j.p. morgan has been a beneficiary of that. i think jamie dimon was very right that you could have it both ways. tom: doug kass will be joining me later and he is heated about the tone of the dimon letter with the technology that jonathan ferro mentioned. -- the end of technology and the internet, the ethernet culture. his j.p. morgan at risk of being so dominant that nobody else can win? marcus: that has for sure been for quite some while. any of the decent ones tend to get snatched up. there is a much a risk of that, and we should be very aligned to that risk. j.p. morgan has the muscle and the money to spend. normally you can keep throwing money at it and j.p. morgan has -- and that will benefit exponentially more as we have to watch out for that risk. jonathan: it would be rude not to ask you about the ecb and what it might mean for the banks in europe, to get back to zero on the deposit rate. how big would that be. ? marcus: it would make me very happy man. i am a big fan of negative rates , just being paid to borrow in eu

we have j.p. morgan revealing its commodity exposure. we have the unprecedented nickel short squeeze that rocked to the sector. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> let's do a quick check of the latest business/headline. in a legal fight with qatar airways. the french playmaker is pushing the target of building six a month from early 22 -- early 2023 to the end of that year. airbus already slowed the protection by six. j.p. morgan says jamie dimon may stay on as chair of the board when he eventually stepped down as ceo. they may enable them is to serve as the nonexecutive chair. he has been the ceo since 2005. barclays is said to be i i move into the private credit market. plans are still in the early stages. they have not reached out to external investors. they don't have asset-management. any strategy would sit in the investment bank and would launch using the lender balance sheet. >> let's get the bloomberg school. j.p. morgan is reviewing its business after the nickel short squeeze. this is after a move that threatened to drink more liquidity.

j.p. morgan is kicking things off. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the european market open. we are heading into earnings season. j.p. morgan kicking things off later today. investors will be focused on how market volatility caused by the war in ukraine affected investment banking and trading operations. bloomberg's charlie wells is here to break down those numbers. how exposed are u.s. banks to russia? charlie: not as exposed as you might think which will reassure investors, but as we go into the earnings season, there is one story we are hearing most of the quarter. large u.s. banks feel they need to get out of russia. there is not as much exposure as you think. j.p. morgan, russia is not there top 20 market. a second story to listen for his about how the secondary impact about this war could impact these banks, how they are positioning themselves, with asset management, wealth management, which could potentially change quite a bit. tom: look for secondary effects. when it comes to the fed, we are discuss

and hugh gimber from j.p. morgan asset management staying with us as well. the austrian chancellor says he is pessimistic about peace after meeting with putin in moscow. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open, we are 12 minutes into the european trading day. losses of more than 1% across the stoxx 600, the handoff from wall street was not pretty. more than 100 -- 1 trilion of market value being wiped off of nasdaq. the most pronounced selling coming on the dax, down 1.7%. also losses of 1.6% on the cac 40. let's look at individual stocks. we have trading updates from deliveroo, easyjet and news from commerzbank and deutsche bank. deliveroo down 3.5%, a-listed company coming in with disappointing estimates. they were 700 billion below the estimates. easyjet, with a huge demand of travel over the easter holiday, but with first-half losses of around 535 to 560 million pounds. they still say they are on track to get operating capacity back to 80% of pandemic levels. deutsche bank down 8.5% on the back of news that there are undisclosed holders in d

russia turmoil hits j.p. morgan. the bank's results are marred by a $500 million loss tied to the war. goldman, citi and morgan stanley on the docket today. tsmc numbers coming in hot. looks like a bit of a beat for them. manus: absolutely. 202.7 billion is what they have earned. the expectation out there was for 186 billion in terms of income. let's get to juliette saly standing by. over to you. what have you got? juliette: that is an incredible beat. we were looking for a 33.6% jump in and that income. you have seen that -- in net income. we are looking at first quarter growth margin rising by 55.6%. this is all about chip demand amidst of the supply shortage. we are looking very closely to see what tsmc is going to say as well later in the earnings call about their inventory strategy, particularly against this backdrop of geopolitical tensions and what you see with the impact of lockdowns, particularly in the factories in shanghai. where looking to see whether or not there is going to be further talk about what th

j.p. morgan is reviewing its business with some of its commodity clients. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open, we are 21 minutes into the european trading day. markets trying to find their feet, the european stoxx 600 gaining .1%. the dax under pressure. features in the u.s. pretty much steady. oil climbing as investors reevaluate the prospect of tougher sanctions against russia. that's got to the bloomberg business flash here's laura wright. laura: the u.s. treasury halter dollar -- halted dollar debt payments from a russia. bloomberg has been told the move is designed to force russia to either drain dollar reserves, spent a new revenue are going to default. a payment on the country's sovereign debt was due monday. airbus may delay production on the a350 widebody jet due to sanctions from russia and a legal battle with qatar airways. they are pushing from march to the end of the year. the u.k. is to push ahead with the privatization of state-owned channel four television. they will let that channel grow and generate intellectual prope

jonathan: notes from j.p. morgan and deutsche bank. kailey: they were saying if germany's cut off from oil and gas from russia, that will be detrimental to the economy and they will enter a recession. they also said persistent high inflation underscores the difficulty that germany in particular has. europe talks about ratcheting up sanctions and energy for germany still looks like it's off the table. jonathan: the fed has a hard job to do and let's wish them the best. tom: this is a long letter. there is discussion of ukraine and discussions of the bed and there is discussion of the banking. what's interesting in the letter is the rationalization of the track record. he lays out what he's done. jonathan: earlier this year, they had a tough earnings call. they announce new spending and now he's talking about a return on that spending. tom: i noticed came up moments go, is the discussion of a mode around fortress balance sheet. the modes are. tickly deep says jamie dimon. jonathan: competition is coming from all sides. we will talk about

morgan's bloc chain group. omar farouk tell me they have to move slower and worry about j.p. morgan's brand and says the impact is something that a fintech. >> platform can go from literally nothing to moving and transacting a billion dollars of trade a day in a few months. so i think that sort of scale can only be possible when you operate at a company like j.p. morgan chase >> farouk, they have 2 hun people from start-ups and they hired thousands of j.p. morgan employees around the world it's not just first-year analyst guys he says it's managing directors and some of the more senior leadership applying to work at onyx other folks i talked to have found the pace of innovating from within a bank to be frustrating. take mary katherine ladder she has an mba from harvard and worked at goldman and started working on crypto as a side project as an asset manager. she said she didn't want to miss out on a fast-paced industry she's now chief operating officer. she said it felt like a bigger risk to stay and lose this next risk of innovation now they're looking fora different kind of

shery: another company that we are following, j.p. morgan. first quarter results marred by a loss tied to the market fallout from russians -- russia's invasion of ukraine. what jamie dimon said about the war. >> that's another huge cloud on the horizon. we are prepared. we understand. i hope those things all disappear and go away. i just wouldn't that on that. shery: let's cross to sally. what do you make of all of these concerns? sally: jamie dimon has put his money where his mouth is. they put aside 902 million as a reserve. they did that because they cited higher inflation and the war in ukraine. it indicates the probability of a recession in their mind has gone from low to less low as the chief financial officer said. haidi: what do we make of the fact that we are seeing the big banks really trail the moves that we are seeing an equity markets? it is not something you would think is intuitive, given that we are on the brink of a tightening interest rate campaign. sally: we saw j.p. morgan today, reporting a decline in investment banking.

>> you are looking at j.p. morgan and morgan stanley. goldman sachs justin line which shows you that a very heavily weighted trading business is going to be fairly valued here. people are worried about the volatility in markets. the point you guys were making earlier about trading losses, the value at risk for a lot of these banks has been going up as they try to make markets in this very tumultuous time. so then stepping in here is still something that makes investors a bit nervous when they are not clear about what the losses will look like ahead and we have seen some major losses. if you look past the second quarter, the second half of the year is still too uncertain to see how consumers will react to those rate rises. jonathan: investment banking advisory. i'm surprised to read this. b of a notes a record first-quarter for advisory fees. >> it jumped very significantly over at morgan stanley as well. the reason investors are really shaking this office because there's a lot of telegraphing that investors, big corporations are just pro

morgan chase. i think the reason j.p. morgan chase is suffering today has more to do with their capital ratios coming down due to the trading risks that were elevated, as well as counterparty losses that were trading partner losses that were elevated. one portly, their bond portfolio has to be marked to market, and that reduced capital as well. will that affect some of the companies reporting tomorrow? yes. we have some very large companies. goldman sachs, citi, wells. a pnc and u.s. bank tomorrow, they are not going to have the same issues that you saw with jp morgan's capital levels, and therefore they should fear a little better. kriti: want to talk about the trading revenue you just mentioned. sonali was walking us through those rise as a function of the volatility you are seeing in markets. one of the bookcases for the stock market is simply that that all the to letty going to decrease as the supply chain issues, the information eased just a little bit. talk to us a little bit about what that means for the banking se

morgan numbers. j.p. morgan is the biggest bank in the u.s. and when they report number, everybody watches and it was a little disappointing yesterday, we saw jp morgan shares drop more than 3%, took in $900 million charge for building credit reserves which means they're anticipating future loan losses and losses related to the impact of russia's war in ukraine and lower investment banking fees and high expenses. the real kicker is what jamie dimon said and his comments are closely watched by the financial community and he sees significant geopolitical challenges ahead with high inflation and supply chain issues and the war in ukraine. a very different teen than the one he was offering just a year ago. >> and one more quick one for you, amazon says they've got a new name for its free tv streaming service. what is it? >> so amazon's free tv streaming service, not prime video, but imdb-tv is called amazon freebie. if you haven't heard of the service before, you may start hearing about it and others in the future. the subscription services rise,

tom kennedy, thank you so much, with j.p. morgan private bank. we really have not touched on it today, but mr. musk i guess is not joining the twitter board. the soap opera. lisa: it is just hilarious. after proposing that they turn their headquarters into a homeless shelter, and people weren't exact lee sure whether he was serious or not, and twitter took it on its face value and basically said, what does he want from this involvement? he said he would take a passive stake. then twitter offers him a seat on the board, saying we value your opinion, trying to get ahead of him so he wasn't the enemy from outside. he rejected that. so what is he going to do with this stake? tom: i'm speechless. help me here. why does he have a different rulebook than everybody else? i don't get it. kailey: i don't know if anyone knows the answer to that question. he is the richest man in the world, so you have to keep that in mind. tom: i don't agree with that. kailey: on paper? tom: i do not agree with that claim back to the securities exchange act of 1934 and 1933

it still ahead on bloomberg markets: asia, we speak to j.p. morgan about navigating inflation. supply chain disruptions and volatility in global markets. do not miss our exclusive with the banks head of banking. next we are discussing the boj's policy stance after yen falls. this is bloomberg . ♪ yvonne: taking a look at the yen. dollar yen, presuming that decline on the japanese currency once again. one day reprieve after 13 days of selling, we are lower by one half of 1%. 128.40 $54-yen right now. we are watching all of the pairs here pretty continuing to see that weakness. let's see how are really looking on the ground in tokyo. chief policy economist mark schulz is here with more. there seems to be a hesitancy right now at this point for the boj where the ministry of finance to try to rescue a floor on it yen right now. why do think that is? mark: while the u.s. helped us quite a bit there. there is so much really. -- martin: it is not a trend yet, but it helps to show that this is not just a one-way street. the problem we have had at the ministry of finance is already ta

shery: j.p. morgan says jamie dimon may stay on as chair of the board when he steps down as ceo. this after he called for ratcheting up sanctions against russia and said the fed may raise interest rates more than market expectations. our finance reporter joins us with the latest. let's start with the succession plan for jamie dimon. >> thanks for having me. j.p. morgan's board close -- disclosed today that they plan to separate the ceo and chairman roles at the next ceo transition, when jamie dimon retires as ceo. what that might look like is, dimon stays on as chairman. it gives more clarity to the eventual post-dimon era, although that remains years away. shery: what were the comments when it comes to sit -- the situation in russia and ukraine? >> jamie had his annual letter come out this morning, that is what he does every year, it was quite long, 44 pages this year. on ukraine, he said, he called for increasing sanctions and said he is not worried for j.p. morgan's exposure but the firm could lose $1 billion over time and they continue to look for secondary impacts around the

morgan. so what i'd like to do, scott is collect about 3% a month we slammed through that this morning. so, in other words, i don't have any protection left from that covered call i haven't wanted to roll it down yet, but that might be something i have to do >> morgan stanley is one of the top s&p gainers. let's talk goldman, though, because that's what we have ownership on today's show. steve weiss, you own goldman there's the stock basically doing nothing. it was a beat, top and bottom. >> yeah. and i appreciate doc's self-analysis, but stay away from my goldman. they did perform, and they did beat top to bottom, which is unbelievable in this environment. so, look, the cream rises to the top. this is one of the best franchises in financials b of a, of course, i own it being another and they'll have a decent quarter relative to expect egg expectations and to the point that everything is priced into the market, i guess this wasn't and to the point that the market is a bear market look at the

j.p. morgan out yesterday with a constructive note. they say that we may be near the end of a fed repricing. credit suisse agrees. they say we are underestimating the power of qt. there is your inversion, the difference between the two negative about a basis point. the dollar yen, the somewhat rapid move in the japanese yen. the aussie dollar is outperforming. tom: you've got an important guest, euro-swissie shows careful movement. john blanche very out with a tweet. blanche flower, too many numbers this early in the morning .he's got the numbers on fear of on women and says why the ecb will not raise rates. jonathan: you mentioned the swiss franc. they don't need a recession in europe. tom: our global chief analyst is with us. i love what you say about jerome powell, he will be boxed in and you have really good paragraphs, you are looking for is deep downturn in manufacturing, expand on that. >> every leading indicator we have of pmi tells us they are having lower. every key indicator of the economy tells us it is helping -- it is hea

dani: did you see that call from j.p. morgan, basic commodity could rally another 40%. absolutely huge. let's look at what the equity markets are doing. i would not describe these moves. just flipping into the greens being led by china. we were talking about saed abukarsh -- two saed abukarsh. european equities ended lower yesterday, s&p 500 higher. u.s. futures treading water, underperformance in those small cap indexes. manus: a fact -- the dollar is flat, but his the sixth consecutive quarter of gains. outwardly, remains bullish on the dollar. they expected to break against g7 currencies, the dollar parity in six month rent staggering around vote $100 mark. -- brent staggering around the $100 mark. wilma sealed in india, breaking 7%. the highest since 2019. goldman sachs sues inflation topping out around 4%, capital also seeing a return to 3.5% in inflation. those are the most recent calls. dani: let's get back to some of the european assets, which at the moment are starting to take some of this heat from the first round of presidential elections in france. it is ind

morgan call, quote, no chance you won't have volatile markets, right? we're not suggesting more is scott minerd that the market's just all of a sudden going to go straight up because we can finally come to grips with the fact that the fed is raising rates in a very strong economy and you may, in fact, have that kind of runway that he's been talking about. i want you to listen -- by the way, because bullard today was out today to the ft saying it's fantasy to think that modest rate rises will tame inflation and he's as hawkish as everybody and whether he represents a broad view of the fed, who knows? we'll find out in may what the fed does and i thought what else minerd had to tell me yesterday and i want you to listen to it, too, pete. i want you to react to sort of this counter move to what most people are thinking. let's listen. >> every time i hear another fed member talking extremely hawkish about action and whether it's the balance sheet the more bullish i get and the reason for that is when you start to look at rates, and when the fed starts raisi

j.p. morgan was stopped from processing to payments due on monday. russia's finance ministry said this wednesday it would use rules to pay $649 million. ratings agency said paying a dollar denominated currency would constitute a sovereign default, that would be russia's first in decades. analysts say were forced russia to choose between default and using precious reserves of dollars. pressure coming in on all sides as western allies try to tighten the financial news on moscow. anchor: kate moody. moving on to our truth or fake segment. james, you are starting with pro-russian twitter accounts. claiming the massacre was staged. >> third of april. hundreds of civilian bodies strewn on the streets. look at some examples. shares of content suggesting there was a stage in or somebody's were not bodies. the idea that this is part of a disinformation campaign. let's look at the first example. why are ukrainian soldiers repositioning bodies? that, it was a video film by ap journalists. they are living binds because of that that was reported by ap and explain

we will get a picture of the trading floor at j.p. morgan. lisa: marco. jonathan: get the marco cam. futures negative one point -- -0.1% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo.com now to join the over 2 million people who have found the right way to lose weight and get healthier with golo. >> we are living in a world of 6%, 7%, 8%, almost 9% inflation. >> it is too early to sound an alarm bell on a recession over the next year. >> it has gotten much harder to forecast. >> the good thing for the economy and corporations is they are in such a good place to start. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, e

out of london, with j.p. morgan. he is the australian shop. tim nolan, what did you see on october 2019 where you said run? tim: we had a buy rating on netflix going into the time when the steering war really got underway way. -- underway. we downgraded to a neutral around the time disney plus was launching. the rationale was simple and it is coming to bear very clearly, which is more competition from major content analysis, going to record the consumer, it will keep the pressure on netflix. it takes away from their ability to add subs as progressively as they did for years and years, and it will raise the pressure on content costs. we have seen all that come to bear very clearly, especially in the last two quarters. yesterday, last night's results from netflix were really the same thing as the quarter before , with subs missed, a guidance figure which is a lot lower than the street expected, and again, a comment that operating margins will be -- now they are saying flat in 2023 after having cut the guidance for 2022. jonathan: your words -- n

work to conclude that what she had written was fundamentally at variance with the j.p. morgan who she was discovering by going in a systemic, thorough way through his papers and through material that had not been utilized in the past. she was willing to revise her revisionism, in effect, and that's, you know, you have to admire people like that. i mean, there aren't a lot of people like that. anyway, so the consequence was it took her 14 years to write this book which i think is universally regarded as the definitive work on a very -- look, she -- she was willing to accept complexity and nuance. morgan is one of the classic guilded age who invites caricature. you look at the pictures and the famous red, red nose, the medical condition. it's been retouched in some pictures. and, i mean, he looks like an ogre. and for years we thought, the category of post civil war, larger than life capitalist, rockefeller, henry clay fricht, the people we love to hate and old school history. a book in 1934 by matthew joseph son called "the robber barons" at the depth of the great depres

lisa mentioned the surprise of j.p. morgan delivering not so much." revenue." growth but one of the margins -- much revenue growth but one of the margins. come on this morning. dan, parachute in. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ han: this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. >> inflation is the driver of the feds more hawkish position. >> we do think consideration goes up if the market does not think inflation will rollback. >> it is all about q2. that is what is driving thing. >> the fed has muted tools. >> the chances of pulling it off are very low. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quick

morgan card number last week. i think there's a lot to go right but i wouldn't jump in >> not ready yet to take the plunge nancy, thanks as always, especially on a day like this. dom, thank you new home sales drop and warnings of higher costs. plus should peloton spin off its bike business? one analyst says yes, it may be one of the few options the company has. the shares areow6. dn 5% she makes her case next. ill pors and target specific goals. strengthening client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. ♪♪ in the future we'll travel to incredible places with the help of magical technology. but what about today? i want my magical future now. ♪♪ i have places to go. ♪♪ rocks to climb. ♪♪ sights to see. and flights to catch... i can't wait for what tomorrow will bring, but in the meantime, let's enjoy the ride... ♪♪ >>> welcome back a slew of h

morgan goldman and i reported this over the weekend. this company was awkward to be profitable anytime soon or significantly anytime soon, the stock was awkward to match what elon was willing to pay anytime soon, the fed is raising rates, this thing is going down you know what else is going down tesla. >> i thought people thought he would walk away because tesla is good to take a hit. one more thing most of the executives at goldman sachs j.p. morgan put together the ceos you are advising twitter and worried about reputational debt under damage if they told elon musk to pound sand. the bottom line there that could get anything close too the city time soon. go back to tesla, tesla is going to take a hit people thought that would be the reason if he did back away. it's down 11%. tesla is going to take a hit anyway, the stock by any measure not satan is a backup it is a good company but he has amazing things avoiding bankruptcy it is raising rates now. this is going to take a hit. , he knows his network is gonna be down to 2 billion in a c

speaking of bullish drivers, you have calls from j.p. morgan making the call on $185 per barrel if the eu goes on to import oil, excuse me, create a ban on importing oil from russia. how realistic is that? julia: a lot of people have become more worried because at first all energy sources -- and my sources were scoffing that the eu would ban russian oil. but as there is more traction that is becoming more possible. jp morgan says $185 is the worst case scenario. if there was an embargo, it would be slowly priced in. if they off the get go say, we are not at all going to import russian crude, there is the possibility of oil at $185. jon: helpful context. julia fanzeres joining us on the oil story. kriti, those working in the oil industry are busy. interesting data from a research group backed by slack. for those who have gone back to the office full-time the study is suggesting they are not as happy as their colleagues who were still working remotely right now. 35% of nonexecutive employees are back in the office five days a week. 19% of

morgan, notable exception, travel and tech sectors charging ahead with the nasdaq closing up over 2%. oil futures meanwhile have risen 10% in the past two days alone as russian supplies are expected to fall by one point 5 million barrels this month with the opec cartel projected to miss its monthly target by a similar amount. rent crude nwt, both gaining 3.5% to 4% today. finally, a slight loosening of restrictions this week, but the vast majority of shanghai's 25 million residents remain confined to their homes. china's financial hub has been under lockdown for more than two weeks now. bankers and factory workers have moved into their workplaces in a bid to keep activity going. china's zero covid policy is taking a toll not only on the country's domestic economy but on the global supply chain as well. we have this report. reporter: empty streets in shanghai, china's business that paralyzed as authorities tried to contain the country's worst coronavirus outbreak since the beginning of the pandemic. the zero covid policy is hammering the economy, particularly in the manufacturing secto

. >> let's switch gears here check out the bank earnings, bank of america, j.p. morgan, citi, set to report. tone is eyeing one name in particular he thinks can be money in bank. tony, which one? >> the meme i have my eye on is wells fargo. the first one i want to look at is the financial sector slf relative to the market basically, since february, we seen this sector make absolutely no progress. it's been rahnge bound right now we're at the bottom end of that range. from a timing perspective, looking at financials going into earnings, it seems like an interesting time to do some when we look at the major banks reporting next week, from my perspective, wells fargo seems to be the better reporting one wellsfargo, we seen them outperform the sector. recently it pulled back to a trend line this is a good opportunity to look at wells fargo going into earnings if you look at what's interesting i think for a lot of investors currently asking about you know rising interest rates and why are banks struggling in this rising interest rate environment? you have to look at t

. >> youus talked about wells faro and b j.p. morgan chase. we have some questions. first what advice would you give someone in their early 20s? >> the american way, the capitalist way as you earn more you're supposed to spend more. people t call their homes startr homes and you sort of set your expectations at looking for a concept i don't talk about in this book but i do talk about in my first book, finding your comfortable level where you sayc i can pay all my bills and i can do and not everything in the world i want to do but i can do enough things that i feel good about that the work i'm doing is worth it to me with her it's going to restaurants, vacation, certain hobbies. once you hit that point kenny new money you earn on top of that you can give yourself an early retirement or secure retirement becoming increasingly more difficult to achieve. to have gotten onto the treadmill in the first place. focusing on your own values we started out talking about that what are the issues you care most about. what made you angry a stand that you want to address because yo

j.p. morgan asset management, always great to have you with us. take a look at this chart that looks at the fullest -- fully priced in nature from what traders are expecting from the next three meetings, that the basis points for each of those meetings. at the same time we see they tandem follow it comes to equities and bonds. where you find opportunity at the moment? is there no better trade than selected equities? >> i think so if you look at the historic environment, this time around as chair powell mentioned yesterday, you will be having expressed a service when it comes to raising interest rates at the next few meetings. i still think the equity performance will continue. first of all, comes back to the point the fed will be raising rates and a time of growth and strong labor market. even though u.s. consumers are facing higher food prices and fuel costs they should be able to accommodate it reasonably well. the other point is that, the duration rests and fixed income continues to be a challenge. if you look at corporate credit spreads invest

david: marcella chow, global market strategist at j.p. morgan management. hopefully things will be ok. speaking of, no pun intended of course, the be ok press briefing is taking place are now. there we go. we are looking at -- yes, they're starting right now. this is taking us to -- live go to watch this. tv live go as the other one. to give you commentary, analysis on this and check that out. we will be if you on everything that is taking place. check that out. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: welcome back to the show. we have lots of things to tell you about. let's start things off in the ev space. some price action to the upside on the back of gains for the sector. you can see nice gains, even 7% across the board. nice gains in the space. last we checked we were up 3% on the benchmark. roughly, that is what we're getting as we make our way through the first hour of the chinese and hong kong sessions. yvonne: yep and we are taking a look at the bank of korea. speaking here, the latest headlines so far, >> we are taking you straight back here. the mayor talki

j.p. morgan kicks off wall street earnings, followed by wells fargo, morgan stanley and gordon -- goldman sachs on thursday. we will get the ecb's rate decision as well. and on friday it is u.s. industrial production data. first up, with me as micronet le pen face-off in the final run of the french election, we face-off on the growing cost-of-living concerns. manus: the u.s. 10 heads back to zero for the first time since 2019, what does it mean for markets? this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think it will take some time to get inflation down. there's other things going on in the economy that are adding to price pressures including the commodity and energy price increases. so i think inflation will remain above 2% this year and even next year, but the trajectory will be moving down. manus: the cleveland fed president there. the real yield has been negative since 2019, but is inching ever closer to zero ahead of cpi data tomorrow. let's see what he makes of this with oliver kettlewell over at mashr

morgan and wondering if you don't own it why not buy it. and i think the concern there is is that i would sell bank of america and morgan stanley if we secret losses. credit jamie dimon for going out and building reserves. they protect against inflation and the war in ukraine and the potential credit losses. i think ultimately the path to the final institutions will be traced out upon whether or not we begin to see these credit losses and ouch of the banks will have to build and reserve for potential losses >> you own bank, goldman, you sold calls in city and wells fargo. >> my biggest take away is that they just lived up to what we were talking about it was too expensive it was two times and you look at the different levels, some are more on the trading side joe has morgan stanley i like what goldman sachs is doing. they're half of the value of morgan stanley that's why i'm in those names. i think they're less expensive bank of america i compare to jp morgan that is why i picked what i got, i have that u.s. bank exposure as well. >> speaki

it does bring us to what j.p. morgan will tell us in about 24 hours time, tomorrow as we get the first of the big banks. >> i think some of the banks -- down here at j.p. morgan i think the risk/reward is okay. look, the fed is basically printing money for them. think about what you make in your checking account and how they invest it in really short term paper so i think they have a good forecast unless they have russia exposure we don't think that -- we don't know do we know who sold deutsch bank this morning >> i did see some headlines but i have to go back and do a double take. but yeah >> you can't get too bullish with the war still on, because that's food prices humanitarian is horrible and you can't get bullish if they have that amazing lockdown in china because that's -- >> sure. so you think we're capped on the upside and the down side >> yes yes. i think a diversified portfolio would do okay. >> we had comments from putin, probably the most expansive we've heard from him in a while arguing inflation will

. >> that around the corner, j.p. morgan kicking us off a week from now. you put out something yesterday after the fed meeting, the title, the fed is reaching maximum honkish -- hawkishness. are they already? >> we have a natural language processing model that parses all the fed minutes going back to 1993 to present, and we are at about the highest politician is that the fed minutes tend to get. people are confusing that we reach maximum honkishness and then reverse. when you stay those kinds of levels, remember 1994, they hiked 75 basis points for their last take. that is the type of environment that maybe we are going into. you cannot necessarily just look at the last cycle or two. you have to go back a couple cycles to determine how hawkish they are and what that is suggesting is we are probably not getting more hawkish from here because they are taking all the steps they can, reducing their balance sheet, hiking basis points. they are very hawkish and it is hard to imagine them getting more hawkish. >> i take your point, iraq, but i'm fascinated by the

for more on the risks weighing on the market, let's bring in the market strategist at j.p. morgan. you just heard her talk about the risks that come with marine le pen. she is focusing her strategy on targeting inflation at home. that is a theme we are seeing at home. talk about market sensitivity to inflation. if inflation is persistent, will markets bake that in or will they still be reactive to higher commodity prices? at what point does that sensitivity go away? >> markets have already been sensitive to it. you look at the move year to date in the 10-year treasury yields or government bond yields around the world and they have moved meaningfully higher as investors bet central banks will have to deal with inflation. interestingly, i think in some way, the market is perhaps failing to put enough emphasis on the fact higher energy price inflation is doing some tightening for the central banks, essentially taking money out of the pockets of consumers they would otherwise be spending on non-energy goods. i think that is doing a lot of tightening for them. while central banks are go

earnings season starts in full force tomorrow with j.p. morgan. how much are equity investors relying on corporate profit to provide the support behind the equity market even in the face of a federal reserve tightening? tom: the drawdown on the dow, 6.8%. lisa: i thought you were chair knowing your inner -- channeling your inner ferro? tom: my italian is worse than my friends -- french. lisa: the dow is worse than the nasdaq. tom: get as far away from her as possible. appalling. anna han, you must watch,. ♪ ♪ >> the financial situation has been positive for equities. >> but we are seeing is an increase in volatility. >> how high do rates need to go to slow down this economy? >> what qt does is another unknown. >> the risk of recession is no higher right now than normally. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene on radio. it is a tuesday of extraordinary inflation, that report in 90 minutes, michael mckee leading the coverage on the agony of a nation with infl

j.p. morgan has a look at how spending has been able to keep up even though savings have not. once that dries up, what kind of choices do consumers make. >> run me my coins, whether we are talking about apple's app store or meta and the 47% cut. people aren't building these for fun. if you are making money, you are going to end up paying up. figure out your contingency plan to not need that particular eco system too much. you don't want your 5% to go to 6.5. >> it's all relative the fee that meta is looking at, 47%! 6.5% doesn't sound too bad but timing and supply chain problems >>> the bear case for meta and roku tech check is just getting started. >>> down 70% in the last year. a new report reports the challenges julia has more >> roku shares are up about 3% this morning, despite the sell rating on the stock. despite three concerns, slowing revenue growth, plus warning that the warner brothers discovery merger will give more leverage over roku, second is the growing competition in the ad streaming which means it will pressure roku to invest more pressuring margins and third

we steel ourselves as a director 44 page letters from j.p. morgan. futures up 14. vix at 23.76. curve steepening up. 33 basis points from the panic. email lisa abramowicz. oil up. $106 on brent crude. gol at $1983 an ounce. american airlines talking about 16% revenue under what they had a number of years ago. delta airlines out with numbers. more on this with helene beck er. we begin bank coverage. ken leon. they have done the heavy lifting for us over recent quarters through the pandemic. we just had ben with the single best call on the bull market i have seen. i went to christmas eve of 2018. mr. diamon delivered 14% plus per year. that's almost borderline miracle given the pandemic. how did jamie dimon do it? how'd he delivered 14% total return per year in this fractured bull market? ken: we are talking about great management. great to be here today. jp morgan will continue to outperform its peer group over the next few years. the worry is the outlook for the next quarter and the rest of this year. to your point, the balance sheet has been the calling card for jp morgan to en

strategist at j.p. morgan chase thinking about consensus earning estimates for the s&p 500. they are overly pep ash pessimistic for the first quarter. they see companies delivering a surprise of 4% to 5% of what they call better than fears margins. at goldman sachs, a review of u.s. crepe -- credit markets is not signal a recession is coming. a senior analyst says absolute levels of investment grade and high-yield markets are not at all close to recession levels though she expects widening of spreads through year-end. haidi: this is aggressive selloff across sovereign bonds. look at how the pass-through is being played out in australia and new zealand. a big move when it comes to the three year and 10 year. we see broad rise in bond yields globally. we saw a selloff and treasuries focusing on the short end of the curve. the five-year rising to hit above 3%. we saw 530 narrowing to below five basis points. we are looking at traders pricing in confidently 50 basis point rate hikes at each of the next three meetings. we heard from jay powell as well saying that he sees. in the

we kick things off with j.p. morgan on the 13th. yields higher on the 10 year, up two basis points. olivier was talking about wages. this story crossing the bloomberg. walmart ramping up paper its truckers. they will be able to earn between $95,000 and $110,000 in their first year at the company. that is the result of a tight labor market. you get to earn that kind of money. tom: you get to earn that kind of money across many other industries. what are we waiting for? what it comes down to is profit disappears, or they pass on these labor increases enterprise. it is either/or. jonathan: 26% higher than the previous average for new drivers. fantastic when people get that kind of pay rise. tom: let's look at a chart. kriti gupta expands further. kriti: the story will be the food prices hitting a record. this is important. you talked about the black sea. this is what the u.n. report is talking about the driver behind the latest leg higher, the idea that there is reduced export supplies amid the ongoing conflict in the black sea reason -- the black sea region. that has to do with where

currency transfers, the degree of which includes goldman sachs, j.p. morgan chase, saying the potential failure -- the nation can avoid a default if they pay in dollars before may the fourth. and shanghai, 4 million more people were allowed out of their homes as virus rules started to ease. the imf cut its forecast of chinese economic growth. the global slope industrial goods might be disrupted. fratto prosecutors say crackdown on ford to the coronavirus lead on indictments of people accused of making $292 million of patients since the start of the pandemic. the justice department charged 21 people with scams during the past year. billions of dollars in illegal schemes for covid-19 relief programs. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 6:00 p.m. in london and 1:00 a.m. in london, welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories from around the world. netflix is tumblin

morgan, how much does this dissonance yield something close to a downturn versus a tale of two parts, the haves and have-nots? tom: the have-nots not doing well with the global and american recession. the world trade organization gets out front of imf world bank -- lisa and i will be in washington in a few days -- and the gauging of recession worldwide is a big deal. wto doesn't call for recession but with every bit of work i've ever done, 2.8% global gdp by every measurement i've ever heard models global recession. lisa: you look at how big the downward revision is, 4.1% to 2.8%. we've seen these types of revisions downward to global growth that have been increasingly severe. at what point do we admit we don't know what's going on? how do you game out geopolitical shocks or what is going on in china and what kind of affect it will have on an economy that is still fragile? tom: kailey leinz, in a trilateral world, i will suggest with a massive locked down in china, the war in ukraine, seeing the images of esther putin -- mr. putin, the united states is the only one left standing withi

we saw today with j.p. morgan chase that trading was good but investment banking was down, also questions about inflation, will we have problem with consumers being able to repay their loans? i think there are a lot of questions with financials, and that will continue to put pressure on the group. lisa: every time someone comes on, a strategist looks at the uncertainties and comes out with all the potential changes on the sliding scale. what is your biggest conviction at a time of unprecedented uncertainty? sam: biggest conviction is that prices will fluctuate. lisa: [laughter] really? that feels like a copout. sam: we will experience downward pressure in the overall market. the rally we got recently was driven by defensive's, not cyclicals. we also didn't have capitulation take place at the bottom on march 8. i think we are due for some sort of lower pressure that will end up with a capitulation selloff before i feel more confident about the second half. volatility up 61% in the first quarter, usually abou

when they said to j.p. morgan would outlast the party i don't want to comment but to say nothing lasts forever. and i do think that the hong kong peoplear have proven remarkably resilient and there are many, many small acts of defiance and there's still more than 7 million people living in hong kong even with the ebb and flow of most of those people supporting an open society. someut of them are working and waiting but i hope they live long enough to see a different time and hong kong will never go back to what it was but there's no reason it couldn't be a remarkable city again. i think more broadly, china's actions are waking the rest of the world up to its true nature. i spent more than three decades in asia, 28 years and hong kong working for and to be leaving. i don't think that i was naÏve. i was a little optimistic but we need to stay engaged, but we also need to make sure we are not unduly relyingth on china ad the pandemic, the combination of the pandemic and china's ability to create enemies where

joining us now is the analyst who wrote the report, natasha kaneva from j.p. morgan chase. nice to see you, thanks for joining us. what would need to come together to result in 185, is that the extreme of the scenarios you have looked at? natasha: absolutely this is an extreme. the speed of how fast the market can get to that price is how fast the european union decides to move away from russian oil. we believe this will be what europe will do, move away from russian energy in general but the market needs time. if they do it immediately, then we would see the price going as high as $185. 4 million barrels a day lost which the market cannot absorb quickly. kailey: one thing for prices to hit $185 a barrel, another thing to stay there. i would imagine some demand destruction would kick in at that level. natasha: by all means. demand destruction will start coming in. we are already see demand weakening, u.s. gasoline demand has been below our expectations since november of last year. we already see that, but another $85 higher would lead to significant less demand. anna: it is

that is what you hear from j.p. morgan on energy demand. jonathan: i mentioned six because in the premarket, we are down another 4%. still not settling down. we are positive on the s&p, up 0.9%. on tv come on radio, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. russia's president vladimir putin has declared that his forces have seized the ukrainian port city of mariupol. it would be the biggest city tatian during russia's two-month invasion. russia's defense minister says more than 2000 ukrainian troops are still hold up in an industrial complex get put in is demanding that those troops surrender. the u.s. justice department will appeal a federal judge ruling that throughout the mask requirement for public transportation. that sets up a legal fight that could last the on the midterm elections. many airlines have now dropped their own mask rules, but some transit operators have left the requirement in place. american airlines reported that corporate and international

morgan landscape. mr. dimon always touches on america and he talks about how we need to address or redress and what this comes down to is america right now adapting to europe. there has to be a new initiative from mr. biden starting this morning. kailey: jamie dimon taking quite a stance on political issues, calling for tougher sanctions on russia but warning of the potential growth impact could result from it, saying it will result in a slower economy and build inflationary pressure that makes it difficult for a federal reserve what he does not envy. this is the question for policymakers in the u.s. and europe. what do you do on the monetary and fiscal side with energy and -- with energy front and center? tom: one question, one observation before we get to our data check and our first guest and that is the speed of change of yield. it is breathtaking. jonathan: it is, at we have curve inversion and we are one hike in. maybe a little bit of a crack in the armor if you look at what is happening with icm. to

you heard j.p. morgan call for -- how high can roy price his coat?--how high can oil prices go? >> i don't think that is on the table. demand instruction probably starts around 150. wti start studying more extreme as we move higher. that is not to say we cannot see some outsized shock, in the event, to be clear, that all russian gases -- gas and oil finds its way to end markets. right now russian oil is finding its way to end markets. it is finding its way to india, finding its way to china. we all assume this was going to be a bigger event than it is turning out to be right now. with less than a million barrels of russian crude being withheld from the market. that potentially exists, but it exists in an extreme environment where everybody is a sanction, and that would require secondary sanctions from the u.s. to put that through. kriti: to rebecca's point, demand destruction is going to pressure prices a little bit lower. is that actually what is playing out? annmarie: they certainly would like lower gas prices. the united states is doing a lot to try to attempt to bring down p