jim lebenthal. >> your honor. >> you bought deere. tell me why. >> probably surprises no one, including you. that's a lebenthal stock >> shocker. >> i don't know who said that, jon. we know what's going on with green prices and agriculture prices around the world, that's likely to last awhile. i believe no recession, early in economic cycle at 15 times this year's earnings, 13 times next year, peg ratio 0.9, happy to get it 20% off the high from two months ago. >> now, you sold paypal. why now? >> that expression i gave is how rich was feeling i'm going to use a tried and tr true expression. a mentor said you don't buy securities, you sell securities. you buy insecurities what he meant, you don't know as much about a stock as when you owned it awhile. what i mean is once i buy it, i have done my investment homework, but hope to get more knowledge about what the company is doing going through earnings reports. bought this two quarters ago around 180 you see where it is today. it is an obviousmiss importantly, i don't feel i know more a

jim lebenthal, josh brown. stephanie link i begin with you are we getting a rally or not? >> today we are. >> this is a rally good as it gets? >> feels pretty good it is broad based. we got some pretty good economic data, retail sales better than expected revisions better than expected control group which goes to gdp, better than expected capacity utilization, and jobs white hot market all of that is good. that leads to good earnings, we have been seeing, earnings running 12.5% first quarter, margins holding up 7 of 11 sectors seeing higher margins. estimate revisions going up, too. all of that is good. the problem is we know the economy will eventually slow down how much can the fed engineer a soft landing, that's the big wildcard inflation will stay robust i have more balance. owning quality growth, some technology companies got beaten up some cyclicals as well >> let's do it now i think it makes sense i am surprised by it buying into the industrial economy a little bit, i don't know why? >> i like what they're doing stock down 15% year to date, of 16.5 earnings. these g

you guys know that, jim lebenthal, you own gm, have for awhile phil lebeau, gm is 59 cents from ipo price of november, 2010. >> unbelievable. very disappointing i won't hide from that either. i read the note. seems to be two things it is rising costs in the ev space. the first part peak profit and legacy, internal combustion engine business, the demand that has been pent up for cars hasn't gone away. people need to drive and the cars they're driving physically depreciate need to be replaced. on top of that, there's a construction boom going on that requires pickups for general contracts, building semiconductor plants, ev plants, new mines all over the place i find it hard to believe that demand will go away. some say there will be a recession, big topic not just a small thing not a little aside >> you're absolutely right but i go back to something earlier today. last week we had 400,000 jobs. i understand you and i talked about this a lot. it is what will come next. i have been waiting for the shoe to drop in terms of job destruction but it hasn't shown up. >> you've given it a matter of

lebenthal, also on set liz young and joe terranova. let's check the markets. dow is coming off seven straight weeks of losses. it just literally went positive a few moments ago. we're good for about 50 on the dow, not much conviction on the s&p or the nasdaq, or, liz, this much talked about bear market bounce now, we were up a lot in a couple of days s&p 500 was up 4% from thursday's low nasdaq cwas up 6% from thursday' low. is it over before it starts? >> i don't have a ton of conviction in the bear market bounce either. i don't think it's going to last i think we're going to continue to see these little rallies and then givebacks probably through the month of june. i think we have to get a little bit more behind us first the next fed hike, we probably have to get two more fed hikes behinds. we can't confirm peak inflation, and i think the market is still confused about which direction we go now that people are lowering all their growth expectations yes, i think things still have to come in a little bit. if you look at some of the mea

this is where we think you have to find fallen angels and look hard >> let's bring in jim lebenthal. are you on the phone there's your face. >> i got you, scott. >> i had the gifts out of you, the market was screaming higher. this guy has to be feeling like tom cruise in "top gun." today was a scene from "airplane" with the guy sniffing glue, falling all over must feel like that in the last 24 hours you have been the most bullish person i can think of. >> so, remember on overtime last night, i came on, i had the aviators in my hand but didn't put them on. i sensed this was too early. you need confirmation. by the way, it has been a great discussion, i have been listening to you the whole time. whether it is the swamp analogy, few weeks ago with steve and josh, we had discussion if you're on a hike and know where you want to go, feel you're pretty good, going to get there, terrain in between may be crazy up and down, those analogies are apt. from that you have to take one important thing. use your head and not your heart which means you have to set a course and either stick with it as

we'll tell you where, joining me, bryn talkington, joe terranova and with me on set is jim lebenthal. dow has been down for eight strakt weeks we're having a nice bounce today. 1.75% to the upside today, it's a nice gain across the board you do have some talking about a short-term rally possible, fund strats technical strategist mark newton, says 40.20 to 40.30 is an area. 4,100 remains important as resistance this make sense to you we did get over sold, not that that matters much frankly. the market has been oversold for a while but continues to go down. >> eight weeks in a row down on the dow, that does seem to set up for a short-term bounce as you know, i think we're going to have more of a short-term bounce last week's whatever it was, friday and tuesday rallies wasn't much of a bounce. i'm not calling that, so i do think we're very oversold here, but you know, to the bigger picture of why i think we're dee for more than a bounce, this really comes down to whether we're going to have a recession or not i've been consistent in saying that i just don't see it i thought over the week

. >> glass half full, glass half empty, jim lebenthal when it comes to the losses for the past seven weeks for the s&p 500 and nasdaq in that the higher the markets go or the more stable the markets are, that's more work for the fed the side effect of the fed hiking interest rates is going to be some pull back in the equity market. if we are celebrating that the markets are stable, maybe the fed goes in harder >> melissa, i like the setup t the question it is glass half full, glass half empty and the market gets to decide what it wants to focus in on that's what sentiment means. sentiment has been overwhelmingly negative several weeks until last week. if i ask myself what changed, it really was that bostic came out and threw out the idea of pause in september that's one person, one data point. it is almost meaningless, except it is the first indication of anything like a pause. what it indicates to me is this is a market teetering on what the fed will do in terms of sentiment. and so for that you have to look at the internals of macro economic data coming up this week obviously we ha

lebenthal. check the markets. stocks on track to break the longest losing streak in decades. as carl said in the last hour, stocks positive for may or the do

you articulated on this program, i tested you on it, you have not wavered one bit, jim lebenthal what do you have >> brad, good to hear your thoughts, good to hear we're in synch. here's what the other side is saying smart people say the fed doesn't care, if inflation does moderate, fed is hell bent to raise rates. i find it hard to believe but i would love to hear your thoughts on that. you heard me earlier, dual mandate, if they meet the mandate, why rate rates. the other side is saying they're raising. and by raising i mean to 3% in the near term on fed funds rate. >> well, jim, let's be clear the bond market is already there. like that's what the world is saying the ten year is trading between 2.9 and 3. i think the surprise has already been delivered to the market the market understands we've gone from 1.6 to 2.9 on the ten year i don't think that's a surprise out of the fed i think you would have to be well over three to be a surprise to me taking the other side of the argument, of course. you heard me say on the show many times it is all a distribution of probabilities. you hav

jim lebenthal, josh brown. stephanie link i begin with you are we getting a rally or not? >> today we are. >> this is a rally good as it gets?

. >> you've obviously been on your bull retreat with jim lebenthal, you guys have been talking a lot. you have to have the same perspective if you're sticking with 5,300 as your s&p target. i ask you every time because i think it's relevant every time. >> with much humility we're wrong right now, how many people come on your network and say they're wrong. humility generates wisdom, and pride generates disgrace, and jim and i text and talk more than you know, and i think both of us have faith we do believe in fundamentals, some of the numbers that have been thrown around are not accurate, by the way, in terms of revisions and the like in terms of guidance. i think the market's got really the last 20 years has become so macro dominated that these macro figures have become such an academic practice and people are managing their money on. for instance, when you take a look at year-over-year pce, year-over-year ppi, year-over-year cci, those are the academic practices to judge inf inflation, but if you start looking at the month by month, it's already beginning to roll over even liesman is

lebenthal, what is your view, here, given what you got from the report, and what you heard from chuck robins this morning on cnbc for a stock you own? >> yeah, well, of course, it is disappointing to see a result like this. i have to note that for most of the last two years it has been one step forward, one step back. you get a good report, you get a bad report the next quarter and it all seems to have come down to supply chains, particularly now with china although that seems like that's going to pass pretty soon, so it doesn't deter me from the long-term thesis if people say, wait, why would he stick with a stock down 12, 13% today, you got to understand this stock over the many, many years does exactly what i want to in the portfolio, which is basically give the s&p 500 return, add a little dividend on top of it, and not give you all that much drama. even today, today stinks, rather, but it is not like it is a netflix or facebook down 40% day. and funny thing is, if you put up a five-year chart of cisco and compare it to some other, like the two names i just mentioned, you find it

we'll tell you where, joining me, bryn talkington, joe terranova and with me on set is jim lebenthal. dow has been down for eight strakt weeks we're having a nice bounce today. 1.75% to the upside today, it's a nice gain across the board you do have some talking

lebenthal, also on set liz young and joe terranova. let's check the markets. dow is coming off seven straight weeks of losses. it just literally went positive a few moments ago. we're good for about 50 on the dow, not much conviction on the s&p or the nasdaq, or, liz, this much talked about bear market bounce now, we were up a lot in a couple of days s&p 500 was up 4% from thursday's low nasdaq cwas up 6% from thursday' low. is i