline analyst of the world, and if you do securities analysis like candace browning did years ago, that is a research foundation. we are thrilled she could join us today. you have a new report out that is on bitcoin. i don't even know, did brian moynihan let you put the doge in your crypto report? candace: well, thank you, tom, for having me on the show today. actually, what we are doing today is not so much about bitcoin. bitcoin is just a part of it. what we did today is we are the first ager bank on the sell side to launch a strategist, and his job is to be the crypto and digital asset strategist. tom: look at you. [laughter] candace:candace: and lucky him. the reason we did it is because it is such a huge growing market. if you look at it today, digital assets are about $2 trillion. bitcoin is about $900 billion of the $2 trill

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we are down about one third of 1% on the s&p 500. claims dropped nicely. the estimate, 2.97. so good to see these numbers south of 300. the estimate, 297 the previous three, 293. if you are interested in the fed outlook, the estimate 25, the previous number 30.47 -- 34.7. claims coming down. the slow grind, you talked about the slow, persistent grind lower in that basis point. tom: the persistence was back to february and it was a point of tension, and down we go. what is important in this high frequency data, we've had very constructive weeks trending down, trying to get down. i'm going to say normal, long ago and far away, with something under 2.20 or 2.10 with a shock of under 2.00 but 2.90 is not far from the nirvana of where we are. jonathan: the market looks like this, down 10 on the s&p, -2/10 of 1%. the dow jones, yields higher by a basis point on the 10, 1.67. in the fx market, euro just a touch weaker, euro-dollar 1.1 640. it is always onto the fed speak. tom: november 5 i b

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this hour, morgan stanley.

so do you, lisa abramowicz. lisa: we have been talking about it all morning. the ecb will plan to deliver their rate decision. at 8:30, we get words from christine lagarde. how do central banks address inflation rates that have reached the highest going back to 2008, when in europe, it is met with a labor market that is weaker than here in the united states? at 8:30 am, we will get a read on what we are seeing in the united states. initial jobless claims expect it to come in at a new low of 188,000. how much does this give people confidence going into that first look at the q3 readings, the idea of gdp that was likely to slow? the expectation is it might slow much more than people think. the expectation is 2.6%. the atlanta fed gdp put out a report yesterday saying it might just come in as low as 0.2%, which is a marked shift downwards. aftermarket, we get earnings from apple and amazon. we will talk about supply chain disruptions come how much buzz had -- disruptions for apple, how much has been priced in. for amazon, how difficult is it for them to phil 100,

jonathan: lisa abramowicz is back with us on monday. seven days of gains -- will it become eight? down a couple of basis points. up 9/10 of 1%. tom: we will get some news flow on the this friday. david wilson right now on a friday, what do you have to reset us properly? david: i will be talking about spacs. clearly that particular deal has gotten people's attention. there surging again today. -- they are surging again today. the chart looks at what we have seen in recent history because there is this index spac. it tracks the blank check companies that have not found a company to buy yet into the company that comes out of the deals like we work that just went public yesterday. since highs in february this index is down 44%. a gain of 13.5 percent for the russell 3000 shows you how out of favor specs into the companies they have been buying our lately. tom: you have decades of experience. have you seen anything like this before? david: i can't say that i have. spacs have been around but they have become especially popular. tom: where is the transparency? do we know what we are by?

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the payrolls report 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. payrolls just around the corner. tom: unchanged from the last payrolls report ago?

kailey leinz in for lisa abramowicz. the bond market is closed. abramowicz says i'm not coming to work. jonathan: but it is open in germany, open the u.k., and those bonds are lower, yields are higher. the u.k. joining the likes of new zealand, mexico, brazil, norway, hiking interest rates. tom: price down, yield up. along the way, there's got to be touch points. a german 10-year getting to zero is a huge deal in this 13 crisis. -- in this 13 year crisis. jonathan: can we talk about that $81, $82 handle on wti? we haven't talked about these numbers since the back end of 2014. tom: we have only come back to normal when you adjust for a lot of fancy mass, but i'm sorry, we had a rounded up $85 a barrel on brent crude an hour ago. when do we see $90 a barrel? jonathan: maybe soon. what does that mean politically speaking? the politics of $90, the politics of $100. we got to have a bigger conversation about that, tom. tom: as we dive into earnings season, kailey leinz, what do you see? kailey: it is oil, it is shipping costs. a lot of these retailers

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a rate hike conversation starting much earlier than expected. tom: it is the shock and awe of the bank earnings last night. as we heard from lori calvasina, may be a tilt towards something more positive. this is the ambiguity. do higher interest rates signal gloom or a constructive and spirited economy? jonathan: this equity market signaling resilience right now. we are within 1.5% of record highs on the s&p coming into monday, in the face of a conversation about higher rates, and the face of a conversation about slower growth in china. tom: i'm going to go to the vix, 17.53 is a good place to start a monday morning. but i do take your point on the global slowdown. i thought jp morgan was really strong friday evening, michael feroli and the team, and bruce kaz munroe writing really showed the nuances -- and bruce castor and -- bruce kasman writing that they really showed the nuances. lisa: this really goes to the point we were making earlier in the show, which is how do they hike rate

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. agnostic, right. coming up on the open, monica dicenso. looking forward to that conversation later this morning. equity futures up a little more than a 10th of 1% on the s&p. nasdaq 100 futures advanced 131%. yields unchanged. a turnaround in the commodity market -- nasdaq 100 futures advanced one third of 1%. euro-dollar negative for little more than a 10th of 1%. the week begins tomorrow with j.p. morgan earnings kicking off earnings season. retail sales coming up on friday as we work our way through earnings on wall street. from new york on radio and on tv, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: general motors says south korea's electronics has agreed to pay for the recall of chevy volt electric vehicles due to manufacturing defects in the battery modules and lg was the battery supplier. gm says the agreement will offset $2 billion in charges. in washington is that up to the house to avert the immediate threat of a catastrophic default . lawmakers are scheduled to vote on a short-term increase to the govern

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive five on the s&p, up a little more than 0.1%. jp morgan first out of the gate. tom: i think it is being underplayed. everyone looks at the stock price and says so what. they are doing fine. i thought dames diamond -- i thought james dimon's opening salvo, forget the gloom. jonathan: if you had a headline, things are improving. lisa: however, there is another headline underneath some of the numbers, and that is lending. average lending going up, being driven by the corporations, not consumers. you are still not skin consumer loan growth. to me, that indicates this question mark around how much resilience there will be. jonathan: the equity market not doing much of the back of this. equity futures on the s&p advancing five points, up a little more than 0.1%. 8:30 eastern time with cpi in america. going into that, yields lower by a basis point or two to 1.56 12%. let's check in with bloomberg's sonali basak. year-over-year, the comps really quite tough. just ru

here is tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: goomo

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jobs day, 29 minutes away. we will bring you the data, but the data does not matter more than any time before. it is not 500,000. it is another number, and we don't know what it is. jonathan: zero is the number, according to thomas costerg of pictet, ellen zentner, priya misra. i have no idea what the number is. we will find out. but if you listen to those three, this bar is superlow. tom: we can go to the michael mckee world and look at the standard error of the numbers. i don't think it works here. it is a dovetail of a two-part fed discussion in the market reaction which we are going to see exactly at 8:30. jonathan: we've got a 750,000 range. what did ellen zentner of morgan stanley say 30 minutes ago? if economists were right, it was probably an accident. tom: lisa, i know you have seen it in new york as well. there has been a change in the last number of days. in our little world, i am seeing fewer masks. permeating all of this market babel and econ

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. we are pushing 150 again. at 100 49.44, we enter a dangerous -- 149.44, we enter a dangerous period in washington dc. tom: what you call it " relative gloom," jon? lisa: relative gloom -- i like that. tom: house democrats our caucusing at 10:00 a.m.. what is a caucus? do they meet at starbucks? >> we are good at caucus here and by that i mean talking to each other -- at each other rather than to each other. tom: physically what do they do at a caucus? is it a zoom call? isaac it is an opportunity for members to share their thoughts and opinions -- isaac: it is an opportunity for members to share their thoughts and opinions. lisa: trust falls and kumbayas. isaac: we saw some engagement and some clarity yesterday. we have the major stakeholders friend both ins -- ends of pennsylvania avenue talking. we had some clarity. everyone knew that $3.5 trillion for the social infrastructure program was not going to happen. we now know that senator manchin is pivotal in all of this. his top line is $1.5 billion. speaker p

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: the uncertain passed to a new normal. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio come on bloomberg television. jonathan ferro on a well-deserved day off. i am not going to call it a sabbatical. kailey leinz in the caterpillar seat, driving this morning. i really do look at the fact that central banks are in the hot seat as they try to gauge higher inflation at a time of slower growth. tom: lagarde has a lot to address. the headline just breaking across bloomberg on german inflation coming in a little bit above. that is a ginormous number come out to 4.6%. then you've got the key statement i see within all of the mumbo-jumbo of the ecb that ferro's expert on. i don't know why he doesn't. rates at the present lower-level lower level out there somewhere. linda ronstadt song come out there somewhere. lisa: basically, the market is pricing the sin. keep singing, tom. we are going back to a normal of low inflation, and this is what is supporting risk assets. the

tom: lisa abramowicz, i notice earlier, china making 34% of zinc consumption worldwide. look at the numbers from overnight. lisa: they were disappointing. the optimism is interesting. despite the china decline in momentum, still growing at a rapid pace and despite rate heights people are rising in, does that say it is ok for tightening or does that say that there is so much liquidity that people are closing their eyes to the risk and moving forward. jonathan: chairman powell does not want to go there. what is fascinating is the yield , the front end of the yield curve is going there. tom: you are channeling stan fischer. absurdly low bottom. i do not look at the level at the rate of change. i wonder how united this federal reserve is. no one expects action on rates. hardly anyone expects action in the first half of 2022. there is a lot of division going into november 3 and how divided are they? do you think the federal reserve is still with harmony right now? tom: this is a big difference from the bank of england. this is a less visible argument, but this is the fed open