tory mps the things that would be concerning to tory mp5 is people who queue up for hours _ to tory mp5 is people who queue up for hours to— to tory mp5 is people who queue up for hours to be able to stand and watch _ for hours to be able to stand and watch the — for hours to be able to stand and watch the royal family enter st. paul's_ watch the royal family enter st. paul's cathedral, you would quite often _ paul's cathedral, you would quite often think they might be traditional tory voters will set up and i_ traditional tory voters will set up and i don't — traditional tory voters will set up and i don't think the timing is particularly great when you have a key weekend when boris johnson particularly great when you have a key weekend when borisjohnson is hoping _ key weekend when borisjohnson is hoping that tory mps next week don't challenge _ hoping that tory mps next week don't challenge him for leadership and you have allies _ challenge him for leadership and you have allies of him arguing about his tikahitity— have allies of him arguing about his likability and sayin

if dozens of tory 's mps vote against him?— if dozens of tory 's mps vote auainst him? �*, w , , , if dozens of tory 's mps vote auainsthim? �*, ,, , _ against him? let's take this step by ste -. against him? let's take this step by ste. let's against him? let's take this step by step- let's find _ against him? let's take this step by step. let's find out _ against him? let's take this step by step. let's find out what _ step. let's find out what happens now _ step. let's find out what happens now it— step. let's find out what happens now if he — step. let's find out what happens now. if he doesn't have the majority of conservative mps or a substantial minority. _ of conservative mps or a substantial minority, don't have confidence in him, _ minority, don't have confidence in him. you — minority, don't have confidence in him, you know that former tory prime ministers _ him, you know that former tory prime ministers resigned in the face of that _ ministers resigned in the face of that let's — ministers resigned in the face of that. let's see what happens. lik

and obviously tory mps are cuite this. and obviously tory mps are quite good _ this. and obviously tory mps are quite good getting _ this. and obviously tory mps are quite good getting rid _ this. and obviously tory mps are quite good getting rid of- this. and obviously tory mps are quite good getting rid of leaders| quite good getting rid of leaders they don't like. theresa may was 'ust they don't like. theresa may was just able — they don't like. theresa may was just able to cling on, she felt like she had _ just able to cling on, she felt like she had a — just able to cling on, she felt like she had a duty to get on with brexit and deliver— she had a duty to get on with brexit and deliver it but after david cameron— and deliver it but after david cameron decided he was not that person— cameron decided he was not that person to — cameron decided he was not that person to go forward was to we all think. _ person to go forward was to we all think. i_ person to go forward was to we all think, i imagine, if he had tried to cling _ think, i imagine, if he had

— go ahead by the lib dems, it might unify the tories? the lib dems have no ower unify the tories? the lib dems have no power to — unify the tories? the lib dems have no power to call— unify the tories? the lib dems have no power to call a _ unify the tories? the lib dems have no power to call a motion _ unify the tories? the lib dems have no power to call a motion of- unify the tories? the lib dems have no power to call a motion of no - no power to call a motion of no confidence, it is the government order leader of the opposition who could do that. but we have to focus on getting the prime minister out of number ten, on getting the prime minister out of numberten, he has on getting the prime minister out of number ten, he has breached the trust put in him by the electorate in 2019, he does not have the support of his backbench colleagues. they cabinet don't seem to be doing anything other than staying very loyal, regardless about what people think about the personal ambitions? the payroll vote is keeping him in office for now, and i would concentrate on for now. this prime mi

mps were to force _ bout for a year unless tory mps were to force a _ bout for a year unless tory mps were to force a change to the rules that govern— to force a change to the rules that govern their tory leadership contest which _ govern their tory leadership contest which could take some time, but it doesn't _ which could take some time, but it doesn't mean any political fallout is over. _ doesn't mean any political fallout is over. by— doesn't mean any political fallout is over, by any stretch. months of headaches — is over, by any stretch. months of headaches for boris johnson over partygate, the cost of living, have been _ partygate, the cost of living, have been out — partygate, the cost of living, have been put to the test in two elections in very different parts of the country, in wakefield in the north— the country, in wakefield in the north of— the country, in wakefield in the north of england and in rural tiverton— north of england and in rural tiverton in devon, both exactly the kind of— tiverton in devon, both exactly the kind of seats the tories need to h

. -- tory privatisation.— lancet investigation. -- tory privatisation. lancet investigation. -- tory rivatisation. , .,~ ,, privatisation. the shake-up of nhs encland in privatisation. the shake-up of nhs england in 2012 — privatisation. the shake-up of nhs england in 2012 under _ privatisation. the shake-up of nhs england in 2012 under andrew - privatisation. the shake-up of nhs i england in 2012 under andrew lansley as the health secretary at the time, and how this. local health bodies to tender out contracts for certain services. the report here from the lancet, saying that billions of pounds of tax—payers cash was handed to private companies, and saying this has been associated with a drop of care quality and higher rates of treatable mortality. it certainly the case that outsourcing can be more expensive and potentially lead to lower quality... but we need to remember, it's not the consumer in charge, it's the government entity thatis charge, it's the government entity that is awarding the contract. so we really need to explore whether the state

tory mps are in support— people coming over. tory mps are in support of— people coming over. tory mps are in support of this. but there are campaigners, people on the ground, opposition— campaigners, people on the ground, opposition parties who have real concerns— opposition parties who have real concerns about the human rights aspects — concerns about the human rights aspects of — concerns about the human rights aspects of this and there were always— aspects of this and there were always going to be legal challenges, ithink— always going to be legal challenges, i think that would have been packed in with— i think that would have been packed in with the _ i think that would have been packed in with the government when they carried _ in with the government when they carried this — in with the government when they carried this out. you know, there is a really— carried this out. you know, there is a really strong feeling about this, whichever— a really strong feeling about this, whichever side you are on, and i think— whichever side you are on, and i think

i the tory who could reach voters that other tories couldn't reach?- other tories couldn't reach? i think he is someone _ other tories couldn't reach? i think he is someone that _ other tories couldn't reach? i think he is someone that has _ other tories couldn't reach? i think he is someone that has got - other tories couldn't reach? i think he is someone that has got those l other tories couldn't reach? i think. he is someone that has got those big calls right. because of his force of nature and the way he approaches those kind of challenges, the last thing we need is to go back to people talking amongst themselves and leadership candidates, and, on tackling inflation and the cost of living, when you start talking down the economy you get pressure from the economy you get pressure from the unions and due to return to the 70s and 80s which i can just about remember. the spiralling situation. just looking at the evidence in front of you, at tiverton, there hasn't been another party voted for in 99 years there, it is the third biggest swing in any by—election. does that ring alar

itjust shows how people the tory party is. but don't forget, _ people the tory party is. but don't forget, they did win elections after that, three elections after 2014 when _ that, three elections after 2014 when all— that, three elections after 2014 when all of that was happening, so it is not— when all of that was happening, so it is not all— when all of that was happening, so it is not all over, but there is certainly— it is not all over, but there is certainly a _ it is not all over, but there is certainly a bit of panic in the tory ranks~ _ certainly a bit of panic in the tory ranks. ~ ~ ., ,., , ranks. when he think about the swing to the lib deadness _ ranks. when he think about the swing to the lib deadness in _ ranks. when he think about the swing to the lib deadness in tiverton, - ranks. when he think about the swing to the lib deadness in tiverton, it - to the lib deadness in tiverton, it is notjust this, there are a lot of tory mps sitting on some pretty healthy majorities in other areas of the country who might be pretty concerned as well. i think it

ross: we also got a resignation from the tory mp john penrose. he has resigned as the governments anticorruption champion. he's been in that post since 2016, but no more. >> it is a serious set of criticisms about ldership and one of the key principles underlying all the way through the ministerial code is leadership, that's one of the seven noted principles of public life and he did not address that at all. you can't reach any other conclusion if you read the report. i think he has breached that fundamental principle and it is normally a resignation issue, certainly for him and for me. i think he has done some amazing things which i personally am very grateful for, but none of the good things he has done necessarily justify breaking the ministerial code, which he himself will say is one of the underpinnings of all good government and integrity of government in this country. ross: sir charles walker has told us about thi 1920 two committee meeting which boris johnson attended and made his case as charles walker has told channel for he did get hec

vote tory, and i think he — in a way, i do vote tory, and i think he is— in a way, i do vote tory, and i think he is the best person for the 'ob. think he is the best person for the joh i_ think he is the best person for the job. i cannot see anybody else who has got _ job. i cannot see anybody else who has got the — job. i cannot see anybody else who has got the nerve and whatever else to do— has got the nerve and whatever else to do the _ has got the nerve and whatever else to do the job. this has got the nerve and whatever else to do the job-— to do the job. this has been a conservative _ to do the job. this has been a conservative seat _ to do the job. this has been a conservative seat for - to do the job. this has been a | conservative seat for decades, to do the job. this has been a - conservative seat for decades, but opposition parties are hoping to change that in the by—election later this month. some voters here feel the pressure is on for the prime minister to go. i the pressure is on for the prime minister to go.— the pressure is on for the prime minister to go. i

— is in the telegraph and they said the tories will try to seek to sweep this under— the tories will try to seek to sweep this under the carpet and of course, the tories _ this under the carpet and of course, the tories want to move on with us and not _ the tories want to move on with us and not let— the tories want to move on with us and not let a — the tories want to move on with us and not let a drag on and so, whether— and not let a drag on and so, whether it _ and not let a drag on and so, whether it will, it could do and yeah. — whether it will, it could do and yeah. it's _ whether it will, it could do and yeah, it's not good for boris johnson _ yeah, it's not good for boris johnson and the conservatives right now they— johnson and the conservatives right now they have a lot of things on their— now they have a lot of things on their plate with the cost of living and much — their plate with the cost of living and much more.— their plate with the cost of living and much more.- yet, - their plate with the cost of living and much more.- yet, the their plate with the

the thing is, a few weeks ago, when members of the tory— is, a few weeks ago, when members of the tory party — is, a few weeks ago, when members of the tory party voted in a confidence vote, 148 _ the tory party voted in a confidence vote, 148 decided that they wanted to part _ vote, 148 decided that they wanted to part ways with boris johnson. vote, 148 decided that they wanted to part ways with borisjohnson. but more _ to part ways with borisjohnson. but more wanted him to stay. three weeks a-o, more wanted him to stay. three weeks ago. im _ more wanted him to stay. three weeks ago. im sure _ more wanted him to stay. three weeks ago, i'm sure most of them would not have expected them to win either of these _ have expected them to win either of these by—elections. i could not see where this— these by—elections. i could not see where this new ground is going to come _ where this new ground is going to come from — where this new ground is going to come from despite the fact the chairman— come from despite the fact the chairman has resigned today. there is some _ chairman has

mps _ has mentioned, there are plenty of tory mps worried about the direction of policy— tory mps worried about the direction of policy that the conservative party— of policy that the conservative party and the government has taken at the _ party and the government has taken at the moment, so it is not impossible they will be issue in the next six _ impossible they will be issue in the next six months, a year, which tory mps decide. — next six months, a year, which tory mps decide, actually, you know what, we don't _ mps decide, actually, you know what, we don't back boris, we don't have confidence — we don't back boris, we don't have confidence in his leadership, and now we _ confidence in his leadership, and now we are — confidence in his leadership, and now we are going to use this as an opportunity— now we are going to use this as an opportunity to vote on the government policy, in an attempt to try and _ government policy, in an attempt to try and bring him down sooner. i would _ try and bring him down sooner. i would not — try and bring him down sooner. i would not be su

voters will set up and i_ traditional tory voters will set up and i don't — traditional tory voters will set up and i don't think the timing is particularly great when you have a key weekend when boris johnson particularly great when you have a key weekend when borisjohnson is hoping _ key weekend when borisjohnson is hoping that tory mps next week don't challenge _ hoping that tory mps next week don't challenge him for leadership and you have allies _ challenge him for leadership and you have allies of him arguing about his likabilitv_ have allies of him arguing about his likability and saying if we get rid

that is up to the tory party. if you are being honest, wouldn't it be better if it was borisjohnson, wouldn't it be better if it was boris johnson, whether wouldn't it be better if it was borisjohnson, whether it is by a small margin or a large margin that he wins because then you can keep you on about all the things you said. . , , you on about all the things you said. ., , , ., you on about all the things you said. ., ,, ., . ~ i, said. perhaps tongue in cheek you could say we _ said. perhaps tongue in cheek you could say we are _ said. perhaps tongue in cheek you could say we are all _ said. perhaps tongue in cheek you could say we are all walking - said. perhaps tongue in cheek you | could say we are all walking around without back boris badges. if this was about what is the best interests the labour party you'd want to keep borisjohnson. but i think integrity and honesty matters in public life and honesty matters in public life and it is in the country's interest that boris johnson and it is in the country's

yes, i think holding many tory mps back from _ yes, i think holding many tory mps back from putting out their letters no—confidence and discussing this more _ no—confidence and discussing this more clearly, they don't know exactly — more clearly, they don't know exactly whether boris has that magical— exactly whether boris has that magical sparkle to win elections that he — magical sparkle to win elections that he is known for her. i think it is going _ that he is known for her. i think it is going to — that he is known for her. i think it is going to take a little longer to see whether that mood is in the country— see whether that mood is in the country at — see whether that mood is in the country at large or whether, as i say. _ country at large or whether, as i say. we — country at large or whether, as i say. we are _ country at large or whether, as i say, we are just in west bubble and everybody— say, we are just in west bubble and everybody else out there is keen on him and _ everybody else out there is keen on him and wanting to be pm. yes, and it does feel—

as for the swing — in wakefield from tory to labour it was 12.7%, and in tiverton, from tory to lib dem it was a whopping 29.9%. what would all this mean if the result in wakefield were replicated in a general election, assuming no change in other parties�* support? well, it would result in labour being one seat short of an overall majority. and if we took tiverton as a guide, the lib dems would do vastly better. 0ur deputy political editor vicki young joins us now. baring all of that in mind, where does this now leaves borisjohnson? those graphs you have been showing are what make conservative mps extremely nervous. the idea that thousands of people can switch their vote and get behind the candidate best placed to beat the tory. what the mps will be weighing up is why is it happening. is itjust mid—term blues or is this about boris johnson, his leadership and character? he has been asked that lots of times today. he will not really engage with it, he says he has lots of work to do, he will carry on and is not going to resign. is he safe? the rules at the moment mean that for one ye

the swing in wakefield from tory to labour was 12.7%, and in tiverton, from tory to lib dem was a whopping 29.9%. what would all this mean if the result in wakefield were replicated in a general election, assuming no change in other pa rties' support? well, it would result in labour being one seat short of an overall majority. and if we took tiverton as a guide, the lib dems would do vastly better. so, what do these two results mean for the tory party and for borisjohnson's future? our political correspondent nick eardley has this analysis. it's time to show boris the door! celebrating a record—breaking win, the result in tiverton and honiton was the biggest majority overturned at a by—election ever. but three times in just over a year, ed davey�*s party have overcome massive tory majorities in what were conservative heartlands. there was chesham and amersham, which had always been conservative blue. then north shropshire, and another not—so—subtle photo op, and the lib dems overcame a conservative majority of 23,000. borisjohnson used to be seen as a political winner, the sort o

this is a problem with the tory party~ — johnson. this is a problem with the tory party. regardless, labourwill be ready— tory party. regardless, labourwill be readyin— tory party. regardless, labourwill be ready to beat the tory party, whoever — be ready to beat the tory party, whoever is _ be ready to beat the tory party, whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda, whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda. it _ whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda. it is _ whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda, it is on _ whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda, it is on to _ whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda, it is on to germany - whoever is at the head of it. he rwanda, it is on to germany and spain for borisjohnson full stop he will be hoping his time on the world stage will strengthen his position back home. the foreign secretary liz truss says she has absolute confience in borisjohnson following the by—election losses. she's been speaking to out deputy africa editor anne soy at the commonwealth heads of government meeting in the rwandan capital kiga

for now, it is tory mps who — some good things. for now, it is tory mps who will— some good things. for now, it is tory mps who will decide - some good things. for now, it is| tory mps who will decide whether some good things. for now, it is i tory mps who will decide whether or not it's time to change the record. alex forsyth, bbc news, staffordshire. stay with me here in downing street. the result is now an hour away. it's coming up to eight o'clock. we'll hear from you above in a minute. —— yougov. thousands of british holiday—makers are still struggling to get home from half—term breaks after the cancellation of hundreds of flights over the weekend. the travel misery has continued with more flight cancellations today from easyjet, wizz air and ba. 0ur correspondent tim muffett has more. it had been a great holiday. jackie and her children were do to fly back on saturday, just before they were due to leave. a text message told them their flight was cancelled. ila them their flight was cancelled. iii? representative at the airport. two spanish lazy �*s that were taking a

and a few tory mps said let's ut davies. and a few tory mps said let's put this _ davies. and a few tory mps said let's put this behind _ davies. and a few tory mps said let's put this behind us - davies. and a few tory mps said let's put this behind us and i davies. and a few tory mps said | let's put this behind us and come together. it feels much harder to do than that and that is why there is a growing sense it is getting hard for borisjohnson to lead the party into the next election. haifa boris johnson to lead the party into the next election.— the next election. how do they try and brina the next election. how do they try and bring him _ the next election. how do they try and bring him down _ the next election. how do they try and bring him down and _ the next election. how do they try and bring him down and what i the next election. how do they try and bring him down and what is i the next election. how do they try i and bring him down and what is boris johnson doing to try and stop that? is he fearing jobs and money to constituencies with levelling up? there has

— johnson, it's a problem with the tory party. _ johnson, it's a problem with the tory party. regardless of labour will be _ tory party. regardless of labour will be ready to beat the tory party whoever _ will be ready to beat the tory party whoever is — will be ready to beat the tory party whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda it's _ whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda it's on _ whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda it's on to _ whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda it's on to germany - whoever is at the head of it. in rwanda it's on to germany and spain for borisjohnson. he will be hoping his time on the world stage will strengthen his position at home. tony bonsignore, bbc news. the third day of strike action this week on the railways is taking place. thousands of rmt union members at network rail and 13 train operating companies have walked out in a dispute aboutjobs, pay, and conditions. helena wilkinson is in windsor for us now. for those passengers arriving here from waterloo station there are trains every 15 minutes, good news for people arrivin

but if the tory party in osition actually... but if the tory party in position to _ actually... but if the tory party in position to start _ actually... but if the tory party in position to start shooting - position to start shooting someone on that side of the political spectrum?— on that side of the political sectrum? , ., ., , , , spectrum? the short answer is i “ust don't know spectrum? the short answer is i “ust don-t know but �* spectrum? the short answer is i “ust don't know but one i spectrum? the short answer is i “ust don't know but one of i spectrum? the short answer is i “ust don't know but one of most �* don't know but one of most interesting things i heard today talking to lots of conservative mps is that _ talking to lots of conservative mps is that the — talking to lots of conservative mps is that the vision is johnson wins try is that the vision is johnson wins by a _ is that the vision is johnson wins by a small— is that the vision is johnson wins by a small margin, then civil war breaks— by a small margin, then civil war breaks out— by

where does this leave the scottish tories tonight?— tories tonight? deep trouble and divided in court _ tories tonight? deep trouble and divided in court to _ tories tonight? deep trouble and divided in court to consider - tories tonight? deep trouble and divided in court to consider the i divided in court to consider the party— divided in court to consider the party is — divided in court to consider the party is divided as a whole but the problem _ party is divided as a whole but the problem in scotland is given one and leader of— problem in scotland is given one and leader of the scottish conservative party— leader of the scottish conservative party douglas rossi voted against a prime _ party douglas rossi voted against a prime minister along with three other— prime minister along with three other of— prime minister along with three other of his colleagues that are four of— other of his colleagues that are four of the six voting is mps against _ four of the six voting is mps against the prime minister and to including — against the p

pact _ brexit seats, that the tories had a pact it's — brexit seats, that the tories had a pact. it's quite common for the conservative party to have packs of peopie _ conservative party to have packs of peopie do — conservative party to have packs of people do not vote for them. so it doesn't _ people do not vote for them. so it doesn't really wash, and this is a bit desperate. i don't think it will chime with — bit desperate. i don't think it will chime with the voters because they seem _ chime with the voters because they seem to _ chime with the voters because they seem to have made their decision. they— seem to have made their decision. they don't— seem to have made their decision. they don't really need a pact or imaginary— they don't really need a pact or imaginary pact to tell them how to vote _ imaginary pact to tell them how to vote. ,., . imaginary pact to tell them how to vote. . ., ., ., vote. 0k, pact or not, we have time, ou need vote. 0k, pact or not, we have time, you need to — vote. 0k, pact or not, we have time, you need to move — vote. 0k, pact o

the news that the tory deputy chief whip has resigned amid alleged sexual misconduct after a drunken night in the cloud in london. in the telegraph also leads of the same story about another report that the education secretary has asked the treasury to give teachers pay raises of up to 9% to seize off strike action. a report on mounting pressure for sterling street figures drop to their worst levels on record. and the unmasking of the stepbrother of logan who killed his stepbrother of logan who killed his stepbrother and dumped his body and a river. innocent lost and house of evil. that is the front page of the metro reporting on the tragic killing of logan mwangi. and they have exclusive interviews with a past prime ministers for the 50th anniversary of the first pride as theresa may urges borisjohnson to ban trans conversion therapy. so, let's begin. you are going to kick us off if you could on the front page of the independent, they commit tens of billions to boost defence and looking at the discussions at the nato summit in madrid. we looking at the discussions at the nato summit

presumably, nick, for some of those mps — tory mps. presumably, nick, for some of those mps who _ tory mps. presumably, nick, for some of those mps who voted _ tory mps. presumably, nick, for some of those mps who voted against - tory mps. presumably, nick, for some of those mps who voted against the i of those mps who voted against the prime minister, who said they did not have confidence in him, this is about personality, not policies, which is where moments like pmqs are really interesting, you know, will he be... it is probably not the forum for this, but how will he demonstrate that he might be reaching out to those who are unhappy with his leadership? it is reall unhappy with his leadership? it 3 really interesting, because undoubtedly borisjohnson will get a hard time today from opposition parties, he will undoubtedly have some of his own back is behind him to make some noise when he comes into the chamber at midday, but it will be really keyed to watch out for whether there is any blue on blue attacks, whether any of those rebe

case for this policy— presenting the tory case for this policy by— presenting the tory case for this policy by showing just how dangerous it is for— policy by showing just how dangerous it is for people to come across the channel _ it is for people to come across the channel it— it is for people to come across the channel. it is a very perilous journey, _ channel. it is a very perilous journey, as— channel. it is a very perilous journey, as the daily mail suggests, it is journey, as the daily mail suggests, il is not— journey, as the daily mail suggests, it is not necessarily the humanitarian success that this situation has created. but one of the things— situation has created. but one of the things that seems disingenuous to me _ the things that seems disingenuous to me is _ the things that seems disingenuous to me is actually, when you read this rwanda policy, it doesn't only apply— this rwanda policy, it doesn't only apply to _ this rwanda policy, it doesn't only apply to people who come into this country— apply to people who come into this country by— apply to peo

and to reward people who su- horted tory party. and to reward people who supported him _ tory party. and to reward people who supported him this _ tory party. and to reward people who supported him this evening. - tory party. and to reward people who supported him this evening. there's l supported him this evening. there's been lots of — been lots of calls from downing street i'm sure a ofjobs, knighthood, so i think that's certainly the case. the feeling in the team is people who support the prime minister and support the government should be rewarded and those who waver their support should not be but of course we'll see how that goes down with mps. ii he not be but of course we'll see how that goes down with mps. if he wins how does he — that goes down with mps. if he wins how does he unite _ that goes down with mps. if he wins how does he unite his _ that goes down with mps. if he wins how does he unite his divided - that goes down with mps. if he wins | how does he unite his divided party? i think he wants to do that by fo

solid liberal democrat territory, swings between lib dem and tory. this seat has been tory. the suspicion will be is that it is a by—election, it's a protest vote. john hart has also said, come next general election the area will swim back to two conservatives.— area will swim back to two conservatives. ., ., ., . conservatives. we have a fantastic candidate in _ conservatives. we have a fantastic candidate in richard _ conservatives. we have a fantastic candidate in richard foord. - conservatives. we have a fantastic candidate in richard foord. we - conservatives. we have a fantastic. candidate in richard foord. we have a by—election operation speaking to people. helen morgan has been working incredibly hard in relation to ambulance waiting times which is an issue here as well. the mp for north shropshire. we have a new liberal democrat mp and i hope we demonstrate that once you have one, you don't want to lose him. that you don't want to lose him. at working, start working. you don't want to lose him. at - working, start working. absolutely. that is what — working,

what do tory voters think is what they ask. given the choice, would you prefer that borisjohnson is still prime minister in a year's time or per someone else? about 51% went for borisjohnson, 36% say they went for boris johnson, 36% say they prefer someone else to bpm.- prefer someone else to bpm. olivia, what do you — prefer someone else to bpm. olivia, what do you make _ prefer someone else to bpm. olivia, what do you make of _ prefer someone else to bpm. olivia, what do you make of that? - prefer someone else to bpm. olivia, what do you make of that? i - prefer someone else to bpm. olivia, what do you make of that? i was - what do you make of that? i was quite surprised at the figures were higher against borisjohnson. i higher against boris johnson. i think higher against borisjohnson. i think was most interesting about that story is a little bit further downward says that 33% would prefer keir starmer over borisjohnson, 28 keir starmer over boris johnson, 28 perfe keir starmer over borisjohnson, 28 perfe bar borisjohnson.

tory sources _ pull off a remarkable victory. tory sources are — pull off a remarkable victory. tory sources are saying they are expecting a difficult night, the lib dems— expecting a difficult night, the lib dems aren't declaring victoryjust yet saying — dems aren't declaring victoryjust yet saying it is very tight, but if the conservatives lose, it will be the conservatives lose, it will be the biggest ever majority to be lost at a by—election. it will be the third — at a by—election. it will be the third time _ at a by—election. it will be the third time they have lost a comfortable majority to the liberal democrats in this parliament. it would _ democrats in this parliament. it would meet many tory mps looking over their— would meet many tory mps looking over their shoulders, nervous about a forthcoming general election that may will_ a forthcoming general election that may will lead to some questioning the prime — may will lead to some questioning the prime minister's future too. boris _ the prime minister's future too. borisjohnson said to the prime ministe

the tory party is _ conservative party chairman? ti2 tory party is absolutely imploding. they know they are out of ideas and out of touch, and if they had any decency, they would get out of the way for the next labour government. what happened here in wakefield was people exercising theirjudgment on this conservative government, and of no confidence. but for me and the labour party, this is very important because for two years, we have been turning our party around, and we were able to show the voters in wakefield we are a confident and united party, and we are laser focused on the issues that affect working people in wakefield. and thatis working people in wakefield. and that is why they have put their faith in simon, and the labour party. faith in simon, and the labour pa . �* faith in simon, and the labour pa . , faith in simon, and the labour pa , ., ., faith in simon, and the labour pa , ., party. don't you yet have a problem? peole are party. don't you yet have a problem? people are voting _ party. don't you yet have a problem? people are voting no _ party. don't

his comments follow the tories�* defeat in two by—elections this week. speaking to the bbc from rwanda, where he's attending a commonwealth meeting, he said people were heartily sick of questions about his conduct and that a psychological transformation of his character would not happen. earlier, i spoke to lucy fisher, who's chief political commentator at times radio. she told me she thinks mrjohnson is trying to distance himself from the byelection results. in the immediate wake of these two rather disastrous by—election defeats, we had the prime minister try and link the discontent of tory voters or voters in those seats to the cost of living crisis. this weekend, he has moved the narrative on slightly, almost suggesting it's his mps, possibly the media, at part to blame with what he called the endless churn of allegations against him. he said that people were heartily sick of hearing about things he is alleged to have done wrong. well, many things that have upset his backbenchers aren't just allegations, of course they stem from the ethics rows tha

as you say, tory mps have started voting just in the corridor over there. there is a queue for them to go in. 359 are eligible to vote, he needs 180 to win. 0ne minister said to me that tory ministers are fed up of defending the indefensible, fed up ijy defending the indefensible, fed up by being tainted by borisjohnson, but if the prime minister wins this vote tonight he will hope that keeps him secure in number ten.— him secure in number ten. thanks very much- _ so what do voters make of today's developments and of borisjohnson's leadership? 0ur correspondent alex forsyth has been speaking to voters in newcastle—under—lyme, one of the so—called �*red wall�* constituencies — which, at the last election, borisjohnson succeeded in turning from labour to conservative. two and a half years ago, the conservatives were celebrating here after taking the seat from labour in a landslide election. but at this local garden centre, things don't seem quite as bright today. katie and her mother linda, who was once a conservative voter, have lost faith in b

i asked this tory mp if he thanht all working. i asked this tory mp if he thought all of _ working. i asked this tory mp if he thought all of this _ working. i asked this tory mp if he thought all of this was _ working. i asked this tory mp if he thought all of this was about - working. i asked this tory mp if he thought all of this was about the i thought all of this was about the turbulence within the conservative party and questions over the prime minister's future. i party and questions over the prime minister's future.— minister's future. i think people construct a _ minister's future. i think people construct a very _ minister's future. i think people construct a very compelling - minister's future. i think people | construct a very compelling case minister's future. i think people . construct a very compelling case to make that argument. i would like to say i hope it's not true. but make that argument. i would like to say i hope it's not true.— say i hope it's not true. but you think it might — say i hope it's not true. but you think it might be? _ say i hope it's not t

_ the reason are going against the tories in — the reason are going against the tories in wakefield. and that gives the lie that jacob rees—mogg constantly saying nobody cares about partygate. _ constantly saying nobody cares about partygate, people really do. i do think— partygate, people really do. i do think however, borisjohnson being booed _ think however, borisjohnson being booed at— think however, borisjohnson being booed at the service on friday was unfortunate. i think this is the time _ unfortunate. i think this is the time actually not to bring politics into it _ time actually not to bring politics into it he — time actually not to bring politics into it. he is our national leader, the head — into it. he is our national leader, the head of— into it. he is our national leader, the head of government, and i think you should — the head of government, and i think you should have been treated with a bit more _ you should have been treated with a bit more respect. and i'm the first person to — bit more respect. and i'm the first person to give him a hard time in

and i'm afraid of those tory mps. and i'm afraid of those tory mps who— mps. and i'm afraid of those tory mps who backed the prime minister, this lying. _ mps who backed the prime minister, this lying, lawbreaking prime minister, they are tone deaf to what the vast _ minister, they are tone deaf to what the vast majority of the british public— the vast majority of the british public want. they want to see this prime _ public want. they want to see this prime minister gone. sir public want. they want to see this prime minister gone.— public want. they want to see this prime minister gone. sir ed davey, leader of the _ prime minister gone. sir ed davey, leader of the liberal _ prime minister gone. sir ed davey, leader of the liberal democrats, i leader of the liberal democrats, thank you forjoining us on breakfast. let's talk to somebody who knows borisjohnson very well, who knows borisjohnson very well, who can give us a sense of how the prime minister might be feeling inside there this morning. his former communications director will waldenjoins us. good m

the headline underneath, tory mps by—election warning to johnson. tory mps by-election warning to johnson. ~ . , ., ~ ., johnson. what is the one? we have not two johnson. what is the one? we have got two by-elections _ johnson. what is the one? we have got two by-elections coming - johnson. what is the one? we have got two by-elections coming up - johnson. what is the one? we have| got two by-elections coming up this got two by—elections coming up this week, _ got two by—elections coming up this week, wakefield north and tiverton, both very— week, wakefield north and tiverton, both very different constituency. wakefield redwall, and down in shropshire, a more traditional conservative suit. both looking tricky — conservative suit. both looking tricky. wakefield looks like it could — tricky. wakefield looks like it could he _ tricky. wakefield looks like it could be a tough night for the conservatives, and even north shropshire, where they have a big majority, — shropshire, where they have a big majority, the lib dems are doing what _ maj

the snp leader pointed out that four in ten tory mps now- out that four in ten tory mps now don't back mrjohnson and virtually every mp in scotland wants him gone. the lame duck prime minister presiding _ the lame duck prime minister presiding over— the lame duck prime minister presiding over a _ the lame duck prime minister presiding over a divided - the lame duck prime minister| presiding over a divided party. the lame duck prime minister. presiding over a divided party. in the lame duck prime minister- presiding over a divided party. in a disunited _ presiding over a divided party. in a disunited kingdom. _ presiding over a divided party. in a disunited kingdom. so— presiding over a divided party. in a disunited kingdom. so how- presiding over a divided party. in a disunited kingdom. so how does. presiding over a divided party. in a i disunited kingdom. so how does the prime _ disunited kingdom. so how does the prime minister— disunited kingdom. so how does the prime minister expect— disunited kingdom. so how does the prime minister expect to _ disunited kingdom. so how does

is an interesting possible proposal, tory mps plotting vote strikes. what could they be and how they could work and how disruptive they could be as borisjohnson tries to draw a line under the affair and move on with business as usual. late line under the affair and move on with business as usual.— line under the affair and move on with business as usual. we saw how the vote of — with business as usual. we saw how the vote of no-confidence _ with business as usual. we saw how the vote of no-confidence in - with business as usual. we saw howl the vote of no-confidence in theresa the vote of no—confidence in theresa may of _ the vote of no—confidence in theresa may of course, six months so after which _ may of course, six months so after which she — may of course, six months so after which she was forced to resign as prime _ which she was forced to resign as prime minister and with this article really— prime minister and with this article really implies is that there's now a bit more _ really implies is that there's now a bit more coordination

and so no wonder tory mps are saying that is totally— wonder tory mps are saying that is totally delusional. the wonder tory mps are saying that is totally delusional.— totally delusional. the telegraph with the ten _ totally delusional. the telegraph with the top story _ totally delusional. the telegraph with the top story of _ totally delusional. the telegraph with the top story of prime - totally delusional. the telegraph i with the top story of prime minister opposes —— imposes steel terrace to win back red wall so suggesting that when it comes to the nuts and bolts of governing, he is looking slightly but not so far have a bit closer in terms of the timescale and looking at what he needs do. but as this story suggests, it could land him in difficulties. , ., , ., , difficulties. yes, well as nigel was 'ust sa in: difficulties. yes, well as nigel was just saying when _ difficulties. yes, well as nigel was just saying when you _ difficulties. yes, well as nigel was just saying when you asked - difficulties. yes, well as nigel was just saying when you asked about| just saying when y

some tory mps complain _ britain in that way. some tory mps complain about _ britain in that way. some tory mps complain about a - britain in that way. some tory mps complain about a lack- britain in that way. some tory mps complain about a lack of| mps complain about a lack of direction from u—turns free school meals to an embarrassing climbdown after mrjohnson tried to change parliamentary rules on standards to protect one of his friends. three, two, one! that led to the loss of an ultra safe conservative seat. but it's the lawbreaking parties in downing street which have done the most damage. a police investigation, a fine for the prime minister and another enquiry looming into whether he lied to parliament. polls suggest the scandal has dented his popularity. some even booed his arrival at st paul's cathedral forjubilee celebrations. he paul's cathedral forjubilee celebrations.— paul's cathedral forjubilee celebrations. ., , ., ., celebrations. he does have real volitical celebrations. he does have real political abilities _ celebrations. he does have real political abilit

tory mps are in support— people coming over. tory mps are in surmort of— people coming over. tory mps are in support of this. but there are campaigners, people on the ground, oppositi°“_ campaigners, people on the ground, opposition parties who have real concerns— opposition parties who have real concerns about the human rights aspects — concerns about the human rights aspects of — concerns about the human rights aspects of this and there were always— aspects of this and there were always going to be legal challenges, ithink— always going to be legal challenges, i think that would have been packed in with— i think that would have been packed in with the _ i think that would have been packed in with the government when they carried _ in with the government when they carried this — in with the government when they carried this out. you know, there is a really— carried this out. you know, there is a really strong feeling about this, whichever— a really strong feeling about this, whichever side you are on, and i think— whichever side you are on, and i think

. -- tory privatisation.— lancet investigation. -- tory privatisation. lancet investigation. -- tory rivatisation. , .,~ ,, privatisation. the shake-up of nhs encland in privatisation. the shake-up of nhs england in 2012 — privatisation. the shake-up of nhs england in 2012 under _ privatisation. the shake-up of nhs england in 2012 under andrew - privatisation. the shake-up of nhs i england in 2012 under andrew lansley as the health secretary at the time, and how this.

what they are finding not just tory voters

it sits in a quiet corner of devon, usually considered safe tory turf. now, though, there's a lot of political noise here. 0pposition parties are trying to overturn the conservative vote. at this farming business, they're trying to decide which way to go. with rising costs and a labour squeeze, they are disillusioned. it's notjust the conservatives i think people are fed up with, i don't think there's anyone in westminster, really, that represents anyone on the ground. i mean, you know, labour and the lib dems have had a golden opportunity now, they seem to be lacking policy, everyone seems to be a career politician now, there seems to be a lack of people from industry. so, perhaps, a political hill to climb in this rural seat. the lib dems are keen to be seen as the main challengers to the tories here, despite labour coming second last time round. in the market town of tiverton, annie, who runs a lifestyle shop, has been listening. i just want to vote tactically to ensure that the tories do not get in again at the moment. so i will vote lib dems. boris

i this is a problem i with the tory party. regardless, labour will be ready to beat the tory party, _ whoever is at the head of it. after rwanda, it is on to germany and spain for borisjohnson. he will be hoping his time on the world stage will strengthen his position back home. despite the by—election losses, the foreign secretary, liz truss, has given her strong support to boris johnson. she's been speaking to our deputy africa editor, anne soy, at the commonwealth heads of government meeting, in the rwandan capital, kigali. i have absolute confidence in the prime minister. he is doing a fantasticjob. he has led on delivering on brexit, helping britain recoverfrom covid, we were the first country to fully develop the vaccine and get it rolled out and now he is doing a brilliantjob of supporting ukraine in the appalling war against russia. and the conservatives have just lost two important by—elections. should he be considering his position? incumbent governments do tend to lose by—elections. that's not a predictor of t

and at the pols, tories are facing a lot of pressure. it looks like they 54 votes are in. francine: i would follow kitty donaldson from our politics theme on twitter, she said the prime minister is expecting this, but is quite confident he can get through it. francine: into tom: into what is happening in europe this week. the european central bank set to join the bandwagon of the monetary policy tightening. that is getting rate traders excited, they are coming around to a plot line that involves more than the standard 25 basis point move from one up the next five meetings. there is a move in italian btp's, down around 10 points on the italian two year. let's bring back in the ceo of hassium asset management, talk to us about the ecb, how they are handling the rate hike prospects and potential deliverability's? yogesh: markets in europe have been less volatile because the ecb is taking a more gradual approach to dealing with inflation. if you look at rate hike expectations in europe, we are talking about 12 basis point hikes of 10 basis points, that -- so you will see rates