tom: kailey leinz and for jonathan ferro. right now -- kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro. right now, across the landmass of ukraine and the sea of ukraine, the black sea, is maria taddeo in luxembourg. what is the body language of the ministers in luxembourg? is it like 1939 frankly of pending more? maria: well, i would say the war is already happening and they are very aware of it. they worry about this potentially spilling over from ukraine and that has been clear. there are two things happening, one is we have the austrian chancellor going to moscow to meet with vladimir putin. that is making a lot of things -- people nervous. until now the european union has been united in their message or they worry this could change. i have an official who said this is not a time for amateurs. they also worry about the battle for donbas. tom: what is so important is quietly over the weekend, and mr. stubbs, the former prime minister, and friend of the show, made clear, i am shocked at the discussion of finland, of eu, finland, of nato. could that happen? maria: it could happen and it

trading, this is bloomberg be open with jonathan ferro -- the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the big issue, wrapping up earnings on wall street. >> the underperformance of banks -- >> banks seem to go down. >> you have to watch those costs. >> it is the r word. >> now it is not an issue of statistically higher rates, giving banks breathing room. >> banks are emblematic of a broader issue. >> a strong resurrection of the

this is bloomberg surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. futures are flat on the s&p and up a tent on the nasdaq. but there's only one stock to talk about. netflix is getting hammered. tom: it is really fundamental. some would say from the 50's and 60's, the new idiot box. streaming is strader this morning. jonathan: stocks are down this morning. they are explained to investors that they have gone against growth. any potential growth. largely, somewhat, how did this get out of their control? tom: we are going to do a lot of sophisticated financial review of that over the next day and coming days, but there is a point where growth switches to cath flow -- cash flow. can i make the switch that comcast did years ago? jonathan: when you thing about valuations you think about the real yield in the body -- body -- bond market. lisa: people a been watching this because it changes the dynamic. to put this in perspective, real yield was positive. it was normalcy. now it is an abnormal see, but we are getting back to that place. how does that move th

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the united states taking another big step away from this pandemic. tom: it really says that things are getting back to normal. it was great to have the doctor on with us from john's hot ins. there's that symbolism. no masks on airplanes. jonathan: the performance this year, dreadful. down 44% year to date. tom: i keep looking at the fa screen and go back to this on another property, where's the profit on netflix? it's not like amazon. it's not like apple. i go to j&j is just as important. j&j has a tepid view forward. jonathan: where's the revenue growth for the likes of netflix and our people cutting back. is that discretionary spend on things like this. lisa: that financial times article this morning about how u.k. subscribers are cutting their netflix at the fastest pace on record. it was a number of the others including apple tv. at what point do we see these types of discretionary spends being the victim of higher living. jonathan: dollar-yen. in the face of some verbal intervent

with tom keene, lee sabra >>, and jonathan ferro -- lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city on tv and radio, waiting for some economic data and america. futures just about positive on the s&p, up by 0.06 percent. on the nasdaq 100, up about 0.1%. with your economic data on the housing market in america, here's mike mckee. michael: we are getting some numbers on housing starts and building permits, and they do seem to have gone up. building permits -- well, give me just a second because housing starts are up by 0.3%. that is acing for can decline from the 3.8% the month prior in march, and the total number has been revised in march to 1,000,806 to 5000 on an annual rate -- 1,865,000 on an annual rate. so we saw a stronger march then we had seen before, and that makes the percentage change for a stronger february, and the percentage change for march a little more. building permits are up by about 0.4%. the shortfall in housing in the united states, whether or not the fed is going to be cooling that market, we have seen e

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. futures up on the s&p, with fact of the park. we can talk about that later. what a move in that. tom: it's an extra neri moment. stay with us for the morning as we give the best coverage we can on this international debacle. i will be linking in matt levine of bloomberg's phenomenal effort on bill hwang with the japanese ministry of finance. wang was and is trying to corner a market. he tried to corner 10 selected stocks and move them up and up in a leveraged way and we talked about this before the show, japan's government is trying to corner the jgb market by eyeing in more paper, keeping control of the yield. what is the difference? jon: the doj probably -- doj probably. the action of the boj is in conflict with the japanese finance ministry. on the same day minister, official from the mi

jon: i'm jonathan ferro, equities bouncing back by more than 1%. the earnings of far, pretty decent after the close. tom: you are dead on about what do i focus on the way from the news we have. you and i chatted up david

coming up, -- lisa abramowicz and tom keene, jonathan ferro is off today. our special coverage from the international monetary fund, stay with us. ♪ nd, stay with us. ♪ >> the surprise of the first four tough months of the year are resilient of how big equities have been. >> it's a good time to own volatility. >> inflation is primarily a concern for the first quarter earnings reporting season. >> we are late cycle. how late are we in the cycle and how much pressure on corporate profits? >> the question remains, can the markets still go higher? >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene, it is "bloomberg surveillance" but decidedly different today. from washington and the headquarters of the international monetary fund, thrilled to have you with us on radio and television and on a most historic time. jonathan ferro's off today. forget about him. what is so important here is

jonathan ferro's off today. forget about him. what is so important here is not a crisis or a war but a set of crises i've never seen. the number of them in the three-dimensional space is a certain area. lisa: you frame it perfectly. we are dealing with the pandemic and now war and then we are dealing with inflation and the trick a lot of facts of all of these escalating prices -- crises. how do you grapple with that as a monetary system is turned on its head with unprecedented actions by central banks, unprecedented inflation in many areas of your life. tom: without question, this is the most packed day. we have bank earnings out, we saw wells fargo, should ali bostick -- sonali bostick's work there. and yes we will do twitter and elon musk but we are focused on the set of crises and we see it with the food inflation and numerous countries right now. i think what we want to do is get right to the morning brief. let's do that with kriti gupta. ritika: let's talk -- gerard: let's talk about what we are going to expect with some of

with tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i am ritika gupta. a long anticipated russian offensive has begun. russian forces are said to be targeting the region in the eastern part of the country. the assault is taking place along the front of more than 300 miles. it's a fresh blow to russia's billionaires. president vladimir putin signing off on legal amendments -- to reconfigure the structure of businesses they hold by overseas shares. u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen will participate some sessions. they are backing of any suggestions that they would boycott meetings if russia takes part. she will attend others focused on the economic fallout from russia's invasion of ukraine. china is grappling with a record financial outbreak. 25 million people living in shanghai. the company is currently interviewing banks in march. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 cou

this is bloomberg "the open," with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the big issue. global bonds. >> something in the bond market. >> we saw a tremendous backup in yields. >> demands for bonds is evaporating quickly. >> yields keep going higher. >> not easy out there for bond investors at the moment. >> fed investors -- the fed is coming in with more hawkish talk. >> when you see yields do what they have done so far this year -- >> it has been the worst start to the

jonathan ferro is off today. kailey leinz is very much in. 30 minutes away from a new statistic. 8% is the threshold we are crossing for the first time since the early 1980's. and inflationary shock. now what? tom: this is my fault. i am wrong here. what percentage of america has never seen this statistic? lisa: how does this translate to a shift in consumer behavior, consumer perception, how can businesses sustain what is expected to be 8.4 percent consumer price inflation for the month of march? tom: the makeup will matter, and i will leave it to michael mckee to tell me what the fed looks like. the answer is pce matters be made to the american public, that doesn't matter. it is stunning inflation. lisa: we are talking this week about the u.s. heading into the ecb and imf discussions on thursday, as we look at inflation in the u.s. and globally. the u.s. has the momentum that the rest of the world does not. what kind of lead over are we seeing into the rest of the world? sri lanka saying they are halting dollar

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: good morning. a pivotal week starts with a yield spike. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. jon ferro, tom would say, is on sabbatical. i will say it is vacation. kailey leinz is with us this morning. we've got the q1 earnings kicking off, the ecb meeting on thursday. how much is the scenes that are really 10-year gilts rising to the highest going back to 2019? tom: all we have done is set the table this morning. one is that in flirt -- is that important inflation report tomorrow. there is some data. all you have to do is look at the headline data, 8.4%. i guess that is a boom nominal gdp for a while, but then what? lisa: is it headed upward? how much upward? or is this the plateau, the peak? wednesday's earnings kickoff may be more important to markets given the forward look then even the cpi report. tom: there is a great division here. there's people looking at an average 5% earnings growth, people who underplayed it. mike wilson's the

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures bouncing up back 0.2% on the s&p. tom: a bit defensive over the last week. gloom is front and center. for the gloom crew, this is a must watch 30 minut

i'm jonathan ferro. tom: what i'm looking at today is a set of inflation statistics that say inflation is here. how about gold. we just had a new high on corn. there's all these indicators of prices up. jonathan: the conversation on wall street is moving. maybe the mechanical peak is. ultimately this story will persist through the year hit. they think that's going to start hitting growth and earnings as well. tom: to me the thing in the economic notes that there is this game wrapped into the fed parlor game of what is the timing of a presumed the client in inflation. i guess we have evidence that's presumed. jonathan: we can play the fed parlor game. banks aren't rallying on that story. they aren't rallying on that whatsoever. the numbers at b of a this morning, it's a miss on investment banking revenue. look at the performance of stock in the premarket. that's a stock that's been hammered over the last month. lisa: it's not enough to shake the feeling that sin wall street. you have an increase in yields

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. it is technology earnings day, the beginning of the onslaught. a wonderful guest coming up on innovation and the rewarding of technology. microsoft will state. jonathan: we will hear from alphabet, amazon, and apple through the week as well. those names making up 40% of the nasdaq 100. they are big animals and this is a big week for that particular index. it is down hard on the month, down much more so on the year. tom: we will do what we have always done, we just take a bigger, broader picture. patrick armstrong to join us on the bigger view of technology. from where you sit and with your london heritage, how alone is america with big tech? jonathan: i think they speak for themselves. think of the big tech names. that was the story in the last 10 years. that's why there was a u.s. bias when it came to equity exposure, because that's where those names were. this year, that is where the weakness has been, not the strength. tom: with everything going on in the central bank derby, we hav

i'm jonathan ferro. tom:

trading, this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. >> the job of orchestrating a soft landing. >> trying so hard. >> the fed knows it is late. >> they need to normalize as quickly as possible. >> the fed's path to a soft landing has narrowed. >> the fed has to choose between one of two mistakes. >> there is a risk the fed under tight ends. >> go too fast or slow. >> what is worse? >> it seems unlikely we will be able to avoid a harder landing.

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, jonathan ferro. wrapping up the month of april, the week as well, with the nasdaq down more than 2% on the session. on the month, down almost 12%. on the year, down on the nasdaq 100 by almost 20%, going into a massive week for equities and bonds alike. for the bond market, the employment cost index lighting a fuse underneath yields on the front-end going into the fed next week. if you thought this week was big, the next is even bigger. a host of fed decisions on deck and central-bank decisions including the rba and vanke of england. we hear from the fed chair on wednesday. u.s. payrolls report this coming friday one week from today. let's get to matt hornbach, bob miller, kathy jones for the rapidfire round. you know how this works. three quick questions and answers. let's start with where does the fed peak this hiking cycle? pick a number. matt hornbach. matt: 3.75%. jonathan: kathy jones. kathy: 2.75%. jonathan: bob miller. bob: i will take the middle. 3%. jonathan: there we go. second question. h

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.8% on the s&p. the situation in china shaking things up big time. tom: i think china really has a profound impact today, but there's also some real nervousness not t

i am jonathan ferro. futures up .5% on the s&p. kicking off q2 with payrolls just around the corner. the range anywhere from zero up to 700,000. that is the range of estimates for payrolls this morn

this is bloomberg "the open," with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york we begin with the big issue, pricing in a growth slowdown. >> this is the markets readjusting. >> the inversion of the yield curve. >> pretty strong signal we are facing some kind of significant slowdown. >> when the current gets inverted. >> the economy is dried today but it may not be in the future. >> i am very impressed and quite honestly surprised at how resilient equities have been. >> the equity market is balancing, yes there is greater risk of recession. >> one other thing. >> the possibility things continue on for

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. for our audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. it could be one of the biggest internet acquisitions ever. bloomberg lynch twitter is in the final stretch of negotiations about a $43 billion sale to elon musk. an agreement could be reached as soon as today of negotiations go smoothly. musk met with twitter executives sunday. the company started warming up to a potential deal after a financing plan. secretary of state antony blinken and defense secretary lloyd austin met with ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy in kyiv late sunday night and promised more military aid. the u.s. also says it would start sending diplomats back to ukraine. in france, emmanuel macron has won another shot at convincing the public that his pro-business, pro-european vision can for them. he beat nationalist marine le pen with more than 58% of the vote. macron acknowledged much o

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. mr. ferro on sabbatical but kailey leinz joins us. sweden and finland make history talking about joining the eu and nato. is a huge deal with finland. we have weak yen. the dollar is in a churn off the inflat

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a ton of tech earnings coming right up. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures positive by 1.4% on the s&p. after the close, amazon and apple. tom: we have been distracted this morning with a lot of macro babble. chris verrone with weekend -- with weak yen out to 150. i was wrong on facebook. they delivered in spades. i loved what dan ives of wedbush said. they get a pop this morning off the user growth and stability. jonathan: lost almost 50% so far coming into the earnings story, so certainly a pop up of pretty depressed expectations. speaking of growth, mcdonald's just out, sales for the first quarter plus 11.8%. tom: the key now, if you look at paragraph 42, it will mention a little bit of road trip there by mcdonald's, sales and all of that. it comes back down to if they can raise prices. it comes down to a number to value meal at

tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene on radio. it is a tuesday of extraordinary inflation, that report in 90 minutes, michael mckee leading the coverage on the agony of a nation with inflation. it permeates every aspect of our economics. lisa: a complicated issue, because you talk about the pain and it is painful for the individuals but the dynamism of corporate america with bank earnings with j.p. morgan, how much does this dissonance yield something close to a downturn versus a tale of two parts, the haves and have-nots? tom: the have-nots not doing well with the global and american recession. the world trade organization gets out front of imf world bank -- lisa and i will be in washington in a few days -- and the gauging of recession worldwide is a big deal. wto doesn't call for recession but with every bit of work i've ever done, 2.8% global gdp by every measurement i've ever heard models global recession. lisa: you look at how big the downward revision is, 4.1% to 2.8%. we've seen these types of revisions downward to global g

i am jonathan ferro. teachers are positive on the s&p. netflix stock is down by 27%. tom: it's not just down, it is the way it is down. they have not found a way to recalibrate. this is 27%, maybe 20%, moments ago to 252. that is a level -- this is a stocking cast. we can talk about it all our. we are not going to do that. boy, what a lesson be and what a structural shift for the industry. jonathan: nathanson asking the right question britt is a cheaper to step in. they argue, not yet. the price target is not far away. 25331. the previous price target was 350. previous close, 348. tom: as i sat with alex web and les sour, i'm going to go to what the others do that don't have the netflix power. what is paramount plus do this morning? jonathan: what is the pricing content now, that you have a big content buyers saying we don't see the growth. lisa: the death of content is king. it is all about buying the right content, and the skies your limit. have we seen a shift in that? i keep wondering, how much is this a specific story to netflix and the reopening tray. how much i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures bouncing up back 0.2% on the s&p. tom: a bit defensive over the last week. gloom is front and center. for the gloom crew, this is a must watch 30 minutes because we are going to talk to people that are pushing against all of the gloom that is out there. jonathan: we will catch up with dan ives of wedbush on his big tech call as well. i think earnings season is taking on a new importance when we kick things off next week. tom: we are jumping into next week with the event of the show. scott brown, raymond james, adamant yesterday that it is not as bad of people think. he suggests the glass is half-full. jonathan: next week's cpi in america looking for something north of 8%. then we have the earnings season kicking off in the ecb decision in the mix as well. lisa: it is good news, bad news. i will get raked over the coals for this because optimism is wonderful to have. i will say that right now, earnings are really robust, if margins continue to expand, if companies continue pass

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. mr. ferro on well-deserved sabbatical. kailey leinz doing double duty this morning. thank you for joining us this morning, on radio and tv. with the news flow, the inflation report tomorrow come our trip to washington scheduled for thursday. you know what? the markets matter, and they are moving. lisa: and it is not just. the imf on. thursday we also have the -- not just the imf on thursday. we also have the ecb meeting. we see the 10 year yield in the united states reaching the highest levels since the heart of the pandemic. but it is also german yields, the highest since 2015. just to put into perspective how significant this move is, at one point we were talking about negative yields in germany on the 10 year early in march, and now talking about almost 0.8%. tom: i'm not going to sit on a data check right now. we will do that in a bit. but the 10 year yield is front and center this morning. wow, have we come to a smaller negative statistic. lisa: is thi

jon: i'm jonathan ferro, equities bouncing back by more than 1%. the earnings of far, pretty decent after the close. tom: you are dead on about what do i focus on the way from the news we have. you and i chatted up david konstantin after his 10:00 effort with bloomberg and this guesstimate of earnings growth is underreported right now. it is a mystery. jon: you made the point on global nominal growth this year and next year and perhaps that is still things for earnings. tom: i sound like a fossil and might lead fossil was the giant folk array of pioneer group. i think he died at 104 and it was mr. caray, dressed me -- trust me. he would action me on the bright lights of inflation. it is a different glow and those younger are getting used to this new glow. jon: the numbers from last week from delta, tremendous, after united airlines comedies and. american airlines this morning. lisa: american airlines shares up 7.6% after reporting earnings , basically they see second quarter total revenue of 6% 8%, which is higher than the second quarter of 2019 so

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.8% on the s&p. the situation in china shaking things up big time. tom: i think china really has a profound impact today, but there's also some real nervousness not about the weather companies like coke moments ago, but lots of other companies on what they will deliver. this is a tape with a lot of nuance that needs to be followed tick by tick. jonathan: just how low is the bar for big tech? tom: i'm going to channel dan ives here. what a great value he has been to "surveillance." there's two worlds of tech out there. i strongly agree on that. you've got to parse each and every company. are they in the profit makers, the structurally sound makers, or are they not? jonathan: coca-cola out just moments ago. lisa: they just slammed expectations. earnings-per-share coming in at zero dollars

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the big issue. the fed under pressure. >> how high does the fed have to hike? >> cpi headline inflation. >> the fed will try to be data-dependent. >> the market from a pricing standpoint -- >> suggest there is a 50 basis point hike on the horizon. >> they will do 50 basis points. >> inflation will be insane for march. >> the fed is keen on transporting the rate hikes. >> the fed is

this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. quarterly beats getting little reward. >> earnings are not that bad. >> individual company earnings look solid. but that is not helping the share prices right now. >> we are seeing many different types of reaction depending on earnings. >> any slight earning guidance, weakness, they are sold. and they are sold hard. people are not asking questions, they are just saying adios. >> it was already pessi

tom: all the more reason to tune in with jonathan ferro on the real yield. it will be a uniquely inspired program. tina fordham is with us. we are thrilled she could join us after a strong debate over what the west should do. tina fordham, i can say in all my years of doing this, to have john bolton saying will washington get over it, they are not going to start world war iii. and alanna farkas saying, working with president obama, they are not going to start world war iii. absolutely extraordinary to see the common feature of your people saying washington, calm down, get focused. do you believe with bolton and farkas we are not going to start world war iii if we are more assertive? tina: i am not sure we are in control of the trajectory of events, and i think that is something that has been much underestimated regardless of the administration in power. no one expected putin to undertake these actions in contrast to russian interests. i think that putin once -- wants to drag the west in the conflict in ukraine and that would show his view of nato. the this i

this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from your city, we begin with a big issue, wrapping up the big week. >> it's a critical week. >> we've been on a roller coaster ride. >> earnings have been quite strong. >> what's not come in strong's forward guidance. >> instead a great backdrop. >> companies are reluctant to push guidance. >> we are seeing the big diversions between some of the winners and losers. >> there is a sense that there could be some demand obstruction. >> companies are bottomed out. >> some of the pins addition a -- positioning is negative.

ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone.

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. solid earnings colliding with worry. >> individual company earnings look solid. >> earnings have been quite strong. >> that is not helping share prices. >> the buy side was pessimistic into the earnings season. >> it is not a great backdrop. >> the yields keep going higher. >> things slow down in global economic growth. >> the environment is

this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. >> the five and the 10 year are starting to respond. >> this is the markets readjusting to a much faster pace. >> reiterating the fact that they want to move very quickly. >> they are trying to maintain inflation credibility. >> removal, they into that phase.

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. setting the stage for may. >> the fed governors are speaking more hawkish late. >> the fed minutes. >> 50 basis point rate hikes are on the table. >> they are likely to go 50 basis points in may. >> the market is welcoming these 50 basis point hikes. >> the may 4 meeting. >> the need to raise rates and start cutting down the sides of the balance sheet. >> they are

this is bloomberg: the open with jonathan ferro. live from new york city we begin with the big issue, kicking of big tech earnings. >> brutal your for big tech. >> you had that collapse in real yield which boosted valuations. >> we had such a run-up in tech. >> you have the reverse now. >> tech has been hit really hard since the start of the year. >> attack has been the area most punished by that combination of higher yields and inflation. >> the risk is the forecast is high. >> valuations are an issue. >> as real yield to positive territory. >> it is not a great outlook. >> the question is going to

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. looking ahead to chairman powell. >> is jay powell. >> to me the messaging is clear. >> normalize as quickly as possible. >> part of what the fed needs to do is tighten financial conditions. >> this process of the fed slowing down the economy is taking time. >> we are still far below any estimate of the neutral funds rate. >> a 50 basis point hike in the next meeting. >>

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from europe city, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. futures just about positive on the s&p, setting you up going into the weekend, with cpi and earnings in america. tom: it will be interesting to see earnings. ecb just as important. the market speaks volumes. i am looking at dollar, strong, persistent. with all of the angst about the french election, a 1.08 level, dollar-yen up to 1.24. if we see a 125, that is a signal of a resilient dollar. jonathan: that is the story below the equity market. look at the sector performance. there are some alarm bells ringing. it is the banks underperforming in not responding to higher interest rates. higher yields in the treasury market. tom: opening-day, red sox/yankees. it works. the bloom crew can work to up -- the gloom crew can point to a lot of micro data. tom: we can talk to the -- jonathan: we can talk to the bloom -- the gloom crew right now. lisa: next week we do get the cpi print. and then into ear

i am jonathan ferro. futures up .5% on the s&p. kicking off q2 with payrolls just around the corner. the range anywhere from zero up to 700,000. that is the range of estimates for payrolls this morning. tom: it will be a lot about wage growth and wage dynamics. the jobs report around the may 4 fed meeting is the mystery of demand destruction given the way prices are moving up in america. jonathan: inflation is skyhigh. on april 12, the next cpi, then onto may 4. the 50-basis point move from this fed. tom: this is massively not linear. i'll it dr. l arian and others talk about this. this 50 point move is not like the third or fourth or whatever andrew hollander's is talking about. jonathan: it's a consensus call for 50 back to back. that is the call on the street. i don't know a single bank that does not believe that. lisa: how much that does affect the narrative. frankly whether risk markets have priced this in. we were talking before this year about how an increase of the stature at this pace would disrupt capital markets dramatic

this is a bloomberg: the open with jonathan ferro. live from new york city, and yield curve inversion. >> the guilt curve inversion. >> the inversion of the yield curve raises the risk of recession. >> it is a more challenging environment for equities. >> it is telling us the economy is a strong today but may not be in the future. >> it is telling us that defense policy reaction function has moved toward fighting inflation. >>

on a friday when jonathan ferro is out, we are renaming this -- show yield curve because that's where unfocused. as you think about the fed and economists and analysts inking the fed needs to move -- thinking fed needs to move, is that what the further inverted yield curve today is telling you? >> it absolutely is. the economy is strong today, but it may not be in the future. this is where the debate is being had. 50 basis point rate hike in may and june is very much in the cards. eventually, i think the markets are also telling us through the yield curve that may be by late 2020 three or 2024, we may have a slowdown or even a recession. is also telling us the fed policy reaction function right now has moved very much toward fighting inflation which means if they don't get what they want, expect them to be even more hawkish. right now, we are expecting 2.8%. if we don't get inflation numbers down, they will move that up to 3% or as high is 3.5%. they will do whatever it takes to get inflation under control and if that means an inverted yield curve, they will do it. taylor: is that wha

lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keep you up-to-date with the first word, i'm lisa matteo. it is a major escalation in the standoff between russia and europe over energy supplies. moscow will cut off the flow of natural gas to poland and bulgaria. it is making good on a threat to halt gas flows countries who refuse to pay for the fuel in rubles. european gas prices rose more than 20%. china's president, xi jinping, is calling for an effort to boost infrastructure construction. it is beijing's attempt to rescue economic growth, the strategy may prove less effective because of markdowns used to get the coronavirus under control. the world's richest person cannot afford to take too many days like tuesday. elon musk's tesla plunged by more than $32 billion. investors gave their verdict by sending shares of tesla down 12%. musk has pledged some of his tesla state to secure the twitter deal. the senate has voted to confirm lael brainard as the vice chairman of the federal reserve. most republicans

on friday with a jonathan ferro. this was bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i am mark with first word news. the men who police have identified as a person of interest in the new york city subway shooting is now a suspect. frank james is still a large. the mayor spoke with bloomberg television today. >> based on the briefing of my law enforcement officials and based on the evidence we were able to accumulate, he has been updated to a suspect. we are asking you to assist in the apprehension. please do not approach him. if you see him or know about his whereabouts, please notify law enforcement. mark: police say keys found at the scene of the attack belonged to a u-haul van rented by james. lee say the suspect set off two smoke grenades on a manhattan bound train and then fired a nine millimeters handgun at least 33 times. ukraine's president is proposing to swap a tycoon wos