jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro, futures are down. there is a meeting with lincoln and minister lavrov. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up to date, i am leanne. sergei lavrov will discuss the crisis in ukraine with antony blinken next week in europe. that was set after president biden warned the chances of russian invasion of ukraine was high. russia has denied it was planning an attack. the president supports tightening policy to fight inflation. roberto said it would be appropriate to raise interest rates next month and speed up the pace if inflation is not moderating. mester said inflation should be above 2% this year and next. carrie lam says the vote will be moved from the 27th of march to the eighth of may. -- we now have the price for one of the biggest trading debacles of 2020. it will take 4.2 billion dollars due to the collapse of the florida-based hedge funds. there might be more pain to come. global news 24 hours a day, on the air, on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts i

no jonathan: -- no. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 1.25% on the nasdaq. on the s&p, of 0.9%. yields backing away from recent highs, down three basis points on tends to 1.9288%. i should not have a go at for his french when i am struggling with my american. maryland, not mary land. have i corrected that? to the people of maryland. i have done that right now? thank you. tom: like when i call the spurs the tots, the take a little offense. jonathan: i just want to make sure things are right. we are here with a market lift. we look at the majors, the big stocks, some of the little stocks, and we look at the greater of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. we ignore em at our peril, given these central-bank instabilities. damian sassower is here, chief emerging markets strategy at bloomberg intelligence. his jerome powell, mr. bailey, madame lagarde, are they central bankers to the em world? damian: they are starting to look like it. the markets are definitely reacting to what is going on with the easy be -- the ec

i am jonathan ferro. price action, markets set up as follows. we are down on the year now by not even 4% year to date. in the bond market, yield return unchanged. a flatter curve this morning, just a little bit steeper as the front end comes in just a little bit. in the commodity market, positive, 1.2%, $90.73. this administration sensitive to what happens at the pump and about what people get paid. this story dropping from "the washington post," the president to propose a 4.6% pay rise for federal employees. five is the new flat. five for many people still does not get it done. tom: this deals perfectly with what kailey leinz said about 198 2. in the story, and the year 2000, 4.x% up, i believe you can add those numbers together and do simple math. federal employees up 9% over a 24 month period long ago. will we see that? jonathan:jonathan: will they feel good about 4% to 5% nominal? tom: this is really important behavioral economics. it's not that they will feel good, jon, if they won't feel miserable. the goal is not to be miserable. the memo

. -- i am jonathan ferro. often we get people reaching out saying just use the h word, hyperinflation. i want to remind you of where zimbabwe is. the central bank just maintained their interest rate of what? 60%. let's not use the h word when it does not apply. tom: that has been true for decades. there is some fancy mathematics involved that we don't do on monday but the answer is, you are right. it is overused and you are correct to call on it right now. let's go to the pandemic and get an update. certainly good news for america. joshua sharp steen joins us, from the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. we are beginning to see politicians act. jonathan ferro brought up the positivity rate. can we have a rule-based or single rule system to unwind our policies on the pandemic, wrapped around a ratio like a positivity rate? joshua: i think positivity rate is important but probably not enough, because it depends on the number of tests and getting tested and a lot of tests are not getting reported but

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 0.5% on the s&p. it is claims and counterclaims. tom: we got headlines out moments ago. you see those first on bloomberg. it is simple, russia defense ministry just talking about belarus drills and troop movements. this is not what we are waiting for from lavrov and putin, but some words from russia. jonathan: the u.s. disputing russian claims that there has been a true pullback. russia disputing u.s. claims that there has been a troop buildup. 10 year yields down by three basis points, a brief break of 2% again. tom: we are seeing some movers. we discussed five minutes ago oil does not give us the kind of haven support you would expect. i would really single in on gold , which is sort of a new region, higher gold prices. jonathan: we've got to highlight earnings as well. walmart will drop any moment now. lisa: the key issue people are looking for is how much consumers maintain demand, keep buying as much stuff, even at higher prices. you have seen the k-shaped

jonathan: tom keene, gina martin adams, jonathan ferro. futures down 0.1% on the nasdaq. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> traders are betting the fed will raise interest rates by 1.75 -- by 175 basis points by the end of the year. inflation at its highest pace in four decades. the fed set to raise rates seven times this year, up from the five hikes they expected earlier. in the u k, the economy expanded by the most since world war ii. gdp was up 7.5%. that is despite shrinking 0.2% in december because of the omicron outbreak. more fallout from that protest blocking truck traffic into detroit from canada. at least six auto factories near the border have slashed production. president biden -- afghan central bank assets frozen in the u.s.. according to the associated press, he will issue an executive order that 3.5 billion be used to fund humanitarian relief in afghanistan. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is blo

and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. takei tends at 195. tom: yields are on the move, this is a must listen and watch for all of you. i'm going to look at the real yield, it is moving. he mentioned the two year yid,

jonathan: good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. a dark day for europe. tom: a dark day italy coverage from our coverage including in moscow. what is extraordinary to me is the reporting that the markets continued to deteriorate at this moment. what we did not see is shocked down and recovery. jonathan: let's start with president biden's words, the allies and partners will respond to the union -- in the united and decisive way. this how will they respond? tom: sanctions but also there will be needing discussions about what the military response will be and that will be delicate. the baltic states as you mentioned yesterday to the north and down to odessa, attacked today on the black sea by russians. it is why geography of an eastern or western front. jonathan: we can work through the equity markets. crude is down triple digits. lisa: this is the big concern. people were expecting to maybe avoid an oil shock. today it is about how bad the oil shock is going to be given russia's dominance with exports. i do wonder how european regions

from new york, with tom keene and kailey leinz, and jonathan ferro. futures are a little bit negative on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, down a little more than 0.1%. yields are unchanged going into the cpi print in one hour and 12 minutes. 1.93% on tens. tom: there it is, it is inflation. we will have that for you in an hour and x number of minutes. right now, we will do ukraine or this and that, but today we are going to sit on this important inflation report. jack fitzpatrick joins us with bloomberg government. is there a difference in inflation analysis between the right and the left? jack: i don't know that there is necessarily a difference. when i talk to people on capitol hill, when you hear the way the president addresses it, i'm not sure there's a difference in analysis. there's a difference in focus in how it translates to legislation , and how people develop their opinions about it, but i think generally when you hear from lawmakers debating how this plays into build back better, they are more or less debating the same kind of set of numbers. i

from new york city, jonathan ferro. futures down a quarter of 1%. ♪ >> i think the equity market is a little bit of reprieve here. >> are called this year has always been more subdued market returns. >> in the u.s., standup, take about. >> the opportunity for this year will be more outside the u.s. >> i don't know that anyone prospers in an inflationary environment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, lisa ramos, and jonathan ferro. tom: most interesting

this is "bloomberg's the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york we begin with the big issue, a synchronized global market selloff. >> if it was just the bond market, we are adjusting higher in yield. >> the benefit. >> the new regime underway. >> the environment is one of tightening policy. >> as a relates to the bond market. >> when you see these types of moves. >> the fed is going to overdo it. >> there are limitations as to how high these yields can go. >> is the fed and global bank pulling back? >> it will cause challenges.

with bramo and tom keene i'm jonathan ferro. we recover off the back of encouraging headlines out of russia, encouraging relative to 24 hours ago. the russian president saying all right to a proposal from his foreign minister to contender -- to continue diplomatic conversations. a gentleman called branigan says roses in economic terms appreciate in value, deliver volatile returns, and seek to always be in backwardation when i happened to buy them. i love that last line. how true is that. [laughter] lisa: not a response. tom: that face does not translate on radio. do you want to convey how you feel to the people that only listen? i forgot it was valentine's day. jonathan: has misses jean message cute -- has mrs. keene messaged you at all? lisa: how many women still care about valentine's day. a corporate holiday. jonathan: you can talk for the whole population. lisa will bail you out. lisa: go home, tell her you love her. jonathan: did mrs. keene hear that? tom: i don't know if she is watching. lisa: that tells you over thing you

tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market has left, yields are higher, crude is lower. we have some ppi data. michael mckee, it is hot. michael: this will not be good news for the fed. the ppi on a month over month basis comes in up 1% after a .3% rise last month. the forecast was for .5%. double the rate of inflation in january. leave out food and energy and we are up .8%. the forecast was for .5%. it leaves the final demand on a year-over-year basis at 9.7%. we thought because of base affects we should be dropping to 9.1%, but no drop there. 6.9% -- the core is 8.3% year-over-year. the forecast was for her to drop to 7.9%. if you add trade services, which is wholesalers, 6.9%. a significant increase in producer price or factory gate inflation on the month. we can look at what it was mostly made up of. i'll take a look for that while you do the markets. let me also point out the entire manufacturing comes in a 3.1. it was expected to jump to 12.1%, better than the negatives .7%. we did have an increase in

and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. a bounce in germany, yield higher, crude lower by 3.3%, t.k.. tom: the bounce across 24 hours, what i will say in the last 20 minutes for pros glued to this across equities, bonds, currencies, commodities this devolves off of headlines and i'm looking at rush out right now. they are literally coming out in real time and we are reacting to this. ukraine recognizing russia violates -- that gets you going. jonathan: and then the reaction from boris johnson, some of the headlines from him reacting to the last couple of days, looking closer at ownership of russian companies, the uk's the epicenter of some of that discussion. we think that russia is prepared to move at any time. we've heard that from the administration over the last few weeks. seeing russian openness to conversations. the final headline seems to be what is driving things at the moment. the optics, the style, the approach seems to be improving. i think what we would like to see his substance going forward. tom: we'll wait fo

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down.8 on the s&p. tom: the vix going to the 30 level. we had a 31 handle moments ago. the global metric right now being brent crude. we got up to 96, 94.72. jonathan: the last thing the economy needs is another leg higher in energy prices. tom: i did the math with matt, kailey, and dani. the over $100 a barrel -- it's $118 a barrel, the average price , so that gives you a much to look hold -- to look to hold onto. jonathan: welcome back. lisa: i heard i missed nothing. if you look at yields, they were almost the same place they were when i left. it seems like it was an incredibly eventful couple of days. the interesting thing about oil prices are some of the projections about what that means for global growth, whether it is mike wilson, who is becoming known as a perma-bear, even though he is not, $100 a barrel would take about half a percentage point off of u.s. and european economies over the year. jonathan: 4900 on the s&p down from 5100. lisa: but that is a bullish call p of their art people coming

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market higher by more than 1% on the nasdaq, up 0.8% on the s&p. tom: 19 on the vix would be a big deal back to january 14, but right now, 20.73 on an early morning vix. i

surveillance" with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. your ism data later. equity futures positive. on the s&p, up almost a 10th. tom: a nice list after the ups shock of buoyant earnings. that is where the ship was this morning. this is something we take rate pride in. the leadership of michael mckee. the worst questioner of jerome powell we know. they are not just fed president or fed governors but they are real people. patrick harker is extraordinary and a voice for technology at the fed. he is definitive in operations research. he holds the youngest endowed professorship at wharton in their history, and when the fed needs to understand technology productivity, this is the guy they turned to? michael: let's turn to patrick harker ourselves. along with everything else you're a voting member as an alternate for the vacant boston president at this time. tom does have to pay attention to what you have to say. pres. harker: i don't agree with him on the question for jay powell. michael: now i can take it out on you. [laughter] mary daly ver

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. jonathan: she is full-time? i hope she is part-time. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan arrow. futures back 0.7%. tom: the nasdaq 100 down 16-ish %. maybe not as inflammatory as what everybody is waking up to. more important is the movement of two standard deviations. we are not at a correction, but negative 10% is negative 10%. jonathan: secretary blinken canceling his meeting with lavrov. what is next from here? tom: what is next is how will mr. payton respond -- mr. putin respond? the natural gas price based out of the netherlands is not what it was at the beginning of the year, but it is here to chile relevant -- usually elevated. jonathan: that address from the president yesterday, to defend freedom abroad. what are they going to do to offset this? a deal with iran? a tax holiday on gas? lisa: i am not getting a cohesive message. where is the cohesive message around domestic energy? what is the plan to move away from russian gas at a time when europe cannot make up for wha

jonathan: good morning to you. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. about 30 minutes into the session, we are down 1.5%. words you do not want to wake up to, war in europe. tom: there was a headline, russia invades ukraine, and it was more than an invasion. it was a multi-front invasion. the news flow extremely supple right now. i know we go to henry and moscow. what is important that henry in mustache henry in moscow. -- henry in moscow. jonathan: the president of the united states right now any meeting. we wait for the response. tom: we have lots of internal memos. we had one in washington sent to me. there were two camps at the white house. there needs to be singular action. you wonder, will there be that, and will it be coordinated? jonathan: the dark words of the russian president earlier today, bowing to "demilitarize" the country and replace its leaders. lisa: we are hearing reports of heavy fighting in several places. we are hearing of military bases being targeted, as well as ground troops. jonathan we are hearing from senators as well. senat

jonathan: with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up. we are up 0.7% on the nasdaq 100. yields unchanged at 1.9650%. crude falling back, $89.90. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with the news from around the world, with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. russian foreign minister sergei lavrov will discuss the crisis in ukraine with u.k. secretary of state antony blinken next weekend in europe. their meeting was set hours after president biden warned that the chances of russian invasion of ukraine were still very high. moscow has denied it is planning an attack. the limbs had president loretta mester supports tightening policy at a faster pace if needed to fight inflation. in remarks for a virtual event, mr. said it would be appropriate to raise interest rates next month and speed up the pace of inflation if not moderating. it is the biggest acquisition ever for salinities. they will acquire a broad portfolio of engineered thermoplastics. dupont's ceo has turned the business into a company focused on automoti

jonathan: the democrat from minnesota, from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. futures are negative, a little more than 2%. facebook making up about 5% of that index, facebook down around 20% this morning. euro dollar is negative. bank of england decision coming up and 42 minutes time. after that, we will hear from the ecb. tom: we will dive into that. jack fitzpatrick is with us from washington. the president will be in new york city. what is the goal of the handlers on the resident on a presidential visit to manhattan today? >> the political goal clearly is make clear the president and other democrats such as the mayor of new york, eric adams, supports funding for the police. they are going far away from anything you heard about defunding. the president is expected to talk about funds that went to state and local government and how that affects police on the street. the president sometimes speaks extemporaneously. the focus is the opposite of a defund the police message from the president. tom: what is the response of liberals to that and the fury of 18 months

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. you nasdaq up 0.5%. amazon is holding in there. crude up 2%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. today's u.s. jobs report could be a tricky one. the median estimate in a bloomberg survey of economists shows a gain of 100 when he thousand jobs in january, but the individual forecasts are all over the map, from an increase of 250,000 jobs to a loss of 400,000. white house officials warn the report could be confusing or misleading. in the u.k., labor unions have slammed bank of england governor andrew bailey, who called on workers to hold off demanding big pay hikes. bailey says restraint is needed to help control inflation. one unit official called it a -- one union official called a sick joke. it was pointed out that bailey earns about 18 times the average earnings. new steps to fight the coronavirus. chief executive carrie lam says tightened rules will be proposed. the vaccine mandate will eventually require three shots and rapid covid test will be handed out at all

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 0.25 percent on the s&p, leaving behind an ugly january. tom: really interesting. step away from it. when you are in triple leveraged all-cash, you can do that. i'm sorry, the recovery the last couple of days was pretty good. it was the way the nasdaq took the rebound, not even halfway back. i understand there was real carnage, but the vix this morning, 25.02. we were at 32 a cup of coffee ago. jonathan: that drawdown could have been so much worse. that was the move that closed out the month. you are still laser focused on the earnings. ups front and center this morning. tom: i think it is huge, bigger than the microsoft announcement the other day. we've got apple coming up against amazon on thursday. but fedex and ups are the backbone of the nation. everyone looks at them. it is like john deere was 40 years ago. everyone is focused on logistics, and it is a bang up set of announcements from ups. jonathan: in the premarket, up almost 7%. lisa: we get alphabet a

[laughter] jonathan: from new york, with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on radio come on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> the market is pricing and today what is going to be a transition year for the economy. >> i think it is going to be a volatile for a while. >> we have a more volatile market environment. the optimum value of cash increases. >> investors also need to be patient to figure out what is going on here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, across this nation, we welcome you. retail sales in 30 minutes. an important consumer metric. the buoyanth

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. a totally unpredictable payrolls report. >> the january number. >> payrolls numbers. >> do not see the expected omicron impact. >> is a just omicron, final pair back in hiring. >> the labor market is extremely tight. >> you adjusting the biggest sick out of your entire life. >> i do not think the number will be much. >> we will ignore if we can.

jonathan: live from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield. geopolitical tensions leading to the slowest week of the year. issuance fallen short of 17 billion euros after a number of deals were put on ice. in the u.s., high-grade bond sales hitting new highs. the largest offering coming from wells fargo. the u.s. junk bond market grinding to a halt after pricing in more than $9 billion this month, the slowest february since 2016. take a listen to what he had to say about may be a market that is not well priced. >> the bad news is i do think the beta in the market still has a way to go. but the dislocations are really becoming quite pronounced. what we are doing is relative value. definitely not diving into the pool here. i think this is a volatile time and we have not seen the repricing. jonathan: let's pick up on a couple of those points. we have not had the big shakeout. there is this comfort not in the left off or the pace of fed hikes, but the ultimate destination. it will be low and comfortable for investors. can we pick up on this idea t

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz come in jonathan ferro. we do have a bounce in this equity market. the nasdaq up 1%. a bounce back in the epley market with a flatter curve gets your attention. it gets my attention. tom: the five-year option this afternoon will get my attention. it will be huge. jonathan: you mentioned the belly of the curve with winnie cesar. that gets interesting because that is where the rate hike dance takes place. how far can they put it and how long can they push it? lisa: this is the reason i thought the flattening in that denomination was interesting highlighting the prospects in the near term. jonathan: coming up, erin browne of pimco, looking forward to that conversation. after a 10% correction on the s&p. is it a correction you want to buy? from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. vladimir putin says he is ready to pursue diplomatic solutions to the ukraine crisis, but only of russia's interests and security are guaranteed. vladimir putin spoke after the u.

this is bloomberg: the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with geopolitics. >> the russia and ukraine situation. >> russia and ukraine. >> the arnie it is if geopolitical tensions go up -- irony is if geopolitical tensions go up oil goes up a lot faster. >> this is putting the world in a different direction. >> markets do not like uncertainty. >> this is a big air pocket of uncertainty. >> i

jonathan: that was antony blinken, i am jonathan ferro. futures and negative quarter of 1% on the nasdaq, treasury yields delivering a little bit of a lift. up two or three basis points, 194 on tens through 130. again on tuesday in the commodity market. 8951. stock of the morning's peloton, looks a little something like this in the free market. early trending, we trade lower. done by 8% after rally yesterday , 20% corporate positions will be gone. 2800 global jobs will be cut. the top of the company, a wind for the capital investor. john foley stepping down, he will become executive chair. the former cfo at spotify stepping up. the question now, whether barry mccarthy once a dance partner or wants to fly solo? are they open to a takeover or not? tom: he needs to get the financial ratios in order with the new regime. 5:52 is when i walked in the door. the first thing i look that, down 150 billion. this is about a 35% haircut off of modeled fiscal year 2022 capex, that is a big cut. they are really cutting in. i think they are cleaning up as

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city we begin with the big issue. geopolitical jitters. >> people are nervous. >> general tolerance for risk is muted right now. >> project way with ukraine headline. >> geopolitical risk around russia and ukraine. >> replacing covid is our -- as our worry du jour. >> if russia does invade 50 pbs is off the table. >>

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city we begin with the big issue. whipsawed by headlines. >> the headlines have been flowing fast and furious. >> markets are clearly up and down. >> struggling to connect the dots and understand how bad this is. >> development in russia and ukraine. >> this is a big airpark bit of uncertainty. -- a big air pocket of uncertainty. >> if russia does invade ukraine all bets are off. >> another region the federal be careful. >>

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. futures up 0.3% on the s&p, let's call it 0.2% on the nasdaq 100. your estimate, 7.3% in america. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> inflation statistics continue to look extremely elevated. >> we are talking about inflation inlet. -- inflation in materials and logistics. >> i think we will be having a very different conversation around inflation and demand. >> evidence tells us we are going to see that turn. >> i think we are going to see it plummet like a rock. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thrilled you're with us here on radio and television. a follow one from

jonathan: from new york, with tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are down 0.2% on the s&p. in the last 20 minutes or so, the state department laying out a plan of what they would do to respond to the president of russia if indeed he recognized ukraine's separatist provinces. he said it would constitute a gross violation of international law. sick or terribly can went on to say it would necessitate twist and firm response from the united states, and full coordination with our allies and partners. tom: extraordinary, and we don't have enough time this morning with greg valliere. his morning note read in all of washington. i know there's other topics at hand. an absolutely stunning, direct statement. does it garner bipartisan support of congress? greg: i think so. i think most republicans headed by lindsey graham will go along with this. there would be some sign of conciliation on both sides. since if? of afghanistan, it seems like this administration has gotten a testosterone implant. they are talking tough. tom: putin always once a bilateral disc

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. moving on from omicron. >> the economy is shaking off this pandemic. >> you're starting to see people come into the labor force. >> jobs report. >> you do not see the expected omicron impact. >> the economy is strong, the consumer is strong. >> the environment is one of tightening. >> rates are going up and the economy can support it. >> from pandemic to endemic. >>

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up by 0.4%. the bounce fades a bit. the nasdaq up by 0.7%. correction territory at the close yesterday. tom: particularly currencies, look at renminbi strengthening out on strong yuan. the number i look at on the screen, 36.1 72. we have legitimate curve flattening this morning jonathan: south of 40 basis points as we go to this meeting next month. does that shape the views of anyone on the fomc? tom: we don't know what that meeting is going to be like right now. massive uncertainty. i don't mean that in a negative way, but massive uncertainty. they've got the jobs report and the inflation report, and frankly, the ism's early in the month. i can't believe i'm saying that. jonathan: it took me about 10 years, but i've got you on board to look at the ism. march 10 through the next cpi print. lisa:lisa: how important is it going to be after all the corporate earnings? people keep talking about the dynamism in corporate america, people who are still going out and spending even if they complain about

this is "the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ michael: -- jonathan: we begin with the bait issue. the beginning of the end of easy money. >> we have a new regime underway. >> where at a turning point. >> monetary policy is tightening. >> we have largely priced in a more aggressive fed. >> they confirmed tapering would end on schedule in march. >> talking about five or six or seven hikes. >> the fed is further behind and they will have to catch up. >> they have a difficult

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. teachers are negative two point -- futures are negative on the s&p 2.5%. crude is higher, up by almost 7%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. ♪ jonathan: demilitarized the country and replace its leaders, the goal of the russian president for ukraine. equities down by 2.4% on the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down by 3%. coming into today, the story was already bleak for equities. we take more weight off the gains of last year. that is the equity story. we talked about mil

from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg you real yield. it's time for the final spread, the week ahead. china pmi's come in on monday, followed by trade balance on tuesday. rb i rate decision on wednesday. plus, fed speak. a ton of feds through the week. that's 50 basis point pression -- question could get very interesting, going into the big one on thursday, with cpi and initial jobless claims. just briefly on cpi, your estimate, the median right now 7.3%. the previous read was 7%. i'm looking at a range of estimates that have already come through. we've got about 25 estimates so far. 7.3% is the median, 7.6% is the high, the low is 7%. let's get to the rapidfire round, and let's start right there. give me a number for next week on cpi. just give me a number. kathy? kathy: i'll give you 7%. jonathan: krishna? krishna: 8%. jonathan: 50 or 25 basis point on the fed? 50 or 25? krishna: it's 25, but i think it may change over time. jonathan: i think someone was calling to tell you 50. michael? krishna: 25. --

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york we begin with the big issue. big tech bouncing back. >> the maker cap tech companies. >> stunning results. >> alphabet isabelle whether for the industry. >> that is bringing comfort back to that port of the industry. >> going from a trifecta of tail wind. >> we are at a turning point. >> a sea change in terms of fed policy. >> there are dips worth buying. >> it requires a more careful look. jonathan:

trading, this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from your city, we begin with the big issue, a lot has changed. ukraine officials arriving for a high stakes meeting. resident zelensky is skeptical, saying i don't believe that much in the meeting. let them try. i will use every chance to stop the war. western allies are sanctioning moscow's central bank. the u.s. could go further. >> we want to take every step to maximize themp

and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. tom: this volatility harkens back to 19 45 and we will have that coverage all throughout the morning. the talks are there. i know marie is better briefed on that than i am that i would say the real talk of will belarus to the north of ukraine, will they enter this war in support of mr. putin? jonathan: step-by-step, the west is cutting banks from swift. any other day bp dumping rosneft would be the top story. >> how much the world has changed as the western allies gave the sign they are willing to incur some wrath on their own people in order to go hard financially. jonathan: what we have seen -- tom: what surprises me and we will do a data check and all, what surprises me is what has not moved. there are so many things that have not moved. jonathan: the central bank of russia has moved 20% from 9.5. lisa: they have prohibited people from trying to transfer foreign currency to rubles. all of these things, that they are trying to intervene gives the feeling of an issue of liquidity. jo

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 0.25 percent on the s&p, leaving behind an ugly january. tom: really interesting. step away from it. when you are in triple leveraged all-cash, you can do that. i'm sorry, the recovery the last couple of days was pretty good.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tk, did you see the news? belgium giving workers the option of a four-day workweek. still got to work your hours, but i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p -0.25%. 125,000 for this payrolls morning. tom: i believe there is a number that has never been a greater fiction and that number. it is a movable

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. inflation in america. >> inflation. >> headline inflation. >> on the consumer front. >> eating into consumer confidence. >> i am calling q1 inflation readings the darkest hour. >> let's bring the fed into the equation. >> the environment is one of tightening. >> there should be no ambiguity. >> they have a window -- >>

jonathan ferro. futures are lower by 0.7% on the s&p. we are staying on top of the story as it develops. russian forces closing on ukraine's capital. tom: developing on multiple fronts. we have many reports of sirens were a lot of the western media is.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. facebook getting absolutely hammered in the premarket, taking down the nasdaq by more than 2%. we need to talk about the bank of england. they hike 25. some people want to even more than that. tom: for those in america, this is really important. it is across the atlantic, but this links right into the fed meeting in march. jonathan: some voting for a 50 basis point hike. i am not sure many expected that this morning. lisa: there's a hawkish tone on beginning the unwind of quantitative easing. danny blanchflower saying they should not do that, of course. we are seeing a move that is pretty strong in the u.k. two-year yield as they climbed to some of the highest levels in a long time. i just wonder what the goal is, given that so much of this is from energy. jonathan: on the corporate bond purchase program, they are looking to fully unwind all of that. there are votes out there for a 50 basis point hike. to be clear, they delivered a 25 basis point hike. you've got to imagine, there's m

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down.8 in the s&p. tom: equities, bonds, currencies , most information on the bond market, and i am looking at the 2's/10's, flattening is en vogue. jonathan: curve flatter. goldman this morning saying go to cash, just a little bit. i want to go through this call. still overweight equities and -- downgrading credit to underweight over three months and 12 months. cash becoming an asset class again. tom: everyone recalibrating. the year starts in march -- with a vengeance do you see that this year as well. i will not go over the strategy changes, but you will see a ton of people are just. jonathan: geopolitics at the epicenter of this for many people. lisa: if the year is just starting in march, i do not want to be here -- it will be the longest year in history. the geopolitics to me, it is interesting to see the risk aversion. bonds are big. what is the message, the idea that long bonds when people are talking about entrenched runaway inflation? the flip last week is indicative of a market that people ca

tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and john -- tom

tom keene, gma, jonathan ferro. futures down .6%. futures down .8% on the nasdaq. the move yesterday holding. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a bet that the federal reserve will raise rates by 175 basis points by the end of the year, coming after inflation running at its highest rate in four decades. goldman sachs expects the fed to raise rates seven times, up from the five, the economy expanded last year the most since world war ii. gdp up 7.5%. this is despite shrinking .2% in december because of the omicron break. more fallout from a protest blocking the border from the u.s. to canada. spacex founder elon musk says he is confident his new starship will be ready to launch this year at an event with the spacecraft providing a dramatic background he may get regulatory approval in a couple of months. he envisions one-day day it will carry people to mars. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ pres. biden: i am going t