economist michael feroli. i'll start with you. it's hard to imagine that we're having conversations about a recession when we're adding in a tight jobs market more than 400,000 jobs and an unemployment rate at 3.6% how do you square that >> so i think the recession -- at least as i understand it, the recession narrative or discussion is really about perhaps next year, not about next quarter i think most people recognize that the momentum in the economy right now is pretty favorable, as you mentioned, the jobs number looking very timely and very strong. as we see these financial conditions tighten, stocks down, rates up, dollar way up, over time if this continues then you set yourselfup for a scenario where maybe a few quarters down the line, recession becomes more of a possibility but again, as i understand it, i don't think it's a ear-term concern, at least not for me but as you look out to next year it becomes a little more of a real possibility. >> so what do you think this is all about, that big rally off the fed and the big s