steve, thanks. steve liesman. we'll continue to monitor that event. >>> up next, earnings exchange the action, story and trades for apsn, amex and schlumberger. stay right there. you have a wen that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of lif

from what steve liesman is saying and what we know where various fed officials stand, including former fed officials, it seems, jeff, there's no reason to be in the market right now unless you believe full impact, a negative impact has been inflicted on the overall average and the markets have fully priced in this tightening, opposed to pockets of the market which karen is pointing out. >> yeah, i think that is very true but like karen we have to be long and we are long it's a matter to pick our spots to figure out where the market going from here. generally speaking, i tweeted this out yesterday, i basically said do these five to six, seven percent jerks back and forth on these individual names is indick ative of is that indicative of an early rally? -- if you're in and out of the market it's important to see the semis and q's and going down the list hold the moving day average. we attempted to break above it but that's a important question. you have nike and disney with damage as well they're not rallying from a position of strength maybe the best example is procla procl probably the

that's steve liesman you see the nasdaq today, guys, right? jenny, what am i supposed to do with technology? >> i only mentioned to you what the ark was doing and it wasn't looking good today it was taking on some water. what am i supposed to do with the techtrade if the rates are going to continue to go up and the it's been to continue. >> be super granular and say buy take and there is a big difference between snowflake and palo alto, a big difference between lemonade and i'm trying to think -- >> so i can buy -- >> cisco systems. >> so i can buy palo alto today. >> you can buy palo alto, cisco. >> snowflake was down 7% last i checked, but i can buy palo alto today. i can feel safe today? >> look, there's going to be movement and the volatile they you're likely to experience buying palo alto today should be a fraction of what the high octane tech is going to experience, and i think we're seeing that in so many -- let me pull up my screen, and i think we're seeing that in so many areas where you can look and see the high octane tech, docusign

breaking news at this hour let's getting right to steve liesman. steve, what do you got >> i have details of the fed's plans to reduce the balance sheet. in general they agreed on a $95 bill jon monthly runoff of the near $9 trillion balance sheet the federal reserve agreed to $60 billion in treasuries, $35 billion in mortgages these are actually caps on the amounts. they agreed to phase in those caps on that amount over a three-month period, or modestly longer if it's warranted by market conditions. the federal reserve saying that members are comfortable with high monthly caps or even no c caps prospecttively going forward, many see one or more 50 basis-rate hikes could be appropriate at future meeting. the fed will move more toward a neutral policy the fed will consider the sales of mortgage-back securities after the runoff is, quote, well underway this is part of the fed's ultimate goal to aim for a balance sheet primarily composed of treasuries. it bought treasuries and mortgages as part of the quantitative easing. it wants to get rid of those

breaking news at this hour let's getting right to steve liesman. steve, what do you got >> i have details of the fed's plans to reduce the balance sheet. in general they agreed on a $95 bill jon monthly runoff of the near $9 trillion balance sheet the federal reserve agreed to $60 billion in treasuries, $35 billion in mortgages these are actually caps on

liesman. what does the fed do about that? can it do anything >> rather than correct josh brown, i wanted to agree with him and tell him that it's worse than what he even laid out the two areas that the fed should have the most effect on autos and housing, i think are going to be very immune to any impacts of rate hikes and i'll tell you why i think we have this long-running, maybe longer than a decade undersupply of housing. you may get some topping off of housing prices i don't see them going down and changing the cpi input from housing in a meaningful way. the auto business is running a 13, 14 million units it should be normally at 16 or 17 million units i don't think the fed should or will have much effect on that part of the economy coming back, and i don't think, of course, you're absolutely right, melissa, it's not going to have any impact on the trade on the food side of things or on the energy side of things. what the fed can and should do is get to neutral, some form of neutral which

let's get your senior economics reporter steve liesman with more on this great rate debate especially following bullard's comments made to the one and only steve liesman and you're monitoring charlie, vans evans speaking now, steve. >> just turning down the volume on that. the economy should do well even in a rising -- he's talking about the economic club of new york has been monitoring it. he also sees the fed needs to monitor for the risk of a wage price spiral and the bullish outlook for evans dove tails with what bullard told me yesterday. he is one of the most hawkish and also pretty bullish on the economic outlook one of the more bullish ones bullard believes it should raid 3.5 basis points by year end and he thinks the u.s. will have above trend growth and declining unemployment >> that one was successful and did set up the economy for a stellar second half of the 1990s. one of the best periods in u.s. macro economic history so it was successful and in this cycle, was there a 75 basis point increase at one point. so i wouldn't rule it out and it's not my best case here >> he wa

dollar steve liesman is here with the latest steve. >> they have an enorming fed tightening and a policy rate that looks to go above neutral a lot of sun certainty about whether the new hawkish outlook will be enough to restrain inflation. and goldman sachs saying in a recent report, they made more base of tightening more than the high number they've already baked in they need to slow growth 1 and is a half to more than our below consensus 2022 forecast of 1.9%, delivering a higher terminal funds rate of 3.3% it seize it going from -- to 270 by december or above the fed's neutral estimate and a fed market with a terminal peek of 3.34% by december 2023 how do you get there the market has priced in 50 basis point rate hikes and a lot lower than friday but still a chance of 175 basis point hike again after that, 3, 25-basis point hikes with a chance of a 50 base point hike again 2.7 percentage points will be the fastest in a single year since the 1980s. if it doesn't show signs of improvement, the fed could go faster still >> thank you very much steve liesman. is the fed about to make a his

cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman. what do trends look like should we expect next month's data to be worse o is there relief ahead >> reporter: shep, this report was ugly showing higher inflation than we've seen in 40 years. we don't know if it's captured them when russia invaded ukraine, it set off price hikes. and those price hikes, companies and producers, first they may still be trickling down to the consumer there's also lockdowns in china. it's threatening more supply chain disruptions, maybe higher prices one bit of good news core goods prices unexpectedly fell 0.4%. used car prices are up 35% year over year. t t that jalopy, shep, still steep >> fed officials scheduled to meet next month as you know, steve. will they take more aggressive steps to beat back inflation in light of this? >> yeah, shep. they're going to take the most aggressive steps they've ever taken trying to slow the economy. for xample, the fed normally raised the rates very slowly, like 1/4 of a percentage point at every meeting every time. it

liesman is with us as you well let's check the markets. i want to show you yields and that is where the storyline lies in part because you did have a good jump in yields floeollowing the comments and 5%, 6% or so in many of the parts of the curve as you see there take a look at stocks. they're reacting a little bit and the nasdaq react 1.75% not all that much. not all that much, though. jim lebenthal, i got a call from some of the smartest money i know who said you've got to pay attention when the head of the dovish wing of the federal reserve says what she did today. rapid qt is coming and that's what lyle brainard said. you are my resident bull what do you think today? >> i'm still bullish, scott. let me start there the immediate future will continue this chop around the 4600 level on the s&p 500 and it's specifically around this tug-of-war between how fast is the fed going to tighten when will they start the quantitative tightening of it and can that -- i'm sorry, scott, what? >> in may. they're starting it in may >> okay. the point tha

very interesting okay, thank you, steve steve liesman. so how do you invest when there are so many questions about the health of the economy? should you put your money into safety plays or growth and the more volatile names? our next guest has a list of names to buy and avoid welcome back chief investment strategist with piper sandler. michael, welcome nice to see you. nice to be back in that beautiful room of yours. love it. talk to us about the market and whether now is the time to start nibbling at some of the more, the growthier names, the tech names or whether it's still time to play it safer >> sure. i think this year the mantra of the market is it's going to be going nowhere fast it's really a year of positioning. when the market is up 20 to 30%, it's less revant when it's flat, it's all about positioning. so as the world continues to slow, and i don't think as much of a debate about that the question is how long are we going to slow for and what's priced in and we think the answer to the first question is we're going to be slowing

cnbc's senior economics correspondent steve liesman is here how are people adapting to everything being more expensive, steve? >> shep, americans say they're doing what they always do when faced with higher prices or economic downturn, they're economizing in all sorts of ways in fact, 84% tell us they're doing something different to make ends meet amid the surge in inflation. 45% dipping into savings 56% planning to travel less. 59% are driving less the top way, cutting back on discretionary items like going to the movies, restaurants or concerts to be sure, we've seen higher percentages like this in the past of americans cutting back these numbers show the growing level of concern the key is whether there's a meaningful downturn in spending is whether these attitudes last. when it comes to inflation, there is plenty of blame to go around 69% accepted a big part of the problem is the supply chain bottlenecks and almost equal 66% say corporations taking advantage of the situation 55% are pegging the war in ukraine but about half the public puts the blame on president biden. >> steve, the

cnbc's senior economics correspondent steve liesman is with us. you know, few seemed overly worried about this number. why is that, steve >> yeah, shep. this was a false alarm all the things you care about in the economy that showed up in this report did well and added to growth. even the number that subtracted from growth, i'll get to that in a second, told you the economy remains healthy. consumer spending grew by 2.7% in the quarter that's after inflation, so it's a solid number business investment rose by 9.2%, also after inflation, and that's a terrific number it tells you businesses are investing in new machinery for the future okay, so business and consumer spending did well. how did we go negative we imported boatloads, planeloads and railroads of stuff from abroad. trade peeled a whopping 3.2% off of the gdp number there. so that's to say if you take out this massive trade subtraction and we have this oscillating back and forth because of opening and closing of ports with the pandemic, the number would have been solidly positive in fact t

thank you, steve liesman >> i just want to say one caveat i think what happened is the market's gotten angry here and said, you know what? the fed keeps moving the ball on us here and now we'll get out in front of it and that's where the market is right now. we're going price in even the remotest possibility i get why they've done it, but when they write this is a trial balloon, i don't think so. >> which market is doing it more is it the bond market or the equity market? i don't know >> all right, steve. have a good weekend. let's do this. let's hit a couple of other moves they want to get to before we move things forward here. degas wright, you have some moves that you made. did you sell square? is that one of the big moves that you made? whatever you want to call it >> yes exactly. one of the things we started looking at from a valuation perspective from the more risky companies to quality and so what we saw with square is that we graded square about a d in our grading process and we saw that the valuation was too high and it's 206 times earnings multiple also we were very concerned

let's get right to economics reporter steve liesman we had fed speakers today making headlines? >> fed speakers, movement in fed fund future, a lot going on, let me whip through it cheryl lee evans says he'll retire in early 2023 he'll hit that mandatory 653 retirement age and he'll look for him and find that new president. james bullard, the st. louis fed president who made headlines earlier this week saying this morning again, he's concerned about high inflation ask it can pull up inflation expect ation and he said the fed is behind the curve. speaking of the curve, we've had big movements in the outlook for the fed rate hikes let me show you here we now know that the december fed funds contract trading last i looked at 266. what's important about that is that's above the range that most fed officials say is where they want to get you by the end of the year so the market now trading higher than most fed officials are the highest rate here and you can see here it goes all of the way up, well above 3% and almost 4% by the middle of 2023. so we've had a big upward shift in this,

let's talk to steve liesman this morning. >> andrew, yeah. let's do the background. flirting with the zero line earlier this week and giving off a false negative the spread officially inverted yesterday. that is it went below zero with the longer dated yield was belo the shorter. some some thought it meant recession. others thought it meant nothing. it now stands 0.15% of the spread blink your eyes and it could be negative this is a concern because the markets think the fed will raise rates too high and too quickly prompting recession and prompting an easing. the trouble is recessions follow inversions from six months to two years later. start your clocks now. krishna guha wrote wethink the fed will not ignore the 2/10 spread, but should not and will not be overly influenced by the mild inversion on this particular metric. the fed focuses on a different spread the three month and two-year bond it is positive at the moment almost like the u.s. in the middle of the expansion. it reflects the fed rate hikes the next 18 months this spread inverts five months closer to re

steve liesman, where did they go >> what it means to be a dove on this very hawkish meeting, and in context, it just isn't that dovish clairol evans saying, i'm optimistic i can get to neutral. well, why is that important here that's where the market is priced you can see there, seeing a 3.1% funds rate by june evan says he thinking surging inflation now up there 8% will decline. he also cautioned, quote now, not to be outdone, his comments were offset by jim bullard, who said he wants to get the rate up to 3 or 3.25 by year end, which is on the hawkish side so the debate is going to 2.4 by yearened oar 3% or higher, which is as you say, the message has been shockingly consistent i think that's a great question i think we have a couple bad ones in front of us. it's supposed to be up near mid 8% range, but i think toward the end of the year, we start rolling off the balance sheet, i think that's when the debate will become more pronounced. that's where i think the -- >> either way neutral means well above 2%, so still a ways to go from here. >> right, exactly. >> thank you, steve. >>> our ne

steve liesman joins us now with more data. steve? >> the all american economic survey shows plenty of blame to go around. let me show you where inflation rank as mong top issues of the public and it is number one by far, number one at 48% up about 10 points from last survey ukraine war, first time, up 31%, it is the top one or two concerns of the public followed by immigration and border security, jobs and unemployment and crime and look at the coronavirus just 14% name it at the top issues for country that is down 25 points since october. take a look at the politics of this there is a series of issues that we could show you where the public is united and others will show you the wedge issues. democrats and republicans cost of living, pretty much agreement. how important it is. same with jobs but little further apart but still relatively close together on the issue of crime. now look at the wedge issues here immigration, border security, ukraine war much more concerning to democrats than republicans. and immigration and border securi

our senior economics reporter steve liesman has more on the internals. good morning, steve. >> good morning, carl. yeah, despite the missed march report showed strong job gains as the economy continued to recover from the covid slow down showed little signs of weakness related to the recent numbers rick just gave us. back to the other numbers. nonfarm payroll up 431 and looking for 490. unemployment rate ticking down more than expected, more than 3.6% we put people back to work that came back and labor force participation at 62.4 and strong hourly earnings at .4 and up revised 5i9d thousand with a 750,000 number in the month of february where the jobs were in march goods producing frong gains and construction and manufacturing doing quite well and then we have the rebound from the slow down restaurants and bars up 61,000 hotels up 21,000 and retail trade up 49,000. hospitality still down by more than a million job and labor market relmains extremely tight but we've seen 700,000 come back into the job market almost 2 million this year trouble is they are

. >> when we come back, steve liesman will join us with his latest cnbc all-american survey. we'll see what he thinks with president biden's handling of the economy. right now as we head to break, check out today's biggest premarket winners and losers this is leading by 2%. jb hunt and transport signature bank stay tuned you're watching quk x."sawbo we're live at the cnbc market in times square >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people have their money just sitting around doing nothing... that's bad, they shouldn't do that. they're getting crushed by inflation. well, i feel for them. they're taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ good to have you back, old friend. yeah, eyes on the road, benny. welcome to a new chapter in investing. [ding] e*trade now from morgan stanley. [copy machine printing] ♪ ♪ who would've thought printing...

steve liesman, how's it looking? >> interesting comments. we were hoping to see signs of peak inflation from the report the beige book saying that inflationary pressures are strong firms continue to pass swiftly rising costs on to consumers there were steep increases in transportation, materials and labor costs. this covers the beginning of the invasion of russia of ukraine. a few districts reported negative sales impacts from rising prices. consumers perhaps balking at the rising prices. new york reported it eroded consumer spending power and bad news where inflationary pressures expected to continue over the next coming months. employment increased at a moderate pace with strong demand for workers but couldn't hire them because it's held back by a lack of available employees. a recurring people in the beige book we have to see if that continues. firms report significant turnover as workers left for high every wages and mentioned footloose workers. wage growth strong and inflation contributes to higher wages. no relief at all in the chashlg

steve liesman and i talk about the state of the consumer. is the consumer strong is it not strong it seems to depend who you are talking to inflation is high, but consumers are traveling gain you hear great things from the airlines maybe not great things what are you making in general of the state of the u.s. con consumer >> that is accurate, courtney. not everybody is treated equally. the retail circle of life. everything was full price and inventory was tight. all of a sudden, now we're starting to see discounting at the time where inflation is coming up. we are talking about the fed and most of the brands are exposed to 20% to china. retailers are feeling it from every direction. you know, particularly from the cost side and now we run into the discount cycle that gap and we are starting to see that across the board the consumer is buying, but paying more. chipotle is charging 10% more. u unilever is charging 10% more. there is less to go around. >> before we get into the individual names, i guess what strikes me is the fact that once con

steve liesman has more steve, do you think they need to price in more? >> they could. they're now -- let's go through what they're pricing and deny enormous amount of fed timing this year, including multiple 50 base point hikes and a policy rate by year end that seeks to actively restrain economic growth the problem is, there's a lot of uncertainty whether this will be sufficient to restrain inflation. bank of the west writing we think the -- estimated around 1.8% a bit from here if they're going to make significant headway in reducing inflationary prices the fed sees it going to 190 by august 270 by december. or above the fed's neutral estimate then goes further with the market pricing in a peak, rate of 3.36 by november 2023 how do you get there you have 50 basis point rate hikes next three meetings priced in with some chance of a 75, though that is way down today. it was higher on friday. then you have 25 basis point hikes priced in over the last lee meetings, with some chance of a 50 in the numbers the expected rise in rates of 2.70 base points will be the fastest

b of a, 75 is the new 25 steve liesman, thanks. >>> these rising rates continue on pace. joining us today jason helpstein and steven cahill. good to see you, happy friday. jason, we're going to talk some individual names like snap but are rates once again rising in your universe of metrics that will drive your coverage >> yeah. i mean snap is interesting because it is only trading at a slight premium to the peers yet it is probably the fastest growing digital media company right now. and actually has potential to meaningfully get bigger if they could execute on their initiatives and fend off tiktok. >> but my question was we were just talking about macro and the fed and rates. to what degree is that overpowered micro corporate fundamentals. >> i think there is definitely concern on the fundamentals, particularly starting in europe and do we get spillover here so i think a lot of the fed has been priced into a lot of the tech names and really it is the update from the companies and how weak the outlook is, that is driving the stock. so on snap, i told you last night that b

liesman for more steve? >> hey, kelly. a lot weighing on consumers' minds and incredibly they continue to spend on inflation and this income and spending report showing the consumers are keeping pace with rising prices and then some and it was for the fed to hike 50 basis points as if it needed one here are the numbers and that's the nominal number and it had a bounceback in service spending which is what you would expect as it would move away from the omicron wave take away inflation and spending, and income up 0.5% and take away inflation and real income actually fell 0.4% and consumers hang on the balance by reducing the savings rate. the pce inflation index and that's the preferred inflation indicator hitting a new 40-year high of 6.6% year over year. dropping the 5.2 to 5.3, the first decline since november 2020 the eci and the employment cost index telling a worrisome inflation story. you'll remember that fed chair jay powell told markets he's watching the eci for signs of wage push inflation and it ha

liesman for more. >> yeah. markets forced to separate what's real and not from fed speak and not easy a slew of fed officials talking this week has them pricing in a hawkish outlook for rates. jim bullard said a 75-base raise is not the base case evans said 50 but may have to go above neutral. san francisco fed president yesterday daly said the fed would deliberate and not rule out a 75 either. december funds rate contract added 40 basis points. nearly two quarter-point hikes trading at 2.70 for december all of that leading the market to believe that maybe the fed floating a trial balloon of 75 hikes. the august yield of 1.92 suggest a 34% probability of one 75-basis hike. the fed seen hiking to 3.4%. august of next year or so. the market may be ahead of itself the hike would come after two or more 50s andself inflation reports that show what they are looking isn't working. i don't think they'll be quick to ratchet up to another one guys >> let's talk a little bit about what we expect by the end of this year. w

♪ ♪ >>> we're back right now let's get to steve liesman who has breaking news on the fed are we talking brainard headlines that are moving right now, steve >> yeah. brainard is talking right now at a conference with "the wall street journal." scott, she's making optimistic and i would say guarded comments about the inflation report this morning. several economists and brainard who is the presumptive vice chair nominee for the federal reserve saying that she welcomes the moderation in the core good sector you'll note there was the good sector came down mostly propelled by the decline in used car prices i say guarded because she says there's a lot of potential upside risk to inflation down the road including the invasion of ukraine by russia as well as the china lockdown she said these present upside risks to inflation overall, scott she gives an optimistic ability of the fed to raise interest rates suggesting there is a lot of strength in the labor market and in the economy she's optimistic about that, but these are, i don't know. guarded comments about inflation. >> she does say that th

joining us, a chief economist, cnbc's steve liesman and mike santoli. mike, interesting, the market. told us a few months ago the fed would come out in a minute from the last meeting saying most people favored a 50 basis point hike super-duper interest rate hike and looking at shrinking balance sheet $95 billion a month the next few months, get aggressive. you would expect stocks to take it poorly. could be a lot worse. >> you would exactly with respect to that, sara, if they hadn't been telling us almost exactly that for months until today. out of nowhere, out of the blue, at a moment in time if that was the news, hitting a complacent wall street, yeah. not seen the market handful well the whole question is to what degree has the fed's aggressive and methodical scene been absorbed in the market it's been a question this happened the very day of the fed tightening in the press conference we anticipated so much and the market declining perhaps in advance of. i think that's part of the issue here just what's priced in. have we been prepared for what is fu

steve liesman has the details. >> yeah. unfortunately the survey finds americans harboring some of the most down beat views on the economy since the recovery from the great financial crisis and some of these attitudes are in line with those we've only seen during recessions this is according to the latest cnbc all america economic survey the survey finds 47% believe the economy is poor. the highest is 2012. 17 % say it's excellent, good. and 26% say the economy will get better again, the lowest since 2016 that is not unfortunately the worst part of it 56% say there will be a recession in the next year you can see it's a level follow the red line across and look at the shaded area. we don't ever get to a level that high unless we're actually in a recession you have to go back to '08 to find a higher number right now the pessimism, extends to people's views of their own personal financial situation sometimes we don't see it. we do this time. 22% say they're getting ahead. 13% say they're slipping behind. 53% are staying put.

steve? >> there are some early but modest signs of stress among the consumer, but spending's held up will given the challenges and the outlook remains upbeat the chase credit card spending tracker continues to run about 0.6% above the pre-covid spending level more making ends meet by spending more in wholesale clubs. it's likely consumers looking for deals also because these outlets sell gas travel looks to be stronger with the seven-day average, running 10% below the level. the best levels of the year. one way looks to be by savings savings rates are down, but the total amount of savings in the bank is still thought to be high on the chart, still some must be were travel out there. the traffic had been running 26% below the 2019 level at the beginning of the year. now it stands less than 10% below. so we've made some progress there. the resilience underpins some optimism that spending can keep growing despite high inflation one reason, 1.7 million more americans are employed and they're get

liesman with the closer look at the fed's tough job ahead. >> kelly, an in depth look at the previous efforts to fight inflation shows the central bank has won four out of four of the past fights since 1977 it could take a long time, and sometimes the fed wins ugly. it took 37 months from that first rate hike in 1977. it took sharp rate increases for the fed and recession to get inflation under control until it peaked in 1980 it took nine months in 1999. and a bit over a year in two other episodes why does it take so long here's what we found for one, the unemployment rate, it keeps declining even after the fed starts hiking. sometimes for months it declined by almost 2 percentage points after the first hikes in 77. 1 .2 percentage points under greenspan in 2004. the effects take time to slow the labor market and economy the lags help explain why some officials want to move with urgency now, acting before inflation expectations become anchored in the public's mind. now, looking at unemployment, once unemployment starts to rise, it can do so sharply in 1977, up by 5 percentage points 1

it raises by 1/4 it's going all the way to 2.5% >> steve liesman live for us tonight on the economy thank you. >>> oklahoma is cracking down on abortions with a very strict new law. the republican governor kevin stit has signed a near total ban while sitting behind a sign that reads life is a human right. the only exception in this new law comes when an abortion will save a woman's life. the law makes it a felony for anybody in the state to perform an abortion. the punish nlt today the governor said he plans to sign every anti-abortion bill that comes to his desk. >> we want oklahoma to be the most pro life state in the country. we want to outlaw abortion in the state of oklahoma. it's attacking women's rights. cnbc's perry rusom >> reporter: it's a collision of abortion rights in oklahoma. >> we are no longer going to allow it and make nearly all borings illegal. >> this will be influenced by the u.s. supreme court >> in june the supreme court is expected to look at ruling on dobbs. they're looking at possibly eroding the legality of abortion just this month maryland state lawmakers expa

liesman is with us as you well let's check the markets. i want to show you yields and that is where the storyline lies in part because you did have a good

steve liesman, stephanie rule, dom chu, appreciate all of you. >>> coming up, the e u-turning up the pressure on china during a virtual summit today as concerns grow about the role china could play in russia's war in ukraine. we'll dig into the tight rope european officials are walking, next. i'm mark and i live in vero beach, florida. my wife and i have three children. ruthann and i like to hike. we eat healthy. we exercise. i noticed i wasn't as sharp as i used to be. my wife introduced me to prevagen and so i said "yeah, i'll try it out." i noticed that i felt sharper, i felt like i was able to respond to things quicker. and i thought, yeah, it works for me. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. ♪ with my hectic life, you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. hey mom, can i go play video games? sure! ...after homework. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions, and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. what's the wi-fi password again? here... you... go. cool, thanks. no problem. voya helps me feel like i got it all under control. b

steve liesman joins us now pretty good idea, steve? >> they are not bad at forecasting this one, joe. what they expect is an ugly inflation report the bigger trouble is little relief in sight for months down the road you have the 40-year expectation for inflation in the march cpi report it may not be the worst of what is to come inflation was already high and commodity surge with the ukraine invasion china has a shutdown over covid. it means new supply chain disruption when old ones have not cleared. labor markets remain tight to create inflation pressure. housing looks to remain high it is unknown how much of the commodity surge has made its way into the conkconsumer prices. there may be more price surges to come. here are the numbers it is well to remember 1.1% month over month is expected that used to be a year over year rate back in the days with low infl inflation. we will watch the year over year rate at 8.4% we will watch the core today and expect it to be up 6.5%. high inflation cuts into the spending power for consumers becaus

louis fed bullard said steve liesman. hey there. interesting headlines. >> reporter: for sure. this is an event i was moderating but i think, melissa, i'm struck by how kind of cool bullard is about all of this. he says we need to do 50s at almost every meeting, bring the rate up to neutral and see how things are going might do a 75 but he wouldn't rule that out. how cool he is about the impact on the economy i must have asked him eight different ways to sunday about whether all of this would cause a recession. he says quite the opposite he believes the unemployment rate would continue to decline he believes the economy will continue to grow above potential, some of the clearing from inflation will happen naturally. the most important is inflation expectation. he thinks you can have a hot economy and have the fed going up very quickly to neutral he used the 1994 example when the fed raised 300 basis points in a very short period of time in about a year and launched one of the best periods of macroeconomic performance in the history of the country >> so what is his case of the r

i want to bring in senior economics reporter steve liesman. we have been talking about the jobs numbers most of the day. the economic picture one hand is doing very well. unemployment is down. you have growth doing well. up inflation going up. it feels like a tale of two stories here. >> yeah. what you have is a you have an economy that's recovering smartly from the omicron virus and i think the way to think about it is we have had on the way up and then a dip with each wave and go up and dip. each dip with the omicron wave is shallower. not hurting the economy as much. we have now a good bounce back from the slowdown in january from what happened with omicron and so what you saw is leisure and hospitality come back big. you saw the restaurant and bar employment go up quite a bit and retail trade about 50,000. you see good cylinders in the manufacturing side why good gains for manufacturing and construction. so i think we have a good picture of an economy where jobs come back and wages are rising smartly just not as smartly as inflation is goi

liesman. we'll bring you those headlines which could move futures in a couple hours' time we begin with our talk of the tape the twitter wars musk versus the company, dorsey versus the board, and no

and that underscores i love the bullard steve liesman segment. for all the blah blah blah they raised a quarter of a point, letting the market do the work they ignored and, and thank goodness the market isn't too lazy to take that on joe, back to you >> thanks, rick. diana oleck joins us now what do you think? >> i just want to say the mortgage rates are definitely having an effect on the builders when you break out single starts in permits versus multifamily the big gains are on all the multifamily said that are not affecting by multifamily single family permits down about 2% for a single family starts. and that's because we saw the 30-year fixed start the month of march at 3.9%, end it at 4.67% now we're at 5.25% you're looking at a change of $250 more on a monthly payment for a $400,000 home, which is the median price of a newly built home the builders are seeing that i spoke to a builder yesterday he said buyers in our backlog are having trouble qualifying at these latest rates so that's what builders are looking at going forward on the singl

steve liesman has that for us. hey, steve. >> hey, good morning yeah, in-depth look by cnbc at the fed's previous efforts to fight inflation shows the central bank is 4 for 4 going back to 1977 but the game clock can run for months and years and the victory is not always pretty it took 37 months from the first rate hike in 1977 and sharp rate increases later from the fed and a recession until inflation peaked in 1908 it took nine months in 1999 and a bit over a year or two other episodes so why does it take so long? well, for one, this was interesting to find, the unemployment rate continues to decline even after the fed starts hiking, sometimes for months it declined by almost two percentage points in '77, 1.2 under greenspan in 2004. it takes time to slow the labor market and the county. the lags help explain why some officials want to move with some urgency, acting before inflation expectations become locked in among the public now, once unemployment starts to rise, can do so sharply. in '77 shot up by five perc

steve liesman has that story for us steve. . >> yeah, good luck, david. if you are puzzled about how much tightening comes from the fed's decision to to quickly reduce the balance sheet, the fed and most economists are, too. they are reluctant, the fed is, to use the tool as confidently as they do interest rate hikes hard to quantify economists have studied it, come up with general rules of thumb to think about it. forgive how difficult this chart is i put together the amount that is expected of qt, or quantitative tightening, under the fed's program and translated that into potential basis point hikes. so the 700 billion expected this year, another 25 basis point hike the 1.8 trillion next year, another 65 basis points and maybe 3 tril over time, add 100, 125. here is what the fed's plan is they told us yesterday they have agreed to it 95 billion per month, 65 billion of treasurys for a cap, 35 billion for mortgages. they reached that level in three months and may sell mortgage-backed securities after the runoff is well underway. okay there are concerns

. >> a fascinating read from the all american survey compiled by our colleague steve liesman which shows inflation is starting to bite into entertainment and travel plans with 56% of respondents say they will travel less as prices continue to rise remember hotel rates are up about 42% compared to the same time a year ago. that is not stopping citigroup from naming airbnb saying that more flexible work environments are expanding the short-term rentals and longer trips and booking holdings with a $2,600 price target and shares are up 25% from the 52-week low tomorrow we'll get the occupancy data at 10:00 a.m. to get an accurate gauge on whether bookings are starting to be impacted by inflationary concerns taking a step back the consumer discretionary etf is trading down. dragged down by netflix and disney both of which are top holdings morgan, back to you. >> thank you speaking of travel later today, do not miss the ceo of united airlines scott kirby as the company gets set to report after the ball that icongp "sts mi uonfa money" starting at 5:00 p.m. eastern. we'll be right back. this th

we have breaking comments from fed governor brainard, and steve liesman has that >> thanks very much. fed governor lael brainard will say the fed will begin to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as the may meeting. sort of echoing, maybe going further than fed chair jay powell has gone in the past. she said the committee will continue tightening policy methodically through a series of interest rate hike of paramount importance is to get inflation down on the balance sheet, she said expect to shrink the balance sheet more rapidly than the fed did in a previous balance sheet reduction period, and that includes monthly caps on the run-off, the fed will set a level on how much it will allow to run off those levels will be large they'll phase them in but gem tothet quickly all this combined will make policy, quote, more neutral, she says, this year. that sounds like she wants to get around 2%, maybe higher on the funds rate, and the fed will have an opportunity to hike rates at every meeting this year the committee is prepared to take stronger action if warranted. that is if

steve liesman is here with more. steve, the markets are slowly coming around to this the last couple weeks >> it is the grad ual wakeup the widespread support among members for what amounts to one of the most aggressive tightening cycles since 1994 here are the main points balance sheet runoff we got the details up to $95 billion per month. we will get to details in a second 50 basis point hikes could be appropriate. they want to move to neutral ex-e exped expeditiously. $95 billion of capped runoff per month. that is maybe $10 billion to $15 billion more than the street expectation. that breaks down to $65 billion this treasury and $35 billion of mortgage runoff. they will have trouble reaching the mortgage number. they want to reach these levels in three months. they might sell mortgages after the runoff is under way. they want to get to a treasury only balance sheet the plan wants to be adopted at the may meeting. that looks certain given the support expressed in the minutes. morgan stanley writing the tone of the

liesman joins us now hey, steve. >> good morning, joe in this clip by cnbc of the fed's previous efforts to fight inflation, the central bank always wins, but it can take a long time. sometimes the fed wins ugly. in four breakouts of inflation, it took anywhere from 37 months in 1977 to nine months in 1999 until inflation finally peaked sometimes it only peaked when the economy entered recession. why does it take so long interesting fact, i didn't realize this one, the unemployment rate of each inflation breakdown kept declining even after the feds started hiking it climbed by almost 2% when the feds started hiking in 1977 and even more under greenspan in 2004 that's before starting to rise and easing the pressure on the economy that raises inflation. sometimes it keeps declining for several months before it turns around, adding urgency to those who want to hike inflation more quickly. when they turn around, that's when the fed starts to win sometimes they start to win ugly it can do so sharply as in 1977, '78, '79 sometimes only modestly. every cycle is different, and this time the fed

steve liesman takes a look at the high frequency data. they may not have cut back yet, but they're all like they're ready and starting to prepare if prices stay this high. >> you nailed it, joe. >> then there could be a self-inducing recession we could be going into, steve >> you nailed it, joe, because i'm just not seeing it necessarily in the data, but of course i appreciate what sharon came up with in terms of people's sentiments about spending a month after the surging gasoline prices there was some early but only modest signs of stress among consumers spending held up relatively well, and the outlook among some economists remains pretty upbeat despite the challenges 0.6% above the pre-covid spending level, but that margin has come down in recent weeks. the sameitata shows consumer making spending more at wholesale clubs and discount stores some 34% above the trend and rising it's likely these consumers are at these places looking for deals and these places sell gasoline or cheaper gasoline and amid all the stress travel is stronger.