jonathan: you are. given how little i know about all of this -- tom: what is the carnage on the street? damian: if you have to look across the whole of emerging markets, they have been ahead of the complex in terms of their curves are and what that is telling us about the future of the stagflationary impact, what we are seeing in eastern europe and brazil and she lay and columbia is a massive flattening of these yield curves. the inflation impulse is just not as strong. if you look at asian curves, they are steep. i think you will see a lot of that change over the next few months. i think you will pay in the front-end of places like malaysia, thailand, the philippines. tom: on radio, this is important and pharaoh has gone all-cash today. i sort of buttoned it up and am going more formal. damian: jonathan looks good. looks like he has been working out. [laughter] jonathan: you know the cycle. tom: that's good. jonathan: i've got to can saga. how's that going to work? damian: i like gonzaga. against arizo

jonathan: unreal. as we close out the month of march and q1, here's the price action for you this morning. on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2022. it has felt like a long one. let's put it that way. futures unchanged on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up about 0.3%. euro-dollar just about below 1.11, down by 0.6%. we have talked down the moving crude. 6% on wti. lisa: really deteriorating throughout the morning as people assess the impact of this potential oil reserve release by the united states. right now the consortium of the biggest oil producers are gathering to talk about output. perhaps it will be more than 13 minutes long. how much does opec+ use the oil reserve release we are expecting from the united states as an excuse not to go further? how much does this give them a reprieve at a time when they really plan on only increasing outputs marginally in order to stay with their previous plans? at 8:30 a.m., the data dump. how much can they continue to fall? we get february personal income

alongside tom keene and risa from up it's, i'm jonathan ferro -- lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a hope for a breakthrough between russia and ukraine in the last 20 four hours, had think it much both sides in the last few hours, pouring cold water over that. tom: what we see in moscow, there is a set of headlines, it is real simple, russia walks it back. washington walked it back with a vengeance yesterday afternoon. did you see that equity market yesterday? jonathan: what a run. some big news -- moves for big tech as well. tom: there may be a short cover. i'm not fancy enough to know that stuff, but i will say this. what has caught gimmick characteristics, there is an acceleration to these moves, the bear grew says it is an up rally within a bear market. time will tell. jonathan: david kostin with goldman, i will catch up with him. some of this is a short covering move and we can discuss that. tom: so is he still in a baritone? jonathan: no. he still has a decent year and price target. in the face of what we's -- what we've seen in the yield market, lisa, -- lisa: i feel every t

jonathan: no. lisa: i wish i did. jonathan: that is the debate now. michael shaoul joins us now, ceo of market fueled asset management. -- of marketfield asset management. the market could go a bit higher. we remain convicted. it is still a bear market. we position were defensively. do you agree with that line from morgan stanley? michael: i would say partially. going negative on the innovation trade for the last few months, my feeling is that this is a bear market in that part of the market. obviously it can rally even 50% and it would be down 50% from the top at that point. i don't think defensive is the way to go. i am still a big believer that the physical global economy continues on. i think this idea of stagflation is mistaken. we still have very high nominal growth, and that has shifted very heavily towards the physical economy. so i think the weakness in commodity stocks 10 days ago was yet another buying opportunity, and i think that global indexes with high commodity weights, this correction again was a buying opportunity. the overall u.s. e

jonathan: china has its own problems. i look at the crew this morning, is that in line with the appetite we are seeing in the equity market. lisa: i can't answer that question. is it because people are more optimistic about talks or because the global economic slowdown the people are expecting has accelerated by the prospect of ongoing supply chain snarls stemming from china? i don't know but i know it significant and it comes as stagflationary is absolutely at the wrong moment. tom: brent crude is back after the huge technicals. it's worth watching and food emotion as well. chicago rices up 69% since 2016. that does not correlate with thailand but it shows rice is beginning to move. jonathan: i'm looking up to catching up with jp morgan. equity futures are at session highs up more than 1%. equities are up in crude is down. look at this in the bond market, up 10 basis points, almost 2.1% on tens and two through 180 in the fed is a couple of days away. lisa: people are bringing up their forecast for how high the terminal r

jonathan: it is monsters strategic planning. they could release as much as 180 million barrels of crude. tom: it will make an effect and we have seen it. we can do the data check. brent crude, $101 per barrel but what will it do one week from now, one month from now given the 24 hour news in ukraine? i will say this until i'm blue in the face this morning. it is not going to be april fools. it is a demand economy. we have a boom economy. covid deaths are nearing 699. that is a triumph and it shows the recovery of the economy and that means oil of. jonathan: payrolls on friday. we have seen this before. not on this scale the. will it make -- not on this scale though. will it make a difference? lisa: that is about one third of the entire pool of reserves. going into the driving season. so there is a question about what this does down the line especially if you have to replenish reserves leaving some to speculate it could push prices higher in the longer-term. jonathan: what is left to do? the president speaking later this morning.

jonathan: futures up .3%. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a small business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving with comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. so boost your bottom line by switching today. get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on comcast business mobile and for a limited time save up to $750 on a new samsung device with eligible trade-in. ♪ jonathan: two hours away from the opening bell in new york city. good morning to you. on the s&p, up 0.3%. on the nasdaq, up 0.2 percent. since 2:30 on wednesday, the s&p up almost 5%, just looking right through what may or may not happen with the fed funds rate over the next year or so. this is the story in the bond market now. things starting to get really bunched up. you will notice the five-year above the 10 year at 2.3637%. you will notice the two-year is getting cl

jonathan: air defense is the top priority. lisa: right now, that is because russia is very much taken the approach to ukraine. i have been reading this issues as people watch what is going on with ukraine, feeling like they should be doing something and other people say, if you start doing something, you incur the wrath of world war iii. jonathan: futures look like this this morning. equity futures up .6%. nasdaq, up .7%. what a move we saw yesterday in the bond market in america and europe much more so. euro-dollar breaking down again, monday, tuesday, wednesday, euro-dollar, 1.1097. jonathan: people moving -- lisa: people moving away because of stagnation fear. we are speaking with deutsche bank's economic team later this morning. what i am watching today, a whole host of issues, including a number of oil related ones. oil prices surge beyond $110 per barrel and past $107 per barrel of wti. exxon did move away from its russia ties. does opec have control over this? who has control over this? a lot of these sanctions are self

jonathan: thank you. tough year ahead, for sure. futures down 0.3%, but bottom line for the team at blackrock, they are sticking with it. lisa: given the fact that people are still buying iphones, still going out and making purchases at walmart and on amazon, why not go for those cash flows, especially given the fact that they have more inflation resilience than bonds that are getting hammered? jonathan: kailey leinz, did you hear that? was 'bramo bullish? lisa: that was a realistic assessment of what is going on. jonathan: tom is not here, and you -- lisa: i'm not always negative, i mean honestly. it is just, where else are you going to go? i'm some of that active it. jonathan: i'm just surprised by it. pity for the fed come along stocks. what is this? [laughter] ♪ jonathan: following the biggest today pop on the s&p 500 going back to april 2020, we come down 0.3 percent on the s&p 500. the line from russia on talks, any report that they are going really well, particularly that "financial times" report, russia saying it is wrong.

jonathan: you want me to reply? jonathan got kicked into the closet this morning. tom: this the huge defeat for italy. what happened? jonathan: where do you want me to begin? we dominated possession, we dominated shots on goal, we dominated on everything except for one stat that matters. when it comes to football you're not entitled to a place in the north cap. -- in the world cup. north macedonia did fantastic. they had one great shot and that was the end of it. i was deeply upset because the italian national football team is a significant part of me and many italians too, but good for north macedonia. they go on to play portugal and hopefully get a spot in the world cup at the end of the year. is that it? can we not do this again? tom: you don't have to do this for the next four years, jon. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: what i was a kid and italy was playing football my mom would call into school and give me the day off. she would say, do you want me to call mike? it doesn't matter how old you get in life, we still feel the same wa

jonathan: thank you, sir. we have been two things today in the markets, we have erased bets for a move on the ecb and erased that's of a 50 basis point hike next month or rather this month now at the federal reserve. lisa: why? is it because people think the market needs more support, perhaps the fed will be concerned about the uncertainty? it is not the inflation data. what is the response function in markets if data comes in hotter than expected and if people think in his geopolitical risk that will be driving central-bank action? jonathan: the inflation data in italy, the estimate was 5.5, he came in at 6.2. tom: i'm going to james bullard and the shock that he had in real gdp. target earnings coming out and maybe that will help with the american story. can you overlay a global inflation for longer you get out to the animal spirit of nominal gdp and granted there are problems down the road, but things keep going. jonathan: i think that is what you are teeing us up for by the communication we get from the fe

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield. time for the week ahead. eurozone gdp early in the week on tuesday. data on wednesday. and then a big thursday with an ecb rate decision followed by christine lagarde's news conference. and then second before she speaks, u.s. cpi. back with us are frances donald, george goncalves, robert tipp. s&p to remove all listed and/or domiciled in russia. that will take place prior to march 9. the dow jones to reclassify russia from standalone to em. this is the nuclear plant that came under fire yesterday. u.s. saying they should allow shift changes at ukraine's nuclear plant. some of the headlines in the last couple of moments. let's get to our guests. frances, set the stage. thursday morning, cpi drops, lagarde comes out. i wonder what will happen that morning. what are you looking for? frances: let's go back to the theme of what we need to know about the future. u.s. cpi, we know it will be about 7%. with energy prices rising, we are going into march, all econo

jonathan: thank you. joe mathieu here in new york city, just got a headline from prime minister boris johnson in the u.k., speaking to parliament. there's more to be done on russia sanctions. there's a big feeling, a conclusion from any people, this is not over yet. tom: joe mathieu just addressed this as well. i thing this is absolutely critical. just mouthing sanctions does not work. there's a lot of evidence of that. i am going to be fascinated to see the follow-through. very clearly we will see that follow-through in price. i'm going to go back to chicago wheat. there's a week price in chicago -- a wheat price in chicago. jonathan: i've been following it, tom. tom: i follow wheat off of the london metals exchange. with the explosion yesterday and today, it shows those linkages in. will dissensions work? -- willie sanctions work? -- will the sanctions work? jonathan: this list, i think it is important for everyone to hear how much we have already seen from corporate america isolating russia. apple prod

jonathan: thank you, as always. the decision to trade and close the market, your decision is to reopen it. sometimes that is not -- sometimes that is not straightforward. there is no trading in russia. tom: that is a different case as well. but the lme, you really wonder. i make jokes about it, but i don't know anything here. jon ferro is on the edge of expert on this. i really wonder if there will be permanent damage to lme off of this. jonathan: i'm not an expert, but i have been to the ring. that's about as close as i have come to the london metal exchange. do you remember the old place? tom: no, i don't. jonathan: you should check it out sometime. can you visit? javier: it is mining week -- tom: it is mining week or whatever it is called in london. jonathan: lme week. active conversation about banning russian energy. congress is there, seemingly pushing in that direction. bipartisan support. we have seen from one poll suggesting there is public support for that effort. we've got massive corporations like shell s

jonathan: futures are up. going to read the quote we got from the spokes person -- spokesperson from the ministry of russia. they want to say what their goals are. there is no goal to "occupy ukraine, destroyed its statehood, nor to topple its leadership. that is the communication we had from them this morning. lisa: which contradicts some of the rhetoric we heard at the outset of this conflict. ultimately what do we glean from the reliability of any of these statements when there is one person running the show? it is vladimir putin, and it is unclear what his ultimate goals are and how much this is being driven by something personal that predates this era. jonathan: i doubt also the individuals making these statements are the same people who said there were no plans to invade ukraine. here we are. lisa: there you go. jonathan: let's whip through it for you. on the nasdaq we are up 1.9%. look at that in the bond market. 10 year up five basis points. two-year yields the highest of the year going into cpi tomorr

jonathan: i wonder what happened that meeting. i also wonder how much clarity we will get in the news conference. overwhelmingly, the consensus view was that they would have to take a step back from any kind of plan to raise interest rates and wind down qe anytime soon, based on the events in russia. but the inflation story, we are close to 6% in europe now. it is a problem. tom: for the two of you, this is never boring. this was not a walk. it is amazing to see. jonathan: 8:30, and 35 minutes, we will get cpi. then we get a news conference with president lagarde. in that conference, we get the outlook, some of the forecast. all of that happening now. lisa: what central bank so trying to do is maximize flex ability, which gives markets very little guide to go on. the fed put, the ecb put. can we say officially it is dead? jonathan: the italian two-year yield up 14 basis points on the year now. your euro dollars, 111. look out for the banks, look out for the outlook in europe. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome to a s

jonathan: annmarie: -- jonathan: on the punishment russian president is not done. lisa: how much work can he do. how much does he say this is the reason we are all observing higher costs to offset this war and end the russian invasion of ukraine? much can he do that considering this is coming into this very high. jonathan: a suggesting that he opens the door later higher tariffs on russian imports. lisa: what will that accomplish? how does he dovetail the message of this is russia's war, this is the reason why gas at the pump is rising so quickly versus, we had high inflationary environment before this began? jonathan: there was a hope with the deal with the europeans and iran but now there is a pause in the talks peered what did you make of that -- talks. what did you make of that? tom: i am not up to speed on it because of the immense complexities. the elephant in the room is in saudi arabia, riyadh and over to dubai and abu dhabi and the emirates. 113 a barrel for brent crude. jonathan: on the nasdaq 100, positive 0.48%. yields in and around 2%. if i told you on

jonathan: futures up 0.2%. still thinking about camp lisa, tk. ♪ jonathan: i think we are all looking at the same thing, they relationship between the equity market in the bond market, and asking if there is one. the equity market right now up 0.2% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, too. on the month, up almost 4% on the nasdaq 100, even with this monster move in the bond market. the low for march, 1.29 93%. it came on the first trading day of march. look at it now, close to bridging 2.40% and running away this morning. that is a massive turnaround on twos. at one point we had the three year, the five-year come of the seven-year-old trading above the 10 year and the 30 year yield. that inverted and then backing away, which explains maybe what we are seeing in the equity market at the moment. just pushing a little bit higher compared to where we were maybe an hour or so ago. so we think we know what the federal reserve may or may not do in that six months. we also think we know what the boj will not do, and that is ge

jonathan: i hear you. tom: the grimness of the last 24 hours has barely been captured by the western media. jonathan: let's be clear about that. we are both news junkies. the way the business media carried the story was stocks up, diplomatic breakthrough is possible. when you compare and contrast the financial market story of yesterday with what was happening on the ground, a disaster. this is why we see the pressure building from the likes of chancellor schultz. this, from his office, moments ago, following a call with putin and macron, demanding an immediate cease-fire. that pressure will build and build. tom: those were headlines we were hoping to see 2, 3 and four days ago. jonathan: futures down, three quarters of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between ukraine and russia, futures down three quarters of 1% on the s&p. on nasdaq, we are down one full percentage point. the lowest day for mastec, going back to march 21. we get comments, they have a call with

jonathan: brent up by 3%. from new york, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: the biggest one-day drop on the s&p going back to 2020. up .4% on the s&p. the russell, small caps of .7%. antony blinken repeating there isn't active discussion within the administration to implement an oil embargo on russia. let's see where that goes. the market is heading in that direction. brent crude, wti klein higher, just short of 1.27. shell buying russian crude at a steep decrease and then apologizing and saying we won't do it again. we are talking about sanctions they are imposing on themselves. energy equities up 37%. for the airlines, reopening getting more and more expensive. the airlines in america down 21% year to date. tom: this is a really important point. they have a fixed cost for petroleum. it is pretty grim. jonathan: yesterday was grim for some of those names. twos, tense, 30's, twos the highest -- twos, tens, 30's, twos at the highest. going into cpi on thursday and the fed next week. to

jonathan: the refugee crisis and a security crisis as well. let's talk about the refugee crisis. 3 million ukrainian refugees, and the overwhelming majority of them have gone into poland. that is why this first stop is in a city very close to that border. tom: it is very important, and as the united states talks of taking in 100,000, it really shows the humanitarian moment. the president's focus is very much on the humanitarian issue. jonathan: what we can do next is hopefully some kind of energy agreement between the u.s. and the eu. from there, the germans want to rapidly decrease their dependence on russian energy, and that is going to take a while. it is going to take years. tom: the domestic calculus is important. poland speaks loud in the congress. kailey: i think you are seeing the domestic pressures on the president, and that is why he has made many of the moves he has made. congress putting pressure on him to front run the u.s. oil and energy embargo. europe likely not going to follow

we jonathan: -- jonathan: we've got some big moves this morning. here's your move in the bond market. 2.1% on the horizon on a 10 year yield, 2.07 percent right now, up eight basis points. twos, 1.81% on the two-year yield this morning. tom: it is not only the elevation in yields come up at the curve that is out there. it is important that twos-tens is not 28 or 30 basis points. we've had some curve steepening, but it is ever so slightly as we search for the terminal rate. jonathan: a break of $104 on crude, down by more than 5%. yields on treasuries, 2022 highs. lisa: which is potentially a problem if this is the peak and we are beginning the slowing cycle. picking up on the crude story, how much is this optimism that talks will actually be successful between the ukrainians and russia? we will hear from the ukraine minister of foreign affairs holding a news conference in kyiv to talk about what comes next, how things are going on the ground, how much do we hear more optimism and how much that could potentially shape the. shape the narrative ahead

jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, and ritika gupta. russia is focusing its military campaign on the east and what may become a narrower set of goals for vladimir putin. one of the primary targets, every paul, the bombardment of the city has continued and russian deadline for surrender expired. the intensity is striking. president joe biden is warning the private sector against cyber. the president says the kremlin may be plotting cyberattacks to retaliate for sanctions. the white house room -- provided few details about the nature of the threat. the federal reserve is now using a more aggressive tone toward curbing inflation than just a few days ago. powell said the fred is prepared to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at its next meeting if needed. last week policymakers increase the right by a quarter point. justin trudeau reporting a deal that will keep his literal -- liberal party in power until 2025. judo's govern

jonathan: on individuals? i think london and the city has led the way so there was pressure on the prime minister to do more on that front. tom: i think it is movable and fluid and nobody knows where it is going. i am looking more at the war news. you look at the live feeds from all of the different newspapers, including bloomberg's wonderful work and you want to know what the russian troops are doing. to me the hallmark on a thursday of this week is the silence from along the black sea. jonathan: we are all thinking of the disconnect at the moment between the words we see in the headlines that shape the market, and the actuals on the ground. this week no different from what was up play out a couple of weeks ago. you hope for a diplomatic breakthrough. it looked like we might have them, and then what you see on the ground, the action is so different. the nato secretary-general backing that up this morning. tom: i will say this. what i am stunned by his the openness of western intelligence led by the head of th

jonathan: it is a guessing game. it always is, but this time they put forward the dot plot, and people are saying they might not have to do it because people will start to tighten financial conditions, and then they can back away. lisa: we don't understand inflation. we haven't understood inflation for years. the fed got inflation wrong, now we are scratching our heads trying to understand the next leg of this path. jonathan: that is the 'bramo i know and love. it took a while, about 90 minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast busines

jonathan: i agree with you. i was flying blind, and we got through that, and you said guest with the equity market is pretty i would not have said higher? kailey: the chairman would've been surprised to see that too. not just for the fed but for other central banks. the boe as we talked about on this program, tried to dovish hike, and the market did not buy it was not going to have to be aggressive and raise rates. the market is pricing that in. it seems there is a credibility on both sides of the atlantic. jonathan: another central bank we are looking at, the central bank of russia to leave rates unchanged. 20%, and offering an assessment of restructuring for it that has to take place. i think that word is diplomatic, to say the least. restructuring needs to take place in russia. we will hear from that later, 10 a.m. eastern time. several hours from now. looking forward to hearing what she has to say. and looking ahead to next week, we keep going back to talks about talks. this talk about the actual talks. the

jonathan: it's fake news. tom: we are in a lofty financial world and our listeners are out in the real world trying to not lose money. the big turnaround in this world is moving quick lee. -- quickly. tom: greg joins us from dws group. i believe we went down to 19 basis points and have come back up again. you say there is more to go in the spread. how do we get up to 80 basis points a steeper curve? >> much of the action has been in the short end of the market. they got one priced in for every single meeting. we think what happens now and perhaps this week's meeting could be the went was we start pricing in more sustained inflation on the long and and could see the 30 year or 10 year start to rise. we think it's something the fed wants us to see. tom: in your mathematics in the trenches, when you try to determine terminal value which helps you figure out the curve, is your terminal value the same as the dot plot terminal the fed will use tomorrow? >> ultimately, it could be the trajectory will go more slowly.

jonathan: thank you. hearing from prime minister boris johnson in the u.k., speaking in the house of commons, going on to say they will unveil the u.k. energy plan in the coming days. this report from interfax, the russian president vladimir putin to meet with government members tomorrow, march 10, to discuss minimizing sanctions impact. the amount of companies that have pulled out of russia in the space of a couple of weeks, what will that labor market look like in the next few months? tom: that is the key phrase, labor market. one of my themes starting this morning was the basic idea of what is the growthiness of all of this upset we are seeing? we are staying away from the measurement of economic growth and what is the key to politics. politics is about jobs, and it's got to be front and center for mr. putin and his people. jonathan: team coverage starts now with bloomberg's annmarie hordern. the president has made a move, and now we need to see what he does next the energy front. what are you focused

that conversation is next. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield. in europe, a flurry of midweek deals pushing debt sales above 23 billion euros. weekly volume topping estimates despite estimates going quiet after the ecb decision. in the u.s., bond sales surpassing. the junk bond market remaining quiet. one deal this week setting up for the slowest first quarter since 2009. when he, zach griffiths, lofti karoui are still with us. how much damage has been done in credit? investment grade through high yield, take us through it. winnie: from a returns perspective, an off a lot of damage has been done. ig is having the worst performance start on record. high yield is on the second worst performance on record. from a spirit perspective, the move has been big but not quite as large as those return losses would indicate. it all comes down to the starting point of broader yields. everything was so low and so tight, but the sensitivity of portfolios to a rising yield is driving outside total return losses. jonathan: are there p

jonathan: thank you. in brussels, team coverage begins with anne-marie -- with annmarie, alongside maria tadeo kailey:. -- alongside maria tadeo. how does it come together through the next 24 hours? annmarie: let's first start with the risk of chemical warfare. the president said this was a threat en route to brussels overnight, and the draft that bloomberg has seen a copy of talked about the use and the threat to president putin, and warns him if he would use chemical or biological weapons. we should remember president putin provided air cover in support of bashar al-assad in syria when he used chemical weapons. he also used it in southbury in the united kingdom. -- in southbury in the united -- in in the united kingdom. we don't know what the consequences they have talked about would actually be. when it comes to china, but i imagine you can see here is leaders that want to implore china to first come out and condemn what is going on, and then put china on guard and warned them they cannot help russia w

jonathan: as u.s. fears grow china may support russia's invasion, secretary blinken delivering a warning. >> china will bear responsibility for any actions it takes

jonathan: the ruble at 102. lisa: people are basically saying this market has been frozen and there closing the exchange and the bank is taking all actions necessary. the question is, what with the ruble look like in a free market right now? jonathan: futures down .7% on the s&p. the nasdaq down by three quarters of 1%. from new york city, good morning to you all. the yield lower by 11 basis points to 1.72. we were 30 basis points just a few trading days ago. as we price out more rate hikes with the and ecb. crude close to 100, 99 point 94, up by 4%. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm ritika gupta with bloomberg's "first word news." russia vowing to continue with their attack until their goals are met. a convoy of troops moving to the ukrainian capital. residential areas are being bound and the united states is saying there could be more deaths. the european union upping sanctions against russia. it is blocking seven banks from swift. this facilitates payments between institutions. one of the banks i

tom: she nailed is, jonathan. [laughter] jonathan: liz young from sofi, appreciate it. so it is about politics in d.c., why is that? tom: 30 years of west coast arrogance. i had a cocktail party in boston pushing 45 years ago, and there was a company called lotus, and though this finally got fed up with the east coast arrogance, so they went to the west coast. there were tax issues, as well. i am sorry, it has been a distant west coast arrogance, and now they have to deal with it in washington. so they want to join the dow jones industrial average. do not kid yourself, it is part of the mix. my good friend marc benioff is like salesforce, let's join the dow, let's cope your lisa: does tom know how much he has pushed all your buttons, jon? jonathan: i am calm today. i had therapy recently, did some meditation. tom: i am really having trouble with lsu-iowa state. jonathan: i am with lsu. no worries. lisa: gorgonzola. jonathan: did you just call gonzaga gorgonzola? lisa: [laughs] tom: chicago is in there somewhere. jonathan: coming up, tv on the radio. bloomberg surveillan

jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, futures in this s&p. we are going to start with this bond market move. lisa: yesterday, huge move. was this a hawkish fed meeting? to me, that with the rhetoric come and get the market took it as something slightly different. jonathan: threes are basically there already. lisa: basically, people are saying the fed cannot accomplish the stock landing that they seem confident they are going to accomplish. they are saying you are going to spur some sort of slow down. it is basically one sign of that coming to the floor. i'm not seeing it in equities, but the bond market is sending a clear message. jonathan: report of major progress in ukraine, kailey, that is wrong. reports of major talks, "wrong." kailey: that with the story published yesterday, to kind of outline what a peace agreement might look like. ukraine wants security guarantees. there a lot of remaining questions which may be is why the kremlin is saying that major progress has not yet happened because it is going to take quite some time to iron out

jonathan: thank you. in the building, julian a man u well of evercore. -- julia emmanuelle. >> it makes sense given the fact that is the only verified bull market we have right now is the bull market in hawkish and us. he basically went from zero to 360 miles per hour starting in november. remember how many rate hikes we were pricing in in november and now we are pricing in nine and looking at 250 and fed funds at the end of the year. from that perspective, and i think it is the market waking up to this fact that the 40 year old market in bonds is over. as we see it, it may be a bit overdone in the near term particularly because of the volatility market in equities is telling you the may not be that level of concern perhaps because there is too much bearishness in the equities. jonathan: i don't believe there is a big war between people in bonds and equities. they sometimes have these conversations. they tell you different things. how are we supposed to price a bull market with the fed and the praise hike

jonathan: there's two issues at play here. the obvious one, the direct relationship with the russian economy. the one that a second, people bid up european banks because they thought the ecb would be a little more active relative to the previous cycle on the back of higher inflation. that story has got strict out in a massive way. the index, the industry group overall is down 3%. take a look at commerce bank, down 5.5%. the overall index over the last 30 days has lost 1/4 of its value in a short amount of time. tom: the president to speak with mr. micron, missed -- mr. macron, mr. scholz, and mr. johnson iphone today. we have not heard from putin. jonathan: we have heard from the spokesperson speaking to reuters, and the word the demands. there will be talks, we understand, later this morning between russia and ukraine. russia is demanding that ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrined neutrality, acknowledge crimea as russian territory, and then recognize the separatist republics. what you did not he

jonathan: switzerland. lisa: you see the same trend with euro losing and falling to the lowest on the dollar go back to the pandemic. at what point will europe diverge for the worse? look at natural gas prices. jonathan: thursday cpi in america 8:30, and then catherine lagarde. can you frame that for us? tom: i am saying call him down -- calm down. lagarde has to wait 48 hours before she has any framework for what the ecb can do. jonathan: i would love to see you tell president lagarde to quote calm down. good morning to you. really big moves that we need to take care of. futures down 1.7% on the s&p, nasdaq down by 1.8. brent at one point seemingly closing in on 140. wti 1.32 come almost 6%. -- wti 1.3 two, almost 6%. -- wti 1.3 2%, almost 6%. -- wti 1.32, almost 6%. lisa: how much do we see some offramp? we are not seeing an offramp diplomatically but are we seeing an offramp for the average heavily -- average gasoline prices? four dollars here in the u.s. for the first time going back to 2008. we have be

jonathan: are they really? michael: that is what i have been told. jonathan: interesting. getting back to business. the two day meeting starts in about 50 minutes. tom: listen to the phds because so much of this will be the terminal value of the dot plot. it is something i don't spend that much time on, but nevertheless, there it is. it is a rich meeting in terms of gaming out amidst uncertainty we have never really seen. jonathan: on the demand front, delta area seeing unparalleled surge in demand. this is what you have been talking about. tom: i can't say this enough, and i've gotten hate mail from the gloom crew on this, peter lynch 101, watch what people are doing. the answer is they are desperately traveling. jonathan: does 'bramo message you? lisa: they are probably just saying wait and see. theoretically, if oil prices go up and the price goes up, whether the demand sticks. just saying, theoretically, a bearish individual. jonathan: futures up 0.1%. you should see the emails that lisa sends us for the show. [laughter] it is on the verge of bullying. crude, $95 on wt

jonathan: futures up 47 on the s&p. positive developments, the line from vladimir putin, and a couple of hours to go. tom: we have to go right to annmarie hordern's important interview with the foreign minister of ukraine in the 11:00 hour. he is confirming more news which directly goes into the bond market and the write-downs ahead. jonathan: we keep going back to it, the difference between what they are telling us and what is happening on the ground. we need to get the other side of the story. how do you -- how did the ukrainians interpret what is happening at the moment? what we got from the ukrainian foreign minister yesterday, i don't think that characterizes things as positive in any way, shape or form. tom: we see what bloomberg news does with the ukraine update and all the different complexities. the financial times and blackrock with some form of estimated right down, and i go to the telegraph, and james crisp with stunning photos of a massive attack planned. lisa: how do you have discussions about possibly end

jonathan: this is a massive move. earlier this month, we were down in the one 20's in the middle of the session. now we are in the two 30's. that's a massive move. can you reconcile that and doesn't tell you about something -- the work the fed needs to do? >> i think they have work to do. markets have been beating the two drums. you have what the fed's trying to do then the war in ukraine. the one thing we haven't focused on, jay powell hinted the minutes are a good indication of what the balance sheet reduction is going to look like. i think that's going to have more of an impact on the risk assets than the hikes. once you start with the balance sheet reduction, that's going to impact all risk assets. jonathan: goldman came out earlier this week, took the two-year forecast to 290. next year, curve inversion again. the year after, curve inversion again. amanda, i hate to put you in competition but help me's understand all this. how unprecedented would it be to have credit resilient in the face of all of that? >> the r

jonathan: thank you. there goes another one. levi strauss suspending commercial operations in russia. i've lost track of the list now. tom: it was a drip -- lisa: it was a drip at first, and it has become a flood of companies exiting as fast as they can. how long before we see parts suspended? how long can russia continue with military operations if they don't get basic supply chain inputs they get from around the world? jonathan: paul sankey of sankey research has some things to say. "is no capacity to increase u.s. oil production faster than already planned for ukraine based on lack of labor, lack of steel and pipes, even lack of cement. any attempt in the short term to increase production will simply increase inflation because capacity would have to be competed away from existing plans." we are going to hear from him in about an hour. tom: this is so important. the key phrase is what i mentioned before on demand destruction, it is a substitution effect, not oranges or apples, but of labor. mr. sankey is correct that in a cons

jonathan: the s&p up by 1.26%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. >> the fed has a job to do. it is risk managing inflation from well above target. >> they are trying to fight inflation, and inflation has gotten worse, seemingly. >> it is growing faster than sustainable, but they do not want to overdo it. >> reasonable to expect -- expect an acceleration in the fed hiking cycle. >> the fed has to start hiking for credibility. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro,

jonathan: thank you. we have this conversation as the german finance minister is speaking to reporters in berlin and saying germany needs more measures to ease the consumer burden. we have seen that a for going into this crisis from germany. from italy more so. they are going to have to repeat the act. the long list of companies pulling out of russia continues to build. seemingly every company has to expend what they are doing, what they aren't doing. pfizer saying they are no longer initiating new clinical trials in russia, to cease planned investment with russian suppliers. doesn't own or operate any manufacturing sites in russia, some clarification from pfizer. they conclude by saying they cease planned investment with russian local suppliers. tom: i don't know what else to say. my amateur phrase here is to embed sanctions. you do sanctions, fine, but it is the then what, and the then what is this week. jonathan: who is left? lisa a: companies can't operate there, little and one to. there are threats o

jonathan: thank you as always. they do not want to make a forecast but on march 16 they have to release some forecast. tom: they will have data dependency to that point. we see it in the 10 year yield. lawrence summers scheduled to be with you, the former secretary of treasury. before that david focus landau joins us. david folkerts-landau and the import research on intervention two years ago. you and others at deutsche bank are talking seriously about a need to intervene. the weak euro intervention of another time and laces $.85, $.90, now you're talking intervention at 1.10, why is that? david: is a question of how to control inflation without doing too much damage. the easiest way and the most effective way to do that would be for the european central bank to raise rates or find some way of talking rates up and indicating that is what they will do. you will recall that when they went negative in 2014 the dollar appreciated in a matter of nine months. any move now to increase rates and a signal that they will be

jonathan: china's ambassador to the u.s. on cbs step there was no report about china providing military assistance to china. that was the report over the last couple of weeks that they were providing assistance to russia. lisa: it's disinformation as being used by china to say we are not supplying ammunition. we are supplying these other things because we just want these but this is them not coming out with a harder line to try to pressure russia to back some of their troops. jonathan: the president will have a call with european leaders later to get on the same page about some of these issues with futures down 2/10%. later this week, the president of the united states going to europe and meeting with nato members. let's get to the founder and political strategist at ford of. just at fordham. >> my view has not changed because weekend look at previous conflicts for a template. i can't help highlight the disconnect between what i am hearing from the investors and chief executives i hear from and what is possible. politics is

jonathan: the u.s. may be, europe, that's the issue at play with talks between the ukraine and russia taking place today. kailey: lisa: europe says they will not be held hostage for -- by vladimir putin. how can there be support from the u.s. led coalition to supply liquefied natural gas which is a long process. hard to see how they will get away from this crack -- quagmire without a resolution. jonathan: the russians want to be a reliable source of gas but they want europe to pay in rubles. lisa: these are not coherent statements. you are looking at a situation that's not sustainable for europe but their hands are tied because they rule rely on russia. it's a terrible situation for everybody involved. jonathan: what is wrong with lisa this morning? is it apple's ten-day winning streak? tom: it must be existential tuesday. jonathan: we're just two minutes into the show so relax. it will be ok. futures are up 4/10 of 1% on the s&p 500. yields are higher by five basis points on the 10 year ended two years

jonathan: good asset. there is a relative world relative to other asset classes, there is an absolute world where we start to factor in what he thinks is going to happen with the global economy. we laid it out piece by piece, it sounded very worrying about the next 12 months. lisa: i'm very sympathetic to his view. i recommend everyone go back and listen to it. there is an issue of timing, and i think this is where the confusion comes into play. people are piling into equities saying there could be a recession, but it is not going to happen for another year and a half, so you may as well dance while the music is still playing. jonathan: depression in russia and ukraine. recession in europe, stagflation in the u.s. and a number of commodity and emerging economies running into debt problems. kailey leinz, that is the year ahead. kailey: he is not the only one that shares that view. the study out of the dallas fed said if you don't get russian oil back onto the market this year, the global economy is all but

jonathan: let's go to scott's call. he emailed us about 5, 10 minutes ago, and came out with his base case, a move higher of 20% in the equity market. could be more over the next 12 to 18 months. took note of what we are talking about in the bond market. if we can rally through it, we have in the past, so why wouldn't we now? lisa: perhaps because we are coming from a high base, and if people think real yields are going to go close to zero, then how much do you get some sort of pushback on that front? frankly, i don't have a call. i don't think anybody because -- anybody does. jonathan: futures unchanged on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down about 0.1%. lisa has no call. [laughter] lisa: is that the headline today? we are all confused. jonathan: the two-year up about five basis points. if you are just tuning in, year to year yield now has a 2% handle, up seven basis points on the day. twos-tens, now a break of 20 points. the spread between the 2, 19 basis points. that curve is flatter. lisa: how much does this pressure the ba

jonathan: cpi and america one week away. lisa, thank you. team coverage starts with maria tadeo, aggi cantrill. we heard from the russian foreign minister this morning. your take away? maria: well, jonathan, when i was trying to watch this press conference it was almost impossible. why? because the russian channels in europe is now off the air. so finding this press conference, even on youtube, was a real challenge. the russian foreign minister says there is still a diplomatic solution here, that russia is still willing to talk. but i would be very careful here, because what russia says is that they want to go into these talks with a number of conditions. that means they talk about a new government in ukraine, they say ukraine will have to give up weapons, and they also have to give up their bid for nato and the eu. when i speak ukrainian officials in brussels they say this is capitulation, this is not a negotiation, and they are not going to agree to this. what ukraine wants today in this meeting, if it happens -- it is not clear it will. u

jonathan: getting response worldwide focus. this from nato, it just a mess rated the recklessness of this war and the importance of ending it. lisa: that is a sentiment that is widely held throughout the world especially because this power helps to generate a lot of the crops to grow, the necessary commodities that come out of this nation addition to the 44 million people who live here. we are finding out even if there has been some sort of disaster averted, what does this mean going forward in terms of ramping up the conflict and taking steps that really have not been taken before and we are seeing that from vladimir putin. jonathan: there is a ministerial meeting. secretary blinken will be attending that. this has been an escalation overnight. how are we expecting them to respond? lisa: that is a great question because how far can they go without hurting themselves? we hear that from president biden. members of congress have a very different message. you can see the splintering of people who want to go as hard as possible on