i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg surveillance. psst. girl. you can do better. ok. wow. i'm right here. and you can do better, too. at least with your big name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile, you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill, over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. wow. i can do better. yes, you can. i can do better, too. break free from the big three and switch to xfinity mobile. >> live from the nation's capital, good morning. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. together with kailey leinz back in your city, and in this market, we have lots to talk about. >> we always have a lot to talk about these days, and even with all of that, a fear of recession, first and foremost, in addition to turmoil, we have three days of gains on the s&p 500. those gains are continuing in the session this moring. we are up eight points on the s&p futures, or .2%. the same for the nasdaq 100. we are getting

i am jonathan ferro together with kailey leinz. futures unchanged. this market will make your head spin. tom: we are focused on the prime minister of the u.k., but the market is front and center. the acceleration, the convexity of week -- weak euro. jonathan: 102.24 and not far off from the 104 handle. the euro remains unviable this summer. that is some strong stuff. tom: a look at where we are now and what is focus -- what is important is we focus on 10 downing street. it is about the markets. greg said the markets are heavy institutions. jonathan: i do not believe you ever had marmite. you cannot bring that up. tom: this is important. this goes to inflation, jonathan ferro's family living, what boris johnson is living, it is different over there than here. marmite is a savory spread made out of beer -- i don't get it. but tesco is taking it off its shelf. tesco is fighting back against reasonable price increases. jonathan: we can talk about that later. prices are up, growth is off the rails. we are expecting the uk2 slope with no growth next year.

, i am jonathan ferro. where you want to begin? >> across to fanta, to the united kingdom, at a very lonely over 10 downing street. >> we are supplanting joy in july, out the window waiting for the prime minister. maybe were going to see him in 30 minutes, but we don't know the theme, we don't know what he will say. uncertainties for the a kingdom, and i might point out, as an aside, for mr. joe and see in grain, it is substantial. >> he is been a solid partner that he would confirm that. on the prime minister's exit, he is going to walk down the road. what we don't know is how long that road actually is, because they're up reports in the last 30 minutes that perhaps, he will try to stay on as a caretaker p.m., and don't you dare ask me to define what that means for this country in the u.k.. >> the original process bounces back, but it is different than america. how does labor and mr. sturmer react at this moment? >> the sequence of events will be as follows. the prime minister will engineer and exit. it is

i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. opec's first outlook for 2023 has been released and suggests no relief for the global squeeze. members already are falling far behind the volumes needed right now. in the u.k., retailers reported another drop in sales. record high inflation is keeping consumers from spending on british products and services. in shanghai, there are fears the city is getting back into a lockdown little more than three weeks after exiting a two month ordeal. it is the fourth day in a row that case numbers have been above 50. two more rounds of mass testing were triggered in shanghai. the eu gave their final approval today, recommending that -- the nation be allowed to begin using the common currency. it is the first euro newcomer since 2015. pepco raised their outlook for the second quarter in a row -- pepsico raised their outlook for the second quarter in a row. consumer demand remains

i'm jonathan ferro with his abramowitz. tom keene is back on monday. lisa: i know you don't like a bad news is good news but i will throw in another one. how about goldilocks? we are sharing about a new goldilocks where you see slowing in growth but it is not that severe, not allowing the fed to hike too much and we go into a zone where people can be optimistic? you are hearing this with a rally that has been dramatic this month. jonathan: did goldilocks like her breakfast at 200 degrees? 9% inflation, can you call the goldilocks? lisa: i am just wrapping my head around the metaphor. that is the issue, can you even get there if you don't get inflation back to a 3% figure? how can we do that with where it is with the cost of goods going up and projections for oil given that we are at 9.1% for cpi? jonathan: is that what this fed wants to see, the loosening of financial conditions? the fed speaks for me more important than today to. i am not sure what to take from the gdp print and i think they will tell us. lisa: phila. they said something fascinating w

he has to sell to his clients before jonathan ferro. jonathan: today's move lower in euro-dollar is just a warning sign as to what may materialize. we have an even higher conviction that euro-dollar will reach parity toward 98 in august, and maybe even lower. jonathan: how do you have a higher conviction on a war in ukraine, with all the seriousness of that, and at some point they must address strong dollar. 98 euro. that is .98. jonathan: within that is a call for gas prices. this is where fx teams are getting uncomfortable. they have to make that call to make a call on euro-dollar. matt: i just want to point out, we talk about the euro at the lowest since 2002. that is when it really started. you can talk about 1985, 2001, but we did not trade our deutschmark's four euros until about 2002. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. heard on radio, seen on tv. this is bloomberg surveillance. and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you ne

lisa: i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: we begin with the big issue. a monumental two weeks for the federal reserve. >> inflation trend is a problem. >> inflation has to be taken very seriously. >>

this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we look for another 75. tom: bristol-myers squibb, adp, all that comes down to is it is better than good. you see it with google, microsoft, the world coming to an end at 4:15, 4:20, you get to the morning and guess what? they are up. jonathan: resilience given what we have seen. tom: i think this wraps around what chairman powell will have to say today. we are getting along. are we in the crisis as we try to bring inflation down? the debate we are having on the show is fabulous. jonathan: there are things happening by umoja in this fed wants to see, maybe job openings come down, more demand coming out of the labor market. we want to see an adjustment in the housing sector. gasoline prices are lower. are we ticking boxes? lisa: the problem is if the market goes ahead of the fed, so much further than the fed would like. perhaps we are ticking boxes now, but i can happen in a somewhat sudden fashion. all the sudden the market turns and economy turns and the fed finds itself to type. how much -- too tight. ther

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. we stagger away from a fed meaning -- a fed meeting and pivot away to any number of stories. earnings this afternoon and inflation, it is going to disappear. don't tell germany moments ago, and 8.5% statistic. jonathan: brutal. we look for cpi in europe as well, which potentially pushes them to hike again into economic weakness. the fed has got to do something about it potentially later this year, which forces some people to believe maybe they back off from hiking interest rates much further. tom: bavaria up 8% year-over-year. absolutely shocking. a shocking fed meeting yesterday. we recalibrate into today and we stagger in this hour to an important gdp look. jonathan: 8:30 eastern time. it is not that binary. are we seeing signs of weakness? yes we are. will it spread? potentially. that is what we've got to keep our eye on. look out for jobless claims. read straight weeks they have been ticking higher. will it be week four? tom: thierry wizman will join us from a quarry -- from macqu

from new york city this morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. futures up .9% on the s&p. nasdaq 100 futures up 1.4%. for once, no drama with the euro dollar. tom: i would still watch currency. a .97 handle, that stronger swiss franc, it is an interesting currency. jonathan: the story is not over for europe by any stretch. i think that will become base case quickly. tom: there is a photograph of dwight david eisenhower walking and it is a diplomatic eisenhower. nelson rockefeller attended the funeral. i believe in the middle 1970's. it was a moment my grandparents talked about in 1943 where she spoke before congress. it was a statement on the independence of taiwan. annmarie hordern joins us now, our bloomberg washington correspondent, on a minor affair that i do not think is minor. the speaker of the house, am i correct, will visit taiwan? annmarie: you are not correct that we do not have a firm confirmation that she will make the stop to taiwan but she is planning a trip to asia early august. she is making preparation to stop in japan. they wil

from new york city with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures recovering just a little bit on the s&p 500, on the nasdaq down .6%. where do you want to start? euro-dollar very close to breaking and staying below 101. it broke that level. right now 1.0106. yields in about one basis points. in the commodity market, down about 2% on crude. a lot of questions about more restrictions on the world's second-largest economy. very soon. jonathan: we have seen -- tom: we have seen that. i would note honestly be monday that is not sleepy, dxy is reaching out on a week euro. can i note that mohamed el-erian had my tweet of the weekend. he wrote a blistering short tweet that said with all of the fancy people like mohamed el-erian, it is the bro some out of inflation that is crushing society -- it is the gross amount of inflation that is crushing society. jonathan: he is worried about the stickiness of this. tom: i agree with that. jonathan: to settle at five? four? how much longer do you have to deal with that. tom: when i talk about the x axis and w

i am jonathan ferro with matt. we have to start with this fx market. tom: fx is really front and center. bitcoin is not a currency, just to keep matt in order. fx is a litmus paper of the system. maybe three times in every decade it really matters. i'm going to go back to deutsche bank, the day of the putin invasion of ukraine, he said strong dollar will break the system. are we there yet? jonathan: look at the consequences already. the trade balance in germany turning negative. you throw in the bundesbank, to the ecb and the executive board. tom: there is no question about it. i'm going to partition it right now. is em fx and then you've got the actual fx euro-dollar, the rest of it, but you've got the triangulation of the different pairs and that is what we will focus on in the jobs report. jonathan: michael feroli on friday, downgrading his outlook for economic growth off the back of a soggy soft week in manufacturing numbers. matt: and it looks like in the u.s., we are already in a recession, at least technically because we had a contraction in the

i'm jonathan ferro, the equity market looks like this. we are down 4/10 of 1% on the s&p and nasdaq. walmart getting hammered this morning after cutting its profit outlook. once again, we are getting used to this from the retailer. yields are down six basis points. growth concerns leading over things in the united states. look at the euro. the euro-dollar -1%. concerns about russian gas, high gas prices, and lower consumption of gas going into winter from europeans, all weighing on the outlook to growth. tom: really can't say enough about the tensions in the market, exceptionally complex. normally before a fed meeting you would think it would be pretty quiet, it is not. jonathan: not with europe in the mix, not now. a republican from arkansas barely mentions is financial services, his banking life, irrespective on capitol hill to talk about the central banks. one of the jewels of bloomberg is a guy named craig torres. he's been writing on the federal reserve for years and he sent me a blistering note overwinter they're going to be a trans

with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.

with tom keene jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. kailey leinz is in fort lee said this morning. an historic day, not about the labor economy or adp, it's about four exchange and yield showing the shocking bet toward a global slowdown. jonathan: numbers we have not seen for two decades. sterling breaking down to a 1.18 handle. a difficult time for europe. gas prices, energy prices very much at the epicenter of it. tom: up 300% plus for utility costs in the united kingdom. just to capture the moment, maybe it is away from the morning dialogue, em foreign-exchange has moved from plus three down to minus -- em fx is in collapse. jonathan: he just called it what it is for so many people come recession trade. even crude rolling over. 99 wti. curve inversion. it is starting to come together in a more pronounced way. tom: i have jp morgan, goldman sachs and others giving us the fear of 120 oil, and edward morse absolutely crushed that. jonathan: that gives you an idea of the degree of uncertainty, the ranges that why four people in this com

abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 1.4 percentage points. bonds, fx? tom: morgan stanley is a sideshow to what's going on in the markets. where mcdonald was a tour de force. em is catching up with what we see in the developed countries. the idea is the egypt nine your piece is down 20 some percent. so what? except it is happening. it is back to chairman powell. jonathan: e.m. like news -- moves, we have the inversion of the treasury market. going back to the year 2000. this is big stuff. tom: that is exactly right. suddenly it is there and we've got to get the former deputy governor of the bank of canada over what canada did yesterday. are they leading the way for the adults in the room? jonathan: they went 100, she will follow. lisa: that is the discussion, market is a one in two chance that the fed will go that way. the fed officials who spoke in so far are not doing anything to dampen speculation. we heard yesterday basically confirmation from the atlanta fed saying we will do with everett -- whatever i

this is bloomberg "the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathon: live from new york city's, we again from -- we begin with a big issue. >>

. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro and this is "bloomberg real yield." it's time for the auction block where we kick things off in europe with volatility this week. and issuance from spain and the u.k. pushing monthly volume up to 89 billion. in the u.s. hi craig, bond sales stalling, falling short of estimates for a third straight week. in the junk bond market, issuance remaining stale throughout the second quarter. we've had this lowest first half for issuance since 2009. sticking with us is -- a wells fargo. >> yield typically peaks on 10% in the psycho and right now it is high. so i would say it is tennis, may around there. the fed is looking at this -- these ideal conditions saying it hurts but this is a feature not a bug. jonathan: kathy jones, i know you agree. can you tell me when credit starts to get interesting for you? kathy: i would agree with greg. it is not time yet. it is premature. we have been holding off on high yields and on investment grade, being cautious. we do think the economy slowed out -- slows down and we think it slows down fa

with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news, i am ritika gupta. officials at the fed may debate a historic 1% rate hike this month. the fed president told reporters everything is in play after consumer prices rose faster than they expected, 9.1% through june. it is more than likely to hike rates by 100 basis points at the next meeting. -- is looking at announcing in september he will one for -- donald is looking to announce in september he will run for president again. before the midterm, he will drive turnout. in israel, president biden committed to extending an agreement that provides billions of dollars to the military, signing a joint declaration with the prime minister. the document says the countries will never allow iran to acquire a nuclear bomb. in the u.k., conservative party balloting continuing in the process to determine the next prime minister. it has been cut to six and trade minister penny morgan has emerge

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. the three of us back together again, at least for a number of hours. that is a good and beautiful thing. lots of economic data this week. no one cares. right now it is about the markets. strong dollar speaks volumes. jonathan: cpi wednesday, retail sales friday. right now, front and center, strong dollar. euro-dollar, a break of 101. where are we heading now on dxy? 108, maybe even higher. tom: george sarah vallas making clear this is foreigners hoarding dollars in cash. these are not strategic moves. jonathan: right now, they don't want euros. they certainly don't want yen, and they don't want sterling. i'm sure they would quite like a strong currency. tom: a glorious four hours straight with me and jon and all that, as you hear the previous guests frame out what we will here with wei lee in a moment. jonathan: two big points. ultimately, this fed is going to keep on hiking and there could be a financial accident. dislocations in places like credit the second point was that this time

i am jonathan ferro. kicking off q3 and the second half of 2022 on a negative note on the s&p and the nasdaq. yields now in seven basis points, almost eight. rounded down to 2.93. 70 on the 10 year. tom: we are having a festive moment, the friday before a lovely summer weekend. seriously, all of you traveling by airline in plain, our thoughts are with you. logistic chaos. in europe it is baby not the festive week -- in europe it is maybe not the festive weekend in america. joining us is in murray or dern -- is maria tadeo and annmarie hordern. the fact is there is a war going on. it came home to me how subdued christine lagarde was in addressing war. maria tadeo, as we begin july, what is the distinctive debate about all of the players you know and zelenskyy in kyiv? maria: there are two big things. one is the energy situation. for the germans they worry about the potential,. once you do that you will unleash forces nobody can model or control. the other one is how will this end? they are in a difficult s

the conversation up next. ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro and this is "bloomberg real yield." it is time to kick things off in the united states with -- remaining on the side. bond sales topping monthly estimates. in europe, the primary market recording is 28th day of the year without a single deal, helping close out the slow's mother 2022. sticking with europe, goldman-s chief economist expecting a -- goldman's chief economist expecting a recession. >> we are forecasting a recession in the euro area. it would be concentrated in germany and italy, the two countries most dependent on russian gas. it is a difficult situation for them. the economy, despite today's better second-quarter numbers, is looking pretty weak but inflation is much too high. jonathan: rock and a hard place and ecb somewhere in between. what is the ecb's next move? kelsey: it's going to be a difficult road ahead for europe. we agree the road will slow -- growth will slow and materially. though the gdp numbers this morning to surprise the upside, the weakness did come from germany. on the other hand, we saw

matt miller is in for jonathan ferro. i want to focus on currency. the deal x over 108 is the weakness of the strong dollar against parity. 1.0038. the yen is weak. i'm looking at e.m., as well. lisa: that's on the heels of the dollar strength. that is the story of the week. but throughout the week, riproaring rally, and as conviction trade we hear from so many investors, we get those slow bank earnings continuing with citigroup coming out around 8:00. wells fargo at 7:00. these are going to be fascinating not just for their banks and their turnaround plans, but also for the macroeconomy. wells fargo and protect her with mortgages, the housing market, citigroup with the consumer. both of them with a key into preparations, in terms of expansion plans. also, we get a slew of economic data. we were talking and matt mentioned retail sales. for the month of june, how much do we see an ongoing reduction in spending, particularly on an interested basis -- adjusted basis? university of michigan consumer sentiment data 10:00 may be a key factor, especially wi

jonathan: catching up with this at bloomberg headquarters, that was yesterday. i'm jonathan ferro. we are together with kailey leinz. futures are down 0.1%. the nasdaq is down 0.5%. euro-dollar is 101 .40. just to pick up on the words on china, removing some of these tariffs, the latest reporting from the team, the president will meet with his advisers today on possible reductions in tariffs on chinese goods. that meeting is taking place later. tom: the size of those reductions, we are really looking at -- we're looking at small nudges. jonathan: focus on the size and where. that's going to be interesting. what do they remove? what is the reduction? do they double down to make this more palatable at home? this administration is accusing the chinese of conducting genocide, that's a very big accusation. to remove tariffs on that government is going to be a big deal. tom: i want to thank the white house for attendance yesterday. welcome on a most unusual jobs day. jeff rosenberg is one of our guests scheduled to be with us. an assassination in japan. tobias harris will join us in a bi

and supper modes, i'm tongue -- jonathan ferro. euro-dollar is basically at parity. taylor: still doesn't want -- tom: this is one of the most historic days in 20 years. jonathan: heathrow airport asking airlines to stop selling summer tickets. there is a headline i'm not sure we expected to read a couple of years ago. tom: i hefted go way over there to buy stuff on cardi b street. the gyrations of the pandemic, dutch on barnaby street. the gyrations on the pandemic. the correlations right now are off the chart. it is jump conditions tuesday where em gives way along with silliness over the euro parity. kathleen: jonathan: -- jonathan: it is over an energy crisis people think can't get worse. lisa: that was my reaction, is it an effort to conserve diesel, gas or energy or is it what you said, these people sacrificed and how much does it show the dueling nature, and imposed recession or downturn, and imposed retraction we are seeing speculated about in germany in order to avoid an energy crisis? this is a new era. kathleen: -- jonath

keene and lisa abramowitz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: mobile customers of 11%, the financials are buried in the supplemental report beginning on the attention you're going to hear that the press conference earnings calls or whatever you want to call them, return on assets year-over-year from a 1.29% down to 0.89%. tangible book value, this really says it all about fortress and jp morgan, tangible book value is up 1%. this is basically a big bank flatlining, that is a little harsh but flatlining given the tumultuous times. jonathan: the headline in the last 10 minutes, suspending share buybacks. tom: absolutely. jonathan: the stress test kicking into the big way, we have seen massive directions. tom: i will let ousting williams tell me that it does matter. it is cautious, responsible, and it heats up over what we are going to see from the other banks. jonathan: the other disappointing factor is where you expect the strength to be trading, it did not show up. lisa: that is where people were expecting an offset on the investment bankin

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. walmart reaches for the scissors once again. tom: walmart is front and center but it is an amazingly convoluted morning with all sorts of stuff going on. you will get to lufthansa in europe coming up but what you see with walmart is not so much econo babble but actual consumer action. consumers saying i have to buy this, not that. jonathan: we have an execution problem in the mix as well. tom: gm out and we will talk to the cfo and you wonder what the execution mix at gm is as well. who cares about the recession. corporations are adapting and adjusting. jonathan: stockmarkets adjusting as well and bramo, we talk about these issues again and again and people come out and say they are well priced and target and walmart prove us. those people are wrong because it is not well priced at all. lisa: that is going to become a theme, trying to parse out the distinction in this nebulous world. how much do we see walmart representing what we will see in other retailers? certainly stocks seem to

i'm jonathan ferro together with kailey leinz and tom keene. the nasdaq 100 up .2%, goes higher by a couple basis points, crude falls back, slipping beneath the radar but a sizable move. any $5.13 and to round things -- $95.13. and the tiniest bit of euro strength going into the decision, 8:15 eastern time. tom: it is very nuanced, something to watch. that usual turkish lira angst, but worth watching. the swiss franc supposed to be at 0.98 moments ago, a big deal to see it below .99 as we go into the important moment for the ecb and christine lagarde. francine lacqua is in rome, not just in a heatwave but in a normal summer in rome made more complex by the collapse of the draghi 10-year -- 10-year -- tenure. she will join us cozy in the moment with a spreads that she has earned. francine: and air-conditioning. tom: yes. for draghi, what is next? francine: we don't know what's next but we -- he will probably be looking at italian politics from afar. there is no real legitimacy 10 taking charge of the government, he has been in charge for many mo

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 0.5%. said it a few times already this morning. what a week coming up. tom: it is a nice time to recalibrate. that has been my theme here. the fed meeting clearly the key thing. we remind lisa that she's doing the show. we've got a great set of guests coming up. the s&p 500 with a recent lift is a correction. it is down 10%. it is not that bad out there. tom: we are beings of -- jonathan: we are being supported by lower yields because the data is weak, so what are you going to trade, the week data, the lower yields? tom: i think earnings have surprised on the upside. there's a lot of people keeping score of this. i think julian emanuel is doing a great job on it, and earnings have been ok. jonathan: is snapchat your bellwether? tom: it my bellwether. can we all get over it? jonathan: snap, twitter. looking ahead to alphabet, facebook or get they are the heavyweights for america and worldwide. lisa: 20% of the index is going to report this week, comprised of those five names which are going

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance," alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro with kailey leinz. year equity market negative .1. we are on two things, parity watch and resignation watch number two. tom: they are linked. the stress and attention away from the scandals that are the reality of uncontrollable inflation. i would emphasize for our american audience on radio and television it is different in the u.k. utility bills, grocery bills, the nearness of the continent, the nearness of the war of ukraine makes it a different moment, as sir lindsay hoyle talks in the house of commons right now. jonathan: we can hand it over to the house of commons right now with questions. prime minister: to make impacts lower and the tax burden easier. these changes will benefit 30 million people across the u.k., and i'm pleased to say that two of those people are seated in the public gallery today, mandy, a typical worker, will now save the h

i am jonathan ferro alongside tom keene together with kailey leinz. equity futures up .8% or .9% on the s&p. the ecb writing its own promo. tom: we are in front two days early because it is important, and the research notes on it are outstanding. i will go to our guest in the last hour, great set of guests. he says this is christine lagarde and she has lost optionality. jonathan: our latest reporting suggests she is doubling down on the effort to come up with that at all, the transmission detection mechanism on top of the fact they are considering a 50 basis point hike. put that together with this one. this from the european commission on nord stream one. gas supplies into europe, we do not expect it comes back. we were looking for to come back this thursday. tom: that is a wildcard for her. the issue here is the elephant in the room. from day one it has been a different structure than the united states. they do not have a combined fiscal policy and yet on february 24 deutsche bank told us they will need a massive combined fiscal policy. jonathan: tha

this is bloomberg "the open," with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the end of forward guidance.

alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, here with kailey leinz. futures down. it is the end of forward guidance. tom: we can talk about that and bonds forward next week to a very important fed meeting. but we have to do -- what i see on the data screen right now is the shocking speed that we see in curve inversion. absolutely stunning how we revisit new, greater inversion. jonathan: what i see in economic data in europe, it is dreadful. pmi a downside surprised here that is not what you want to see the day after a for the basis point hike. socgen still calling this one unbuyable potentially through the rest of the year. tom: that is on the gdp as well they have become dependent perhaps after what we saw yesterday. obviously, the market not impressed. the surge in euro terms right around. it is about economic data, wrapped against, as lagarde mentioned yesterday, original politics. tom: -- jonathan: isn't it good news we stop pretending what will happen in europe? tom: you know where i am on this. jonathan: what do you make of snap chat coming out and saying no

jonathan: this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, together with kailey leinz. bramo back we hope next week. tom: we heard from a listener in nepal who has seen her, she is at everest past camp two. she is not near the death zone next. from the gentleman from nepal, he thought you and i were on speaking terms. jonathan: will get an update from bramo hopefully later this week. the dollar is weaker, the euro stronger. tom: help me with the parlor game on ecb. are we having a parlor game on how much christine lagarde will lift? jonathan: according to sources may be 50 basis points. how small is this window for this ecb to hike interest rates given what people think will happen with growth later this year and given what may or may not happen next week on thursday when nord stream one was meant to come back online. the european commission said "we don't expect it comes back." tom: in addition, the window of the heatwave. you assume that what we are seeing once in a century, once-in-a-lifetime in england diminishes economic growth? kailey: i am -- j

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. john: from our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. futures up half of 1%. the week ahead. tom: we are getting ready for a show, a terrific lineup to give you perspective. we've got to get there first. it is the recession debate over the weekend, a really rich weekend of research. he has been so good on staying in the markets because recession is not inevitable. >> september 21 is the meeting. it is the final 75 basis point hike. tom: long ago and far away is an election coming. we've got to get lisa reacquainted with the terminal. november 2, after september 21, more important. john: it has been a while, hasn't it? hiking unknown everest. we wanted to keep it real interesting. lisa: is good to be back and it sounds like as always, it was -- tom: did you get a headache coming back? lisa: i thought you were going to ask if i got a headache coming back on the show. wonder how much that has to do with the dollar weakness that has

i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market with a left, piling into equities over the past couple of days. we are up on the s&p. up more than 1% on the nasdaq. this from credit suisse. whether or not we are in a recession will be debated by academics. today's report reflects a weakening in economic activity, and for now bad news represents good news for stocks. more still to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping -- >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. the euro area economy has expanded by more than three times the amount economists expected. that comes at a time and inflation and a possible russian energy cut will send the region into recession. gdp rose .7% in the second quarter. inflation sent an all-time high in july. president joe biden and jinping have told aides to plan an in-person meeting. the two spoke on the phone for more than two hours yesterday. that call, centered on taiwan. matters could get worse if house speaker minute -- house speaker nanc

lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro myself. yields higher by about a basis point, your 10-year is 269.51. that is quite a move. lisa: amazon benefited from a cloud computing at aws which did better than expected. they don't have the same kind of inventory. they have other people selling stuff on their platform so they are not left with the hangover amazon and walmart -- the hangover amazon -- hangover walmart is dealing with. kailey: the big -- jonathan: the big question in washington is if the speaker policy will go to taiwan. joining us now is isaac boltansky. i know you feel like this is lose-lose. which way will she take? isaac: it feels difficult for her to have to pull back at this time. i think she has to go to taiwan. i think the optics would be atrocious if she skips out now and it would be a terrible signal given our relationship with taiwan. lisa: how does president biden deal with this and what does this do with his agenda? he spent two hours 20 minutes speaking about that with president xi jinping. isaac: from a pr

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. global slowdown. thank you for joining goebel wall street -- global wall street and all of you interested in this international slowdown. everywhere we look, that is the signal. jonathan: loud and clear over the last few weeks. the worst year since 2001 and underpinning behind that move, and energy issue. perhaps that is already here. tom: we see it with the death of esg. we see it in rotterdam as well, but what i want to focus on in the last hour, we have curve inversion, a 2/10 spread. jonathan: it has been developing over the last few weeks. some people think we could get very close to a nine handle on headline cpi. tom: there is headline cpi and then core cpi. lisa, how do you focus on the data and what will occur in fixed income? lisa: it does not seem like nuance will rule the day. year-over-year, it is one of the most extreme cases and predictions and that is the case, you can expect people to start to price in 275 basis point rate hikes and when you

. ♪ jonathon: i am jonathan ferro. this is "real yield." public-sector sales failing to reach issuance and falling short of expectations. in the u.s., sales rebounding after a week long hiatus. helping break a streak of whining pushing issuance to nearly $14 billion. the job bond market interrupted by one issuer. selling $350 million will be breathing life into high yields after the slowest june since 2010. blackrock is dying to put some cash to work. >> the credit markets, we started to let the line out on some of that cash. if we will be run rate inflation over the next five to 10 years, we could buy high-yield at 9.5. you could buy investment-grade quality into the median part of the yield curve at five-ish. that is a pretty good real rate. there is some stuff to do now. jonathon: back with us, megan greene and zach griffith. he said there is work to do in high-yield. given that you think rates will be down to 4.5% and that we have not seen the height on treasuries, what does the credit spreads on one week of time make? zachary: certainl

>> i'm lisa abramowicz in the verb -- in for jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts now. a suit of data brings conflict to the federal reserve with long-term inflation expectations falling to the lowest level in a year. facing off with the highest current inflation and's 1981, we begin with the big issue, recession talks going louder. >> recession -- >> recession -- >> what type of recession would be? >> this idea of a hurricane is probably the wrong idea. >> we get a mild recession -- >> probably the right idea might be rain. >> the fed is in a sticky spot. >> right now they are almost solely focused on inflation mandate. >> unfortunately, it is a crude channel of lowering demand. >> a stronger federal reaction. raises recession risk. >> the fed is keenly aware of that -- >> the economy is slowing but the fed wanted to slow. >> you have an overheating economy. lisa: in the soup of recession talks, joining us to discuss is cameron dawson. -- dawson, morgan's are presented, and a representative from goldman sachs. start with cameron. airing the swell of recession talks, ha

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with john keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jon: live from new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. netflix a free market around 7%. tom: they still lost one million survivors. to me it was relatively good news that we got out of that. the tech story we get here in the next number of days -- technology. the ecb and all we are going to talk about, equity market have live. jon: best stock has been had at superlow. amazon and apple next thursday, what are you looking for? tom: the guidance floor on what is very good for them. going the other way, the supply shock. what i am really looking for there, is is this the part they become evermore -- and start talking about what they are going to do with the cash flow. jon: you mentioned china. the london boycott, apparently it has spread. lisa: it started with homebuyers not paying their mortgage payments because their homes aren't actually finished. developers are not finishing the project. now it is spreading to suppliers who supply those builders with material. they are not paying ei

this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with a big issue. here come the downgrades. >> economists have begun to cut their top-down economic forecast

. ♪ >> everything you >> this is bloomberg's the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the big issue.

announcer: this is "bloomberg serveillance: early edition" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa brummel it's. -- alisa abramowitz. tom: tuesday looking to thursday and it is real simple. jon, we've got to look to ecb and america has to pay attention. this time it is not a snooze fest. jonathan: not at all. the ecb may be taking a page out of the fed's book by t and up a a few days before the meeting. the fact that president regarding going to recognize that according to the european union, they don't think nord stream one is coming online. you've got a pretty messy recipe for the european economy this year. tom: of course, that folds over to the fragmentation. we need to stop right now and explain the hope of this policy. italy, higher yield. germany, lower yield. some type of manipulation some of europe takes the price change on new estimates. jonathan: basically, ron -- close-ish. kind up with this new tour. they haven't actually put that altogether yet. it is going to be interesting for more reasons than one. tom: philip lane is more than qualified. -- is able to say to christine the

i'm jonathan ferro with tom keene and kailey leinz, elizabeth -- lisa abramowicz is out. as i futures basically unchanged, up 40.03%. the euro looks like this, 1.0189 on the euro-dollar, crude lower, almost 5% with negative 4.5%. $95 in about $.40. the headline from president biden come out there could be a call between him and the chinese leader within the next 10 days. tom: we will talk tariffs and we will have to see a hugely political move in washington and also hugely political in beijing as they are flat on their back over mortgage angst in and across china. right now, chuck fitzpatrick is with us at bloomberg government. i want to talk about the pound from the modern age, from woodrow wilson to ronald reagan, to george w. bush and may be president who is a bit of an agent state. that is presidents in the summer doldrums of just trying to schedule out the summer to get to the fall. what is the mood, 1600 pennsylvania avenue, or what is the plan to get to the frigid temperatures of september? >> not sure there is much of a plan to get through the doldrums of summer g

tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro at its all about earnings today. tom: coca-cola out with a headline i have never seen before, coca-cola with a 9% currency headwind. these are extraordinary time. jonathan: if in doubt, blame the dollar. tom: i mean, 4% is sort of the theme. i will tell you, it is so illuminating to see how each company is struggling with this post-pandemic economy. jonathan: struggling to execute, the right spot, the right time, with the right inventory. walmart, struggling to do that. tom: you nailed it, you called it a product mix. i give them credit, they have been out front with warning people. i can't read like you can read, but comp sales, 9.7%. that's a lot of cheeseburgers. jonathan: you can't read like i can read? that is a lot of cheeseburgers. [laughter] tom: number two value meal? we can do that. jonathan: thank you, tom. it's a revenue story but it isn't. it's about what they are spent on, making it a margins tory. they can't anticipate how quickly this is going to change. we have seen it repeatedly from target to walma

jonathan: good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance, i'm jonathan ferro along with kailey leinz. on the nasdaq 100, we are up by 1.12%. earlier, bank of america earnings, coming up next, goldman. tom: goldman sachs telling us maybe it be eight better quarter and we will hear from j.p. morgan in a moment. green on the screen, it's a very nice live through the market, 22,000. jonathan: next week the federal reserve conclusion after the consumer sentiment survey of data on friday with a rate hike that is 75 and not on hundred. >> i don't know what to make of the ecb meeting. i think it's hugely anticipated by economic wants. -- wonks. what is she going to say that's going to change the dialogue around a brutal war in ukraine and horrific weather. jonathan: what's the most important aspect of thursday? the ucp work nord stream one coming online and how much gas will do it. jonathan: i will -- tom: i will go with that. we are seeing it in the price of gold -- gold -- the price of coal and gas. the distinction between the confidence and tone in europe versus america, it's

haslinda: that was bloomberg opinion columnist mohamed el-erian, with our, jonathan ferro. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. ubs is said to be considering a plan to promote someone to be the sole head of its wealth management unit. that would potentially set him up as an eventual successor to the chief operating office ralph humorous. he joined ubs and 2019 from credit suisse. leaked documents reportedly showed that uber tried to lobby politicians like the french president as part of its global push between 2013 and 2017. the so-called "uber files" are more than 24,000 documents that cover when the co-founder travis kalanick was ceo. rishaad: let's have a look at the market action at the moment related to hong kong, going from its lunch break. it has really soured. the negativity at the moment is sending it to .75% down. tech stocks at the moment responsible for that markdown in equities here in hong kong. fresh fines being instituted on alibaba and tencent. on top of that, property developers as well. evergrande had a rejection of its application for an