abigail doolittle is tracking the move. we have lost quite a lot of steam. >> there is some softness on the morning data. s&p down 3/10 of 1%. nasdaq down 8/10 of 1%. volume is way down, down 10% below the 20 day moving average. this could have something to do with the rebalancing. in the premarket, we were both lower and higher. now, we are lower on the open. let's see if that can turn. bitcoin, down 3.4%. it seems like there is a capitulation bottom happening. if it does not take place soon, it will be interesting to see what takes shape with bitcoin. the bloomberg dollar index down ever so slightly. if we flip the boards, we will see that the vix is interesting. over the last year, you have a series of higher lows. that tells you volatility is rising as you can see. what makes this so interesting, especially giving the -- given the stock trade we have had, the bear market with the s&p 500, a set of lower highs. that tells you we haven't seen the kinds of capitulation folks wanted to see in volatility. it does seem like t

abigail doolittle joins us. it was interesting. we saw a bounce in stocks and selloff in treasuries. now we seem to be selling both. abigail: very similar to the ism the other day because that came in stronger than expected. we are back in this phase of where good news is bad news and in this case not because it means that the fed will be accommodating last, but they may have to be more aggressive around their tightening. as a result, we have stocks -- sharply. the s&p 500 down 1.6%. we are looking at the possibility of two up weeks in a row. we have a down week for the s&p 500. the nasdaq down even more, down 2.5%. this led by technology stocks, tesla being one of them. we will be looking at that in a moment. for that reason, the out of manufacturing index's down even more, down 6.5%. not surprisingly you were mentioning bond yields higher. that is in line with the idea that the fed will have to hike more. at bill -- apple, will take a look at that price. we have something interesting going on that has not happened since 2018. tha

abigail doolittle is tracking the moves for us. abigail: we have over the last three days the were stretched going back to late january. over the last three days, down 6.6%, a lot of this is on inflation coming into the cpi print and revised economic views. that report pressured the nasdaq. we have seen two year yields on the short and the curve, suffering valuation. let's break it down. we will see big declines. the retail index is down 4%, walmart and target talk about inventory problems and problems managing inflation. the report rings it into the for print. hardware is down 3.5%. the banks, this is interesting. last time i looked at it, 14 basis points. this has to do with why we have the short and spiking. we have flattening yield curves and in the case of the 530, a brief version earlier. the 210 yield curve, below 10 basis points. the banks are not liking that at all. you just broke that number not long ago. here it is, a record low. americans are not feeling confident about the current environment between growth, slowing it

abigail doolittle is looking at those. abigail: a brutal selloff. on the week is brutal as well. the last 10 weeks are pretty brutal, this is a weekly look at the indexes and you can see, down, down, down. we had the one up weekend we are looking at a second down we can around. massive losses for these indexes down more than 4%. the worst week for most indexes the last time i looked since the end of january. things are moving so quickly it could be even worse but that is still pretty bad on the hot cpi print, that has since some -- send some yields a soaring higher. the two year yield now 3%. its highest level since 2008, backing up in a huge way, the 10 year yield at 315. we have the yield curve coming in, flattening, 15 basis points not so long ago at 30 basis points. will it invert the second time? it inverted briefly in april and not so much now. as for whether or not it is a bear market rally, here is not the official bear market in terms of down 20% but you can see the strong downtrend in the s&p 500 on the air. will the slows hold the echo willits in the s&p 500 higher for

let's dive into that with abigail doolittle. abigail: it is interesting to see this. on the open we had stocks higher. the s&p 500 down .6%. having anything to do with that ism number coming in stronger than expected. perhaps it means the fed is fully on course. they floated the idea of having flexibility this year, but if the economy is ok it could maybe create the path to continue raising if needed. in any case we had some more volatility for stocks. crude is up 1.6% on the possibility that opec-plus may consider dropping the plus and exempt russia from its targets. there is also tight inventories, so we have crude oil at 116. take a look at that two year yield, backing up 10, 11 basis points. interesting day with stocks down, bonds down, and crude oil higher. it is also lower is the housing market, in terms of number of the mortgage rate here for the applications for mortgages. not surprisingly in the bottom panel here, down for a third week in a row. this as the 30 year average rate for mortgages has been trending off of the high, but nonetheless it has ticked bac

abigail doolittle joining us there. coming up, it was a rough few days after going public last week. we are going to talk to the ceo of polestar. join us for that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: this is bloomberg markets. you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. coming up, the morgan stanley chief u.s. economist. in time, new york. this is bloomberg. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, here is the first word. nato is set to label china as a systemic challenge when it outlines its new policy guidelines. merck has also learned the u.s.-led alliance will highlight beijing's deepening partnership with russia. still, nato will not go so far as to call china an adversary. in san antonio a hospital has confirmed the deaths of to bring people found in and examine symmetry. that brings the death toll to 48, apparently victims of heatstroke. authorities believe they were migrants. texas has seen a surge in immigration over recent years. smugglers sometimes use commercial trucks to bring over

abigail doolittle. talking about volatility, we have seen volatility taking a toll on capital markets activity. some of those have been put on hold. i have a chart that talks about ipo activity, bond market activity, raising money from loans, and the rates at which those activity have been delayed. this is the running tally of the number of deals that have been delayed or canceled. that is increasing at a rapid rate. we started this hour talking about whether volatility had pete. -- had peaked. alix: such an interesting chart. wanted to get that view even further from marc cooper, ceo of solomon partners. always good to get your perspective. anna's chart shows the number of deals pulled. are we at peak volatility? marc: my judgment says we are not at peak volatility. there is too much uncertainty in the marketplace. there are too many things happening, either the fed reversing qe2, the war in ukraine, interest rates going up , just too many unknowns, big items out there. that is what creates volatility

abigail doolittle is tracking some of those moves. abigail: this is the two day chart. this is last friday when we had the better-than-expected payrolls report. that has the effect of good news is bad news. elon musk not so positive on the state of the economy. today is a different story. at one point the nasdaq 100 has been up close to 2%. it will be very interesting to see how the day closes out. very low volume. elon musk, a.d. filing. he says he is asking the company for more information round fake accounts for twitter -- asking if they're not able to provide it with him it could be a breach of the contract and he could terminate that deal. shares down. tesla of 1.3% on mixed messages around what is ahead for that workforce. as for the macro driver alix was talking about, it has much to do with yields going higher over the last five days. you've a big backup and right now at 303. earlier at just 3%. those stocks could tolerate that. now 3.03 seems to be making the difference. guy: it was interesting as it built a little momentum. a tipping point for the stock market

abigail doolittle. the richest person in the world still doesn't appear to think much of working from home. elon musk sent an email to the executive staff at tesla with the subject line "remote working is no longer acceptable your come here with more is ed ludlow. he clearly has some strong views and has been getting them off his chest. tell us more. ed: we don't know who is on that speed dow. tesla has 100,000 employees approximately all around the world, from a range of software engineers to assembly-line workers. they employ a lot of contract workers. the subject line did say executive staff. the other thing that jumped out to me is he would personally vet individual cases where they want to -- where they want an exemption. imagine how busy his inbox is right now. alix: it is different when you look at the big banks, where there is competition among the banks for staff. if you like it is a different scenario when it comes to tesla. if i work at twitter today would i be freaking out? ed: i think so. t

kriti: abigail doolittle, thank you was always. let's bring back in ertharin cousin. the fuel cost as well. the trade routes that come in handy. we are talking about this magnification of this pain and food prices because of the war in ukraine. how much of that is perhaps changing where you are going to get your food around the world? a lot of the ukrainian ports are shut down. talk about the changes in the globalization or food systems around the world we could start to see? ertharin: what you need to remember is that, yes, there are a dozen countries with a certificate proportion of imports for food, for wheat and essential oils come from russia and ukraine. that includes east africa and the middle east and seven west africa. far away, asia. what happens when you take 30% of the commodities out of global food systems, it increases the price of food for the entire global food system. you have less commodities there, rising prices occur. when you begin magnify that challenge with the increase in fuel prices for the movement of the food, what it requires is more region

let's ask abigail doolittle. how does it look? abigail: in the near term we may be oversold but investors having an eye on the longer term situation. whenever we go weekly or monthly, it tells you what extreme moves we are looking at your the s&p 500 has been rounding out for a number of months at the end of 2021 to this year. this week took out critical support. what does the gap resale to the upside, above 3900, then we will see the s&p 500 go above this level but ultimately this suggests we will go back now -- down not to the target of 30 400 but closer to 3200, supporting a near-term move up is the rsi on a weekly basis but closer to the bottom, suggesting there is probably a more bearish tone i had. speaking of the near term, the vix supports it. we are going to see the range for the vix over the last year. what is so amazing is the vix has continued to put in a series of lower highs, telling you that the volatility is not matching the stock volatility. the lowly had this week, the last time the s&p 500 and they had the vix p

abigail doolittle joins us on set. is this sustainable? what is the market waiting for, to really see this bear market is over? >> a little bit of a roller coaster ride right here on the day, which underscores the point that you are making, is this sustainable? we are actually up almost 10% from the may 20th trough low. we had been up 1% today. now we are up about .4%. it seems to do with the uncertainty and the move in yields. earlier today, there was a lot of enthusiasm for the idea that china lockdowns are coming to an end. that also cut main some inflation -- that also could mean some inflation. it could drive oil prices higher. other natural resources higher. we see yields going higher. once the 10 year yield hits let's call it 303 or so, that really seems to send. stocks are led lower. . it is interesting to see that this is -- send stocks a leg lower. it is interesting to see this continue. it is expected to be lower for may than april. >> when i look at what the strategists are saying right now, you look at the s&p 500, the fact th

bloomberg's abigail doolittle. let's turn to trade. u.s. commerce circuitry gina raimondo says it may make sense to lift some of the tariffs on some goods as a way of cooling inflation. take a listen. sec. raimondo: steel and aluminum, we have decided to keep some of those tariffs because we need to protect our workers and our steel industry as a matter of national security. there are other products, household goods, bicycles, etc., that it may make sense. guy: so this is where we stand. president biden's team is weighing what to do with former president trump's tariffs on around $300 billion worth of goods imported from china. we've got some comments coming through from the udtr -- the ustr. it is a difficult balancing act for the president. he needs to deal with inflation. but going into november, does he want to go soft on china right now? greg valliere, agf investments she policy strategist, joins us now. inflation is such a big problem. anything that could be done about it, may be done by this administration, but is cutting china tarif

thank you so much, abigail doolittle for that report on the markets. i want to continue on the supreme court decision that came out today. we have joe matthews, washington correspondent and host on bloomberg radio. bring us up-to-date on the demonstration or the gathering of there. what are you seeing? joe: the crowd was a little bigger after the ruling was awe saw lines of people streaming to capitol hill and the supreme court behind me but those who remain are very vocal. there were signs i couldn't read on the air, this being a family program, there are also chants that are familiar, "no justice, no peace." we have heard music and songs being sung. there have been both pro-choice and pro-life activists who have gathered, hundreds and even thousands at various points of the day. and of course, that brings up the issue of security. capitol police are between the supreme court and the u.s. capitol. we know that the justices are being protected at their homes as well. last week the president signed into law legislation that gives justices' families the

let's get some update with abigail doolittle. abigail: take a look at the s&p 500, a closer to the lows than the index levels. give the nasdaq 100 up slightly which has a lot to do with the index up 1.7%. some big winners within their have all to do with china tech which is serving another day as the backdrop continues to be positive. this is the last day you'll have metal platforms trading under the facebook ticker, tomorrow it will be meta-. one pressure for stocks overall for yields rising just a little bit here you have that 10 year yield up about three basis points. it will be interesting to see how this one shakes out. francine: investors trying to find some direction bird credit suisse shares bouncing back after a report saying if they had a buyer. early reports were that they were cutting staff. we spoke with the chief executive in davos. >> it's clear the results are not there, people are asking questions. i have a clear mandate. the mandate and the executive board is to add to -- execute the strategy. and number three,

joining us now is abigail doolittle. abigail: at one point we had the nasdaq 100 higher. it seemed as though stocks would put a three-day rally together, but that didn't happen. some pressures including oil rising, inflation, yields rising inflation, and the head of the sec, gary gensler, at a tech conference, gave some details around potential regulation for markets. that is when stocks seemed to take a nosedive. the s&p 500 closing down more than 1%. nasdaq 100 down more than three quarters of 1%. yields higher. investors continue to be worried about inflation ahead of friday's all important cpi report. there is hope especially for large cap tech. when we look at what is happening, we are looking at a fancy chart put together by our very talented markets team. the nasdaq 100, shown here in white, is a downtrend. in yellow we are looking at the number of the nasdaq 100 members above the 50 day moving average. it is slowly but surely creeping higher at 37%. the technical suggests we could see that go above 50%. that is similar to what we are seeing for the s&p 500. the bo

here is abigail doolittle. abigail: that was an interesting question she raised, 3800 more specifically. about 3810 on the s&p 500. and here you can see we are below that level. we also officially in a bear market for the s&p 500. the question is will be close there or rise back above. we are taking a look at a chart, and talk about that later on. the nasdaq 100 and other markets have been in a bear market, down 20% for quite some time. the nasdaq 100 down by 3.7%. and etf down from their peak. a brutal bear market for the nasdaq 100. not a brief one. it's a long, slow one to mess adjusting there is more to come. the regular vix, the fear index with uncertainty, back up above 30. not at for an egg levels, but a significant rise -- panic levels, but a significant rise. the rise in yields, the two year is up i-16 basis points, just amazing. and the 10 year is narrowing. so it could flatten or invert once again, the curve, so that is a harbinger of some sort of recession at some point. and one of the culprits for

abigail doolittle is watching those moves in the equity market. abigail: we are waiting on the fed, that seems to be the theme for stocks and bonds. not just for tomorrow, but for july as well. that had the s&p 500 moving up and down right now. we don't know at the end of the day what way this is going to go. anything seems possible. this is interesting, a forward-looking gauge of inflation that has come in. 4.29%, pretty incredible. finally, we take a look at natural gas, 2.7%. the delay of that terminal coming back online, that would create a scarcity, but that is not the case. this is very interesting. you can see back in 2020, basically signaling when it goes out, it is basically insurance. you can see it has gone sharply higher, almost at 100 basis points. fred investors are a little bit more worried about the cycle. as for some of the individual members, these are incredible. the idea that folks won't travel, you rise in oil. it is really pretty incredible, that reopening trade simply not working right now. >> thank you very much, indeed. he

abigail doolittle is tracking the moves. abigail: it's all about the cti number. this week today chart is coming down to the wire. we have had up moves, down moves, and are slightly higher in the week, but a moment to go were slightly lower. it will be down to the wire as far as that cti print and where inflation is. we are seeing something for the first time we haven't seen since 1981, double-digit increases for both food and for energy. back to october 2021, food up 3.2%. now in may, up nearly 12%. it's incredible, how much we have seen food absolutely rising. we are also seeing something unusual relative to the 210. it is narrowing, or tightening over the last year or so, but 2.81 the last time i looked, the highest level since 2018, the 10 year yield at 3.03%. they will be interesting to see whether we tighten more and go back to the inversion we saw in early april. let's take a look at what we have going on in the stocks for the day. semiconductors up, on speculation there could be m&a action there and a possible buyout. tesla up 5.4%, production and china tr

abigail doolittle, turning it around? abigail: we have a two day chart of this beautiful rally popping on the idea that a 75 point hike won't be common but overnight, cooler heads prevailed, down 1.9% overall. however the question is if this will last and a big piece of this had to do with recession fears, odds increasing back in february. nobody thought that there would be a recession by 2024 and then march, 9%, april, 45%. 72%, yesterday we had something else happen that would suggest recession is ahead to, weighing on stocks despite the fact that jay powell said it was unlikely we would get the supersize hikes. the yield curve, the less look at part of the yield curve, inverting yesterday, if we can go into the bloomberg, for the first time since 2006, telling you that a superhot economy is colliding with the brief fed meeting that is now higher again and it is nonetheless a couple of years ahead of the financial crisis. perhaps a tell on the recession at some point with another 24 months. interesting relative to the n

abigail doolittle has been tracking each and every one. abigail: interesting day because we are looking at losses earlier but now have a small gain for the s&p 500. this is consistent with what we saw in the premarket because overnight, down for the s&p 500 and then not so long before the open, up zero point percent. this of course after the rebound last week. nonetheless, windowdressing probably happening as well. one momentum growth now. anything is possible. the bulls of last week with the s&p up trying to take charge again. we see a very strong sector here. oil and gas exploration etf, so energy last week down but this week a bit of a bounce. that is with new york crude up. crude oil itself doing something it has not done in quite some time. we are looking at the longer-term chart of crude oil. in yellow, that is the 200 week moving average. in purple or pink, the 100 and moving average. the last time we saw it was late last year. at this point, we never hit the 100 week moving average. the question is, is it going to bounce or are we

abigail doolittle is tracking those moves for us. abigail: so much for the bear market bounce. at least for the major averages. the nasdaq 100 down about 2%. s&p 500, down more than 1%. earlier up more than 1%, so we have had a reversal. some of this coming on that consumer confidence coming in weaker than expected. you can see pockets of strength here. china technology higher as china has halved its quarantine time for travel, and in the bank index. interestingly this had been up more than 1% earlier too as the big banks have given details on dividends. yields are higher, but it is paring its gains as well. now we take a look at what we have here, we are going to see the picture of volatility. not such a smooth road. overnight up, down, up higher, then sharply higher around the time of the open. right now down more than 1.1%. this really puts that fragile bear market bounce last week into question. bringing some other stock moves into the picture, it is interesting to see what is happening with nike. this is a drag on the major indexes. nike down five point 6% on a disappointi

abigail doolittle on the markets. coming up here, what is on the agenda for the next 24 hours, a little later today, we get a third hearing on the january 6 capitol attack at 1:00 p.m. new york time and we will hear from the president a little bit later on, president biden speaking on vaccinating kids under five. we have also got primaries in virginia, washington, d.c., alabama. we also have the runoffs in georgia. alix: truly want to main event tomorrow site from your panels at the economic forum, fed chair jay powell giving testimony before congress. the house on thursday. note miss that. you get eurozone consumer confidence. just how hot is how hot? that wraps it up right here on television. coming up, jane harman joins "balance of power" with david westin. don't forget to join us on cable live on digital radio and at the london area you can catch all of that and we will go to the news in europe and u.k. as well as hit on the key points in the u.s. as you look at the market, nasdaq still up holding on to the sessio

abigail doolittle, romain, let's start with you. stocks have gone down, they are due about. the question here, the operative word, sustainable. romaine: the short answer is, no. if you are going by historical measures, historical metrics, valuation, everything would tell you, from looking at the s&p 500 and aggregate, we haven't retraced that valuation level. we meet the definition of what some value is best to look for. the other side of that coin, where is the support in the market. traditionally, the support would come from the fed. anytime you have a major selloff, the fed is -- policy measures. jay powell has made clear, he is not focused on that right now. the fed is not about financial markets anymore, it is about the economy. that is what he is focused on. lisa: hop ended the conversation. kriti: there is other components of this market. the equity market in particular, trading on here, is it margins, valuations, or technicals. what is the signal that the equity investors should be following? abigail: this comes down to liquidity. we have had a massive surge in liqui

abigail doolittle is tracking some of those moves. abigail: almost a turnaround tuesday from that ugly open. the s&p 500 basically flat after yesterday's game. see if he can turnaround, and one help for stocks, especially the nasdaq, those tech-heavy stocks. yields are in after backing up over five or six days. you now have that 10 year yield back below 3%. the vix, there -- there continues to be about -- a disconnect. but see if the bics can go below 25. as for the future look, the s&p 500, everyone wondering if it is a bear market rally, this is the breath on the s&p 500 and the number of members above the 50 day moving average. over the last year so it is the -- it is declining, but after touching the bottom of this range it appears we could see it go higher. currently about 41% of members are above their 50 day moving average. this chart suggests in the near term it could go closer to 60 or more. that might make the case the bounce we have had over the last week or two, a bumpy bounce, but could continue. as for target, i'm curiou

abigail doolittle is tracking those moves today. abigail: take a look at this. overnight, all day chart of the s&p 500 futures, a roller coaster ride for sure overnight, down, then down 1%, then up about .4 percent as target started to come off of its lows and tech was doing well. as yields went lower -- that is the key today -- 10 year yield back below 3%, but we can see we are looking at a small loss. as for some individual sectors outperforming or underperforming, take a look at the oil and gas sector, up 1.8%. there are three different energy stocks making all-time highs today. software doing well. tech also doing well. earlier those sectors had been up more than 1%. that is the reasons we have stocks coming in. retail down 2%, and then has to do with that second target lowering of the outlook in three weeks. the stock, under pressure. guy: absolutely. going to be interesting to see where target closes today. what we will be looking out for the next 24 hours. primaries in several states. california and new jersey, iowa, and new mexico. that is going to be in