let's get back to fed chair jay powell. he did not just open the door, he all but walked through it. kathleen hays, why is powell being so explicit? >> well, first of all, this is not a complete surprise. he seems to have mentioned the possibility of it in the past. the difference is that we are so close to the may meeting. other fed officials have talked about 50 basis point hikes. let's listen to exactly what he said at an imf panel that included christine lagarde, head of the ecb. >> it is appropriate in my view to be moving more quickly. i also think there is something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate, so that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. we make these decisions at the meeting and we will make the meeting by meeting, but i would say 50 would be on the table for the may meeting. >> i have been hearing in talking with -- and talking with my print reporter colleagues and they say this is an explicit endorsement of a 50 basis point rate hike

jay powell hardens his hawkish pivot. bond yields surge. the final showdown. macron and le pen face-off on sunday. we are l

we heard from jay powell as well saying that he sees. in the argument for front loading increases and 50 basis point hike will be on the table for may. we are seeing the oversized reaction and bond markets carry through to the asian session. let's take a look when it comes to what we are watching for the production numbers from australia. minerals still seeing gold output. copper output in line with expectations when it comes to expectations, we have seen iron ore producers falling short of output expectations. oz minerals continuing to develop its pipeline projects to expand outputs and being seen as well-positioned to continue benefiting very strong copper prices. >> base metals continue to rally. the fate of didi global is also in focus as they stay in the boat. senior chinese officials have rejected a set of opposed penalties on the company stemming from a lengthy cybersecurity investigation. do we know at this point why beijing is not pleased? >> the sources are telling bloomberg news that the senior government officials are not ple

we have jay powell, christine lagarde, and other world leaders. now, let's do -- tune into the spacex launch. romans from now, the spacex falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch. its mission -- to carry 53 satellites into orbit. joining us from san francisco, ed ludlow. 53 into orbit. what does that mean? >> it takes the orbital consolation above 2200 breed we are really close to countdown, so what we have a listen in and make sure the sequence goes is an. -- as planned. >> 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. ignition. lift off. chamber pressure will be nominal. >> as you can see on your screen and you heard by the cheers of folks with me here at mission control, falcon 9 has suspects fully -- successfully lifted off varying are 53 -- carrying our 53 satellites. ed: that falcon 9 booster with a payload on top of it which is satellites will hit the max cu e. you can hear it now. >> i'm curious. >> that is what we call a gravity charge. ed: what just happened, i'm sorry to jump back in, that is the moment of maximum aerodynamic pressure on the overall spa

jay powell says he wants to navigate a soft landing at the same time, he also admits that we need to see progress on inflation, not make assumptions which i think is a little bit different than in the past when they said okay, you know, it's sort of they knew where the ball was going and used that football analogy, and so within thing we know is that the problem here is that the policy impacts always lag. to me that seems like a recipe for a hard landing once they start to get these signals, maybe the hard landing will already be in place. your thoughts? >> history is not on the federal reserve's side here, much harder for them historical ly to orchestrate that soft landing. remember we're heading into an environment where the fed is not hiking into a weakening economy, that's going to make their job even harder but the question i have charles, the question that keeps me up at night is does the fed even mind if it creates a recession? i'm pretty much sure there are members of the fed that would rather have a technical recession this year than what they deem to be unanchoring of infla

the point is, that is what caught jay powell's attention. big jump in third-quarter numbers. the federal reserve he decided should move to raise interest rates. personal income is up half a percent, better than forecast. personal spending numbers, 1.1 percent, significantly better than forecast, 0.6. personal spending was 0.2% in february. the important thing to remember, these are backward looking numbers, already in the first quarter gdp numbers, but they suggest we saw a pickup in spending over the last month of the first quarter, after the covid squeeze in january and february. data deflator numbers, pce, the fed's favorite inflation index, up .9% month over month, much higher than the .5% we saw in february. year-over-year basis up 6.6%, higher than the 6.3% for february, but lower than the 6.7% wall street was expecting. core up .3, matching last month. core year-over-year, 5.3%, lower than the -- 5.2%, lower than the 5.3% we saw in february, was expected. the story here is the diversions we are starting to see between headline and core inflation. headline driven by foo

especially what we heard from jay powell, 50 basis points for may. the market now pricing in 50 basis points in may, june and july. even putting 75 basis points on the table. i mixed down -- the ftse 100 lower by 1%. the consumer confidence gauges out of the u.k. falling to the lowest level since 2008. the cost-of-living crisis, impact -- inflation impacting consumer sentiment. a challenge for boris johnson, who has his own issues to contend with. france, we will get back to that. francine is on the ground ahead of the final vote on sunday. that contention between emmanuel macron and marine le pen. let's see how things are squaring up as we look ahead to the u.s. futures. losses between 1.5 and 2%. today it is more subdued. at 2.694 -- one basis point. within the context, 11 basis points at the front end of the curve yesterday. across the curve, the worst -- futures pointing range bound. in terms of how this clicks across the european space, not much movement around the german two-year. eurodollar remains 1.08. officials at the ecb say is starting to

so i don't think that we should worry, as hard as jay powell a wage price spiral. that is exactly what he is referencing. >> real quick then, i got only a minute to go. i want to ask you both, what is more important here? we have lockdowns in china again but we have seen luckily, happily, daily shipping rates from shanghai have come down really fast or what part of this equation, danielle, are we most afraid of that the market seems to be spooked about. >> i would be paying closer attention to what's going on in the currency market right now. the dollar is extremely strong. it is causing lots of problems in the emerging market space. emerging market is where the canary in the coal mine are appearing right now. we're watching one country after another, charles. i think this is note getting enough coverage in the financial media right now. charles: joe? >> the fed will not go 300 basis points, charles, will not unwind the balance sheet 600 billion, would be worth 350 basis points of tightening. i would watch supply chains out of china because the fed has absolutely n

the timeline jay powell is laying out now. >>> and lawmakers are talking about stripping taxing privileges we layout the political ramifications for florida. >>> elon musk finding a partner for the twitter takeover bid >>> congress set to return to washington advance the president's agenda like build back better is bbb already doa >>> and the morning rbi. introduce you to the red-hot ice cold stock market that we call the snack attack trade it is friday, april 22nd, earth day. this is "worldwide exchange. >>> good morning, good afternoon or good evening. as always, welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching i'm brian sullivan happy friday we made it, everybody. one more day to go it has been a very tough market. not only this week, but this entire month as of late. right now, stock futures are not giving us a real clear indication which way they want to go. i would say they would be flat a little more down i'm trying to be optimistic on friday dow futures off 60 nasdaq off .10% only the dow is higher so far in april. that is barely mega cap names holding up. investors looking f

if anyone knows how to get this under control, it is jay powell and his team. i will say what is very disconcerting and you talked about the war in ukraine earlier in the show, food and gas prices are totally out of control of the fed. to tighten the belt and not feed the kids as much. there's a lot they can do for the rest of the stuff we buy. they are making progress. the last consumer price index report month over month was kind of encouraging. a long way to go. lisa: let's say the idea here is perhaps you don't believe the fed has to go quite as quickly as some of the more aggressive hawks out there. i do wonder how much you have to reassess when you see things like housing prices continue to climb or housing continues to climb beyond expectations, despite the tightening we are seeing in financial conditions. >> to be clear, my baseline is 50 basis points in may and june. i think it is pretty clear they are signaling two moves, not just one. i think that is appropriate. the mortgage rates, they have gone up. mortgage rates are up to percentage points. it is

again, it's not jay powell's fault. he did not create the price of avocados, and he can't do this and create more of them or bring the price down some price also stabilize if he moves as rapidly as i want him to next week but even if he had done that a few months ago, my garbage bill would not have gone from $300 to $400 a bill. every insurance bill couldn't jump 20% huge jumps but can jay force the big independent oil producers in texas to be so dismined and drill recklessly again that's the only way to make the price of crude go down butter, gasoline, avocado, these are the real world price increases that regular people have to deal with. so blame powell for some wage inflation and commodity inflation, just not for the most obvious contributors, because these are all about supply change disruptions or geopolitics or frankly, who knows what all stuff that is clearly beyond jay powell's control i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money. i'm

jay powell talking about a 50 basis point move inmate has any born -- everyone's attention. what people aren't talking about enough is it is picked up in the face of the conversation. what explains that for you? where are we talking about a more aggressive federal reserve at the same time in the bond market where looking at breakevens breaking out again? >> there is a creeping realization coming into the market that the growth is more durable. some of the statistics have been changed starting early in february with a revision of the payroll numbers. those were revised to a flat high level of job growth. the job growth has accelerated this year. the commodity prices remain strong. the impact of ukraine has yet to come through. when you compare this with the mid-90's or 2000, the rate of growth, job creation, inflation is head and shoulders above those levels. when jay powell comes in and basically if he had just said i could see doing 50 basis points, that would have been one thing. he emphasized yes, it is better to go early and that there was a window open for another of 50

. >> stocks losing early morning gains as fed chair jay powell says a 50 basis point hike could come next month. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here in washington, d.c. more on my conversation with the fed chair and others at the imf debate and what it all means for the markets coming up on the show here's where we stand right now in the markets near session lows. dow failing to hold on to some early gains. we're down more than 200 points right now. s&p 500 losing steam, down 1.3%. only one sector is positive, consumer staples everybody is else in the red technology hurt today, nasdaq down 1.75% and small caps down the most, 2.3% check out the energy sector. it is the worst performing sector right now in the market names like baker hughes, devon energy are under pressure despite oil prices being higher. coming up, more black eyes for streaming today with cnn plus shutting down and netflix shares falling again after yesterday's stock meltdown kevin mayor, former head of direct to consumer at disney, former tiktok ceo,

certainly, jay powell will get asked that for the next press conference. haidi: the kansas city fed is looking out more aggressive moves. she's talking about the balance rate hikes along with the reduction in the balance sheet. kathleen: absolutely. esther george's president of the kansas city fed, she, this year is a voting member. she has long been in the hawkish camp. although, when it comes to getting the fed through the pandemic monetary driven policy, she has been cautious. she has not been in front and moving quickly to reduce stimulus. but now she does say that they've gotta do it, they have to balance it with 50 point based rate hikes, but she think there's an option for the fed was a get started and quicker than the last recession. let's listen to what she told bloomberg television in an exclusive interview today. >> when you look today at where the balance sheet is in the conditions in which we will be doing that, i think it easily argues we are going faster and moving along at a quicker pace than we did before. we have a ways to go to get this

but first up, jay powell and, george, this was expected. look at what is happening in the bond market. is this something that you expect to continue no terms of the selloff in bonds and the rising yields or long-term interest rates? >> we do, dagen, good morning, great to talk to you. if you look at a long-term trend line and the ten-year, we are bumping up against, pretty problematic area now. if you think of 1981, 84, 2007, 2019 and now we are bumping up against the 3% threshold level now on the trend line and that's usually where we are heading in some sort of trouble. expectations are in the market. the market is expecting higher inflation and multiple 50 basis point increases and so now the point is where the fed is going to deliver and we are really going to see how the market responds especially the stock market. dagen: and the housing market too, nancy, jump in here. i just want to point out, we found out yesterday that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at -- the average now is at 5.11%. that is up from an all-time low a year ago.

powell, and jay plays it real close to the vest. if rising mortgage rates which are priced off of longer term treasury bonds cause a slowdown in home buying, and it sure looks like that's happening now, then maybe the jeremiahs of powell's fellow fed heads, housing's only 10% of the economy, we always talk about how it punches well above its weight it's connected to everything from lumber, copper, plastic, retail sales, all of which have demonstrated severe overheating. if they were to start really bailing out on their $9 trillion hoard of treasury and mortgage bonds, then it could take that part of the yield curve. i'm not doing this to scold anyone or because i'm irritated that these bears get to be insanely negative with total impunity, although i am. i'm doing this because i want you to own shares of companies that are solid and they're well-rounded rather than being hostage to any particular part of the yield curve. you see, when you own good stocks, not rent them, you won't be scared out of your positions. next time these scar

then jay powell may not have to raise interest rates as aggressive as he thought you could argue that jay has crushed the stock market which is a major way that rich people spend money and i'm cognizant of that and he didn't even do anything yet. clorox needs to put up a descent number and that could send this tattered stock higher. they have to do something with the supplement business. tuesday morning we start with pfizer i hope they consider buying another drug company for making up for some looming patents. did you see that stock today this thing is getting crushed. good yield six times earnings. here is the 39s times earnings, i like estee lauder. they're betting the key asian markets will be closed thanks to covid. i'm betting on the ceo, he's tackled that problem and the best in the business want a former high fly, remember this one, amd and they may very well report an upside, not that anybody cares. given how far the semiconductor stock has fallen from its highsine an inline quarter could send it flying, i'm itching to tell you to buy this stock we saw it down on monday and w

powell does, growth likes when jay powell is nice nice. there is no way he is raising rates seven, eight or nine times like people think. that's insane. so i think it's a good play right now. keep in mind earnings come out in droves in two weeks. i'm going to be sitting back watching what companies have 50%, 100% earnings growth. have great reactions to it. and so right now a little bit early but i'm in microsoft and i'm looking to at a bunch of others like shopifies, trying it turn a few things out. charles: i agree with everything you said. i would add one other caveat for the viewer. these are extraordinarily little volatile stocks, right? >> yeah. charles: if you can't handle it, amazing see a stock up 9%, golly i wish i was in it. not if it is down 9% the next day. if you don't have the stomach for it, you got to wait. gary, you're the best. folks, we'll be right meet jessi. jessica was born to care. she always had your back... back. ng to be a situation. ♪ ♪ ms. hogan's class? yeah, it's atlantis. nice. i don't think they had cam

if you're jay powell, you're saying it's driven but the purchasing power is going down for americans what i think js will watch is what is going on in the equity market, will is that almost every group i follow, except for energy and cybersecurity, are expecting that they'll be pricing pressure so suddenly you have mortgage rates up in anticipation with the fed is going to do far beyond what anyone thought they would do that's the biggest that the fed has. some people talk abouted supply chain. believe me, if things slow down, if housing slows, if your whirlpool or a cabinet maker, your orders are not going to be as robust. i think what jay powell is worried about is everybody going to be geared up and selling things at the moment when the market is -- when the job market -- >> by selling things you mean stocks yeah, no whirlpool. let's use whirlpool. they can't meet demand what happens let's say they're going full tilt then suddenly there isn't the housing market slows well, it isn't like they're able to kind of stop it it is one of those moments where there are a lot of companies t

chairman jay powell endorsed the idea of front-loading bigger interest rate hikes, specifically saying a 50 basis point jump in on the table for the may meeting and that we are, quote, really committed to using our tools to get back to 2% inflation. well, for those of you who are keeping score, consumer inflation stands at 85% -- 8.5%. that is, of course, a decade high. powell's endorsement got the wall street chorus going, and investors woke up this morning to a new call, here it is on your call, nomura expects the federal reserve to raise not by 50 basis points at the june meeting, but by 75 basis points. and not just in june, but at the july meeting as well. futures markets this morning were already there, they were fully pricing in an aggressive 75-basis-point hike, right now we are at a 94% probability that will happen. 50, that's already baked into the may meeting. so why the market freakout? aside from powell, earnings are dumping hail on the equities outlook. less than 20% of the s&p ceos have reported earnings, but 3 out of the last 8 hours are not burnishing the quarterly pic

our next guest says jay powell attempting a soft landing is like mciver diffusing a bomb. with us now is the ceo of altec's free. when i can remove her from a diver, he always got the job done. are you saying we are going to get a soft landing? >> great question. there's two things about mciver. number one, he he always had very limited tools and i think jay powell has a paperclip, which is raising interest rates and a pocket knife which is trimming the balance sheet. he's got a very complex bomb and there will be a cliffhanger that we will be waiting for a little while. setting the terminal rate above the neutral rate has cut the wire that made the timer on the bomb move a locker. that's why we are talking about the recession because the yield curve has inverted as a result of that. i do you think he's got as good of a chance as heading a soft that hitting a soft landing, i think it is a bit of a coin flip. shery: what does that mean for inflation? if we get inflation, we will get prices slowing down, what does it mean for markets? max: first of all, investors want to sta

looking ahead to chairman powell. >> is jay powell. >> to me the messaging is clear. >> normalize as quickly as possible. >> part of what the fed needs to do is tighten financial conditions. >> this process of the fed slowing down the economy is taking time. >> we are still far below any estimate of the neutral funds rate. >> a 50 basis point hike in the next meeting. >>

jay powell has said he wants to see the ratio of job openings to job seekers around one-to-one which is where we had it prior to the crisis. that labor market was delivering real wage gains and bringing people and from the sidelines that had been marginalized in the past. to get from the 1.8 job openings in february two the level, i don't see it happening without a major destruction in the demand for workers. if we were to see a 5% fall in job openings between february levels that we just got and march, if we look at that compared to the number of workers actively looking for work, that would be a new record going in the opposite direction of something the fed considers one of their key measures. romaine: always wonderful to catch up with you. a bloomberg scoop about u.s. listed chinese stocks and how beijing is preparing to meet some of the demands with regard to the audits. we will discuss coming up in just a bit. this is bloomberg. ♪ romaine: this is bloomberg markets. time now for our stock of the hour. we are looking at chinese adrs. they were facing expulsion from the america

who do you think is going to be more interesting to listen to, fed chair jay powell or christine lagarde of the ecb? jonathan: based on news conferences, chairman powell. how this goes, i don't know. it is going to be interesting to see if president lagarde pushes back against her vice president forget that is going to be interesting. tom: to lisa's comment on labor per dissipation, underplayed yesterday was the jp morgan oil energy outlook, which was a primal scream on building oil demand. that is may be the most optimistic thing i have seen all week. jonathan: and where the consumer stands with oil prices. wells fargo say this, from chris harvey leading the equity coverage. despite what consumers are saying about inflation, they are still spending bank earning calls, indicating the consumer remains very active. let's get the view from citi with david bailin. just how supportive is this consumer of this equity market? how strong is the american consumer right now? david: the american consumer is actually weakening relative to what they were just a few months ago. when we take a look at

chair jay powell says 50. he says it is essential that the country tame high inflation in the final comments before central bankers go into the quiet period i guess. i think someone is saying something. >> we try to keep them from the quiet period >> powell said aggressive rate hikes are possible as soon as next month check it out. >> i also think there is something in the idea of front-end loading. whatever an accommodation one thin thinks is appropriate. that is putting 50 basis points on the table we make the decisions at the meeting and make them meeting by meeting. 50 basis points is on the table for the may meeting. >> he made the remarks at the imf panel moderated by sarah isen as he spoke, market pricing for interest rates increasing got more aggressive. according to the cme group fed watch tool, the 50 basis point rate hike in may rose more to 7% not just like antibiotic, i guess, andrew. not exactly like that. you figure you have an infection. give me a quarter of my antibiotics now and see how it go

powell say maybe it will go my way or does jay powell say i have to take it where it has to go. >> he has to take it where it has to go because it's so expansive. on friday, she was the last fed speaker to talk with the quiet period, you're not going to hear about fed speakers this week she said we don't need 75 because we haven't done 50 we can do multiple 50 which is more steady and see how the economy and the market react they're data dependent a lot of people are drawing '94 comparison actually in '94 after a lot of negative sentiment when alan greenspan got really hawkish, summer turned out to be good, a big reprieve. >> absolutely. that was a market, you had a great fall and a not great fall, great autumn, better and i want that, but remember, they were 50/50/75 the 75 was in a movie, you're watching and the bad guy gets up one more time. >> they didn't have forward guidance, and they didn't have an inflation problem like this. >> i don't know. i'm reluctant to say this time is different >> if we did get 75, for which bullard has sort of put out there, i don't think it was his b

fed chair jay powell says a hike up 50 basis points is in play at the fomc meeting in may, he signals more aggressive tightening. arguing that he sees merit in front and loading. the fed about to enter its traditional blackout. before next month meeting. >> it is appropriate my view to move more quickly. i also think there is something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. it point to the direction of 50 basis points thing on the table. we make these decisions meeting by meeting. kobe on the table for the may meeting. >> u.k. says rebuilding ukraine will cost around $600 billion and they are calling on members of the to donate 10% of their proceeds to support it. any war is crucial to the -- >> ukraine is part of the global production chain, the world needs that production. looking beyond that, there needs to be a clarity in the world about the values, direction, the orientation of economies, but also the necessity of peace. there is a huge world interest in having the world -- war stop. >> they are asking not to back far right leader very

it's not clear to us jay powell is among them. and jay powell is going to drive the bus. when you think about the fed governors, i think it's very likely the case they'll follow powell's lead. if chairman powell says you have this shoe mocker guy at wells fargo, we have to take the hammer up, then i think they go that way, but i'm not convinced he's ready to go yet we'll stay with the grit >> i guess the real hope is we don't need the hammer. mike, stand by for a minute. we want to get the results of the ten-year note auction. rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. >> it was not pretty we're talking 34 billion reopen tens so call it nine year ten month the yield at the dutch auction, 2 .27% about four basis points above where the one issued market was trading. pricing was messy. deminus, dog minus is the grade, and there weren't any internals that looked very good. the bid to cover was weak. tin directs were weak. the only thing that even matched up with the ten auction average was direct bidders at 17 % dealers took nearly 19%, the biggest amount since april of

as we toll you, investors turned tail this afternoon when jay powell said what the futures have already been telling us, a 50 basis point hike in benchmark interest rates is on the table for the may meeting. that's on the table. listen. >> it is appropriate, in my view, to be moving a little more quickly. i also think there's something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate -- [inaudible conversations] points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. we make these decisions at the meeting, but i would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the may meeting. liz: we need to look at the intraday charts, we are at the lows of the session. powell's remarks are were released around 1:00 eastern. there's the dow jones industrials, a loss of 358. fresh loss for the s&p, down 65, and for the nasdaq, i'm checking these in realtime, the new low down 287. the fed funds futures are now pricing in a 98 chance of a 50 basis point hike on a may 4 and are bet on the same for the two meetings after that. we've got major developments in t

moments ago we heard from jay powell. markets were looking a liliesless, we're getting building momentum to the downside. we know the fed has to be aggressive. we know they will hike 50 basis points, maybe 75 basis points. we know all this. every time we hear from one of the officials it sting as littls a little bit, doesn't it. >> the world is changing right in front of our eyes. it has been 70 years essentially of peace since world war ii. i think escalation across europe is biggest risk for markets, biggest risk for global growth and uncertainty. we're watching that. we're telling our clients what is happening overseas as awful as it is make sure that doesn't affect you here at home. own the right names and use hedges in your portfolio but for us, charles, it is the geopolitical risk. charles: david, thank you very much, always appreciate it. and we'll be right back. ♪. ♪ ♪ we all need a rock we can rely on. to be strong. to overcome anything. ♪ ♪ to be... unstoppable. that's why the world's largest companies

fed chair jay powell indicated a likelihood of aggressive half-point rate hike but the next meeting and made to try to calm inflation rate here with me now chief adjustment strategy, markets good to see you. >> thanks cheryl but. >> responded sharply to comments on thursday. >> all but confirmed not that participants hadn't anticipated that. some of the betting markets around what the fed rate hike might look like a mate let alone go out to the next meeting as well. rose spoke of it so it's way to occur. realizing this very aggressive posture for the foreseeable future until we start to see those in fleishman readings trimmed out isn't if in fact we do pray. >> the big? will they start to ease? is inflation a four-year high at march at 8.5%. we don't know when that will abate. the same subject goldman sach's timeout recession 35% this is the talk of the second half of the year it is in boardrooms it's on coffee breaks and businesses. it is looming that's kind of baked already in. >> i think it is or some threat that markets were digesting a few weeks ago when the yield curve albeit brie

. >> none of the economics which is one of the problems jay powell will have we talked to jim who is probably one of the deeds of business now. other than housing, i mean, there's a big famine story developing all right. and, you know, the fed is not going to be able to control it they can't even get us a circus. >> i'm trying to get the transitions from demand. >> what i'm saying is jay powell you look at the fed their stuck with control in housing. they can't control auto. they can't control food. >> right. >> they can't control the price of aluminium these are supply constraints i'm saying listen to the fed's show today, i know that jay is watching every minute. he would say i don't know. what do i do >> hi, jay >> solve the war in ukraine. and, by the way, you say that, you know, if you say putin gave up on mariupol. >> i think quite the opposite. >> exactly the opposite. this is a stalin grab and a tractor factory. it's a matter of time. >> yeah. >>> we'll watch for powell this afternoon. see a few pluses this afternoon, perhaps. we'll talk to calvin mcdonald of lululemon. talki

what did we learn about the fed that we did not know >> i think jay powell's comments yesterday that the labor market is hot is suggestive that the fed thinks they can get really aggressive in raising rates and not cause people to lose their jobs so we have got now the market all of a sudden pricing in not only a 50-basis point rate hike for may 4th but a 75 basis rate hike in june and another 50 basis point hike inial that would be the most we have seen since 1982, 42 years ago. >> i will say, though, that cleveland fed president loretta mester who is a voter, was just on with us a few moments ago she said she's not there on 75 does not want to see a shock like that. i do feel like she's more closely aligned with the center of the fed and the chair than say a jim bullard. is that wrong? >> no, it's not wrong. you know, the fed may not be there yet. but also, this is part of who is leading the fed. is it the market that's leading the fed or the fed leading the market if the market is going to price in 75 basis points and leave it there, we might see the fed average move, that's the p

you heard from jay powell and others after those minutes. >> my colleagues and i may well reach the conclusion we will need to move more quickly. >> faster is better an extreme aggressive rate path is appropriate today. >>>> it is appropriate to raise interest rates at 50 basis points paid i think we should do that. >> 50 basis points is going to be an option we will have to consider. >> maybe 50 helps. i'm open-minded. >> 50 basis point moves will be in the mix. >> i don't think 50 basis points should be off the table. >> it could be 25, it could be 50. >> deliberate, methodical hikes. >> starting to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace. >> the economy is very strong and well positioned to withstand taper monetary policy. rishaad: i should have said these are federal reserve official comments after the meeting to you can see how the language has become more hawkish. haslinda: you are right. the pboc is valley to use market policy tools at an appropriate time. china is looking at slowing economy, slowing property market , slowing consumption as well. it has said it will set up a stability

powell speaking in tandem with christine lagarde. real yields and to meet this really is one of the underpinning stories of assets. real yields are almost zero for the first time going back to the heart of the pandemic in 2020. are we just waiting for that inevitability. jonathan: tk, are you doing your taxes? tom: that was mike from a helicopter pad. he says strong and weak currency. this is a really serious thing. currency pairs are one way or the other way. the canadian bonus round is both ways. the answer is the only way to say this in english is to say japanese yen is weak, not up. we are sticklers for that unless we are from london, where we quote it differently. jonathan: we have missed each other. the derating has been most severe while defensive areas have actually seen multiples expand. this has been a theme for the team at morgan stanley did big defensive shift beneath the surface of the equity market. dan, you have been right. this defensive shift. whether there is a tactical opportunity to lean the other way. what would

jay powell in his first speech in jackson hole gave his first speech about our star and how difficult it is to guide a shift, or even policy with these traditional guideposts food that is becoming true right now. something in this meeting, i suspect not only will we get something in terms of discussion, but certainly a lot of questions for jay powell and that press conference afterwards. >> president biden has already moved to tackle one major inflation driver, energy prices, to release extra oil reserves. the former secretary of -- says washington should commit to buying back. he told bloomberg that what's send a powerful message. >> i think the president should stop, stop all talk of windfall profit taxes as the single most important thing he can do to incentivize oil companies. the use of the strategic petroleum reserves is a good idea, but i would favor doing get in a different way. the government can lock in profit. whether government should do is sell the soil, and commit to a buyback of oil using the forward market at the substantial discount that is available. so, the governme

much more "mad money" made investors are hoping jay powell is looking for a soft landing and smooth landing sometimes it's not where you might expect we got to do a special edition of the lightning round stay with cramer [sound of helicopter blades] ugh... they found me. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people have their money just sitting around doing nothing... that's bad, they shouldn't do that. they're getting crushed by inflation. well, i feel for them. they're taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ good to have you back, old friend. yeah, eyes on the road, benny. welcome to a new chapter in investing. [ding] e*trade now from morgan stanley. ♪ ♪ at cdw, we get today your hybrid organization depends on different networks, different devices and different ways of working. so how do you manage to keep everything together? cdw can orchestrate a cisco sase solution or secure access service edge. converging security and frictio

we know fed chair jay powell has been keyed into this as a sign of looking at how much inflation has ramped up. jonathan: looking forward to that this morning. tom: the only equivalent in recent fed history would be john williams in new york. jonathan: cpi 7.5 percent. core cpi in europe still has a three handle. tom: you are killing me. you know how i feel on this. i have trouble with the parsing of inflation data. i'm sorry, what does it mean for the households? answer is the big number, everyone is getting crushed by core cpi. jonathan: amazon is down seven 5% . tom: jonathan: let's start with the earnings. can you reconcile the earnings in america with the worry over the future? >> you can talk about the wall of worry. we track 34 markets and only seven over the past week were up. the market is very worried now. all of the issues from the companies you talked about will way on the u.s. but it will affect what happens over the next three months. tom: are you looking out over the uncertainty of a rising earnings and focused on the gloom? do you just look out beyond that? >> we try

we will also hear from federal reserve chair jay powell at the debate on the global economy tomorrow. mark, the fed -- the fed can't -- can they say we are not going to cause a recession? it was unprecedented stimulus, unprecedented balance sheet blowout and money prohibiting and now they act like they have it under control, do they? >> dagen, no, that was my hashtag when i was talking about coming on with you. one inflation, they created the inflation. government spending and money printing created the inflation. it's in the inflation like we think of inflation from the 70's, that's demand pull. this is simply currency debatchment, currency devaluation and that's why prices are rising. the idea, technically, dagen, they are right, we are not going to cause a recession because we are probably in a recession, we are probably already feeling after-effects of too much stimulus and too much partying and the hangover is set to come in. first-quarter gdp numbers close to zero. we are likely to see retrenchment in activities and we will have tough times, i will take the under on that, by the

jay powell and christine lagarde speak today. tom: the money markets now pricing in 325 basis point hikes from the ecb by the end of the year. we will get into that shortly. a selloff in the peripheries but also german boones as well. use all repricing in the other direction yesterday when it comes to u.s. sovereigns, you had bank of america saying maybe there is a buying opportunity but how does this hawkish ms. from the ecb flow across to the fed and the right cycle there? markets expecting 50 basis points in may and june, some even suggesting another one in july as well of 50 basis points. the ftse 100 lower by .2%, the cac 40 higher by .2% with that presidential debate and the pull suggesting president macron came out ahead after going head-to-head with marine le pen. the final vote is sunday. the ftse in italy is lower by 27 basis points, range bound on the benchmark earnings. we will pick out some of the individual members in the u.s.. tesla had is very strong earnings. futures estate with gains of .4%, u.s. yields currentl

ritika: federal reserve chair jay powell has outlined his most aggressive roach to taming inflation to date. he has potentially endorsed two or more half percentage point increases and he described the labor market as overheated. he says there is strong demand. they clamped down by the u.s. and its allies is -- to cut russia's access to imports. gina raimondo's as the russian military is having trouble finding fuel for all of their tanks and rocket mounting systems. the stock market is urging the indexes to buy more shares. elon musk's attempts to buy twitter have become more real. he has raised more than 20 $5 billion in debt financing. he plans to contribute another 21 billion dollars of his own money. reno may sell part of its share in nissan to pay for the companies to electric vehicles. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> today, i am announcing another $800 million to further augment ukraine's fight in the east in the donbass region. this includes heavy artillery weapons, dozens of howitzers, and wondered 44,000 rounds of ammunition to go with those howitzers. jonathan: the president of the

ed: a sharp reversal, jay powell saying a 50 point hike is on the table for a ticket to the market, thinking about the path forward and how aggressive the path will be. we saw yields rise, bringing down the equity markets for the nasdaq 100. bright spot, though, tesla closing up 3%. it had been up as much as 11%, biggest jump since january. looking at how the stock traded, it kind of just about made it to a 3% gain but as the market fell away and yields rose, we saw the tech stocks giveaway with tesla being the standalone gainer with twitter being another big story. we will go through those developments throughout the show but the main takeaway is that it is off 10% with secured financing options on the table where he is ready to negotiate and there is great reporting to come for the steps he's taken. digging into this after hours, just crazy moves, snap. we are 6% higher after hours. they had been softer on topline growth and user growth than was expected. marginally softer talking about how advertisers hold back because of the war in ukraine and the guidance for the second quarter is a bit

jay powell came out at the most recent press conference. i don't know how many times he said, "we're going to fight inflation. it was just about the answer to every question, "we're going to fight inflation. it's because 2-year is dragging. >> you made some interesting call on the stock market let me turn to that. you said stocks were wildly overvalued by most metrics you said you expect the nasdaq to underperform the s&p 500. >> it already is. >> and you expect europe to outperform explain what the thinking is. >> well, the nasdaq is very, very volatile, and it's had the same type of run into, say, september of last year, as it had into the latter part of 1999 it's very, very bad in terms of its upinternals. as the nasdaq pushed to new highs, the percentage of companies in the nasdaq that were above their 200-day moving average fell precipitously this was the warning sign that the market was running on steam the fourth quarter of last year. >> we're running out of time but i want to get your call on the dollar you made a bold call on the d

jay powell said, we are going to form a similar playbook to last time. brain already saying it's going to be faster and bigger. omar sharif saying that it could be up to 120 billion. i will up your call from deutsche bank. the balance sheet is twice the size as it was in 2014. manus: of course. we did choke on $50 billion and had to go into rapid reversal. it's a very different economic scenario at the moment. my last guest said you had quantitative tightening. the deutsche bank note is phenomenal. big shout out to valerie who grabbed it. 3.3%. i'm going to be working forever. dani: we want you to work forever. manus: this scale in velocity -- no. no. you don't want me to work forever. we want to whiz through the cross asset check. there's a bond -- not tantrum. there's a repricing at the moment. repricing which is tolerable. the highest rates since 2015 in the short end of the curve. i've been criticized already for calling it a volker style shock. it's a narrative. not necessarily fist -- 50 basis points but it's the narrative that is this volcker styl

>> when jay powell was asked that question, it was a very challenging answer. i think it is difficult to get economics slowing with an immaculately flat unemployment rate. maybe that is possible, maybe we will be able to find some pockets of labor that are not tapped yet, but i think it is going to be challenging. the possibility that we might see a higher unemployment weight -- rate, which often builds on itself and generates meaningful recessionary pressures is a distinct possibility. >> you mentioned the possibility of recession. where you put that possibility at? >> globally, it is around one third. the geopolitical situation, the energy situation is very severe. in the united states we are insulated, but alan greenspan once said that the united states cannot long remain an island of prosperity and stability in a world that is struggling. when i think about the situation coupled with the federal reserve potentially hiking rapidly, maybe one in four over the next 16 months, it is significant. dani: nathan sheets speaking there. let's turn to russia and the c

just as we have a roster of fed, jay powell talking ahead of the quiet period, how far are they willing to go given some of the uncertainty we saw from the china economic data? jonathan: powell later this week a looking forward to it. let's get straight to the market compensation with russ koesterich. yields are higher, the curve steeper, banks are struggling. why? russ: good morning. i think there are a few reasons creating headwinds for the banks. yes, the curve is a bit steeper today, but as we all know, 2's/10's much flatter over the last three or four months, and that is a headwind for banks, particularly smaller regional banks. the cases we will not see a recession, but to state the obvious, we have more and more investors, more and more people talking about it. if you are worried about a recession, banks are not the obvious play. finally, lily the issue that is top of mind for most investors is inflation. if you go back and use history as a playbook, there are other parts of the market -- energy, natural resources -- that have been better hedges than the financials. i think the u