but we will ask francine -- ask christine lagarde about the blog post. imagine the nightmares, you are the president of ecb and you have like six people giving interviews and the hawks are pushing to tackle inflation and the other ones have less of a voice. we will see what she says on that and the way forward. but i am delighted to talk about what chief executive think about inflation and central banks. richard, thank you as always. i love our davos catch up. this year, chief executives are worried after two and a half years of craziness they have had. >> i think the big news for the trust monitor is along with running a good business, societal issues like diversity and inclusion, sustainability, now they have geopolitics. geopolitics is rated just as highly by the public in terms of corporate responsibilities, and in fact, if you left ukraine, you got a 30-plus point -- excuse me, left russia. if you stayed, you got a 38 point drop in trust. the litmus test for business now includes are you working with repressive regimes? where you stand on human righ

basically, christine lagarde is speaking with the consensus. the consensus is looking for a 25-basis-point rate hike in july and another one in september. that would get their negative right back to zero. at the june night meeting, that is where the big debate is going to occur. they are expected to officially end on purchases and give us the groundwork. there is a smaller consensus among the hawks that the ecb may have to consider rate hikes by 50 basis points. christine lagarde said in the last 50 days in dollars that she thinks inflation is more of a supply problem, not so much a demand problem. supply shocks, all of that. the dutch central bank governors says 25 basis points unless inflation gets out of control. the head of the austrian central bank says he thinks it is appropriate to do 50 basis points and anything less than that would be perceived as soft. but that is still the minority view. you start the hike, do 25 basis points, 25 basis points, see where you are then, and i think you are wise to point out they will see where all this

i remember the day christine lagarde lectured me on do not make jokes about french bread. i was at a french government gathering and they flew in a book -- a bunch of fancy bread people from paris and i made some kind of joke and she looked at me. lisa: what did you say to get that morning? it was not unwarranted. tom: christine lagarde holding court in davos. we welcome all of you on radio and television. to give you one moment 15 years ago, i remember looking down the long corridor work of the congress center at the rich and the fancy with the strange things in their hands. they were cell phones. it was before twitter, it was before this, and it was before snap. snap is having a bad day. lisa: shares down almost 30%. the reason i find this so interesting is it is not just one company, there is a larger story. the ceo came out and said the macro economic backdrop is deteriorating much faster than previously expected, and this echoes what we are hearing from other executives. how much does this be to a slow down that has not been picked up? matthew bloxham joining us now.

said, rings can get interesting -- christine lagarde said, things can get interesting. in theory, this should be good for banks, but we will wait and see what happened banks trading higher. the euro also rallying, at $1. 06, giving back some of that dollar strength. banks at 1%, we will talk about christine lagarde in more detail in a moment. some great reporting. the base being pushed higher -- the base of these yields being pushed higher. testing lagarde suggesting the path of rate hikes she would like to see. alix: here in the u.s., it is a similar story. the kbw bank up, nasdaq, no idea if it is negative or positive, but i want to highlight raw scores. after reported earnings last week, it got hit hard now it is up by 8%. we are seeing a bounce of stocks of gun beaten up the most versus some shift. guy: let us talk about what is happening. i hear what you are saying. tech stocks being beaten up, but comments are suggesting are the lows in? maybe not. there is chatter about how far we could ultimately go, but let us talk about what is happening with the economy. you

a couple of lines come out from christine lagarde. she reiterated this back at out of negative rates by the end of the third quarter saying that the european central bank is not behind the curve and the timing is perfect. we'll see whether investors agree on that. we'll check euro-dollar shortly. checking the markets now. of course investors also digesting the earnings downgrade from snap. the forecast reduced on concerns about the macro economics and inmedication that and high yields and a drop in advertising revenues and that is going through social media space. china remains front and center. stimulus around $20 billion in tax cuts. downgrading their views. the government is targeting 5.5%. bloomberg exhibition said it could fall as low as 2%. the cac lower by 75 points the spanish ieb exlower. italy lower by 1%. it is risk off today after the moves that we saw yesterday. positive up until that session and earnings downgrade from snap. let's see how things are playing out. the focus on what's happening within tech. looking at furth

shery: ecb president christine lagarde speaking exclusively with francine lacqua in davos. in just 24 hours, we will speak to the rbnz governor. make sure to catch that conversation on thursday at 9:30 a.m. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: time for morning calls. australian equities are becoming a preferred destination for wall street strategists as growth slows around the world. strategists from the likes of goldman sachs and morgan stanley and citigroup have upgraded australian or touted them among top picks. the australian benchmark has outperformed by 10% this year. we'll be watching the market opens in one hour's time. investors looking from shelter-- for shelter. they are buying into cash cows, etf assets. they have ballooned to $5.6 billion on inflows every week so far this year. the top holdings include multiple energy mains, haidi. haidi: let's get a quick check. of glencore has admitted to a decade of market manipulation. the u.s. regulators say the offenses took place from 2007 through to 2018. glencore agreed to plead guilty to charges including burglary, corruptio

christine lagarde was in dabo's today. -- davos today. she coal -- she told francine lacqua the ecb is not in panic mode. this is the conversation they had at the world economic forum. christine: we are at a turning point. we have all the components in place for that. we are turning our back to negative interest rates. we are moving very lightly into positive territory at the end of the third quarter. then, of course, we will calibrate, we will establish exactly by how much we want to do that. francine: when you talk about no longer negative rates, does the market know this could mean positive rates? christine: when you are out of negative, you can be zero, you can be slightly above zero. this is something we will determine on the basis of our projections, on the basis of our forward guidance. i think there are good reasons to believe all three conditions will be satisfied in june and further on during the summer. francine: where are we in the third quarter? could we be above zero? christine: when i'm saying, i stick to. we will be out of

jonathan: christine lagarde looking forward to june 9, the next ecb meeting. we are, she is not. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. futures positive. on the nasdaq up 1.13. yield slow a third straight session. we had a little look at 3.20 earlier in the week. hsbc publishing seconds ago. steve major and the team making a move on the bond yield forecast. we just raised forecasts -- 10 year yields raised 50 basis points. they raised their bund yield forecast to 1%. just out from hsbc and the team. tom: that is important because it shows the difference transatlantic and the challenge christine lagarde has. the 1% statistic gets made. on the tenure german we are there. jonathan: i'm not suggesting everyone is thinking this, but some people will be looking at where gilts printed earlier this week, the move we have had since , and the fact along time bond bull like hsbc has push their forecast up and wondered programs like this and say may 3 .20 was it. lisa: i think the fact that a major bond bull is capitulating and saying we will not get back to 1% which were some of the id

i think the sound of kicking and screaming coming from christine lagarde is visible to me. she had to say this, i think she wants to say this. she still wants to buy herself some wiggle room, but in essence if she does not say something like this she is going to lose the rest of her governing council. i think that is the issue here. comments have been reluctant to show some leg, show to speak. i don't think she is writing in july as an absolute certainty. let's face it, that is the probability. alix: it is great to see you. let's pretend we see that hike in july. 1.0548. is it parity? i don't understand what is going to provide a meaningful goose upward in the euro. marcus: it has nothing to do with those currencies, it is about the euro-dollar. i think the point is, if they do not hike in july, then i think parity is almost a racing certainty. this summer at some point and possibly earlier than that. the ecb needs to avoid a currency crisis at all costs. a credibility crisis. a fundamental rationale on whether the european project is struggling or not. guy: the germans are

christine lagarde saying we're not going to see negative rates in regards to the e.c.b. this is fueling some of the euro strength, dollar weakness we're seeing, at a time when the market is laser focused on whether or not e.c.b. and the other central bankers are behind the curve. as well as what this are they going to do between closing the spread at a time when of course we know the famous comments from christine simply saying, she's not here to close the spread. it's interesting that we're witnessing all of this at once. jon: and look at the price realities. they talked about the invasion of ukraine and obviously in europe they continue to watch what's happening. in oil prices here in north america, we go beyond what's happening in oil and say the inflationary impacts but obviously for christine lagarde, being able to zero in on the price pressures beyond oil is something they're going to want to keep watching and the underlying demand as well and the concerns on that front as a reason to perhaps take more time on rate hikes. but make no mistake, right, there's clearly

tom: christine lagarde about the international monetary fund. they said there was a feverish to get in the room. to worry about growth front and center. lisa: that's what everybody wants to do. what are they going to say other than it's not inevitable that we are going to get a recession. there is still a lot of strength. tom: we are learning so much here. lisa: we take a look at a world that is very much in turmoil. tom: rebecca patterson talking about the markets. we continue from jason furman. someone that has been with us through the many years of davos. the title is practice of economic development professor at harvard kennedy school but that barely describes his contribution to economics on original sin. i historic day here when venezuela was blowing up. president biden is sending out solicitations to saudi arabia and year venezuela. should he be doing that? >> for saudi arabia definitely it can be a game changer. the world is now concerned about energy security and energy affordability. the world wants to reduce russian oil production. it

rishaad: european central bank president christine lagarde speaking exclusively to us. getting breaking news from the jrc, this is the japan investment corporation. this has signed a confidential agreement with toshiba for access to detailed finances and it seeks to explore an offer for the company. this is just coming throughout the moment. that is one we looking at. a lot more on the way, this is bloomberg. ♪ juliette: you are watching bloomberg markets: asia, a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. more than a decade of bribery and market manipulation. they will pay one half billion dollars to settle probes across the u.s. u.k. and brazil. regulators say the offenses took place through 2018. production woes and china are weighing on tesla's share price. in its most recent attempt to ramp up production in shanghai, the ev maker is isolating thousand of workers in disused factories to ensure they are covid free. staff will be used to create a second shift at tesla's factory. elon musk's personal wealth has fallen below the $200 billion mark. the world's

shery: that was christine lagarde of the ecp. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: a quick check of the headlines. bank of america is boosting the pay for tens of thousands of u.s. employee and adding reimbursement for portions of electric vehicle purchases. base salaries will climb as much as 7% for those who have been with them since 2021 or earlier. and shelving plans for an ipo this year. board members of the highflying indian stock are talking through changes and timing. the earliest possibility for an ipo has been pushed back 2023. and they -- we've been watching the impact of the yen on airlines and japan corporate and ana has been impacted. they say border controls will lead to a rise in international travel and the yen will come into play with weakness here the government of japan says border controls are on a trial basis this weekend they will start letting in small amounts of visitors. they say the weaker currency should help lift air bound to travel as they returned to profit for the first time in three years. xfinity mobile

christine lagarde has already said that after the start of july, rate hikes will follow that month. there is a debate to be had about how big that rate increase will have to be. voices are getting louder about 50 basis points. guy: 50 basis points, how big a shift with that be? would that be 50 basis points and then expecting the market to extrapolate more? what would be the message? jana: it is certainly not the mainstream scenario. the plane has been cautious lately, but if you look closely at what president lagarde has said, she has said left off in july, at the end of negative rates by the end of the third quarter, whether that is zero 4 --, both is possible and will depend on data. guy: how big a concern would fragmentation risk be? you get a big reaction in dtp. jana: that has been a concern for the past month -- fragmentation has gone up. policymakers do not seem extremely concerned about the spreads. they have widened, but not to the extent we have seen in previous episodes of crisis. the vice president said last week that spreads are nowhere near levels that trigger similar

manus: when it comes to what -- christine lagarde says we are not in panic mode. then you have the ecb delaying coming out saying the benchmark pace. 25 basis points, july and september -- >> our baseline is 25 basis points and we expect three rate hikes this here and next year we expect another four hikes again of 25 basis points. the message from the governing council so far has been pretty clear. consensus is currently at 25 basis point hikes. i think we need to put it into context -- it is the first hike from the ecb in a long time and as president lagarde mentioned a number of times, gradualism and flexibility are the key issues. manus: last week we spent a little time on the shows talking about apple giving across-the-board pay raises up from 2018. when you look at the risk to wage price inflation in europe, specifically europe, we have a narrative of wage hikes across united states. what do you say about the wage construct in europe? is that set to change direction? is that a more latent risk we need to reassess in the inflation narrative in europe? anna: f

christine lagarde also saying that could follow weeks after the end of next quarter. this would be the first rate increase in more than a decade for the ecb. shery: let's get more analysis on all things global monetary policy, especially the very hot april u.s. inflation numbers, with kathleen hays and andreea papuc. these inflation numbers seem to be very persistent. the breadth of the price pressures. tell us about the components of the cpi numbers this time around and what this means for the federal reserve. kathleen: peaking is the word i have been trying to underscore lately. it is kind of meaningless right now. persistent is the word the fed is facing and that is the word that will be very important for policy. when you look at the headline number, it was supposed to go down to 8.0. even that would have been a 40 year high. instead and only one down to 8.3 from 8.5 year-over-year. the core cpi was supposed to go down to 6.0. it only one down to 6.2 from 6. 6. they are staying at a high level and that is the problem. and another problem here is the momentum of in

we have christine lagarde coming out with comments. she has arced some of our rivals. david: she said rate hide -- yvonne: she said rate hikes or coming in july. i gave a lift to the euro-dollar. the u.s. president wrapping up his five day trip with the quad summit underway in tokyo. the strategic grouping of the u.s., india, japan and australia discussing the challenges posed by a more assertive china as well as north korea and russia's war in ukraine. rishaad: here is stephen engle. what are they trying to achieve here? we have had responses from china but what is the basic message they are trying to send? >> quad is a strategic gathering of these four main parties and you could probably add south korea because biden's trip began in south korea and the threats posed by north korea. the quad is japan, the united states, india and australia. in addition to that, the indo pacific economic framework which biden announced yesterday which is 13 nations including the united states. vietnam, thailand, malaysia, singapore, or not, india, japan, south korea, new zealand to it

christine lagarde's roadmap hinted strongly there would be two 25 basis point rate hikes. that means that by the end of september we would be back to -- we would be exiting negative interest rate policy. however, there are few policymakers who have been pushing for bigger rate hikes. that could give them ammunition. yousef: a lot of numbers to get through. thank you for giving us a preview of that. let's stay with the previous because powell has got a dilemma. at least, that is what mohamed el-erian says. he says that they could tighten too much or not tighten enough. we will talk martin applications next. plus, don't miss our interview with ite ceo, china's netflix streamer moving profitability over market share. that is at 6:20 london time. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think the fed is going to have to decide between two policy mistakes. one that brakes too hard in with a recession or tap the brakes in a stop and go pattern and risk having inflation well into 2023. yousef: that is bloomberg opinion columnist mohamed el-erian. this is the fed is set to start shrinking its

christine lagarde doubles down on raising interest rates, but not too fast. tenure yields a little bit lower, but quiescent. crude bouncing around, but really it is the retracement in some of the social media stocks. i know you are wondering what the significance is of that, but i think that is at the forefront of today. tom: it was a very carefully phrased conversation with pressures to the ecb meeting. it is always pressure when we go to romaine bostick in new york, looking at individual securities. romaine: securities tied to the macroeconomic conditions. yesterday the rally was all about that commentary we got out of jp morgan and jamie dimon, that birdseye view that maybe while things aren't completely all caps set, they weren't necessarily cause for complete concern that we would be heading towards a recession or even economic doldrums. that has now a flipped on its -- that has now all flipped on its head. snap shares down after it revised it's gotten slower. this is a company that just reported earnings four weeks ago, and there's a big question as to

christine lagarde says the currency bloc has reached a turning point in monetary policy. in an exclusive interview with bloomberg in dollars, lagarde said the ecb is not in panic mode, but said it will move at negative interest rates by the end of the year. europe's two largest economies kept growing in may. germany and france benefited from a sustained rebound and services that offset losses from ross's invasion and you could -- from russia's invasion in ukraine. the biden administration's trade representative says the u.s. must be strategic when it comes to deciding whether to lift tariffs on chinese goods. it has to be done in terms of how to effectively realign the u.s. and china trade economic relationship. president biden said he would consider removing trump era tariffs. more americans are quitting their jobs than ever, and few are sticking around a new positions. amongst workers who took a new job and 22 anyone, the share who had been in their previous position for less than 12 months rose by 6.5%, compared with a year earlier. that is according to linkedin. globa

ecb christine lagarde saying crypto is worthless although she wants to regulate it. okay. jim bianco coming on. deglobalization. is this beginning of the end for big business? we'll be right back. ♪ everyone remembers the moment they heard, “you have cancer.” how their world stopped... ...and when they found a way to face it. for some,... ...this is where their keytruda story begins. keytruda—a breakthrough immunotherapy that may treat certain cancers. one of those cancers is advanced melanoma, which is a kind of skin cancer where keytruda may be used when your melanoma has spread or cannot be removed by surgery. keytruda helps your immune system fight cancer... ...but can also cause your immune system to attack healthy parts of your body. this can happen during or after treatment and may be severe and lead to death. see your doctor right away if you have cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, diarrhea, severe stomach pain or tenderness, severe nausea or vomiting, headache, light sensitivity, eye problems, irregular heartbeat, extreme tiredness, constipation, dizz

it seems like christine lagarde has reluctantly been pushed into a position where she has agreed to have some tightening of policy. she seems to have accepted that rates need to go up maybe buy a total of 50 basis points, two rate hikes, then that would get them slightly above the zero line. from that point, the european economy obviously is very subject to what happens in ukraine and to energy supply constraints and other factors are probably more severe there than they are in the u.s., for example. so it could be that she agrees to two rate hikes and then no more. we need to take a policy with the effect is because some weaker european countries cannot live with a much tighter monetary policy. so whatever benefit the euro gains from higher rates may be quite temporary. so i don't think the rally will be that strong. david: mark cranfield live for us out of singapore. let's take you now to sydney. paul allen hats an up -- has an update on the first word news. paul: eu nations failed to agree on an -- on a revised package of sanctions over moscow's invasion of ukraine. hungary is refusin

christine lagarde made a mistake early in her tenure when she said we are not in the business of spread management. do you think the ecb is still in the business of spread management? how do you think it should do that? >> you have several ways. you can sit management of spread variation. you could also say taking care of the fact that the monetary policy decisions which are taken in the ecb governing council are correctly channeled. christina had to say -- we have an immense at stake in being sure that there correctly transmitting the year -- monetary policy where deciding. what is important is to be sure that the area remains in the correct situation in terms of the interest rates that any country were practiced. that being said, the central bank is not a magician. the spreads depend on the credibility of the policies pursued by the various governments and this is of course of the essence also that the reason why when we intervened to support this correct channeling of monetary policy decisions, at the same time the government's concerns were cannibalizing their own policies in the ex

european central bank president christine lagarde is joining a growing crowd of policymakers. a rate hike may happen weeks after bond buying happens. the u.k. and eu are at it again. liz trust says the european union's latest trading arrangements will not work. she signaled the u.k. would take unilateral steps if a union agreement cannot be negotiated. prices are surging in some corners of the diamond market. about 20%. the u.s. imposed sanctions on one of the world's largest diamond miners. meanwhile, south africa's mining giant is not able to make up that difference. the diamonds are the type that would end up around a ring. i ritika gupta. amthis is bloomberg. ♪ >> i don't look out at the next month or two in terms of the eye of the storm. i look at fundamentally where the names the next 12, 18 months, and that is the key right now in terms of this handholding time for investors. jonathan: it has been a tough moment. that is for sure. we managing director of wedbush securities. we are 32 minutes away from cpi in america. the nasdaq 100 up by 1.42%. yields heading south. t

tom: christine lagarde talking yesterday. more from that interview throughout the day. a couple more lines crossing the terminal from a couple of governor members, from finland and italy. panetta talking about the data, saying the ecb needs to avoid the risk of a normalization tantrum, but saying it is right to gradually normalize rates, the outlook justifies gradually exiting negative rates. the president of the ecb telling francine lacqua yesterday she expects to get out of negative territory by the end of the third quarter. the hawks within the ecb governing council are concerned the door will remain open for more aggressive hikes. from rehn, saying the upside risks for inflation have clearly increased, the ecb should raise rates by a quarter-point in july. that dovetails with what we heard from madame lagarde. panetta saying he does not see an ugly inflation scenario materializing, he has pointed out the data is starting to soften in terms of growth prospects for the euro zone. rehn saying medium-term inflation expectations are near the 2% level. many will take issu

christine lagarde saying in the last couple of seconds at the rate hike plan at the ecb wants a faster option. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> strong economy, big storm clouds. i'm calling them storm clouds because they are storm clouds prayed they may dissipate. it was a hurricane, i would tell you that. they may not dissipate. obviously we want to turn out well. guy: i always love his glasses when he wears a like that. jp morgan ceo speaking yesterday saying the u.s. economy remains strong. the firm also announcing today it's raising its estimates for net interest income. probably why u.s. banks are as they are today. a lot of pushback of the last few days as a result of the plan to spend more money basically. he's keeping that cost estimate stable saying we will make more money over here. hopefully they balance each other out. alix: what's also interesting is when he talked about credit. he said he's never seen credit look this good and they haven't set aside that much for credit and haven't seen that much for credit losses. also concern spreads will blowout. guy: when you listen to what

christine lagarde rejected the idea that the euro area is heading for a recession. lagarde spoke to bloomberg in an exclusive interview at davos. >> we have the various alternatives there on the basis of hypotheticals such as oil, interruption of gas supplies. that clearly would have a significant impact on the economy. for the moment we are not seeing a recession in the euro area. ritika: lagarde spoke a day after laying out her next steps. they are likely to exit negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter. like sing of all he has lost his appeal against a nine year prison sentence. he will be transferred to a prism that supporters say is aimed at isolating vladimir putin's top critic. navalny was convicted in march of a fraud and contempt of court. american households are about to get some unwelcome mail. some of the highest power bills they have seen. residential electricity rates are poised to climb higher this summer. it is a combination of higher -- tighter supplies of gas and coal, and a forecast for extreme heat. monthly bills will be more than

tom: next thursday for christine lagarde and the jobs report this week might be small. june 1, the first month data we saw, what are you looking for? jonathan: i am looking ahead to payrolls because that's what a lot of people are looking for. the jobs data it will be a focus but that's really dated. if you are looking for job openings to confirm a move by the fed, that it will commit. tom: the housing dated today is dated as well. it is a joy in it was my book of the summer a few years ago. way out front on china looking out to 2003 and now it is vintage and the author joins us this morning. this is what he does best. this is 10 chapters and nine conflicts and nine chapters on people in the navy and lessons learned of their successes and their failures. i want to fold this into where we are now. i had a conversation davos on the black sea. william halsey without a pearl harbor came back and supported nimitz and the navy under a lot of heat and he went out to sea aggressively. how are we aggressive in a black sea contained by the bosporus strait? >> the black sea is a r

luke hanging on by his fingernails, hanging on by his fingernails and going what is christine lagarde going to do? dani: that's true. maybe more confident on the u.s., less on europe. youth, thanks so much for joining us. let's get over to the first word news. juliette saly standing by in singapore. juliette: shanghai starting to unravel. the punishing lockdown confined millions of people to their homes for more than six weeks after the financial hub reported no new covert infections in the broader community for a third consecutive day. the city reported 823 infections for monday that was down more than 100 on sundays total. turkey's president said he will not allow sweden and finland to join nato because of their stances on kurdish militants. they poured cold water on expectations that opposition could be easily resolved. he accuses nato allies of ignoring his concerns about kurdish militants operating inside turkey and neighboring countries. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

lagarde told her monetary policy in europe is at a turning point. >> i believe the gradualism is actually the way to go as long as inflation expectations are well and good. if we were in a situation where we anticipate d anchoring or if we had a surge in demand, that is a different story. manus: let's get to the world economic forum, francine is standing by. great interview. it appears she has sparked debate, healthy debate by whether we should have a jumbo hike for not panic. also during that conversation, she drew the differentiation between the united states inflation and european inflation. >> yes, she did and there is still a hoe but the back of her mind for a lot of people on the governing council that this inflation is due to pent up demand from covid. this is real inflation. the idea is that it is gradual. 25 basis points in july was very well telegraphed. it gives her more optionality. if inflation goes down, there is no policy mistake done by the ecb. i think she was thinking and hoping together with others that this gradual increase in interest rates, was that with blog post mo

tom: if i am christine lagarde this afternoon, i will focus not on euro-yen but on dollar-yen. 118 to 130. that is a weak yen. maybe that is a litmus paper to follow. jonathan: coming up, a conversation you don't want to miss. paul romer, the nyu professor and nobel laureate. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: your day ahead looks a little something like this. 2:00 eastern time, a federal reserve rate decision. shortly after, you'll hear from the president of the united states. then you'll hear from the chairman at 2:30. your 10-year, 2.96. crude higher at 106.29. tom: we have the laureate from new york university. paul romer joins us. from day one, the gentleman from colorado has done academics at rochester and beyond where he has always considered technology. thank you for joining. i want to go back to the heart of it. and dodging us technological change. do we understand what technology is doing to the american labor economy, two people in our many deciles? paul: there's a good way to see if some of the problems we are experiencing in the u.s. are technology-based. look at other coun

lagarde last week. then you have clouse on the number of others quite hawkish. what is the tolerable level that you suggest they may have to tolerate to avoid a credit crunch, the worst case of all, in your eyes? raffaella: i mean, i think if the trajectory of inflation is one that it comes down next year, but instead of having double-digit inflation this year, we have single-digit inflation fixed or below, that is tolerable. the maximum amount of interest rate i think the ecb is ready to do within a 12 month horizon is maximum 200 basis points. i don't think it can go any higher than that. with inflation running this high , you can see real rates are heavily negative anyway. manus: what does this do -- what is your greatest fear or economic fear? a spread blowout? italy, greece, etc.? the traditional mediterranean spreads that vexxed us so in the european debt crisis. i know they've been well anchored by qe, but is there a risk around the spread that is perhaps under issued? raffaella: no, to be honest

tom: christine lagarde scheduled to speak as well. the vix, 26.73, a better market. stay with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪ a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the strength of the u.s. consumer. >> the consumer has been the heart of this economy. >> consumers are spending. they sti

don't miss our interview with selena georgieva, the imf director, christine lagarde, the e.u. commissioner for economy, and the nasdaq president and ceo, just some of the names that will be joining us. just some of the names here on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: a look at trading in bitcoin. the largest crypto currency has hundred back in the green -- has found its way back to the green. but many analysts are warning investors to embrace for lower lows if that selloff in stocks continues. bloomberg's su keenan joins us. is this sort of the calm before another storm? su: it could be. many times when stocks fall out, crypto goes along with it and in an accelerated manner. technical analysts are warning of something that could send prices lower. while you are seeing a lot of green on the screen now, bitcoin above the key 30,000 level after the rough ride over the weekend, one analyst notes that a popular crypto analyst has told his more than 200,000 followers that the bottom may still be months away, six-eight months away, based on other bear markets for bitcoin. mike n

we will talk about where the ecb goes from here because we heard from christine lagarde and then we heard from the hawks and the doves and plenty of opinions on where the ecb goes next. we get inflation data from the ecb or eurozone i should say next week. alix: part of what helps european equities is u.s. equities, trading a little off the highs of the session but despite finding a little softer, and we go to of ago doolittle. ewa coco the nasdaq up -- abigail: the nasdaq is up. tesla is higher at five point 6%. that could have something to do with the fact some twitter shareholders suing the ceo of tesla elon musk for supposedly, allegedly manipulating the twitter stock price. the idea is maybe that bid for twitter won't go through. more energy for tesla, tesla up. not slowing, bitcoin down below the $29,000 curve. not at the recent low, still hanging in there. kiwi, new zealand dollar versus the u.s. dollar, up .8%. not so long ago it was up or than 1%. strong retail sales in australia. going to new zealand as well. overall, a risk on day. anna: thank you. that risk on session we're cl

how is bailey's time continuant different from powell and christine lagarde? andrew: it is really nice to be here with you. i think you put it rightly, these are three central banks with slightly different challenges. i think with the u.s. you have a clearly strong economy, and i think that is more of a classic challenge of central bank policy that is trying to slow a strong economy where employment is very strong and where a lot of that inflation is coming through the core parts of the inflationary channel. for the ecb it is different. the inflation is a lot less and the core elements of cpi. the inflation is a lot more being driven by energy and food prices, and the risks to the economy are this very binary geopolitical risk to the energy markets, more so than probably traditional slowing of fiscal policy or other factors. i think when it comes to the ecb, there is a low bit more flexibility. you also have a negative rates scenario, unlike the bank of england and the fed, getting out of negative rates is something we think to be broader buy-in to . i think t

lisa: christine lagarde came out in a note and basically was saying that she sees getting to eroding the negative yielding policies by the end of september and actually really taking a more hawkish tone which is giving a bit of a lift. tom: 10 year yield, 2.3% as well. brent crude resilient. that gets my attention in global price. the food crisis is front and center. lisa: the food crisis as well as how we are dealing with climate change issues at a time where gas and oil has new prominence and people seem to be putting aside the eft. we are going to be speaking with john kerry. the u.s. special climate ongoing and former u.s. secretary of state also the senator from massachusetts. joseph stiglitz will be talking about globalized or deglobalize. columbia university professor and nobel laureate will be joining us in this hour. david rubenstein, carlyle group co-chair and co-founder and host of peer-to-peer conversations. right now the conversation really some up can we get a reprieve from the seventh straight week of decline? is what we are seeing this morning a head fake or the start

on germany and the euro, the challenge for christine lagarde given what i'm going to call the german reticence, how difficult a moment is this for the politician guard? -- politician lagarde? kenneth: i think the toughest spot is that they have connected politically raising interest rates, which they need to do, and scaling back quantity to be using, which is a different animal in europe. it is really a subsidy from north to south. if they start scaling back on a date of easing given all of the fragility's, we could see spikes in interest rates in portugal and spain. so they need to raise interest rates, but they have really been painted into a corner by becoming the de facto euro treasury, so it is a difficult political position. i think that is the most difficult part, not so much navigating deficits. jonathan: wonderful depressive -- to catch up with you. when i anchor with you every day, i often learn to translate what you actually mean. tom: you know, when you are talking to a force like rogoff, that is what happens. what he said about the dollar possibly stronger and more domin

a huge movable fee for christine lagarde. jonathan: every move lower, we have seen pair. tom: right now we are with alix webb, a quicktake reporter. excited. -- encyclopedic with this technology. to me, alex webb is more on tesla. in my reading of tesla, you mentioned the 700 number on a margin call on tesla. maybe it's 500, maybe 700, the answer with the 41% drawdown is tesla is very. is the announcement about twitter or mr. musk and tesla? alix: it could be any number of things. we have seen tesla shares close about 727 yesterday. if 700 is the margin core point, they are knocking on the door that. you could also say maybe it is testing where the natural twitter share price should be for this bid. this calls down 18%, in the 30's now, and the final possibility is that yuan is being sarcastic. -- fillon is being sarcastic. he is saying i will put this on hold because of the basis point. does not come across in tweets. jonathan: they are asking you to work out what someone is thinking. that is impossible below this focus on the deal. do we know whether the financing is li

maybe the one look forward to the most with christine lagarde. will you give us a brief are the hour? lisa: sure. tom: are you going to dash the ethro? lisa: we will be looking a personal conception, personal spending, and personal income at 8:30. at 10:00 a.m., we get university of michigan the sentiment which will probably come in around the same level as it was before, the weakest level since 2011 and we have a slew of incredible guests. christian may like coming up with jp morgan as we try to discern the dynamics of an oil market, a crude market in oil. tom: i told mohamed el-erian this may be a more important interview then the doctor and hang up the phone -- hung up the phone. she never hangs up the phone. this is not consumer finance, it is not lightweight. when you have liz young spirit to your investment strategy from her work at bny mellon, her charter financial analyst work as well, thrilled to have her today but with a much more in the trenches view. liz young, forget about the spread market, forget about hyper pro fixed income analys

some names have been thrown around, christine lagarde, for example, but i think it's still too early to call. those are the main concerns he has right now but it will send a very crucial message, kim, as we go into these legislative elections. >> speaking of those, so we have a coalition from the left that's trying to oppose him there. he's formed his own centrist coalition, but notoriously in france these coalitions are very volatile. do you think that they will hold, you know, in time for the parliamentary elections and beyond? >> yeah. we see everybody is trying to rebrand themselves. they see how divided the country is. they know so many people did not bother to vote in either the first round or the run-off stages. they're all eager to appeal to those voter. it introduces a lot of volatility, a lot of uncertainty. certainly emmanuel macron is trying to appeal to center left and center right voters. the biggest move has been on the left and ironically enough those parties failed to come together in the first round and i think it cost them potentially a place in the run-off stages.

christine lagarde has not ruled that out. we will get a few more ecb speakers in the coming days before the blackout period starts on thursday. 25 basis points in july and september and december at the neutral rate being 1.5%. our economists say if you move any faster than that you will jeopardize financial stability. guy: can i get your take on a bank of america note that has just been published with regards to the pound? pretty apocalyptic. this is the quote. "we sent something is changing in the u.k.. with the bank of england increasingly hard to decipher and less transparent, failure to acknowledge brexit had been a significant headwind to the supply side and a sense the boe is losing control over its mandate." we are focusing on annexes dental prices. we are not talking about an end of days, but we are concerned things will deteriorate. that is the line from bank of america on the bank of england. they are talking about the pound becoming a quasi-em currency. what you make of that? lothar: it -- lizzy: it is fair to say

i think a in today's christine lagarde, i really, really like she's an economist. she's worked for the imf. she's in charge of the ecb, the european street bank. she said a bitcoin and cryptocurrencies or worse 0. i think hear that before it happens or if it happens and the crowd and fixes the economy stinks. it's worthy of note. we're starting to see more companies lay off people or denounce potential layoffs. so that's part of the economic cycle. and we're in the inflation is hurting earnings earnings is hurting profits. expectations going forward. so now we're starting to say, let's cut down on labor that's help inflation, too, because if you know more people are more likely to take less than more. so it's just a weird bad year, except unless conan o'brien. he's got 150 million dollars for some of his out there. and i i think that's interesting. they're selling it to sirius xm satellite, which i don't really quite get as far as a podcast play. but it's out there one of universe. >> but while you get that, what like is it serious like? is that also? i think i thi

kathleen: i don't think the cbn christine lagarde ever thought her inflation rate was going to get this high, nor did the fed inc. there's would get to 8.5. when biden sits with jay powell and says, i know it is your job to do this, does it send a message to the central bank? a markets, that is the case, but it doesn't seem it changes much for jay powell, what do you see? enda: i didn't pick up much of a policy signal from that meeting, kathleen. it speaks to the gravity of the situation when you have the white house calling in the head of the fed. president biden did go out of his way to say the fed is independent, but the u.s. has a serious inflation problem and policymakers need to get on top of it. and there are u.s. elections coming up later in the year. in terms of the fed, they have already turned hawkish to moves, 50 basis points, they are expected to do that again in june and july. not clear what different powell is going to be doing, but other central banks will see that you have the white house calling the head of the fed, it doesn't show the gravity of the situation and it i

christine lagarde says the rate hike may happen weeks after bond buying ends early next quarter. the sri lankan president has promised a new prime minister and cabinet will be named this week to end political instability. he is also pledging constitutional changes to give more power in the parliament, a demand of protesters. meantime, that central bank chief has threatened to resign if stability isn't resort -- isn't restored. protests have seen nine people killed and 200 injured. china has condemned world health organization criticism of its zero covid approach. it has left the nation isolated from the rest of the world. a spokesman says the w.h.o. director general should get a better understanding of the facts and refrain from making irresponsible remarks. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: still ahead, a bank set to report earnings. the world's biggest tech fund lost $18 billion in its public portfolio alone in the last qua

lagarde, she'll be here tomorrow, that i are increasingly turning towards raising interest rates this is a single mandate central bank unlike the fed, which deals with jobs as well as inflation so their inflation is much higher than their target they have to raise rates at a time where the economy is slowing. they're much more expose to russia she has dealt in a difficult pan. the euro, which is actually strengthening today. we are on parody watch, euro to dollar it was getting to sac weak fr franco is cheaper on the plus side. >> we have this rise in business confidence that makes none of this forecasting easier. what an interview. we learned a lot i look forward to more by the way, as we go to break, speaking of citi, it's among the top gyneers with bofa and deere a the notion of food scarcity were back in a moment. >>> >>do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if y

lagarde sharing not in panic mode emphasized europe reached turning point in monetary policy as it prepares to leave negative interest rates behind ecb likely to exit negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter with first interest rate increase to happen in july a, the word here that i am talking to is that europe is likely to enter a recession especially if a ban you on you russian energy is agreed upon. maria: you would think so, obviously, not a good situation given what is going on in or an europe kelly great reporting kelly o'grady in davos this week russian officials banned from world economic forum but russia dominates the conversation bill broader there will join with us to weigh in coming up, then back to new york new york city mayor eric adams putting focus on himself as crime skyrockets in his city. his shocking comments when we come back. . if you invest in the s&p 500 your portfolio may be too concentrated in big companies. this can leave it imbalanced and exposed when performance varies. invesco's s&p 500 equal weight etf, rsp, is spread equally across the s&p 500,