WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en Style: ::cue(c.colorCCCCCC) { color: rgb(204,204,204); } ::cue(c.colorE5E5E5) { color: rgb(229,229,229); } ## 00:00:01.939 --> 00:00:08.059 align:start position:0% as<00:00:03.680> we<00:00:04.680> move<00:00:04.920> on<00:00:05.250> to<00:00:05.759> our<00:00:06.060> third<00:00:06.990> topic<00:00:07.620> right 00:00:08.059 --> 00:00:08.069 align:start position:0% as we move on to our third topic right 00:00:08.069 --> 00:00:10.190 align:start position:0% as we move on to our third topic right now<00:00:08.099> we<00:00:08.340> are<00:00:08.730> in<00:00:09.210> the<00:00:09.389> early<00:00:09.420> stages<00:00:09.900> of<00:00:10.050> a 00:00:10.190 --> 00:00:10.200 align:start position:0% now we are in the early stages of a 00:00:10.200 --> 00:00:12.020 align:start position:0% now we are in the early stages of a trade<00:00:10.469> war<00:00:10.740> with<00:00:10.769> China<00:00:11.340> that<00:00:11.429> didn't<00:00:11.759> exist 00:00:12.020 --> 00:00:12.030 align:start position:0% trade war with China that didn't exist 00:00:12.030 --> 00:00:14.539 align:start position:0% trade war with China that didn't exist two<00:00:12.389> years<00:00:12.660> ago<00:00:13.019> the<00:00:13.530> two<00:00:13.710> presidents<00:00:14.219> Trump 00:00:14.539 --> 00:00:14.549 align:start position:0% two years ago the two presidents Trump 00:00:14.549 --> 00:00:16.580 align:start position:0% two years ago the two presidents Trump and<00:00:14.730> she<00:00:14.940> say<00:00:15.210> they<00:00:15.360> are<00:00:15.480> trying<00:00:15.839> to<00:00:16.020> reach<00:00:16.350> a 00:00:16.580 --> 00:00:16.590 align:start position:0% and she say they are trying to reach a 00:00:16.590 --> 00:00:18.529 align:start position:0% and she say they are trying to reach a deal<00:00:16.859> to<00:00:17.039> call<00:00:17.190> the<00:00:17.310> whole<00:00:17.460> thing<00:00:17.490> off<00:00:17.880> the 00:00:18.529 --> 00:00:18.539 align:start position:0% deal to call the whole thing off the 00:00:18.539 --> 00:00:20.390 align:start position:0% deal to call the whole thing off the president<00:00:18.900> as<00:00:19.140> we<00:00:19.380> took<00:00:19.560> the<00:00:19.710> stage<00:00:19.949> tonight 00:00:20.390 --> 00:00:20.400 align:start position:0% president as we took the stage tonight 00:00:20.400 --> 00:00:21.740 align:start position:0% president as we took the stage tonight the<00:00:20.580> President<00:00:20.910> of<00:00:20.970> the<00:00:21.000> United<00:00:21.180> States<00:00:21.300> as<00:00:21.630> we 00:00:21.740 --> 00:00:21.750 align:start position:0% the President of the United States as we 00:00:21.750 --> 00:00:23.509 align:start position:0% the President of the United States as we took<00:00:21.869> the<00:00:21.990> stage<00:00:22.170> tonight<00:00:22.490> indicating<00:00:23.490> that 00:00:23.509 --> 00:00:23.519 align:start position:0% took the stage tonight indicating that 00:00:23.519 --> 00:00:26.230 align:start position:0% took the stage tonight indicating that he<00:00:24.240> is<00:00:24.269> pushing<00:00:24.900> off<00:00:25.080> a<00:00:25.109> March<00:00:25.439> 1st<00:00:25.710> deadline 00:00:26.230 --> 00:00:26.240 align:start position:0% he is pushing off a March 1st deadline 00:00:26.240 --> 00:00:29.060 align:start position:0% he is pushing off a March 1st deadline it's<00:00:27.240> not<00:00:27.539> done<00:00:27.840> yet<00:00:27.900> which<00:00:28.320> leaves<00:00:28.590> open<00:00:28.890> the 00:00:29.060 --> 00:00:29.070 align:start position:0% it's not done yet which leaves open the 00:00:29.070 --> 00:00:30.950 align:start position:0% it's not done yet which leaves open the question<00:00:29.189> if<00:00:29.699> this<00:00:29.849> trade<00:00:30.090> war<00:00:30.300> continues 00:00:30.950 --> 00:00:30.960 align:start position:0% question if this trade war continues 00:00:30.960 --> 00:00:33.680 align:start position:0% question if this trade war continues who<00:00:31.260> wins<00:00:31.560> our<00:00:32.160> resolution<00:00:32.910> is<00:00:33.090> framed<00:00:33.450> this 00:00:33.680 --> 00:00:33.690 align:start position:0% who wins our resolution is framed this 00:00:33.690 --> 00:00:37.520 align:start position:0% who wins our resolution is framed this way<00:00:33.930> the<00:00:34.530> US<00:00:34.860> and<00:00:35.160> China<00:00:35.360> will<00:00:36.360> both<00:00:36.600> lose<00:00:37.110> the 00:00:37.520 --> 00:00:37.530 align:start position:0% way the US and China will both lose the 00:00:37.530 --> 00:00:39.740 align:start position:0% way the US and China will both lose the trade<00:00:37.770> war<00:00:38.010> how<00:00:38.579> our<00:00:38.790> first<00:00:39.090> debater<00:00:39.450> will<00:00:39.629> be 00:00:39.740 --> 00:00:39.750 align:start position:0% trade war how our first debater will be 00:00:39.750 --> 00:00:43.069 align:start position:0% trade war how our first debater will be Parag<00:00:40.110> Khanna<00:00:40.430> on<00:00:41.430> this<00:00:42.239> resolution<00:00:42.450> how<00:00:43.020> do 00:00:43.069 --> 00:00:43.079 align:start position:0% Parag Khanna on this resolution how do 00:00:43.079 --> 00:00:45.049 align:start position:0% Parag Khanna on this resolution how do you<00:00:43.230> declare<00:00:43.379> yes<00:00:43.770> or<00:00:43.950> no<00:00:44.129> I<00:00:44.309> declare<00:00:44.610> yes<00:00:44.789> you 00:00:45.049 --> 00:00:45.059 align:start position:0% you declare yes or no I declare yes you 00:00:45.059 --> 00:00:47.420 align:start position:0% you declare yes or no I declare yes you have<00:00:45.239> 90<00:00:45.539> seconds<00:00:45.920> let's<00:00:46.920> start<00:00:47.160> with<00:00:47.309> the 00:00:47.420 --> 00:00:47.430 align:start position:0% have 90 seconds let's start with the 00:00:47.430 --> 00:00:49.279 align:start position:0% have 90 seconds let's start with the ways<00:00:47.610> in<00:00:47.850> which<00:00:47.879> China<00:00:48.360> will<00:00:48.660> be<00:00:48.809> a<00:00:48.840> relative 00:00:49.279 --> 00:00:49.289 align:start position:0% ways in which China will be a relative 00:00:49.289 --> 00:00:50.660 align:start position:0% ways in which China will be a relative loser<00:00:49.469> and<00:00:49.649> for<00:00:49.770> both<00:00:49.890> China<00:00:50.160> in<00:00:50.280> the<00:00:50.340> US<00:00:50.520> the 00:00:50.660 --> 00:00:50.670 align:start position:0% loser and for both China in the US the 00:00:50.670 --> 00:00:51.950 align:start position:0% loser and for both China in the US the further<00:00:50.879> you<00:00:51.059> look<00:00:51.270> out<00:00:51.390> in<00:00:51.539> the<00:00:51.600> future<00:00:51.660> I 00:00:51.950 --> 00:00:51.960 align:start position:0% further you look out in the future I 00:00:51.960 --> 00:00:53.180 align:start position:0% further you look out in the future I think<00:00:52.020> the<00:00:52.320> further<00:00:52.559> this<00:00:52.739> will<00:00:52.920> become 00:00:53.180 --> 00:00:53.190 align:start position:0% think the further this will become 00:00:53.190 --> 00:00:55.369 align:start position:0% think the further this will become apparent<00:00:53.460> some<00:00:54.030> major<00:00:54.300> shifts<00:00:54.719> and<00:00:55.020> trading 00:00:55.369 --> 00:00:55.379 align:start position:0% apparent some major shifts and trading 00:00:55.379 --> 00:00:57.080 align:start position:0% apparent some major shifts and trading patterns<00:00:55.770> really<00:00:55.920> predate<00:00:56.460> the<00:00:56.640> trade<00:00:56.850> war 00:00:57.080 --> 00:00:57.090 align:start position:0% patterns really predate the trade war 00:00:57.090 --> 00:00:58.790 align:start position:0% patterns really predate the trade war such<00:00:57.360> as<00:00:57.390> the<00:00:57.600> diffusion<00:00:57.840> of<00:00:58.140> supply<00:00:58.440> chains 00:00:58.790 --> 00:00:58.800 align:start position:0% such as the diffusion of supply chains 00:00:58.800 --> 00:01:00.529 align:start position:0% such as the diffusion of supply chains out<00:00:58.980> of<00:00:59.190> China<00:00:59.460> a<00:00:59.760> lot<00:01:00.059> of<00:01:00.120> it<00:01:00.210> has<00:01:00.300> to<00:01:00.420> do<00:01:00.510> with 00:01:00.529 --> 00:01:00.539 align:start position:0% out of China a lot of it has to do with 00:01:00.539 --> 00:01:01.880 align:start position:0% out of China a lot of it has to do with the<00:01:00.690> fact<00:01:00.870> that<00:01:00.930> Chinese<00:01:01.320> wages<00:01:01.680> have<00:01:01.800> been 00:01:01.880 --> 00:01:01.890 align:start position:0% the fact that Chinese wages have been 00:01:01.890 --> 00:01:03.619 align:start position:0% the fact that Chinese wages have been rising<00:01:02.309> so<00:01:02.489> multinational<00:01:03.210> companies 00:01:03.619 --> 00:01:03.629 align:start position:0% rising so multinational companies 00:01:03.629 --> 00:01:05.780 align:start position:0% rising so multinational companies whether<00:01:03.840> American<00:01:04.439> or<00:01:04.619> Japanese<00:01:04.650> or<00:01:05.100> European 00:01:05.780 --> 00:01:05.790 align:start position:0% whether American or Japanese or European 00:01:05.790 --> 00:01:08.060 align:start position:0% whether American or Japanese or European have<00:01:06.180> been<00:01:06.390> diverting<00:01:06.810> their<00:01:07.500> labor<00:01:07.950> and 00:01:08.060 --> 00:01:08.070 align:start position:0% have been diverting their labor and 00:01:08.070 --> 00:01:09.649 align:start position:0% have been diverting their labor and their<00:01:08.340> manufacturing<00:01:09.000> work<00:01:09.119> out<00:01:09.270> of<00:01:09.420> China 00:01:09.649 --> 00:01:09.659 align:start position:0% their manufacturing work out of China 00:01:09.659 --> 00:01:11.420 align:start position:0% their manufacturing work out of China into<00:01:09.780> Southeast<00:01:10.200> Asia<00:01:10.380> for<00:01:10.590> quite<00:01:10.830> some<00:01:11.040> time 00:01:11.420 --> 00:01:11.430 align:start position:0% into Southeast Asia for quite some time 00:01:11.430 --> 00:01:13.730 align:start position:0% into Southeast Asia for quite some time Foxconn<00:01:12.299> for<00:01:12.600> example<00:01:12.990> has<00:01:13.080> done<00:01:13.260> so<00:01:13.500> as<00:01:13.710> well 00:01:13.730 --> 00:01:13.740 align:start position:0% Foxconn for example has done so as well 00:01:13.740 --> 00:01:15.890 align:start position:0% Foxconn for example has done so as well India<00:01:14.640> last<00:01:14.939> year<00:01:15.180> got<00:01:15.360> more<00:01:15.600> foreign 00:01:15.890 --> 00:01:15.900 align:start position:0% India last year got more foreign 00:01:15.900 --> 00:01:18.109 align:start position:0% India last year got more foreign investment<00:01:15.960> than<00:01:16.530> China<00:01:16.770> did<00:01:17.040> Southeast<00:01:17.939> Asia 00:01:18.109 --> 00:01:18.119 align:start position:0% investment than China did Southeast Asia 00:01:18.119 --> 00:01:20.179 align:start position:0% investment than China did Southeast Asia got<00:01:18.509> more<00:01:18.720> foreign<00:01:18.990> investment<00:01:19.049> than<00:01:19.680> then 00:01:20.179 --> 00:01:20.189 align:start position:0% got more foreign investment than then 00:01:20.189 --> 00:01:22.100 align:start position:0% got more foreign investment than then China<00:01:20.460> or<00:01:20.670> has<00:01:20.820> for<00:01:21.090> the<00:01:21.150> last<00:01:21.270> five<00:01:21.540> years<00:01:21.570> and 00:01:22.100 --> 00:01:22.110 align:start position:0% China or has for the last five years and 00:01:22.110 --> 00:01:23.420 align:start position:0% China or has for the last five years and now<00:01:22.530> of<00:01:22.710> course<00:01:22.770> China's<00:01:23.280> industrial 00:01:23.420 --> 00:01:23.430 align:start position:0% now of course China's industrial 00:01:23.430 --> 00:01:25.580 align:start position:0% now of course China's industrial policies<00:01:24.240> alienating<00:01:24.900> a<00:01:24.960> lot<00:01:25.049> of<00:01:25.200> countries 00:01:25.580 --> 00:01:25.590 align:start position:0% policies alienating a lot of countries 00:01:25.590 --> 00:01:27.920 align:start position:0% policies alienating a lot of countries suspicion<00:01:26.400> of<00:01:26.520> Chava<00:01:26.880> of<00:01:27.270> Chinese<00:01:27.570> companies 00:01:27.920 --> 00:01:27.930 align:start position:0% suspicion of Chava of Chinese companies 00:01:27.930 --> 00:01:30.350 align:start position:0% suspicion of Chava of Chinese companies like<00:01:28.080> Huawei<00:01:28.439> as<00:01:28.590> well<00:01:28.829> so<00:01:29.280> China<00:01:29.970> is<00:01:30.060> sort<00:01:30.299> of 00:01:30.350 --> 00:01:30.360 align:start position:0% like Huawei as well so China is sort of 00:01:30.360 --> 00:01:31.700 align:start position:0% like Huawei as well so China is sort of being<00:01:30.540> brought<00:01:30.750> back<00:01:30.930> to<00:01:30.990> earth<00:01:31.290> in<00:01:31.560> that 00:01:31.700 --> 00:01:31.710 align:start position:0% being brought back to earth in that 00:01:31.710 --> 00:01:33.890 align:start position:0% being brought back to earth in that sense<00:01:31.979> through<00:01:32.369> this<00:01:32.549> trade<00:01:32.850> war<00:01:33.060> now<00:01:33.570> for<00:01:33.840> the 00:01:33.890 --> 00:01:33.900 align:start position:0% sense through this trade war now for the 00:01:33.900 --> 00:01:35.960 align:start position:0% sense through this trade war now for the US<00:01:34.140> the<00:01:34.350> case<00:01:34.530> is<00:01:34.740> even<00:01:34.950> more<00:01:35.220> clear-cut<00:01:35.579> in 00:01:35.960 --> 00:01:35.970 align:start position:0% US the case is even more clear-cut in 00:01:35.970 --> 00:01:37.490 align:start position:0% US the case is even more clear-cut in terms<00:01:36.150> of<00:01:36.270> how<00:01:36.360> it's<00:01:36.509> going<00:01:36.659> to<00:01:36.750> lose<00:01:36.900> because 00:01:37.490 --> 00:01:37.500 align:start position:0% terms of how it's going to lose because 00:01:37.500 --> 00:01:39.679 align:start position:0% terms of how it's going to lose because most<00:01:37.770> of<00:01:37.920> what<00:01:38.070> the<00:01:38.159> US<00:01:38.369> exports<00:01:38.939> to<00:01:39.090> China<00:01:39.360> can 00:01:39.679 --> 00:01:39.689 align:start position:0% most of what the US exports to China can 00:01:39.689 --> 00:01:42.350 align:start position:0% most of what the US exports to China can be<00:01:39.720> substituted<00:01:40.380> by<00:01:40.890> others<00:01:41.579> whether<00:01:42.090> it's 00:01:42.350 --> 00:01:42.360 align:start position:0% be substituted by others whether it's 00:01:42.360 --> 00:01:44.179 align:start position:0% be substituted by others whether it's semiconductors<00:01:43.110> that<00:01:43.140> china<00:01:43.710> is<00:01:43.890> going<00:01:44.009> to 00:01:44.179 --> 00:01:44.189 align:start position:0% semiconductors that china is going to 00:01:44.189 --> 00:01:46.300 align:start position:0% semiconductors that china is going to get<00:01:44.340> from<00:01:44.610> Taiwan<00:01:45.060> or<00:01:45.329> South<00:01:45.509> Korea<00:01:45.840> or<00:01:45.990> Japan 00:01:46.300 --> 00:01:46.310 align:start position:0% get from Taiwan or South Korea or Japan 00:01:46.310 --> 00:01:48.410 align:start position:0% get from Taiwan or South Korea or Japan soybeans<00:01:47.310> that<00:01:47.490> it<00:01:47.670> will<00:01:47.790> get<00:01:47.939> that<00:01:48.149> it<00:01:48.270> gets 00:01:48.410 --> 00:01:48.420 align:start position:0% soybeans that it will get that it gets 00:01:48.420 --> 00:01:50.149 align:start position:0% soybeans that it will get that it gets from<00:01:48.570> Brazil<00:01:49.020> and<00:01:49.259> Argentina<00:01:49.290> and<00:01:49.860> even<00:01:50.070> now 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not be buying<00:02:02.700> American<00:02:03.149> products<00:02:03.479> so<00:02:03.570> just 00:02:03.770 --> 00:02:03.780 align:start position:0% buying American products so just 00:02:03.780 --> 00:02:05.440 align:start position:0% buying American products so just remember<00:02:03.960> that<00:02:04.229> America's<00:02:04.680> allies 00:02:05.440 --> 00:02:05.450 align:start position:0% remember that America's allies 00:02:05.450 --> 00:02:07.429 align:start position:0% remember that America's allies geopolitically<00:02:06.450> are<00:02:06.600> not<00:02:06.750> necessary<00:02:07.350> I 00:02:07.429 --> 00:02:07.439 align:start position:0% geopolitically are not necessary I 00:02:07.439 --> 00:02:09.199 align:start position:0% geopolitically are not necessary I cannot<00:02:07.680> our<00:02:07.829> allies<00:02:08.369> geo<00:02:08.610> economically 00:02:09.199 --> 00:02:09.209 align:start position:0% cannot our allies geo economically 00:02:09.209 --> 00:02:10.609 align:start position:0% cannot our allies geo economically because<00:02:09.450> actually<00:02:09.899> trying<00:02:10.080> to<00:02:10.140> undercut<00:02:10.410> us 00:02:10.609 --> 00:02:10.619 align:start position:0% because actually trying to undercut us 00:02:10.619 --> 00:02:12.559 align:start position:0% because actually trying to undercut us and<00:02:10.979> do<00:02:11.430> more<00:02:11.610> business<00:02:12.000> with<00:02:12.150> Asian 00:02:12.559 --> 00:02:12.569 align:start position:0% and do more business with Asian 00:02:12.569 --> 00:02:13.240 align:start position:0% and do more business with Asian countries<00:02:12.930> including 00:02:13.240 --> 00:02:13.250 align:start position:0% countries including 00:02:13.250 --> 00:02:15.700 align:start position:0% countries including China<00:02:13.550> and<00:02:13.760> substitute<00:02:14.540> us<00:02:14.720> in<00:02:15.050> those<00:02:15.410> markets 00:02:15.700 --> 00:02:15.710 align:start position:0% China and substitute us in those markets 00:02:15.710 --> 00:02:17.860 align:start position:0% China and substitute us in those markets so<00:02:16.010> the<00:02:16.130> US<00:02:16.310> will<00:02:16.460> also<00:02:16.850> be<00:02:17.000> a<00:02:17.030> loser<00:02:17.300> from<00:02:17.720> the 00:02:17.860 --> 00:02:17.870 align:start position:0% so the US will also be a loser from the 00:02:17.870 --> 00:02:19.930 align:start position:0% so the US will also be a loser from the trade<00:02:18.050> war<00:02:18.230> Thank<00:02:18.950> You<00:02:19.070> Parag<00:02:19.340> Khanna<00:02:19.370> our 00:02:19.930 --> 00:02:19.940 align:start position:0% trade war Thank You Parag Khanna our 00:02:19.940 --> 00:02:21.580 align:start position:0% trade war Thank You Parag Khanna our next<00:02:20.240> speaker<00:02:20.510> on<00:02:20.660> this<00:02:20.810> resolution<00:02:20.990> the<00:02:21.320> US 00:02:21.580 --> 00:02:21.590 align:start position:0% next speaker on this resolution the US 00:02:21.590 --> 00:02:23.230 align:start position:0% next speaker on this resolution the US and<00:02:21.770> China<00:02:21.800> will<00:02:22.100> both<00:02:22.280> lose<00:02:22.550> the<00:02:22.760> trade<00:02:23.000> war 00:02:23.230 --> 00:02:23.240 align:start position:0% and China will both lose the trade war 00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:25.120 align:start position:0% and China will both lose the trade war Susan<00:02:23.750> Thornton<00:02:24.110> how<00:02:24.260> do<00:02:24.320> you<00:02:24.440> declare<00:02:24.560> yes<00:02:24.950> or 00:02:25.120 --> 00:02:25.130 align:start position:0% Susan Thornton how do you declare yes or 00:02:25.130 --> 00:02:29.560 align:start position:0% Susan Thornton how do you declare yes or no<00:02:25.280> yes<00:02:26.240> yes<00:02:27.790> I'm<00:02:28.790> gonna<00:02:29.060> stop<00:02:29.360> being 00:02:29.560 --> 00:02:29.570 align:start position:0% no yes yes I'm gonna stop being 00:02:29.570 --> 00:02:31.210 align:start position:0% no yes yes I'm gonna stop being contrarian<00:02:30.050> now<00:02:30.440> I'm<00:02:30.620> gonna<00:02:30.740> go<00:02:30.950> with<00:02:31.100> the 00:02:31.210 --> 00:02:31.220 align:start position:0% contrarian now I'm gonna go with the 00:02:31.220 --> 00:02:34.930 align:start position:0% contrarian now I'm gonna go with the flow<00:02:32.620> but<00:02:33.620> no<00:02:33.770> I<00:02:33.800> think<00:02:33.950> both<00:02:34.370> countries<00:02:34.610> are 00:02:34.930 --> 00:02:34.940 align:start position:0% flow but no I think both countries are 00:02:34.940 --> 00:02:37.390 align:start position:0% flow but no I think both countries are already<00:02:35.060> losing<00:02:35.720> the<00:02:35.840> trade<00:02:36.050> war<00:02:36.320> I<00:02:36.920> think 00:02:37.390 --> 00:02:37.400 align:start position:0% already losing the trade war I think 00:02:37.400 --> 00:02:41.530 align:start position:0% already losing the trade war I think we've<00:02:37.970> seen<00:02:38.530> diminishment<00:02:39.530> of<00:02:40.390> exports<00:02:41.390> in 00:02:41.530 --> 00:02:41.540 align:start position:0% we've seen diminishment of exports in 00:02:41.540 --> 00:02:43.320 align:start position:0% we've seen diminishment of exports in both<00:02:41.750> directions<00:02:42.170> of<00:02:42.530> course<00:02:42.680> much<00:02:43.040> more 00:02:43.320 --> 00:02:43.330 align:start position:0% both directions of course much more 00:02:43.330 --> 00:02:46.090 align:start position:0% both directions of course much more bigger<00:02:44.330> drop<00:02:44.690> on<00:02:44.930> the<00:02:45.050> Chinese<00:02:45.440> exports<00:02:45.950> to 00:02:46.090 --> 00:02:46.100 align:start position:0% bigger drop on the Chinese exports to 00:02:46.100 --> 00:02:48.130 align:start position:0% bigger drop on the Chinese exports to the<00:02:46.190> US<00:02:46.520> and<00:02:46.760> from<00:02:46.910> the<00:02:47.060> US<00:02:47.300> exports<00:02:47.810> to<00:02:47.900> China 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saying I do 00:02:56.780 --> 00:02:58.630 align:start position:0% market sellers as Prague was saying I do think<00:02:57.200> they'll<00:02:57.410> on<00:02:57.530> a<00:02:57.560> more<00:02:57.770> optimistic<00:02:58.250> note 00:02:58.630 --> 00:02:58.640 align:start position:0% think they'll on a more optimistic note 00:02:58.640 --> 00:03:01.600 align:start position:0% think they'll on a more optimistic note that<00:02:58.970> if<00:02:59.300> we<00:02:59.600> can<00:02:59.930> pull<00:03:00.230> back<00:03:00.530> from<00:03:00.920> this<00:03:01.220> trade 00:03:01.600 --> 00:03:01.610 align:start position:0% that if we can pull back from this trade 00:03:01.610 --> 00:03:03.850 align:start position:0% that if we can pull back from this trade war<00:03:01.880> and<00:03:02.030> get<00:03:02.240> some<00:03:02.510> kind<00:03:02.780> of<00:03:02.870> a<00:03:02.990> deal<00:03:03.200> there<00:03:03.830> is 00:03:03.850 --> 00:03:03.860 align:start position:0% war and get some kind of a deal there is 00:03:03.860 --> 00:03:07.750 align:start position:0% war and get some kind of a deal there is a<00:03:04.040> possibility<00:03:04.910> that<00:03:05.270> both<00:03:05.900> sides<00:03:06.230> can<00:03:06.560> win<00:03:06.830> as 00:03:07.750 --> 00:03:07.760 align:start position:0% a possibility that both sides can win as 00:03:07.760 --> 00:03:10.440 align:start position:0% a possibility that both sides can win as I've<00:03:08.240> already<00:03:08.420> mentioned<00:03:08.600> during<00:03:09.080> tonight's 00:03:10.440 --> 00:03:10.450 align:start position:0% I've already mentioned during tonight's 00:03:10.450 --> 00:03:13.630 align:start position:0% I've already mentioned during tonight's discussions<00:03:11.450> China<00:03:12.440> is<00:03:12.709> in<00:03:12.890> a<00:03:13.010> period<00:03:13.280> of 00:03:13.630 --> 00:03:13.640 align:start position:0% discussions China is in a period of 00:03:13.640 --> 00:03:16.870 align:start position:0% discussions China is in a period of retrenchment<00:03:14.060> of<00:03:14.570> from<00:03:15.050> reform<00:03:15.440> and<00:03:15.860> it<00:03:16.370> and 00:03:16.870 --> 00:03:16.880 align:start position:0% retrenchment of from reform and it and 00:03:16.880 --> 00:03:19.120 align:start position:0% retrenchment of from reform and it and most<00:03:17.239> Chinese<00:03:17.720> they<00:03:18.019> there's<00:03:18.590> a<00:03:18.650> joke<00:03:18.950> going 00:03:19.120 --> 00:03:19.130 align:start position:0% most Chinese they there's a joke going 00:03:19.130 --> 00:03:21.130 align:start position:0% most Chinese they there's a joke going around<00:03:19.400> in<00:03:19.580> China<00:03:19.850> now<00:03:20.120> who<00:03:20.360> are<00:03:20.510> two<00:03:20.720> old<00:03:20.900> guys 00:03:21.130 --> 00:03:21.140 align:start position:0% around in China now who are two old guys 00:03:21.140 --> 00:03:23.140 align:start position:0% around in China now who are two old guys who<00:03:21.440> are<00:03:21.530> gonna<00:03:21.650> push<00:03:22.010> China<00:03:22.340> into<00:03:22.700> the<00:03:22.730> modern 00:03:23.140 --> 00:03:23.150 align:start position:0% who are gonna push China into the modern 00:03:23.150 --> 00:03:25.990 align:start position:0% who are gonna push China into the modern era<00:03:23.330> dung<00:03:24.019> shopping<00:03:24.560> and<00:03:24.800> Donald<00:03:25.190> Trump<00:03:25.489> they 00:03:25.990 --> 00:03:26.000 align:start position:0% era dung shopping and Donald Trump they 00:03:26.000 --> 00:03:27.850 align:start position:0% era dung shopping and Donald Trump they want<00:03:26.239> Donald<00:03:26.570> Trump<00:03:26.660> to<00:03:26.840> push<00:03:27.170> China<00:03:27.410> as<00:03:27.680> hard 00:03:27.850 --> 00:03:27.860 align:start position:0% want Donald Trump to push China as hard 00:03:27.860 --> 00:03:30.970 align:start position:0% want Donald Trump to push China as hard as<00:03:27.980> possible<00:03:28.190> to<00:03:28.900> reinvigorate<00:03:29.900> its<00:03:30.350> economic 00:03:30.970 --> 00:03:30.980 align:start position:0% as possible to reinvigorate its economic 00:03:30.980 --> 00:03:32.590 align:start position:0% as possible to reinvigorate its economic reform<00:03:31.400> program<00:03:31.459> because<00:03:32.030> they<00:03:32.209> know<00:03:32.420> that 00:03:32.590 --> 00:03:32.600 align:start position:0% reform program because they know that 00:03:32.600 --> 00:03:34.840 align:start position:0% reform program because they know that the<00:03:32.720> Chinese<00:03:32.959> economy<00:03:33.230> needs<00:03:33.950> to<00:03:34.250> move<00:03:34.489> to<00:03:34.730> the 00:03:34.840 --> 00:03:34.850 align:start position:0% the Chinese economy needs to move to the 00:03:34.850 --> 00:03:37.540 align:start position:0% the Chinese economy needs to move to the next<00:03:35.060> stage<00:03:35.390> of<00:03:35.780> opening<00:03:36.620> up<00:03:36.800> in<00:03:37.070> order<00:03:37.459> to 00:03:37.540 --> 00:03:37.550 align:start position:0% next stage of opening up in order to 00:03:37.550 --> 00:03:39.640 align:start position:0% next stage of opening up in order to make<00:03:38.030> that<00:03:38.239> leap<00:03:38.510> out<00:03:38.750> of<00:03:38.930> the<00:03:39.050> middle<00:03:39.290> income 00:03:39.640 --> 00:03:39.650 align:start position:0% make that leap out of the middle income 00:03:39.650 --> 00:03:41.110 align:start position:0% make that leap out of the middle income trap<00:03:39.860> that<00:03:40.160> they're<00:03:40.340> so<00:03:40.550> worried<00:03:40.880> about<00:03:40.970> being 00:03:41.110 --> 00:03:41.120 align:start position:0% trap that they're so worried about being 00:03:41.120 --> 00:03:44.770 align:start position:0% trap that they're so worried about being stuck<00:03:41.690> in<00:03:41.959> I<00:03:42.799> think<00:03:43.190> you<00:03:43.850> know<00:03:44.299> the<00:03:44.450> u.s. 00:03:44.770 --> 00:03:44.780 align:start position:0% stuck in I think you know the u.s. 00:03:44.780 --> 00:03:47.229 align:start position:0% stuck in I think you know the u.s. obviously<00:03:45.190> would<00:03:46.190> benefit<00:03:46.640> if<00:03:46.790> we<00:03:46.880> could<00:03:47.060> get 00:03:47.229 --> 00:03:47.239 align:start position:0% obviously would benefit if we could get 00:03:47.239 --> 00:03:49.509 align:start position:0% obviously would benefit if we could get a<00:03:47.269> deal<00:03:47.540> with<00:03:47.810> China<00:03:48.170> that<00:03:48.709> would<00:03:48.950> open<00:03:49.220> up 00:03:49.509 --> 00:03:49.519 align:start position:0% a deal with China that would open up 00:03:49.519 --> 00:03:51.789 align:start position:0% a deal with China that would open up some<00:03:49.820> of<00:03:49.970> these<00:03:50.120> areas<00:03:50.450> of<00:03:50.750> China's<00:03:51.140> market<00:03:51.590> to 00:03:51.789 --> 00:03:51.799 align:start position:0% some of these areas of China's market to 00:03:51.799 --> 00:03:54.160 align:start position:0% some of these areas of China's market to US<00:03:52.190> companies<00:03:52.730> and<00:03:53.030> I<00:03:53.330> think<00:03:53.360> the<00:03:53.690> rest<00:03:53.870> of<00:03:54.080> the 00:03:54.160 --> 00:03:54.170 align:start position:0% US companies and I think the rest of the 00:03:54.170 --> 00:03:56.380 align:start position:0% US companies and I think the rest of the globe<00:03:54.410> would<00:03:54.650> also<00:03:54.799> benefit<00:03:55.489> from<00:03:55.820> some<00:03:56.150> kind 00:03:56.380 --> 00:03:56.390 align:start position:0% globe would also benefit from some kind 00:03:56.390 --> 00:03:58.360 align:start position:0% globe would also benefit from some kind of<00:03:56.510> a<00:03:56.600> deal<00:03:56.840> that<00:03:57.049> we<00:03:57.140> could<00:03:57.350> get<00:03:57.560> as<00:03:57.739> long<00:03:58.160> as 00:03:58.360 --> 00:03:58.370 align:start position:0% of a deal that we could get as long as 00:03:58.370 --> 00:04:00.460 align:start position:0% of a deal that we could get as long as we<00:03:58.519> get<00:03:58.760> some<00:03:59.090> progress<00:03:59.570> on<00:03:59.750> these<00:03:59.989> structural 00:04:00.460 --> 00:04:00.470 align:start position:0% we get some progress on these structural 00:04:00.470 --> 00:04:03.310 align:start position:0% we get some progress on these structural issues<00:04:00.950> Thank<00:04:01.430> You<00:04:01.519> Susan<00:04:01.730> Thornton<00:04:02.209> on<00:04:02.959> this 00:04:03.310 --> 00:04:03.320 align:start position:0% issues Thank You Susan Thornton on this 00:04:03.320 --> 00:04:03.910 align:start position:0% issues Thank You Susan Thornton on this resolution 00:04:03.910 --> 00:04:03.920 align:start position:0% resolution 00:04:03.920 --> 00:04:06.370 align:start position:0% resolution Ian<00:04:04.190> Bremmer<00:04:04.549> do<00:04:04.760> you<00:04:04.820> declare<00:04:04.940> yes<00:04:05.269> or<00:04:05.510> no<00:04:05.660> I'm 00:04:06.370 --> 00:04:06.380 align:start position:0% Ian Bremmer do you declare yes or no I'm 00:04:06.380 --> 00:04:09.370 align:start position:0% Ian Bremmer do you declare yes or no I'm gonna<00:04:06.560> declare<00:04:06.890> no<00:04:07.630> this<00:04:08.630> is<00:04:08.840> the<00:04:09.140> most 00:04:09.370 --> 00:04:09.380 align:start position:0% gonna declare no this is the most 00:04:09.380 --> 00:04:11.140 align:start position:0% gonna declare no this is the most complicated<00:04:09.860> I<00:04:10.340> think<00:04:10.640> of<00:04:10.790> the<00:04:10.910> three 00:04:11.140 --> 00:04:11.150 align:start position:0% complicated I think of the three 00:04:11.150 --> 00:04:13.539 align:start position:0% complicated I think of the three questions<00:04:11.720> it's<00:04:12.680> the<00:04:12.799> one<00:04:12.920> you'd<00:04:13.100> want<00:04:13.130> to<00:04:13.400> say 00:04:13.539 --> 00:04:13.549 align:start position:0% questions it's the one you'd want to say 00:04:13.549 --> 00:04:15.370 align:start position:0% questions it's the one you'd want to say it's<00:04:13.790> complicated<00:04:14.510> in<00:04:14.600> the<00:04:14.690> Facebook<00:04:15.110> kind<00:04:15.320> of 00:04:15.370 --> 00:04:15.380 align:start position:0% it's complicated in the Facebook kind of 00:04:15.380 --> 00:04:19.420 align:start position:0% it's complicated in the Facebook kind of way<00:04:15.530> in<00:04:15.680> response<00:04:16.870> I'm<00:04:17.870> gonna<00:04:18.140> say<00:04:18.350> no<00:04:18.560> in<00:04:19.190> both 00:04:19.420 --> 00:04:19.430 align:start position:0% way in response I'm gonna say no in both 00:04:19.430 --> 00:04:21.159 align:start position:0% way in response I'm gonna say no in both the<00:04:19.609> cute<00:04:19.880> way<00:04:20.060> in<00:04:20.239> a<00:04:20.330> real<00:04:20.510> way<00:04:20.630> the<00:04:20.780> cute<00:04:21.019> way 00:04:21.159 --> 00:04:21.169 align:start position:0% the cute way in a real way the cute way 00:04:21.169 --> 00:04:22.779 align:start position:0% the cute way in a real way the cute way I'm<00:04:21.530> gonna<00:04:21.770> say<00:04:21.919> no<00:04:22.070> because<00:04:22.280> it's<00:04:22.700> not 00:04:22.779 --> 00:04:22.789 align:start position:0% I'm gonna say no because it's not 00:04:22.789 --> 00:04:25.240 align:start position:0% I'm gonna say no because it's not happening<00:04:23.210> I<00:04:23.660> don't<00:04:24.200> think<00:04:24.440> there's<00:04:24.830> going<00:04:25.070> to 00:04:25.240 --> 00:04:25.250 align:start position:0% happening I don't think there's going to 00:04:25.250 --> 00:04:25.990 align:start position:0% happening I don't think there's going to be 00:04:25.990 --> 00:04:26.000 align:start position:0% be 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:28.690 align:start position:0% be a<00:04:26.030> trade<00:04:26.360> war<00:04:26.570> I<00:04:26.630> feel<00:04:26.930> very<00:04:27.170> strongly<00:04:27.700> that 00:04:28.690 --> 00:04:28.700 align:start position:0% a trade war I feel very strongly that 00:04:28.700 --> 00:04:30.640 align:start position:0% a trade war I feel very strongly that the<00:04:29.030> Americans<00:04:29.570> and<00:04:29.750> Chinese<00:04:29.930> for<00:04:30.380> different 00:04:30.640 --> 00:04:30.650 align:start position:0% the Americans and Chinese for different 00:04:30.650 --> 00:04:32.380 align:start position:0% the Americans and Chinese for different but<00:04:30.770> overlapping<00:04:31.190> reasons<00:04:31.700> are<00:04:31.880> going<00:04:32.150> to 00:04:32.380 --> 00:04:32.390 align:start position:0% but overlapping reasons are going to 00:04:32.390 --> 00:04:34.000 align:start position:0% but overlapping reasons are going to back<00:04:32.690> down 00:04:34.000 --> 00:04:34.010 align:start position:0% back down 00:04:34.010 --> 00:04:35.920 align:start position:0% back down Trump<00:04:34.550> because<00:04:34.940> he<00:04:34.970> doesn't<00:04:35.630> want<00:04:35.780> it<00:04:35.810> to 00:04:35.920 --> 00:04:35.930 align:start position:0% Trump because he doesn't want it to 00:04:35.930 --> 00:04:37.450 align:start position:0% Trump because he doesn't want it to affect<00:04:36.200> the<00:04:36.320> American<00:04:36.500> markets<00:04:37.220> and<00:04:37.400> it 00:04:37.450 --> 00:04:37.460 align:start position:0% affect the American markets and it 00:04:37.460 --> 00:04:38.980 align:start position:0% affect the American markets and it hasn't<00:04:37.820> really<00:04:38.000> except<00:04:38.450> for<00:04:38.600> a<00:04:38.630> little<00:04:38.780> scare 00:04:38.980 --> 00:04:38.990 align:start position:0% hasn't really except for a little scare 00:04:38.990 --> 00:04:41.350 align:start position:0% hasn't really except for a little scare in<00:04:39.140> December<00:04:39.590> and<00:04:40.550> because<00:04:40.850> he<00:04:40.940> wants<00:04:41.150> to<00:04:41.210> show 00:04:41.350 --> 00:04:41.360 align:start position:0% in December and because he wants to show 00:04:41.360 --> 00:04:42.910 align:start position:0% in December and because he wants to show that<00:04:41.390> he<00:04:41.540> personally<00:04:41.840> can<00:04:42.200> do<00:04:42.290> a<00:04:42.320> big<00:04:42.500> deal<00:04:42.650> and 00:04:42.910 --> 00:04:42.920 align:start position:0% that he personally can do a big deal and 00:04:42.920 --> 00:04:44.980 align:start position:0% that he personally can do a big deal and the<00:04:43.040> Chinese<00:04:43.430> because<00:04:43.970> actually<00:04:44.570> their 00:04:44.980 --> 00:04:44.990 align:start position:0% the Chinese because actually their 00:04:44.990 --> 00:04:46.960 align:start position:0% the Chinese because actually their economies<00:04:45.500> gotten<00:04:45.830> a<00:04:46.070> little<00:04:46.370> bit<00:04:46.580> more 00:04:46.960 --> 00:04:46.970 align:start position:0% economies gotten a little bit more 00:04:46.970 --> 00:04:49.360 align:start position:0% economies gotten a little bit more vulnerable<00:04:47.150> and<00:04:47.900> Xi<00:04:48.350> Jinping<00:04:48.410> doesn't<00:04:49.130> want 00:04:49.360 --> 00:04:49.370 align:start position:0% vulnerable and Xi Jinping doesn't want 00:04:49.370 --> 00:04:51.070 align:start position:0% vulnerable and Xi Jinping doesn't want this<00:04:49.550> fight<00:04:50.030> right<00:04:50.750> now 00:04:51.070 --> 00:04:51.080 align:start position:0% this fight right now 00:04:51.080 --> 00:04:53.980 align:start position:0% this fight right now um<00:04:51.740> and<00:04:52.130> broadly<00:04:52.850> speaking<00:04:52.880> I<00:04:53.510> think<00:04:53.570> that<00:04:53.900> if 00:04:53.980 --> 00:04:53.990 align:start position:0% um and broadly speaking I think that if 00:04:53.990 --> 00:04:55.390 align:start position:0% um and broadly speaking I think that if we<00:04:54.080> look<00:04:54.260> at<00:04:54.380> the<00:04:54.500> damage<00:04:54.860> that's<00:04:55.160> been<00:04:55.340> done 00:04:55.390 --> 00:04:55.400 align:start position:0% we look at the damage that's been done 00:04:55.400 --> 00:04:58.690 align:start position:0% we look at the damage that's been done so<00:04:55.820> far<00:04:56.260> you<00:04:57.260> talk<00:04:57.590> about<00:04:57.920> still<00:04:58.250> a<00:04:58.280> broad 00:04:58.690 --> 00:04:58.700 align:start position:0% so far you talk about still a broad 00:04:58.700 --> 00:05:00.370 align:start position:0% so far you talk about still a broad environment<00:04:59.330> where<00:04:59.480> the<00:04:59.660> US<00:04:59.900> and<00:04:59.930> Chinese 00:05:00.370 --> 00:05:00.380 align:start position:0% environment where the US and Chinese 00:05:00.380 --> 00:05:02.170 align:start position:0% environment where the US and Chinese economies<00:05:00.500> were<00:05:01.130> very<00:05:01.490> interdependent<00:05:01.850> they 00:05:02.170 --> 00:05:02.180 align:start position:0% economies were very interdependent they 00:05:02.180 --> 00:05:04.540 align:start position:0% economies were very interdependent they still<00:05:02.360> are<00:05:02.540> China's<00:05:03.530> becoming<00:05:03.710> gradually<00:05:04.190> a 00:05:04.540 --> 00:05:04.550 align:start position:0% still are China's becoming gradually a 00:05:04.550 --> 00:05:06.550 align:start position:0% still are China's becoming gradually a larger<00:05:04.940> economy<00:05:05.450> than<00:05:05.600> the<00:05:05.630> US<00:05:06.020> but<00:05:06.320> still 00:05:06.550 --> 00:05:06.560 align:start position:0% larger economy than the US but still 00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:08.920 align:start position:0% larger economy than the US but still very<00:05:06.590> far<00:05:07.400> behind<00:05:07.610> on<00:05:07.970> a<00:05:08.030> per<00:05:08.180> capita<00:05:08.210> basis 00:05:08.920 --> 00:05:08.930 align:start position:0% very far behind on a per capita basis 00:05:08.930 --> 00:05:13.290 align:start position:0% very far behind on a per capita basis that's<00:05:09.500> still<00:05:09.890> the<00:05:10.070> case<00:05:10.100> and<00:05:11.320> going<00:05:12.320> forward 00:05:13.290 --> 00:05:13.300 align:start position:0% that's still the case and going forward 00:05:13.300 --> 00:05:16.690 align:start position:0% that's still the case and going forward yes<00:05:14.300> we're<00:05:15.050> seeing<00:05:15.380> growth<00:05:15.680> slowed<00:05:16.190> in<00:05:16.490> both 00:05:16.690 --> 00:05:16.700 align:start position:0% yes we're seeing growth slowed in both 00:05:16.700 --> 00:05:19.120 align:start position:0% yes we're seeing growth slowed in both China<00:05:17.150> and<00:05:17.270> the<00:05:17.360> United<00:05:17.810> States<00:05:17.840> in<00:05:18.560> China 00:05:19.120 --> 00:05:19.130 align:start position:0% China and the United States in China 00:05:19.130 --> 00:05:21.490 align:start position:0% China and the United States in China that's<00:05:19.580> because<00:05:20.120> of<00:05:20.360> debt<00:05:20.720> deleveraging<00:05:21.050> in 00:05:21.490 --> 00:05:21.500 align:start position:0% that's because of debt deleveraging in 00:05:21.500 --> 00:05:23.380 align:start position:0% that's because of debt deleveraging in the<00:05:21.560> United<00:05:21.919> States<00:05:22.220> that's<00:05:22.669> because<00:05:23.180> of<00:05:23.330> the 00:05:23.380 --> 00:05:23.390 align:start position:0% the United States that's because of the 00:05:23.390 --> 00:05:25.600 align:start position:0% the United States that's because of the Fed<00:05:23.630> and<00:05:23.660> the<00:05:23.900> end<00:05:24.230> of<00:05:24.440> the<00:05:24.500> tax<00:05:24.740> cuts<00:05:25.040> stimulus 00:05:25.600 --> 00:05:25.610 align:start position:0% Fed and the end of the tax cuts stimulus 00:05:25.610 --> 00:05:27.820 align:start position:0% Fed and the end of the tax cuts stimulus so<00:05:25.820> I<00:05:26.030> mean<00:05:26.480> if<00:05:26.690> you<00:05:26.840> ask<00:05:26.990> me<00:05:27.140> to<00:05:27.260> really<00:05:27.530> make<00:05:27.650> a 00:05:27.820 --> 00:05:27.830 align:start position:0% so I mean if you ask me to really make a 00:05:27.830 --> 00:05:29.500 align:start position:0% so I mean if you ask me to really make a strong<00:05:28.070> call<00:05:28.460> here<00:05:28.700> we<00:05:28.820> both<00:05:29.000> gonna<00:05:29.180> get<00:05:29.330> hurt 00:05:29.500 --> 00:05:29.510 align:start position:0% strong call here we both gonna get hurt 00:05:29.510 --> 00:05:31.510 align:start position:0% strong call here we both gonna get hurt by<00:05:29.660> this<00:05:29.690> trade<00:05:30.020> war<00:05:30.229> I<00:05:30.470> think<00:05:30.710> the<00:05:31.070> answer<00:05:31.370> at 00:05:31.510 --> 00:05:31.520 align:start position:0% by this trade war I think the answer at 00:05:31.520 --> 00:05:32.830 align:start position:0% by this trade war I think the answer at the<00:05:31.640> margins<00:05:32.060> I<00:05:32.150> think<00:05:32.360> I'd<00:05:32.450> say<00:05:32.600> yes<00:05:32.630> but 00:05:32.830 --> 00:05:32.840 align:start position:0% the margins I think I'd say yes but 00:05:32.840 --> 00:05:35.800 align:start position:0% the margins I think I'd say yes but overall<00:05:33.470> I<00:05:33.620> think<00:05:34.010> I'd<00:05:34.130> say<00:05:34.280> no<00:05:34.600> thank<00:05:35.600> me<00:05:35.690> and 00:05:35.800 --> 00:05:35.810 align:start position:0% overall I think I'd say no thank me and 00:05:35.810 --> 00:05:37.120 align:start position:0% overall I think I'd say no thank me and Bremer<00:05:36.020> our<00:05:36.440> next<00:05:36.710> speaker<00:05:36.950> on<00:05:37.040> the 00:05:37.120 --> 00:05:37.130 align:start position:0% Bremer our next speaker on the 00:05:37.130 --> 00:05:39.250 align:start position:0% Bremer our next speaker on the resolution<00:05:37.729> the<00:05:38.210> US<00:05:38.450> and<00:05:38.660> China<00:05:38.690> will<00:05:39.020> both 00:05:39.250 --> 00:05:39.260 align:start position:0% resolution the US and China will both 00:05:39.260 --> 00:05:41.830 align:start position:0% resolution the US and China will both lose<00:05:39.530> the<00:05:39.740> trade<00:05:39.979> war<00:05:40.250> Michele<00:05:41.060> Flournoy<00:05:41.240> do 00:05:41.830 --> 00:05:41.840 align:start position:0% lose the trade war Michele Flournoy do 00:05:41.840 --> 00:05:45.010 align:start position:0% lose the trade war Michele Flournoy do you<00:05:41.900> declare<00:05:41.990> yes<00:05:42.290> or<00:05:42.470> no<00:05:42.590> declare<00:05:43.520> yes<00:05:44.020> given 00:05:45.010 --> 00:05:45.020 align:start position:0% you declare yes or no declare yes given 00:05:45.020 --> 00:05:46.990 align:start position:0% you declare yes or no declare yes given the<00:05:45.260> interconnectedness<00:05:46.130> of<00:05:46.220> the<00:05:46.490> two 00:05:46.990 --> 00:05:47.000 align:start position:0% the interconnectedness of the two 00:05:47.000 --> 00:05:49.180 align:start position:0% the interconnectedness of the two economies<00:05:47.600> it's<00:05:47.810> really<00:05:48.110> not<00:05:48.260> possible<00:05:48.320> for 00:05:49.180 --> 00:05:49.190 align:start position:0% economies it's really not possible for 00:05:49.190 --> 00:05:52.300 align:start position:0% economies it's really not possible for either<00:05:49.430> country<00:05:50.270> to<00:05:50.660> win<00:05:50.960> a<00:05:51.320> trade<00:05:51.710> war<00:05:51.979> should 00:05:52.300 --> 00:05:52.310 align:start position:0% either country to win a trade war should 00:05:52.310 --> 00:05:54.520 align:start position:0% either country to win a trade war should it<00:05:52.430> continued<00:05:52.940> restrictions<00:05:53.690> on<00:05:53.990> trade<00:05:54.260> end 00:05:54.520 --> 00:05:54.530 align:start position:0% it continued restrictions on trade end 00:05:54.530 --> 00:05:57.280 align:start position:0% it continued restrictions on trade end up<00:05:54.740> resulting<00:05:55.640> in<00:05:56.000> increased<00:05:56.419> prices<00:05:56.960> and 00:05:57.280 --> 00:05:57.290 align:start position:0% up resulting in increased prices and 00:05:57.290 --> 00:06:00.070 align:start position:0% up resulting in increased prices and decreased<00:05:57.800> exports<00:05:58.460> for<00:05:58.669> both<00:05:59.270> countries<00:05:59.570> the 00:06:00.070 --> 00:06:00.080 align:start position:0% decreased exports for both countries the 00:06:00.080 --> 00:06:02.560 align:start position:0% decreased exports for both countries the trade<00:06:00.620> war<00:06:00.950> is<00:06:01.160> already<00:06:01.640> hurting<00:06:01.880> both<00:06:02.240> in 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:02.570 align:start position:0% trade war is already hurting both in 00:06:02.570 --> 00:06:06.730 align:start position:0% trade war is already hurting both in China<00:06:02.840> in<00:06:03.560> 2018<00:06:04.460> we<00:06:04.640> saw<00:06:04.880> the<00:06:04.940> lowest<00:06:05.740> Chinese 00:06:06.730 --> 00:06:06.740 align:start position:0% China in 2018 we saw the lowest Chinese 00:06:06.740 --> 00:06:09.520 align:start position:0% China in 2018 we saw the lowest Chinese GDP<00:06:07.340> growth<00:06:07.640> that<00:06:08.510> we've<00:06:08.660> seen<00:06:08.900> in<00:06:09.020> quite<00:06:09.229> in 00:06:09.520 --> 00:06:09.530 align:start position:0% GDP growth that we've seen in quite in 00:06:09.530 --> 00:06:11.800 align:start position:0% GDP growth that we've seen in quite in in<00:06:09.860> a<00:06:09.950> number<00:06:10.220> of<00:06:10.340> years<00:06:10.550> really<00:06:10.729> since<00:06:10.880> 1990 00:06:11.800 --> 00:06:11.810 align:start position:0% in a number of years really since 1990 00:06:11.810 --> 00:06:13.750 align:start position:0% in a number of years really since 1990 now<00:06:11.990> the<00:06:12.050> trade<00:06:12.500> war<00:06:12.710> wasn't<00:06:12.919> the<00:06:13.130> only<00:06:13.280> factor 00:06:13.750 --> 00:06:13.760 align:start position:0% now the trade war wasn't the only factor 00:06:13.760 --> 00:06:16.240 align:start position:0% now the trade war wasn't the only factor but<00:06:13.790> it<00:06:14.180> was<00:06:14.390> a<00:06:14.419> contributor<00:06:15.080> demand<00:06:15.950> for 00:06:16.240 --> 00:06:16.250 align:start position:0% but it was a contributor demand for 00:06:16.250 --> 00:06:18.700 align:start position:0% but it was a contributor demand for labor<00:06:16.520> in<00:06:17.090> the<00:06:17.540> Chinese<00:06:17.930> import<00:06:18.440> export 00:06:18.700 --> 00:06:18.710 align:start position:0% labor in the Chinese import export 00:06:18.710 --> 00:06:22.810 align:start position:0% labor in the Chinese import export sector<00:06:19.340> has<00:06:19.550> fallen<00:06:19.820> by<00:06:20.419> 40%<00:06:21.220> in<00:06:22.220> the<00:06:22.550> last 00:06:22.810 --> 00:06:22.820 align:start position:0% sector has fallen by 40% in the last 00:06:22.820 --> 00:06:25.120 align:start position:0% sector has fallen by 40% in the last quarter<00:06:23.150> of<00:06:23.270> 2018<00:06:24.200> compared<00:06:24.680> to<00:06:24.830> a<00:06:24.860> year 00:06:25.120 --> 00:06:25.130 align:start position:0% quarter of 2018 compared to a year 00:06:25.130 --> 00:06:27.490 align:start position:0% quarter of 2018 compared to a year earlier<00:06:25.310> and<00:06:25.790> there's<00:06:26.750> starting<00:06:27.050> to<00:06:27.200> be<00:06:27.350> some 00:06:27.490 --> 00:06:27.500 align:start position:0% earlier and there's starting to be some 00:06:27.500 --> 00:06:30.940 align:start position:0% earlier and there's starting to be some hurt<00:06:27.919> in<00:06:28.100> the<00:06:28.220> US<00:06:28.490> economy<00:06:29.050> -<00:06:30.050> I<00:06:30.380> think<00:06:30.680> if 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position:0% see reduced US exports decreased GDP and<00:06:39.440> also<00:06:39.820> elimination<00:06:40.820> of<00:06:41.020> substantial 00:06:42.010 --> 00:06:42.020 align:start position:0% and also elimination of substantial 00:06:42.020 --> 00:06:44.530 align:start position:0% and also elimination of substantial number<00:06:42.350> of<00:06:42.380> American<00:06:42.980> jobs<00:06:43.730> but<00:06:44.120> I<00:06:44.180> think<00:06:44.420> the 00:06:44.530 --> 00:06:44.540 align:start position:0% number of American jobs but I think the 00:06:44.540 --> 00:06:47.020 align:start position:0% number of American jobs but I think the real<00:06:44.750> question<00:06:45.290> is<00:06:45.500> you<00:06:46.190> know<00:06:46.220> the<00:06:46.430> u.s.<00:06:46.730> does 00:06:47.020 --> 00:06:47.030 align:start position:0% real question is you know the u.s. does 00:06:47.030 --> 00:06:49.230 align:start position:0% real question is you know the u.s. does need<00:06:47.330> to<00:06:47.360> challenge<00:06:47.780> China's<00:06:48.470> unfair<00:06:48.620> trade 00:06:49.230 --> 00:06:49.240 align:start position:0% need to challenge China's unfair trade 00:06:49.240 --> 00:06:51.640 align:start position:0% need to challenge China's unfair trade practices<00:06:50.240> whether<00:06:50.600> it's<00:06:50.840> restrictions<00:06:51.470> on 00:06:51.640 --> 00:06:51.650 align:start position:0% practices whether it's restrictions on 00:06:51.650 --> 00:06:54.010 align:start position:0% practices whether it's restrictions on market<00:06:52.010> access<00:06:52.300> theft<00:06:53.300> of<00:06:53.480> intellectual 00:06:54.010 --> 00:06:54.020 align:start position:0% market access theft of intellectual 00:06:54.020 --> 00:06:57.010 align:start position:0% market access theft of intellectual property<00:06:54.700> subsidies<00:06:56.020> extraordinary 00:06:57.010 --> 00:06:57.020 align:start position:0% property subsidies extraordinary 00:06:57.020 --> 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00:07:06.340 align:start position:0% we were to do this in the right way the US<00:07:04.370> would<00:07:04.970> go<00:07:05.210> out<00:07:05.420> to<00:07:05.450> all<00:07:05.960> of<00:07:06.110> the<00:07:06.230> other 00:07:06.340 --> 00:07:06.350 align:start position:0% US would go out to all of the other 00:07:06.350 --> 00:07:08.620 align:start position:0% US would go out to all of the other countries<00:07:06.650> in<00:07:07.160> Asia<00:07:07.460> and<00:07:07.850> Europe<00:07:08.120> that<00:07:08.390> have 00:07:08.620 --> 00:07:08.630 align:start position:0% countries in Asia and Europe that have 00:07:08.630 --> 00:07:10.990 align:start position:0% countries in Asia and Europe that have the<00:07:08.750> same<00:07:08.990> issues<00:07:09.470> with<00:07:09.500> China<00:07:09.950> and<00:07:10.250> we<00:07:10.850> would 00:07:10.990 --> 00:07:11.000 align:start position:0% the same issues with China and we would 00:07:11.000 --> 00:07:13.990 align:start position:0% the same issues with China and we would lead<00:07:11.420> the<00:07:11.960> formation<00:07:12.590> of<00:07:12.710> a<00:07:12.800> coalition<00:07:13.040> to 00:07:13.990 --> 00:07:14.000 align:start position:0% lead the formation of a coalition to 00:07:14.000 --> 00:07:16.960 align:start position:0% lead the formation of a coalition to come<00:07:14.270> together<00:07:14.450> to<00:07:14.930> press<00:07:15.290> China<00:07:15.800> to<00:07:16.790> make 00:07:16.960 --> 00:07:16.970 align:start position:0% come together to press China to make 00:07:16.970 --> 00:07:19.030 align:start position:0% come together to press China to make structural<00:07:17.510> reforms<00:07:18.050> that's<00:07:18.320> the<00:07:18.560> right<00:07:18.800> way 00:07:19.030 --> 00:07:19.040 align:start position:0% structural reforms that's the right way 00:07:19.040 --> 00:07:20.650 align:start position:0% structural reforms that's the right way to<00:07:19.100> approach<00:07:19.280> this<00:07:19.880> Thank<00:07:20.270> You<00:07:20.420> Michele 00:07:20.650 --> 00:07:20.660 align:start position:0% to approach this Thank You Michele 00:07:20.660 --> 00:07:22.930 align:start position:0% to approach this Thank You Michele Flournoy<00:07:20.810> and<00:07:21.230> finally<00:07:22.040> issuing<00:07:22.370> hwang<00:07:22.640> on 00:07:22.930 --> 00:07:22.940 align:start position:0% Flournoy and finally issuing hwang on 00:07:22.940 --> 00:07:24.670 align:start position:0% Flournoy and finally issuing hwang on the<00:07:23.180> resolution<00:07:23.630> to<00:07:23.720> declare<00:07:23.960> yes<00:07:24.140> or<00:07:24.320> no<00:07:24.470> I 00:07:24.670 --> 00:07:24.680 align:start position:0% the resolution to declare yes or no I 00:07:24.680 --> 00:07:28.960 align:start position:0% the resolution to declare yes or no I declare<00:07:25.670> yes<00:07:26.030> yeah<00:07:27.070> one<00:07:28.070> thing<00:07:28.100> I<00:07:28.490> worry<00:07:28.760> about 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economic engine of 00:07:38.710 --> 00:07:40.450 align:start position:0% only as a economic engine of relationship<00:07:39.710> between<00:07:39.890> the<00:07:40.130> two<00:07:40.280> countries 00:07:40.450 --> 00:07:40.460 align:start position:0% relationship between the two countries 00:07:40.460 --> 00:07:44.250 align:start position:0% relationship between the two countries but<00:07:41.030> also<00:07:41.240> I<00:07:41.420> say<00:07:41.830> basis<00:07:42.830> of<00:07:43.100> political<00:07:43.400> and 00:07:44.250 --> 00:07:44.260 align:start position:0% but also I say basis of political and 00:07:44.260 --> 00:07:46.930 align:start position:0% but also I say basis of political and social<00:07:45.260> relationships<00:07:46.220> between<00:07:46.580> the<00:07:46.820> two 00:07:46.930 --> 00:07:46.940 align:start position:0% social relationships between the two 00:07:46.940 --> 00:07:47.380 align:start position:0% social relationships between the two countries 00:07:47.380 --> 00:07:47.390 align:start position:0% countries 00:07:47.390 --> 00:07:50.230 align:start position:0% countries once<00:07:48.050> you<00:07:48.230> undermine<00:07:48.770> that<00:07:48.800> pillar<00:07:49.460> other 00:07:50.230 --> 00:07:50.240 align:start position:0% once you undermine that pillar other 00:07:50.240 --> 00:07:52.870 align:start position:0% once you undermine that pillar other relationships<00:07:51.110> are<00:07:51.380> also<00:07:51.680> going<00:07:52.160> to<00:07:52.400> suffer 00:07:52.870 --> 00:07:52.880 align:start position:0% relationships are also going to suffer 00:07:52.880 --> 00:07:55.660 align:start position:0% relationships are also going to suffer right<00:07:53.360> so<00:07:53.600> that's<00:07:54.020> that's<00:07:54.410> both<00:07:55.070> of<00:07:55.220> them<00:07:55.400> are 00:07:55.660 --> 00:07:55.670 align:start position:0% right so that's that's both of them are 00:07:55.670 --> 00:07:59.110 align:start position:0% right so that's that's both of them are going<00:07:55.880> to<00:07:55.970> suffer<00:07:56.380> it's<00:07:57.380> very<00:07:57.830> easy<00:07:58.130> to<00:07:58.580> argue 00:07:59.110 --> 00:07:59.120 align:start position:0% going to suffer it's very easy to argue 00:07:59.120 --> 00:08:02.560 align:start position:0% going to suffer it's very easy to argue why<00:07:59.930> it<00:08:00.260> is<00:08:00.410> hurt<00:08:00.620> in<00:08:00.650> China<00:08:01.180> trade<00:08:02.180> as<00:08:02.540> a 00:08:02.560 --> 00:08:02.570 align:start position:0% why it is hurt in China trade as a 00:08:02.570 --> 00:08:05.920 align:start position:0% why it is hurt in China trade as a percentage<00:08:03.140> share<00:08:03.680> of<00:08:03.740> the<00:08:04.070> GDP<00:08:04.520> for<00:08:04.940> Chinese 00:08:05.920 --> 00:08:05.930 align:start position:0% percentage share of the GDP for Chinese 00:08:05.930 --> 00:08:08.710 align:start position:0% percentage share of the GDP for Chinese economy<00:08:06.500> is<00:08:06.530> about<00:08:06.860> 40<00:08:07.580> percent<00:08:07.610> a<00:08:08.210> little<00:08:08.630> bit 00:08:08.710 --> 00:08:08.720 align:start position:0% economy is about 40 percent a little bit 00:08:08.720 --> 00:08:11.620 align:start position:0% economy is about 40 percent a little bit shy<00:08:09.290> of<00:08:09.320> 40<00:08:09.980> percent<00:08:10.340> for<00:08:10.880> the<00:08:10.940> u.s.<00:08:11.240> is<00:08:11.450> only 00:08:11.620 --> 00:08:11.630 align:start position:0% shy of 40 percent for the u.s. is only 00:08:11.630 --> 00:08:15.640 align:start position:0% shy of 40 percent for the u.s. is only 26<00:08:12.530> percent<00:08:12.710> so<00:08:13.010> it's<00:08:13.160> hurting<00:08:13.490> China<00:08:14.650> export 00:08:15.640 --> 00:08:15.650 align:start position:0% 26 percent so it's hurting China export 00:08:15.650 --> 00:08:17.560 align:start position:0% 26 percent so it's hurting China export is<00:08:16.100> very<00:08:16.370> important<00:08:16.790> part<00:08:17.000> of<00:08:17.060> the<00:08:17.210> Chinese 00:08:17.560 --> 00:08:17.570 align:start position:0% is very important part of the Chinese 00:08:17.570 --> 00:08:19.510 align:start position:0% is very important part of the Chinese economy<00:08:17.780> it's<00:08:18.320> also<00:08:18.500> happened<00:08:19.010> to<00:08:19.070> be<00:08:19.190> one<00:08:19.490> of 00:08:19.510 --> 00:08:19.520 align:start position:0% economy it's also happened to be one of 00:08:19.520 --> 00:08:21.310 align:start position:0% economy it's also happened to be one of the<00:08:19.790> most<00:08:20.000> productive<00:08:20.270> sectors<00:08:20.960> of<00:08:21.200> the 00:08:21.310 --> 00:08:21.320 align:start position:0% the most productive sectors of the 00:08:21.320 --> 00:08:23.440 align:start position:0% the most productive sectors of the Chinese<00:08:21.620> economy<00:08:21.880> but<00:08:22.880> we<00:08:23.000> need<00:08:23.150> to<00:08:23.270> make<00:08:23.420> a 00:08:23.440 --> 00:08:23.450 align:start position:0% Chinese economy but we need to make a 00:08:23.450 --> 00:08:26.170 align:start position:0% Chinese economy but we need to make a case<00:08:23.750> why<00:08:24.050> the<00:08:24.590> trade<00:08:25.310> war<00:08:25.520> is<00:08:25.640> hurting<00:08:26.030> the 00:08:26.170 --> 00:08:26.180 align:start position:0% case why the trade war is hurting the 00:08:26.180 --> 00:08:29.890 align:start position:0% case why the trade war is hurting the United<00:08:26.570> States<00:08:26.840> as<00:08:27.110> well<00:08:28.480> people<00:08:29.480> mention 00:08:29.890 --> 00:08:29.900 align:start position:0% United States as well people mention 00:08:29.900 --> 00:08:32.620 align:start position:0% United States as well people mention about<00:08:30.110> farms<00:08:30.650> and<00:08:31.419> agricultural<00:08:32.419> products 00:08:32.620 --> 00:08:32.630 align:start position:0% about farms and agricultural products 00:08:32.630 --> 00:08:36.760 align:start position:0% about farms and agricultural products one<00:08:33.590> of<00:08:33.770> the<00:08:33.950> other<00:08:34.219> channels<00:08:35.320> in<00:08:36.320> which<00:08:36.530> the 00:08:36.760 --> 00:08:36.770 align:start position:0% one of the other channels in which the 00:08:36.770 --> 00:08:39.040 align:start position:0% one of the other channels in which the trade<00:08:37.010> trade<00:08:37.610> with<00:08:38.030> China<00:08:38.300> has<00:08:38.599> helped<00:08:38.960> the 00:08:39.040 --> 00:08:39.050 align:start position:0% trade trade with China has helped the 00:08:39.050 --> 00:08:42.700 align:start position:0% trade trade with China has helped the United<00:08:39.469> States<00:08:39.740> is<00:08:40.510> through<00:08:41.510> lowering<00:08:42.469> the 00:08:42.700 --> 00:08:42.710 align:start position:0% United States is through lowering the 00:08:42.710 --> 00:08:46.090 align:start position:0% United States is through lowering the cost<00:08:43.010> of<00:08:43.160> living<00:08:43.580> for<00:08:43.820> the<00:08:44.270> Americans<00:08:45.100> people 00:08:46.090 --> 00:08:46.100 align:start position:0% cost of living for the Americans people 00:08:46.100 --> 00:08:48.880 align:start position:0% cost of living for the Americans people tend<00:08:46.430> to<00:08:46.490> think<00:08:46.730> about<00:08:46.940> Chinese<00:08:47.890> trade 00:08:48.880 --> 00:08:48.890 align:start position:0% tend to think about Chinese trade 00:08:48.890 --> 00:08:51.850 align:start position:0% tend to think about Chinese trade Chinese<00:08:49.430> imports<00:08:50.270> as<00:08:50.720> hurting<00:08:51.140> jobs<00:08:51.380> in<00:08:51.680> the 00:08:51.850 --> 00:08:51.860 align:start position:0% Chinese imports as hurting jobs in the 00:08:51.860 --> 00:08:52.130 align:start position:0% Chinese imports as hurting jobs in the you<00:08:51.920> know 00:08:52.130 --> 00:08:52.140 align:start position:0% you know 00:08:52.140 --> 00:08:55.970 align:start position:0% you know stays<00:08:52.820> true<00:08:53.820> there's<00:08:54.210> some<00:08:54.720> of<00:08:54.870> that<00:08:54.900> but<00:08:55.350> it 00:08:55.970 --> 00:08:55.980 align:start position:0% stays true there's some of that but it 00:08:55.980 --> 00:08:59.720 align:start position:0% stays true there's some of that but it is<00:08:56.010> also<00:08:56.280> lowering<00:08:56.940> cost<00:08:57.810> of<00:08:57.990> living<00:08:58.350> for<00:08:59.130> poor 00:08:59.720 --> 00:08:59.730 align:start position:0% is also lowering cost of living for poor 00:08:59.730 --> 00:09:01.940 align:start position:0% is also lowering cost of living for poor Americans<00:09:00.330> right<00:09:00.750> there's<00:09:01.200> a<00:09:01.290> book<00:09:01.500> called 00:09:01.940 --> 00:09:01.950 align:start position:0% Americans right there's a book called 00:09:01.950 --> 00:09:04.580 align:start position:0% Americans right there's a book called made<00:09:02.220> in<00:09:02.250> China<00:09:02.700> in<00:09:03.330> which<00:09:03.600> the<00:09:03.870> author<00:09:04.020> tried 00:09:04.580 --> 00:09:04.590 align:start position:0% made in China in which the author tried 00:09:04.590 --> 00:09:08.720 align:start position:0% made in China in which the author tried for<00:09:05.070> one<00:09:05.250> year<00:09:05.600> live<00:09:06.600> on<00:09:07.130> products<00:09:08.130> not<00:09:08.460> made 00:09:08.720 --> 00:09:08.730 align:start position:0% for one year live on products not made 00:09:08.730 --> 00:09:10.550 align:start position:0% for one year live on products not made in<00:09:08.910> China<00:09:09.240> and<00:09:09.510> she<00:09:09.810> found<00:09:09.990> it<00:09:10.110> extremely 00:09:10.550 --> 00:09:10.560 align:start position:0% in China and she found it extremely 00:09:10.560 --> 00:09:12.770 align:start position:0% in China and she found it extremely difficult<00:09:10.980> right<00:09:11.580> okay<00:09:12.120> I'm<00:09:12.330> sorry<00:09:12.510> I<00:09:12.630> have<00:09:12.750> to 00:09:12.770 --> 00:09:12.780 align:start position:0% difficult right okay I'm sorry I have to 00:09:12.780 --> 00:09:14.450 align:start position:0% difficult right okay I'm sorry I have to cut<00:09:12.960> you<00:09:13.080> off<00:09:13.110> on<00:09:13.710> the<00:09:13.860> opening<00:09:14.130> round<00:09:14.310> that 00:09:14.450 --> 00:09:14.460 align:start position:0% cut you off on the opening round that 00:09:14.460 --> 00:09:16.460 align:start position:0% cut you off on the opening round that include<00:09:14.760> concludes<00:09:15.210> our<00:09:15.450> opening<00:09:16.140> round<00:09:16.290> on 00:09:16.460 --> 00:09:16.470 align:start position:0% include concludes our opening round on 00:09:16.470 --> 00:09:18.260 align:start position:0% include concludes our opening round on this<00:09:16.590> third<00:09:16.800> resolution<00:09:16.980> and<00:09:17.640> I<00:09:17.850> want<00:09:18.060> to<00:09:18.150> go 00:09:18.260 --> 00:09:18.270 align:start position:0% this third resolution and I want to go 00:09:18.270 --> 00:09:20.930 align:start position:0% this third resolution and I want to go since<00:09:19.020> we<00:09:19.170> have<00:09:19.410> four<00:09:19.860> yeses<00:09:20.100> in<00:09:20.280> one<00:09:20.550> no<00:09:20.730> and 00:09:20.930 --> 00:09:20.940 align:start position:0% since we have four yeses in one no and 00:09:20.940 --> 00:09:22.310 align:start position:0% since we have four yeses in one no and that<00:09:21.060> no<00:09:21.270> is<00:09:21.450> Ian<00:09:21.630> Bremmer<00:09:21.840> I<00:09:21.930> want<00:09:22.050> to<00:09:22.140> go<00:09:22.200> back 00:09:22.310 --> 00:09:22.320 align:start position:0% that no is Ian Bremmer I want to go back 00:09:22.320 --> 00:09:23.840 align:start position:0% that no is Ian Bremmer I want to go back to<00:09:22.440> you<00:09:22.530> in<00:09:22.590> Bremer<00:09:22.830> as<00:09:22.890> you<00:09:22.950> said<00:09:23.190> at<00:09:23.760> the 00:09:23.840 --> 00:09:23.850 align:start position:0% to you in Bremer as you said at the 00:09:23.850 --> 00:09:26.270 align:start position:0% to you in Bremer as you said at the beginning<00:09:24.060> this<00:09:25.050> might<00:09:25.230> be<00:09:25.380> the<00:09:25.470> most<00:09:25.620> nuanced 00:09:26.270 --> 00:09:26.280 align:start position:0% beginning this might be the most nuanced 00:09:26.280 --> 00:09:28.370 align:start position:0% beginning this might be the most nuanced of<00:09:26.520> the<00:09:26.730> three<00:09:27.270> resolutions<00:09:27.570> that<00:09:28.140> were 00:09:28.370 --> 00:09:28.380 align:start position:0% of the three resolutions that were 00:09:28.380 --> 00:09:30.110 align:start position:0% of the three resolutions that were debating<00:09:28.950> and<00:09:29.100> as<00:09:29.340> part<00:09:29.580> of<00:09:29.640> the<00:09:29.730> nuance<00:09:29.970> there 00:09:30.110 --> 00:09:30.120 align:start position:0% debating and as part of the nuance there 00:09:30.120 --> 00:09:31.280 align:start position:0% debating and as part of the nuance there I<00:09:30.330> think<00:09:30.750> there's<00:09:30.870> a<00:09:30.930> little<00:09:31.140> bit<00:09:31.260> of 00:09:31.280 --> 00:09:31.290 align:start position:0% I think there's a little bit of 00:09:31.290 --> 00:09:33.260 align:start position:0% I think there's a little bit of ambiguity<00:09:31.680> in<00:09:32.280> the<00:09:32.340> resolution<00:09:32.610> and<00:09:33.090> that<00:09:33.120> it 00:09:33.260 --> 00:09:33.270 align:start position:0% ambiguity in the resolution and that it 00:09:33.270 --> 00:09:35.540 align:start position:0% ambiguity in the resolution and that it says<00:09:33.510> that<00:09:33.720> both<00:09:33.930> the<00:09:34.140> US<00:09:34.440> and<00:09:34.470> China<00:09:35.370> will 00:09:35.540 --> 00:09:35.550 align:start position:0% says that both the US and China will 00:09:35.550 --> 00:09:37.010 align:start position:0% says that both the US and China will lose<00:09:35.670> the<00:09:35.820> trade<00:09:36.060> war<00:09:36.240> are<00:09:36.450> you<00:09:36.600> arguing<00:09:36.750> that 00:09:37.010 --> 00:09:37.020 align:start position:0% lose the trade war are you arguing that 00:09:37.020 --> 00:09:39.440 align:start position:0% lose the trade war are you arguing that neither<00:09:37.350> the<00:09:37.740> US<00:09:38.010> will<00:09:38.280> lose<00:09:38.460> trade<00:09:38.730> or<00:09:39.000> trying 00:09:39.440 --> 00:09:39.450 align:start position:0% neither the US will lose trade or trying 00:09:39.450 --> 00:09:41.330 align:start position:0% neither the US will lose trade or trying to<00:09:39.480> lose<00:09:39.720> the<00:09:39.810> trade<00:09:39.960> war<00:09:40.140> or<00:09:40.350> that<00:09:40.380> one<00:09:41.220> of 00:09:41.330 --> 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position:0% they both won't I I think that the the 00:09:49.620 --> 00:09:51.500 align:start position:0% they both won't I I think that the the Americans<00:09:50.160> there<00:09:50.520> are<00:09:50.580> lots<00:09:50.730> of<00:09:50.880> ways<00:09:51.060> to<00:09:51.120> cut 00:09:51.500 --> 00:09:51.510 align:start position:0% Americans there are lots of ways to cut 00:09:51.510 --> 00:09:53.240 align:start position:0% Americans there are lots of ways to cut it<00:09:51.660> right<00:09:51.690> now<00:09:52.110> I<00:09:52.140> think<00:09:52.380> Trump's<00:09:52.830> backing 00:09:53.240 --> 00:09:53.250 align:start position:0% it right now I think Trump's backing 00:09:53.250 --> 00:09:54.860 align:start position:0% it right now I think Trump's backing down<00:09:53.430> but<00:09:53.670> if<00:09:53.790> you've<00:09:53.910> gone<00:09:54.060> the<00:09:54.270> Bandon<00:09:54.660> route 00:09:54.860 --> 00:09:54.870 align:start position:0% down but if you've gone the Bandon route 00:09:54.870 --> 00:09:57.320 align:start position:0% down but if you've gone the Bandon route where<00:09:55.830> when<00:09:56.040> he<00:09:56.190> was<00:09:56.340> chief<00:09:56.580> strategist<00:09:57.120> in 00:09:57.320 --> 00:09:57.330 align:start position:0% where when he was chief strategist in 00:09:57.330 --> 00:09:58.730 align:start position:0% where when he was chief strategist in the<00:09:57.420> White<00:09:57.600> House<00:09:57.810> and<00:09:58.020> he<00:09:58.080> said<00:09:58.290> look<00:09:58.530> we're 00:09:58.730 --> 00:09:58.740 align:start position:0% the White House and he said look we're 00:09:58.740 --> 00:10:00.050 align:start position:0% the White House and he said look we're gonna<00:09:58.890> come<00:09:59.070> to<00:09:59.100> blows<00:09:59.310> with<00:09:59.460> the<00:09:59.730> Chinese 00:10:00.050 --> 00:10:00.060 align:start position:0% gonna come to blows with the Chinese 00:10:00.060 --> 00:10:01.460 align:start position:0% gonna come to blows with the Chinese eventually<00:10:00.570> but<00:10:00.690> we're<00:10:00.840> more<00:10:00.990> powerful<00:10:01.410> than 00:10:01.460 --> 00:10:01.470 align:start position:0% eventually but we're more powerful than 00:10:01.470 --> 00:10:02.990 align:start position:0% eventually but we're more powerful than they<00:10:01.560> are<00:10:01.590> now<00:10:01.920> if<00:10:02.070> we<00:10:02.190> wait<00:10:02.400> for<00:10:02.550> 5<00:10:02.730> or<00:10:02.760> 10 00:10:02.990 --> 00:10:03.000 align:start position:0% they are now if we wait for 5 or 10 00:10:03.000 --> 00:10:04.550 align:start position:0% they are now if we wait for 5 or 10 years<00:10:03.030> gonna<00:10:03.330> get<00:10:03.450> a<00:10:03.480> lot<00:10:03.600> harder<00:10:03.810> we've<00:10:04.380> got 00:10:04.550 --> 00:10:04.560 align:start position:0% years gonna get a lot harder we've got 00:10:04.560 --> 00:10:06.080 align:start position:0% years gonna get a lot harder we've got to<00:10:04.650> hit<00:10:04.770> him<00:10:04.860> really<00:10:05.010> hard<00:10:05.340> I<00:10:05.640> think<00:10:05.970> if<00:10:06.060> that 00:10:06.080 --> 00:10:06.090 align:start position:0% to hit him really hard I think if that 00:10:06.090 --> 00:10:08.090 align:start position:0% to hit him really hard I think if that had<00:10:06.600> been<00:10:06.630> the<00:10:06.930> strategy<00:10:07.350> and<00:10:07.500> the<00:10:07.650> Americans 00:10:08.090 --> 00:10:08.100 align:start position:0% had been the strategy and the Americans 00:10:08.100 --> 00:10:10.700 align:start position:0% had been the strategy and the Americans did<00:10:08.310> it<00:10:08.430> as<00:10:08.520> Michelle<00:10:09.150> suggested<00:10:09.900> with<00:10:10.500> the 00:10:10.700 --> 00:10:10.710 align:start position:0% did it as Michelle suggested with the 00:10:10.710 --> 00:10:12.790 align:start position:0% did it as Michelle suggested with the Europeans<00:10:11.190> with<00:10:11.400> the<00:10:11.550> Japanese<00:10:12.000> join<00:10:12.360> TPP 00:10:12.790 --> 00:10:12.800 align:start position:0% Europeans with the Japanese join TPP 00:10:12.800 --> 00:10:15.500 align:start position:0% Europeans with the Japanese join TPP really<00:10:13.800> you<00:10:14.160> know<00:10:14.250> put<00:10:14.940> together<00:10:15.150> the 00:10:15.500 --> 00:10:15.510 align:start position:0% really you know put together the 00:10:15.510 --> 00:10:17.750 align:start position:0% really you know put together the strongest<00:10:15.960> possible<00:10:16.440> case<00:10:16.500> I<00:10:16.920> think<00:10:17.490> the 00:10:17.750 --> 00:10:17.760 align:start position:0% strongest possible case I think the 00:10:17.760 --> 00:10:20.030 align:start position:0% strongest possible case I think the Chinese<00:10:18.000> would<00:10:18.570> have<00:10:18.720> backed<00:10:18.960> down<00:10:19.050> because 00:10:20.030 --> 00:10:20.040 align:start position:0% Chinese would have backed down because 00:10:20.040 --> 00:10:21.440 align:start position:0% Chinese would have backed down because they<00:10:20.160> would<00:10:20.280> recognize<00:10:20.730> this<00:10:20.910> was<00:10:21.090> going<00:10:21.270> to 00:10:21.440 --> 00:10:21.450 align:start position:0% they would recognize this was going to 00:10:21.450 --> 00:10:23.180 align:start position:0% they would recognize this was going to hurt<00:10:21.630> them<00:10:21.810> an<00:10:21.960> awful<00:10:22.500> lot<00:10:22.650> let's<00:10:22.890> keep<00:10:23.010> in 00:10:23.180 --> 00:10:23.190 align:start position:0% hurt them an awful lot let's keep in 00:10:23.190 --> 00:10:25.820 align:start position:0% hurt them an awful lot let's keep in mind<00:10:23.370> you<00:10:23.490> know<00:10:23.610> wargames<00:10:24.150> thermonuclear<00:10:25.140> war 00:10:25.820 --> 00:10:25.830 align:start position:0% mind you know wargames thermonuclear war 00:10:25.830 --> 00:10:29.090 align:start position:0% mind you know wargames thermonuclear war the<00:10:26.370> only<00:10:26.640> way<00:10:26.760> to<00:10:26.820> win<00:10:27.030> is<00:10:27.360> not<00:10:27.720> to<00:10:27.990> play<00:10:28.200> right 00:10:29.090 --> 00:10:29.100 align:start position:0% the only way to win is not to play right 00:10:29.100 --> 00:10:31.520 align:start position:0% the only way to win is not to play right I<00:10:29.370> do<00:10:29.610> think<00:10:30.030> the<00:10:30.120> Chinese<00:10:30.510> are<00:10:30.660> strategically 00:10:31.520 --> 00:10:31.530 align:start position:0% I do think the Chinese are strategically 00:10:31.530 --> 00:10:34.790 align:start position:0% I do think the Chinese are strategically smart<00:10:31.680> about<00:10:32.220> this<00:10:32.520> so<00:10:33.240> ultimately<00:10:34.050> you<00:10:34.710> know 00:10:34.790 --> 00:10:34.800 align:start position:0% smart about this so ultimately you know 00:10:34.800 --> 00:10:36.380 align:start position:0% smart about this so ultimately you know they<00:10:34.950> made<00:10:35.130> some<00:10:35.370> mistakes<00:10:35.730> she<00:10:36.120> shouldn't 00:10:36.380 --> 00:10:36.390 align:start position:0% they made some mistakes she shouldn't 00:10:36.390 --> 00:10:37.520 align:start position:0% they made some mistakes she shouldn't pit<00:10:36.480> the<00:10:36.600> fact<00:10:36.810> that<00:10:36.900> the<00:10:37.020> Chinese<00:10:37.260> were 00:10:37.520 --> 00:10:37.530 align:start position:0% pit the fact that the Chinese were 00:10:37.530 --> 00:10:38.840 align:start position:0% pit the fact that the Chinese were always<00:10:37.710> saying<00:10:38.070> we're<00:10:38.280> not<00:10:38.400> ready<00:10:38.640> to<00:10:38.730> be 00:10:38.840 --> 00:10:38.850 align:start position:0% always saying we're not ready to be 00:10:38.850 --> 00:10:40.280 align:start position:0% always saying we're not ready to be leaders<00:10:39.150> Xi<00:10:39.330> Jinping<00:10:39.450> came<00:10:39.720> out<00:10:39.960> of<00:10:40.050> the<00:10:40.110> box 00:10:40.280 --> 00:10:40.290 align:start position:0% leaders Xi Jinping came out of the box 00:10:40.290 --> 00:10:42.350 align:start position:0% leaders Xi Jinping came out of the box pretty<00:10:40.560> hot<00:10:40.740> and<00:10:41.070> he<00:10:41.340> said<00:10:41.520> no<00:10:41.700> I'm<00:10:41.940> gonna<00:10:42.150> be<00:10:42.330> a 00:10:42.350 --> 00:10:42.360 align:start position:0% pretty hot and he said no I'm gonna be a 00:10:42.360 --> 00:10:44.330 align:start position:0% pretty hot and he said no I'm gonna be a leader<00:10:42.600> and<00:10:42.870> we're<00:10:43.050> gonna<00:10:43.260> be<00:10:43.860> the<00:10:44.010> leaders<00:10:44.310> in 00:10:44.330 --> 00:10:44.340 align:start position:0% leader and we're gonna be the leaders in 00:10:44.340 --> 00:10:45.920 align:start position:0% leader and we're gonna be the leaders in free<00:10:44.670> trade<00:10:44.820> and<00:10:45.090> by<00:10:45.180> the<00:10:45.240> way<00:10:45.450> I'm<00:10:45.570> even<00:10:45.720> gonna 00:10:45.920 --> 00:10:45.930 align:start position:0% free trade and by the way I'm even gonna 00:10:45.930 --> 00:10:48.260 align:start position:0% free trade and by the way I'm even gonna be<00:10:46.050> leader<00:10:46.230> for<00:10:46.440> life<00:10:46.590> so<00:10:47.340> I'm<00:10:47.700> gonna<00:10:47.850> get<00:10:48.090> rid 00:10:48.260 --> 00:10:48.270 align:start position:0% be leader for life so I'm gonna get rid 00:10:48.270 --> 00:10:50.720 align:start position:0% be leader for life so I'm gonna get rid of<00:10:48.300> all<00:10:48.540> term<00:10:48.840> limits<00:10:49.260> I<00:10:49.470> think<00:10:50.430> that<00:10:50.580> was 00:10:50.720 --> 00:10:50.730 align:start position:0% of all term limits I think that was 00:10:50.730 --> 00:10:52.910 align:start position:0% of all term limits I think that was strategically<00:10:51.330> a<00:10:51.420> mistake<00:10:51.840> for<00:10:52.350> them<00:10:52.500> and<00:10:52.830> I 00:10:52.910 --> 00:10:52.920 align:start position:0% strategically a mistake for them and I 00:10:52.920 --> 00:10:54.140 align:start position:0% strategically a mistake for them and I think<00:10:52.950> that<00:10:53.250> now<00:10:53.460> that<00:10:53.670> they've<00:10:53.790> seen<00:10:54.030> that 00:10:54.140 --> 00:10:54.150 align:start position:0% think that now that they've seen that 00:10:54.150 --> 00:10:56.030 align:start position:0% think that now that they've seen that the<00:10:54.270> Americans<00:10:54.780> are<00:10:55.050> a<00:10:55.080> little<00:10:55.590> unpredictable 00:10:56.030 --> 00:10:56.040 align:start position:0% the Americans are a little unpredictable 00:10:56.040 --> 00:10:58.190 align:start position:0% the Americans are a little unpredictable and<00:10:56.640> willing<00:10:57.090> to<00:10:57.120> potentially<00:10:57.690> hit<00:10:57.840> them<00:10:57.960> hard 00:10:58.190 --> 00:10:58.200 align:start position:0% and willing to potentially hit them hard 00:10:58.200 --> 00:10:59.630 align:start position:0% and willing to potentially hit them hard in<00:10:58.320> ways<00:10:58.500> that<00:10:58.710> every<00:10:59.010> single<00:10:59.340> one<00:10:59.430> of<00:10:59.490> my 00:10:59.630 --> 00:10:59.640 align:start position:0% in ways that every single one of my 00:10:59.640 --> 00:11:01.280 align:start position:0% in ways that every single one of my co-panelists<00:11:00.210> have<00:11:00.300> admitted<00:11:00.660> this<00:11:01.110> is 00:11:01.280 --> 00:11:01.290 align:start position:0% co-panelists have admitted this is 00:11:01.290 --> 00:11:03.140 align:start position:0% co-panelists have admitted this is hurting<00:11:01.500> the<00:11:01.740> Chinese<00:11:02.070> economy<00:11:02.280> they're<00:11:03.030> not 00:11:03.140 --> 00:11:03.150 align:start position:0% hurting the Chinese economy they're not 00:11:03.150 --> 00:11:05.120 align:start position:0% hurting the Chinese economy they're not gonna<00:11:03.270> play<00:11:03.510> and<00:11:03.870> as<00:11:04.260> a<00:11:04.290> consequence<00:11:04.800> we're 00:11:05.120 --> 00:11:05.130 align:start position:0% gonna play and as a consequence we're 00:11:05.130 --> 00:11:05.700 align:start position:0% gonna play and as a consequence we're just<00:11:05.280> not<00:11:05.430> going<00:11:05.520> to 00:11:05.700 --> 00:11:05.710 align:start position:0% just not going to 00:11:05.710 --> 00:11:07.680 align:start position:0% just not going to trade<00:11:05.950> war<00:11:06.190> and<00:11:06.490> I<00:11:06.730> think<00:11:07.240> it's<00:11:07.330> important 00:11:07.680 --> 00:11:07.690 align:start position:0% trade war and I think it's important 00:11:07.690 --> 00:11:09.120 align:start position:0% trade war and I think it's important that<00:11:07.720> someone<00:11:08.170> on<00:11:08.230> the<00:11:08.290> panel<00:11:08.530> says<00:11:08.770> we're<00:11:08.980> not 00:11:09.120 --> 00:11:09.130 align:start position:0% that someone on the panel says we're not 00:11:09.130 --> 00:11:11.400 align:start position:0% that someone on the panel says we're not gonna<00:11:09.250> trade<00:11:09.430> war<00:11:09.610> those<00:11:10.300> the<00:11:10.720> other<00:11:10.780> four<00:11:11.320> of 00:11:11.400 --> 00:11:11.410 align:start position:0% gonna trade war those the other four of 00:11:11.410 --> 00:11:12.390 align:start position:0% gonna trade war those the other four of you<00:11:11.500> agree<00:11:11.740> that<00:11:11.950> we're<00:11:12.070> not<00:11:12.130> gonna<00:11:12.250> have<00:11:12.370> a 00:11:12.390 --> 00:11:12.400 align:start position:0% you agree that we're not gonna have a 00:11:12.400 --> 00:11:14.460 align:start position:0% you agree that we're not gonna have a trade<00:11:12.580> war<00:11:12.840> all<00:11:13.840> right<00:11:13.990> I<00:11:14.140> think<00:11:14.290> we're 00:11:14.460 --> 00:11:14.470 align:start position:0% trade war all right I think we're 00:11:14.470 --> 00:11:16.980 align:start position:0% trade war all right I think we're perpetually<00:11:14.830> in<00:11:15.340> some<00:11:15.670> kind<00:11:15.970> of<00:11:16.060> a<00:11:16.210> trade 00:11:16.980 --> 00:11:16.990 align:start position:0% perpetually in some kind of a trade 00:11:16.990 --> 00:11:18.450 align:start position:0% perpetually in some kind of a trade you<00:11:17.170> know<00:11:17.290> there's<00:11:17.470> competition<00:11:17.830> right<00:11:18.430> I 00:11:18.450 --> 00:11:18.460 align:start position:0% you know there's competition right I 00:11:18.460 --> 00:11:20.310 align:start position:0% you know there's competition right I call<00:11:18.730> a<00:11:18.760> tug<00:11:19.030> of<00:11:19.060> war<00:11:19.180> we're<00:11:19.570> always<00:11:19.780> competing 00:11:20.310 --> 00:11:20.320 align:start position:0% call a tug of war we're always competing 00:11:20.320 --> 00:11:22.620 align:start position:0% call a tug of war we're always competing to<00:11:20.620> have<00:11:20.650> the<00:11:20.980> largest<00:11:21.430> share<00:11:21.700> of<00:11:21.730> the<00:11:22.240> supply 00:11:22.620 --> 00:11:22.630 align:start position:0% to have the largest share of the supply 00:11:22.630 --> 00:11:25.530 align:start position:0% to have the largest share of the supply chain<00:11:23.020> or<00:11:23.260> value<00:11:23.650> creation<00:11:24.420> within<00:11:25.420> our 00:11:25.530 --> 00:11:25.540 align:start position:0% chain or value creation within our 00:11:25.540 --> 00:11:28.140 align:start position:0% chain or value creation within our shores<00:11:25.870> employing<00:11:26.410> our<00:11:26.590> workers<00:11:27.150> generated 00:11:28.140 --> 00:11:28.150 align:start position:0% shores employing our workers generated 00:11:28.150 --> 00:11:30.330 align:start position:0% shores employing our workers generated by<00:11:28.270> our<00:11:28.300> companies<00:11:28.900> with<00:11:29.200> our<00:11:29.380> IP<00:11:29.620> or<00:11:30.190> that 00:11:30.330 --> 00:11:30.340 align:start position:0% by our companies with our IP or that 00:11:30.340 --> 00:11:33.030 align:start position:0% by our companies with our IP or that we've<00:11:30.490> bought<00:11:31.030> borrowed<00:11:31.870> or<00:11:32.050> stolen<00:11:32.080> from 00:11:33.030 --> 00:11:33.040 align:start position:0% we've bought borrowed or stolen from 00:11:33.040 --> 00:11:34.920 align:start position:0% we've bought borrowed or stolen from others<00:11:33.310> or<00:11:33.460> built<00:11:33.730> ourselves<00:11:33.910> that's<00:11:34.750> a 00:11:34.920 --> 00:11:34.930 align:start position:0% others or built ourselves that's a 00:11:34.930 --> 00:11:36.510 align:start position:0% others or built ourselves that's a constant<00:11:35.530> struggle<00:11:35.770> it's<00:11:36.070> not<00:11:36.190> something 00:11:36.510 --> 00:11:36.520 align:start position:0% constant struggle it's not something 00:11:36.520 --> 00:11:37.920 align:start position:0% constant struggle it's not something that<00:11:36.580> begins<00:11:37.030> just<00:11:37.360> because<00:11:37.630> the<00:11:37.750> president 00:11:37.920 --> 00:11:37.930 align:start position:0% that begins just because the president 00:11:37.930 --> 00:11:40.110 align:start position:0% that begins just because the president says<00:11:38.350> I'm<00:11:38.650> an<00:11:38.920> array<00:11:39.100> of<00:11:39.130> Trey's<00:11:39.550> tariffs<00:11:39.910> here 00:11:40.110 --> 00:11:40.120 align:start position:0% says I'm an array of Trey's tariffs here 00:11:40.120 --> 00:11:41.400 align:start position:0% says I'm an array of Trey's tariffs here raise<00:11:40.420> tariffs<00:11:40.750> there<00:11:40.900> even<00:11:41.200> when<00:11:41.260> you're 00:11:41.400 --> 00:11:41.410 align:start position:0% raise tariffs there even when you're 00:11:41.410 --> 00:11:43.350 align:start position:0% raise tariffs there even when you're having<00:11:41.530> tried<00:11:41.890> trade<00:11:42.130> negotiations<00:11:42.910> you're 00:11:43.350 --> 00:11:43.360 align:start position:0% having tried trade negotiations you're 00:11:43.360 --> 00:11:45.300 align:start position:0% having tried trade negotiations you're having<00:11:43.750> that<00:11:43.870> struggle<00:11:44.410> over<00:11:44.650> you<00:11:45.070> know<00:11:45.190> the 00:11:45.300 --> 00:11:45.310 align:start position:0% having that struggle over you know the 00:11:45.310 --> 00:11:47.190 align:start position:0% having that struggle over you know the various<00:11:45.670> regulations<00:11:46.360> involved<00:11:46.750> in<00:11:46.840> them<00:11:46.960> how 00:11:47.190 --> 00:11:47.200 align:start position:0% various regulations involved in them how 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:48.600 align:start position:0% various regulations involved in them how much<00:11:47.350> do<00:11:47.470> you<00:11:47.530> have<00:11:47.590> to<00:11:47.710> protect<00:11:47.980> IP<00:11:48.190> what 00:11:48.600 --> 00:11:48.610 align:start position:0% much do you have to protect IP what 00:11:48.610 --> 00:11:50.310 align:start position:0% much do you have to protect IP what scale<00:11:49.000> of<00:11:49.180> subsidies<00:11:49.660> are<00:11:49.810> allowed<00:11:50.080> and<00:11:50.290> that 00:11:50.310 --> 00:11:50.320 align:start position:0% scale of subsidies are allowed and that 00:11:50.320 --> 00:11:52.500 align:start position:0% scale of subsidies are allowed and that kind<00:11:50.620> of<00:11:50.710> thing<00:11:50.950> that's<00:11:51.340> a<00:11:51.550> perpetual<00:11:52.300> thing 00:11:52.500 --> 00:11:52.510 align:start position:0% kind of thing that's a perpetual thing 00:11:52.510 --> 00:11:54.150 align:start position:0% kind of thing that's a perpetual thing it's<00:11:52.660> obviously<00:11:52.930> now<00:11:53.260> just<00:11:53.560> being<00:11:53.770> escalated 00:11:54.150 --> 00:11:54.160 align:start position:0% it's obviously now just being escalated 00:11:54.160 --> 00:11:56.550 align:start position:0% it's obviously now just being escalated it<00:11:54.640> could<00:11:54.790> also<00:11:54.910> be<00:11:55.200> de-escalated<00:11:56.200> but<00:11:56.350> to<00:11:56.440> me 00:11:56.550 --> 00:11:56.560 align:start position:0% it could also be de-escalated but to me 00:11:56.560 --> 00:11:58.560 align:start position:0% it could also be de-escalated but to me it's<00:11:56.770> a<00:11:56.950> low-level<00:11:57.340> struggle<00:11:58.060> that<00:11:58.270> is<00:11:58.390> that 00:11:58.560 --> 00:11:58.570 align:start position:0% it's a low-level struggle that is that 00:11:58.570 --> 00:12:00.120 align:start position:0% it's a low-level struggle that is that is<00:11:58.690> ongoing<00:11:58.870> and<00:11:59.200> even<00:11:59.770> if<00:11:59.830> you<00:11:59.920> have<00:12:00.010> in<00:12:00.070> a 00:12:00.120 --> 00:12:00.130 align:start position:0% is ongoing and even if you have in a 00:12:00.130 --> 00:12:01.650 align:start position:0% is ongoing and even if you have in a resolution<00:12:00.520> next<00:12:00.940> week<00:12:01.120> let's<00:12:01.360> be<00:12:01.510> perfectly 00:12:01.650 --> 00:12:01.660 align:start position:0% resolution next week let's be perfectly 00:12:01.660 --> 00:12:04.110 align:start position:0% resolution next week let's be perfectly clear<00:12:02.140> it<00:12:02.410> still<00:12:02.920> continues<00:12:03.700> because 00:12:04.110 --> 00:12:04.120 align:start position:0% clear it still continues because 00:12:04.120 --> 00:12:07.950 align:start position:0% clear it still continues because whatever<00:12:04.440> hiatus<00:12:05.440> or<00:12:05.710> pause<00:12:06.040> or<00:12:06.550> reform<00:12:07.090> the 00:12:07.950 --> 00:12:07.960 align:start position:0% whatever hiatus or pause or reform the 00:12:07.960 --> 00:12:10.260 align:start position:0% whatever hiatus or pause or reform the Chinese<00:12:08.320> may<00:12:08.500> offer<00:12:08.770> it's<00:12:09.670> going<00:12:09.880> to<00:12:09.970> be<00:12:10.090> very 00:12:10.260 --> 00:12:10.270 align:start position:0% Chinese may offer it's going to be very 00:12:10.270 --> 00:12:11.610 align:start position:0% Chinese may offer it's going to be very slow<00:12:10.600> to<00:12:10.630> implement<00:12:10.900> and<00:12:11.230> they're<00:12:11.320> gonna<00:12:11.410> make 00:12:11.610 --> 00:12:11.620 align:start position:0% slow to implement and they're gonna make 00:12:11.620 --> 00:12:14.100 align:start position:0% slow to implement and they're gonna make sure<00:12:11.890> that<00:12:11.920> they've<00:12:12.370> locked<00:12:13.150> in<00:12:13.420> benefits<00:12:13.930> to 00:12:14.100 --> 00:12:14.110 align:start position:0% sure that they've locked in benefits to 00:12:14.110 --> 00:12:16.320 align:start position:0% sure that they've locked in benefits to them<00:12:14.290> but<00:12:14.860> in<00:12:15.070> certain<00:12:15.520> sectors<00:12:15.730> before<00:12:16.210> they 00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:16.330 align:start position:0% them but in certain sectors before they 00:12:16.330 --> 00:12:17.910 align:start position:0% them but in certain sectors before they actually<00:12:16.600> open<00:12:16.930> those<00:12:17.080> sectors<00:12:17.350> so<00:12:17.740> it 00:12:17.910 --> 00:12:17.920 align:start position:0% actually open those sectors so it 00:12:17.920 --> 00:12:20.040 align:start position:0% actually open those sectors so it continues<00:12:18.400> even<00:12:18.430> in<00:12:19.000> when<00:12:19.420> not<00:12:19.690> in<00:12:19.870> named 00:12:20.040 --> 00:12:20.050 align:start position:0% continues even in when not in named 00:12:20.050 --> 00:12:22.170 align:start position:0% continues even in when not in named Susan<00:12:20.500> Thornton<00:12:20.830> yeah<00:12:21.250> I<00:12:21.460> was<00:12:21.670> just<00:12:21.790> gonna<00:12:21.940> say 00:12:22.170 --> 00:12:22.180 align:start position:0% Susan Thornton yeah I was just gonna say 00:12:22.180 --> 00:12:23.820 align:start position:0% Susan Thornton yeah I was just gonna say I<00:12:22.210> think<00:12:22.330> the<00:12:22.630> American<00:12:23.110> people<00:12:23.290> agree<00:12:23.800> with 00:12:23.820 --> 00:12:23.830 align:start position:0% I think the American people agree with 00:12:23.830 --> 00:12:25.500 align:start position:0% I think the American people agree with you<00:12:24.190> Ian<00:12:24.520> they<00:12:24.700> don't<00:12:24.880> think<00:12:25.120> there's<00:12:25.300> going 00:12:25.500 --> 00:12:25.510 align:start position:0% you Ian they don't think there's going 00:12:25.510 --> 00:12:27.870 align:start position:0% you Ian they don't think there's going to<00:12:25.630> be<00:12:25.720> a<00:12:26.110> trade<00:12:26.380> war<00:12:26.620> and<00:12:26.860> I<00:12:26.920> hope<00:12:27.130> that<00:12:27.460> they 00:12:27.870 --> 00:12:27.880 align:start position:0% to be a trade war and I hope that they 00:12:27.880 --> 00:12:30.840 align:start position:0% to be a trade war and I hope that they and<00:12:28.120> you<00:12:28.330> are<00:12:28.510> right<00:12:29.010> but<00:12:30.010> I<00:12:30.040> do<00:12:30.160> think<00:12:30.550> that 00:12:30.840 --> 00:12:30.850 align:start position:0% and you are right but I do think that 00:12:30.850 --> 00:12:33.660 align:start position:0% and you are right but I do think that that<00:12:31.180> we<00:12:31.330> are<00:12:31.360> in<00:12:31.960> some<00:12:32.560> kind<00:12:32.740> of<00:12:32.950> a<00:12:33.040> tech<00:12:33.340> war 00:12:33.660 --> 00:12:33.670 align:start position:0% that we are in some kind of a tech war 00:12:33.670 --> 00:12:36.330 align:start position:0% that we are in some kind of a tech war and<00:12:34.000> I<00:12:34.810> think<00:12:35.110> that's<00:12:35.290> going<00:12:35.500> to<00:12:35.560> go<00:12:35.770> on<00:12:35.950> long 00:12:36.330 --> 00:12:36.340 align:start position:0% and I think that's going to go on long 00:12:36.340 --> 00:12:39.390 align:start position:0% and I think that's going to go on long after<00:12:37.120> this<00:12:37.390> whatever<00:12:37.870> the<00:12:38.080> deal<00:12:38.350> is<00:12:38.380> and<00:12:39.010> I 00:12:39.390 --> 00:12:39.400 align:start position:0% after this whatever the deal is and I 00:12:39.400 --> 00:12:40.800 align:start position:0% after this whatever the deal is and I agree<00:12:39.670> with<00:12:39.700> you<00:12:40.000> prog<00:12:40.330> that<00:12:40.510> it's<00:12:40.630> going<00:12:40.750> to 00:12:40.800 --> 00:12:40.810 align:start position:0% agree with you prog that it's going to 00:12:40.810 --> 00:12:43.590 align:start position:0% agree with you prog that it's going to be<00:12:40.930> very<00:12:41.170> hard<00:12:41.410> to<00:12:41.470> verify<00:12:42.190> the<00:12:42.850> good<00:12:43.090> parts<00:12:43.480> of 00:12:43.590 --> 00:12:43.600 align:start position:0% be very hard to verify the good parts of 00:12:43.600 --> 00:12:46.290 align:start position:0% be very hard to verify the good parts of a<00:12:43.720> deal<00:12:43.960> assuming<00:12:44.470> that<00:12:44.620> we<00:12:44.710> get<00:12:44.950> them<00:12:45.270> but<00:12:46.270> I 00:12:46.290 --> 00:12:46.300 align:start position:0% a deal assuming that we get them but I 00:12:46.300 --> 00:12:48.510 align:start position:0% a deal assuming that we get them but I think<00:12:46.420> the<00:12:46.720> tech<00:12:47.020> war<00:12:47.350> part<00:12:47.740> is<00:12:47.980> going<00:12:48.130> to<00:12:48.190> keep 00:12:48.510 --> 00:12:48.520 align:start position:0% think the tech war part is going to keep 00:12:48.520 --> 00:12:51.620 align:start position:0% think the tech war part is going to keep keep<00:12:48.910> going<00:12:48.940> and<00:12:49.450> I<00:12:49.600> think<00:12:50.140> we<00:12:50.320> will<00:12:50.560> see<00:12:50.920> some 00:12:51.620 --> 00:12:51.630 align:start position:0% keep going and I think we will see some 00:12:51.630 --> 00:12:54.240 align:start position:0% keep going and I think we will see some fragmentation<00:12:52.630> of<00:12:52.750> the<00:12:52.810> internet<00:12:53.410> I<00:12:53.710> think<00:12:53.770> we 00:12:54.240 --> 00:12:54.250 align:start position:0% fragmentation of the internet I think we 00:12:54.250 --> 00:12:57.690 align:start position:0% fragmentation of the internet I think we will<00:12:54.460> see<00:12:54.760> a<00:12:54.790> lot<00:12:55.270> of<00:12:56.190> tug-of-war<00:12:57.190> over<00:12:57.220> this 00:12:57.690 --> 00:12:57.700 align:start position:0% will see a lot of tug-of-war over this 00:12:57.700 --> 00:13:00.210 align:start position:0% will see a lot of tug-of-war over this and<00:12:58.060> that<00:12:58.090> will<00:12:58.420> continue<00:12:58.900> to<00:12:59.020> have<00:12:59.230> knock-on 00:13:00.210 --> 00:13:00.220 align:start position:0% and that will continue to have knock-on 00:13:00.220 --> 00:13:01.860 align:start position:0% and that will continue to have knock-on effects<00:13:00.610> for<00:13:00.850> both<00:13:01.000> the<00:13:01.210> US<00:13:01.390> and<00:13:01.570> the<00:13:01.810> Chinese 00:13:01.860 --> 00:13:01.870 align:start position:0% effects for both the US and the Chinese 00:13:01.870 --> 00:13:04.020 align:start position:0% effects for both the US and the Chinese economies<00:13:02.830> and<00:13:03.040> it<00:13:03.160> will<00:13:03.280> continue<00:13:03.820> to 00:13:04.020 --> 00:13:04.030 align:start position:0% economies and it will continue to 00:13:04.030 --> 00:13:06.000 align:start position:0% economies and it will continue to produce<00:13:04.510> a<00:13:04.750> lot<00:13:04.960> of<00:13:04.990> uncertainty<00:13:05.770> for 00:13:06.000 --> 00:13:06.010 align:start position:0% produce a lot of uncertainty for 00:13:06.010 --> 00:13:08.430 align:start position:0% produce a lot of uncertainty for business<00:13:06.700> Michelle<00:13:07.120> for<00:13:07.300> me<00:13:07.450> you<00:13:07.930> know<00:13:07.990> I<00:13:08.020> look 00:13:08.430 --> 00:13:08.440 align:start position:0% business Michelle for me you know I look 00:13:08.440 --> 00:13:10.110 align:start position:0% business Michelle for me you know I look at<00:13:08.530> this<00:13:08.590> through<00:13:09.040> the<00:13:09.190> national<00:13:09.640> security 00:13:10.110 --> 00:13:10.120 align:start position:0% at this through the national security 00:13:10.120 --> 00:13:11.910 align:start position:0% at this through the national security lens<00:13:10.330> and<00:13:10.600> one<00:13:10.720> of<00:13:10.870> the<00:13:10.960> things<00:13:11.230> that<00:13:11.500> I<00:13:11.530> worry 00:13:11.910 --> 00:13:11.920 align:start position:0% lens and one of the things that I worry 00:13:11.920 --> 00:13:14.190 align:start position:0% lens and one of the things that I worry about<00:13:12.040> in<00:13:12.580> the<00:13:12.760> in<00:13:13.030> the<00:13:13.240> talk<00:13:13.480> of<00:13:13.630> a<00:13:13.720> trade<00:13:13.960> war 00:13:14.190 --> 00:13:14.200 align:start position:0% about in the in the talk of a trade war 00:13:14.200 --> 00:13:17.100 align:start position:0% about in the in the talk of a trade war is<00:13:14.470> feeding<00:13:15.010> kind<00:13:15.310> of<00:13:15.690> hardliners<00:13:16.690> on<00:13:16.900> both 00:13:17.100 --> 00:13:17.110 align:start position:0% is feeding kind of hardliners on both 00:13:17.110 --> 00:13:19.450 align:start position:0% is feeding kind of hardliners on both sides<00:13:17.410> so<00:13:17.740> there<00:13:17.890> are<00:13:18.010> now<00:13:18.190> Chinese 00:13:19.450 --> 00:13:19.460 align:start position:0% sides so there are now Chinese 00:13:19.460 --> 00:13:22.120 align:start position:0% sides so there are now Chinese folks<00:13:19.970> who<00:13:20.480> are<00:13:20.630> very<00:13:21.200> much<00:13:21.500> talking<00:13:22.040> about 00:13:22.120 --> 00:13:22.130 align:start position:0% folks who are very much talking about 00:13:22.130 --> 00:13:24.670 align:start position:0% folks who are very much talking about the<00:13:22.310> u.s.<00:13:22.820> is<00:13:23.000> trying<00:13:23.180> to<00:13:23.420> contain<00:13:23.810> China 00:13:24.670 --> 00:13:24.680 align:start position:0% the u.s. is trying to contain China 00:13:24.680 --> 00:13:26.770 align:start position:0% the u.s. is trying to contain China therefore<00:13:25.430> we<00:13:25.580> should<00:13:25.760> see<00:13:26.030> the<00:13:26.210> u.s.<00:13:26.450> as<00:13:26.660> an 00:13:26.770 --> 00:13:26.780 align:start position:0% therefore we should see the u.s. as an 00:13:26.780 --> 00:13:29.320 align:start position:0% therefore we should see the u.s. as an adversary<00:13:27.320> and<00:13:27.710> we<00:13:28.160> should<00:13:28.370> disentangle<00:13:29.180> they 00:13:29.320 --> 00:13:29.330 align:start position:0% adversary and we should disentangle they 00:13:29.330 --> 00:13:31.090 align:start position:0% adversary and we should disentangle they want<00:13:29.540> to<00:13:29.660> disentangle<00:13:29.990> fine<00:13:30.620> we<00:13:30.950> will 00:13:31.090 --> 00:13:31.100 align:start position:0% want to disentangle fine we will 00:13:31.100 --> 00:13:33.040 align:start position:0% want to disentangle fine we will disentangle<00:13:31.880> and<00:13:32.030> we<00:13:32.150> will<00:13:32.330> compete<00:13:32.690> and<00:13:32.900> win 00:13:33.040 --> 00:13:33.050 align:start position:0% disentangle and we will compete and win 00:13:33.050 --> 00:13:35.620 align:start position:0% disentangle and we will compete and win and<00:13:33.500> you<00:13:33.710> have<00:13:33.830> others<00:13:34.160> on<00:13:34.340> the<00:13:34.460> US<00:13:34.760> side<00:13:35.030> who 00:13:35.620 --> 00:13:35.630 align:start position:0% and you have others on the US side who 00:13:35.630 --> 00:13:38.020 align:start position:0% and you have others on the US side who say<00:13:35.660> we've<00:13:36.410> got<00:13:36.650> a<00:13:36.680> disentangle<00:13:37.520> on<00:13:37.640> our<00:13:37.790> side 00:13:38.020 --> 00:13:38.030 align:start position:0% say we've got a disentangle on our side 00:13:38.030 --> 00:13:40.600 align:start position:0% say we've got a disentangle on our side one<00:13:38.240> of<00:13:38.270> the<00:13:38.420> ways<00:13:38.720> that<00:13:39.020> you<00:13:39.200> deter<00:13:39.680> this 00:13:40.600 --> 00:13:40.610 align:start position:0% one of the ways that you deter this 00:13:40.610 --> 00:13:43.000 align:start position:0% one of the ways that you deter this competition<00:13:41.420> for<00:13:41.600> becoming<00:13:41.930> open<00:13:42.260> conflict 00:13:43.000 --> 00:13:43.010 align:start position:0% competition for becoming open conflict 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staying<00:13:49.610> engaged<00:13:50.290> and 00:13:51.280 --> 00:13:51.290 align:start position:0% and that's by staying engaged and 00:13:51.290 --> 00:13:52.870 align:start position:0% and that's by staying engaged and recognizing<00:13:52.070> that<00:13:52.100> we<00:13:52.370> do<00:13:52.610> have 00:13:52.870 --> 00:13:52.880 align:start position:0% recognizing that we do have 00:13:52.880 --> 00:13:55.030 align:start position:0% recognizing that we do have interdependencies<00:13:53.840> that<00:13:54.560> we<00:13:54.800> should 00:13:55.030 --> 00:13:55.040 align:start position:0% interdependencies that we should 00:13:55.040 --> 00:13:59.230 align:start position:0% interdependencies that we should actually<00:13:56.320> manage<00:13:57.460> we<00:13:58.460> have<00:13:58.640> to<00:13:58.790> we<00:13:59.090> have<00:13:59.120> to 00:13:59.230 --> 00:13:59.240 align:start position:0% actually manage we have to we have to 00:13:59.240 --> 00:14:01.060 align:start position:0% actually manage we have to we have to fight<00:13:59.690> for<00:13:59.720> our<00:13:59.930> interests<00:14:00.620> where<00:14:00.860> they're 00:14:01.060 --> 00:14:01.070 align:start position:0% fight for our interests where they're 00:14:01.070 --> 00:14:03.310 align:start position:0% fight for our interests where they're violated<00:14:01.640> but<00:14:02.270> you<00:14:02.780> don't<00:14:02.960> want<00:14:03.200> to 00:14:03.310 --> 00:14:03.320 align:start position:0% violated but you don't want to 00:14:03.320 --> 00:14:05.740 align:start position:0% violated but you don't want to disentangle<00:14:03.680> it's<00:14:04.310> not<00:14:04.520> possible<00:14:05.150> nor<00:14:05.420> as<00:14:05.600> it 00:14:05.740 --> 00:14:05.750 align:start position:0% disentangle it's not possible nor as it 00:14:05.750 --> 00:14:08.230 align:start position:0% disentangle it's not possible nor as it wise<00:14:05.930> you<00:14:06.350> have<00:14:06.650> to<00:14:06.830> use<00:14:07.240> interdependencies 00:14:08.230 --> 00:14:08.240 align:start position:0% wise you have to use interdependencies 00:14:08.240 --> 00:14:10.870 align:start position:0% wise you have to use interdependencies to<00:14:08.930> try<00:14:09.200> to<00:14:09.260> prevent<00:14:09.830> the<00:14:10.040> competition<00:14:10.700> from 00:14:10.870 --> 00:14:10.880 align:start position:0% to try to prevent the competition from 00:14:10.880 --> 00:14:12.400 align:start position:0% to try to prevent the competition from becoming<00:14:11.240> conscious<00:14:11.540> okay<00:14:11.900> with<00:14:12.050> four<00:14:12.230> yeses 00:14:12.400 --> 00:14:12.410 align:start position:0% becoming conscious okay with four yeses 00:14:12.410 --> 00:14:14.170 align:start position:0% becoming conscious okay with four yeses and<00:14:12.560> one<00:14:12.770> no<00:14:12.950> Ian<00:14:13.310> Bremmer<00:14:13.640> again<00:14:13.970> here<00:14:14.090> the 00:14:14.170 --> 00:14:14.180 align:start position:0% and one no Ian Bremmer again here the 00:14:14.180 --> 00:14:15.880 align:start position:0% and one no Ian Bremmer again here the know<00:14:14.300> I<00:14:14.330> saw<00:14:14.600> you<00:14:14.660> nodding<00:14:15.020> a<00:14:15.230> lot<00:14:15.440> when 00:14:15.880 --> 00:14:15.890 align:start position:0% know I saw you nodding a lot when 00:14:15.890 --> 00:14:17.710 align:start position:0% know I saw you nodding a lot when Michelle<00:14:16.250> was<00:14:16.280> speaking<00:14:17.030> so<00:14:17.270> you're<00:14:17.480> agreeing 00:14:17.710 --> 00:14:17.720 align:start position:0% Michelle was speaking so you're agreeing 00:14:17.720 --> 00:14:20.380 align:start position:0% Michelle was speaking so you're agreeing with<00:14:17.810> her<00:14:18.460> yeah<00:14:19.460> I<00:14:19.490> am<00:14:19.670> and<00:14:19.910> I'm<00:14:19.970> also<00:14:20.120> agreeing 00:14:20.380 --> 00:14:20.390 align:start position:0% with her yeah I am and I'm also agreeing 00:14:20.390 --> 00:14:22.270 align:start position:0% with her yeah I am and I'm also agreeing with<00:14:20.510> Susan<00:14:20.810> but<00:14:20.930> let<00:14:21.230> me<00:14:21.320> be<00:14:21.440> clear<00:14:21.620> I<00:14:21.950> mean<00:14:22.070> if 00:14:22.270 --> 00:14:22.280 align:start position:0% with Susan but let me be clear I mean if 00:14:22.280 --> 00:14:25.120 align:start position:0% with Susan but let me be clear I mean if the<00:14:22.490> resolution<00:14:23.060> had<00:14:23.270> said<00:14:23.770> that<00:14:24.770> neither 00:14:25.120 --> 00:14:25.130 align:start position:0% the resolution had said that neither 00:14:25.130 --> 00:14:27.520 align:start position:0% the resolution had said that neither side<00:14:25.550> can<00:14:25.790> win<00:14:25.970> a<00:14:26.000> tech<00:14:26.450> war<00:14:26.780> then<00:14:27.200> I<00:14:27.320> would 00:14:27.520 --> 00:14:27.530 align:start position:0% side can win a tech war then I would 00:14:27.530 --> 00:14:29.530 align:start position:0% side can win a tech war then I would have<00:14:27.620> flipped<00:14:27.890> it<00:14:28.190> but<00:14:28.670> since<00:14:28.940> it<00:14:29.090> actually 00:14:29.530 --> 00:14:29.540 align:start position:0% have flipped it but since it actually 00:14:29.540 --> 00:14:32.860 align:start position:0% have flipped it but since it actually said<00:14:29.750> trade<00:14:30.050> then<00:14:30.290> Susan<00:14:30.710> should<00:14:31.010> flippers<00:14:31.870> in 00:14:32.860 --> 00:14:32.870 align:start position:0% said trade then Susan should flippers in 00:14:32.870 --> 00:14:36.040 align:start position:0% said trade then Susan should flippers in I<00:14:33.710> I<00:14:34.160> think<00:14:34.730> that<00:14:35.000> one<00:14:35.330> question<00:14:35.600> that<00:14:35.810> we 00:14:36.040 --> 00:14:36.050 align:start position:0% I I think that one question that we 00:14:36.050 --> 00:14:38.050 align:start position:0% I I think that one question that we haven't<00:14:36.290> asked<00:14:36.890> right<00:14:37.190> is<00:14:37.460> what<00:14:37.670> does<00:14:37.760> it<00:14:37.910> mean 00:14:38.050 --> 00:14:38.060 align:start position:0% haven't asked right is what does it mean 00:14:38.060 --> 00:14:41.410 align:start position:0% haven't asked right is what does it mean to<00:14:38.300> win<00:14:38.510> or<00:14:38.660> lose<00:14:38.690> a<00:14:39.320> trade<00:14:40.040> war<00:14:40.310> right<00:14:41.030> because 00:14:41.410 --> 00:14:41.420 align:start position:0% to win or lose a trade war right because 00:14:41.420 --> 00:14:42.880 align:start position:0% to win or lose a trade war right because we<00:14:41.570> talk<00:14:41.750> about<00:14:41.870> wars<00:14:42.200> we<00:14:42.410> kind<00:14:42.560> of<00:14:42.620> know<00:14:42.740> that 00:14:42.880 --> 00:14:42.890 align:start position:0% we talk about wars we kind of know that 00:14:42.890 --> 00:14:44.770 align:start position:0% we talk about wars we kind of know that in<00:14:43.010> any<00:14:43.220> sort<00:14:43.550> of<00:14:43.700> war<00:14:44.030> that<00:14:44.420> it<00:14:44.540> kind<00:14:44.720> of 00:14:44.770 --> 00:14:44.780 align:start position:0% in any sort of war that it kind of 00:14:44.780 --> 00:14:46.930 align:start position:0% in any sort of war that it kind of usually<00:14:45.260> does<00:14:45.470> hurt<00:14:45.890> both<00:14:46.160> sides<00:14:46.490> but<00:14:46.820> we 00:14:46.930 --> 00:14:46.940 align:start position:0% usually does hurt both sides but we 00:14:46.940 --> 00:14:48.820 align:start position:0% usually does hurt both sides but we usually<00:14:47.090> still<00:14:47.480> do<00:14:47.660> talk<00:14:47.900> about<00:14:48.170> winners<00:14:48.590> and 00:14:48.820 --> 00:14:48.830 align:start position:0% usually still do talk about winners and 00:14:48.830 --> 00:14:51.460 align:start position:0% usually still do talk about winners and losers<00:14:49.280> you<00:14:49.910> know<00:14:50.060> in<00:14:50.210> World<00:14:50.390> War<00:14:50.510> two<00:14:50.840> the 00:14:51.460 --> 00:14:51.470 align:start position:0% losers you know in World War two the 00:14:51.470 --> 00:14:53.680 align:start position:0% losers you know in World War two the Brits<00:14:51.770> didn't<00:14:52.280> certainly<00:14:52.460> feel<00:14:53.060> necessarily 00:14:53.680 --> 00:14:53.690 align:start position:0% Brits didn't certainly feel necessarily 00:14:53.690 --> 00:14:55.180 align:start position:0% Brits didn't certainly feel necessarily like<00:14:53.960> winners<00:14:54.170> coming<00:14:54.500> out<00:14:54.650> of<00:14:54.740> that<00:14:54.830> but<00:14:55.070> they 00:14:55.180 --> 00:14:55.190 align:start position:0% like winners coming out of that but they 00:14:55.190 --> 00:14:57.820 align:start position:0% like winners coming out of that but they did<00:14:55.460> actually<00:14:56.030> win<00:14:56.210> with<00:14:57.170> the<00:14:57.290> United<00:14:57.590> States 00:14:57.820 --> 00:14:57.830 align:start position:0% did actually win with the United States 00:14:57.830 --> 00:15:00.100 align:start position:0% did actually win with the United States and<00:14:58.010> others<00:14:58.550> and<00:14:58.760> and<00:14:59.060> I<00:14:59.390> guess<00:14:59.630> I<00:14:59.750> would<00:14:59.930> say 00:15:00.100 --> 00:15:00.110 align:start position:0% and others and and I guess I would say 00:15:00.110 --> 00:15:01.990 align:start position:0% and others and and I guess I would say if<00:15:00.320> we<00:15:00.380> don't<00:15:00.920> think<00:15:01.220> we're<00:15:01.400> gonna<00:15:01.490> end<00:15:01.730> up<00:15:01.850> in 00:15:01.990 --> 00:15:02.000 align:start position:0% if we don't think we're gonna end up in 00:15:02.000 --> 00:15:04.300 align:start position:0% if we don't think we're gonna end up in a<00:15:02.090> knock-down<00:15:02.870> drag-out<00:15:02.900> trade<00:15:03.830> war<00:15:04.040> with<00:15:04.220> the 00:15:04.300 --> 00:15:04.310 align:start position:0% a knock-down drag-out trade war with the 00:15:04.310 --> 00:15:07.540 align:start position:0% a knock-down drag-out trade war with the Chinese<00:15:04.640> but<00:15:05.570> if<00:15:05.690> we<00:15:05.870> did<00:15:06.170> oh<00:15:06.500> it<00:15:07.280> would<00:15:07.400> hurt 00:15:07.540 --> 00:15:07.550 align:start position:0% Chinese but if we did oh it would hurt 00:15:07.550 --> 00:15:10.660 align:start position:0% Chinese but if we did oh it would hurt our<00:15:07.700> economy<00:15:08.180> but<00:15:08.810> I<00:15:08.870> think<00:15:09.140> we'd<00:15:09.290> win<00:15:09.500> right<00:15:10.430> I 00:15:10.660 --> 00:15:10.670 align:start position:0% our economy but I think we'd win right I 00:15:10.670 --> 00:15:13.000 align:start position:0% our economy but I think we'd win right I mean<00:15:10.910> as<00:15:11.060> the<00:15:11.180> world's<00:15:11.570> largest<00:15:11.840> oil<00:15:12.200> producer 00:15:13.000 --> 00:15:13.010 align:start position:0% mean as the world's largest oil producer 00:15:13.010 --> 00:15:15.070 align:start position:0% mean as the world's largest oil producer and<00:15:13.220> food<00:15:13.580> producer<00:15:14.090> with<00:15:14.360> the<00:15:14.480> world's<00:15:14.870> only 00:15:15.070 --> 00:15:15.080 align:start position:0% and food producer with the world's only 00:15:15.080 --> 00:15:17.800 align:start position:0% and food producer with the world's only global<00:15:15.530> reserve<00:15:16.070> currency<00:15:16.880> and<00:15:17.060> a 00:15:17.800 --> 00:15:17.810 align:start position:0% global reserve currency and a 00:15:17.810 --> 00:15:20.080 align:start position:0% global reserve currency and a geopolitical<00:15:18.460> environment<00:15:19.460> that<00:15:19.610> actually 00:15:20.080 --> 00:15:20.090 align:start position:0% geopolitical environment that actually 00:15:20.090 --> 00:15:22.660 align:start position:0% geopolitical environment that actually is<00:15:20.210> quite<00:15:20.390> stable<00:15:20.780> and<00:15:21.140> a<00:15:22.100> representative 00:15:22.660 --> 00:15:22.670 align:start position:0% is quite stable and a representative 00:15:22.670 --> 00:15:24.460 align:start position:0% is quite stable and a representative democracy<00:15:22.790> that<00:15:23.420> doesn't<00:15:23.660> work<00:15:23.810> super<00:15:24.440> well 00:15:24.460 --> 00:15:24.470 align:start position:0% democracy that doesn't work super well 00:15:24.470 --> 00:15:26.500 align:start position:0% democracy that doesn't work super well but<00:15:24.980> is<00:15:25.100> a<00:15:25.130> lot<00:15:25.430> less<00:15:25.670> brittle<00:15:26.060> than<00:15:26.210> Xi 00:15:26.500 --> 00:15:26.510 align:start position:0% but is a lot less brittle than Xi 00:15:26.510 --> 00:15:28.480 align:start position:0% but is a lot less brittle than Xi Jinping<00:15:26.570> as<00:15:27.140> president<00:15:27.650> for<00:15:27.800> life<00:15:27.980> and<00:15:28.310> no 00:15:28.480 --> 00:15:28.490 align:start position:0% Jinping as president for life and no 00:15:28.490 --> 00:15:29.650 align:start position:0% Jinping as president for life and no rule<00:15:28.670> of<00:15:28.760> law 00:15:29.650 --> 00:15:29.660 align:start position:0% rule of law 00:15:29.660 --> 00:15:32.590 align:start position:0% rule of law yeah<00:15:30.230> if<00:15:30.470> we<00:15:30.650> really<00:15:31.190> decide<00:15:31.490> to<00:15:31.700> get<00:15:31.820> into<00:15:32.000> it 00:15:32.590 --> 00:15:32.600 align:start position:0% yeah if we really decide to get into it 00:15:32.600 --> 00:15:34.870 align:start position:0% yeah if we really decide to get into it right<00:15:32.899> if<00:15:33.139> like<00:15:33.350> the<00:15:33.529> entire<00:15:33.949> administration 00:15:34.870 --> 00:15:34.880 align:start position:0% right if like the entire administration 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lose 00:15:45.100 --> 00:15:45.110 align:start position:0% yeah I I think that the Chinese lose 00:15:45.110 --> 00:15:47.590 align:start position:0% yeah I I think that the Chinese lose that<00:15:45.440> trade<00:15:45.829> war<00:15:46.130> yes<00:15:46.399> I<00:15:46.550> do<00:15:46.610> I<00:15:46.940> don't<00:15:47.420> know<00:15:47.509> I 00:15:47.590 --> 00:15:47.600 align:start position:0% that trade war yes I do I don't know I 00:15:47.600 --> 00:15:49.720 align:start position:0% that trade war yes I do I don't know I think<00:15:47.839> the<00:15:48.170> rest<00:15:48.380> of<00:15:48.529> the<00:15:48.620> world<00:15:48.889> I<00:15:49.310> mean<00:15:49.550> we 00:15:49.720 --> 00:15:49.730 align:start position:0% think the rest of the world I mean we 00:15:49.730 --> 00:15:51.850 align:start position:0% think the rest of the world I mean we you're<00:15:50.329> assuming<00:15:50.779> that<00:15:51.019> everyone<00:15:51.500> else<00:15:51.680> in 00:15:51.850 --> 00:15:51.860 align:start position:0% you're assuming that everyone else in 00:15:51.860 --> 00:15:56.019 align:start position:0% you're assuming that everyone else in the<00:15:51.949> world<00:15:52.100> lines<00:15:52.459> up<00:15:52.730> with<00:15:52.910> us<00:15:53.089> I<00:15:54.940> sent<00:15:55.940> a 00:15:56.019 --> 00:15:56.029 align:start position:0% the world lines up with us I sent a 00:15:56.029 --> 00:15:59.079 align:start position:0% the world lines up with us I sent a bunch<00:15:56.269> of<00:15:56.569> and<00:15:56.810> I<00:15:57.350> don't<00:15:57.410> know<00:15:57.910> number<00:15:58.910> one 00:15:59.079 --> 00:15:59.089 align:start position:0% bunch of and I don't know number one 00:15:59.089 --> 00:16:01.120 align:start position:0% bunch of and I don't know number one trading<00:15:59.449> partner<00:15:59.660> for<00:16:00.380> every<00:16:00.649> single<00:16:00.980> country 00:16:01.120 --> 00:16:01.130 align:start position:0% trading partner for every single country 00:16:01.130 --> 00:16:03.100 align:start position:0% trading partner for every single country in<00:16:01.310> Asia<00:16:01.610> and<00:16:02.089> by<00:16:02.300> the<00:16:02.360> way<00:16:02.509> it's<00:16:02.839> very 00:16:03.100 --> 00:16:03.110 align:start position:0% in Asia and by the way it's very 00:16:03.110 --> 00:16:04.900 align:start position:0% in Asia and by the way it's very important<00:16:03.649> for<00:16:03.800> them<00:16:03.920> you<00:16:04.130> know<00:16:04.160> all<00:16:04.550> that 00:16:04.900 --> 00:16:04.910 align:start position:0% important for them you know all that 00:16:04.910 --> 00:16:06.490 align:start position:0% important for them you know all that when<00:16:05.420> when<00:16:05.630> the<00:16:05.720> u.s.<00:16:05.959> pulled<00:16:06.230> out<00:16:06.380> of<00:16:06.410> the 00:16:06.490 --> 00:16:06.500 align:start position:0% when when the u.s. pulled out of the 00:16:06.500 --> 00:16:07.660 align:start position:0% when when the u.s. pulled out of the trans-pacific<00:16:06.829> partnership<00:16:07.100> trade 00:16:07.660 --> 00:16:07.670 align:start position:0% trans-pacific partnership trade 00:16:07.670 --> 00:16:11.129 align:start position:0% trans-pacific partnership trade agreement<00:16:09.069> acted<00:16:10.069> and<00:16:10.220> walked<00:16:10.430> away<00:16:10.579> from 00:16:11.129 --> 00:16:11.139 align:start position:0% agreement acted and walked away from 00:16:11.139 --> 00:16:13.389 align:start position:0% agreement acted and walked away from every<00:16:12.139> other<00:16:12.259> country<00:16:12.500> decide<00:16:13.069> to<00:16:13.190> go<00:16:13.279> ahead 00:16:13.389 --> 00:16:13.399 align:start position:0% every other country decide to go ahead 00:16:13.399 --> 00:16:14.650 align:start position:0% every other country decide to go ahead and<00:16:13.519> join<00:16:13.670> including<00:16:14.149> the<00:16:14.209> Canadians 00:16:14.650 --> 00:16:14.660 align:start position:0% and join including the Canadians 00:16:14.660 --> 00:16:16.240 align:start position:0% and join including the Canadians Mexicans<00:16:15.259> and<00:16:15.440> so<00:16:15.500> forth<00:16:15.680> we<00:16:15.800> already<00:16:16.130> have 00:16:16.240 --> 00:16:16.250 align:start position:0% Mexicans and so forth we already have 00:16:16.250 --> 00:16:18.699 align:start position:0% Mexicans and so forth we already have data<00:16:16.459> even<00:16:16.730> just<00:16:17.060> from<00:16:17.269> one<00:16:17.600> quarter<00:16:18.050> or<00:16:18.079> half 00:16:18.699 --> 00:16:18.709 align:start position:0% data even just from one quarter or half 00:16:18.709 --> 00:16:21.220 align:start position:0% data even just from one quarter or half a<00:16:19.009> year<00:16:19.040> showing<00:16:20.000> how<00:16:20.209> other<00:16:20.540> countries<00:16:20.839> are 00:16:21.220 --> 00:16:21.230 align:start position:0% a year showing how other countries are 00:16:21.230 --> 00:16:23.170 align:start position:0% a year showing how other countries are eating<00:16:21.769> away<00:16:21.889> at<00:16:22.040> America's<00:16:22.610> market<00:16:22.910> share<00:16:23.089> in 00:16:23.170 --> 00:16:23.180 align:start position:0% eating away at America's market share in 00:16:23.180 --> 00:16:24.639 align:start position:0% eating away at America's market share in those<00:16:23.269> countries<00:16:23.420> and<00:16:23.690> crucially<00:16:24.199> because 00:16:24.639 --> 00:16:24.649 align:start position:0% those countries and crucially because 00:16:24.649 --> 00:16:26.499 align:start position:0% those countries and crucially because you<00:16:24.740> mentioned<00:16:25.009> the<00:16:25.069> Japanese<00:16:25.519> when<00:16:26.000> we<00:16:26.300> are 00:16:26.499 --> 00:16:26.509 align:start position:0% you mentioned the Japanese when we are 00:16:26.509 --> 00:16:28.569 align:start position:0% you mentioned the Japanese when we are now<00:16:26.630> trying<00:16:26.899> to<00:16:26.990> push<00:16:27.199> for<00:16:27.410> a<00:16:27.440> bilateral<00:16:27.920> FTA 00:16:28.569 --> 00:16:28.579 align:start position:0% now trying to push for a bilateral FTA 00:16:28.579 --> 00:16:29.920 align:start position:0% now trying to push for a bilateral FTA with<00:16:28.850> Japan<00:16:29.180> they're<00:16:29.329> saying<00:16:29.509> you<00:16:29.600> know<00:16:29.779> what 00:16:29.920 --> 00:16:29.930 align:start position:0% with Japan they're saying you know what 00:16:29.930 --> 00:16:31.569 align:start position:0% with Japan they're saying you know what why<00:16:30.259> don't<00:16:30.290> you<00:16:30.440> just<00:16:30.620> come<00:16:30.860> back<00:16:30.980> to<00:16:31.160> the<00:16:31.250> TPP 00:16:31.569 --> 00:16:31.579 align:start position:0% why don't you just come back to the TPP 00:16:31.579 --> 00:16:33.280 align:start position:0% why don't you just come back to the TPP framework<00:16:32.180> and<00:16:32.300> let's<00:16:32.449> do<00:16:32.600> it<00:16:32.630> that<00:16:32.750> way<00:16:33.079> so 00:16:33.280 --> 00:16:33.290 align:start position:0% framework and let's do it that way so 00:16:33.290 --> 00:16:35.949 align:start position:0% framework and let's do it that way so trade<00:16:34.069> with<00:16:34.310> China<00:16:34.610> matters<00:16:34.970> a<00:16:35.060> lot<00:16:35.329> to<00:16:35.389> almost 00:16:35.949 --> 00:16:35.959 align:start position:0% trade with China matters a lot to almost 00:16:35.959 --> 00:16:37.300 align:start position:0% trade with China matters a lot to almost all<00:16:36.230> of<00:16:36.259> these<00:16:36.440> countries<00:16:36.680> and<00:16:37.009> we<00:16:37.069> didn't 00:16:37.300 --> 00:16:37.310 align:start position:0% all of these countries and we didn't 00:16:37.310 --> 00:16:39.370 align:start position:0% all of these countries and we didn't mention<00:16:37.459> one<00:16:38.180> of<00:16:38.300> the<00:16:38.389> winners<00:16:38.600> because<00:16:39.110> it's 00:16:39.370 --> 00:16:39.380 align:start position:0% mention one of the winners because it's 00:16:39.380 --> 00:16:41.379 align:start position:0% mention one of the winners because it's relative<00:16:39.829> gains<00:16:40.100> and<00:16:40.339> losses<00:16:40.430> not<00:16:40.819> absolute 00:16:41.379 --> 00:16:41.389 align:start position:0% relative gains and losses not absolute 00:16:41.389 --> 00:16:43.569 align:start position:0% relative gains and losses not absolute but<00:16:41.660> again<00:16:42.079> Europe<00:16:42.649> right<00:16:42.920> you<00:16:43.160> know<00:16:43.250> Europe 00:16:43.569 --> 00:16:43.579 align:start position:0% but again Europe right you know Europe 00:16:43.579 --> 00:16:45.730 align:start position:0% but again Europe right you know Europe is<00:16:43.730> going<00:16:43.910> to<00:16:44.029> be<00:16:44.209> whether<00:16:45.019> it's<00:16:45.230> aircraft 00:16:45.730 --> 00:16:45.740 align:start position:0% is going to be whether it's aircraft 00:16:45.740 --> 00:16:47.920 align:start position:0% is going to be whether it's aircraft industrial<00:16:46.339> goods<00:16:46.459> technology<00:16:47.180> the<00:16:47.660> stuff 00:16:47.920 --> 00:16:47.930 align:start position:0% industrial goods technology the stuff 00:16:47.930 --> 00:16:50.290 align:start position:0% industrial goods technology the stuff that<00:16:48.199> China<00:16:48.529> and<00:16:48.889> other<00:16:49.009> Asians<00:16:49.519> feel<00:16:49.850> is<00:16:50.180> now 00:16:50.290 --> 00:16:50.300 align:start position:0% that China and other Asians feel is now 00:16:50.300 --> 00:16:52.960 align:start position:0% that China and other Asians feel is now politically<00:16:50.810> volatile<00:16:51.500> that<00:16:51.829> the<00:16:52.519> US<00:16:52.790> could 00:16:52.960 --> 00:16:52.970 align:start position:0% politically volatile that the US could 00:16:52.970 --> 00:16:55.360 align:start position:0% politically volatile that the US could import<00:16:53.300> impose<00:16:53.959> export<00:16:54.470> controls<00:16:54.889> on<00:16:55.100> at<00:16:55.220> any 00:16:55.360 --> 00:16:55.370 align:start position:0% import impose export controls on at any 00:16:55.370 --> 00:16:57.249 align:start position:0% import impose export controls on at any time<00:16:55.670> like<00:16:55.910> semiconductors<00:16:56.720> and<00:16:56.870> other<00:16:56.990> sorts 00:16:57.249 --> 00:16:57.259 align:start position:0% time like semiconductors and other sorts 00:16:57.259 --> 00:16:58.660 align:start position:0% time like semiconductors and other sorts of<00:16:57.319> things<00:16:57.380> it's<00:16:57.860> just<00:16:58.100> not<00:16:58.250> they're<00:16:58.430> just<00:16:58.459> not 00:16:58.660 --> 00:16:58.670 align:start position:0% of things it's just not they're just not 00:16:58.670 --> 00:16:59.980 align:start position:0% of things it's just not they're just not gonna<00:16:58.790> buy<00:16:59.060> them<00:16:59.269> from<00:16:59.449> America<00:16:59.839> anymore 00:16:59.980 --> 00:16:59.990 align:start position:0% gonna buy them from America anymore 00:16:59.990 --> 00:17:01.389 align:start position:0% gonna buy them from America anymore they're<00:17:00.230> gonna<00:17:00.319> buy<00:17:00.560> them<00:17:00.740> from<00:17:00.889> Europeans 00:17:01.389 --> 00:17:01.399 align:start position:0% they're gonna buy them from Europeans 00:17:01.399 --> 00:17:03.189 align:start position:0% they're gonna buy them from Europeans and<00:17:01.550> other<00:17:01.639> Asia<00:17:01.850> you<00:17:02.149> shine<00:17:02.360> raises<00:17:03.110> the 00:17:03.189 --> 00:17:03.199 align:start position:0% and other Asia you shine raises the 00:17:03.199 --> 00:17:04.120 align:start position:0% and other Asia you shine raises the question<00:17:03.470> that<00:17:03.560> we<00:17:03.680> haven't<00:17:03.800> really<00:17:04.010> defined 00:17:04.120 --> 00:17:04.130 align:start position:0% question that we haven't really defined 00:17:04.130 --> 00:17:05.740 align:start position:0% question that we haven't really defined what's<00:17:04.459> winning<00:17:04.640> and<00:17:04.939> what's<00:17:05.120> losing<00:17:05.480> and<00:17:05.659> he 00:17:05.740 --> 00:17:05.750 align:start position:0% what's winning and what's losing and he 00:17:05.750 --> 00:17:07.449 align:start position:0% what's winning and what's losing and he did<00:17:06.140> actually<00:17:06.500> come<00:17:06.650> up<00:17:06.679> with<00:17:06.919> a<00:17:06.949> sort<00:17:07.400> of 00:17:07.449 --> 00:17:07.459 align:start position:0% did actually come up with a sort of 00:17:07.459 --> 00:17:10.929 align:start position:0% did actually come up with a sort of extreme<00:17:08.299> case<00:17:08.510> of<00:17:08.539> winning<00:17:09.260> but<00:17:09.409> but<00:17:09.799> if<00:17:10.220> the 00:17:10.929 --> 00:17:10.939 align:start position:0% extreme case of winning but but if the 00:17:10.939 --> 00:17:12.880 align:start position:0% extreme case of winning but but if the US<00:17:11.360> is<00:17:11.630> goal<00:17:11.839> is<00:17:12.049> to<00:17:12.199> get<00:17:12.289> China<00:17:12.530> to<00:17:12.679> open 00:17:12.880 --> 00:17:12.890 align:start position:0% US is goal is to get China to open 00:17:12.890 --> 00:17:14.679 align:start position:0% US is goal is to get China to open markets<00:17:13.039> to<00:17:13.459> stop<00:17:14.059> stealing<00:17:14.299> intellectual 00:17:14.679 --> 00:17:14.689 align:start position:0% markets to stop stealing intellectual 00:17:14.689 --> 00:17:16.779 align:start position:0% markets to stop stealing intellectual property<00:17:15.230> and<00:17:15.409> that<00:17:15.589> were<00:17:15.919> to<00:17:16.130> happen<00:17:16.309> would 00:17:16.779 --> 00:17:16.789 align:start position:0% property and that were to happen would 00:17:16.789 --> 00:17:21.010 align:start position:0% property and that were to happen would that<00:17:16.970> not<00:17:17.600> be<00:17:17.659> a<00:17:17.839> win<00:17:18.110> for<00:17:19.000> for<00:17:20.000> the<00:17:20.089> United 00:17:21.010 --> 00:17:21.020 align:start position:0% that not be a win for for the United 00:17:21.020 --> 00:17:23.429 align:start position:0% that not be a win for for the United States<00:17:21.260> for<00:17:21.740> the<00:17:21.829> I<00:17:22.039> think<00:17:22.400> in<00:17:22.579> the<00:17:22.730> current 00:17:23.429 --> 00:17:23.439 align:start position:0% States for the I think in the current 00:17:23.439 --> 00:17:27.429 align:start position:0% States for the I think in the current state<00:17:24.439> of<00:17:24.470> the<00:17:24.829> trade<00:17:25.309> war<00:17:25.730> China<00:17:26.659> loses<00:17:27.169> more 00:17:27.429 --> 00:17:27.439 align:start position:0% state of the trade war China loses more 00:17:27.439 --> 00:17:30.490 align:start position:0% state of the trade war China loses more than<00:17:27.500> even<00:17:27.890> as<00:17:28.059> the<00:17:29.059> new<00:17:29.240> United<00:17:29.600> States<00:17:29.630> if<00:17:30.440> we 00:17:30.490 --> 00:17:30.500 align:start position:0% than even as the new United States if we 00:17:30.500 --> 00:17:33.760 align:start position:0% than even as the new United States if we go<00:17:30.950> all<00:17:31.190> the<00:17:31.370> way<00:17:31.400> to<00:17:32.270> the<00:17:32.419> to<00:17:32.780> the<00:17:32.960> to<00:17:33.200> the<00:17:33.350> to 00:17:33.760 --> 00:17:33.770 align:start position:0% go all the way to the to the to the to 00:17:33.770 --> 00:17:36.730 align:start position:0% go all the way to the to the to the to the<00:17:33.919> total<00:17:34.159> trade<00:17:34.760> war<00:17:35.000> your<00:17:35.900> challenge<00:17:36.530> gonna 00:17:36.730 --> 00:17:36.740 align:start position:0% the total trade war your challenge gonna 00:17:36.740 --> 00:17:38.980 align:start position:0% the total trade war your challenge gonna win<00:17:36.980> remember<00:17:37.610> this<00:17:38.030> is<00:17:38.210> a<00:17:38.240> country<00:17:38.630> that<00:17:38.659> went 00:17:38.980 --> 00:17:38.990 align:start position:0% win remember this is a country that went 00:17:38.990 --> 00:17:41.740 align:start position:0% win remember this is a country that went to<00:17:39.190> cultural<00:17:40.190> evolution<00:17:40.669> and<00:17:41.360> great<00:17:41.570> leap 00:17:41.740 --> 00:17:41.750 align:start position:0% to cultural evolution and great leap 00:17:41.750 --> 00:17:44.440 align:start position:0% to cultural evolution and great leap forward<00:17:41.830> and<00:17:42.830> survived 00:17:44.440 --> 00:17:44.450 align:start position:0% forward and survived 00:17:44.450 --> 00:17:47.710 align:start position:0% forward and survived those<00:17:44.930> economic<00:17:45.740> catastrophes<00:17:46.850> if<00:17:47.240> you<00:17:47.420> fight 00:17:47.710 --> 00:17:47.720 align:start position:0% those economic catastrophes if you fight 00:17:47.720 --> 00:17:50.020 align:start position:0% those economic catastrophes if you fight extreme<00:17:48.260> wars<00:17:48.560> the<00:17:49.430> Chinese<00:17:49.760> political 00:17:50.020 --> 00:17:50.030 align:start position:0% extreme wars the Chinese political 00:17:50.030 --> 00:17:52.450 align:start position:0% extreme wars the Chinese political system<00:17:50.600> is<00:17:50.750> going<00:17:51.020> to<00:17:51.140> come<00:17:51.320> out<00:17:51.470> at<00:17:52.010> the<00:17:52.220> top 00:17:52.450 --> 00:17:52.460 align:start position:0% system is going to come out at the top 00:17:52.460 --> 00:17:54.400 align:start position:0% system is going to come out at the top just<00:17:53.030> because<00:17:53.390> they<00:17:53.600> have<00:17:53.780> this<00:17:53.900> capability 00:17:54.400 --> 00:17:54.410 align:start position:0% just because they have this capability 00:17:54.410 --> 00:17:59.800 align:start position:0% just because they have this capability of<00:17:55.750> withstanding<00:17:57.100> massive<00:17:58.100> economic<00:17:59.000> shocks 00:17:59.800 --> 00:17:59.810 align:start position:0% of withstanding massive economic shocks 00:17:59.810 --> 00:18:03.190 align:start position:0% of withstanding massive economic shocks but<00:18:00.440> I<00:18:00.470> want<00:18:00.740> to<00:18:00.860> say<00:18:01.100> that<00:18:01.400> the<00:18:02.000> trade<00:18:02.240> war<00:18:02.540> has 00:18:03.190 --> 00:18:03.200 align:start position:0% but I want to say that the trade war has 00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:05.920 align:start position:0% but I want to say that the trade war has already<00:18:03.470> translated<00:18:04.070> into<00:18:04.640> conflicts<00:18:05.420> in 00:18:05.920 --> 00:18:05.930 align:start position:0% already translated into conflicts in 00:18:05.930 --> 00:18:08.080 align:start position:0% already translated into conflicts in other<00:18:06.110> areas<00:18:06.710> and<00:18:06.980> those<00:18:07.370> conflicts<00:18:07.910> are 00:18:08.080 --> 00:18:08.090 align:start position:0% other areas and those conflicts are 00:18:08.090 --> 00:18:11.320 align:start position:0% other areas and those conflicts are happening<00:18:08.660> already<00:18:09.220> today's<00:18:10.220> debate<00:18:11.150> is 00:18:11.320 --> 00:18:11.330 align:start position:0% happening already today's debate is 00:18:11.330 --> 00:18:13.930 align:start position:0% happening already today's debate is about<00:18:11.600> cold<00:18:11.960> war<00:18:12.200> two<00:18:12.890> years<00:18:13.130> ago<00:18:13.370> we<00:18:13.670> didn't 00:18:13.930 --> 00:18:13.940 align:start position:0% about cold war two years ago we didn't 00:18:13.940 --> 00:18:16.930 align:start position:0% about cold war two years ago we didn't use<00:18:14.260> hot<00:18:15.260> war<00:18:15.530> to<00:18:15.800> describe<00:18:16.220> the<00:18:16.460> relationship 00:18:16.930 --> 00:18:16.940 align:start position:0% use hot war to describe the relationship 00:18:16.940 --> 00:18:19.540 align:start position:0% use hot war to describe the relationship between<00:18:17.120> China<00:18:17.300> and<00:18:17.720> the<00:18:18.080> United<00:18:18.200> States<00:18:18.550> the 00:18:19.540 --> 00:18:19.550 align:start position:0% between China and the United States the 00:18:19.550 --> 00:18:22.150 align:start position:0% between China and the United States the director<00:18:20.030> of<00:18:20.060> the<00:18:20.390> FBI<00:18:20.570> FBI<00:18:21.160> crystal 00:18:22.150 --> 00:18:22.160 align:start position:0% director of the FBI FBI crystal 00:18:22.160 --> 00:18:24.880 align:start position:0% director of the FBI FBI crystal Christopher<00:18:23.030> Rea<00:18:23.290> described<00:18:24.290> the<00:18:24.500> Chinese 00:18:24.880 --> 00:18:24.890 align:start position:0% Christopher Rea described the Chinese 00:18:24.890 --> 00:18:26.740 align:start position:0% Christopher Rea described the Chinese government<00:18:25.460> as<00:18:25.610> a<00:18:25.670> threat<00:18:26.060> to<00:18:26.240> the<00:18:26.360> United 00:18:26.740 --> 00:18:26.750 align:start position:0% government as a threat to the United 00:18:26.750 --> 00:18:29.320 align:start position:0% government as a threat to the United States<00:18:27.020> as<00:18:27.320> well<00:18:27.740> as<00:18:27.890> the<00:18:28.100> Chinese<00:18:28.460> society 00:18:29.320 --> 00:18:29.330 align:start position:0% States as well as the Chinese society 00:18:29.330 --> 00:18:31.900 align:start position:0% States as well as the Chinese society that<00:18:29.990> means<00:18:30.200> Chinese<00:18:30.830> scientists<00:18:31.460> I<00:18:31.700> mean 00:18:31.900 --> 00:18:31.910 align:start position:0% that means Chinese scientists I mean 00:18:31.910 --> 00:18:35.380 align:start position:0% that means Chinese scientists I mean Chinese<00:18:32.300> students<00:18:32.720> Chinese<00:18:33.560> visitors<00:18:34.120> us<00:18:35.120> is 00:18:35.380 --> 00:18:35.390 align:start position:0% Chinese students Chinese visitors us is 00:18:35.390 --> 00:18:37.780 align:start position:0% Chinese students Chinese visitors us is curbing<00:18:35.960> the<00:18:36.500> visas<00:18:36.980> and<00:18:37.250> the<00:18:37.400> Chinese 00:18:37.780 --> 00:18:37.790 align:start position:0% curbing the visas and the Chinese 00:18:37.790 --> 00:18:41.740 align:start position:0% curbing the visas and the Chinese students<00:18:38.510> the<00:18:39.640> graduates<00:18:40.640> from<00:18:40.880> American 00:18:41.740 --> 00:18:41.750 align:start position:0% students the graduates from American 00:18:41.750 --> 00:18:45.030 align:start position:0% students the graduates from American universities<00:18:42.700> cannot<00:18:43.700> get<00:18:43.940> visas<00:18:44.810> anymore 00:18:45.030 --> 00:18:45.040 align:start position:0% universities cannot get visas anymore 00:18:45.040 --> 00:18:49.090 align:start position:0% universities cannot get visas anymore they<00:18:46.040> cannot<00:18:46.400> do<00:18:46.610> research<00:18:47.230> in<00:18:48.230> the<00:18:48.470> United 00:18:49.090 --> 00:18:49.100 align:start position:0% they cannot do research in the United 00:18:49.100 --> 00:18:51.790 align:start position:0% they cannot do research in the United States<00:18:49.930> universities<00:18:50.930> they<00:18:51.290> find<00:18:51.500> it<00:18:51.620> more 00:18:51.790 --> 00:18:51.800 align:start position:0% States universities they find it more 00:18:51.800 --> 00:18:53.830 align:start position:0% States universities they find it more difficult<00:18:51.830> to<00:18:52.220> do<00:18:52.400> that<00:18:52.430> than<00:18:52.760> before<00:18:53.180> the 00:18:53.830 --> 00:18:53.840 align:start position:0% difficult to do that than before the 00:18:53.840 --> 00:18:56.500 align:start position:0% difficult to do that than before the u.s.<00:18:54.140> is<00:18:54.470> also<00:18:54.980> restricting<00:18:55.670> investments<00:18:56.360> by 00:18:56.500 --> 00:18:56.510 align:start position:0% u.s. is also restricting investments by 00:18:56.510 --> 00:18:59.020 align:start position:0% u.s. is also restricting investments by Chinese<00:18:56.870> companies<00:18:57.010> in<00:18:58.010> the<00:18:58.280> United<00:18:58.760> States 00:18:59.020 --> 00:18:59.030 align:start position:0% Chinese companies in the United States 00:18:59.030 --> 00:19:01.570 align:start position:0% Chinese companies in the United States not<00:18:59.540> just<00:18:59.600> large-scale<00:19:00.500> investments<00:19:01.160> but 00:19:01.570 --> 00:19:01.580 align:start position:0% not just large-scale investments but 00:19:01.580 --> 00:19:04.300 align:start position:0% not just large-scale investments but also<00:19:01.640> small<00:19:02.360> scale<00:19:02.660> investments<00:19:03.470> in<00:19:03.860> startups 00:19:04.300 --> 00:19:04.310 align:start position:0% also small scale investments in startups 00:19:04.310 --> 00:19:06.160 align:start position:0% also small scale investments in startups right<00:19:04.850> that's<00:19:05.240> going<00:19:05.450> to<00:19:05.570> hurt<00:19:05.780> the<00:19:05.990> United 00:19:06.160 --> 00:19:06.170 align:start position:0% right that's going to hurt the United 00:19:06.170 --> 00:19:08.950 align:start position:0% right that's going to hurt the United States<00:19:06.680> so<00:19:07.520> it's<00:19:08.090> always<00:19:08.240> gonna<00:19:08.420> rebound<00:19:08.780> on 00:19:08.950 --> 00:19:08.960 align:start position:0% States so it's always gonna rebound on 00:19:08.960 --> 00:19:10.780 align:start position:0% States so it's always gonna rebound on the<00:19:09.020> United<00:19:09.290> States<00:19:09.560> you're<00:19:10.190> saying<00:19:10.490> that 00:19:10.780 --> 00:19:10.790 align:start position:0% the United States you're saying that 00:19:10.790 --> 00:19:13.690 align:start position:0% the United States you're saying that that<00:19:11.260> if<00:19:12.260> China<00:19:12.560> suffers<00:19:12.980> the<00:19:13.100> u.s.<00:19:13.310> suffers 00:19:13.690 --> 00:19:13.700 align:start position:0% that if China suffers the u.s. suffers 00:19:13.700 --> 00:19:15.820 align:start position:0% that if China suffers the u.s. suffers there<00:19:14.030> is<00:19:14.120> no<00:19:14.270> question<00:19:14.600> both<00:19:15.020> sides<00:19:15.410> lose 00:19:15.820 --> 00:19:15.830 align:start position:0% there is no question both sides lose 00:19:15.830 --> 00:19:19.090 align:start position:0% there is no question both sides lose right<00:19:16.460> well<00:19:17.300> Ian<00:19:17.750> says<00:19:17.990> there's<00:19:18.170> questions<00:19:18.350> no 00:19:19.090 --> 00:19:19.100 align:start position:0% right well Ian says there's questions no 00:19:19.100 --> 00:19:22.150 align:start position:0% right well Ian says there's questions no no<00:19:19.340> if<00:19:20.180> I<00:19:20.390> heard<00:19:20.690> him<00:19:20.930> correctly<00:19:21.290> and<00:19:21.800> maybe<00:19:22.040> I 00:19:22.150 --> 00:19:22.160 align:start position:0% no if I heard him correctly and maybe I 00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:24.250 align:start position:0% no if I heard him correctly and maybe I didn't<00:19:22.520> if<00:19:22.790> I<00:19:22.940> heard<00:19:23.150> him<00:19:23.330> correctly<00:19:23.690> he<00:19:24.050> said 00:19:24.250 --> 00:19:24.260 align:start position:0% didn't if I heard him correctly he said 00:19:24.260 --> 00:19:26.640 align:start position:0% didn't if I heard him correctly he said it's<00:19:24.500> not<00:19:24.560> going<00:19:24.830> to<00:19:24.980> happen<00:19:25.220> in<00:19:26.000> that<00:19:26.150> case 00:19:26.640 --> 00:19:26.650 align:start position:0% it's not going to happen in that case 00:19:26.650 --> 00:19:29.020 align:start position:0% it's not going to happen in that case obviously<00:19:27.650> if<00:19:28.040> something<00:19:28.580> doesn't<00:19:28.760> happen 00:19:29.020 --> 00:19:29.030 align:start position:0% obviously if something doesn't happen 00:19:29.030 --> 00:19:30.970 align:start position:0% obviously if something doesn't happen then<00:19:29.420> there's<00:19:29.630> no<00:19:29.810> consequence<00:19:30.380> right<00:19:30.590> so<00:19:30.770> is 00:19:30.970 --> 00:19:30.980 align:start position:0% then there's no consequence right so is 00:19:30.980 --> 00:19:33.250 align:start position:0% then there's no consequence right so is that<00:19:31.160> is<00:19:31.310> that<00:19:31.370> what<00:19:31.580> you<00:19:31.700> said<00:19:31.910> yeah<00:19:32.660> but<00:19:33.080> but 00:19:33.250 --> 00:19:33.260 align:start position:0% that is that what you said yeah but but 00:19:33.260 --> 00:19:35.170 align:start position:0% that is that what you said yeah but but if<00:19:33.560> they<00:19:33.620> were<00:19:34.100> to<00:19:34.160> happen<00:19:34.730> I<00:19:34.820> think<00:19:34.850> both 00:19:35.170 --> 00:19:35.180 align:start position:0% if they were to happen I think both 00:19:35.180 --> 00:19:36.820 align:start position:0% if they were to happen I think both sides<00:19:35.450> would<00:19:35.660> okay<00:19:36.110> I'm<00:19:36.200> glad<00:19:36.320> we<00:19:36.560> could<00:19:36.710> bring 00:19:36.820 --> 00:19:36.830 align:start position:0% sides would okay I'm glad we could bring 00:19:36.830 --> 00:19:38.530 align:start position:0% sides would okay I'm glad we could bring that<00:19:37.070> discussion<00:19:37.550> to<00:19:37.580> such<00:19:37.790> clarity<00:19:38.060> on<00:19:38.420> that 00:19:38.530 --> 00:19:38.540 align:start position:0% that discussion to such clarity on that 00:19:38.540 --> 00:19:40.420 align:start position:0% that discussion to such clarity on that point<00:19:38.780> because<00:19:39.140> thank<00:19:39.890> you<00:19:40.040> because<00:19:40.310> that 00:19:40.420 --> 00:19:40.430 align:start position:0% point because thank you because that 00:19:40.430 --> 00:19:42.310 align:start position:0% point because thank you because that concludes<00:19:40.970> debate<00:19:41.330> on<00:19:41.570> this<00:19:41.900> third 00:19:42.310 --> 00:19:42.320 align:start position:0% concludes debate on this third 00:19:42.320 --> 00:19:45.220 align:start position:0% concludes debate on this third resolution<00:19:42.800> the<00:19:43.790> US<00:19:44.030> and<00:19:44.240> China<00:19:44.270> will<00:19:45.020> both 00:19:45.220 --> 00:19:45.230 align:start position:0% resolution the US and China will both 00:19:45.230 --> 00:19:47.190 align:start position:0% resolution the US and China will both lose<00:19:45.560> the<00:19:45.890> trade<00:19:46.100> war 00:19:47.190 --> 00:19:47.200 align:start position:0% lose the trade war 00:19:47.200 --> 00:19:52.140 align:start position:0% lose the trade war 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