and will talk about powell's speech. tom: china's covid rhetoric seems to be moving in a more nuanced direction. beijing will allow some infected people to isolate at home, a significant shift that reflects pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to covid zero, which broke out over the weekend. let's bring in rachel chang who leads our consumer and health coverage in asia, how is the tone shifting, just put it in context for us. around isolation at home. >> the changes are incremental. china is going to move very cautiously and slowly on this reopening journey. in terms of the shift of rhetoric, it is very significant for those of us who have been watching this covid zero policy for three years, to hear china say omicron is not that deadly. to hear china say we are in a new phase of the pandemic, these are decisive moments. the chinese government is looking at reopening, but it will be a long, slow, widening causes. -- process. dani: after the weekend we have had a heavier police presenc

the stakes are high for jay powell. we are joined by david barrett coal goldman sachs cheap economist of what to expect from the fed reserve at the top of the hour area thank you for joining us. one of the most striking things after the cpi report seven point 1% is what we got and it is how the markets reacted. the peak policy expectations went from 5.3% in march up to 4.8% in may. what about that change adjusts the timing of these hikes? david: i think the inflation information has been encouraging. we have the fed taking the funds rate up to 5% and five point 5%. that is higher than the market is pricing. i think the nation news we saw out of the report is meaningful and will last but entire year. the reaction is warranted and recovery on the supply side generated decline in goods prices and last month's report. i think that story can last in 2023. i think we will eventually see alteration in shelter inflation as well. that will take a long time in the official data, but that is coming through clearly as alternative d

the fed put, powell is pushing against that. there has not been an easy be put in the same sense and so there is less pushback coming from the markets. guy: but, mike, if you think about it, everybody is terrified the ecb is going to blow up the market and the italian that story will become systemic again. that has always been the limiting factor on the ecb's ability to go too far. today we are going to that. she is potentially putting the btp market at risk. we are talking about qt coming to force next year, rates potentially going up to and around 4%. it has or is been understood that the ecb could not go too far because it has problems like italy and greece. mike: you remind me of the announcement on the airplane about in the event of a water landing the life preserver is too they believe they have a 12 that day can use to keep italy's head above water if something starts to go wrong. there policy could be directed just at one country. whereas the fed for the entire u.s. has to react. because markets are systemic across the u

are these markets reading jay powell correctly? we are joined by our global politics editor kathleen hays. kathleen: some of the reporting done here new york suggests that there was a big algorithmic force that got things going in the stock market. and that there were technical aspects. who knows for sure? because, jay powell, saying literally, we are going to do a 50 basis point rate hike instead of 75 in december, it was no surprise. one of the key phrases was what he -- when he made that statement. he -- it is what he said next and how he said it that showed the hawkish tilt to what he was saying today. >> the time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the december meeting. given our progress in signing policy, the timing is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation. kathleen: the timing is less important than how much we have to raise rates to control inflation. that is the message here. maybe they will do some smaller hikes. it looks lik

tom: two key factors, china and jay powell. not pushing back on listening of financial conditions yesterday. he suggested 50 basis points is in place, that's what the markets are pricing for december, but he reiterated he expects rates to be higher for longer. but so far, riproaring gains in the u.s. yesterday, the nasdaq up 4% and the s&p up more than 4%. and the handover from the u.s. to asia, another strong session, the spanish ibex up .7, cac 40 gaining 46 points, ftse 100 up .2%. let's see how things are reflecting across assets. we will meditate on what happened in asia. the benchmark currently getting 1.6%. the gains in november as we look now at the first day of december, have been significant for the asian session. in the mainland and hong kong that continues the reiteration from officials around the adjustment of the rhetoric of covid. infected citizens may stay home in beijing. yesterday it may be a little profit taking will come through in the session. a significant move down in yields yesterday, a pickup of around

katie: chair powell spoke about that. chair powell: first ardors, we need to raise interest rates to a level significantly -- interest rates to 2%. there is no doubt we have made substantial progress, raising our target range by 375 basis points since march. katie: powell himself said there is considerable uncertainty about what restrictive actually is. what is your best guess as to what that actually looks like and how close we are to restrictive territory? >> i agree we are already in restrictive territory. now is where the fine tuning comes. this is giving the fed a bit of coverage despite the fact we continue to see pretty good economic data, including the strong jobs report. their mandate is dual, focused on the inflation component. we are seeing some signs of inflation coming down. if we start to annualize some of the recent numbers, listed at a pce next year of about 3% which is not too far off the fed's mandate. as we look forward to this restrictive policy debate, we have to face the facts that some of the other

only powell, in all the speeches, only powell will loosen financial conditions. do you think yesterday he meant to tell the market or the financial conditions and he did not mean to do that, did he mess up yesterday >> so i expect, but i don't know, steve. i suspect he did not mean to do so there are two issues that played out that speak to why his remarks were so consequential. one, it's him, and then people pay a lot more attention to him and something we've seen over and over again, when he sticks to the script he tends to give either a balanced or a slightly hawkish message. when he's not sticking to the script and he starts answering questions he tends to go dove earn ish, and we started to do that yesterday. mohammed, have we moved into new territory, do you think? i love the s&p and we're at 4,080 now. we tested the lows and we had our bet and we got below 3600 and i don't know if we would call that a breach of the low and we thought 3200 or 3,000 and people still do on the s&p i'm wondering -- let's do the same exercise again. what's new now 4500 or 3500

nicole -- [inaudible] -- chairman powell. i wonder if you're paying close attention to a sector or even income level, have you factored inequality into your risk qualifications especially given -- [inaudible] of 2020? >> so the -- i would go back to the labor market that we had in 2018-'19, '20. what that looked like was wage increases for the people at lowest end of the income spectrum were the largest. the gaps between, between with racial groups and gender groups were at their smallest in recorded history. that's -- and all of that because of a tight labor market. a tight labor market which had inflation running just a tick below 2% in the economy growing right at its potential. so that seems like something that would be really good for the economy and for the country if we could get back to that. and so that's what all of us want to do. we want to get back to a long expansion where the labor market can remain strong over an extended period of time. that's a really good thing for workers in the economy. and we'd love to ge

what message does powell need to deliver today? bill: that we made a little bit of progress but there is more work ahead. goods inflation coming down. service inflation is still high. the labor market is extremely tight. highlighting those as things he's focusing on. the first piece is there is still a lot of work to do. alix: so still bullish on the economy and a soft landing but hawkish on the economy. can you do both? bill: he's going to talk about the fed hoping to achieve a soft landing with the gdp forecast for 23, 24, 25, i don't think he's going to show recession but he will make it clear there is more work to do on the part of the fed and it will take longer than what people expect. guy: why should the market believe what jay powell is saying today when it looks at the data to extrapolate this rapid drop in inflation? bill: the point of the fed is that the inflation isn't just about what's happening in the goods market. we knew that there had been increases over the last 18 months that were reversing and if we ignore them

that has just continued after powell's comments yesterday. now investors have been riding a tidal wave since 2020. according to the next guest, maybe could 2023 bring calmer waters we have kevin from ubs with us good morning >> good morning. >> i want to start off with the here and how and what we got from powell yesterday. the markets interpreted this as perhaps the beginning of the pivot the last couple months we have been waiting for. did you see anything new from yesterday that he hadn't said before >> i think he is confirming what investors have been expecting. i think if you go for what he said, almost perfect that is quite unusual. >> right in terms of what the market is expecting out of the next meeting, now it seems like people are really centered on 50 basis point hike is that fair >> i think it is certainty 100% >> what does that do to the dollar we have seen a pull back in the dollar >> the dollar has been pushed up with two major factors the fed hiking cycle and the russian invasion of ukraine. of course, which is bad for currenc

talk about jay powell. the markets are pulling back a little bit the initial reaction might be a good omen. last time they went into the question an answer period. what are you looking for this time? >> you have something secretly on your side here. all the tax law harvesting will end next week 10 days a lot of money will pile into the market. what i heard we're getting a soft landing went from 75 to 50. saw cpi coming back down. the chairman may be a little bit hawkish but certainly markets are signaling things are better. chance to buy stocks at end of the year, 4400, maybe 4450. charles: here's the reaction. we started the year. we're okay. we know the fed is behind we expected them to hike. we were able to deal with this big time. more recently the market saying please, please stop. what you do like going into 2023? everyone has the top picks. i don't know if you have a year-end target just yet. what are you looking for? >> 8 to 10% on the s&p 500. should end 4750 on s&p. charles: that is huge. that is

for jay powell. tom: very quickly, liz and sounders making a big deal about the challenging numbers. we look at the challengers and say, maybe it is not there. challenges like adp like i don't care, or do you see the challenge in job statistics a concern. michael: challengers, you do not care. they compile press releases. job cut announcements. those are overseas and the u.s.. jonathan: challenger exists on the adp, let's go, tom. tom: there are the numbers, they are grim. that is what we do, we talk to dolts like mike mckee. jonathan: more numbers in about an hour in 20 minutes. mike mckee will break that down. tom: the quality of what we do is celebrate lisa abramowicz, jon ferro and i on bloomberg surveillance. what we do is every day is our guests, it starts and ends with research capabilities at -- with edson reinhardt. -- vincent reinhart. important writings in the pandemic about the state of our economy. just a general question about a two hour conversation, do you buy the idea we are heading

did powell make a mistake and give us the wrong head fake? >> well, on the last part, yeah, i think powell made a mistake. he does not want the stock market to go up. he doesn't want you to feel richer because you'll spend more money and keep inflation up. that was not his goal. what we saw in the misreading of the payroll report is disappointment that the economy -- let me back up, charles, everybody is projecting a recession next year that . is the consensus forecast and first time we've seen that and everybody is saying that next year we'll have the recession. that is because if we have a recession and the fed will pivot and the market is interested in cheap money than it is in the companies you invest in making the profit. the payroll report was a disappointment and want to see less people getting jobs and that means the fed cut rates and more people get jobs, they won't cut rates and it's not about profit name. it's not about the health of the companies. it's about cheap money. they want interest rates to be cut. that's why wall street w

powell comes out and says more dovish things. bond prices move up. stock prices go ballistic in areas that were crushed in yields i said whenever we go into recession, do bond yields always fall and does inflation always come down? the answer is surprisingly no on both counts. most of the time it does again, the boogie man is inflation if inflation stays high it is obviously hard to know if that inflation number stays high that's what you have to key on which is why the number today remains extremely important. >> a lot of things are hard to know in the market this year we have pec comiepce coming out today. do you have a protection bond yields would top 5% this year and now that doesn't seem likely where do they go >> if you make me pick, i'll say we end up going higher again the only reason i say that is looking at history when you have seen inflation cpi above 5% and gone into recession, you still see generally speaking the yields move higher still they may not necessarily move a lot higher, but i look at the risk/reward when we build portfolios t

jay powell's doing everything he can to beat inflation. so the idea that the market would rally after his comments yesterday, they were rambunctious, his comments those were angry comments. done a sotovoce way but it should never have rallied. what we're seeing is the meltdown we should have had yesterday. there was some sort of bizarre today after the press conference as if traders were so busy shopping for the holidays that they forgot about the market until after the close. other than a few offhand comments about how we got a few decent inflation numbers powell could not have been more clear that he is not thrilled with what's going on here that he's not just trying to stabilize prices at these levels he wants to roll back the price increases from the last couple of years he's not looking for the consumer price index to come i lower than expected. he wants it just plain lower think absolute, not relative in his ideal world he wants you to go to the supermarket and see kind of the same prices we saw three years ago, or at least prices yo

powell's terminal rate is in his head? jonathan: we expect him to step up to something in the five handle for next year. tom: wonderful guest coming up, jeffrey rosenberg will be with us. governor crosson are in austan goolsbee as well as the jobs report. the terminal recall of the year was a bloomberg, anna wong was out front with the stunning call. i left her out of the room. yes, i was wrong. do you reaffirm the territory of 5% as the terminal rate? anna: our call has remained unchanged. we stay at 5%, with the upper end of 5% at the terminal rate. lisa: do you think the market has gotten ahead of the deceleration inflation? anna: i was going back and looking at forecast in the 70's and one of the interesting things i noticed is that when inflation was climbing, the fed and the markets were underestimating inflation and when inflation does come down, the fed in the market underestimate the rate of deceleration of inflation. given all the disinflationary forces we see in the world like china and inventory de-stalking i t

i'm sure powell thinks that's non-sense. could bitcoin be going up because so much of it was wiped out by sam bankman freed speculation must be crushed wherever it found including the 200 odd coins that are worthless. bottom line, let powell play for time we'll get lower numbers, not necessarily a real slowdown but lower numbers and more resumes chasing fewer jobs so powell had to do the obvious today and we do the obvious now that invest g ers get hurt aside from the oblivious ones that didn't see it coming. how about berry in florida, berry? >> caller: hi, jim, boo-yah. >> boo-yah what's going on? >> caller: dominion energy, buy, sell or hold >> i think you can hold dominion it's not been a great one, obviously. it's come down tremendously. it yields 4.5% but the problems there are not, i think, as ugly as the stock market would indicate i wish they would come on and walk us through it mark in wisconsin, mark? >> caller: dr. cramer, thank you for taking my call. >> not a problem >> caller: i got a bad stock here my average

ira jersey, how does chairman powell's world change with this shop report? ira: the fed has to be less balanced. over the past couple of months the federal reserve has become more balanced in that it is talking hochul surely but they don't want to go too far, chairman powell said that a few days ago. with the report like this you have to be concerned that you are going to get jeff rosenberg's wage price spiral. maybe you only go 50 basis points in december, i think that's still the base case. the market is starting to price that may be the fed is going to have to go 50 again in february. because you wind up at a faster than expected rate of increase, you will get more flattening in the yield curve and price for a harder landing. tom: how can you have a wage price spiral if after adjustment for inflation, people's paychecks are getting smaller every month? lisa: everyone is saying we need to get paid more or we will have an early retirement. there are structural issues leading to participant rates going lower in wages higher. the market feels all over the pla

you mentioned | jerome powell. in the last 24 jerome powell. in the last 2a hours we have had quite a rally in bonds and us equities off the back of some of the comments we heard on wednesday about potentially scaling back the pace of interest rate rises. but there are others that are pretty worried about what might be a looming recession in the us. where are you with that? do you think we will see a recession in the states next year?- will see a recession in the states next year? well, i think there is a _ states next year? well, i think there is a possibility _ states next year? well, i think there is a possibility of - states next year? well, i think there is a possibility of a - there is a possibility of a mild recession in the first half of the year, but there is also the probability we will get a soft landing and not get a recession at all. i think that bonds and equities are too optimistic about what chairman powell said. he implied he was going to lowerfederal powell said. he implied he was going to lower federal fund increases, interes

like most companies believe they can avoid a downturn as their competitors get hurt jay powell can't fire anyone directly but if you listened the other day, he's practically screaming at business people to stop hiring people that's how you create slack of the labor market that equate into price cuts. the timing is until the action makes sense. we'll see big layoffs after christmas because even grinch-like ceos have a heart when it comes to timing. the latest fed statement gives every ceo in america cover to rationalize and let a lot of people go. the fed is giving you what you need to do and that's why i want to start next week's game plan with the suggestion that we'll soon need to have a tote board for the layoffs because they're going to grow as business softens i think the epicenter of the layoffs will be in silicon valley with enterprise software being ground zero. software for big companies over the last decade, the hottest ticket in venture capital was companies whether an l analyzing data these outfits could make a lot of money as long as there is new companies to digitize an

stocks gain even as jay powell could signal a higher peak. flight risk sam bankman-fried is denied bail in the bahamas as he fights extradition to the u.s. the new ftx ceo says many clients don't get their money back. apple will allow rival sources to comply with eu rules. we had that really strong rally initially on the soft cpi data. a lot of that is given back and doesn't bode well for if any of that bear market rally can really come back and whether equities can rally in 2023. it all hinges on jay powell. will he give the doves some ammo. will the doves win out or will he err on the hawkish side. he still has a careful line to tread. of course not overdoing it because the soft cpi might give them some room at this moment. in 13 hours we have got a fit decision and less than 24 hours later we have the and boe. your s&p 500 future session is up .3%. futures almost 3%. only to end the day up less than 1%. morgan stanley says we are still nowhere close to pricing in china reopening in this market. a lot of hesitation as covid cases continue t

>> thank you, chairman powell. as you monitor wage growth and unemployment data i wonder if you're paying close attention to a sector and income levels how do you factor into your risk calculations especially given the recovery of 2020 >> so the -- i would go back to the labor market that we have in 2018, '19, and '20 wage increases at the lowest end were the largest the gaps betweenl grou and gender groups were at their smallest in recorded history and all of that because of a tight labor market which had inflation running a tick below 2% and the economy growing right at its potential so that seems something good for the economy and the country if we can get back to that. we want to get back to a long expansion where the labor market can remain strong over an extended period of time. that's a really good thing for workers in the economy that's what our goal is. in the near term, we have to use our tools to restore price stability. what we have to think about is the medium and longer term the country went through a

ifjerome powell is sustained way. if jerome powell is santa sustained way. ifjerome powell is santa claus, _ sustained way. ifjerome powell is santa claus, well, _ sustained way. ifjerome powell is santa claus, well, the - is santa claus, well, the smaller rate hike could be seen as a little christmas present, but the rest of the statement is pretty much a lump of coal in everyone's stocking. samira hussain, bbc news, washington. yes, indeed, we see that in reaction to the financial markets, in malaysia for example, they are all headed lower, the stock markets, currently. danny blanchflower served on the bank of england's monetary polic committee between 2006 and 2009 — he's now professor of economics at dartmouth college in new hampshire. good to have your the programme. first of all, half a percent increase in december, that was widely expected and priced in, but markets went happy at all with whatjerome powell had to say in the press conference.— powell had to say in the press conference. well, that's right. markets fully _ conference. well, that's ri

and jay powell, he still doesn't have home field advantage. i think we should take calls mike in minnesota, mike? >> caller: hey, mr. cramer. >> mike, what's happening. >> caller: boo-yah. >> boo-yah. >> caller: appreciate you taking my calls. >> jimmy chill says boo-yah back at you. >> caller: right on. my question is mdb. >> yeah. well, let me tell you something. this is one of those trading, this quarter was good. was it fantastic no, it was a good quarter. it wasn't the greatest quarter ever it was a good quarter but because we're so starved for good quarters when it comes to the software that we're talking about, the enterprise software, everybody was happy and the stock keeps going higher to me, i would to use the term i learned in school. >> sell, sell, sell. >> without a crash in crypto and sign of higher unemployment, this cpi reading has to be treated as a one off number. now on "mad" tonight maybe looking for a good utility will tell you the utility space will do the trick in the space for 2022 and black gold is on a slide but i'm j

fed chair powell didn't necessarily say anything different than we already knew. the expectation was already that they were going to slow the pace of rate hikes this month, 50 after four straight 75 basis point rate hikes and after that it is still in question and as you said if you look at the terminal rate, if you look at the pricing in the markets, the terminal rate in may of next year didn't budge so the expectation of where the federal reserve is going to end up did not change much, summer reading into the message fed chair powell didn't push back against the market rally we've seen this quarter so far, that he was a little more dovish than expected but let's be clear the federal reserve is raising interest rates, inflation is still high. next year we are likely going to see recession. there are bricks on the table here. ashley: thank you for joining us this morning and pointing out that i'm not going crazy, that's always a good thing, appreciate it. okay, lahren, you're looking at some of the movers. we are looking at big lots, big, and lots, big mess. laure

jay powell put the tough comments to the market that higher rates are coming. the market from the treasury perspective is not listening not getting the message yet. 10-year treasury yielding 3.49%. let's get to the take away from the fed decision with steve liesman. the question that remains today is will the market listen to what jay powell was saying that higher rates are coming? >> it doesn't seem like it today, becky as you know, the fed hiked 50 basis points yesterday stepping down from 75 still signals more rate hikes in the fight against inflation. the ongoing rate hikes would be appropriate. the median forecast for the funds rate next year rose to 5.15%. that was right in line with the forecast of the cnbc fed survey. that is up from 4.6% in the september outlook. it is also substantialsubstanti, increasingly above the market outlook for the year end of 2023 which is this morning at 4.38% that is a gap there. it is not a problem with the fed and market which is in agreement through the spring and the fed will slowd down to the right level hiking down to

we lost 1 million people to a virus we never heard of a few months before but jay powell knew how bad it was. march 3rd he slashed the funds rate to a range of 1% to 1.25% and 13 days later, can you imagine 13 days he cut another 100 basis points down to zero to 2.5% range but things kept getting worse and worse. they say a picture is worth 1,000 words. so why don't we do this? picture the covid crash, i'll put one up look at the stock of carnival, the cruise company we started freaking out about people getting sick on these ships so people stopped booking on them and then the government order the ships grounded suddenly, these heavily indebted b boats with tens of thousands of employees were teetering look at the decline. 54 down to nine. yeah, that's right this is just a single digit here that showed no real sign of a bottom because there was a genuine fear, a logical fear this would go under. they actually made sense that -- if it did. on march 23rd something happened jay powell pulled out the stops and issues a press release that seems mild mannered unlike him quote federal reserv

how hawkish is powell going to be? our question of the day. for another answer to the question, we bring in ira jersey. how tough is he going to have to talk tonight, i rock? ira: he's going to have to be tough in general. he had sounded dovish, or at least markets took him that way, last day of november when he spoke at the brookings institute. powell is going to have to press back against that but most importantly he's going to have to hit the market on the head with his sledgehammer saying we are going to keep rate at the peak for longer than you might think and the reason we are going to do that is everything is pretty strong right now and we don't want inflation expectations to become embedded and we are going to interest rates here longer than in previous cycles. alix: did you say natural language processing model? what is that? ira: it's a neural network that we run all of powell's statements through, through this model, which tells us whether or not he is hawkish or dovish based on empirical data. interestingly, that discussion he had

the pushback was clear from chair powell. the dot plot has been revised up to 5.1%, that is the view in terms of the terminal rate, above where markets are pricing. we look ahead today to the ecb and bank of england. we talk about 50 basis points from the european central bank, bringing the rate to around 2%, and the focus on that debate around quantitative tightening. at least what to do with that 5 trillion euro ecb balance sheet, particularly with the focus on peripherals, btp's and bunds. spreads have come in, there is comfort to what extent that will allow the ecb to make balance sheet adjustments. even as the size of hikes came down from 75 to 50 basis as expected, the s&p closed lower .6%. the dow was down .4% and nasdaq ended lower .8%, so the s&p back low for thousand. let's switch it over to the futures with an eye on the china data which was ugly. backward looking, yes, but china now rattling with rapid spread of infections. the data was weaker for retail sales. that took the wind out of sales of asian indexes, com

followed by jay powell's press conference. we talk about the two year and the tenure but five-year yields have come down by more than 80 basis points, most of percentage point from their peak earlier this year. we will speak about this with richard clara do and diane swonk a little bit later. tom: great shot of the 35-year-old? jonathan: that's what happens when you go to ac malan, you just get bitter. tom: can morocco to better than croatia? jonathan: a more competitive game and morocco really surprised me. let's talk about this market so let's start with chairman powell. let's start with what's talking about bitcoin. what do you expect from the chairman in the conference? >> i expect them to go 50 but i expect them to downplay rate hikes. cpi is coming down. we thought was transitory 1.5 years ago and he will say it's not transitory and was seen some of the pressure evaporate so he should set expectations lower for next year's rate hikes. tom: i look at the dialogue forward and it will be based on the data-dependent fit. wha

tom: fed chair jerome powell the u.s. central bank is not close to ending its anti-inflation campaign, hinting at ongoing increases in the coming year, in the wake of a 50 basis point hike policymakers projected rates will end next year at 5.1%. before being cut to 4.1% in 2024, a higher level than previously indicated. powell says the size of the next rate hike increase in february will depend on the data. china's economic activity worsened in november. amid widespread virus outbreaks and restrictions. retail sales contracted 5.9% from a year ago. worse than the 4% expected by economists. the jobless rate climbed to the highest level since may, when industrial output growth slowed to 2.2%. more disruption is likely in december as the government continues its abrupt exit from covid zero. u.s. regulators have taken the first step towards the most widespread revamp of stock trading in more than a decade. it is aimed at spurring better prices for investors, and directing more business to traditional exchanges. the sec laid o

i hope governor bailey sounds like jay powell did yesterday. for once he put in a terrific performance and he kept pounding away at the markets with the terminal rate, 5.1%. it will stay there for a while. do not look for cuts unless there is clear evidence inflation is heading back to 2%. we will still not president terminal funds rate above 5%. it comes down to inflation. i think markets are looking for central banks to react as they react when economies have gone into recession over the last two decades. when inflation was not a problem , inflation is a much bigger problem in europe. he made message to the u.k. is a small, open economy. the exchange rate has a big impact on inflation. much more show -- much more so than in the u.s. and the bank also have to navigate the troubles in the gilt market back in september forced the bank of england to begin easing again. the day after they confirmed they were going to start quantitative tightening the following week and they had to abandon those plans. jonathan: let's start with the nature of the d

could chair jay powell become even more hawkish in the new year? security concerns over ticktock continue to grow -- ticktock with the house banning the app on all employee devices. we'll break that down with lisa garber next. ♪. ♪. lauren: the house of representatives is banning tiktok from government phones over security concerns, but some lawmakers say it just doesn't go far enough. hillary vaughn has the very latest for us. hillary? >> reporter: lauren if you're a member ever congress or a congressional staffer and you have tiktok on your work phone you have to delete it immediately. this tiktok ban applies to government devices so it is not stopping lawmakers, congressional staff from using tiktok on their personal devices. some lawmakers want to do more to get tiktok off of u.s. smartphones. >> this is just a first step. they're using all kinds of technology to follow and trace us. biomet tricks, everything they can see on our phone and where we search, everything. it is really important that we keep the chinese communist party in check.

but i do think the easing matters, because powell needs the markets to restrict financial conditions to bring down inflation, at least that's the story he's been telling. >> all right steve liesman, we will see you soon thank you very much. let's turn to rick liesman -- rick santelli, sorry, rick rates are on the move ahead of the fed decision are you shaking your head? he's having a heart attack rick santelli is out at the cme with more. how's the set-up, rick >> you know, if you want to know what the fed's next move is, i'm not the guy to listen to if you want to know what the market's next move is, maybe i'm your guy and if we harken back to early november, we're talking about the same issue what do you want to predict? what the fed's going to do or how the market's going to react? i say the market reaction has been pretty darned clear all of these charts are from the last fed meeting look at two-year note yields basically we've gone from a zone of 470 to 420. we've shaved 50 basis points off, and right now we're hovering at three-month low yield closes and if we look at ten-year,

i am really concerned that chair powell is actions are neither -- that chair powell's actions are neither addressing the root causes of inflation that we're seeing today, namely supply chain solve a war in ukraine, corporate profiteering, and also it's going to potentially really harm millions of people who are really struggling with higher prices already. william: when you look at pain in the economy, who is that hurting the most? rakeen: it's always for the most vulnerable people in our economy who are hurting the most, right? if you're poor, and the price of essentials goes up, then you have less of your budget to pay your rent and to pay for other things that you need to pay. and that's that's always the case. so and similarly, you know, an aggressive rate hike campaign, like the one that chair powell is in the midst of would really, really harm some of the most marginalized workers in our economy. so, you know, economists such as larry summers have advocated for unemployment ratess high as 10% to combat inflation. when you unpack what that actually means, that means in unemployment r

i don't think jay powell wanted reaction he saw. i think algorithms are tone deaf to what the message is. what did we hear? rates continue to go up, maybe at a slower pace. they will continue to go up until they find a level they think that is the right level, right? although we think it is 5.25, jimmy bullard said could be as high as 7%. i think what happened yesterday was more of a automated algorithm tape. you could say we had a supply chain issue on the sell side. they all disappeared and buyers were forced to pay up haphazardly and we're looking at that today as the dow backs off what i think was an overreaction to jay powell's commentary yesterday. charles: looking ahead to this jobs report tomorrow what are you expecting? >> so look, we look at yesterday's adp report which was lighter than expected, 127,000 jobs created, restored, however you want to talk about it versus 200 day expected. i expect tomorrow's number could be a little bit light. actually the fed would welcome a lighter number than a stronger number, right? a li

powell and mr. spalter. michael: it is a lot of money going to to many places into many programs under different criteria and this is complex to manage. i think that another thing our members are frustrated by his areas that are -- are areas that are possibly unserved but there is federal commitment to serve those areas that have been provided through other programs. you have won money in ardoff but it shows up as unserved in maps and programs don't agonize existing service to areas and that leads to confusion and stranded investment. -- only to have another program parachute in on the same thing so one of the challenges for regulators is to ruthlessly attempt to harmonize criteria conditions across these programs and make sure all take cognizance of the other as they make their decision. sen. thune: frustrated is one word i would use and there are some others that i could throw out but are members known -- our members know about these efforts -- coming in and making it more challenging for them to deploy wh

we heard from jay powell on wednesday. he seemed pretty clear that we are going to get a 50 basis point hike this month. after the data we saw this morning, can the fed afford to slow down? >> yes. the bottom one with this report is it doesn't change anything from the fed's perspective. chairman powell's message still holds. they're going to a higher terminal rate than what they had expected in september. this report comes with a bit more hair on it than usual for several reasons. number one, the survey response rate was 49%. normally you get 65%-70% response rate. does that mean we will see larger than normal revisions in the second release? number two, again an average hourly earnings was 6%. that's partly due to two categories, transportation and warehousing and information services. transportation and warehousing, that was a five standard deviation gain on a monthly basis which begs the question, it also came with hours worked down. was there something going on there it also showed that employment was down in that cate

greg teicher powell. some of your cards been pretty explicit they cannot imagine rick attempting to 2023. that certainly not employed by the scc. some have some easing back from the exterior. what is your view of the likelihood of any rate cuts next year? what circumstances might make them plausible? >> our focus right now is really moving our policy stance that is restrictive enough to have inflation or 2% goal on time. and we think will have to maintain a restrictive extensive for some time. historical appearance question strongly and spiritually listing policy. i guess i would say it this way probably would not see his considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way. that is a test it would articulate. you are correct there are no rate cuts for 2023. >> steve matthews of bluebird. let me ask you about china the last few weeks china has abandoned covid policy and reopening pretty strongly. i'm wondering is your see that as disinflation or bec

are you holding some powder for tomorrow to see what powell says? >> i'm waiting for tomorrow because i thought the reaction this morning was completely out of control. the 7, 800 point surge in the dow, 150 point surge in the s&p, sitting there scratching my head, did cpi come in negative 7.2 the way algos reacted? they gave it all back. a little bit cautious going into tomorrow. you know me. i've been invested all along. i have not played the timing game. i'm in. i'm very strategic what we've been buying. i will wait until tomorrow. i want to hear the tone of his commentary. i want to make sure he doesn't change the narrative that it will be what he says it will be. charles: kenny, algos something to do with it, look at the chart, from the same bank of america survey all the fund managers, the relationship of equities to bonds. this is people complete out of stocks into bonds, completely out of stocks into bonds, completely out of stock into bonds. if the narrative changes these people have to buy stocks. there will be some sort of bums rush for l

what does powell say? lauren: the fed could scale back the pace of rate increases as soon as this month's meeting and likely going 50 instead of 75 as it's gone over the past four meetings but powell said inflation is way too high and sees no clear progress towards lowering it meaning the rate threshold might have to go even higher and stay higher so higher for longer. next panelist, tomorrow's jobs report on the 13th, we get inflation and day after the decision on what the fed will do in hiking rating. ashley: so many data to consider. lauren, thank you very much. look at futures points slightly higher today and adam johnson. good morning to you, adam. volatility plunging and looks like we could get a year-end rally and latest inflation data and the data the fed keeps an eye on, pce, personal consumption expenditure up 2% so a positive sign with regard to taming inflation. what's your take right now? >> yeah, excuse me. we saw people are spending money and we're not calling it goldy locks and there's no g

guy: powell is not there yet. higher prices apparently did not stop shoppers as we've seen today in the pce data. of the income line was pretty interesting as well. we get mastercard data as well which is worth focusing on as we come out of the black friday into cyber monday story. michelle meyer is the person you want to talk with. chief u.s. economist. great to catch up, americans have been outspending come that certainly demonstrated by your data. are they spending more and getting less, what is happening here right now. is it just inflation is boosting the overall headline numbers or consumer spending more? >> we are looking at nominal spending so part of that is there still some inflationary pressure out of their particularly for things that maybe aren't typically in your holiday shopping basket that are relevant. so there's still a good amount of inflation there. i also think it's that consumers are showing up in what we've seen in the data which is fascinating is so far it's been a little bit of a fits and

so much hinges on what powell has to say on wednesday. so far, the data is showing signs that inflation is cooling which investors are reading as an indication the fed will hease up on rate hikes it seems we are hanging on a thread waiting on what powell says and we're not really going to have any idea what direction the market will move until we get this behind us >> you know, erin, excuse me i was in europe last week where i came back sensing the people were in rough shape. nobody was optimistic. a lot of giant recession fears there given what they are facing we are so obsessed with inflation. i get it should the fed be focused on the possible recession in europe or here isn't that the point >> i think that is becoming more the forefront than in the past five to eight trading days where you see people being more reflective with the recession possibility versus inflation you showed the cpi chart we had five months coming down slowly i know it is not slow enough for some people. it is on the down trend. the real fear is can the fed naviga

red and green. >> jay powell, two words, jay powell, three words, four, and the fed, five. treasury >> how about one, grinch >> could be. could be the grinch or i'm expecting a lump of coal and a switch that's what my mother always threatened me with treasury yields take a quick look, 3.50 we heard katie stockton say still may see yields rise. you wouldn't think so we're at a core of 6% i don't know where fed funds would have to go to handle a core of six unless it comes down quickly. >>> we've got the latest on the collapse of ftx. former ceo sam bankman-fried denied bail in the bahamas who cited a heightened flight risk the judge said bankman-fried should be remanded to custody until early february bankman-fried said he would fight extradition to the united states the bail was denied hours after u.s. prosecutors filed eight charges against bankman-fried including wire fraud and illegal campaign contributions misappropriating funds to his hedge fund alameda research. the ftc has also filed suit. there were ftx revelations on capitol hill the firm's ceo john ray answered qu

i mean jay powell look at this , folks. this is amazing. so 2022, look at this right here this is the fed raising rates 4% now its gone higher than that just once in the past that was in 1999 but that was over a 20- month period. this is in just four months look how aggressive this is. i think jay powell really is the kind of guy he doesn't want to go to the fed locker room and have someone call him a wimp so let's bring in will intelligence llc ceo and chief strategist danielle dimartino booth. you know, danielle, i mean, we've had this conversation before, but powell's comments at brookings i thought was a sign and i just talked about this with quincy krosby that maybe he might be willing to pause, the softish comments, so many people are saying no that's misinterpreted. where do you think jay powell is right now in this pledge never to pause? >> i think jay powell, every time he goes back to the locker room, comes back out and says hurry up, offense, and that's not something that is sustainable or that this economy can withstand for a pr

maybe jay powell will want to pushback. mliv editor mark cudmore using the technicals i should say to support his macro thesis. there is a redhead crossing right now. just pointing to what is unfolding in china in terms of the disconnect between the rampant pace of infections, particularly in the capital and how officials are reacting. this is china deciding against postponing a key economic possible -- economic policy meeting. setting out their agenda in terms of how to address the economy. they had reported it would be postponed because of the rapid increase in infections. now china saying they have decided against postponing that key economic policymaking meeting. but real questions to what extent officials have a grip on how they exit covid zero. this is a reminder of the u-turns happening out of beijing. when it comes to inflation, we will be talking about the softer cpi out of the u.s., it was also lower in the u.k. but in spain, rising modestly above the prelim, 6.6% vs. 6.7%. francine: the latest u.s. cpi reading sh

after covid hit in 2020, jay powell moved to limit the damage many other countries didn't. in the financial crisis, the fed did almost nothing so powell was worried about the omicron variant. he couldn't have known it would be more benign than expected what were you doing this time last year? i was fearing the benign omicron because i thought it was far worse. i think powell is central banker and good leader chinese government has been a joke on covid. they told their people it was apparently dangerous, so they had to stay home then they said they had great vaccines and refused to use the more effective mrna vaccines they insisted on locking down huge swaths of the country because they said you can die from this thing. and then they what they said you know what? it's fine. and the chinese government unleashed their population and said it's all good now they're getting covid left and right because they never bothered to get the flu vaccines i think jay powell is a genius, he knows what he's doing the biggest problem is russia started a war they can't win but they can cause s

will powell stick with it to get with inflation to control inflation? or will that political pressure get to him? >> he will stick with it for now. because that last mile will be harder and we will start to see more strain on the economy. >> and those unemployment rises in particular but when we come back to president bidens posted political come back look at the biggest storieget s of 2022. i can't! i'm just telling everyone! hey! use your vision benefits before they expire. visionworks. see the difference. there's always a fresh deal on the subway app. like this one! 50% off?! that deal's so good we don't even need an eight-time all-star to tell you about it. wait what? get it before it's gone on the subway app! my dad was a hard worker. he used to do side jobs installing windows, charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four to five-hundred bucks. he just didn't wanna do that. he was proud of the price he was charging. ♪ my dad instilled in me, always put the people before the money. be proud of offering a good

i don't see jerome powell changing his tune at all. he is been consistent, especially since the jackson hole conference where he said that they need to be aggressive in frontloading their interest rate hikes. they need to get ahead of inflation. i'm sure he will lead the market with the message that 50 basis points will be done today. there will be another to come at the first meeting of 2023. then, there is a reasonable chance that they will stay with the 5% short term interest rate for some time. right in the way through next year. the market has gotten ahead of itself. he will remind people today that he is determined to get inflation back down towards the 2% area. it will take a while. to get it down from 7% to 2% will not happen overnight. he will need to keep short-term rates high for some period of time. the messaging, will be fairly consistent with that. the market will get a shock. that is partly why equities reverse fairly quickly from the highs yesterday. though they ended up on the day,the rally was short-lived. you will se