jay powell warned against premature easing. he said they are going to focus on the totality insight as to how big it should be so the new cpi number out next week tuesday morning focus. it wasn't just jay powell. another also said that he could see the 75 basis point rate hike. definitely leaning in that direction. as for christine lagarde and the ecb, it was considered a tossup. the have an energy crisis, yet they have high inflation. >> the governing council today decided to raise the three key ecb interest rates by 75 basis points. this may set front load the transition from the prevailing highly accommodative level of policy rates toward levels that will ensure the timely return of inflation to our target. >> just as important if not more so, she said they see more hi hikes as needed and importantly it wasn't just the hawks pushing the doves in that direction. the doves are on board also. >> not a done deal. before this meeting before we heard these remarks and saw the kinds of things we were seeing in their statement, peop

powell is trying to follow this volcker attack on inflation, jay powell in have large part caused all of this. we never needed -- again, you don't have to take away punchbowl if you didn't serve up hooch to investors, and enrich leveraged rich two years for two years, by the way, the end of 2020, they still passed the trump administration and everybody still passed additional covid relief, before two trillion dollars from joe biden after he took office, they were still doling out money, right and left. we didn't need it we already had vaccine, all of the stimulus should have ended when we got a vaccine, period. >> did cancels, end of 2020 jay powell term coming unwanted to be reappointed, the progressives pushing lael brainard down his throat competing with her to get reappointed you can't convince me it was also not political what was going on with the stimulus as well watching that inflation the federal reserve kicked off day one september meeting this morning former kansas city president thomas hoenig here joined me last week on this program here was his thoughts after that hotter

when you listened to jay powell today, when you saw the dots, is it clear than ever that jay powell has finally embraced the idea that without slowing the economy to the point of recession, giving up all hope of a soft landing is necessary that's what he has to do that's what they have to do now to finally down inflation. >> that's the core of it. i don't think you would say he has completely given up the idea that it would be something that is soft issue. the rate is only going to be 4.4%, that is still much to sanguine. fig is going to go beyond 5%. -- i think is going to go beyond 5%. there is going to be more pain. is it necessary? >> the interesting thing is not that they moved 38 that they expect to get to to 4.6 from 3.8 , look at the dots. you have six along the top almost at five then six along the bottom who are closer to 4.4. then you have the median in the middle. lately we have found that has been the more hawkish dots, the hawkish people on the fomc who have led as we went forward. you are in the 5% on's. why? >> i think they will most likely be in 4.5% to 5%. it really de

alix: did we learn anything new from jay powell? michael: the only thing about the bit kind going holding up the sign in back of janet yellen a couple of years ago, turned out to be the moderator's new son-in-law but other than that, we did not learn anything new. he said they will stay the course and continue on until they get the job done and break down the inflation rate and they will be flexible and do what it takes to get it down. they could adjust the qt process if they need to and he ruled out any additional changes to the fed mandate and ruled out using rules, things he has said before. guy: maria, you're going from the ecb conference tomorrow and christine lagarde talked about the idea that federal stimulus could be inflationary. issue making a difficult decision without an understanding of what the ultimate policy response from europe will look like when it comes to calm the energy markets? maria: if you follow christine lagarde, she always said there needs to be federal support. today she had a different to and talked abo

coming up, jay powell takes a shot at crypto. take a look. >> unbacked cryptocurrencies as such don't appear to offer, have not offered, don't appear to offer much in the way of public interest in using them as payments. it is not a great store of value. what it is, is a speculative asset. charles: we'll put him down as a maybe. we'll ask jim bianco for his reaction after this. ♪ go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson. ♪ i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. so i consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. sofi. get your money rig

fed chief jay powell will make that announcement today at 2:15 p.m. eastern. meanwhile rates have been spiking, take a look at ten-year treasury this morning where we are looking at rates pulling back by 2.7 basis points, now at level 3.51%. first time over 11 years after stocks finished down yesterday. take a look, markets were lower across the board over worries of rates and slowing economy. dow industrials down 1% and nasdaq down 109 on the session. that was about 1% and the s&p lower by 44, 1%. all at two month lows. today the nation's largest ceos headed to capitol hill testifying in house and senate wednesday and thursday on economy rates and other hot-button issues. european market looks like this, ftse 100 right now higher by 52, cac up 16 and the dax index in germany higher by 14. checking asia overnight, red across the board, hong kong was the biggest mover on the downside, down 1.8%. and on the border front officials in delaware and the white house are on migrant watch as florida governor ron desantis threatens to send illegal migrants to president

i mean -- >> but that -- that's what i mean is jay powell -- are jay powell and company going to be allowed to continue this, or is it going to get hairier and hairier and you're right, they're countering what they're doing by spending more. >> right, they're making it more difficult for jay powell, the democratic majority is just insistent on trying to continue to push out checks to people i mean, that's really what they're doing. i mean, you look at all the things that they've done, the most impactful to inflation are these transfer payments, like the rescue act, which was $2 trillion, and now this student loan money that's on top of the infrastructure bill, the c.h.i.p.s. bill, and the other things so, again, there's some counter, sort of, activity going on there, and as you know, the federal reserve is supposed to be independent, and yes, there's going to be political rhetoric that's coming out, trying to blame the fed, but the administration's always said it is up to the fed to try and tame this inflation so, you know, i think, look, the -- sort of the table is set as far as the upcomi

charles: i don't see jay powell messily doing that. >> we'll find out. charles: our note, our equity strategists disagree own the next direction of 10%. so the equity strategist sees low equity earns returns but the technical strategist sees trading opportunities on upside? >> this is investment bank, not within wealth management. charles: okay. >> i think that highlights how much uncertainty and how crazy and unique and historic this is, right? so there is volatility. there will be more volatility. a lot has to do, the strategists evidence that a tale of two time frames. i can tell you exactly what you need to do to get through the next six, nine, 12 months and i can tell you it will be better in one to three years but what you do in the next short term is very different than the next long term because as we just discussed, there are some things that need to be worked through the economy and we're not in isolation, right? we have a swiss bank did a raise of 1% this morning. >> right. >> so we're talking about a jigsaw puzzle that is so intricate and whe

maria: federal reserve chairman jay powell is vowing to raise interest rates to fight inflation until the job is done. how markets are moving on that and what it means for this month's fed meeting coming up. we will preview september 21st and next meeting. don't misexclusive interview with arc investment kathie wood and we will break down how she's investing in growth in slowing economy. you're watching mornings with maria live on fox business. ♪ ♪ ♪ ...or the great indoors. welcome to the peak of premium off-roading. the new 2023 gmc sierra at4x. gmc. we are professional grade i have moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. so i'm taking zeposia, a once-daily pill. because i won't let uc stop me from being me. zeposia can help people with uc achieve and maintain remission. and it's the first and only s1p receptor modulator approved for uc. ♪ don't take zeposia if you've had a heart attack, chest pain, stroke or mini-stroke, heart failure in the last 6 months, irregular or abnormal heartbeat, if you have untreated sleep apnea, or take maois. zeposia may cause serious side effect

jay powell wanted to get reappointed. he had lael brainard nipping at his heels, pushed forward by alexandria ocasio-cortez and the progressives. he was afraid he would get the job. he flooded the system with stimulus and called it transitory. this is where we are. dagen: this wasn't just powell. this was eight of the 16 fed governors. maria: yeah. i can assure you robert kaplan wasn't on the list. he was a dissenter. and there were plenty of the list that said i'm a dissenter. thomas hoenig was a dissenters in 2010. in 2020 robert kaplan was a dissenter. the morning mover is take two. the video company down after an announcement that a hacker made one of the biggest leaks in video game history. dozens of videos were posted in an online message board over the week end. the hacker is looking to neglnegotiate a deal, asking the company to contact them. take two interactive software shares down 30% year-to-date, this morning down 6 and-a-half percent. it is a busy monday morning. stay with us. calling out bidens' bad policie

what is going through the mind of the federal reserve or jay powell's mind on this bond market? >> i think they are looking at the two-year nominal yield which is a little bit technical. it's also the two-year real yield and the 10 year real yield. if you look at nominal treasury yield and subtract inflation or expected in elation, you have a 10 year real rate of interest above 1% stop that's essentially the highest level real rate and that would indicate to fed officials that in terms of policy rate expectations, they are getting to levels that may be somewhat restrictive. that's baking in the expectations that they will move toward 4.5% which is what the market is requesting and expectations are shifting. it's inflation expectations which are staying relatively low as nominal interest rates are moving higher. kriti: a fascinating conversation, i could talk to you guys for the next hour. coming up next, the fed decides. that does it for me, stay with us as we count down to the all-important federal reserve decision, tom and lisa will take it from here. this is bloomberg. ♪

fed chair jay powell said we need to curb inflation rate. central banks hiked just over 200 basis points in the past 24 hours. big roadblocks on the path to risk assets. japan's blockbuster intervention. from new york, i am alix steel, with my coworker in london, guy johnson. welcome to bloomberg markets. that was a fun 12 hours we just saw. how high can we push these rates? that really is the question. guy: it's been quite crazy. we have been waiting for this moment to come. the fed has indicated that it is firmly on the path to curb the u.s. recession. i guess if you look at today's claims number, maybe they have a reason to want to slowly admit -- to sloat the labor market down a little bit. you have the s&p by 75. that doesn't include the qt. alix: it doesn't. mortgage rates in the u.s. at 6.2%. they do have to see how things really roll over. we are seeing these mortgage rates showing signs that that could happen. guy: again, the process seems to be going slowly. the u.s. market looks like it is in fairly good shape. the labor market lo

we'll have jay powell's press conference. we'll have amazing guests in studio to help with you breaking it all down. you cannot miss this. we'll stay on the markets. coming up the most crazy swings. jpmorgan is actually saying there is very little demand for crypto these days. has the crypto winter thawed or is it cooler? we have haley linen coming up next ♪ i may be close to retirement but i'm as busy as ever. and thanks to voya, i'm confident about my future. voya provides guidance for the right investments. they make me feel like i've got it all under control. voya. be confident to and through retirement. if you shop with the walmart app? you know everything you need is right at your fingertips. ♪ so you can spend a little less, to get a little more. to make life a little better. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. v

>> what will jay powell say? >> okay this is so fantastic of course, how much this is one. >> that one is 84.99. >> karaoke as well. >> i wake up -- >> some people say when i take a song make it my own. come on. >> do we have time. >> come >> ♪ -- that's life ♪ ♪ . >> chairman of the board. >> high in april shot down -- >> rosa -- >> come on. >> i am kicking out good vibrations ♪ ♪ this is, more information toys check out our web site. we'll be right back. . i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. ... what if you were a major transit system with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year? you aren't about to let any cyberattacks slow you down. so you partner with ibm to build a security architecture to keep your data, network, and applications protected. now you can tackle threats so they don't bring you to a grinding halt. and everyone's going places, including you. let's create cybersecurity that

europe is worse than jay powell. they are at 0%. at least jay powell is on the move but you can see again today the bond market, i expect the 10 year to go into the fours, the capital going up and lose the wealth effect, we are losing the stock market, the bond market and now it will be housing and it is a big worry going forward and not just recession but a long-winded and probably deep recession. i hate saying this, i would rather say otherwise but when you let a select few people try to control markets and the economy this is what you get. ashley: you have been saying this for some time but i think you are being proven correct every step of the way. thank you for joining us this morning. it is reality. let's bring lahren back and looking at the movers. lauren: down 10%, jpmorgan cut them to underweight and they took the price target to 27 down from one hundred 32. here is why. recent covid vaccine dynamics in the us and in europe they say suggest further guidance cuts are in the offing. let's move in the other direction. robin ho

jay powell is not the only central banker making headlines. the swiss bringing rates out of negative territory japan supporting the yen for the first time in years. >>> and head back to capitol hill for another grilling. it is thursday, september 22nd, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is on assignment at a conference in california he'll be joining us later this morning. in the meantime, here we go. the first day after the big fed decision and hawkish talk coming from jay powell. you see right now after a huge decline yesterday, another 550 points for the dow we are indicated up by 58. s&p fu

investors are starting to heed the message that jay powell is serious about bringing down inflation. the gravitational pull toward the long end of the curve. the recession fears coming into the market and that is being reflected in the oil market. how that is setting us up for the asian trading session, we have new zealand stocks coming online to the downside. new zealand shut today for a public holiday. another wild session and the currencies market. the swiss franc is one of the ones we have been watching. it's incredible these days that even a 75 basis point move from a central bank can beat disappointing to investors. haidi: there's a huge amount of risk in terms of the strategy that japan is taking. >> we had really seen warning signs of this coming through over the last two weeks. the first sign a subscription of one-sided moves. the move out of line with the mental that it became this more explicit threat. we saw that in the first intervention in around 20 years. it did look like perhaps authorities were wanting to stem the selling pressure as we go into a long weekend. as i s

that was the case jay powell gave very strongly, as was the case in jackson hole. the hikes will continue into the future until they get down to 2%. kathleen: jay powell said they are just barely getting to the point where they are starting to get restrictive. next year, the funds rate at the lowest level is expected to go about four point percent. the highest level nearly to five percent. when and where do they get truly restrictive enough to fight inflation and bring it down? >> yes, this is the part where they keep emphasizing policy is inflation-driven. he said several times they will look at it and decide at each meeting, and the numbers on the dot plot show their expectations. i think this goes with the idea of soft-ish landing. they have not given up on that completely. they do acknowledge there is going to be some pain. they want softening in the labor market. haidi: tell us a little bit about the later -- labor data because the strength in those numbers has made it really tough for the fed right now. >> that is exactly right. they said this, and today chai

this morning on "squawk on the street" david and carl asked me if i was concerned fed chief jay powell doesn't know all this and he might press too hard on a severely weakened economy. i said absolutely not. i don't want anyone to lose their job but i know the fed needs to stamp out inflation, especially wage inflation, and at least out here in silicon valley that process is playing out exactly how powell wants it. what's bizarre is if we do go into a recession the epicenter will be here in san francisco where so many new companies have been created creating too much demand for labor, demand that's now vanishing rapidly. second, there's an overriding sense of indispensability of these products or at least claimed indispensability. a belief in the necessity of the technology most everyone has a story of why their product will have to be bought by customers because the clients will have no choice if they don't want to be left behind versus their competition. i want to give these guys the benefit of the doubt, but in almost every single case i believe the indispensability thesis is exagge

plus, federal reserve chairman jay powell says he's going to

investors are turning a little bit higher investors focused solely on jay powell and the federal reserve and the latest policy decision due at 2:00 p.m. eastern time today. >>> in europe, the continent's energy crisis getting more december prass this morning as germany nationalized, took over one of its largest utility companies. >>> plus vladimir putin ordered a partial global iization as they are engaged in war with ukraine for seven months. >>> later diamond and others are headed to congress today wednesday, september 21st, and you are right here watching cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan today left. 's kick off on wednesday morning with equity futures at a lower session after yesterday's trades right now futures are pointing to some modest gains the s&p up by roughly 5 the points, the dow jones by 36 and the dmacz by ten this is a wait-and-see market. 2-year and 5-year yields t highest since 2007, the long bond, the highest since 2014 each of those slightly lower, 3.94%. the ten-year at 3.5% and 30-year long bond, 3.5%. again, a little bit of movement, but every

that tells you jay powell is winning his war against inflation and then some. how about the consumer future expectations according to data from the conference report, expectations about the next six months are at the lowest point since 2013. all right. now take a look at the dow jones industrial in black versus the 21-day average of the put to call option ratio in red that's based on the equity options. buy call options when you're bullish and buy puts when you're bearish. the lower this ratio goes, the worse sentiment has gotten and right now, it's incredibly low not quite financial crisis low because it was -- that was, you know, really pretty horrible and then pandemic. okay pretty low vince is pointing out historically when this ratio gets extremely depressed, it often harolds a bottom in the stock market like in 2009. how about volatility this looks at the vvix which measures the volatility of the cbo volatility index, the vvix for short and divide that by the vvix itself. right now, it's nearing before it was when the market bottomed december of 2018 that

jay powell more clear than ever about how determined they are. let's listen. >> we need to act now strongly as we have been doing and we need to keep at it until the job is done to avoid that. we think we can avoid the kind of very high social costs that paul volcker and the fed had to bring into play in order to get inflation back down and set us up for a long period of price stability. kathleen: interesting that jay powell alludes to the instance, trying to get people we cannot stop, we cannot stop prematurely, and we might have to raise rates more like paul volcker had to do around 1980 to finally get inflation down. he said he will be watching the totality of the data. cpi is the next big part of that total. presumably -- i think it almost does not matter how high it is or is not. it will be so high it will still justify being aggressive and hard to believe it will not be enough for them to do another jumbo. yvonne: and they both spoke at the same time, lagarde and powell, which was interesting. kathleen there from new york. let's get to chie

plus, federal reserve chairman jay powell says he's going to keep raising interest rates until inflation is under control. ark invests cathie wood warning this is a big mistake. she'll tell us why, and we will get reaction from the former president of the federal reserve of kansas, thomas hoenig is here. then, 21 years after the september 11th attacks thousands of first responders and workers at ground zero are still fighting for health benefits as a startling new study reveals another a major health hazard now developing among these heroes. details from a former fdny lieutenant coming up. >>> but first this weekend, president biden continuing to slam the so-called maga republicans while touting his recent massive climate spending and tax increase law. watch. >> republicans talk about being fiscally responsible. we are reducing the deficit while all these things we're doing to spend money. [cheers and applause] not a joke. you think if they really cared about inflation, reducing it, they would have voted for the inflation reduction act. they're coming after your social security. you thin

you know, carl, i just think that jay powell's job right now is to watch. because as these quarters are reported, you're not getting strong quarters, but the next thing you're going to get from housing, cancellations, and too much inventory we are not there yet but historically, when housing rolls over, it rolls over in three months and that's why powell is paying attention. >> he's just going to watch? what is he, chauncey gardner he's just going to sit there and watch? a lot of people criticized the fact that they sat there and watched inflation. you kept saying it was transitory a lot of other people did. and it wasn't. they should have moved >> these are gigantic rate increases off the base and yet, the two-year shows you, he's going again and he's gone again. and what will happen, david, is you'll look like a real sucker if you buy a house that's what's about to occur you're buying a house in 2008 at this point and you're going to -- as soon as it gets off the lot, you're buying and it is going down in value. that's what's happening. that's the win for

it has not happened out of natural movement and that is on jay powell. stuart: you make a lot of sense, great to have you on the show. lauren is with us and she has a firm buy now pay later. >> it was up 3%. the consumer financial bureau, and that is a blow for the sector, you protect consumers. and not making payments on time. stuart: the health insurer humana. >> they raise their annual forecasts again, less inflation. that is a good thing and they do expect to continue. stuart: the gaming stock is up 8. 7%. >> credits we upgraded them to outperform and going up to 117. that is 93% upside from yesterday's close, vegas. the bad news is they are priced into this. stuart: it is far more important than vegas these days, i think at least. lauren: negativity, the lockdowns and closings, traffic. stuart: it is winding down in china too. lauren: for how long and then you go to 0 covid? stuart: speaker pelosi is trying to say when the house may vote on banning stock trading for members. wind we see this? lauren: this month apparently, september 30th is technica

do you think jay powell basically is shifting towards that now? and instead of a soft landing scenario, what does that mean for the dollar? max: yeah, i mean, the term growth is the new play on the theme of stagflation. and the 70's and 80's template that powell and some of the central bankers have been mentioning is a good one. you cannot cut rates and a time soon. even though you could see a technical recession in the u.s., we know the last q2 gdp was slightly negative. for most americans, it is not going to feel like a recession. when prices are so high, when inflation is high and when the labor market is strong. that gives the fed a lot of room to continue being hawkish. i think that it is taken time at the market is coming around to the fact that powell and investors think is probably true. there is no reason to cut rates of 2023 when you have a tight labor market and when you have inflation running at 70%. david: max, things are quite funny right now in a sense, that it is fairly clear what the fed wants to do and everyone tells us it is the

jay powell worked for carlyle group. i don't know about yellin and how it works at the top of the treasury if either of these two were running a publicly traded company, they would have been fired by now >> i agree >> they would have been fired. but yet, do we need to see a change at the top to regain? clearly, the bond market has no confidence in what's going on. and by the way, it's not just here the uk did the same thing. 30-year yields in the uk are soaring back to highs from 20 years ago. how do we fix this we know how we got here. how do we fix it >> i think the fed is finally on the right track. i think that the fed wants to see the fed funds rate get to somewhere between 4.5 to 5%, as quickly as possible. and then they may consider pausing at that time, or looking at the factors at that time, they may decide to go ahead or pause, but i think they know that they're behind a curve and they have to get this under control and there's only a few -- it will only take a few months, a few more raises to do that and then

jay powell particularly mentioned not moving prematurely, so don't be looking for a pivot any time soon, investors. also important to look at the totality of data. charlie evans from the chicago fed, who is known as more of a dove, said that he can see his way clear to a 75-basis-point rate hike. he has not made up his mind yet, but one thing for certain, he said, i know rates have to go a lot higher from here. the question is -- what is a lot for europe? what is a lot for the u.s.? definitely the economies are in a much different situation, but the path policymakers is the same and they are making it clear that this is what they intend to do and probably will not stop any time soon. haslinda: don't look for a pivot any time soon. kathleen hays in new york, thank you. let's bring in the cio of maybank wealth group management. the big question is if the fed will keep hiking. >> i think when the markets rally in july and the early part of august, we thought that investors were premature, and i think powell's jackson hole speech has reinforced that view, right? i think the fed is likely to

>> jay powell is not a hock. is forced to be a hawk right now and same with the rest of the central banks and europe, raising rates also, kicking and dragging to do that. still behind the curve, erased 3 quarters of a point again, equal with the markets and then we will see what happens but we have no doubt liquidity drove the markets up, liquidity and lack of liquidity has taken it down. i believe they caused the views on inflation, now they have to fight it and we are the victims unfortunately and markets remain bearish but i do believe we've seen the low yesterday for now. we have a few above the bear but i'm not so sure there's not more negative to numb before the real bottom. stuart: so it is still a bear market. you are not quite sure whether we will see another big drop before the end of the year. you think that is likely? >> here's the good news, solar stocks during a market, waste management, board market, managed-care, hmos, there are some areas that have shown up on my screen that are bullish and that

jay powell says fed officials will not flinch. i'm francine lacqua in london. all of the attention focused on the passing of queen elizabeth. >> yes, good morning. britain's longest-serving monarch has died at the age of 96. they grieving nation starts to come to terms with the end of an era. she reigned for seven decades working with 16 prime ministers. for the united kingdom and much of the world, queen elizabeth the second defined the latter half of the 20th century. king charles iii takes to the throne. francine: i know it is so moving and you are there in front of buckingham palace. seeing these wonderful and heartfelt pictures of people leaving flowers, what is it like there? anna: yes, we are surrounded by the world's media, as you might expect. the passing of one of the most famous woman in the world, one of the most recognizable women in the world. in britain, many people still find themselves quite shocked at the news of her being monitored carefully by doctors and then things move very quickly. it wasn't until just after 6:00 at night u.k. time that

jay powell is warning that it will hurt. he admits that the chances of a soft landing are diminishing. let's bring in our correspondent enda curran. 4.4 percent this year, 4.6%. is powell saying without saying it that this is a recession we are headed towards? >> he does not want to say it but he came pretty close. heard you say, a 75 point basis hike was expected. the upgrade forecast and the warning that the economy will have to shift pain has driven home to a lot of observers that the fed has not finished the reaction. goldman sachs increasing the forecast for the extent of interest rate hikes. it is not just a 2022 story. markets well over 4% in 2023. 75 basis point move by the fed is a very hawkish message and signals we have a lot more to do in the months ahead. dani: let's talk about the worst for needs to be done. transmitting policy through tightening financial conditions. are we starting to see the cracks yet? what does the fed me to do to get some of those cracks into the market to get inflation back down? >> this

joe biden may come to regret keeping jay powell on as federal reserve chair. we're seeing the stock market dip as it has with the rate increases before. and i think this one was necessary. you had two quarters of economic contraction as you noted. mortgage rates are going sky high. could have a crumbling housing market. so we've seen some deflationary evidence. so i don't think really this rate hike this high was needed. so what is it going to do? it will damage the economy. could make any recession we may be in or about to be in even worse. you know, republicans, of course, no one wants to wish a bad economy on the country. but it's certainly -- >> neil: to your point, it's not a great environment. if you think about it, jessica, the environment where you have rates rising or the effect of what happens as those rates are rising, it's very tough for the party in power even if you go back to back in 1980 where you had a rising rate environmented. that not only got more republicans elected, it got that particular president thrown out, jimmy carter. with that as

look, i mean, jay powell is hawkish here. i mean, there's no question about it. you look at his demeanor coming out of jackson hole, certainly very straightforward and even yesterday, a lot of these press conferences we've come out of these press conferences with the markets interpreting jay powell as doveish and yesterday certainly that wasn't the case. i mean, his deme mo -- demeanort now is very straightforward. they have a dual mandate, focused on fighting inflation. there's a number of themes here. i'm going to run through them right now. one is front loading. the fed is front loading rate hikes. if you look at the summary of economic projectionses yesterday it bumped up 100 basis points for 2022. so he we've got another -- the chair said we've got another 100 to 125 basis points in 2022. now, the other theme is restrictive. the fed needs to go more here to fight inflation. they're at 3 to 3 and a quarter percent. he said he thought that was the lower end of restrictive which clearly means they're going to go further from here and the other theme is higher f

that's what jay powell says they want to avoid by moving now and moving hard. they will move on the totality of data, talking about whether or not they might do the 75 basis point hike on september 21. that would be the third one in a row if they do. but they are more focused on the u.s. cpi report on tuesday, expected to still be over 8% year-over-year, something that could be way too high for the fed. this isn't just chair powell who has gotten more hawkish. a member of the federal reserve for some time now, and he also said that a 75 basis point rate hike is possible, there is no doubt they will raise rates in september. again, everybody on board with this one. paul: the ecb moving 75 basis points as we mention here, but i had meeting, a lot of sense maybe that wouldn't go so high. what was the thinking in the end? kathleen: i think people were very much divided even though he said we could expect 75 after with the ecb official said at jackson hole a couple of weeks ago, very hawkish remarks. that thought 50 would be possible largely because the economy is s

a lot of people thought that jay powell was bluffing and i wonder if this is some vindication for him and for the fed? does it make you more inclined to say yes, we are heading into a recession? >> if we are going to talk economics, it does -- the more credibility jay powell has, the better off the u.s. dollar is. since his last comments, he said no matter how things might look like they are improving, i will stay stubborn with my interest rate hikes. the market heard those comments and thought, is inflation going to get better? that is good for everybody. we were up 5.5% going into today and we're starting over as if the month is starting all over again. i think jay powell has absolutely rebuilt some of the credibility that he lost being behind the curve year or so ago. if he is able to sustain that, we will have a stronger dollar. that is great news for all investors. emily: what do you think happens tomorrow, right? is this a bottom? do we have further to fall? or are we going to swing -- you know, do we swing back to the green and today is just a blip in reaction to this bad infla

a look ahead to the fed chair jay powell. >> u.s. inflation is horrific. >> it's a little warmer than expected and >> the price inflation remains high. very few hotspots. >> is going to not blink. >> 75 basis points. what we saw on tuesday. it puts the fed into overdrive. >> a hundred basis rises on the table. if they're in overdrive, they will make a policy mistake. >> central bankers do not understand money. >> they are feeling their way to how far they have to raise the number. >> tell me the last time the fed got it right. >> now they will have more reasons to go up. >> some of the voices we heard after that stunning inflation, and joining us to talk about that, what to expect, and we can head, the bank of america joins us right now. let's start off with how surprised you were, not only by the inflation, but by the market reaction? >> >>. thank you for having me. we were surprised by the inflation print. we thought inflation and services and goods were going to be on a downward trajectory. what we saw is that they both will remai

jay powell has it easy right now. she has the ukraine mess and the horror of that war there really at their doorstep dramatically affecting what is going on let me make two points that were made, first of all, the market has gone through -- you know the seven stages of grief, it has gone through seven stages of the fed, they're not going to do it, now this notion if they do it, it is okay shannon really squared the circle here in the following way. it is okay if they go to 4%, but it depends on what happens with the economy. and i'm answering this question because it really depends what happens in europe, and in china to a large extent. china is exporting deflation right now. europe may be exporting inflation right now. so here we are in the middle in the u.s., taking both those things the other thing i want to mention is, remember the old computer term wysiwyg. what you see is what you get, a huge advancement in computing, just so you know, these two fed folks who spoke, i think that's it before the inflation report

jay powell opened the door to a 100 basis point hike in july. he was asked the question and when he was asked about doing something bigger, here is what he said. he noted that i say we would not hesitate to make an even larger move than we did today if the committee were to conclude that is appropriate. do they think it is appropriate? we are not sure. it has left the door open to the latest data. latest data is hot, strong on inflation, strong on the labor market. people are going to be interested in the dots. they revised their forecast for where they think interest rates will go. wall street firms have been raising their terminal rate from 3.75 to 4.25. shery: and of course the uncertainty over how hawkish the fed will be as sent asian stocks done for five consecutive weeks in a week so busy with so many central-bank decisions. what will be driving investors this week? garfield what we --garfield: what we know about central banks and divergence from japan and the pboc and everyone else, especially the fed. the fed matters a lot more than all

there is plenty more in the game plan that could make life easier for jay powell and let's start with auto zone on monday look, the average car keeps getting older because we can't make enough new ones and the old cars need more replacement parts. i expect aenin bang up quarter i wonder if they see an end to the crucial beating inflation. whatever paul talks about bringing the pain to cool down the economy, he's speaking of wages, homes and cars. wages, homes and cars so auto zone can give us real insight. if the core companies could meet the demand, they're nowhere near doing so and used cars aren't coming down enough for powell to stop here. they're a point of pain and contention that makes powell have to be tough by the way, we're seeing a similar dynamic in housing later tonight, we're speaking to ted decker, the ceo. you should know the average age of the housing stock is around 40 years old both cars and homes are getting real long in the tooth they need care and that kind of care costs money on tuesday, one of the most despised stocks in the world owned by a lot of people is nv

do they confirm or negate the message jay powell, that hawkish message. stuart: they will be all over the place. lauren: it is noise. stuart: tea leaf watchers. fed watching drives me nuts. thanks, lauren. now this. >>> the stock market is way down. the economy is slowing. inflation stays high, not good. what's the administration doing? raising taxes and increasing spending. they have economic policy upside down. the cost of energy remains high. heating your home, paying your utility bills this winter will be a challenge. what is the administration doing? nothing. they won't okay pipelines. they're unwilling to drill for our own oil. they are trying to force us into expensive electric cars and they simply cannot admit the u.n.'s green targets and will not be reached. we all have to keep paying for their green dreams. two million migrants arrive at the border. they have overrun border towns. governors of texas and florida are busing some of them to sanctuary cities like new york and d.c. what is the administration doing? nothing to stop the flood. just nas

followed by jay powell's news conferenceat 2:30 p.m. on wednesday. markets are pricing in 80% chance the fed will hike rates by 75 basis points for a third straight time. according to the cme fed watch tool months ago, the investors were worried the fed was behind the curve and not fighting inflation aggressively enough and not raising interest rates high enough now some fear the fed will push the economy into recession by tightening policy too quickly. let's bring in peter boockvar. cnbc contributor peter, at the top of the hour, the top of the show, we spoke with vance howard. he expressed that concern that the fed is going to be the one, the entity that puts us into recession. first of all, are we in recession right now? second, if we are not in one, will the fed put us there? >> well, i think at best, the u.s. economy is flat lining. if we see modest growth in the third quarter. if you look at where third quarter gdp ends up relative to the fourth quarter of 2021, you problably see no growth will the fed put us in recession? they will when they t

how should investors interpret jay powell's fortitude with other fed speakers saying within the last 14 minutes, there's still a danger of overtightening. to our floor show, we have "the wall street journal's" nick dimaros known as fed whisperer and he's been on point when it comes to predicting the fed's path and getting inside his mind. nick, jay powell is crystal clear this morning and in the last half hour charles evans saying "overtightening is a concern once rates get to 3.5% range". what's with the mixed mesosangs here? who do we believe -- messages here? who do we believe? >> i'm not sure there's a mixed message. listen to charlie's full comments. he basically said he thinks the funds rate needs to get up to 4%. he thought that might happen next year and obviously others want to get there sooner and if you're data dependent, what does that mean? terms of getting there, and he thinks that the progress or lack thereof on inflation isn't going to change the destination. he said i still think we'll need to get to 4% and it's a matter of how fast. if you were to see softening in i

charles: unfortunately someone said this is exactly what jay powell wants to see. neil: i think you're right. >> i don't know part of the job description is being a sadomasochist. thanks a lot, neil. good afternoon, i'm charles payne, this is make being money. it is reaching a fever pitch, sending stocks way down, bond yields way up in fact to levels we haven't seen in years. we know 75s basis point, that is a given what will jay powell 3.0 say? what will his resolve be wit

powell, it's a negative for the economy and markets, the independents and that is important, i think president trump started to realize that after a while and democrats make political points but in the end the biden and administration i'm pretty sure will do the right thing. paul: there's some economists out there and analyst saying inflation is falling, money supply show up in money supply declined will show up as it always does so don't overdo the rate increase, on his writing that, what is your response to that? >> i think it's possible they will overdo it and they will if they stay in recession denial. the fact is we are in session right now, the labor market will probably turn if it matches the 70s and they need to keep high rates through the recession but if they continue especially the white house and fed in recession denial to just deny the data are weak and they can draw three-quarter points move as far as the eye can see and if they as the eye can see and if they did, i think it would be a big stick. if i were there now, would run for and look at the inflation rate and see