is that what we are seeing in mainstreet as well? >> we are not seeing that in mainstreet in the u.s.. what we are seeing is this diversions between the consumer numbers and consumer confidence. the confidence index has gone down. if you look at the consumer balance sheet, excess savings of $2.5 trillion. consumer spending that is relatively strong as well. it's the distinction between confidence and what we are seeing in the actual behavior. we have seen consumer spending go up 2.4%. i think we are far away from recession in the u.s.. the risk is being priced in. liquidity is a problem in this market. it doesn't take much to move the market. haidi: a similar set of challenges for these banks, inflation, what to do about rates without causing recessionary conditions. in terms of communication, do you think one of them has done better than others westmark >> the message is you need to move as explicitly as possible. central banks take this seriously. they are prepared to move into restrictive territory if they need to do that. they ar

i know you are focused on the difference between what wall street will trade on today and what mainstreet feels. a big difference. when we start talking about core, who at their dinner table is talking about core inflation? tom: larry kudlow was big on this decades and decades ago and he was absolutely correct. it is a nominal statistic. phd's can go to cleveland. bill dudley, i think it is so important to get through this before we get to our good guest this morning. bill dudley focuses on what do you do when you get back to 4% inflation? even for percent could be an underestimate. the fed is still providing stimulus for the security which will take three to four years to wind down. this coindesk is a mistake -- this coyness is a mistake. it reinforces the chart disconnect between fed officials commitment to curb inflation and our willingness to explain what that commitment will entail. jonathan: that is the issue at play. some people will think peak year-over-year inflation establishes a trend. for others, maybe we stay here. we plateau at a higher level. i think citigroup is on that pa

when you have someone who comes from hours away to a local grocery store not in mainstreet buffalo but deaf of the african american community there is question. >> it makes you wonder, what would motivate somebody so young to come from so far away to do this kind of damage unless he's got some pass connection with the city of buffalo. so far we have not heard of anything like that. >> i am sure everyone has their theories i have my theories. whatever motivated him is pure evil. not only i'm that present i am a pastor in the city unfortunately barry's number of homicide victims in our city. i've seen my share of funerals and deaths. all of them hurt. but when someone comes into your community who we do not know why and then do something like this and feels that it is okay to live stream this on social media that is sickness. my church is not too far from this location my prayer is for justice at the end of the day that is what every victim deserves that's what this community deserves that's what the united states of america every american person and every person who is harmed, that is w

but mike dewine has remained the mainstreet republican in many aspects that usually gets punished in the age of trump or in the post-trump age. how is he sitting at 46% today? >> one thing to keep in mind joe, this is a large lead that dewine has in the polling, 46. but add 29 and 17 together and you get 46. one of this thing thats that benefited him, is when this race was taking shape, was that renacci was going to have a one-on-one with dewine. he had run for the senate with trump's endorsement. he believed getting into this race, that he would take what you're describing, channel that into an endorsement from donald trump, and get a one-on-one contest with dewine and maybe be able to sort of condense that anti-dewine/pro-trump vote. i think renacci has struggled as a candidate. we saw this with him in 2018. and what's happened, is this guy, joe blystone, has surprised everybody. a business owner that said, i am the face of what mike dewine did to business owners, did to businesses with his covid restrictions. if you didn't like that, i'm your guy. and blystone has gotten traction

there was a recent survey that showed 80% of mainstreet business owners expect a recession this year. plus 3% move yesterday was great for wall street, my firm, and my clients, at the same time that is not reality, not what people are experiencing on main street and you see that come to the forefront today. investors are understanding we have serious issues here, 50 basis points won't do it, jay powell might not know what he is doing, might be asleep at the wheel. is likely he has to continue typing during the recession because he has to fight inflation. stuart: i take it as of this moment you are not buying anything at all. >> we are sitting tight, being very patient. we will invest and kick off stocks as the opportunity presents itself but there's another 10% downside from here. when we are buying we are focusing on shorter duration stocks. a lot of people have hopped on the dividend payer bandwagon. i am not going to bore you with that but what people should be focusing on is not dividend yields but shareholder yields. that is stocks that pay a dividend or are engaging in share buy