the s&p is up 1.3% david, mike wilson of morgan stanley told us he's fading the rally. gary cohn, former president of goldman sachs, says he's leaning more towards being a buyer after the fed. what was your takeaway about what it means for stocks >> sara, first of all, i think jay did a fantastic job of outlining why they did this and giving us some guidance into how they're going to operate at the end of the year. the inflation expectation data particularly the sentiment data that came out i think really got the committee on edge and got them to think they can't mess around with that they can't mess around with 40 years of inflation fighting credibility that has been built up they're going to be pretty fierce about it and that's what the 75 dip is. i think the market -- it's funny to talk to clients earlier this week and tell them, hey, i think the market would actually rally on a 75, a strong fed telling you they are on top of this rather than a weak fed at 50 and say don't worry about it we're going to play fast and loose with expectations. he did the right thing he

mike wilson at morgan stanley is talking about it and had a great call on the bear market talking about the idea that we could see a multiweek balance and i believe that call is based on fibonacci levels, which i do less work around but when i do the chart using simplistic techniques it goes to the same levels with a gap to be filled towards that 200 day moving average. the interesting thing, though, i know that mike wilson and others are talking about a week or two weeks but there are some signs here that it could be much longer, one of these really tricky bear market rallies that goes on for weeks and weeks and weeks and maybe even a couple of months, sucker punching people into thinking that the bear market is over and i think there's a 20% chance for that but more likely there is more downside. dani: i can see romain overhear avidly nodding his head. romaine: a little bit of a nod, a little bit of a shake. kailey: head movement. romaine: head movement, yeah, on those technical levels i think we are where we thought we would be as mike wilson talked about in the notes that he was ref

we saw mike wilson of morgan stanley once again raising those concerns today. if you look at consumer discretionary stocks, whether it is the airline sector, american airlines down more than 9%. cruise operators by carnival, caesars entertainment, names in the technology sector that have already charged ahead, once again feeling some pain in this monday trading session. kriti: a lot of pain across the markets. amidst that wall of worry, supply chain issues, geopolitics. one driver stands out. one of our inmost's weight in. >> inflation is really the achilles' heel of the risk market. this economy is going to require higher real yields to slow down and put some downward pressure on inflation. that is exactly what we are seeing this morning. kriti: joining us now for more insight is was mccormick, chief correspondent for global macro markets. thanks for joining us. yes, we have higher yields and selling off, but for me, the story is the dollar. you see strength upon strength. what turns this around? what makes the dollar weaker? >> i think the dollar is just amaz

but mike wilson, thank u you. and you're welcome that we keep having that picture of you i think it was senior year of college. can we update it or do you like that? you just refuse to send us a more recent one? >> it's good to be ageless, joe. you understand that. >> now you're talking. thank you. that was a grak answer it is great. see you later. >>> up next, we're going to board the airline sector and have our flight canceled no, hopefully not. >>> and find outif you should be adding positions to your portfolio. and at 7:30, breaking news from kellogg in the last few minutes. the ceo will join us right here on "squawk box." that's a big move for llg.keog a very well-known brand name i'm not sure you should get rid of it, steve we'll be right back. we got iphone 13s, too. switched to verizon two minutes ago. (mom brown) ours were busted and we still got a shiny new one. (boy brown) check it out! (dad allen) so, wait. everybody gets the same great deal? (mom allen) i think that's the point. (vo) now everyone can

., mike wilson of morgan stanley who will be on with me in "overtime" today unless he cancels because i called him that. i hope he doesn't. he's been negative, right? now he says, it takes time for earnings revisions to head lower and in the meantime, stocks can hang around current levels until q2 earnings season when the next leg lower is about to end. he's as negative as he's been, but he's not an idiot. he sees the fact that the market has rallied 10%, as i said, and there is a little bit of momentum behind the move so thinks it can maybe stay here, maybe go up a little more but, you know, obviously then it's going to be judgment time. what do you think about that view >> obviously i agree with it and, you know, for forever on the panel to consider i think what's obvious for markets in the last several weeks is that we've now fortunately reached a moment and i'll call it just a moment where we're not getting a negative response to negative news anymore i mean, jon knows this well. pete came on air he made a fantastic purchase of nvidia at lower levels we had what was a report which

charles: mike wilson, morgan stanley the drawdown could be as much as 50% from the high. i started this segment off how much destruction has been already. if we do go 50% from the high earlier this year, that would break the record from the great financial crisis. we would be talking about like 75% of gdp. is that necessary? >> it is not necessary. i would completely disagree. you don't get that kind of recession or kind of correction when you have 3.6% employment. healthy wage year-over-year. fighting inflation nowhere near the rock bottom of the economy is still shaky. consumer demand is still strong. you don't recess when that happens. charles: michael how much more downside, a, can be or b, has to be? many are saying we have to go down a certain amount, bottom line, they don't care what the news is. we have to shake everything out, whether you believe too much enthusiasm on main street or anything else? >> i agree with phil. i thought that was really good comment. you remember loss of 50% from the peak, drop of 50% like mike is talking about, that is exceedingly rare

>> that's where mike wilson is probably pulling out he does it on a fundamental analysis february 24. so if we go down to that level, what's the only thing that's changed from that time to now are rates. we're moving into a ramping as bk said. so maybe you break that level, but i think that has to be the next level to watch. >> great segue let's dive into the key -- >> there's a rundown >> first time for anything mark newton, mark, great having you on you say 3810 just like steve key level for the s&p. 280 for the qqq nasdaq etf that's around their may lows do you see them holding at those levels >> hey, frank. thanks for having me i do think there's an above average chance these can hold for a couple of different reasons. one is that this entire selloff in the last few days has been driven by the dollar and yields moving back up now both are near critical resistance and i think they can hold in the fed meeting. my own cycles and projections show that yields can start to back off so i like buying tlt. s&p for now, the spx, that's a key level. you know, i do think that probably can hol

that's mike wilson's take. and then david kostin, chief strategist at goldman stacks and the earnings side, if the earnings estimates for the s&p moves to $225 a share, halfway to the recession scenario of $200, a 14 times price to earnings would bring the s&p 500 to 3,150 and by the way, that's down 19% from where we closed on friday so a big note out there from goldman sachs on the target for the s&p. and it is not just stocks we're watching also check on what is happening with high yield bonds. over the course of the last year plus, many investors have turned towards high yield and investment grade corporate bonds for an enhancement in yield and income versus treasuries we know how bad it has been for treasuries in terms of return, but check out over the course of the last few weeks, it has been a sharper move lower for this white line, which is junk bonds. concerns about the recession, the economy, and also rising rates, all factor in, but still that junk bond trade, relative weakness, something to watch ke

mike wilson says, when we can test the 400 on the s&p, maybe by late august. last week, a 20 basis point move. the questions you have been asking. buehrle, 2020. tom: what happens when we get a trio one 10 year? jonathan: we think about going through the highs of the year again. it has been a little bit of a challenge over the previous few months. over in europe, we started on the german 10 year yield at almost 20 basis points. right now, positive. this morning coming very close. a whole lot higher. a little bit lower this morning. many people -- just the consensus view, expecting the ecb. tom: you can see the tension. it hates around 140. that is a big deal. it gets you back to strong year of and week -- weak yen. jonathan: you might be able to stay awake for the conference. that is across the price action. single names. lisa: good morning. i was going to say that there are some nice moves here. thank you for building that up for tom. you might be able to stay awake is a good description. i imagine. the wall street journal reported that china was wrapping up

lisa: mike wilson pointed to this as one of the reasons of more of a tell off to -- on the s&p in the next year. one provisions come up downward, people will reset. do you disagree? sam: no, i don't. when you look back at -- and pe revisions, about 33% reduction in p/e ratios. that will blend the s&p 500 based on 2022 earnings estimates down --. if you look to a couple of technical indicators, the head and shoulders pattern, that target -- that flattens around that target as well. tom: sam, are we in bull market rally in mid --? or is a bottom new form of market? sam: we are in rally of a bear market. right now we just got back to average pe on a forward 12 month earnings. typically we traded a discount. a significant discount when all is said and done. too many people in my opinion believe the fed will be able to engineer a soft landing in 1994. when you see the fed funds rate below headlines cpi at the beginning of the right height cycle, usually, it is the reverse where fed fund is higher than inflation. the fed has a lot of catch-up to play. lisa: given the fact that people are lo

mike wilson over at morgan stanley, the recession draw down is already 60% of the gloom. kailey: he said that his father to go. 3000 is the level he is looking at on the s&p 500. you also happy to oppenheimer saying the market -- you also have peter drop in hammer say it is vulnerable to further deterioration. mark jp morgan says too much recession risk has been priced in. there is a wide divergence on the outlook. i wonder how much is going to come down whether earnings are able to hold up and we get a look at that in a couple weeks. tom: futures up 66. dow futures up almost 500 points. the vix comes in with eight points. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ edgar: tom: "bloomberg surveillance", good morning to you. nasdaq up 9%. the feelings for her around the recession globe was out there. we didn't see that crypto. kailey: numbers we haven't seen in years, -- now we are taking a look at that on bloomberg crypto. tom: a massive amount, lisa and i live this every day of court out there. really turns have an intelligent conversation away from the -- of bitcoin. i saw ove

mike wilson is the bear that called the selloff. a temporary bowl. stocks could rise 8%. it would not be completely out of character with previous bear market rallies. he does see the s&p 500 getting back down to about 4300-4200 -- 3400-3500. if there is a recession, it could fall 23%. this is only a temporary time for buying stocks. haidi: you talk about the uncertainty when it comes to the sentiment of cross bonds. we are seeing that across a number of asset classes. australian features are looking unchanged. we may see a slight dip at the start of trading. the dollar is not moving much. it has been pushed and pulled by the warring factions of either the recovery in china, but also performing quite badly in a risk off sentiment. kiwi stocks are trading pretty slow at the market -- moment. that has been boosting the yen as well which has been quite interesting. we saw that rise in the previous trading session with the uncertainty in the growth outlook and the prospect of a u.s. recession as well. qe dollar trading just over 63 u.s. when it comes to all the bond story, al

the pushback i got this morning when i put that work of yours out there with mike wilson was ultimately, however they brought -- how have they brought their earnings down already? why is this the case when these issues are so well understood and so talked about every morning on programs like this? it still has not happened. why not? >> i think there are a couple reasons. first off, there's no doubt that it is an extraordinarily tough environment in which to forecast. i think there's a little bit of a wait and see. i think people are very focused on second and third quarter earnings. the second piece, this is a refinement of how reliant bottom up that analysts have become on corporate guidance? it is horrifying that there is little productivity among bottoms up analysts to go down on a limb and cut numbers without corporate management telling them exactly what to do. that is problematic in terms of their value proposition to investors because it is not particularly helpful. haidi: morgan stanley wealth management cio lisa shalett. all features extending gains in the age of trading sessio

wilson at morgan stanley who has a target of three 800. this is a pretty bearish start. guy: it certainly is, ouch. the house committee investigating the january 6 attack on the u.s. capitol is back underway. this is vice-chairman liz cheney from earlier. >> you will also hear testimony of the president taking advice from his election night but it was recommended by an apparently inebriated advisor that said he one. there was a false claim that everything was fraudulent. guy: we go now to capitol hill. what do we expect today and why the delay? ann-marie: you had terms can pain manager having a family emergency as his wife was giving birth to their child. you will hear testimony from him on video and this is more what you can expect from today. the top advisors had told donald trump that this election was not stolen but you heard from representative liz cheney that he rejected those claims and projected -- and went with the influence of rudy giuliani to have the claims of election fraud and use that to campaign and make money off of it and

mike wilson coming into this week saying we could go down to 3400. he said that before. your market rally a few weeks ago can continue for a few more weeks until the fed makes it crystal clear they remain hawkish in earnings revision forward. he is looking for that 3400 number by mid-to-late august. tom: get out the calendar. ecb fed is definitive in june. but i love the idea -- and you have been good on this or that calendar has sped up, where we are doing media reviews the first week of june, second week of june. i like what oldman said, in that there is a narrow what if -- what goldman said, and that there is a narrow what if path. there is a narrow path of how we thread the needle through 2022. jonathan: narrow landing strip for a soft landing over at goldman. that is the hope. tom: to me, the uncertainties are so great, and i will look at the bloomberg, look up a terminal. i see a jump condition in copper. jonathan: equities picking up by more than 1% on the s&p 500, yields a little bit higher. looking ahead to this week, cpi on friday. ecb decision this thursday. v

ultimately, that is what mike wilson and morgan stanley brag about this morning. >> you go through, and there's a lot of different areas, but i didn't see a lot of conviction. a blistering note last week, he said inflation expectations come down hard they rolled over hard. i didn't see a lot of conviction out there. jonathan: laura, let's start with that bond market. what is the dominant effect of high-level yields and the durability of the equity market rally? >> is a great question. the rate strategy team has been looking for that on the 10 year yield. those growth concerns and recession concerns, it was way on that bond yield strangely, this ends up being a stabilizing force in the equity market because of its contribution to things like market cap and net income. i think it feels a limit contradictory in nature, but i do think that is one of things that has really been giving some stability to markets. as i've talked to investors the last couple weeks, there a real purpose that if we get a recession, it will largely play out in the next couple quarters and we won't have any lasting

equity market, my colleague, mike wilson thinks -- has generally adjusted to the rate rise we have seen. what it has not adjusted to is earnings downgrades, which you usually get when you have this reduction of natural conditions, which we have had those risks of growth, declines in pmi's that we think are likely. that is where the rubber meets the road, there is a scenario more positive than ours where the companies are able to continue their earned profits and hit those consensus numbers. in that case, the market could stabilize around current levels. if they cut earnings as we expect, we think there is downside risk. it is too early to try and enter the market. lisa: which is the reason you are looking elsewhere. i was surprised to see where else you are looking. japan, why? based on the fact you have seen the yen depreciate, a lot of people expect the bank of japan will have to follow. andrew: that is a fair question. it is apparent that every major global equity market in the world had -- has its own challenges. europe has active ecb hiking, it has the war in ukraine. china has the

mike wilson of morgan stanley out in front saying there is earnings risk over the next few quarters. tom: it talks about quality. full faith and credit. everybody wants to buy it. i am sure it will go well. the quality issue -- yet here are selected retailers, goldman sachs saying they're going nowhere. maybe quality is the theme forward. lisa: core staples versus discretionary. how much will that be the driver? or how much is this a period when equities may suffer more than the underlying economy? 19 stuck out. -- one line stuck out. this has to do with margin pressure and it has to do with households that can sell the stocks to get benefits but might actually cushion them during the downturn. tom: let's go to home depot, which is not restoration hardware. from a 356 down to 309. that is a good place to start the data check because equities follow on from the good feeling. goldman sachs going the other way. jonathan: building a last week, up .4%. the nasdaq up 62 points. yields higher by five basis points, pushing 3.20 on the 10 year. euro-dollar is where it is at. sitting around to

. >>> we begin with the talk of the tape the world according to mike wilson who said this bear bounce can continue if only for a little while longer.

if you listen to mike wilson, he says this market is not prepared for the kind of economic downturn we are going to see, which is why he is looking down death 3000. oppenheimer, 5330. futures, 37.15. lisa: he is expecting a 40% rally. studies showing the divergence between where stocks are and where they are priced to be by individual stock analysts, one of the widest since 2000. where is the capitulation in price? kailey: we have been looking for capitulation for months, we never seem to see that disorderly selling pressure. it has been quite orderly. there is a pattern and consistency to this market. it hasn't felt like a cathartic puke. [laughter] lisa: the sophisticated angst can be felt in the dollar. the flipside is the week yen. the strong dollar is the united theme, the remaining hedge at a time where bonds have been unreliable. tom: something that may be speaks to the difference of eight unionized, continental europe and london -- a unionized , continent of europe and london. the drama in the united kingdom is tangible, witnessing sterling cannot get out of its way, 122.46. th

tom: mike wilson of morgan stanley out with an orton research note and i just really want to parse it in the idea of will it conserve cash or continue use of cash share buybacks? we will talk more about that in a bit. right now we have demanded what she is is expert, even though federated, a wicked short-term market. cunningham, you are focused on not the two-year yields, but the fear to move inside of one year. what is happening in the 12 months or lower space? >> first of all, we have offices in boston, so i am wicked understanding. as far as the one-year space goes, one year and under, you are looking at preservation of principal. if you're even in the two-year, you are worried still about big breakouts from a pricing standpoint to the low side simply because of the rising rate environment and not having enough income yet to cover that difference. on the one year and under space, that is pretty much a stable value product that you are looking at. your return is basically what your income is generating. that income is not huge yet, but it is continuing to go up. june and july it is

the most bullish one now, by default, is mike wilson because he -- >> mike wilson has gotten it all right -- >> fire and ice coalition nishgsen, how he's going to win the south and north. what i find amazing, david, is there's suddenly the realization we're in a bear market and things are quite bad in the meantime you and i know almost every stock has been clocked, except for say exxon. >> that's more or less true. >> right >> there's a look at what dow has done i don't care about the dow i think they do this to antagonize us. >> we should do the russell. >> thank you. >> because that -- the s&p is good >> yeah. >> or the nasdaq i'm just saying that destruction is so palpable, but people are just beginning to recognize, we have to cut our price targets. let's cut our price -- let's downgrade adobe. morgan stanley did that. do you know how many more we have to have there's so many buy to hold downgrades >> getting rid of your ceo is that how you bottom? >> did you listen to the last conference call on doccusign >> it was a jailbreak. one of those like dan, why are -- i shouldn't laugh peop

technology is a focus here we have comments from two investment banks first, morgan stanley's mike wilson saying given the growing evidence of slowing growth and risk to earnings, we think the s&p is headed toward 3,400 before the more tradeable low is in that would imply another 13% decline from this morning. also from goldman sachs, if the eps estimate for the s&p moves to $225, halfway to the recession scenario of 200, a 14 times pe would bring the s&p to 3150 by year's end that would be a 19% move lower keep those in mind turning to the bond market which is driving the action in just about every asset class. you see the 10-year treasury is higher below 3.24%. 2-year treasury is 3.2%. we do see the inversion effect taking hold between two years and ten years. it waivers about we will keep an eye on that as they stick together. we will see how it plays out >>> also what is happening with cryptocurrencies they are sharply lower this morning. bitcoin prices are no longer trying to hover around the 30,000 mark. just above $24,000 down 12% elsewhere in cryptocurrencies with the smaller toke

it plays into the hands of mike wilson of morgan stanley who suggests multiples come down enough in the stock market, but he is still negative because earnings haven't come down earnings are the next big shoe to drop. when that happens, then you have the pull back he has been looking for. some cases already happened. he is looking for more for those reasons. >> i think there are certainly some industries that have margin pressure, witnessing it here on the big box retailers. there are other companies and industries that margins are holding up remarkably well technology for one that's for sure. number two, energy and materials. their margins are going higher, even in the face of higher costs because they have pricing power. you want to focus on companies with pricing power cornell screwed up he just did. he didn't get the shift from goods to services. neither did walmart. they were buying this back in december they should have they should have foreseen this coming they didn't. that is why the stock target is down 30% and it trades 13 times earnings nobody believes them now now it is a cr

alix: mike wilson at morgan stanley talking about this. he wrote in his weekly note that tech revisions broadly across semis, tech hardware, software look uninspiring. we think we should see relative weakness procyclical tech subgroups over the coming months as forward eps expectations get reset. i wonder, when you're talking to traders, how much of this has priced in? kriti: a good chunk of it is because valuations is key. now you're looking at valuations that go back to repent levels -- to pre-pandemic levels. but the last quarter of 2019, the same narrative was that tech was overpriced. you have this extreme liquidity environment and this does not make sense, what levels track is stating that what levels tech is trading at. -- what levels tech is trading at. so the same problem is still there, but what gina said about the rates picture is crucial because if you talk about why rates are such a major part of the tech trade and for traders, it is all about liquidity. and i'm not talking about market liquidity. this was their major bonus th

if mike wilson's right and he's been right for a long time, i'll be bearing back in a lot cheaper from here. >> so, you've sold stock in blackberry, which i had forgotten you even had and you sold gap shares. >> yes >> take me through the gap stock and you sold calls in a lot of things i'm not going to get to you can tweet them out because there's too many to mention. you sold your position why >> well, i get emails every day, like many of your viewers, that are basically 60% off, 70% off sales. i know target had to cut too and that's one of the options i sold was calls on target i sold many retailers because i think they're going to flush it. i think they're just going to have tacut price dramatically to move things. and again, it's breken recareered but that's before they move interest rate ares up and people start having tougher and tougher credit going forward. because of these higher interest rates. the biggest debtor is the u.s. it's not you and me. but this is going to hurt the u.s. pretty dramatically, those nonpayments off interest even though it lacks like we make payments bu

mike wilson from morgan stanley saying the markets haven't fully priced in full blown recession if that were the case, we could get down to 3,000, 2900 specifically, josh right now, from where we are, that's quite a bit of down side. what do you think? >> i think we need to not pay a ton of attention to wall street strategist consensus expectations because they're usually wrong. this year they have been spectacularly wrong. they were looking for 2% at the high end for fed funds this year, lol. they were talking goldman, sachs bitcoin, 100,000 as recently as december, january. we were hearing about s&p 500 targets ranging from 4800 to 5300 and then it is not their fault, it is impossible nobody had on their bingo card an invasion of the ukraine and the most expansive land war in europe in 70 years it is just not the kind of thing you can foresee, or the repeated lockdowns in china those two factors exacerbated headline volatility and inflation to the point where the fed had to go so far and beyond what anyone expected that we wind up in the situation we are in now this idea that all of a

mike wilson on morgan stanley has hot hand as far as folk on the street. market is not pricing recession. we should be down 15 or 20%. you buying that phil. >> i am. market at this point accepted we're not based on strength of consumer. charles: you don't think there will be recession? >> i really don't. charles: mitch, wilson is saying probably we should be pricing that in and that means more near term -- is biden here? we have him. listen to president biden on the new gas actions. president biden: first today i'm calling on congress to suspend the federal gas tax for the next 90 days through the busy summer season, busy travel season. here is what that means. every time you go to the gas station to fill your tank, the federal government charges an 18-cent tax per gallon of gas that you purchase and a 24-cent gas per gallon of diesel you purchase. it is a tax that has been around for 90 years. it is important because we use it for the highway trust fund to keep our highways going, but what i'm propose something suspending the federal gas tax without affec

charles: so, with that in mind we had mike wilson out of morgan stanley saying s&p 3400. then it would go lower from there. goldman saying worst-case scenario is 3150, rbc 3200. if we go lower from here, you think we'll see this week at least on wednesday, where is the potential bottom? >> well, there is a lot of support in the post-covid rally around 3281. so it would be really interesting to see. that is my number where that support is but if it breaks below, that is dependent upon the fed pivoting, if it breaks below that, my long-term chart says we could test 2500, which would be 2187, the low in the covid era. just dependses on the pivot. i don't think we'll see a bottom until the fed either talks pivot, confirms pivot, the markets can safely anticipate a pivot. charles: so with that in mind what are you doing in in market? are you buying anything? are you selling anything? are you hedging? what actions are you taking? >> not today. some of our managed futures are up 30% for this year. so we have actually buoyed our portfolio quite nicely with managed futures, manage

talking about the 3800 level mike wilson from morgan stanley i believe has talked about the 3400 level so right where guy was talking about his well, 3400, 3500 carl, i think the major issue that i'm dealing with is everyone i speak with on a daily basis is asking me when to buy the dip. you can't have a substantive bottom until people want to sell everything you've got to have people throwing things out, not worried about is this a buyable dip. we haven't got there yet when we do, you're going start to feel nausea about the market. and no one feels nausea right now, even though people have lost tons of money no one is sitting here saying oh my god, the markets are never going up again that day is when the bottom comes. i would say that guy's level of 3750, mine 3800, we're probably a little too conservative. it's probably somewhere in the middle there so i think we could feel safe saying it's 3500, 3600 and you know what? maybe nausea is 3400 >> you know, julie, it's funny we thought we were getting to that area back when the vix was flirting with 30 and above now we're back to 24 and

lauren: yeah, mike wilson, their chief of equity strategy, he says there's no all-clear sign yet. he says the s&p 500 likely going down another 18% from here, that gets you to s&p 3,400 by the end of the missouri because the fed is going to tackle high inflation with higher rates stuart: did you say 3,400? lauren: by the end of the second quarter. stuart: that's the end of this month. lauren: yes. stuart: that's june 30. lauren: yes. stuart: the s&p is at 41 right now. lauren: the fire and ice, that's the ice scenario. stuart: okay, well we did hear it all right mark tepper is with us, listening to all of this. >> whoa. that's quite a drop. stuart: yes, i'll say. what do you make of it? that is a real sudden drop, if they're right what do you make of it? >> so i mean, mike wilson tends to be more bearish than the average bear typically but he might be right here. with regards to the market, i do agree that last week's rally will be short-lived. i think it was just a bear market bounce, and typically when you have a bear market bounce, you know, you go from the bottom up about 15%

. >> i preeappreciate you being w us that's mark santoli, our senior market commentator mike wilson of morgan stanley, as bad as the market feels to everybody and as much as it's already, you know, corrected from its highs, he says 3,400 is where you're going that's where it's headed before a more tradeable low because there's not enough slowing -- the slowdown has not been fully priced in, and the risk to earnings that exists is that right? >> i think that is right, and that number would take us almost to 30% down from the highs in january. if we're not going into a recession, usually you see a correction somewhere between 20 and 30 in the s&p, so that would feel right we don't quite get to 30, but here's the problem between now and the end of july, we don't know if we're in a recession or not, so the market is going to have to continue to try to find that, and we're waiting for obviously a big fed meeting this week. let's not forget we're also going to get the summary of economic projections, and we're going to get a dot plot, and i think we're going to get a lot of information out o

. >> exactly we need every strategist to embrace mike wilson. like, you know -- >> 3,400 >> yes mr. wilson mr. wilson and by the way, there are people who say, listen, we don't go to 3,900 today, every single price target that i see is so far away from where a stock is, its incredible i'm doing work today what happens if bed bath can't pay its leases well, who gets hurt? i mean, i haven't done that kind of work since the great recession. it's -- this is just a not great time. >> right. >> not great time. >> right as for -- you're right about some leftover positivity, wells is defending rh, cowan's target remain 3s 00 their operating margin guidance, jim, 21.5, at the midpoint, they were in the mid-20s, 24. >> this is a tremendous place to shop all the way back, big expansion plans for this year. i'd like to know whether they feel like they have to pull some back friedman is an amazing operate tomorrow people say sell williams sonoma. they're very different i think that gary called it first. i think retail's terrible. i look at something like ckohl's and say wasn't there supposed to

. >> a lot of desks over the weekend looking at technical levels mike wilson says more risk of 3400 before a tradeable low is in jonathan krynski, 3400, risk of a june swoon up significantly. david kostin looks at a bunch of cases says the bear case would be 3150 next year. >> that was an incredibly thoughtful piece coston lays out a couple scenarios, but on a day like today, you can't help but think it's going to be the worst scenario he doesn't necessarily put it that that will happen, but it does define a method where the p.e. is much lower than here, and it's the p. and the e. that's going to go down. >> wilson has been the best, and he stuck with it >> he stuck with it, and he's been right good during these bear market rallies. >> over a year now, saying sell the vaccine, sell peak fed >> what's great is they were, really unlike 20008, particularly in 2000, there are people who got it right and they positioned people. we got a lot of people out jpmorgan did a piece that was -- >> certainly people listen to them >> they didn't cause the problem this time. now, my friend michael, he did

maria: all right let me just point out that mike wilson is the chief strategist at morgan stanley this morning coming out with a report saying stocks have another 15-20% down to go. they are looking forward to climbs at morgan. thanks,, gentl g gen gen "varn " u e yoe yow.sht now'll'l take iake iwa stall: ralight, good,,ni mng, a andoong, everyon fit d baconack onon the market w weekendke lasteeas the t wheorst in al st two t years, yeaow are we doing t? i'll cllal ct a bounc i have no idea where this things going. the dow industrials should be up about 350 to 400 points at the open, s&p up about 50, nasdaq up about 160 points. the big deal for investors now is the fed. will it back off at all from its tightening? jay powell testifies to congress tomorrow but we've got a bounce for the market, early this tu

maria: all right let me just point out that mike wilson is the chief strategist at morgan stanley this morning coming out with a report saying stocks have another 15-20% down to go. they are looking forward to climbs at morgan. thanks,, gentl g gen gen "varn " u e yoe yow.sht now'll'l take iake iwa stall: ralight, good,,ni mng, a andoong, everyon fit d baconack onon the market w weekendke lasteeas the t wheorst in al st two t years, yeaow are we doing t? i'll cllal ct a bounc i have no idea where this things going. the dow industrials should be up about 350 to 400 points at the open, s&p up about 50, nasdaq up about 160 points. the big deal for investors now is the fed. will it back off at all from its tightening? jay powell testifies to congress tomorrow but we've got a bounce for the market, early this tuesday morning. crypto investors, maybe breathing a sigh of relief. bitcoin dropped below 18,000 bucks on saturday and ethererum dropped below a thousand. a bounce to 21,000 is what we've got right now, and we've got a bounce for ethererum as well back above $1,000. question? how many

so edith wilson and helen here in taft and florence harding all very powerful first ladies. so grace benefited from that. there is a blowback though, isn't there on this accountability and mike dean elected for the first ladies who come after a first lady who's perceived his powerful whether they want to cut back or not. i think they feel the pressure from the public to do that. we have a question here. yes, i've heard edith wilson referred to as our first female president, and i'm also surprised in this discussion that you haven't mentioned eleanor roosevelt, but that's not my question. my question is political writers and pundits are very free about ranking our best president in our worst presidents, and i wonder if you would go so far as to maybe talk about who are our good first. ladies and who were our worst and i know a lot of people get that. they're not elected. they're thrust into the position and some people rise to the occasion and some don't but i just wonder if you would be involved in ranking or judge that this audience likes trouble. it's a project to work on